EarthBM

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Everything posted by EarthBM

  1. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Wiley Sharp of Denison puts out pretty useful quarterly reports on brokered cat sales. The latest is here: Q2’2019 I put the data from Q1’2017 to Q2’2019 into my supercomputer and made some charts... Only used cats 49’ LWL and longer (cuts out a lot of 47’-48’ FPs, Leopards, and Lagoons since this is SAILING Anarchy). Also removed 3 sales that were on the market more than 5 years. This left 116 sales over 10 quarters. Chart 1: Depreciation stops at 20 years and at $200k. The two yellow dots are both Privilege 585s both sold in Jan’19, I suspect there is something dodgy about those sales, both in France. Otherwise pretty clean data. Chart 2: Average years on the market since listing. In practice probably longer, because of de-listening and re-listing. At over one year this is the true deadweight cost of selling a cat. Brokers do work for their commissions (some more than others). The difference between the offer price and the listing price is not a real cost — listing price is just a guess and a marketing signal, (accepted) offer price is the true market price. But cats spending a year until the clearing price is found, accumulating depreciation, dock fees and maintenance, is the real economic loss. So what Wiley Sharp is doing in disseminating these data is a real service to buyers and sellers, since more information = faster decisions. Chart 3: Sales have picked up in 2019 from 10 per quarter to 15-20. This could also just be more sales getting input into YW’s sales database. Chart 4: Average selling price. This picked up in Q1’2019 on the sales of 3 Outremer 5Xs (yum!), and 3 somewhat dodgy sales of Lagoon 620s (Venezuela, Turkey, and Spain — if you need to get your money out of Venezuela pay $1.5m for a Lagoon, but I don’t know). Q2’2019 is the lowest price quarter. Interestingly 55’ Wormwood Avalon appears to have sold in May this year for almost $300k. Another one that I quite liked was Pinta 52’ tri, sold in March for $225k after almost 3 years on the market. I almost went to see it, but “granite countertops” stopped me.
  2. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yes, with the mast and electronics replaced (by an alu mast)
  3. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Another update from Wiley: Not a lot of cats sold, so won’t bother updating the scatter plot charts. Besides the post-COVID-19 depreciation curves have likely shifted lower, so history is a more hazy guide here. What caught my eye was Catana 522 Kona Cat. I was on it when it was for sale and didn’t like it, but others referred to it as the best deal for a well-equipped Catana on the market and I guess that might’ve been true for the listed prices at the time. It sold in March at $325k, 45% below $599k list. At $325k I’d dislike it less I guess, but still probably would not buy it. But it puts other list prices in perspective. The 2010 62’ Lagoon sold for $395k (36% below list) is a lot of real estate for the money, not that I’d buy it either.
  4. EarthBM

    Best out of the box French Cat

    Gino Morrelli made this exact point to me when extolling the virtues of a used SA-built Gunboat.
  5. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Wiley's thoughts on the market here: A few interesting points: - sellers are usually retired, so don't really face the pressure of losing employment income. Charter sellers are in a very different boat from this perspective. - timing of the hurricane season may create some distressed situations
  6. EarthBM

    Sci Fi Fan?

  7. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    It’s not symmetric... in the upswing (90s and early 2000s — dotcom and home equity windfalls, The Race) the market clears and the boats sail, zero sum game between buyers and sellers. In the downswing (now) the boats sit and decay at the dock. A true loss to the society - negative sum game. Roughly, with $200m of used cat sales a year, 10% depreciation, and extra 6 months on the market on average due to sellers’ refusal of reality the net loss is $10m a year. Pure waste. as a corollary, if someone figures out a way to make the market less illiquid, there is $10m of value to be unlocked.
  8. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    A good question. In theory the expensive lifestyle toys “should” decline by more than discretionary purchasing power (which dropped some 20-40% in a month). Not just the financial instruments, but all the small/medium business that won’t survive. In practice the sellers will continue to lag the curve. Supply will meet demand through physical deterioration/obsolescence at the dock, like with Lord Dickie.
  9. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    Is there a date for that video?
  10. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yep... if you believe the resale market for catamarans won’t implode, buying Catana at 40% off seems okay?
  11. EarthBM

