EarthBM

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Everything posted by EarthBM

  1. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    What do you use for creep — lashings, turnbuckles, something clever?
  2. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    Are there examples of synthetic standing rigging failing? Think we are still learning the longevity limits because they haven’t been reached yet. Kind of like with fiberglass strength. Colligo has some good info.
  3. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    Looks very clean. I almost flew down there last time around when the mast was listed as “carbon fiber”. Turns out it’s cedar wrapped in CF? How much does that weigh compared to alu or CF? Balsa core is a worry with all Schionnings... like asbestos in buildings. Why is the cross beam placed half way? As if the bows were extended after the fact. Sterns look extended too.
  4. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yep. High asking prices are a form of story telling too... It’s the easiest form of story telling, but clearly not the cheapest (accumulating storage, maintenance, depreciation) or the most effective.
  5. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    I once worked for an offshore affiliate of a certain diamond company. I started young and cynical (=stupid), thinking it’s just a scam, selling tiny rocks for exorbitant $$$. Over time I realized that what it was selling were symbols and stories, humans need those. Just like (some) movies are worth more than the film they are printed on (or memory space on a flash card). So I think trimarans are that, stories. Tales of fast passages, round the world races, Waterworld. Not of comfort at anchor. Telling stories takes skill. The French are good at that. The best stories (apart from Spirit’s) are races. Like Mama Tried in R2AK, or Morticia in 2018 C600. There are some regional legends in Oz and France. When I see Faamu Sami (years if not decades on the market), I see a $100k tri that could be a $250k tri if it had a good story. Hammerhead 54 is telling a new story via its recent YouTube vids. Maybe it will sell maybe it won’t. If it doesn’t it’s still a good $150k tri. Stories (positive or negative) explain why the recent Outremers are punching above their weight somewhat (although the Vagabonde’s story seems out of steam), why Rapido or Tritium are not selling (ARC dismasting and TransPac damage). It seems that there are fewer starry-eyed dreamers to sell the stories to (people with money are getting old, the young have neither money nor ambition), but also fewer able story-tellers. Spirit, Anasazi, La Vagabondes before the baby, a couple other youtubers. Think their skills are worth something, but monetizing them is hard.
  6. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    I remember that Hammerhead when it was for sale in 2011 for $300k or so. I was really tempted, but working in So Cal limited my docking options a lot. here are the charts for 40-48’ cats (don’t have smaller). 2017-2019
  7. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yes, that’s what catamarans offer. The downside are narrow hulls limiting efficient space use. A tri like Neel divides that hull space further. The sailing advantages of a tri are a more positive stability curve (mo’ heel = mo’ righting moment, until the main hull flies) and information (leeward ama) allowing sailing closer to the envelope. Neel seems compromised on either. Like a cat but with three narrow unlivable hulls. Think a TS5 would sail circles around Neels, that’s why Neels chose a different ARC route.
  8. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Do you have any thoughts on the O64L in Grenada? The price is gravitating towards a clearing level — it will probably trade in mid/high $300s Just because there aren’t many tris >40’. I have some personal experience with my DF 35 that says 10%/yr depreciation is about right. Although with South African Rand depreciating -50% as well as Chilean Peso and Aussie$ both -30% during my ownership the last decade may have been on the weaker side. We’re also in the middle of the baby boomers “getting too old for this sht” wave. I love tris, they are the perfect sailboat. But even more so than “performance” cruising cats, they are in no man’s land. No liveaboard space (unless you got lucky with a life partner like the Spirit) and not that exciting performance-wise anymore now that foiling is maturing. So can’t think of a way to synthesize the info into a “market”. Just interesting individual stories. Will Rapido reach escape velocity? N53 looks like a one-off example of cool but expensive execution. Will anyone find a cheap CF rig for Hughes/Perry 63 (still very optimistically priced for a “project” boat)? Can anyone figure out how to make the costs of running Tritium make sense? How much did Buddy sell for and will ego keep Skateaway from finding its new life? Can the other Hughes 63 Atlantis rise again? What happened to Greg Lynn’s Girlfriend? Will we see epic stories from the ex-Anasazi crew on Thunderbird, ages 2-60? How can Neel sell so many tris despite the looks? Did Epstein kill himself? I should stop here.
  9. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yep, it’s all a guess. It’s based on assuming that 2028 model year Catana 47X will be at least as much, or likely more, desirable compared to 2017 Catana 47, as 47 was compared to 2006 Catana 471. Its based on assuming that inflation in technology is a quaint last century concept. It’s based on assuming that catamaran popularity growth will be as strong over the next 11 years as the last 11 years (a challenging assumption with current demographics). It assumes that....... as to the two data points... the slope of of the scatterplot’s frontier is -8.5%. The frontier represents the highest prices for any given year, a kind of a best case scenario for the stuff not going pear-shaped at the individual boat level.
  10. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Forgot to mention... 18 sales of 49’ and longer cats were off the Q3 29-sale high, but still above 2017 and 2018 pace. I am less confident in these numbers because Wiley Sharp’s 2019 data show fewer Q1-Q3 sales than originally reported, so cross-sectional comparisons like price vs age are more reliable than the time series of the number of sales. Also that $2m+ Privilege was sold in Spain, so it may or may not include a tax dodge component in its price.
  11. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Interesting sales in Q4. I would really like to know more about Schionning 1500 G-force that sold in Portugal... The two 47’ Catanas give a good illustration of depreciation for a quality brand name cat at exactly 7% per year over 11 years. Of the cats currently on the market the Outremer 55 Light in the Bahamas went from listed to pending pretty quickly because it’s priced right, at high $200s. The depreciation curve is still consistent (only cats 49’ and longer in this scatterplot chart, the $2m+ Privilege 64 is the prime candidate for ouch depreciation):
  12. EarthBM

    Sci Fi Fan?

