[7.9 sailor]

NWS Experimental Wind/Wave shows WSW 5 at 2000 (EDT) Fri. Could be a drifter this year!

[Chuck D.]

Too early to say yet ... check out the local forecast discussions here. There is alot of divergence in the model runs and the timing/placement of an upper level low later in the week could mean the difference between tranquility and something closer to armageddon on both lakes this weekend.

[rob-john]

Chuck D., on Jun 21 2004, 11:41 AM, said:

There is alot of divergence in the model runs and the timing/placement of an upper level low later in the week could mean the difference between tranquility and something closer to armageddon on both lakes this weekend.

Hey Chuck, Did you have to use the word armageddon to describe the weather? I'm wondering if I should start barfing now, or wait for the race.

[Fritz]

I think we will be sitting under the effects of the high with WSW. we are doing the 2X2 on thur. The forcast I saw is 15-25 WSW swiching to N 10- 15 late should be nice Delevery conditions for boats coming to the party. Still a long way off considering its olny mon.

[Zac]

Even the weather forecast for later today can't be trusted....

[From the Helm]

Compared to last few years, lake is COLD. Time to don the ski clothes once again this year. Not a chance of a repeat of 2002 with shorts all night.

Wed night could suck, rain, 50's, wind from WSW.

Then again it's only Monday so it's likely to all change!

Sail Fast.

[Grinder]

From the Helm, on Jun 21 2004, 02:51 PM, said:

Sail Fast.

......Drink Hard!

[Iceman22]

I know it is pretty far out still but Accuweather shows good wind from the NNW in Milwaukee and WNW in Grand Haven blowing between 12-16 gusting to 27mph for Friday night. Sounds like it could be a good ride. A bit cold but it is a short race and if you wear the right gear you'll be fine. I am not worried about the Tripp Cup on Wednesday since I can't make it. That one could be cold and wet. not much fun.

[7.9 sailor]

Still looks like a drifter to me........
5-10 wnw not building 'till 3am Sat.

[Chuck D.]

Forecast model outputs at this point are pretty speculative owing to their lack of skill with the type of system that's going to spin up in the next few days. One model may very well say 5 knots wnw (assumes the upper level low will either shear or move by far enough to the north to not overly affect the weather on mid-lake MI), while the next has surface winds gusting to 27 (assumes the upper level low will exert more effect near the surface). Compounding this is that the boundary layer gets a little strange (lot less surface friction) over the lakes and can easily provide a set-up that allows mid level winds to mix down in some BIG gusts, AND that the models don't explicitly determine the effects of the highly non-linear processes involved in the type of short wavelength mid-level waves that can fire up in these systems. Think waves crashing on a beach as opposed to more tranquil laminar flow -- the models do their analytical dynamics calcs with homogeneous layers and then parameterize the effects of the non-linear dynamics. Sometimes they get pretty close, other times its a total miss in either direction.

Last night's GFS run has the UL low maybe pulling out a bit quicker than previously, leaving things a bit calmer than they were looking yesterday. Still at 850 mb, it calls for WNW winds closer 30 knots ... with surface winds of 5-10 ... but will an unforecasted shortwave or two rotate through overnight and lead to dramatically different conditions? Maybe.

I suggest waiting for Thursday night's ETA model run with its higher grid resolution to make the call. In the meantime, here is a snippet from the DTW forecast discussion from this morning:

Quote

LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
VORTICES/SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS COLD CORE REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO THE EXTREME BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

....

BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETA/GFS BY THURSDAY. WILL BE TAKING A
COMPROMISE AND CARRY 50 POPS THROUGH THE DAY. 00Z CANADIAN SEEMS TO
SUPPORT A COMPROMISE...AS SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
(MUCH WEAKER THAN THE GFS HOWEVER). ANTICIPATING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LINGER OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY...AS THE COOL AIR FINALLY FILTERS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
(IN A MODIFIED STATE HOWEVER).

