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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

      Sailing Anarchy is a very lightly moderated site. This is by design, to afford a more free atmosphere for discussion. There are plenty of sailing forums you can go to where swearing isn't allowed, confrontation is squelched and, and you can have a moderator finger-wag at you for your attitude. SA tries to avoid that and allow for more adult behavior without moderators editing your posts and whacking knuckles with rulers. We don't have a long list of published "thou shalt nots" either, and this is by design. Too many absolute rules paints us into too many corners. So check the Terms of Service - there IS language there about certain types of behavior that is not permitted. We interpret that lightly and permit a lot of latitude, but we DO reserve the right to take action when something is too extreme to tolerate (too racist, graphic, violent, misogynistic, etc.). Yes, that is subjective, but it allows us discretion. Avoiding a laundry list of rules allows for freedom; don't abuse it. However there ARE a few basic rules that will earn you a suspension, and apparently a brief refresher is in order. 1) Allegations of pedophilia - there is no tolerance for this. So if you make allegations, jokes, innuendo or suggestions about child molestation, child pornography, abuse or inappropriate behavior with minors etc. about someone on this board you will get a time out. This is pretty much automatic; this behavior can have real world effect and is not acceptable. Obviously the subject is not banned when discussion of it is apropos, e.g. talking about an item in the news for instance. But allegations or references directed at or about another poster is verboten. 2) Outing people - providing real world identifiable information about users on the forums who prefer to remain anonymous. Yes, some of us post with our real names - not a problem to use them. However many do NOT, and if you find out someone's name keep it to yourself, first or last. This also goes for other identifying information too - employer information etc. You don't need too many pieces of data to figure out who someone really is these days. Depending on severity you might get anything from a scolding to a suspension - so don't do it. I know it can be confusing sometimes for newcomers, as SA has been around almost twenty years and there are some people that throw their real names around and their current Display Name may not match the name they have out in the public. But if in doubt, you don't want to accidentally out some one so use caution, even if it's a personal friend of yours in real life. 3) Posting While Suspended - If you've earned a timeout (these are fairly rare and hard to get), please observe the suspension. If you create a new account (a "Sock Puppet") and return to the forums to post with it before your suspension is up you WILL get more time added to your original suspension and lose your Socks. This behavior may result a permanent ban, since it shows you have zero respect for the few rules we have and the moderating team that is tasked with supporting them. Check the Terms of Service you agreed to; they apply to the individual agreeing, not the account you created, so don't try to Sea Lawyer us if you get caught. Just don't do it. Those are the three that will almost certainly get you into some trouble. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE DO ONE OF THESE THINGS, please do the following: Refrain from quoting the offending text, it makes the thread cleanup a pain in the rear Press the Report button; it is by far the best way to notify Admins as we will get e-mails. Calling out for Admins in the middle of threads, sending us PM's, etc. - there is no guarantee we will get those in a timely fashion. There are multiple Moderators in multiple time zones around the world, and anyone one of us can handle the Report and all of us will be notified about it. But if you PM one Mod directly and he's off line, the problem will get dealt with much more slowly. Other behaviors that you might want to think twice before doing include: Intentionally disrupting threads and discussions repeatedly. Off topic/content free trolling in threads to disrupt dialog Stalking users around the forums with the intent to disrupt content and discussion Repeated posting of overly graphic or scatological porn content. There are plenty web sites for you to get your freak on, don't do it here. And a brief note to Newbies... No, we will not ban people or censor them for dropping F-bombs on you, using foul language, etc. so please don't report it when one of our members gives you a greeting you may find shocking. We do our best not to censor content here and playing swearword police is not in our job descriptions. Sailing Anarchy is more like a bar than a classroom, so handle it like you would meeting someone a little coarse - don't look for the teacher. Thanks.

