AlphaPuppy

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About AlphaPuppy

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  1. AlphaPuppy

    Mythical Front Page Upgrade

    horrible
  2. AlphaPuppy

    Pontos Winch

    Well that sucks, I've been pretty happy with mine and think it's a great product. The question now is how do I stock up on replacement parts...
  3. AlphaPuppy

    Airmar leeway measuring log/depth sensor

    Does anybody know what happened with this sensor? It is still not available so will it turn out to be vaporware as it has happened in the past?
  4. AlphaPuppy

    Tracking device or software

    Garmin InReach
  5. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    Hi Herman, I made ALC 5% faster than AT while on port for the text part of the time prediction I posted. Expedition doesn't support assymetric polars so I had to split the route into starboard/port sections and then sum up the two. The picture I posted however is simpler with ALC being 105% faster throughout. My other experiments just looked too messy.
  6. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    It's almost time for the crucial tack towards SDO. Latest optimal routes for the leaders using GFS/ECMWF/TideTech GRIBs has ALC tacking sometime between 12:00-15:00UTC and AT tacking sometime later between 16:00-18:00UTC. Sadly for AT latest predictions have him finisht 6-7:30 hours adrift of ALC. Also ran routings for the GFS/ECMWF ensemble predictions but no model has AT overhauling ALC before the finish barring some damage or other calamity to ALC which I don't wish for him given the masterful way he has sailed this race. Attaching picture of route and stats showing ALC getting to his tack point at 12:00 per the ECMWF model
  7. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    Sorry guys for going radio silent on ya all, but been busy with work and Holiday preparations. Thanks to all that diligently keep posting news from every possible source and so make it easier to keep up with this race. Gutted for Meilhat/SMA! Did people not predict it would be the foilers who wouldn't make it around the course? And yet, here we have all competitive non-foilers out of the picture and only a hybrid (JB's Master Cock) left at the head of the fleet to compete with the new foilers. What a race! So much more interesting than the previous VOR. Anyway, back to this race, will try to post something a bit more informative soon with my usual stats, but yes, as Herman says, AT has finally gotten a bit of a break on the weather as things look pretty complicated for ALC to CH and then for a bit after that up to the Falkland Islands. Not that great for AT either but comparatively speaking... I've run routing on the GFS, GFS ensemble and ECMWF past CH and to the latitude of the Falkland Islands and it looks like AT will be anywhere from 1d to 1d-16h behing ALC by the time they get to the Falklands. But the situation is definitely very complicated and fluid for ALC after CH with no good options so a potential opportunity for AT to catch up quite a bit. Reminds me of the VOR a couple of editions ago, where Telefonica put in for a bit of a pit stop in Tierra del Fuego and almost caught poor Kenny on Puma farther up the course even after being close to two(?) days behind... Somebody more diligent than me I'm sure can dig up the actual stats but it was a matter of minutes for Puma even though Telefonica was WAY behind... Still, while wishing no ill will or damages to ALC, which has been sailing a hell of a race, I must admit, I'm still, in my heart of hearts, rooting for AT, so a bit of an equalizer from the weather gods would not feel too unfair to me...
  8. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    I found where I picked up that he lost his backstay: http://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/17317/thomas-ruyant-everything-has-been-made-secure Maybe this is some translation issue but it looks like both backstays are in place. I think he meant that because the boat was essentially folding in half, the forestay/backstay tension was pulling the boat apart and so both backstay/forestay were going limp which means essentially no support for the mast in the fore/aft axis.
  9. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    Hi Alpha, My 2 cents. I'm very happy with your weather routing posts, much appreciated. The details regarding the calculated routings in the bottom left corner are a bit hard to decipher though (low resolution pic). The excel with TWA/TWS is impressive, but the question I'd have as skipper: what's in it for me? How can I translate that info into routing decisions? I presume the projected sailplan for the suggested optimal route can be derived from that. Also, a lot of info is displayed, so what is your conclusion/advice to the skipper? Posting that advice here too will get you more understanding/feedback from the less-polars oriented SA's in this thread. Otherwise, just give them your sisters phone number Hi Herman, Appreciate your comments and also your previous posts with routing info. You have now given me homework regarding unsuspected weather routing capabilities of other SW programs that I was not aware of. Regarding sharing routing information for the VG in particular, I've found it hard to decide