[dyslexic dog]

Chuck D, are you doing the Queens? Come down the south finger at SSYC and look for the rubber chicken on the back stay. 7.9 and I will buy ya a beer or scotch or JD and pick your brain. It is always nice to talk with someone who is edgumakated.

[elevationsailing]

Iceman it certainly is an easy decision based on what is happening in GR on Thursday night!!! I would take warm dry land and cold cocktails with beautiful ladies around me over a cold wet ride to dairy land... Hope you can make the Queens Cup with us???

[From the Helm]

Chuck D,
What say you about the weather tonight.
Winds will veer to West before finish.
Might not die out in the AM like it usually does.
Will the storms be a precursor to the winds going West from SW?
Definitely a meteorologists race tonight!
l8r,

[Chuck D.]

This one is going to be a tough call. By now (Wednesday morning), we should have a pretty clear view of what's going to happen Friday night on the trip from Milwaukee to Grand Haven -- but we don't.

First the good news: the deep upper level low that earlier in the week was forecast to be centered in the vicinity of the straits is now progged (by both ETA and GFS) to be further north and east, with its center over James Bay. This should lessen its direct influence on the region.

However, its a strong 'cold core' system and the temperature differences between this thing and the rest of the ambient atmosphere, along with the vorticity dynamics (a big air mass spinning and translating) set up a strong so-called 'baroclinic' zone ... the wind flows faster and the whole thing (over tens or even hundreds of thousands of square miles) becomes unstable such that a little ripple in the flow can quickly amplify into shortwaves bringing, to put it mildly, unsettled conditions. These shortwaves set up a coupled trough-ridge system, that as it rotates around the low can cause the wind to go SW as it approaches and then NW to W as it passes. Got moisture? Add rain. Got additional mid-level instability and moisture? Add thunderstorms and all the good stuff that comes with them.

Here's the deal: the forecast offices in Green Bay, Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Detroit mention (or dance around) the potential for 'unresolved shortwaves' (i.e. shortwave systems that the models can't predict because either the model initializations didn't pick them up and/or their just too chaotic for the models to be able to accurately predict) Friday evening into Saturday. If none develop in the region of the race, then the surface model forecasts can be considered reasonable indicators. However, if/when a shortwave rotates through -- then look the weather to be somewhat to dramatically different. In the mid-level of the atmosphere (500 mb) over central Lk. Michigan the winds are going to be cranking for this time of year (50 to 80 knots out of the WNW) from this afternoon through to Sunday morning, and they'll be at their strongest right around race start. If shortwaves are going to develop anytime in the next 5 days or so, they're most likely during the overnight period from sunset Friday into Saturday morning.

So what do the model predict for wind Friday night into Saturday on Lake Michigan?

The GFS has the winds WSW ~10 kt off MKX at start time (2100GMT), then veering to NW and getting lighter (~5-8 kt) overnight, then returning to SW 5-10 around dawn.

The ETA calls for SW 8-10 kt at the start, backing to S and slightly stronger (12-14 kt) as you head out into the lake, then building a little more (14-16 kt) and veering SW by 0600GMT, then veering further to WSW-W and diminishing back to ~8-12 by 1200GMT, and then getting light (6-8 kt) and a bit north or west by 1500GMT.

I think the variability in the winds that these models are indicating are really down in the noise of model validity at this point -- your results will vary.

Neither model calls for much in the way of precipitable water in the air mass overhead during the race, so any shortwaves that do rotate through *probably* won't produce much in the way of rain, etc.

I'll do an update tomorow, if anyone is interested. FYI, sources for this are the local forecast discussions, the NCAR forecast model product site (
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/) and the NOAA ARL READY site (http://www.arl.noaa....ready/cmet.html).

I'm not doing the Queen's Cup ... maybe someday I'll get a ride for that one, instead I'm doing the forecast for another event starting on Lake Huron Saturday and then going fishing off Harbor Beach, MI, Sat A.M. Thats why I'm following the WX this weekend.

[JOD]

Keep the info coming Chuck!! Much Appreciated!!

[explenture]

QC WX THOUGHTS

[Chuck D.]

