If Cheyenne Does Sub-60, Is 55 Possible?, Musings on RTW Limits Options

[Guest Anarchist Wetass_*]

If Cheyenne puts up decent average speeds for the next week, she has a very good chance of becoming the first sailboat to sail all the way around the globe in under 60 days. Here's the math: Cheyenne has 7 days to sail about 2500 miles. That means Fossett and his team have to squeeze just 350 miles a day out of their battered boat, which is an average of less than 15 knots (click here for all the numbers). They routinely cruise at 18-20 in decent wind (and just sailed 430 miles in the last 24 hours), so this all comes down to the weather, and ("thank-you Neptune") the weather is cooperating big-time, with a low setting up to give them good running all the way home. The hard part will be judging how much stress the boat is under and avoiding a catastrophic breakdown. If they survive and nail 60 days it will be an incredible achievement (particularly given all the breakdowns), sort of like breaking the 4-minute mile barrier.

How long would a 60-day number hold up?

Is 55 achievable with perfect (Francis Joyon-like) weather and a newer maxi-cat like Bruno Peyron's Orange?

Is 50 days even conceivable, maybe in a Parlier-like boat?

Tim Zimmermann
http://www.wetasschronicles.com

[MauganNacra20]

Whether or not its possible remains to be seen, however there are people crazy enough to try. (I'd like to be one of those people) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

If the numbers we saw from the parlier cat are correct, then I think you could see a 55 day journey. Although I'm not sure I'd trust a planing boat through the Southern Ocean.

[nroose]

It would be interesting to see what the models at M&M and Gilles Ollier say about optimum total time to do the trip.

Hey, I have just been looking at the Jules Verne stuff. It seems especially ironic to me that Fossett is not included in the Jules Verne, since he is also a ballooner and some of the other Jules Verne novels are about ballooning.

Does anyone know of an email address where we can send letters requesting that Cheyenne gets Jules Verne status?

[explenture]

I think the current generation can do 55 days with more reliability. It's going to take something that's no so displacement oriented to crack 50 though. My Take

[nroose]

It seems to me that the Parlier cat would have a hard time getting enough supplies aboard for 50 or 55 days, no?

[MauganNacra20]

like we say here in the state nroose:

"I'd like to super-size it"

[Essex]

A fresh approach is needed to go sub 50. Perhaps a heavilly optimized Mac26X ?

[SW Dropout]

When you think about some of the "off days" that Cheyenne had on this trip -- being slowed by the main headboard ripping out, some bad weather turning the corner, slower speeds in the Doldrums, it's not hard to imagine that if everything held together perfectly that they could have done it in 55, let alone one of the newer boats. That's a huge and perhaps unreasonable "if" of course, but it's possible.

[Mike]

55 days is very possible. Cheyenne has already lost a few days in
this trip due to breakage. So if things went close to perfect I would
be a low 50's is possible.

My guess is that we're going to see a disaster happen first. Just my
opinion but these guys are flying around the Southern Ocean bascially
hoping they don't hit a berg or growler. Yeah they got radar but these
things don't always show up on radar and with the speeds they're
travelling...

This all reminds me of the tradegy that happened on Everest 5 or
so years ago. Climbing Everest almost became routine and you could
literally buy your way to the top. I'm worried that these Jules Verne
attempts are heading down the same path and a huge crash and burn
is on the horizon.

Hope I'm wrong.

[Fritz]

Slap a couple beams inbetween 2 Mac26x I think it could be done in less than 50 days. Just think finished befor you started

[Guest Anarchist GL Sailor_*]

Unless global warming throws a big curve, weather appears to be the limitation. In the Southern Ocean, how fast do systems move? Even if you can hook into and ride a single system, how fast does it go? For Playstations Translant, they rode a single system and averaged over 25kts.

What would be the cumulative time for a JV if one added up the fastest times for the legs comprising the route. Any boat any year, just connect the dots around the world and see what the time is. This would weed out adverse weather and breakdowns. Does anyone here have this info, my guess is that it would still be over 55 days which would indicate a next generation boat is needed.

[Guest Anarchist Wetass_*]

Ah, but even if you got perfect weather can you honestly weed out breakdowns? Not a single JV has gotten around without slowing for repairs (it's just the nature of light, fast boats). Bruno Peyron likes to say RTW records bids average about a breakdown every day and a half.

So here's where I am:

Fossett is going to hold two of the three biggest sailing records (transatlantic and RTW) for at least a couple years. If he goes under 60 on this attempt, that, along with his sub-5 day transat, will be two monster marks that will be difficult to break without a lot of luck with weather.

He would love to nail the 24 hour record and hold all three at the same time. But my guess is that Cheyenne is going to be such a wreck, the price of getting her in running shape again will convince him to put her on the block and just go off flying.

Tim

[Guest Anarchist I want a Phuket Sport 8_*]

It seems to me that Peyrons cat (Orange II) wasnt the super quick beast that it was hailed to be - they had some good weather but never averaged days any quicker than Cheyenne. Also call the reliability question - will it really hold together as well as Cheyenne has? Cheyenne is one of the most abused boats on the oceans yet she keeps taking it, a tribute to Melvin and Morelli on their design. Club Med almost didn't finish The Race, she was in pieces by the end. Have the Frogs made a mess of an expensive boat?

