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cmilliken last won the day on February 16 2019

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About cmilliken

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    Super Anarchist
  • Birthday 08/19/1965

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  1. cmilliken

    covid restrictions decreasing flu cases

    The nice thing about the scientific method is that I can use actual data to confirm or reject a hypothesis! Just like I waited for data to confirm or reject the hypothesis that you're an elitist prick rather than just believe other people's assertions!
  2. cmilliken

    Use of Deadly Force by Law Enforcement

    My personal guess is that 30 seconds later the guy would have realized what he'd done and stop running, dropped the taser, and then started going 'oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck'. But that's just armchair speculation. Tough situation.
  3. cmilliken

    Use of Deadly Force by Law Enforcement

    I think that's an important part. That might have helped but Mr. Brooks really just 'lost it' when they tried to put the cuffs on. I'm not sure what set him off but that was panic and he was in fight or flight from that point on. Watching it unfold, I do wonder about the need to shoot. There's rules about 'high speed chases'. They had the guy's car. They have his ID. They know where he's going. He wasn't armed (until he took the Taser). He didn't appear to represent a threat to himself or anyone else or fit Sean's description from above. He seemed terrified. If they had let the guy run off and he HAD hurt someone, would the police THEN be counted liable for outcome as well? Probably. I don't know how that fits in the calculus of the officer's decision.
  4. cmilliken

    covid restrictions decreasing flu cases

    Ultimately, I think the data will show a measurable decrease in many communicable diseases during the shutdowns (compared to a normal year), particularly those with relatively short infectious windows and those that are spread by droplets. To me, it's probability. If you have a flu, then you are 'infectious' for a certain window of time. The more wandering you do and the more interactions you have during that windows, the more likely you are to pass it along. If you spend a significant fraction of that time in quarantine, then there's just less of a chance of passing it along. At both end points - when everyone is sick (and everyone has some level of resistance) or almost no one is sick (and no one has any resistance), then the quarantine is less statistically obvious. FWIW, I do think that there may actually be a permanent shift is some 'seasonal' infections because of exactly what you've mentioned - but I'd include business behavior in addition to personal behavior. Business have dramatically increased cleaning services and the use of disinfectants - and they were pretty extensively used already. One negative impact that I'm curious to see is auto-immune diseases. There's a subset of doctors that believe the upsurge in Auto-immune diseases over the last decade may be a response to hyper-sanitizing our environment. I have several good friends who have issues including one nice old Irish catholic lady who's family could fill a medical journal for auto-immune issues so I have a personal curiosity in that area. I'm also interested to see what happens with 'resistant' bacteria and whether we get a notable increase in fungal issues/diseases.
  5. cmilliken

    Use of Deadly Force by Law Enforcement

    Here's the Rayshard Brooks Video from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
  6. That's a really powerful video. I watched it yesterday. Thanks for posting.
  7. cmilliken

    What's Wrong with the CONfedrate FlAG?

    I think you're right. Both Lincoln and Grant (and officers further down the ranks like Sherman and Chamberlain) were far more interested in 'ending the war' than they were punishing the South. I'd bet that if you asked them at the time, none would have realized the degree of 'revisionism' that was going to occur. They knew what the fight was about. EVERYONE knew what the war was about. The war itself was the finale to decades of preamble and negotiated stalemates that punted the issue of slavery. The terms that ended the war were hand written by Grant, at the behest of Lincoln. "Put down your guns. Promise not to fight anymore. The officers can keep their stuff and their side arms. Go home." That's it. Its a paragraph long. I think that's why a lot of these monuments and statues were erected 60+ years later. The people with direct experience were mostly dead and the myths that had been seeded to make people 'feel better' and 'save face' were supplanting reality. Secessionist became rebels - kinda like the founding fathers, right? A 'States Right to have Slaves' became "States Right of Self Determination". Rebranding made easy.
  8. cmilliken

    Is Conservatism tied to Racism ?

    It takes less mental gymnastics for a conservative to be a racist. Liberal racism tends to come out in the 'mystic' tropes where the 'otherness' is deified instead of ridiculed... But is still excluded. That's a lot less common.
  9. Thanks, I'll look that up in particular. Infectious diseases are all about probabilities - any action is going to change the odds which is then going to change the rate. Back at the time, there was a lot of diddling with Imperial college's estimates and they had included a number of 'assumptions' about how various terms might impact spread. I'm betting whatever he said is a gross simplification or was pushed for political expediency. Then again, sometimes Profs through out some pretty non-traditional perspectives as well. (FWIW, this was the first link I hit by him this morning ( Timing does matter and the earlier you catch it, the less of a curve you have to suppress, assuming you're going to use that strategy. For me, that's all about buying time until you have a better option. At the end, the "detect and isolate" is the most local curve suppression you can do.
  10. cmilliken

    What next for the GOP?

    I appreciate the link. We'll see if he (a) wins and (b) sticks to it. He certainly wouldn't be the first candidate to 'almost certainly' change his mind later.
  11. cmilliken

    What next for the GOP?

    Why? Serious. He's not ambitious? He wouldn't want to stay in power after so many years of waiting for it? Unless he's got some mortal illness, I don't see why he would not run for a 2nd term.
  12. cmilliken

    What next for the GOP?

