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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  

Lark

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About Lark

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  • Location
    Ohio
  • Interests
    Small boats, water, wilderness, and those who travel far.

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1,965 profile views
  1. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    True and I have been watching the trends for a couple decades. Even if the number of people goes up more slowly than predicted available jobs need to grow even more rapidly, not shrink, or labor becomes a less valuable resource. It is a mobile resource in this interconnected world. Brexit and border walls are not changing that. The population may flatten out around 12 billion when those born today grow old. That means massive unrest and desperation are likely in the next few decades, even without water shortages or climate change dislocation. If your glass is half full you need to cover it and hoard it. The tax man has a straw and the unwashed masses have rocks.
  2. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Look at India and Africa. When I was a kid the books said we had less than 4 billion people. http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/2015-report.html The us ruling party is doing everything it can to encourage this,
  3. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Yet productivity has not risen much in years. I agree that seems about to change as three workers and five robots replace 15 workers. Yet we live in a world where it’s easier and safer to rob a bank virtually than with a gun, hospitals are held hostage by ransomware, and my antivirus software keeps me from wasting time on my home office desktop while malware or poorly designed interactions between programs slow it to a crawl. I have trouble believing unemployed programers wouldnt fight back, and underemployed mechanics wouldn’t do the high tech equivelant of adding sand to the grease. If vast swaths are made obsolete we can build new prisons or start a new war to consume them around the world. We can reduce the workweek or pay people not to work, but I cannot imagine that in a country whose leaders dream of privatizing social security. The only scenarios that don’t require forsight, compromise and skilled negotiation end in violence.
  4. backlash?

    I assume it can work like drug policies in factories, a great way to avoid workman’s comp claims. Test all injuries and fire violators. You don’t test everybody because you need labor. Keeps the number of reported injuries way down, I happened to sit in on a discussion between labor and middle management at a wedding, the disconnect was so huge it sounded like they worked for two different companies. An attractive blond from corporate had no idea that’s how policy worked in a rural factory.
  5. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Maybe it’s a different view by geography? Please explain your confidence. Paying people not to work is the very dynamic that Republicans exploit to gain power. Those that work are resentful of those that have no work, A friend worked as an outside contractor for a red state welfare office (the government outsourced labor to avoid benefits). She was very liberal until she was working through radiation therapy handing out benefits to people that showed up two hours late in pajamas to their eligibility meetings. Why crawl in the bilge looking for a leaky pipe in salt water with stray voltage if you can sail? Why risk an expensive machine in such a harsh environment if the ship owner has surplus labor units he can cut benefits to and force to work? Let the machines do the easy work that doesn’t void the warranty.
  6. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Bread and circuses. It has been tried but eventually fails. In come the barbarians.
  7. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Or they may delegate us (the surplus population) to those areas too harsh for expensive robotics.
  8. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Writers are already unable to write a new script. As much as I like Star Wars, its all sequels, rehashes of old comics, old classics, and more sequels. Harry Potter was the rare exception.
  9. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Like IT. Except the result is to throw it away and buy a new device. Of course there is only so much copper etc. One exciting new job of tomorrow will be helping robots mine the landfills.
  10. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    I’m sure that airplanes will retain a pilot for a few years. He will sit behind a wall of cellophane and if something goes wrong he has to break the seal to touch the buttons, He must than spend a week explaining why he overrode a machine. Truck drivers may actually be harder to automate but easier to accept psychologically. We already know index funds do better than active traders. Cashiers and clerks are being phased out, though I resist on principal. Boat making would surely be better if scale allowed automation, Boat repair is harder. Rolls Royce is actively designing automated ships, though I suspect a repair crew of independent contractors will still be onboard to minimize down time spent on maintenance. The captain will be shift workers onshore. Repair and retrofitting, lower management of those people (shift leaders), some design work and venture capitol seem to have the best future. Paying people not to work will only anger those changing the oil and unbolting the broken bits. I see a societ where a few feel important because they live well on ROI and chose the color. Some work hard without status to maintain and install. We can keep killing off the annoying in unnecessary war. If they cannot be trained to kill we will addict or arrest them,. That can only be maintained for a finite period.
  11. AI/ML and the future of non-work

    Your utopian view obviously doesn’t fit the current behavior of those with the most resources, so I reject it completely. You look at a bigger picture than I have entertained. Fascinating view. This topic can go so many directions. Sabotage seems easy since the house of circuit cards is precariously stacked already. Half the headaches on a given day are electronic devices not communicating and unintended consequences of upgrades. Identity theft or other cybercrime is a continual threat. Waze directed evacuating Californians into the fire since streets had no traffic. Imagine autonomous vehicles with passengers happily taking pictures for social media. The last couple would be a bit too real. Clearly society cannot survive bored frustrated people displaced by its own creations any time soon.
  12. Tax “Reform”

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/january/dissecting-falling-labor-force-participation-rate What’s your theory on why? Factors I can identify: As identified, age. My mom was downsized before the Bush Recession but able to call it early retirement. It didn’t used to be automatic for both spouses of middle class families to have to work. Disability. Many with health issues but no insurance or who lost insurance in a downsizing couldn’t afford COBRA or private, so they claimed disability. ACA helped some but wages were low enough there was no pull to ‘recover’. Grey economy, If the W2 economy in your skill set and geography provides shit hours for shit pay you work off the books, some people leave or reduce their workforce participation to make and raise babies. It seems especially easy for military spouses since they don’t have a multi thousand dollar medical deductible. I don't know if full or part time high school and college students are counted as eligible workers. Do you? Same for prison, Prison is big business and drugs are everywhere. As a result many people are unable to work. Most places won’t hire ex cons,
  13. Climate news

    It will make good sailing in a few years with the long summer days without need for AC. Winter will still require haul out.
  14. backlash?

    A defense contractor you’ve heard of is selectively firing in fear of a government shutdown. They fired four people today. One was for sex in the workplace, I’m not sure if he was on break. Coworkers were wondering why the woman didn’t get fired too..
  15. Trump Judicial Picks Dropping Like Flies

    I googled Desiree Rogers. Guilty of considering the presidency a brand, being too social and getting upity. Is there more? Hardly seems worth mentioning in light of the corrupt political process. After Flynn and the rest it sounds like the guy with unpaid parking tickets trying to establish cred in prison.