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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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2Newts

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Everything posted by 2Newts

  1. Teams?

    Looks like last time there was any sort of activity on that website was 2014.
  2. Team NYYC

    That's not what he said. He said, quite clearly, that the team will be doing training camps to learn the art of foiling. He could have used other words. He could have said "we will be sailing Moths intensively to keep our skills sharp and learn new techniques." But he didn't. He said his team is going to learn the art of foiling. That may have been a slip of the tongue, or it may be mis-reported. But it certainly implies that his team is FAR FAR FAR behind all three of the of the other teams in terms of knowing what makes a large, crewed, fully-foiling machine go faster and higher than another similar large, crewed, fully-foiling machine.
  3. Team NYYC

    "There will be work to do in the sailing team too. Hutchinson and his crewmates will do training camps in the Moth, a one-man hydroplaning dinghy, to learn the art of foiling." OK, so, the NYYC team is learning how to foil. Meanwhile the ENTZ team has already done it REALLY WELL for two cup cycles based in part on LR experience and technology and even crash-em-up Ben has some hard earned experience in boats WAY bigger and more complex than Moths. There is no way the NYYC team becomes competitive to win if this is the starting point.
  4. Teams?

    The other reality has always been that any first-time team needs to look at this round as the experience-gaining round, not the time to win the cup.
  5. Team Alinghi

    With SNG as the backing club? Can Alinghi get enough Swiss nationals? Residency option seems tough as the lake is not the ideal year-round base of practice. Maybe with a French YC as the backing club. That would actually make some sense. Their afterward is already part French.
  6. Teams?

    Alright, with the new platform announced, now is crunch time for teams on the bubble to get in or out. I would suspect that the teams on the bubble are looking at that platform and seeing dollar (or euro or pound or franc or yen or whatever) signs spinning. The point was made in the Next Boat 2020 thread that very low budget teams that might have been able to hang in for a third go at catamarans will opt out of spending (they may see as wasting) money on a also-ran program on a new platform. I would also suspect that anyone serious about getting in will make the announcement by Christmas - otherwise it will get VERY difficult to put a competitive team in place in time. So: OTUSA: no indication to make us think so OTAUS: good idea, but magic 8-ball says "outlook not so good" Cammas: Nothing to attract a French sponsor to this idea yet Alinghi: Platform has not solved any of the reasons to be skeptical Artemis: Ditto 2nd Italy: Gotta move fast - might be too late to get the team together with the nationality requirements Other USA: Ditto New team from China/Japan/Germany/Russia/etc: Unless Clean has heard something, there's not an indication yet. If anyone knows any billionaires, now is the time to convince them to jump in. The clock is ticking. Has anyone heard anything? Clean?
  7. Team Australia

    “It’s about one big fish coming in then everyone will follow. Someone believe in what we could do and getting behind us and getting a whole country." Let's see, how many times have I heard this from start up entrepreneurs who end up never finding that big fish? Unfortunately, I'd say that if he doesn't have the big fish on the line already, he's not likely to get one in time to secure the design talent. I suppose his interview also means that OTAUS is not going to happen since, clearly, Larry is the very definition of a big fish.
  8. Teams?

    It also dramatically increases the chances of LRBAR sticking with it through to the challenger elimination regatta. So in terms of just counting the # of teams likely to make the starting line, this is a net plus. It puts a dent in an Aussie challenge that hadn't materialized anyways, and shores up one that has been saying all the right things but has had some significant holes to fill. Teams-on-the-starting-line count, as of now, is: DEFINITE: ENTZ and LR PROBABLE: NYYC and LRBAR POSSIBLE: Cammas, Onorato UNLIKEY BUT NOT OFFICIALLY OUT: Oracle, Artemis, Azzura CRICKETS BUT RUMORS ON SA: Australia, second USA, China
  9. Teams?