    C600

    Pretty cool multi lineup.... an 80' Ultim, 3 MOD70s, Paradox/Shockwave, Fujin, Rapido 60, and the 8-digit $$ built Allegra cat that all but came 1st in the ARC. No Gunboats though -- I guess the era of cruisable boats in this race is over, it's went into the black hole arms race. Light winds... on one hand the relatively cruisy Shockwave, Rapido, Allegra, and Fujin might suffer due to weight. On the other soma's nav magic may prove more important.
  12. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yes, looks like there are a couple of CF masts available that may fit. The logistics of shipping them and doing the rigging in Hawaii are not trivial though, and the tri-sans-the-mast is not priced as a project boat that it is. The market has a distinct feel of a Wile E. Coyte moment -- nothing has been selling for a 1-1.5 years anywhere near listed prices. At least of the boats I care about. Kind of like 2006-07 in real estate. The Margin Call movie has three strategies for the sellers in this market:
  13. EarthBM

    SailGP 2020

    what happened to the youtube vids? I was in the middle of Day 1 races yesterday (1:30hr video) and today neither that nor Day 2 are available,
  14. EarthBM

    C600

    exactly! Won't happen with C600 of course because of the golden rule, but this is what can make races more exciting in general. Or apply it to new sails, foils for similar one-design type boats. Fujin is behind because soma's not on it
  15. EarthBM

    C600

    ^^^^ that! forget about ratings, put a $$$ budget limit, the first over the line on $1m spend wins. Then you’ll see real innovation. The Race was kind of like this (With unlimited budget). R2AK was kind of like this when anyone could buy the winning boat for a fixed amount.
  16. EarthBM

    C600

    In the $$$/speed/comfort trade off Allegra seems to have gone big for the latter two
  17. EarthBM

    C600

    Looks to be where it should be. It was outsailing its rating before, and looks like ghosting straight on the rhumb line near the island paid off, compared to soma loooking for more wind further west
  18. EarthBM

    C600

    all 4 race tris seem to have hit a wall in Barbuda's lee... 1-3kt speeds this should give the cruisers time to catch up when trade winds pick up in an hour or so
  19. EarthBM

    C600

    I just went by the rating... >2 = racer around 1.5 = racer-cruiser http://caribbean600.rorc.org/downloads/2020-media/rorc_caribbean_600_entry_list_230220.pdf
  20. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    It was exactly what I expected, without any negative surprises. Just a bit old, like being in a 1950s movie, or like your grandpa’s home. The hardware is good, the engines look good, sits high in the water as I wrote. I can see it sailing well for the next 20-30 years. I think it’s priced above where it can sell, like 60-80% above, and there is a real life reason why the seller won’t budge. The standing dyform rigging looks good, but it’s from 1993! The mast looks heavy. Haven’t seen the sails.
  21. EarthBM

    Big Daddy 2020, March 7&8

    Love the rig humming in your vid! How many DIAMs are in the Bay?
  22. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    After visiting the 1993 balsa cored Razzle Dazzle 61 sitting very high on its lines n Simpson Bay I felt more comfortable with not all balsa cored boats being time bombs. This opens up Schionnings, which have the best lines of all cruising cats imho, and this one just popped up: https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2009/schionning-waterline-52-3654391/ Talisker has been on the market for a bit, Hawaii is a tricky market: http://www.catamaransite.com/Schionning-50-catamaran-for-sale-1.html and of course Barrocka: https://www.boatsonline.com.au/boats-for-sale/used/sailing-boats/schionning-waterline-1480/242678
  23. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yep. Don’t want to derail the thread, but monetary policy just exchanges one type of collateral (treasuries) for another (bank reserves). Hasn’t worked in generating inflation in Japan or Europe either. Need a fiscal irresponsibility boost to spark inflation. A certain presidential candidate may get us here depending on whether hosing the rich offsets the spending. But in any case, Consumer price inflation will just make everyone poorer and cause the Fed to crush the stock market with tighter policy. Both of which will probably destroy the leisure sailboat market as we know it.
  24. EarthBM

    Identify this Boat

    I’m not sure how to interpret that. It comes from the same source as all other performance claims - the designer himself. The usual problem with having a single source of information is selection bias (which race attempts are not included) and context (what was the competition in the Heineken cruiser class in 2006 and those other races).
  25. EarthBM

    Identify this Boat

    Does anyone actually have real polars, or race results, for CW boats?