[Jake]

Orange II didn't really get much of a chance before bits starting coming off the hulls. One of her biggest design assets is the tremendous amount of freeboard. The freeboard will come into play where she has yet to travel in the southern ocean. Even Cheyenne's mighty 10' freeboard became a limitation while her rear beam was constantly smacking waves and waves were blasting the cockpit causing bodily harm to the crew. For days, Fossett and crew were limiting boat speed due to wave / freeboard issues.

Orange II also appears to have a much more forward daggerboard placement which would help to achieve a more neutral helm under spinnaker. It also appears that this turned out to be a real bitch upwind and reaching w/o chute - but this could be an indication of a rudder system design issue.

[Guest Anarchist Wetass_*]

Well, Fossett's not holding back. In fact, he's pouring it on and gunning for 58 days:

"The weather outlook is excellent. We hope to hook up with the leading edge of a Low pressure system midday on Thursday and ride it to the finish at Ouessant. If the forecast holds, we hope to score 4 consecutive 500 mile days and arrive on Monday afternoon 5 April.

Our stated goal has been to break the 64 day 8 hour record of Orange, but our secret ambition has been to crack 60 days - which we believe is the potential of these maxi-multihulls. Now we find there is even the prospect of a 58 day time. We have increased confidence in the quality of the shipboard repairs of the forestay, mast and forward beam. We are going to crank up the speeds and go for a strong finish. " Steve Fossett

Tim

[Guest Anarchist GL Sailor_*]

I wonder if Steve is just trying to build some drama and gain more publicity. This email will seem pretty silly if in fact they blow something up in the next few days.

[Lost in Translat...]

What we haven't talked in terms of newer vs older designs is Geronimo and other tri's. It seemed fast and possibly easier to sail at the beginning of their attempt. Will new mega tri's be required to break the new records (and hopefully, knock on wood, Cheyenne's new RTW)?

[Guest Anarchist Wetass_*]

Just from observation (no hard numbers) over a couple of years my impression is that:

1) The first-generation Ollier cats are faster than Cheyenne in terms of acceleration and top-end speed.
2) Cheyenne/Playstation is the king of the first generation when it comes to maintaining high daily averages, which translates into superior record-breaking ability
3) Geronimo seems surprisingly similar to the cats in terms of performance. There has yet to be a head-to-head Geronimo (tri) vs. cat duel in light air (the Atlantic), where the tri is supposed to be superior; or a head to head in heavy air running conditions (the Southern Ocean), where the cats are supposed to be superior. So it's hard to gauge the relative strengths of the boats. But Geronimo's only measurable victory over the cats is that Geronimo still holds the Ushant-Equator record. Cheyenne has topped the RTW segment records Geronimo put up last year, and was running even or ahead for the first half of the current RTW attempts, when both boats had very good weather. So the cats are holding their own. And if you look at who holds what records, Geronimo is practically invisible.
4) Orange II is totally unproven, but seemed a hair faster than the existing generation in terms of the daily runs she was able to put up in varied conditions before her fairing problem. There is obviously a lot of work still to do on the boat to dial it in. But if I had to bet, it will be Orange II, if any boat, that starts dominating the record breaking game and replacing Cheyenne's name in the record books.

How's that for sheer, totally unscientific, speculation?

Tim

[MauganNacra20]

well out of the allotment of drunk monkeys on this board, I think you're the best qualified to make gross speculations on this matter Tim.

(btw can I get my book signed? (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) )

</brown-nose>

[charm]

Slap a couple beams inbetween 2 Mac26x I think it could be done in less than 50 days. Just think finished befor you started

Used to be something that exactly like that in Newport Beach. More like one MAc26 cut in half with beams between the halves, but, nonetheless, I think that it's already been done.

[Stiffler's Mom]

Sail a Mac Gregor 65 to Hawaii and you will never mention the M-Word again......

[explenture]

Here's info on combining the best time for each leg

To Equator Geronimo 153 hrs Note: Cheyenne 45 hours slower
to Good Hope Cheyenne 233 hours
to Cape Leeuwin Cheyenn 183 hours
to Cap Horn Orange 307 hours Cheyenne 31 hours slower
Equator Return Cheyenne 251 hours
Equator Finish Orange 268 hours

1395 Hours or 58 days 3 hours

[thirty three]

Terminal velocity will be reached.., it is just a question of when.., but that is what drives the innovation in our sport.., and that is why we love it.., it is cool to sail your boat as fast as you can.., and it is cool to use the tools that the innovation of such ventures has trickled down to the market.., to achieve that speed.

Be it a dinghy, multihull, monohull.., class, rule or open.., we all benefit.

Cool,
thirty three

[SR CHIEF (RET)]

Given perfect weax, and no gear failures, it seems that Peyron could do 55 days.

[thirty three]

.., I believe that sixty-foot multihulls will have trouble running in Southern Ocean seas.., especially cross-seas.., failure when pushed, as proven by the ORMA boats would limit potential.

Any input for our Naval Architecture Fraternity?

Peace,
thirty three