ProaSailor

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Everything posted by ProaSailor

  1. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    That's ~2,174 nm. / 14 = 155 nm./day = 6.5 knot average, port tack the whole way, much of it a beam to broad reach. That's what I'm talking about !
  2. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    tracker: http://www.gsattrack.com/Anonymous/svnereida
  3. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    blog: Day14 Tues-Wed 16-17th October 2018 Solar panels' power input doubled! By Jeanne Socrates , on 17 October 2018 20:23 1600 PDT Wednesday - Position: 27.833,-125.775 - Speed: 3.9 knots - Heading: 187 Distance to 10N, 130W: ~1095 nm. at bearing 193. Thirty-nine degrees to starboard of rhumbline. Cosine(193 - 154) = 78% of boat speed toward The Horn, 22% toward her ITCZ target WP. (at heading 187... 84% toward The Horn) 242 nm. further to Horn Wp than rhumbline:
  4. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    I perfectly understand being forced to tack but she seems to be favoring a dead-downwind style the last few days, which is slow in 10 knots of wind, with headings all over the place except towards the mark. I got very spoiled thirty years ago playing with Dick Newick's 50' trimaran Moxie - an entirely different animal - and it's difficult to adjust to the far slower performance expectations of Jeanne's monohull. It weighs twice as much and is substantially shorter LWL (32' vs. ~46'?) , though has surprisingly similar sail area. Ah, well... I'll try to shut up for a few days and just see what happens. Cheers.
  5. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    It's not a scenic tour either. At her current heading (200 degrees, 45 degrees from the rhumbline) and speed (3.9 knots), it will take 86 days (January 11) to reach that Cape Horn "Approach Waypoint" (-56,-76). Cosine(45) * 3.9 knots = 2.76 knots toward that waypoint, or ~71% of boat speed.
  6. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    She has apparently been drifting for ~3 hours? Headings at the tail of this track are 281, 284 and finally 287 degrees. Going backwards. At 6.5 knots, she would make the ~1200 miles to the ITCZ in eight days but at this rate now, there isn't much point in looking too far ahead at the weather. At a four knot average (or less?) toward the Horn, the "event window" for route planning becomes very short, since anything 1200 miles away will change long before you get there. Cosine(238 - 155) = 12% of boat velocity toward the Horn, 88% sideways.
  7. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    The Windy Rain layer is interesting to watch (click 'Play' button at lower left) over the ten day forecast period; Jeanne is ~1,200 nm. away from the edge of the zone at 10N lat.: https://www.windy.com/distance?rain,13.689,-112.192,5 I would be looking for the fastest way to sail through this (near my rhumbline), spots where wind from both sides meet instead of gaps where there is no wind at all. https://www.windy.com/distance?13.005,-100.986,5
  8. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Oops! Make that Tuesday... Update: 1300 Tuesday, Position: 29.304,-124.794, Speed: 1.9 knots, Heading: 183 degrees Seems to be sailing a deeper angle (slower, DDW) than the wind appears to allow (port tack on that rhumbline). VMG to Cape Horn "Approach Waypoint" ('CHAWp' at -56,-76) is the cosine of the difference in angle between current heading and heading to 'CHAWp' times her current velocity. Pedantic, I know... but the cosine of 78 degrees is 0.208 or 20% of velocity toward the Horn and 80% to changing lanes (going sideways).
  9. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    0800 Monday, Position: 29.582,-124.558, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 233 degrees - That's 78 degrees off her current rhumbline heading of 155. Next weekend:
  10. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    1700 Monday, Jeanne's position: 30.53,-123.93, Speed: 5.8 knots, Heading: 190 degrees Has anyone ever been near enough to see this place, or heard of it? "Ile de Clipperton", ~300 nm. E of her rhumbline, just south of the line of squalls. Google map, satellite view only, no name: 10.30 lat,-109 point 22 long (appears as "-109dogballs"? WTF - is someone being funny?) Found on Windy: https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-25-00,10.302,-109.216,15 1,380 nm. W of Costa Rica, 670 nm. WSW of Acapulco Obstacles ahead: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=18.1&lon=-104.5&wxstn=0&satellite=1&hur=1 Jan 1979 is four decades! That's plenty to make it worthwhile. A massive treasure of data.
  11. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Animated streamlines are a local/client/browser interpretation of GRIB files, so weighted-average data delivered as a GRIB file would look exactly as it does now for forecast data. Except the timeline on the bottom would allow choice of month instead of day/time - or rather, in addition to day/future (forecast) or any archived date/time (past), which would be the detailed basis for the averaged data. Any given month could have "averaged" summary data broken down into ranked percentiles, like the wind rose arrows... For me, the Windy-style gradient graphic presentation is immediately accessible to the untrained eye. The many layers provide detail, along with the vast number of data points in modern data sets compared to collection methods of yore. Archived historical GRIB data is a logical extension to Windy's forecast UI features, which are superlative.
  12. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Boat speed helps! Even so, Jeanne managed to avoid the worst at Cape Mendocino by getting 250 miles offshore (longitude) in only ~500 nm. of latitude, with her 24 hour average speed peaking at 6.5 knots (~156 nm. per day for two days). At that speed or better, with satellite weather data and forecasts now pretty good for at least a few days (up to a week with caveats), one can actively choose between sailing options. I've likely heard of pilot charts before and wonder if they evolved from the historic work of Matthew Fontaine Maury, who's story I remember from somewhere: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Fontaine_Maury Time for an updated, techy version of collecting and displaying historical weather patterns, esp. recent history. If Windy could replay weather data for any year/date in the past decade (or more)... then average and aggregate it by month for selected years, and present it as they do forecast data now... THAT would be super useful these days! Far superior to "averages was obtained from oceanographic and meteorologic observations over many decades during the late 18th and 19th centuries". Matthew Fontaine Maury would be delighted with the tools and data we have now. P.S. Found here: https://www.loc.gov/resource/g9111p.ct009519/ Pilot chart of the North Atlantic, 1857 - contributor: Matthew Fontaine Maury, with 5 degree "roses" of some sort:
  13. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    By advancing the date to October 20 (and remembering where the lat/long grid switch is - Menu | Settings), I found a pattern with the high centered at 33°S, 92°W, as described in the Pilot Chart notes, where the wind marker is located below. The image in the previous post for Monday, the 15th, shows a high ~1,000 nm. SE of there that almost disappears SW before materializing as below only five days later: https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-20-18,-25.046,-85.869,4,i:pressure,m:cKbadBQ I can see the southerly and SE trades - mostly from due east when south of 10S latitude. Getting to and through the ITCZ (now located between 5 and 10 degrees north latitude?) will be the near term focus, eh? She is now ~1,900 nm. from the equator - so first week of November to cross it? https://www.windy.com/distance?2018-10-20-18,16.236,-117.817,5,i:pressure
  14. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Visualizing wind patterns from the wind rose grid is eluding me... But these notes from page 1 of the PDF "NOVEMBER South Pacific Ocean Pilot Chart" indicate it will be much like October, but gentler as their days get longer.
  15. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    The green lines are labeled with number ranges like "10-15", "15-25" and "20-30". This is armchair sailing. We speculate, for fun and educational opportunities. Thank you for bringing my attention to the fine print: Would love to see her planned route continuously updated by the best available tech, and to see how it is done. I can imagine a Google Maps app that could become very useful for route evaluation and logging... Would help if Windy.com could display archived data to see years past - and to have a Pilot Chart layer.
  16. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    According to my best guess, her rhumbline now (to -56,-76) passes 466 nm. to the ENE of Easter Island, which is ~3,600 nm. away (a difference in heading of only ~7 degrees?). Pretty close, though very near the center of that high on the pilot chart. Would be nice to see the rhumbline plotted on a more detailed pilot chart image like this, at 200% in the PDF viewer, cropped near 130 longitude. And to see the green lines better that show wind speed and direction! Full .png image here (2.2 MB, 3655 x 2094 pixels): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-SMZhB3gLiQ2koZA0kPAMPXKXnAWnH-o/view?usp=sharing
  17. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Pilot chart, eh? I have some learning to do... I understand this pattern easily enough: The wind roses in your graphic will take some getting used to: Also here: https://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APC/Pub107/107nov.pdf
  18. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Of course! Shortest distance between two points. Looks like she is heading 152 degrees right now. The rhumbline is ~1,500 nm. away from Peru - that's not far enough? I'm not seeing significant adverse current or wind until approaching the coast of Chile. But hey, I've never been there. https://www.windy.com/-Currents-currents?currents,2018-10-21-18,-8.016,-83.408,4
  19. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    That would be an abrupt turn (jibe?), 68 degrees to starboard, from heading 117 (SE, blue line) to 185 (SSW, white line), 33 degrees past the rhumb line (yellow, heading 152 degrees)?
  20. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    "22 log entries" link at lower left of this page: http://mmsn-shiptrak.herokuapp.com/?callsign=kc2iov&filter=30&_m=f
  21. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    P.S. According to this GPS Visualizer tool: http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/calculators , her current heading of 117 degrees is 35 degrees east (to port) of the great circle route heading, which is ~152 degrees. I have no idea if it's her intention to stay near that shortest route? In addition to distance between positions every 24 hours, it would be interesting to log "Distance Made Good" toward a waypoint near the horn: -56,-70 (Google map), for example. The average of those numbers would yield a good ETA date. Come to think of it, she may want to aim for a point far west and south of that... Today, below:
  22. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    This is the great circle route and distance (6087 nm.) from her current position to Cape Horn. Weather tactics will prevail, of course. Perhaps early to mid December rounding the Horn at her current pace? Near the southern hemisphere's "summer solstice".
  23. ProaSailor

