crashdog

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About crashdog

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  1. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    The Frost speech was impossible to get through. If I had been in the room, I definitely would have started a game of drunk punch buggy with the next closest six listeners, to stop from falling asleep. I know we have to try to decipher the text, but I would have had to tack a zero onto my billing rate just to get through it. It was entirely obfuscatory. Or in Jack's terms, completely copro-copulatory... In setting the frame for negotiation, this kind of opening statement generally establishes a hard environment, where there is no room for value adding, only for racing to the bottom of nothing. This approach is usable for negotiating the trade of bronze ball bearings for ball bearings made of bronze. For anything else, it is less than ideal. Because of the simplicity of the framework, competent negotiators will have gamed this approach so many times that the escape ramps will be well covered. Mr Frost appears to be a nice enough fellow, and probably a hoot at a dinner party. I feel sorry for him.
  2. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    This UK thing is starting to look more and more Magic Christian...
  3. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    In the UK markets, it is probably a good idea to start to halve-out, if you haven't already. The capital market is not at the bottom yet. There are definitely areas of bounce, but the inertia is not substantial enough to make a good press of it, and there are far better opportunities elsewhere. The bottom of the non-commercial property market (in reference to the general GB equity market) probably bottomed in November 2019, so if you are prepared to play against the long trend in the UK economy, then halving-in would be a good idea. However, I note an interesting dispute arbitrage opportunity at M&S. I do not think that dispute will resolve into a buy/sell arrangement. Rather, a real shotgun may be in play.
  4. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    As to support from EU for Ireland reunification, the immediate question that pops up is what this means for Gibraltar? How wide and how far back should Brussels cast its historical wrongs net?
  5. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    The large swing of history, which brought Brexit and the attendant focus on the Ireland border question, is quite evident in the Ireland election, despite the claim that Brexit was a minor issue. It may be just rhetoric but the McDonald comment on reunification is compelling for anyone who cares about Irish history. How much did Varadkar's mini summit with Johnson tar him, I wonder. For me, it was significant, and if I had been a voter in Ireland, I would have seen his amity with Johnson as facilitating the status quo in the UK Ire relationship.
  6. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Oui, c'est sa la formule
  7. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Well, we know that BoJo prefers single mothers over housewives...
  8. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    interesting opinion by Martin Wolfe in FT today - "The UK is about to shoot itself in both feet". Good stuff if you can give it a read. Basically, it talks about how the UK could respond to the EU's technocratic position. But in reference to your latest, Jack, I will quote: "A last response is that, in the end, Mr Johnson will retreat from his red lines. That is what he did last October over the Irish border issue, when he accepted the economic dismemberment of his own country, something his predecessor had refused outright, all the while denying he had done any such thing. The ability to surrender while successfully insisting that one has not is a form of genius. Maybe, the prime minister can find a description for humiliating surrenders that dress them up as great victories. I would certainly not put it past him." I wonder how likely it is that the oven will produce BRINO in a micorwaveable WTO Only wrapper melted to the deal for dinner. Served, of course, with falanagist changes to domestic law soup, just to remind everyone that this is the Animal Farm.
  9. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Thot you sed Julian Bethwaite there and said to myself "hmmm, first foot they put right all this time..." Then I red it again and realised i woz rong.
  10. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Actually, it's quite sharp. If an Englishman enters into a trade agreement, and in the process finds that the counterparty is not friendly, they have it right there in the coinage, that, as long as the payment mechanism is 50p coins, they are not obligated to pay. All for the want of a comma, to quote some bench wag or other.
  11. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    I agree Jack. This definitely has the feeling of the beginnings of 1984 all over it, although maybe it is more Brazil. I am paranoid, but I now hate travelling through England to get to Scotland. Fortunately, I still have 11 months of relatively civilized travel through AMS to ABZ before that gets shot in the head.
  12. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    A little tap under that right hand and BJ picks up a bit of a nose bleed, yes? When did they stop teaching the sweet science at school, I wonder.
  13. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Yes, fired from an organisation that is well recognized as being half bright. So double-dumb. I know, I know, childish of me...
  14. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Leo, a more realistic comparison for the USA (and Canada / Aus, for that matter) is the EU, which is really decentralised. A relatively small EU government apparatus and most fiscal flows occuring at the state level, with some of those states very decentralised. All supported with a proportional representative democracy. EU and USA are almost completely comparable, with USA 200 years older and based on an older political philosophy. Anyway, I think your point is excellent that it is the governance mechanism that really matters. In the UK, looking at the effects of Brexit decision making on the North and West highlights the fundamental failure to evolve the political system. The UK is one of the most, if not the most centralised economy in the OECD (well, OK, Luxembourg, but come on...). It is not a coincidence.
  15. crashdog

    Brexit WTF, WTF

    Venture investment needs to be looked at in conjunction with broader flows of investment and against whole economy numbers. Venture, for all its shiny attractiveness, is an idiosyncratic mechanism. It fuels growth, but at the most basic, successful venture takes 10 years. So throwing a few billion pounds into the sector has very little immediate result. In addition, the average return on venture investment is on the order of -.3. So being the leader in deploying capital also leads to the result of being the leader in losing capital in the sector. Industrial investment, with a WAACC heavily tilted to debt, tends to yield much more rapid and stable growth and a much greater impact on a national economy. To drive an innovation economy, corporate venturing and industrial research and development is much more effective. What are the statistics on the latter two sectors in the UK economy v other OECD economies? I wonder if Marlow is a venture guy, a PE guy, or just a pub guy...