    I'm still the pessimist saying 4 total make the line. I understand the Cammas comments correctly, he's saying that Groupama is out but that he's still trying to find alternative funding. It appears he wants to be in. And he might have a good reason for it. The rationale goes something like this: we believe that LR will win, that the next event will be in Italy, and an event in Italy will be HUGE for a France-based sponsor who sells throughout Europe, and if we want to be competitive in that one we need to at least show up for this one. That could be his pitch and how he gets a French company to sponsor for an event that takes place in winter in the middle of the night. It's actually the same rationale for Land Rover to stay in, though of course Land Rover does sell into NZ and Aus, who will be watching live during the day during the summer, plus the coverage they get in the UK, so they get some legitimate return on their investment on this cycle. If the money can be found, an Aussie challenge is totally logical, but so far it's been crickets from down under. I still can't see China stepping in. Plenty of money, but not enough premier sailors who will meet the residency requirements. I still can't see Artemis stepping in. I'd love to see Oracle back but this last backtrack from JS sure seems to indicate they are more interested in the AC45/AC50 professional circuit. I think that PB will support (or possibly even fund) a second Italian entry if it's needed for appearances, or if it he needs a sparring partner* and neither Frank nor Ben are willing to play that role. So at this point there are four teams in addition to the defender and challenger who could materialize: NYYC, LRBAR, Cammas, Italy#2. Apply probabilities and I say two of those make the line. * Two-boat testing for any team is prohibited. Are teams allowed to spar against each other?
  10. The storm that blew through New England this weekend was about the strength of a Cat 1 hurricane, and the wreckage photos are astounding. @Eweather13 has many on twitter: https://twitter.com/Eweather13
  11. Teams?

    Right, $100mm is the number that is being thrown around at the low end. At the high end, the biggest number we've seen yet is (I think) TH's $300mm. The thing about the London framework is that it would have given teams a much more predictable and narrower range; even if it does not end up being less, the predictability has value. Here's what I'm beginning to wonder: So LR provided funding and other support for ENTZ. And PB really really REALLY REALLY wants to win the cup. So what does he do now? Does he essentially screw ENTZ into accepting a boat and rules that are far too expensive for them to bear alone in the hopes that ENTZ itself becomes a basic, minimum campaign? Does PB spend $300 in the hopes of edging out any other challengers, then to crush an underfunded defender? There is some logic to this approach.
  12. Teams?

    Ren - I think that was me trying to up-vote as many of your posts as I could!
  13. Oracle Team USA

    Yah, I'm with you. The more billionaires pouring money into sailing, the better for sailing.
  14. Here is the prototype that he built.
  15. Team NYYC

    True. I carefully said "have it raised or have a clear path to raising it" because it may end up that others don't WANT to fund their fun and games but they themselves are willing to go the full amount themselves. DeVos: "Hey Hap" Fauth: "What's up, Doug" DeVos: "You wanna win? Or just build some cool boats?" Fauth: "And lose? To Italians? No one loses to Italians. Let's win!" DeVos: "Ok buddy. What do you say we set the budget at $300 million and you and I split the shortfalls, whatever they may be?" Fauth: "Agreed. But first we raise as much as we can from others. Only after exhausting every avenue, then we go public with this. Have you called Donald yet?" DeVos: "Agreed. I haven't spoken to him but Betsy tells me he's good for $25,000. So we have that going for us." Fauth: "Cheap son of a bitch." Or maybe not. Maybe they actually will not put in more than a certain cap that they've no doubt discussed already. I think the only thing we know for sure is that Luna Rosa will be spending ungodly amounts of money to win this thing.
  16. Oracle Team USA

    Pricy home for just two years. Especially given that the stamp duty plus broker fee plus other transaction expenses total about 15% of the purchase price. $8.5mm X 0.15 = $1,275,000
  17. VOR Leg 1 Alicante to Lisbon

    Thanks. It will be interesting to know whether the Wx information "obtained from the OA" discloses its source. In other words, do the teams receive more than one grib file with identifying source model data so that they can evaluate which model might be working better given what they are observing on the water, or do they receive some sort of composite proprietary to the OA?
  18. Team NYYC

