Herman

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Herman last won the day on December 31 2020

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About Herman

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    Super Anarchist

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  • Location
    The Netherlands
  • Interests
    Match racing ORC-2

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  1. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Thanks Chai, very useful.
  2. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Thank you very much Renato, appreciated!
  3. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Weather update The big picture is with ECMWF in pic #1. The HP zone should be moving slowly due east in the coming days. ECMWF and GFS more or less align for the coming days. No synoptic maps available yet. I could not make out any fronts in the South Atlantic in the coming days though. The SACZ has gone of for lunch too in the coming days. On Thursday two LP zones are projected to come in from South America, moving SE. That could get interesting. Weather routing table to the virtual waypoint / equator is in pic #2. Part of the route is done by the climate plugin. Dalin seems to have better papers to stay close to Bestaven than Ruyant, according to projections. Which do not account for the missing foil of Ruyant, so performance for him is overestimated anyway. The seven boats I routed all show upwind percentages of 24-38 %. And highest for Bestaven. That is not so good for foiling, as polars are best for reaching. So that is good news for the non-foilers. All routings are pushed more to the east for the seven boats, see pic 3. East of Ilha de Trindade in the current projections. And far away of the shortest route (black dashed line). If projections change, I would expect a more western route along the rhumbline. Although the boats have to go east anyway. But how far? When looking at the next hurdle which could drive boats west closer to Brazil, the ITCZ, boats should arrive around the 18th. That is not in scope yet for the more detailed forecast models yet. This will take 4 days or so to see if a quick passage like when Boss was steaming south unhindered could be the case, or that there is a possibility that boats could get parked-up. Routing from the windy plugin seems valid up to Thursday afternoon. Up till the part that Bestaven should sail SE with a small or negative VMG towards the HP zone, which I don't buy. See pic # 4.
  4. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Weather update Now the Christmas tree has gone, I found 2 hours for a new routing. Updated the no-go zones. The big picture is in pic #1 with ECMWF and a scattered handful of HP-zones. Wind is mostly west of Cape Horn. Or below Gough Island. The HP is driving Bestaven more east looking for wind. The blue line I drew is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) which they have to pass. I put a new virtual waypoint on the map at the equator at 0 N 28 W. This wp is close to the Brazilian St. Paul and St. Peter Archipel, 100 nm to the SE of these islands. The wp is also on the rhumbline between Cape Horn and the finish at Les Sables d'Olonne. Which is the black dashed line. A virtual wp more closer to the fleet at 30 S 40 W seems less valid, see the routings for four boats. Two weeks sailing to the equator. See pic # 2 for the routing table. Bestaven projected a good comfortable sailing trip, the other less so (bumpy of difficult). Dalin projected 9 hrs behind Bestaven, and Ruyant 5 hrs behind him again. So the pressure stays on the current leader. The routings for Bestaven, Dalin, Ruyant and Le Cam are in pics # 3 to 6. Bestaven has the most easterly route projected, compared to the other boats. Forcing him possibly against the AEZ at 50 S. Also interesting is that Dalin and Ruyant are projected to cross their paths at Januay 7th. And stay relative close to each other. See pic # 7 the arrows for the top-3 boats. If forecast holds up, etcetera.
  5. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Me too. That is a Dutch former fishing ship turned pleasure, could be a hoogaars-type. Bow is more pointier than a schouw-type. The photo of Pip as a child could have been taken in The Netherlands, as a hoogaars is not really North Sea-worthy. More used on the coast or inland.
  6. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Bestaven to "round" Cape Horn as in passing that longitude in the coming hour or so. +/- 90 nm south of the lighthouse. He was doing 23 kts @ 10:35 CET. Wow.
  7. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Looking at windy and the plugin, the LP is moving very quickly SE. The 2 main wind models are still not very accurate on this one. My guess is that Bestaven could already be into more serious weather atm. And no SAT-AIS updates in the past hour on him to check heading and boat speed, unfortunately. Tomorrow afternoon (UTC/CET) probably the rounding of CH.
  8. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Hi Klaas, see my post above for my humble opinion that they will probably not get close to CH with current projected weather conditions. No selfies with CH background to be expected as I typed yesterday or so.
  9. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Weather update As predicted, the gap is widening between the first two boats and the rest. The LP is splitting the fleet. "Okay, Houston, we've had a problem here" as the actual quote was on Apollo 13. The weather models ECMWF and GFS agree where the centre of the LP zone is. See pics 1 and 2. But looking at the latest EUMETSAT visible clouds, I think both models are a bit off for the centre of that LP. See pic 3. It is more to the east than currently projected. So routing is a bit useless imho, as it is garbage in, garbage out. But I did have look at the windy plugin and rolled forward a bit, and noted that Bestaven and Dalin are projected to sail close around Cape Horn. I think I don't buy it, as the projected sea state will turn sour too below CH. As in 8 meters high according to WW3 model. See pic 4. Or 7+ meters in the ECMWF WAM model in pic 5. Closer to the AEZ the projected sea state is a bit better; 6 to 6.5 meters. It could be Theta-like conditions close to CH for wind, expected gusts and waves. If the models are valid. Not something to sail in, unless no other option is possible. Staying closer to the AEZ makes sense in this case with the current weather projections.
  10. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Sounds like a very good plan to me
  11. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    You honor your nickname
