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Abbreviated rules 07/28/2017
Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules. Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo. Warning and or timeout for a first offense. PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members. See above for penalties. Caveat: if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods. We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post. We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking. There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious. There is no standard, we will know it when we see it. If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining. Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious. Deal with it. Welcome to anarchy. If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to. They will be explained to you soon enough.
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DryArmour
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Not that they are not in serious jeopardy but the Warning Level of "5" on the map indicates the imminent arrival of hurricane force winds and not the Category level of the storm (CAT 4 is bad enough).
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Navigating the Keys Post Hurricane IRMA- If you are planning to make a trip by water down to the keys to either help out or take in supplies/evacuate the people please keep in mind: The obstacles, reefs, sandbars and channels have all likely changed. Some significantly. NEVER* make an approach at night. ALWAYS* run your depth sounder. There could be all kinds of vehicles, vessels, houses, motor homes, containers and other debris in the water some partially or fully submerged. There will also be a LOT of floating debris in the water capable of seizing your engine or fouling your prop(s). All of this obviously also applies to the northern Leewards, BVIs, USVIs, Puerto Rico, Turcs & Caicos and Bahamas and Cuba's northern coastline. Expect all kinds of confused and desperate wildlife. Their food supplies and normal fresh water supplies are likely gone or in short supply. Be safe and keep an eye on the weather throughout your trip.
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Hey now, don't lump me in that American batch. I nailed it including the St Maarten, Barbuda and BVI track/intensity/storm diameter. delayed left turn below the keys along with intensity and the future more northerly track. East eye wall around marathon and the west between Big Pine and Key West. Condolences to all affected by this terrible disaster. It is almost unimaginable destruction of not just property but people's lives and way of life.
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I freaking LOVE this place. No matter what the subject there seems to be a wealth of technical knowledge. Well done people.
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How serviceable is the port at the moment? (Just curious if they can load/offload and is the channel different after the storm?)
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It ain't over until it is over. Jose is indeed looking like the Loop De Loop hurricane over the next five days.
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Hurricane IRMA is no more. Winds have dropped below 74mph sustained. Hell of a ten day run for her though. Condolences to all of those affected both directly and indirectly by the storm.
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IRMA's interaction with the North coast of Cuba has undoubtedly come at a great cost to the residents of those coastal communities. I was unfamiliar with the towns along the North Coast so I spent some time this morning going through Google Earth. I was saddened to see most homes appear to be poorly constructed and depending on the area, some are only a few feet above the high tide mark and built in stilts out in the bays. There are some nice resorts that are probably mostly thrashed now as IRMA makes her way toward Havana. She should be right on the edge now of the SW periphery of the high pressure ridge steering her. A turn to the North is imminent and with that turn will come reduced friction and very warm water. The forecast is for increasing SW shear and if that happens it could help those on the west coast of Florida receive less of an impact. The forecast takes IRMA from her current CAT 3 designation and ramps her back to a CAT 4 before landfall over SW Florida. Based on the latest forecast I expect Cape Coral to be ground zero but it could be Tampa or Naples too. STATS: HURRICANE IRMA- CAT 3 MOVEMENT WEST @ 9MPH WIND: 125 G 155 PRESSURE 941mb Good luck to all in the path.
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Nailed it.
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I have to correct myself here. Carla was #1- IRMA would be #3. Which storm was #2? Carla Sept 11, 1961 TEXAS ________September 11, 1992 IRMA September??????
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If Irma makes landfall in the US on September 11th, she will be the second major hurricane to hit on that date in the last 100 years. Can you name the other one?
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I learned quite a while ago not to trust long range models. The effective range for larger scale systems is about 96 hours with a high level of dependability. The ECMWF model while not totally nailing the eventual track of Harvey, did put a serious hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico way back on August 14 and refined the path as time went on. If you like to look at longer range prognostications then the ECMWF bring a peppy tropical system into Puerto Rico next Wednesday night. The GFS is less robust and well to the north as it sees the steering currents giving the yet to be named system a door to the right on the forecast track. Bermuda perhaps. More as the tea leaves arrange.
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I have a couple of close friends that live in The Woodlands and Spring (North of Houston). I advised them both to leave at 2PM on Thursday. One is sitting happy well to the north on her Dad's farm The other is trying to figure out when they will be able to drive to the store again. My guess is 7-10 days for the guy that stayed to get to the market.
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They can order in aid, the problem is likely to be that the flooding may be so bad, no one can get supplies where they need to go except by helicopter for a week or so.