    Well, that's a MUCH bigger number than GD estimated in his talk with Clean. I do suspect, however, that this range is where LR will be spending, so maybe that is what it will take to be competitive. Maybe $100 - $150 gets you an also-ran campaign to build experience for the next cycle. Whatever the number, Fauth and DeVos have until the end of the year to have it raised or have a clear path to raising it. That's about 9 weeks to raise up to $260 million ($300 top range estimate less the $40 thats already in).
  19. VOR Leg 1 Alicante to Lisbon

    Anyone know for sure what models the teams are allowed to use? I had thought it was GFS and EC, but I can't find the info anywhere.
  20. VOR Leg 1 Alicante to Lisbon

    This. This is why the VOR is so cool. Looks like I have a new wallpaper image now!
  21. Good post. But the inherent conflict is that a low-ride, low-performance keelboat does not achieve the stated goal of 40 minute races (and apologies if I got the time target from the protocol wrong) ... a 40-minute race in low-performance keelboats would have to be on an INCREDIBLY short course, and then you have removed the opportunity to match race. So they MUST be thinking of a high-performance high-speed boat. Otherwise it doesn't make sense. Both BA and the NYYC teams have mentioned, in one form or another, that the design brief from what they know so far will be for a monohull that the world has never before seen.
  22. Less than 10k for a 50 year old pirate ship. Plus a whole lot of expense thereafter! Unless you happen to be in the need of the perfect vessel for a viking funeral, in which case you are in luck. http://www.ebay.com/itm/182803920227
  23. The LV (not the AC) WS

    Well, I seem to have hit a nerve. Yikes. Look, I'm not saying LE is without flaws, or even without serious flaws. Nor am I saying that he's a flag-waving stars-and-stripes-forever-singing "U-S-A"-chanting patriot. What I am saying is that as far as countries are concerned, he's been pretty clear that his preferred nations are Japan, Israel, and the US. I'm also saying that he's been pretty clear that he loves tennis and sailing and intends to use part of his fortune to support them. And I'm also pointing out that his most recent business victory (NetSuite+Oracle) was a big one and a logical point for him to step aside a bit from the business. So how much of a stretch would it be to believe that he intends to pour dollars beyond what most of us will make in our lifetimes into his vision for the future of sailing? I say that's not a difficult mental leap, and further I say that no matter how you felt about his connection to the AC that you should, as a sailor and as an enthusiast, hope he succeeds.
  24. The LV (not the AC) WS

    I think people may be misreading LE and his motivations. Is he arrogant? Sure. But petty, spiteful, and jealous? Not as much. A shrink might say not at all, that he could not have achieved what he has in life by acting through pettiness or jealousy. If you want to understand where this LVWS might be headed, I think you first need to (try) to get inside Larry's head. He's ~73 years old. His final major business objective was to get NetSuite acquired by Oracle. Done. He has little else to prove at the office. He's worth north of $50b; his salary alone is $50mm - I bet his total income is near $1bn ANNUALLY. He's in legacy-setting mode with a SHITLOAD of money with which to shape his legacy. Sure, he'll give away a ton of it, but helping 3rd-world farmers is a Bill Gates thing, not a Larry Ellison thing. He loves being an American, he loves the Bay Area, he loves Japanese culture and Japan, and he loves sailing. So where does that leave him? I'd say it makes total sense that it leaves him in the perfect position to be the France/Ecclestone of sailing and establish a new racing circuit that leverages technology and speed, that he intends to make it the premier circuit that attracts viewers from well outside the current group of sailing enthusiasts. And let us not forget the RedBull/Youth aspect to the equation. I'll wager he plans to set up a varsity (LVWS) and junior-varsity (RedBull) circuit at the same time. And I bet he'll be incorporating the US olympic sailing effort as part of all of this. When it comes time for him to depart this earth, he would then have left behind a powerhouse US Olympic team, a legitimate youth circuit to absorb former Olympians, and the premier professional sail racing circuit self sustained by sponsorships across the globe. As sailing enthusiasts, I think we should be hoping that the above is some rough facsimile of his plans, and I think we should be hoping he achieves it. As Renny said, we as sailors and fans have nothing to lose if he wants to spend part of his fortune on the future of our sport, and a lot to gain. Fwiw. 2N
  25. Oracle Team USA

    DB is spoken for already ...