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1,213 F'n Saint

About Lark

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    Super Anarchist

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    Small boats, water, wilderness, and those who travel far.

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  1. Lark

    Will he go quietly?

    I’m sure you’re right. He wouldn’t involve a foreign power in the US election. He wouldn’t ignore his buddy putting targets on US troops for political benefit. He wouldn’t repeatedly lie about a public health crises. It stands to reason he’ll decide to obey the Constitution this time, We know his party has great faith in his judgement and always backs him when it counts.
  2. Preserved for next week.
  3. Lark

    Michigan's starting to tank.

    They still allow visitors in Texas hospitals? In Indiana, and Ohio no visitors from curbside drop off to release, even for negative patients.
  4. Lark

    Why we as a country (USA) are collectively screwed

    Great quotes today in red hat territory. ”When you test positive they ask you who you have been around. All those people are counted as positive too, That’s why there are so many cases.” ”It’s occurring in those places that had those black protests.”
  5. Lark


    IFR tries to include unexpected deaths like stroke, as my first quote shows. It ignores unexpected health consequences since it ignores morbidity. Assuming immunity lasts long enough to avoid getting reinfected the next wave, or at least makes the second round less likely to be fatal (unknown) the theoretical mortality rate is likely 3000-4000 / million. New Jersey tested this but social distancing slowed infection at 1700 deaths per million. Florida will likely further probe the limits, but improved treatments will move the goalposts.
  6. Lark


    My error, I used infection fatality rate but said case fatality rate IFR includes cases that aren’t recognized or diagnosed, and is the more meaningful metric here. That number is close to being known, though age and preexisting conditions affect it, Herd immunity is still a WAG. Calculating an accurate IFR is challenging in the midst of any outbreak because it relies on knowing the total number of people infected — not just those who are confirmed through testing. But the fatality rate is especially difficult to pin down for COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, says Timothy Russell, a mathematical epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. That’s partly because there are many people with mild or no symptoms, whose infection has gone undetected, and also because the time between infection and death can be as long as two months. Many countries are also struggling to count all their virus-related deaths, he says. Death records suggest that some of those are being missed in official counts. Now, numerous studies — using a range of methods — estimate that in many countries some 5 to 10 people will die for every 1,000 people with COVID-19. “The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge around 0.5–1%,” says Russell. These data from USA, Santa Clara, Italy and Germany suggest that many infections are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and thus do not come to medical attention and will not be accounted for in the case fatality rate and suggest infection fatality rates to around 0.5 %.
  7. Lark


    I missed that. Thanks. It looks on worldometers like their numbers are going down, I was wondering if their chief tabulator had taken ill. The predictions and some late night math in my head suggest they shouldn’t be at herd immunity yet, unless their death count is off by over a log scale- maybe 20 or 30x? Edit. Case fatality rate is currently guessed to be 0.5 to 1%. If we go with the lower number and assume herd immunity stops the outbreak with 60% infected, that would be 3000 deaths per million. They report just over 300. So the lowest theoretical fatality rate would be nearly a log scale higher then the number reported. Can somebody in a different time zone check my math? I realize their numbers make Florida look reliable, but it would be nice if somebody else would demonstrate the ceiling before the American South.
  8. At least we gave our allies some succor as refugees when we abandoned the fight. In Iraq we just left the poor bastards who helped and translated for our soldiers behind to be tortured and murdered. Which is worse?
  9. Lark

    Oh, my gosh. It's a tornado.

    Clearly much of what they taught in Kansas and Missouri public schools on tornado safety was pulled from somebody’s ass without any evidence or actual data. That, or the new recommendations are made by somebody eager to show how important their job is but also without knowing jack shit. Which do I believe?
  10. Lark

    Why we as a country (USA) are collectively screwed

    Did I guess the boat right?
  11. Lark

    Michigan's starting to tank.

    It’s not a permit for lemonaid, it’s a public health danger that could affect you or your family. It’s protecting your community from shutdown and yourself from quarantine. Reporting him is not being a Karen if you live in a country currently managing the virus. Without continued vigilance any victory is merely a respite and any province risks becoming Florida, Texas, South Carolina, If he has mild disease and so do the first couple people he infects, it may escape detection until multiple cases exist.
  12. Lark

    Oh, my gosh. It's a tornado.

    Thanks for that bit of reeducation. I wonder if we were burdened with bad advice, like the old tornado drills where they opened all the windows in school 'to equalize the pressure' before leading the docile sheep to the hallway to duck and cover. I don't know where some of the 'expert advice' comes from. Who didn't think the tornado would open all the windows, saving the teacher valuable time getting her kids to safety?
  13. Lark

    Oh, my gosh. It's a tornado.

    Drainage culverts are more common in flat country then bridges, especially when you get off the freeway. Flash floods aren't dangerously fast like they are in SoCal. The advice was always to get out of the truck and hunker down in the mud. I think the problem with vehicles is the risk of being impaled by flying debris if wearing the seat belt, and the risk of being mangled by the collision with the ground if not. I think the PNW is a fairly civilized spot to live and planning can mitigate mudslides. Cyclists there are surely superheroes. Any property in SoCal is guaranteed to see a quake sooner or later, if wildfires don't get it first. Most every spot in the gulf seems to get wiped out by hurricanes every few years. Many century old houses in Oklahoma or Kansas have never seen a tornado come close. They happen on occasion, but its a risk not a certainty like the hazards of living in other parts of the country.
  14. How many southern people spend much time outside in the heat? I've been to NC in the summer, and had to promise my GF never to drag her to an unairconditioned boat down there in June again. Why did we expect weather make a difference for those that live in HVAC controlled office buildings and go to parties in air conditioned homes? Air Conditioning may influence the geography of US cases almost as much as politics. Since the Midwest is baking in a heat wave of our own, that doesn't bode well for the next few weeks. Sunlight kills saliva protected COVID in about 7 minutes (15 minutes in the early morning or under clouds. That helps but doesn't eliminate the risk for a bunch of people clustered together at the beach or on the crowded deck of a boat. Add Fourth of July cookouts with shared condiment containers (even if outside) and we're in for a rough month or two.
  15. For perspective. This is the most useful map I've seen. Instead of circles by cluster size, which is meaningless when comparing urban vs rural, Nebraska vs Phoenix, this looks at relative risk of becoming an anti trump statistic. What are the odds the person standing next to you has just infected you? This comes close to answering that. Your own health status can help predict survival, hospitalization, etc, but virus load and luck enter the equation as well as excess pounds and other health issues. How the US ranks compared to other countries. If this defaults to the US hit the worldwide button on the left. How the US looks on a county level. Hot spots is an understatement.