Mambo Kings

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Mambo Kings last won the day on March 20 2019

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About Mambo Kings

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  • Birthday 09/16/1912

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    Marblehead, MA and Greenwich, CT

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  1. To this centrist, it is extraordinary that the nomination process in a nation with so much leadership talent could produce such an uninspiring choice. Eight years after voters had to choose between Romney and Obama, we have this.
  2. Mambo Kings

    san diego open for sailing?

    So its official......you are co-habitating?
  3. Mambo Kings

    eSailing World Championship

    I forget.....it was something obvious. Jimmy_S or something like that. He was good......turns out he can win online as well as IRL
  4. One lesson we have learnt from CV19 is that the damage was done by a combination of mortality rate and infection rate. CV19 has a much greater mortality rate than typical influenza....which means that we cant let it run unchecked. Mandatory shut downs flatten the curve....but without shut downs, society would have closed down anyway when the death rate spiraled. CV19 has a much greater infection rate R0 than Ebola, SARs1 or Bird Flu (and also more infectious than typical influenza).....which turned it into a pandemic which shut down the world's economy. The infection rate was due to: 1) Less deadly than Ebola etc.......so hosts spread the disease for a few days rather than dying. 2) Sheds an unbelievable high number of virus particle (100X flu) 3) Hosts are shedding before they are symptomatic. You dont walk up to an Ebola host who is only infectious when symptomatic....but asymptomatic hosts are unintentionally infected new hosts, before becoming sick. The infection rate has truly crippled the global economy and damaged the socio-economic lives of the survivors.. Most would rather be poor than dead.....and there would have been tens/hundreds of thousands more deaths without the lock downs ....but it was pretty much a disaster once one understood the infection rate .
  5. Hmmm, a massage sounds like a really sensible way to maintain social distancing. Can a governor even buy D&O insurance?
  6. Sadly you underestimated this thing. I wish you had been right though. It has been an awful five weeks. New York alone at 19,000 dead. 0.1% of the population is staggering mortality rate. If it had spread through the rest of the nation at that rate, we would be looking at approx 300,000- 350,000 dead. Thank god for the lock downs. We will soon overtake KIA in 20 years in Vietnam.
  7. Mambo Kings

    Financial Assistance During the COVID Crisis

    And yet I can guarantee the argument will be made about bail outs. Thus far the banks are not receiving any bail outs.......because they dont need them. Certainly they will have a significant number of loan defaults from both individual and small business customers but their balance sheets are strong enough to withstand the shock. Remember the banking system is an agency model...its not that complicated.....depositors (you) put your money in bank accounts....the banks lend it to individuals (mortgages, credit cards etc) and businesses......and then pay the depositors interest. If the banking system failed (it wont) then 90% of the assets are depositor assets . The Fed and the FDIC job is to make sure that this never happens.....society would never recover. The CV19 shock is to main street economy not to the financial economy....which is why this stimulus look so different to 2008/09 (TARP etc). They key to not entering a prolonged recession is providing businesses, large and small with enough confidence to immediately re-hire all their employees and start the engine where they left off. This is through a combination of demand stimulation (the helicopter money that everyone is receiving) and the extensive loan programs that the Fed and the Treasury are providing to small and large businesses so they have enough cash to keep the businesses afloat with either no revenue or significantly less revenue . If businesses reopen cautiously ("Maybe I'll hire back 80% of my employees and see how it goes") there will be a recession. If they reopen aggressively the economy will rebound. I will give an example Darden, the restaurant chain, has closed every Olive Garden for dining in and is running a take out service, so revenues are down about 75-80%. They have 180,000 employees, obviously many are furloughed. They are burning $25 million a week during the close down. But they have ample liquidity with access to loans (over $2 bn) so they are at no risk of failing. Their employees are getting govt checks (and helathcare from the company. So they plan to reopen as soon as it is safe and bring back their employees and serve their customers. If this can be mirrored throughout the economy with fiscal stimulus keeping the employees in shape and monetary policy keeping the businesses afloat we will be okay-ish. The cost will be massive and it will have to be spread out gradually over the next decade.....but it was a pandemic and it caused productive activity to cease and there was a cost, and it should be shared. Over time we will repay the cost with taxes on our productive efforts and we will repay the helicopter money.......but it will seem money well spent and easier to repay because our economy will be afloat and prosperous. If we allow the economy to collapse, we will be paying the pandemic cost in a dreadful way in a recession. Its regrettable that its a election year. Economic stimulus is bi-partisan, both sides know it has to be done and done right.......but it will get politicized at a time when we really need the sensible people on both sides to be working together. Our futures depend on this being done perfectly.
  8. Mambo Kings

