EarthBM

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Everything posted by EarthBM

  1. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yeah, well, that’s not going to happen. If indeed inflation “re-surfaces” (unclear what specific catalyst, though, any ideas?) then the Fed’s hands will become tied for the first time in 12 years and they will be forced to tighten. This will crush the stock market and the expensive negative cash flow toys with it.
  2. EarthBM

    Identify this Boat

    Released. Maybe some lubrication could help. Or if they use bearings I imagine it’s hard to keep the alignment perfect at such distance with the three stays. Not a deal breaker, but FWIW.
  3. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Have been talking to some folks about the long-in-the-tooth 11-year old economics expansion, coming recession, and the safe harbors for financial assets. It occurred to me that holding on to a boat here is directionally the same risk as being long the stock market, only without the dividends and the upside. These are the marginal toys that get dumped first in a crisis. There might be some real bargains ahead.
  4. EarthBM

    Identify this Boat

    I was on one of the boats in the pics above. The wing masts don’t seem to freely weathervane, maybe in 25kt+ (which is when you need them to). So you better have thick fenders at the dock. The wing masts without flaps (or better yet soft flap sails like in Eagle 53) felt inefficient — below pic explains why (thickness to cord ratio on the x axis). But like the others I’d love to be proven wrong.
  5. EarthBM

    2020 Caribbean Multihull Challenge

    A great observation! The wheels keep getting reinvented! What’s next?
  6. EarthBM

    2020 Caribbean Multihull Challenge

    The guy who beat dead upwind from STX to SXM single handed for 52 hours the night before.
  7. EarthBM

    2020 Caribbean Multihull Challenge

    Giovanni said they hit something in the water....
  8. EarthBM

    2020 Caribbean Multihull Challenge

    Well there was a squall blowing over, at the end of race 1, but nothing major. Will post more. Lucky Strike was in need of some TLC after beating dead on the 25kt trade winds from St Croix. Maserati was flying pre-start.... Some boats exiting the Lagoon: Fittingly for a Multihull Challenge, Jim Brown was around, with one anarchist representin’...
  9. EarthBM

    SoCal multihull sailor gathering

    Because the secret ingredient is excitement/challenge. R2K, the most successful “new” race, seems to have it. “The Race” in 2000 had it (hooked me).
  10. EarthBM

    SoCal multihull sailor gathering

    +1 The sport is dying. Including motoring “cruisers” in N2E was a major misstep. how about R2K format from Newport to Catalina — in that wind hole the rowers will have a fair chance. Coopt the Newport Hawaiian Outrigger Canoe club.
  11. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    A lot of stuff is just sold locally, eg via Lat 38 in the US
  12. EarthBM

    Dragonfly 40

    I’ll take the under on this. Not “with ease”. Maybe for the promo shoot in flat protected Danish water.
  13. EarthBM

    Ideal lazy bag cradle for mainsail?

    +1 on UK Sails cradle. The only change I’d make is mesh bottom panels. Like trampoline nets.my zipper was exposed... no biggie, stitching goes first, twice over. Use Tenara.
  14. So what's a good manual PFD with harness? Spinlocks are cool, but are all automatic, with a separate gizmo to buy to convert to manual. Mustangs to..
  15. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Think this is the only real way one can “win” in this game. The real risk is buying a fancy big boat only to be outvoted and putting it back on the market 2 years later. Or worse, just letting it sit at the dock, collecting costs, depreciation, and maintenance, because you refuse to accept a loss. There are many dimensions along which valuations can be refined besides age: 1) boards/fixed keels 2) alu/CF mast (Jason’s comment that he much prefers alu, for lightning strike resilience, was interesting) 3) the kind of core used. Balsa is a permanent risk, but how much discount should cedar core be vs foam? 4) the kind of resin used. I think that for older boats there is bugger all difference between polyester/vinyl/epoxy because they are all overbuilt anyway, and weight difference in the real world is dominated by how much crap you carry. Any opinions about what % adjustments 1-4 warrant? My guesses: 1) -10% for fixed keels? Or just a deal breaker? 2) -5% for alu? 3) -20% for balsa, -5% for cedar? 4) no adjustment?
  16. EarthBM

