EarthBM

Members
  • Content Count

    488
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by EarthBM

  1. EarthBM

    Boat 4 sale; not mine

    Why do you think that is? because you can push them more on a mono, given no risk of capsize?
  2. EarthBM

    Boat 4 sale; not mine

    Well, yes apart from the N2E and Transpac with Mighty Merloe, are there others? Fastnet and C600 had the same 2-3 MOD 70s fighting it out among themselves but no one else close on elapsed. Ultimes were built for trans-oceanic races. Were they ever in a race with MOD70s or ORMAs (not a rhetorical question, I really want to know)? Think their biggest race was 2018 RdR, where 2 finished close, 2 finished weeks apart, and 2 "retired". There is probably a way to put together an exciting race circuit with assorted one-time 'round the world record beaters, just doesn't look like anyone figured that out yet.
  3. EarthBM

    Boat 4 sale; not mine

    Mighty Merloe beating MOD70s is an interesting subject. I suspect that it’s down to the crew and local knowledge, but would love to hear more. Did it sell? Are there other races where MOD70s, ORMA 60s and Ultimes race together? I guess it would be informative to ask Tritium’s current owner why he’s selling and wants to do the next Transpac in a sled.
  4. EarthBM

    Boat 4 sale; not mine

    But you won’t... not boat-on-boat. New ones will kills the old ones. If absolute SOG per $ we’re the target I agree with you. But the target is SOG relative to others. The only honest race is fixed $ budget. Here’s $1m, first around the globe in one piece wins. And even there the resale value needs to be managed. A $1m budget where you’re okay to lose it all is more than $1m budget where you think you can sell what’s left for $500k.
  5. EarthBM

    Boat 4 sale; not mine

    Three general racing types: 1. One design or close (class 40, multi 50). The best resale. Think J-boats, Lasers, Figaros. 2. Cruiser-racer PHRF racers. Dual use makes resale okay due to cruisability. 3. Development, “no holds barred” racing. America’s cup, etc. The highest outlay for the least resale. If you’re not competitive anymore against other cutting edge boats utility drops to zero, or negative, considering the effort and costs.
  6. EarthBM

    Where is the limit on an f27/f28?

    If burying the lee ama is no big deal then you don’t have the critical information where it actually matters. Once the lee ama is submerged you’re in the negative stability zone (not as steeply negative as flying the main hull, but negative) — more heeling momentum brings less righting momentum. I think the right cruising tri design needs the amas sized so that burying one is the “oh shit” moment, not the “let’s see if I can ride this one out” moment.
  7. EarthBM

    Over the horizon

    Curious as to what the energy loss rate is for: a) hand-steering vs b) rowing machine to alternator to battery to auto-pilot chain. Looks like 80% loss? Like 40% at each stage? Soma and Dave — what are your real-time strategies for Gonzalo? Euro model says its nuthin’ (because it thinks it will hit land in Venezuela).
  8. EarthBM

    Over the horizon

    I was thinking it may serve an extra motivator for exercise... can also attach a rowing machine to it.
  9. EarthBM

    Over the horizon

    I always thought Tesla’s power wall was a way to eventually recycle old car batteries... Dave — you once said you have a stationary bike for cardio on board. Any thoughts of attaching it to a generator? Or it’s simply not enough KWHs for the hassle?
  10. EarthBM

    Over the horizon

    Hey soma, any reason you chose AGM over Li-po? And have you estimated the weight cost of A/C?
  11. EarthBM

    Is this what we have come to?

    Didn’t see many complaints about the same thing on Rapido 50 renderings:
  12. EarthBM