    Financial Assistance During the COVID Crisis

    If you push aside one's dislike or liking of POTUS, the stimulus packages are being designed across party lines with one sole objective in mind and that is to allow the economy to restart when the virus is past. Unlike the packages designed to save our banking system in the Global Credit Crisis these packages are much more aimed at Main Street than Wall Street. FWIW, the banking system is essential to economic activity and its nigh impossible to rebuild if it breaks. The 1930s depression partially came about from lacking the tools to save the banking system. The 2009/10 recession started from failing to act quickly enough to mitigate the fall out from the over valued mortgage market in the US. There was too much concern about moral hazard.....and the feeling was that Lehman should be allowed to fall, because risk of failure is essential to the capitalist economy. In hindsight, the cost to the economy would have been much more muted if shareholders had been wiped out at Lehman but the company saved. The Fed and administration acted quickly thereafter to prevent a recession becoming a depression. However, the good news is that in the CV19 crisis, the banking system is not the industry at risk. That is a very good thing for all of us who want to go back to work after this is over. The most exposed businesses are airlines, hotels, restaurants etc. It sounds awful to say this, but airlines and hotels does not put the economy at risk. They are asset based industries and if they go bust, there is simply a change of ownership. The assets have not gone away. If you board a plane with a different colored livery, then you still get to LA. If the bank system goes bust, your money becomes meaningless which makes it very hard to restart the system.........which is why Dodd Frank etc got enacted. If the banking system has to stay secure then it has to be very heavily regulated, so much so that it has in effect become overall a utility with low returns. The banking system will exist in 2021. The planes, cruiseships and hotels will still be there (not sure who will own them by then) which leaves 2 outstanding problems 1. Small businesses...the heart of the American economy. There are no big levers to pull...hence the innovative stimulus packages to try and make small businesses sufficiently confident to restart at full speed when virus passes. This is extraordinary hard because the natural instinct of every business is to start slowly and see how it goes. If everyone starts slowly, then what they will see is a very weak demand and we spin into recession. If everyone ramps then there is a chance we get back on track......hence the $1,200. The whole effort is aimed at main street and small businesses to start the economy from the bottom up. 2. Oil......the industry everyone likes to hate but also important to every American business. THe US is self sufficient in oil but cannot produce oil for under $35 per barrel (and really needs north of $50) .The collapse in the oil price does three things : (i) It acts as a huge stimulus to China and Japan (China and Japan import oil, so fall in prices is a massive tax cut the the whole area) and acts as a equally huge cost to the US economy (and Russia and saudi...but not our problem) (ii) We move from oil exporting to oil importing , so hit to balance of payments. (iii) Massive hit to wide swathe of industrial employment......the direct oil service companies (where american technology is so dominant) but also all the myriad of businesses who supply components....pumps, controls, software etc etc. #2 is the piece that threatens the small business stimulation and could send us into recession even after CV19. Normally I would say, the oil companies can go bust and there will simply be a change of ownership .....but there is no capital that wants to buy rigs in the Bakken or Permian because the price of oil doesnt cover the cost of getting it out,. US unconventional oil has one of the highest cost bases in the world . Hopefully the threat of contagion from the energy sector can be contained but its worrisome. There are two ways to save the US energy sector -----(i) Agree to US production quotas.We should have done this a decade ago to have an environmental licensing system that combines environmental goals with resource goals ...or (ii) Tariffs on foreign oil....which would be terrible IMHO , but it is a genuine threat that the US can make to encourage other producers to make the right cuts. There is another side effect, cheap overseas oil will put the brakes on the US shift to green solutions. Solar panels and electric cars need oil to be expensive. Anyway...long explanation of why the stimulation package is about helping main street, not wall street.
  9. Mambo Kings

    Lot of critics, but when should shutdown be lifted?

    Correct. A process and rules. N95 masks need to be widely available. Every working person will need to wear a mask every day. Wide spread and comprehensive testing will be essential. We are still some way from having the necessary infrastructure. A vaccine will likely be available from somewhere between mid 2021 and Fall 2021.
  10. Mambo Kings

    Lot of critics, but when should shutdown be lifted?

