2Newts

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About 2Newts

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  1. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 9 Newport to Cardiff

    Not sure I need to ... I think they are doing it. They are 150 miles south of Brunel and the gap is growing. But if I could contact them, I would also advise them not to listen to any of my advice, so no worries on taking anything I say seriously.
  2. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 9 Newport to Cardiff

    So, if you were the brain trust on SHK/SW right now, would you try to skirt to the south of the ridge? Sort of looks like that from their course. If you follow the fleet you are hoping for an Irish Sea and/or Bristol Channel miracle to pass 6 boats. Yet, if you go south now, and in fact can get thorough the ridge in, lets say, 12 fewer hours than the rest of the fleet, then what do you care that you'd have to sail upwind all the way to Cardiff? You'd be so stinking far ahead it that your poor sailing angle wouldn't matter. I tell you what - if I were on board I'd be running a whole lot of scenarios through the router right now.
  3. 2Newts

    Teams?

    Well, it is cool to see the break down by functional area, isn't it? But even the total 62 million euro is low compared to the forecast cost of being competitive. At today's rate, that's about $73 million USD, which is about half of the number being tossed around for a competitive team.
  4. 2Newts

    Teams?

    Some recent news items are bringing the fleet into focus. So: ENTZ - defender LR - COR BAR - in with new funding at about $150mm NYYC - in with disclosed funding of about $40mm (Adelasia di Torres - sure seem to be in but no news of having actually filed paperwork) (USA21 - confirmed interest in search of funding and a sponsor yacht club) China: Per David Witt's interview posted by @southerncross, Scallywag is out. No word that I am aware of from Dongfeng. No other team has made noise afaik. Australia: out Europe outside of Italy&UK: no entries, but still a few suspects who have not specifically said they are out Rest of World: nothing I'm aware of That may be the list right there. I would not personally put money on USA21 pulling it together for 2021. Maybe the next.
  5. That or Butterworth was back in town egging the youth on
  6. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 9 Newport to Cardiff

    The forecast is TERRIBLE for the in-port race on Sat. I was going to take the (young) kids out on the (exposed) center console boat, but 53 degrees + easterlies + steady rain = the wife might not allow this to happen. Ugh.
  7. 2Newts

    4 Solid Teams, this thing is on!

    This is exactly the best case scenario at this time. However (since I am the self-declared negative Nelly when it comes to number of teams) I say that you still need to apply probabilities to each of these and that will get you to the most likely number of teams that make the starting line. For a long time I've been saying 4 is the number, but now I'm going up to 5. On the plus side of the ledger: Sir Ben has lined up significant money, a second American team has gone from rumor to rumor-in-the-press, and American Magic has made no indications of being scared off by the rising budget estimates. On the down side of the ledger: Everyone in Australia has either thrown up their hands or shrugged their shoulders and walked away, the second Italian team has made no noise at all, no one else out of Europe has made any positive indications, and the estimated budget to compete is not headed in a team-friendly direction.
  8. 2Newts

    Teams?

    Good find. And makes sense. That whole issue about bases took too long and probably took too much of GD's time. At this point I suspect his biggest hurdle in talking with potential competitors is cost and cost-containment. I suspect anyone on the fence about competing is looking at (1) can we raise the amount estimated to be needed and (2) how screwed are we if/when the costs go up by $10mm, $20mm, etc. Because if the total estimated cost to compete is, let's just say, $130mm, then a ten million dollar overrun is only a 7.7% increase. Small percentages make for big dollars in this realm. Tough job. GD has a lot on his plate.
  9. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

    Nobel and Plastic only 5 miles apart, and when they get to Staten Island Dongfeng and Vestas will likely be on top of each other. Good stuff coming up. If the places were to hold exactly, and if SHKS has not in fact resumed racing, the standings after this leg would be: DFRT 44 MAPF 43 TBRU 37 VS11 35 AKZO 31 SHKS 26 TTOP 18
  10. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

    Puerto Montt IS a very inviting town. I was there 20 years ago and loved it. It's actually a natural for top-notch local sailing but there did not seem to be much of it when I was there. Maybe because the mountains are so close by and the Chileans who could afford a boat seemed to prefer their mountain holidays. Either way, the plan must be to put the boat on a cargo vessel and get it up to Newport if they are going to participate in any more of the race. Google says it's a 42 hour drive from Puerto Montt, and 48 hours from Puerto Chacabuco, to Itajai. And that includes getting up and over the Andes. And that's assuming you could even truck these things and, if you can, whether it would be legal to do so in Chile, Argentina, and Brazil.
  11. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

    I thought I read somewhere that for this version of the race every person on board has a personal EPIRB or similar device for homing. I know from experience just how difficult it is to locate a horseshoe in even 3-foot seas after slowing from 9 knots to turn back up wind, much less the monster sea they had to deal with and the fact that they were doing over 20. They must have been well over a mile (less than 3 minutes every mile at those speeds) down range by the time they turned. But that said, is there no homing device on either of the buoys or the sailor. If he was indeed unconscious then any device on him would have had to have been automatic. That they could not find the buoys tells me that the buoys did not have any sort of homing device. Does anyone know what equipment was at play here?
  12. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

    I'm thinking the hull repair left them a smidge slower through the water, or they are (consciously or unconsciously) not quite putting the petal all the way down. Either way, what a bummer.
  13. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

    Yep. About an inch down in Manhattan but, to paraphrase a great movie line, I don't think the hard stuff will be coming down for quite awhile. It's not, by any measure, the latest snow I've seen around here. I remember about 2-3 inches one June as I was studying for exams. And a friend got married outdoors in August in Utica NY just as a cold front passed through and there were flurries. In August.
  14. 2Newts

    VOR Leg 7 Auckland to Itajai

    Yeah, but why is she so slow down there? 1-to-3 knots slower than the boats to the north. Hard to imagine that they actually have less wind further south.
  15. 2Newts

    Teams?

    I didn't. I suggested that we probably could for the same reason that we could probably cross off Alinghi -- neither of them is officially out, but neither of them is official in either. And in my personal opinion, I don't think they will go in. They are up to something, that is for sure, but in my opinion it won't be AC36. I also think my wife won't notice if I buy some new parts for my boat this spring but I could well be wrong on that as well.