The Torrensen discussion (link above) looks pretty sound to me, though the ETA has picked up a shortwave scheduled to rotate through the race area between 7pm CDT and midnite CDT. It looks to be a pretty weak wave and will likely just cause the winds to back to the south and build slightly as it approaches and then veer to the northwest and abate some as it passes ... but to play it safe, be sure to take a listen or two to your NOAA weather radio during the evening hours.

Good luck and fair sailing to all!

[From the Helm]

THanks Chuck D.
Wed night race was a hoot, big air in those storms, know idea how big it blew as most wind indicators I spoke to said their instruments were freaked out, including ours.
The ETA models were pretty welll spot on from what we saw in the macro, but the storms were definitely the biggest influence on the winds "on the scene."

Tonight will be cold.

Wind directions will be a real crapshoot for mid lake from what I can tell (which isn't much!!!)

Might get one more post today.

From the bar at SSYC

l8r,

[Chuck D.]

One final thought before I check out for the day, that touches on the area of tactics covered by the Torrensen discussion ... probably worth what you're paying for it, so caveat emptor:

Given the shortwave passage that I discussed in my earlier post with its approach marked by a backing of the wind to the SW followed by a veer to the NW, if you're sailing hot angles and want to keep it hot by heading south of the rhumb line during the shift to the SW, the subsequent veer to the NW may put you in good position to 'keep it hot' on a jibe that takes you back to the rhumb line.

Hope everyone has a fun and safe ride. Keep me in mind if you're looking for crew for next year's race. :)

[JOD]

We tried delivery from Chciago at 9am on Thursday. Turned around and went to the bar. Left again at 6pm was an OK ride wind shifted to the west and the 4 foot seas went damn near flat.


Our whole race was chute, VMG, Jib top, Assy, then back to ZMG for the finish.saw true WA as south as 120, backing to 150. We finished at just before 2am, and it looked to be clocking north by then, but who can really tell in the river.

[From the Helm]

JOD, we stayed out until the wind went to 280. Very good thing too as we were counting on that shift!

Finishing before 2:00 AM means you made last call, way to go. You win?

Wasn't as cold as expected, wind was stronger than predicted and more South than predicted on the lake. Had to be very patient waiting for that persistent shift to head us into the finish line--bit nerve wracking.

Great fun, though the Tripp Memorial on Wed was pretty memorable too.

L8r

[rob-john]

JOD, on Jun 26 2004, 01:32 PM, said:

We tried delivery from Chciago at 9am on Thursday. Turned around and went to the bar. Left again at 6pm was an OK ride wind shifted to the west and the 4 foot seas went damn near flat.


Our whole race was chute, VMG, Jib top, Assy, then back to ZMG for the finish.saw true WA as south as 120, backing to 150. We finished at just before 2am, and it looked to be clocking north by then, but who can really tell in the river.

JOD,

What boat were you on to finish at 2:00?
I missed last call by an hour... but plenty of beer on board!

I have to agree with FTH above.... the Tripp was really a trip!
We were VERY short handed, but still made it through and did quite
well in my mind.

Great race to everyone!

Oh yeah, I gotta say that SSYC is one hell of a classy club. One of their members ferried crew back and forth to West marine Friday. I was very impressed. Kudos to SSYC!!!!

[dyslexic dog]

SSYC has always been a class act. OK, lets hear who says what for wind on the Tripp. It is always fun to see what everyone thought they were in and how they handled it. By the way, the rubber chicken was again good luck, 1st in class on the Tripp and 2nd in Queens(Lost to Bantu again)

[Zac]

We took 1st in our section on the tripp as well, 3rd in the queen's. Baccant took the cake in our section, though we did beat them last year.

Our wind instruments went crazy before that storm, I was really worried they were shot. Strange that it happened to quite a few other boats as well. I would estimate it around 50-55 as we were starting to get some spray off the water. Full main and #1 when the wind hit. Suprisingly we only ripped out one batten pocket and had a couple holes to patch on the 1.

[Platu 25]

So, how about some results?