Matagi

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Everything posted by Matagi

  1. Matagi

    Coolboats to admire

    Hello beauty...
  2. Matagi

    Caption Contest

    Will the water ballast impact the rating?
  3. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    The data leads to that. Note how v2 (South African variant) now also visible in the nextstrain data. Data for UK, pretty large datachunk, recent.
  4. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    UK variant 40 to 52 per cent more infectious per this (well founded) estimate. Estimates for Denmark and US similar. F*ck.
  5. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    I believe the orange box is where Covid 19 is suspected (no definite answers here), the point SARS represents the 2002 virus.
  6. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    The honest answer is: I have no idea. From a numbers point of view, I would suspect that there is something like a sweet spot, an optimum, where the 'product' of deadliness and contagiousness lead to the most deaths. But it's very hard to say. Re the CDC, the 2002 SARS was deadlier and maybe more infectious. The countermeasures were much less severe than today and still no pandemic like the one we see today.
  7. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Good explanation why a more contagious virus is overall more deadly than... a more deadly one. In short: it's the larger numbers a steeper exponential curve leads to.
  8. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Science doesn't. Scientists do.
  9. Matagi

    European Travel Guesses?

    And the Oscar for worst sock puppet goes to Blatant Echo and Westcoast in...
  10. Matagi

    Coolboats to admire

    Here is a boat that belongs in this category more than so many others. I wonder why I haven't thought about it earlier. It's Timpe Te, a double-ended gaff cutter from 1948, so built shortly after WW II. Although built following the lines of fishing boats from Northeast Germany's Rugen coast, she has mostly sailed on the North Sea and the German bight, and lives in Flensborg Sound today. Illustration by P.Tutz Abroad, few may know that Germany has an extensive wadden sea, the largest in the world to my knowledge, with many small islands where sometimes only four or five families live, more only on the larger ones like Hooge. These islands are called 'Halligen', and they have no dykes to shelter them from floods, only the houses are builts an 'Wurten', tiny hills, 3 or 4 meters above the storm flood waterline. All houses have special shelter rooms aloft, nowadays. Anyway, this boat belonged to the teacher of one of the Halligen once, and he sailed it on the wadden sea and to the mainland. What a way to commute. She was also originally Bermuda rigged and got her magnificient gaff rigg only later. In Germany, she is a well-known boat, having risen to fame as 'Dulcibella' in the German adaptation of Childers' 'The Riddle of the Sands'. Here is footage from that movie, Burkhart Klaussner at the helm, a very good German actor who played Davies, and Peter Sattmann, who played the part of Carruthers. Many years later, this boat was handed from her former owner and restaurator to David, a young man from Flensburg. He and some friends took it on themselves to keep her well-maintained. They set up a crowdfunding initative and have since kept her in the good status she is. You can follow their adventures on Instagram. Now, David and his companion Alex, a young engineer have set themselves a new target. They want to give Timpe Te an electric motor. But: not an expensive off-the-shelf solution like the T**dos etc. They want to prove that you can use existing gear such as the prop and the well and convert it to electric propulsion. I love that idea and spirit: this old lady as a prototype for a non-expensive e-prop solution. Count me in! If you want to support this idea, you can do so here. If you donate, you will receive a 'Dankeschön' a gift in return, ranging from a postcard of Timpe Te to a one-day trip to some beautiful islands in Flensborg sound during summer. Funding remains open until the 20th of January. So at least cheer them on and follow the project here or even consider giving a little bit. C. Irrgang / Yacht See more illustrations by Peter Tutz, ased on the eighties movie here: And read Timpe Te's raw data here. Btw: I'm in no way affiliated, I just know these guys via Instagram and I love how they maintain the dream boat of my childhood - my father had a very similar one...
  11. Matagi