    If Neel made a catamaran...
  13. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    My earlier conclusion was that cats stop depreciating at 20 years old and $200k. But seeing ads like this I’m not sure that 20y is the sweet spot — you have to start replacing apparently EVERYTHING in 15-20y cats. Look at the description: https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2003/catana-582-3618987/
  14. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    The market can grow. Visionaries create markets. Think Lasers, Hobie Cats, J-boats. If there is a thriving one-design circuit you can cannibalize Outremer and Catana sales, and then convert some condomaran buyers. TS5 can become the 911 of cats, not the overpriced over complicated Gunboats or less overpriced by somewhat directionless Outremers. They can probably sell 100 or more this way. No BS, no giving away TS5s to youtubers, no spending on costly publicity and boat shows. Just drive a hard volume bargain with carbon spar and sail makers, don’t customize too much. And above all keep it TS. Less is more. The real issue is execution... I’d reach out to Alwoplast now that their peso is 800 to the buck. Or South Africa. They need to move quickly. Producing 4-5 TS5s a year in Lorient won’t get them the critical mass before something new takes the attention away.
  15. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    There you go... Catana is buying Magic Yachts in Tunisia Will make Bali range there, double Catana range production in France... Too bad it’s not Marsaudon increasing TS5 production... A no brainer really, and the stock market likes it... means they probably didn’t overpay:
  16. EarthBM

    ARC / ARC+ 2019 - Multihulls

    Right next to the finish, it looks like they either simply wanted to go to Martinique, or they gave the win to Hallucine that was skippered by Martinique’s pre-eminent sailing charter boss.
  17. EarthBM

    ARC / ARC+ 2019 - Multihulls

    Yep, most cruising cats are at hull speed, 150-180nm days. So get a 70’ mono for same $, more hull speed, more payload, never capsize, etc.
  18. EarthBM

    ARC / ARC+ 2019 - Multihulls

    Perhaps on the “win on Sunday, sell on Monday” logic, this TS 52.8 popped up: https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2011/catamaran-ts-52-8-3615339/ while not a TS5 it looks very similar. Does anyone know how many were produced? Is this one different from other TS52s, which I was once told are quite a bit heavier than TS5s?
  19. EarthBM

    ARC / ARC+ 2019 - Multihulls

    And TS42 ahead of 5X...
  20. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    They seem to persistently survive on zero or negative equity. Which makes me think that reported losses are just a part of some tax optimization strategy, with true profits paid out offshore. For example as design licensing or marketing fees. A couple of similar non-market factors seen in used boat prices: - wife/divorce... the boat is part of a divorce settlement but the Captain gets to use it until it’s sold, the price is set to never sell. - destitute retirement... the liveaboard seller has a high fixed cost of repotting himself on land, sets the list price to that, regardless of where the boat can sell.
  21. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Gotta love Nordic transparency... Both are losing €4-5m a year for 2-3 years running. The way to make a small fortune in sailing is to start with a large fortune... In case you thought that the demographic factors discussed earlier are just abstract theoretical BS... The reason why companies go bankrupt so rapidly is because the equity cushion is thin, like 5-20%. So with each bankruptcy it just resets by wiping out the previous equity holders and making the debt holders new equity holders. A used boat can be thought of as a company with 100% equity (assuming it’s not financed). So that 100% keeps depreciating, but there is no bankruptcy-like trigger event forcing to mark to reality. So you end up with gigantic 40-70% gaps between the listed price and where the boat can be sold.
  22. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    FWIW, I think the capital Investment needed to produce $1k in slip rental cash flows is a fraction of that in real estate. There’re are even mooring balls in Newport Beach that cost $60k for the right to pay a $50-100 rental to the city govt. Some mooring balls in Avalon (Catalina Is) sell for $100,000s... Good business if you know how to “work with” the local government. It’s kind of a no man’s land because sea bottom below high tide is state property.
  23. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Safe Harbor Marinas? Looks like a private company too, but it’s a lot easier to mortgage assets with recurring revenues, like slips. In the language of debt financing they are effectively the most senior to other cash outflows in boat ownership. The ranking of cash flows in terms of disappearance in a downturn: 1. New and used boat purchases 2. Capital maintenance (like standing rigging, new sails) 3. Recurring maintenance (bottom cleaning, zincs) 4. Slip rent and taxes. So now we see 1 going through capital destruction, 2 is next (sail lofts not a great business I think), 3 and 4 will probably survive. Assume you are looking at an opportunity with SHM?
  24. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Everyone else is private, Nautor Swan is private, as is GLY. Oyster went bankrupt last year, privately owned now. Reported £83m order book at the time. Bavaria went bankrupt last year too... The conclusion is that the same demographic factors discussed above are wiping our capital invested in making new boats as a business, but there is always someone who buys them in bankruptcy and continues the struggle.
  25. EarthBM

    ARC / ARC+ 2019 - Multihulls

    1. YB tracker is brilliant! 2. It seems that skill (or endurance, risk tolerance) is at least as important as the kind of boat you sail. 3. ARC+ seems to be between Neels and Catanas. I bet the family couple sailing Catana 65 is probably more comfortable than the Neel just in front of it. 4. I find the main ARC more interesting. Both TS’s keeping up with the Gunboat and 5X that cost multiples of $$$ is heartening — it’s not all about $$$! I think TS5 Hallucine has some some real sailing talent/experience on board