    AC45F Lux for sale

    How many athletic men in helmets does it need to launch and sail it? I’m sure it’s a nice boat, carbon fiber and all. But possibly an example of how the clearing price for old race multihulls might actually be negative. Which is a shame.
  13. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Wiley Sharp of Denison puts out pretty useful quarterly reports on brokered cat sales. The latest is here: Q2’2019 I put the data from Q1’2017 to Q2’2019 into my supercomputer and made some charts... Only used cats 49’ LWL and longer (cuts out a lot of 47’-48’ FPs, Leopards, and Lagoons since this is SAILING Anarchy). Also removed 3 sales that were on the market more than 5 years. This left 116 sales over 10 quarters. Chart 1: Depreciation stops at 20 years and at $200k. The two yellow dots are both Privilege 585s both sold in Jan’19, I suspect there is something dodgy about those sales, both in France. Otherwise pretty clean data. Chart 2: Average years on the market since listing. In practice probably longer, because of de-listening and re-listing. At over one year this is the true deadweight cost of selling a cat. Brokers do work for their commissions (some more than others). The difference between the offer price and the listing price is not a real cost — listing price is just a guess and a marketing signal, (accepted) offer price is the true market price. But cats spending a year until the clearing price is found, accumulating depreciation, dock fees and maintenance, is the real economic loss. So what Wiley Sharp is doing in disseminating these data is a real service to buyers and sellers, since more information = faster decisions. Chart 3: Sales have picked up in 2019 from 10 per quarter to 15-20. This could also just be more sales getting input into YW’s sales database. Chart 4: Average selling price. This picked up in Q1’2019 on the sales of 3 Outremer 5Xs (yum!), and 3 somewhat dodgy sales of Lagoon 620s (Venezuela, Turkey, and Spain — if you need to get your money out of Venezuela pay $1.5m for a Lagoon, but I don’t know). Q2’2019 is the lowest price quarter. Interestingly 55’ Wormwood Avalon appears to have sold in May this year for almost $300k. Another one that I quite liked was Pinta 52’ tri, sold in March for $225k after almost 3 years on the market. I almost went to see it, but “granite countertops” stopped me.
  14. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yes, with the mast and electronics replaced (by an alu mast)
  15. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Another update from Wiley: Not a lot of cats sold, so won’t bother updating the scatter plot charts. Besides the post-COVID-19 depreciation curves have likely shifted lower, so history is a more hazy guide here. What caught my eye was Catana 522 Kona Cat. I was on it when it was for sale and didn’t like it, but others referred to it as the best deal for a well-equipped Catana on the market and I guess that might’ve been true for the listed prices at the time. It sold in March at $325k, 45% below $599k list. At $325k I’d dislike it less I guess, but still probably would not buy it. But it puts other list prices in perspective. The 2010 62’ Lagoon sold for $395k (36% below list) is a lot of real estate for the money, not that I’d buy it either.
  16. EarthBM

    Best out of the box French Cat

    Gino Morrelli made this exact point to me when extolling the virtues of a used SA-built Gunboat.
  17. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Wiley's thoughts on the market here: A few interesting points: - sellers are usually retired, so don't really face the pressure of losing employment income. Charter sellers are in a very different boat from this perspective. - timing of the hurricane season may create some distressed situations
  18. EarthBM

    Sci Fi Fan?

  19. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    It’s not symmetric... in the upswing (90s and early 2000s — dotcom and home equity windfalls, The Race) the market clears and the boats sail, zero sum game between buyers and sellers. In the downswing (now) the boats sit and decay at the dock. A true loss to the society - negative sum game. Roughly, with $200m of used cat sales a year, 10% depreciation, and extra 6 months on the market on average due to sellers’ refusal of reality the net loss is $10m a year. Pure waste. as a corollary, if someone figures out a way to make the market less illiquid, there is $10m of value to be unlocked.
  20. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    A good question. In theory the expensive lifestyle toys “should” decline by more than discretionary purchasing power (which dropped some 20-40% in a month). Not just the financial instruments, but all the small/medium business that won’t survive. In practice the sellers will continue to lag the curve. Supply will meet demand through physical deterioration/obsolescence at the dock, like with Lord Dickie.
  21. EarthBM

    Cat tails from over the horizon

    Is there a date for that video?
  22. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yep... if you believe the resale market for catamarans won’t implode, buying Catana at 40% off seems okay?
  23. EarthBM

    C600

    Pretty cool multi lineup.... an 80' Ultim, 3 MOD70s, Paradox/Shockwave, Fujin, Rapido 60, and the 8-digit $$ built Allegra cat that all but came 1st in the ARC. No Gunboats though -- I guess the era of cruisable boats in this race is over, it's went into the black hole arms race. Light winds... on one hand the relatively cruisy Shockwave, Rapido, Allegra, and Fujin might suffer due to weight. On the other soma's nav magic may prove more important.
  24. EarthBM

    Used cat market

    Yes, looks like there are a couple of CF masts available that may fit. The logistics of shipping them and doing the rigging in Hawaii are not trivial though, and the tri-sans-the-mast is not priced as a project boat that it is. The market has a distinct feel of a Wile E. Coyte moment -- nothing has been selling for a 1-1.5 years anywhere near listed prices. At least of the boats I care about. Kind of like 2006-07 in real estate. The Margin Call movie has three strategies for the sellers in this market:
  25. EarthBM

    SailGP 2020

    what happened to the youtube vids? I was in the middle of Day 1 races yesterday (1:30hr video) and today neither that nor Day 2 are available,