    Romney will always have a small level of support but as Jonah Goldberg put it, "What you see is what you get with Romney, if you don’t have partisan blinders on. He’s a transparently decent man who is also a transparently conventional, if a bit stiff, Republican politician. He’s not immune to the charge of flip-flopping on issues like abortion or health care, but that hardly makes him unique. What he isn’t — and wasn’t in 2012 — is a racist, a sexist or a coldhearted monster." In other words, he can't win. Ever. So scratch him. I think it's going to be someone younger, loud but not quite as batshit, and with a presence on social media. Probably somewhat populist but far more conventional than Trump. 2024 is when the Millennials start to push their agenda - and finally start to vote - and it will come from the party not in power. Assuming Biden wins, then it'll be younger republicans who start to push first. They'll try and create a big contrast to Biden 2nd term alternative.
  13. I've been reading/watching a fair bit of demographic stuff of late and the world as a whole has a 'growth' problem. To paraphrase Peter Zeihan, "What happens when you have 30 years of 1 child policy? You end up with a shortage of 25 year olds.." Decreasing population growth rate is great for the planet, but it's really bad for an economic system based on 'growth' and the ever expanding pie. Stagnation leads to stratification. Japan is getting old.. fast. Canada is getting old. German, France, England, etc. You can go down the list. Even China is suddenly hitting middle age. The great 'saving grace' of the USA is actually MEXICO which is why Trump's policies towards Mexico are actually pretty weird and fundamentally decoupled from reality. I think the US has definitely been whiffing on infrastructure. There HAVE been projects - the big 13 that came out of the 'shovel ready' initiative - but even that is just incremental bullshit. I would vote for a BHAG - a Big Hairy Audacious Goal - in a second.
  14. I understand the post and appreciate the effort you put into it. Where you and I are not going to agree are the boundary condition. I see the Coronavirus as a marathon that the world is now having to run. Assuming that humans CAN develop lasting immunity to COVID, either through exposure or vaccine, then there will be an end. Otherwise, "this" will become a new normal. I don't think it's going to go away. I don't think we can 'isolate and track' this genie back into the bottle. Individual countries - particularly islands - might be able to keep it mostly contained, as long as they're willing to severely curtail travel. That's why I don't disagree with any of the data. I believe what is reported. But I believe that 'suppressing' a curve is exactly that - but the area under the curves are the same - the number of people effected are ultimately the same. What's different is the rate at which people are effected. Below is the graph I threw out three months ago to explain why a '2 week lock down' was utter bullshit and that it had to be 8+ to have any significant impact. It turned out to be about 10 weeks in most places. That's just math. Sweden in 7.3% of the way through the race. Other countries are less or more along, depending on how much you trust the numbers being reported (I see you frothing Astro!). There is no indication that the virus will run its course by the end of the year or that there will be an effective vaccine that can be universally deployed in that time frame. Therefore, there WILL be another surge in viruses this fall. How big of a surge? Won't know until fall. We'll see if Sweden's head start helped them at all. Financially, it certainly hasn't. I have not read one paper or one report from anyone anywhere that suggests "An overarching assumption used by Sweden and other countries and states opposing "suppression" is the claim epidemics work like clockwork independent of "lock-downs". That seems made up from whole cloth. A straw man for you to burn down. Sweden banked on its people being responsible. They failed to shut down nursing homes early enough - just like Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, etc. And their mortality rate and age of average patient who died reflect that reality. The truth is they probably underestimated the 'asymptomatic' carriers or the people that simply go to work because they have too and hide the symptoms. I absolutely believe that medical practitioners are getting better at detecting, diagnosing, and treating COVID, therefore the mortality rate will continue to decline over time. -------------- One of the other areas where you and I are probably not going to agree is on the nature of people. I think the longest any 'realistic' lockdown was ever going to last in the US was about 8 weeks, regardless of encouragement, unless force and actual detentions were used. I watched friends and neighbors start to cheat, sneak out, justify, etc. after only a few days. Not a lot, but here and there. I know there are continuing reports of weekend parties, basement dances, etc. Humans are going to be human and unless you start locking people up, they're going to interact. Cell phone tracking backed that up. I also think that's why the George Floyd protests have been so vocal. There's a lot of pent up energy that's GOING to come out. Maybe some good will come of it - I hope so. That's probably one of the reasons I'm more sympathetic to what the Swedes TRIED to do. But I also think they made the mistake of the guy with a generator on during a black out. Sometimes, you need to stick with the herd. ------------- From your innuendo, I assume you think I'm going to defend the US Federal response? I think the lack of Federal leadership and it's 'broken pool cue' approach has been reprehensible. I think the regional compacts have done OK, given what they had to start with and what the knew at the time. I think the southern states, those along the Mexican border, are doomed, regardless of leadership. The border has too many people crossing and a high percentage of 'asymptomatic carriers' means its already failed. That will mean that regardless of regional strategy, it's going to be a rough fall across the whole of the US. Good luck - Crumbs and all, that's where I"m coming from. I'm waiting for data to make a final judgement. Be safe.
  15. Ha! Angus Young met the devil on a crossroad - the Devil got guitar lessons - we're still trying to figure out what Angus got...