    Coolboats to admire

    Yep, looks like great fun to me: http://brooklinboatyard.com/toroa/ Good numbers on speed and weight, plush accommodations. Huge sails. TOROA Specifications LOA: 22.3 m (73 ft.) Beam: 6.1 m Displacement: 28 Tons Draft: 4.5 m Upwind Sail Area: 300 m2 (3,230 sq. ft.) Downwind Sail Area: 610 m2
  24. ProaSailor

    Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

    Saturday, 0700 California time (Day 10) Position: 33.6621,-127.18 (Google Map) (tracker), 444 nm. west of Pt. Fermin, San Pedro, ~20 nm. south of L.A. Heading: 125 degrees Speed: 5.8 knots Wind: NNW @ 14 knots, gusting to 18, waves are 7' @ 9 seconds https://www.windy.com/?34.809,-121.729,7,m:eBgacDq Note: pattern of Santa Ana winds on Sunday, originating in southern Utah and Nevada, blasting San Felipe (and Oxnard) on Monday, are fascinating! https://svnereida.com/blog blog: Day9 Thurs-Fri 11-12th October 2018 First squid on deck this morning! Too small to cook. blog: Day8 Wed/Thurs 10/11th October 2018 Overnight rain, sunny & cloudy day, rolling around still... blog: Day7 Tues-Wed 9-10th October 2018 430 ml WNW of San Francisco at midday Wed
  25. ProaSailor

    Sailing solo from Neah Bay down to San Fran

    She's 76, he's not.