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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  

Rule69

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  1. Stay safe. Wind field based on aircraft obs:
  2. Grim.
  3. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 117 121 124 125 125 123 119 113 104 97 95 94 LAND (KM) 460 494 511 421 331 148 -11 78 85 160 255 392 524 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.1 23.4 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.1 61.8 62.5 63.2 64.7 66.1 67.6 69.2 70.4 71.3 72.1 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.5% 50.5% 45.0% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.3% 59.7% 47.9% 38.1% 33.4% 27.7% 6.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 54.7% 24.2% 23.2% 7.7% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 45.2% 44.8% 38.7% 23.5% 11.9% 9.3% 2.1% 0.5%
  4. Sat derived winds. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?product=mpsatwnd&storm_identifier=AL152017&product_filename=2017AL15_MPSATWND_201709182100 4
  5. Thanks for posting that. It's Levi Cowan's site and I think Sean stated adding the links to it in these discussions. I can't take any credit at all but I certainly do appreciate LC's work.
  6. ^^^ That is different. Looks like your classic omega block under the ridge with both TS's stuck in it. Long way out there in forecast time. WYSIWYG.
  7. 96L ~ the sat pics should update. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands have continued to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development and a tropical cyclone could form at any time today or Sunday so while the system moves westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later this morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 56 68 76 84 90 98 106 108 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 16 14 1 3 7 6 3 6 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -4 0 3 8 3 1 1 -4 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 186 206 181 184 197 140 354 335 280 306 256 357 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.4 LAND (KM) 965 914 883 805 622 318 226 401 612 215 100 257 56 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.7 13.7 12.8 12.1 13.9 16.6 17.9 17.0 15.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 49.7 52.0 54.2 56.1 58.9 59.4 59.1 60.2 63.7 66.7 67.1 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 22 20 18 9 2 13 17 17 13 4 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 46 50 55 74 61 67 48 81 96 116 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618)
  8. Go for it.
  9. Maybe a "boiling Atlantic" thread?