  12. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Weather update So Dalin and Ruyant took both a more northerly route away from the AEZ that Bestaven is still hugging. All as projected yesterday. Seguin who has been hugging the AEZ too sailed into the third ranking last night. That was not in the books. Bestaven looks good with a DTL on 2nd Dalin of 126 NM this morning and 300+ NM on 3rd Seguin and 380+ NM on Ruyant. But that LP I wrote about in the past 2 days could change this in the coming two days when I fast forward the windy plugin. These projections indicate that Dalin could Pacman away his DTL quickly. And possibly overtake Bestaven at Saturday 2nd of January. Let's have a look in detail. The overall situation is in pics 1 to 3. The fleet is in between two LPs. Light winds in between them impacting a large part of the top-10 boats. Ruyant was doing 2 kts.. But not the two most easterly boats. Blasting away at 20+ kts. AFAIK I could make out two fronts, one far to the north and the one that passed, going east, yesterday. Set the polars for Herrmann to 103% as his 2015 boat got a nice overhaul in 2020. Set max swell to 5 meters for all boats in order to circumvent a very bad sea state building up west of the Chilean coast. Weather routing table in pic 4. The projections by windy and Kevin's plugin do not align with mine for Bestaven and Dalin. The ETA for Dalin as 2nd behind Bestaven at Cape Horn is a couple of hours later. A projected DTL of +/- 130 NM, the same as now. The difference could be in the polars used, as we both route with GFS wind and WW3 waves. Rounding CH will be very though though for the first two boats, as winds up to the 40s are expected, wind gusts up to the 50s, when the LP has moved southwest below Cape Horn. Bestaven projected to round CH around Saturday 2nd, around lunchtime (12 UTC). I expect no selfies with CH in the background with these expected conditions. But a triple reefed main, and a quick exit into the southern Atlantic ocean. Which provides better weather, as South America acts a shelter / high shore. And the SACZ and St Helena HP await them. Finally, the boats behind the first two will have completely different weather, see pic 6 for JLC's routing with very moderate winds. So that DTL-gap will grow behind Bestaven and Dalin into an abyss worthy of a Lord of the Rings film. The projected DTL is almost to double (from +/- 450 nm to 800 nm) for The King. That will be hard to claw back imho in the relative foiler-friendly South Atlantic conditions. I wish you all reading this a good 2021 with lots of anti-corona vaccinations. They start in 2 weeks time here in The Netherlands on a small scale, but that could be for me in the summer or even later. Nasty times but following the VG keeps me happy.
  13. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    According to the KNMI, our Dutch weather bureau; "In a La Niña, the sea water temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than average. Stronger easterly winds bring more cold water from the deep ocean to the surface. We often hear reports about El Niño; La Niña is the counterpart. In an El Niño, the seawater in the Pacific Ocean heats up." Source (in Dutch); https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/bovengemiddelde-warm-2020-verwacht-ondanks-la-nina According NOAA; "Another key signal to how well La Niña is doing lies in the wind. ENSO events disrupt the Walker Circulation, the normal atmospheric wind pattern that blows across the tropics. La Niñas tend to rev up the existing Walker Circulation. The trade winds, which blow east to west across the Pacific Ocean, blow a little harder, while winds higher up in the atmosphere blow to the east a little bit harder. During November, that is exactly what happened. " Source https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2020-la-niña-update-walking-la-niña-winter-wonderland So both indicate that the trades should be blowing harder. KNMI states that notwithstanding the lower average sea temperatures which indicate La Niña is active, the average temperature measured in The Netherlands is one of the highest ever measured due to climate change. I just remembered that I had to buy 4 ventilators this summer as we hit a smoldering heat wave which is very uncommon for our country. Sleeping at night was otherwise impossible. So we have El Niña combined with climate change impacting the weather.
  14. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Weather update Set AEZ to V5 - thx again @Hitchhiker for that file. Set Bestaven to 105% polars. Routing with 08:00 positions for top-5 boats and GFS run 00:00. Away we go. The big picture is pic 1 with EUMETSAT IR pic 2 ECMWF temps and pic 3 self-made synoptic map. I have added the temperature pic in order to distinguish the two cold fronts (blue lines). In pic 3 top left you can see where the LP 3 will be starting soon and which I mentioned yesterday. That LP 3 coming SE is going to be the dominant factor in the coming days. The weather routing table for top-5 boats is in pic 4. The max winds have come down considerably compared to the projections yesterday. Into the 30s instead of the 50s. Still enough. And wind gusts well into the 40s. Routing for Bestaven, Dalin and Ruyant in pic 5. Bestaven can sail almost due east towards Cape Horn. Dalin, Ruyant and other boats can be forced more north. Gybing due to that cold front passing them. Seguin and Le Cam can expect more head winds compared to the top-3 boats. If we roll the Windy tracker with Kevin's excellent plugin forward in the coming days, you get the next pics. Pic 6 has the projection for tomorrow 31st at 00:00 UTC. The LP can now clearly be seen top left. And moving quickly SE, see pic 7 for the 31 09:00 UTC projection. Moving forward to Jan 1st 07:00 UTC see pic 8. The LP is splitting the fleet. Finally, projections for Jan 2nd 04:00 UTC. The LP has moved below the AEZ on the SW side of Cape Horn. At the moment Bestaven looks good with the 2nd cold front and LP 3. But the projections for that LP 3 can change in the coming days. And so the impact on the fleet. BTW: sea state will turn shitty with that LP 3. 6 meters and more south west of Chile. See pic 9. That alone would drive boats more south when rounding CH to the AEZ. Max waves are now set in OpenCPN for routing at max 7 meters. Will adjust tomorrow to 5 or 6 meters. This would impact JLC's routing, driving him more south. Other routes are more to the south already, circumventing that sea state.
  15. Herman

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Polars for foilers 2020 added I see