what to post so it's somewhat interesting to the thread followers and yet fits within the restrictions of the platform (size of attachments, etc). Also, this race in particular has interesting challenges that are atypical to my usual race such as not having "proper" polar info, no sail chart, no boat measured TWS/TWA/MSLP/Wave data in the position report, which makes it very hard to correct the polar, as well as figure out if weather prediction is accurate, etc. That makes giving informed guesses as to current and future performance/behavior of the boats, somewhat risky, or at least less scientific than I'd like, in a public forum so I've resorted to presenting pure uninterpreted "data" hoping people can come to their own conclusions as to what it might mean and to the limitations given all presumably known uncertainties in the inputs, including lack of support by the VG organisation. But you make a good point, I think I've been a little gun shy and in the future I'll try to at least offer some interpretation to the basic data that has validity in spite of the unknowns due to the various avoidable (VG org specific issues mostly due to sparse data) and unavoidable (Weather uncertainties) factors.
  10. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    I too try to provide it. Don't have the fancy Excel colouring though! Appreciate you posting it here. Thanks, appreciate the feedback. I guess what I'm after is ideas for how to format the data to increase its usefulness or ideas for what data to add again to increase usefulness given our dock side spectating for this race. An obvious one for this race, although highly atypical would be % port/stb. That is something that would normally have little value but given AT/HB's handicap is interesting for this race. Hard to make use of as all routing programs assume symmetrical performance so there is no such thing as port/stb polars. Has to be painfully done manually if necessary. For a normal real race, assuming you were crew on these boats, either before or during the race, what else would you ask me for? Or how would you change the presentation? What would you add, what would you remove? Obvious candidates are wave data. Wave angle, wave height? Also, obviously before the race, we would run a bazillion routes based on statistical data to plan the possible sail configuration, figure out bounds on duration, etc. Then as things get closer, a week or so out, we would be discussing which sails might be left at the dock, which would make it onboard. Then during the race it would be what to expect during your coming x hour shift based on current data. Anyway, hope you all get the idea and can get into the groove of what you'd like to see if you were onboard now.
  11. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    Excellent, easy, my type of crew, just keep you fed, throw you the occasional Milkyway and done. But for the more demanding crew, pre-race and during race, what sort of information do you consider useful and look for from your Nav?
  12. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    So, I'm looking for feedback as to whether people find some of what I post useful. Specifically, the optimal route stats showing TWS/TWA percentages. I usually try to compile that for my crew on a race and have been doing that in a basic level for the VG but was thinking due to lack of response that it is essentially deemed not that useful/interesting. It is always hard to provide a "snapshot" of what is essentially a dynamic situation changing hour by hour in a multi-day long race. Perhaps the buckets are too fine grained so I've added progressively "coarser" buckets with the goal of giving an idea of what angles/TWS are likely to be seen on a race. I'm attaching what I consider an enhanced view with both fine grained and coarse-grained views of both TWA/TWS, I'd appreciate some feedback as to whether people would consider this extended bucketing useful and an improvement over previous posts. If your Navigator provided that to you during a race would you be: Happier Annoyed Indifferent Thanks, looking forward to some feedback.
  13. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    And here is the same for ALC/BP
  14. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    Quick update on AT's prospects to Cape Horn using latest ECMWF, GFS and GFS ensemble runs. Attaching route and route stats.
  15. AlphaPuppy

    Vendee Globe 2016?

    I use http://vg2016.regadata.org/en/reports/latest and it is not updated so often. I could do it manually, but I don't want to be accused of hacking again. I'm still waiting for Vendee Globe reply. Thanks Forss, I think it was BS in the first place that you were accused of "stealing" data. Completely unfair accusation in my opinion. I have also been using the vg2016.regdata.org source. Though still unclear whether this is an officially sanctioned source or not. If it is, then why did they pull the lat/lon data for 2 days? But anyway, I created some scripts to pull data from this to create the position reports I need to keep data up to date in Expedition. Still, given the sparse data set, obviously I can't see any maneuvers in between official data points. I guess that is now only available via "official" tracker. Anyhow, we'll see how this settles for the long term.