    Phil  Spector  DTS

    Do you look at the creepy or the talent axis?
  12. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Note this sharp rise in mutation cases in Denmark, report from Reuters. Excerpt: "Between mid-November and Jan. 10, 256 Danes were infected with the new variant from Britain, the State Serum Institute (SSI) said in a report published on Saturday. That corresponded to 1.3% of all positive tests genetically analysed during that period. In the first week of January, the percentage share of positive tests with the mutation was 3.6%, a growth rate which worried authorities and prompted the lockdown extension."
  13. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Oh, btw, this happened in Vienna this afternoon:
  14. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Austrian media reports that out of 83 samples, 14 samples (17%) are believed to be mutant variants, following an initial PCR test from University of Vienna. Proper sequencing will follow to verify. Other positive tests with the new variant were found in other parts of Austria over the last days.
  15. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Good news is: some countries in Europe get serious about sequencing. Nextstrain shows that 29% of all available datasets (701 of 2467) have been submitted in the last seven days, while the other ca. 70% stem from all the year before that. Some countries seem to have abandoned sequencing in the mean time altogether. Bad news are: a) denominator still waaaay to small to show a clear picture. And b) what we see, and what those who make decisions see is not good either. Nextstrain shows the 'UK variant' being dominant in the sequenced samples. Of course, highly skewed numbers as the UK probably counts for a large proportion of the sequenced samples. Yet Spain, Portugal and Ireland showing a picture that is coherent with what we see in the UK. I think we will shortly see much tighter border restrictions. Esp. Travel between UK/Northern Ireland and Ireland (Currently EXEMPT from restrictions, a madness...) and Ireland to rest of EU (France esp.) already eyed by German government, reportedly discussing border closure to France.
  16. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Also relevant here, by extension... The CDC fears the UK variant will become dominant in the US by March if countermeasures not taken, writes WSJ.
  17. Matagi

    The American Experiment

    The CDC fears the UK variant will become dominant in the US by March if countermeasures not taken, writes WSJ.
  18. Matagi

    Coolboats to admire

    La Vie en Rose Gorgeous, I love this open space downstairs. Full story over at woodenboat.com
  19. Matagi

    The American Experiment

    Sadly not. Keep in mind, the Civil War lasted four years.
  20. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Not a 'scientist', a scientist. He co-developped Nextstrain. Trevor Bedford's vita: I'm an Associate Member at the Fred Hutch in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and the Computational Biology Program. I'm also an Affiliate Associate Professor in the Department of Genome Sciences and the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Washington. My research program focuses on phylodynamic analysis of pathogen sequence data with an intent of making inferences that are actionable to public health. This research program spans a number of viral systems including seasonal and avian influenza, Ebola, Zika, SIV, MERS-CoV, dengue and mumps. This requires development of mathematical and statistical methods to integrate infectious disease sequence data into evolutionary and epidemiological models. I've co-developed the open-source Nextstrain platform that aims to harness the scientific and public health potential of pathogen genome data by providing a continually-updated view of publicly available data alongside powerful analytic and visualization tools. This platform is used by the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) to aid in vaccine strain selection for seasonal influenza virus. This platform was also highlighted during the Zika epidemic in the Americas and the Ebola epidemic in West Africa as a central source for data sharing and up-to-date insights. I have published over 60 scientific journal articles and my awards include a MIRA R35 investigator award from NIGMS, a Pew Biomedical Scholar Award and the NIH / HHMI / Wellcome Trust Open Science Prize.
  21. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    This series of tweets is captivating and frightening. It is the best 'plain and short english' summary regarding the mutations. It also puts the idea to rest, that these are just some among many. They may rather only be the first. Quote: There had been little evolution in the RBD until ~Oct 2020 when we saw RBD mutations start to spread. Perhaps chief among mutations of interest are E484K and N501Y which mutate nearby sites in the RBD. Have a look at how quickly the two variants displace a significant portion of the 'old' variants. The variants in the UK, South Africa and Brazil all mutate significantly faster than the average, here is the UK: Bedford has a noteworthy idea as to the origin of these mutations. He notes the speculative nature himself, but says: My (highly speculative!) hypothesis is that the emergence of these variant viruses arises in cases of chronic infection during which the immune system places great pressure on the virus to escape immunity and the virus does so by getting really good at getting into cells. So per this hypothesis, when the virus reaches someone whose immune systeme already puts a lot of stress on the virus 'on entry' because of a pre-existing chronic disease, mutations that overcome this pressure by being very effective to penetrate cells would at some point dominate. He cites a number of studies where this phenomenon has been researched and partly proven in the past. He leaves a very chilling thouht for the end of his 19 tweets: Again, this hypothesis is highly speculative at this point, but separately, the fact that we've observed 3 variants of concern emerge since September suggests that there are likely more to come.
  22. Matagi

    Coolboats to admire

    This is next level! I love it, thanks so much!
  23. Matagi

    Front Page - Retro

    3 to 5 per cent, I think.
  24. Matagi

    Front Page - Retro

    Gofundme is surely also an alternative for that?
  25. Matagi

    The UK Variant

    Everybody listen up: the scientistician has spoken! Everything is in order. Says his gut. Write it in stone and make it law!