    Different countries will adopt different approaches to ending shutdowns but a common theme is likely to be that restrictions are phased out gradually by sector and, perhaps, region. The extent to which this is accompanied by new mass testing programmes will have a strong bearing on the speed at which countries open up – as well as the likely response in the event of a second wave of the virus. The gradual approach to opening up is one reason why we expect the recovery to be drawn out for most countries. The timing of reopening will be governed by the extent to which the virus is brought under control as well as the burden being placed upon healthcare systems. This will vary from country to country but could start as soon as next month. A key point, however, is that while the shutdowns were imposed swiftly across large swathes of the economy, re-openings will be gradual. One approach could be to stagger the reopening across regions. This was the model followed by China. It has the benefit of allowing governments to ease restrictions depending on local infection rates and the strains within local healthcare systems. It is perhaps most likely to be deployed in countries that are both large and where a significant amount of authority is devolved to state or regional governments (e.g. the US and India). Another approach would be to phase the reopening across different sectors of the economy. This would allow sectors that are economically more important, or where human contact is more limited to open first. In this model, manufacturing, construction, logistics and some outdoor industries would be the first to reopen. Schools would follow. Restaurant, hospitality and leisure would be among the last. Restrictions on foreign travel would remain in place for the foreseeable future. As it happens, despite all the talk about governments putting together exit strategies, most are still in the process of extending lockdowns. But the general approach to reopening has also started to enter the discussion. In practice, governments are likely to follow their own path – lifting the lockdown gradually across regions, sectors and even age groups. Three general points are worth making. First, at the risk of stating the obvious, there’s likely to be a significant variation in the performance of different sectors as economies open up. Crucially, this will depend both on when restrictions affecting sectors are lifted but also on consumer behaviour. After all, lingering concerns about the virus may mean that individuals are reluctant to gather in public places like theatres and restaurants long after the official lockdown is lifted. There is some evidence that this is happening in China. One consequence is that Sectors like manufacturing and construction are likely to rebound sooner than leisure and tourism. Second, at a macro level, economies that are more dependent on sectors that will lag behind are themselves likely to be much slower to recover. Emerging economies including Mexico, Thailand and Turkey are among the most reliant on tourism and face prolonged period of weakness. In the developed world, the same is true of Greece, Portugal and Italy. Finally, most scientists agree that the key to lifting lockdowns lies in mass testing and tracing programmes. These would allow governments to identify, isolate and monitor any new outbreaks of the virus as economies are reopened. Widespread shutdowns are only needed when the governments lose control of the virus. But the experience of Korea – which implemented an early strategy of mass testing, tracing and local containment – has demonstrated that national lockdowns can be avoided. The extent to which mass testing programmes can be developed and then rolled out across countries will influence the speed at which governments move through the different phases of reopening. Perhaps more importantly, it will also determine the scale of the necessary response should a second wave of the virus develop.
  11. Mambo Kings

    what's your yacht club doing?

    The club I belong to, Noroton Yacht Club , has done a wonderful job thus far. During winter , we operate on limited hours anyway with the club open on a couple of afternoons for winter RC laser racing etc. But the Flags showed real leadership by closing the club early in the crisis ahead of the stay-at-home order. As a result , there have been no cases of infection from club gatherings. A week later we now realize we are merely miles from the epicenter in New York. The commodore conveyed the message in such a way that demonstrated that caring about the health and safety of members and their families was important above all else. He has done a brilliant job in communicating to all the club volunteers and committees making us all truly feel part of the club community. He has hosted Zoom conference calls. He has assembled a thoughtful and knowledgeable CV19 task force which is carefully working on plans for how the club should be reopened and at what stages, and which use cases can be safely justified. There is unlikely to be racing for some time in certain classes because social distancing is hard but Im super impressed by their thought processes. The club permanent employees have been kept on and are also working on keeping the club ready. Our caterer is running a take out service on weekends. The club members totally support these expenses. The social committee is organizing online activities so that we all continue to feel part of the club. I have only been a member of NYC for 3 or 4 years and I have belonged to several clubs over the years (and still do...shout out to LCSC!) but I have gradually come to realize that it really is a community of sailors and their families. I can honestly say that joining NYC has been one of the best things my family has done. To quote one of the members on a recent Zoom call. The ocean is still there, our club is not going anywhere, we will be sailing again....we just dont know when.
  12. The US trajectory is not following China. We are already 5X the total cases per million population . China instigated quarantine cordons around outbreaks. We have not and its probably too late now. If we follow the trajectory of Italy.....or even half way between Italy and China.....then we are well on our way to reaching 12,000 and likely more.
  13. One real issue is what is the cost of late containment? In hindsight, blaming nobody, if we (the US) had suspended domestic travel 2 weeks ago, set up quarantine facilities for all those testing positive internally, and required 14 days quarantine for all international arrivals (US residents and overseas visitors).....this might have been limited to a few locations where we could have focused enormous resources. Unfortunately now we have traction nationwide and a 2 trillion dollar bill and climbing. The comparison with China is going to be (a) Deaths and (b) Economic impact. Even now, with an epicenter in New York that is rivaling Wuhan, residents of New York City can and are fleeing the city undoubtedly a few will be carrying the virus with them. Rentals within driving distance of NYC are skyrocketing. Its hard not to sympathize with their plight. I will be providing my house to friends from NYC who are desperate to get out. It is secluded so it doesnt affect any neighbors and is just what they want. They want to get their elderly parents and children out of the city.....and I cant blame them. But in Wuhan China, there was a ring fence and they were contained in the city.
  14. This just in from Palma Majorca, compliments of the guys at One Sails: We are all physically restricted to our houses, except for one hour a day to leave the house, where we get allocated time slots, so only 1/15th of the population is out at any one time. The expectation is that the situation will last until after Easter at least.