    bluewater multihulls

    +1 inquiring minds want to know
  17. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Think a good test of the market health is this O55L that Soma mentioned in the other thread: https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2002/outremer-55-light-3608156/ It seems pretty clean, so should be on the upper right frontier of the depreciation curves shown before. It’s in the part of the world with a lot of disposable $$$ and used sailboat supply limited by upwind delivery. And the seller seems to understand how markets work (as opposed to sellers picking a price out of the ego basket and sitting on it for years refusing to come to terms with reality). It first listed at opportunistic $419 a couple months ago, now dropped in line with most other asking prices at $379 (signaling rational thought). A couple O55s sold in high 200s recently (assuming this one https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2004/outremer-55-light-3620393/ passes the survey/sea trial and actually sells). So if this one sells in low 300s (cleaner, newer sails and equipment, maybe) the market is healthy. If it sells in mid 300s the market is picking up. If it sells in high 200s the market is softening (although with the older 2002 hull perhaps it will just mean the boat isn’t as clean as the ad suggests). Or perhaps the owner refuses to follow the path of price discovery to its logical conclusion and the boat just sits at $379 for years, in which case we learn nothing.
  18. EarthBM

    2020 Caribbean Multihull Challenge

    I don’t know, man This SL33 looks unwieldy, but probably fun around cans in the bay, if there is another like it to race against. Why not establish a multihull haven at some undisclosed location in the Bahamas, bring all your toys (don’t forget Antrim), and organize your own races?
  19. EarthBM

    2020 Caribbean Multihull Challenge

    Getting out of the Cordillera shadow all the way out to Isla del Coco should work, no? If Keith is serious about selling Skateaway at a premium he should enter the race and beat a $1m+ boat or two. Tritium is sitting at the dock in Long Beach, waiting for a syndicate of 5 like-minded ppl to bring it to the Caribbean, get a sponsor, and run proper campaigns.
  20. EarthBM

    Dragonfly 40

    I dunno... a builder that puts twin helms next to each other to emulate monohull look doesn’t seem to care about weight much.
  21. EarthBM

    bluewater multihulls

    Of the people with years of trimaran experience here, how many have done a single handed overnight passage where they could sleep? I know I haven’t. I admit to drifting off a few times on watch at night — perhaps 5-10 mins max (which felt like longer when you wake up). I was always outside and perhaps a squall or some other weather bogey would’ve awakened me. But it felt wrong. [Insert Etienne’s story here]. In a mono, it seems that sleeping when single-handed is less of a tail risk. On the separate subject of the right boat... would I have kept my Dragonfly 35 to retire and sail the world had I remained single? Hell yes (singlehanded risk notwithstanding). A part of the attraction would be extended stays in small European marinas. Would I have preferred a much lighter boat with less furniture and more intelligent / high tech solutions that reduce weight? Yes, but it wouldn’t be a deal killer. People make their own choices and collectively form the market — the only superhuman intelligence that actually exists. The market has spoken. On yet another subject, why is no one mentioning Juniper 2? Just curious. Also, “Buddy” that just sold seemed perfect for the application.
  22. EarthBM

    bluewater multihulls

    LOA for LOA the Dragonfly will be about 2x more expensive than a comparably nice mono. $ for $ you are looking at a 50’ mono vs a 35’ Dragonfly. With 2.5x more space and load capacity in the mono. Most cruising multi are at or below hull speed most of the time, unless unloaded and pushed. And anywhere outside the Bahamas you don’t really need the shallow draft all that much (nice to have though).
  23. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Sailboat market in 2020s:
  24. EarthBM

    New outremer model coming

    Call it TC5 (très compliqué) and see how it stacks up against TS5...
  25. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    This is an argument for matching the standing rigging to the mast. CF has a small negative thermal expansion coefficient, like dyneema. Aluminum has one of the highest coefficients among metals and about twice that of stainless steel.