bdu my apologies I missed this post. This may help you understand plus reconsider your view that I misrepresented the UK Governments COVID-19 response in your mind as follows:
My response which you have decided to ignore.
Leo replied to you indicating my post wasn't shit.(my emphasis)
Then your reply to Leo missing it would appear Leo's opening paragraph above.
The Video that believe cut to misrepresent the Governments response is in timeline below for 3 March.
Anyway that's enough so to your unanswered post above.
Firstly your 1st paragraph description of what you think happened in the UK did not happen. See below.
2nd para no one suggested a December shut down and you say the UK had little or no cases in December? First case (2 Chinese nationals) was 31 January.
Final para: What happened is timelined below and relies upon the scientific advice you refer which has been presented to the Government to inform their decision making. Whether they follow that advice is up the Government. You can find it all here on the UK Governments website SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - Covid-19
TIME LINE OF UK GOVT RESPONSE MEASURES (numbered in order #)
31 January: 1st Cases (2)
31 January - 29 February: Nothing for 1 Month.
22 February: Italy 1st Death.
29 February : #1 Handwashing.
Definition: A "mitigation strategy" focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping an epidemic growth while allowing "natural immunisation" to spread (herd immunisation is another term provide it is accompanied by immunisation which doesn't exist with COVID) to reduce peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection. So starting with hand washing, isolating those at risk etc.
1 March: #2 Testing Only Commences (no tracking contry to WHO advice)
3 March: #3 First Crisis Management Meeting or Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms (COBRA) Johnson was critisised for this delay.
3 March: Multi Cut Video in set of PM. One 3 March cut encouraging contact (hospital cut, this is first instance that the Government were following a "Mitigation/Herd Immunisation" strategy, but not stated. Second cut washing hands.
4 March: PM Press Conference confirming scientific advice is guiding UK Strategy Response #1 - Hand Washing.
5 March: 90 Cases Reported
5 March: Johnson appears on BBC Breakfast Show. One cut from the above compilation (see 3 March) to what appears to be the first row back on "Mitigation/Herd Immunisation" strategy (the famous "take it on chin" comment) and from a second cut, scientific advice was still pending. A third cut indicating a "suppression" strategy not needed (school closures).
The full 5 March BBC Breakfast Show interview upthread at post #788 courtesy of @LeoV) Note at beginning Johnson still shaking hands and laughing it off.
7 March: UK 1st Deaths (2) Italy 1st death 22 February, now 14 days later 233.
8 March: UK Testing Rate 350 persons per million.
8 March: Johnson still shaking hands. Only strategy in place is #1 of 29 February - Washing Hands.
9 March: Department of Health & Social Care Directive - Washing Hands Only Required.
10 March: 6th UK Death
10 March: PM address. Confirming there is no change to response of 29 February all based upon scientific advice. The first sign of nervousness appearing?
THIS IS NOW 6 WEEKS AFTER THE FIRST CASE IN THE UK & GOVT POLICY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR 2 WEEKS - WASH YOUR HANDS ONLY
11 March: The UK on receiving end of critisism from the WHO (but not named) about delay in testing/trace/isolate/treat and delay in enacting a "suppression" strategy over a "mitigation/herd immunisation" strategy with prospects if not enabled it would overwhelm respective health systems.
12 - 16 March: Most countries had closed their borders to foreign nationals. The UK an exception.
THURSDAY 12 MARCH AM: #2 This is the first time that symptoms are broadcast and the first time that "isolation of those at risk" is mentioned (despite it incorporated in "mitigation" strategy - see definition above). Hand washing is reinforced again.
THURSDAY 12 MARCH PM - THE SHIT HITS THE FAN
Just hours later after am fireside chat above with the Deputy Chief Medical Officer at the PM Daily Presser Briefing.
Contained in Video Compilation (bdu that you claimed is cut to misrepresent)
- I must level with you more families are going to loose loved ones before their time.
- This is the worst public health crisis for a generation
- This is a global pandemic and the number of cases is probably much higher than confirmed. (Note UK low testing rate)
Full 12 March Presser.
13 March: Updated Government Advice on Symptoms only. Nothing further.
13 March; Ditto PM. If symptoms now stay at home. Further changes can be expected in the next few weeks.
13 March: Ditto from the NHS.
Note: 13 March - Further changes can be expected in the next few weeks.
FRIDAY 14 MARCH: U-TURN STARTS - "MITIGATION" ABANDONED - NOW "SUPPRESSION" STRATEGY
The concept of "social distancing" appears got the first time. Bullet Point 5.
Definition: Suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family supplemented by cancelling mass gatherings, school and university closures and possibly non essential workplaces being closed. This is to reducing case numbers to low levels to and not overwhelm the health system.
Monday 16 March: #3 "Suppression Strategy" Formally Announced
Full 16 March Presser
18 March: The Government appears to only have just come to the realisation of what is unfolding.
Travel Restrictions Apply. Unlike other countries the UK only a voluntary restriction to non-essential travel. That remains current today.
18 March: UK Testing Program still lags behind most comparable countries with the exception of the US.
19 March: UK Death Rate by comparison. The UK tracking in line with Italy and Spain who are approximately two and one week ahead respectively.
19 March: UK 12 days after 1st death -144 Deaths. Italy (2 weeks ahead) 12 days after 1st death - 148 deaths.
1. The cut video did not misrepresent the UK Governments COVID-19 response. Arguably it understated the true position.
2. The UK Government even with the head start furnished by China, did nothing for the month of February or a full month after the first case was identified.
3. The UK only instigated at the beginning of March a partial "mitigation" strategy involving "hand washing" only for nearly two weeks up until 12 March. That was when symptoms and special treatment for those at risk were identified for the first time.
4. The "mitigation" strategy was formally abandoned on Monday 16 March and "suppression" measures introduced in the week ending 20 March. This occured following advice on Friday 13 March that any further changes would be weeks away.
5. The UK effectively dithered for 7 weeks as the pandemic unfolded and right at the critical stages very much like Italy. It has been left behind many other countries and with the prospect now of having to introduce harder measures with a commensurate impact upon the economy, than that would apply if it acted sooner.
6. As of today's date, the only comparable country who is arguably in worse position than the UK is the US.