Polar_William

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About Polar_William

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  • Birthday 08/08/1979
  1. Indeed, I do not know what corresponds to this average of 18 knots. Is this the average of 24 hours compared to the orthodromy, the shortest route? The correct number in nautical miles actually traveled is the second: 22.2 knots. I think they mean with the 18 knots the mean VMG of the last full day. It's not changing every hour. If you sum the point-to-point travelled distances each 15/30 minutes of the IDEC website, you get a maximum sailed distance of 884.15 miles. That's only a little more than the 879 nm measured in a straight line. (no I did not do this by hand, you have a computer for that)
  2. I would say, a few times a year. It's only slightly over 12 bft. It's a region where many depressions develop.
  3. A quick google on iceberg concentration articles shows that between 160 and 130 W - where they will be in 3 days - icebergs tend to drift more regularly up to ~60 S. But if you buy and analyse satellite images, you know where (the larger ones) are.
  4. Could be a sail change
  5. Good point and likely. Won't matter in so may years. It will all be melted away then they can as far South as they wish.Actually it is opposite. Unlike other ice masses in the Nth hemisphere which are melting faster, Antarctic sea ice is increasing. This is largely on account of stronger colder winds blowing sea ice out from the Antartic continent. This relatively recent change in wind pattern is being produced by ozone depletion etc. This expansion and redistribution of Antartic sea ice is causing shipping access problems for those bases located there. Hence the the recent introduction of Antarctic ice limits to RTW races. Yes. But unchecked, eventually melted, blown out to sea and melted. Not sure there will will still be a race at that point though or a human race for that matter. Then there are the contrarians. I met a Helioligist (?) from Northrop recently, a liberal, who recently published a paper suggesting it all has to do with the orbit of the earth. Convincing too. Actually both (partly) untrue. 1) Antarctic sea ice was increasing (since 1979, before that we don't know) - but by for not as much as the decrease of Arctic sea ice. However, out of the blue since this month Antarctic sea ice sets record low values for the time of the year (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) 2) But it's not sea ice what's bothers them. They stay north because of ice bergs and the swarm of fragments around those. Ice bergs and sea ice are two totally different things. 3) I didn't know if there is a trend in ice berg concentrations. I do know that satellites now can see them, contrary to a decade ago. On other words, now everyone knows where they are, a race organizer can't simply ignore them.
  6. I can image that may people here are skeptical about the foilers to finish, but has anyone here did some math on it? (I guess the designers did) If we keep it simple and assume that the chance to lose a foil is equal for every mile and every sailor. Using that, the chance with 7 foilers and about 30.000 miles to cover, we get: Case 1: The chance would be only 5% that at least one reach the finish with foils still working is: -- The chance that a boat finishes with foils still working is 0.73%. -- The chance to break a foil is 0.016% per mile, or 15% per 1000 mile. Case 2: the chance is 50% that at least one reach the finish with foils still working: -- The chance that a boat finishes with foils is 9.4%. -- The chance to break a foil is 0.008% per mile, or 7.5% per 1000 mile. Case 3: the chance is 99% that at least one reach the finish with foils: -- The chance that a boat finishes with foils is 48%. -- The chance to break a foil is 0.0024% per mile, or 2.4% per 1000 mile. So, what is our experience, is the chance to break a foil typically 15% per 1000 mile or just 2.5%? It's just a factor 6 difference, but it approximates the difference between Russian roulette and a "must have to win".
  7. Well, I guess you hinted to Team AkzoNobel led by Simeon Tienpont - now official announced in the Dutch news. http://nos.nl/artikel/2115523-tienpont-verrast-met-nieuwe-nederlandse-boot-in-volvo-ocean-race.html. Interestingly, it's appears not to be one of the known Dutch initiatives.
  8. Schakel, you should read a little better. Also in these two articles is stated clearly that he is leaving soon.
  9. Dutch news say that VOR 2018 will end in the Hague - and there shall be a Dutch boat. http://nos.nl/artikel/2094638-den-haag-wordt-in-2018-champs-elysees-van-volvo-ocean-race.html
  10. According to http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=South%20America&step=48&relative_archive_date=2014102700&parameter=Wind%20850%20and%20mslp, there will be a new low developing today at 40 S at the coast of South America. In its wake, there will be quite some pressure gradient between 20-40 S, 30-45 W. This passage to the southern winds gets blocked by Monday 3rd (according to this forecast). I guess that's long enough for everyone to reach 35-40S. It would be nice if someone can show some routing whether this forecasts are favoring the front or back boats.
  11. Adding to the discussion on the speeds listed on the VOR tracker: The VMG is the average of the leg. For example Brunel has covered about 2400 nm in 241 hours = 9.9 kn. Nice useless information...
  12. I suppose you mean in GRIB format but if you just want charts you can find ECMWF in various places eg: http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!South%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014102100!!/ Yes I know, but they make so much more valuable data which are only accessible if you are member of a contributing weather service - or pay.
  13. They put sensors on seabirds. Most frozen chickens which they launch using an intercontinental ballistic trebuchet, IIRC. Also, they have buoys eg (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=31006), ship reports and sat derived winds. With all of that IME forecasts near the equator in general and the CZ in specific are pretty hopeless. In the doldrums, wind patterns are heavily influenced by convective systems, which have, depending on their size, a life time of a hour to a day. It's almost impossible to forecast the location of `the next round of convective systems` because their exact location depends on (for a weather model) random processes. Those convective systems determine the local wind - there is little large scale wind. That's why wind predictions at the ITCZ are hopeless and probably will remain hopeless next decades. Routing software uses weather model output and helps you to find where to cross the doldrums. At the doldrums, you have to look outside. By the way, many/most internet resources use American (=NOAA) weather forecast data (=GFS) because European models (e.g. ECMWF) are never available for free.