sidmon

Members
  • Content count

    876
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

12 Whiner

About sidmon

  • Rank
    Anarchist

Profile Information

  • Location
    Chicago

Recent Profile Visitors

2,827 profile views
  1. sidmon

    Florence

    Its is Sept 11 for Christsake!!!!! If your are deep blue water in the Atlantic today, and you are not staying on top of the tropical situation, then you are a REAL DUMBASS. And a frontrunner Darwin Award contestant for being out there in the first place.
  2. sidmon

    Florence

    Opinions assholes. All that... He makes it a point to put his forecasts up for all to see. Good or Bad. Bottom line: Bastardi totally nailed this one.
  3. sidmon

    Florence

    Gent picked up on the seasonal pattern in April with expecting a major east coast hit. And he also pegged Florence as a Carolinas threat a full week before anyone else. You can go back and look what he forecast.
  4. sidmon

    Florence

    Thanks. The boomer I saw ...never knew which one she was... intentionally settled into the mud during David.
  5. sidmon

    The 2018 Golden Globe Race

    Check out her sat call and she gives the reason why. She was getting south due to the weather warning RO gave the racers in her area about the Agulhas current opposing some high winds. She has been dead reckoning so she wasn't real sure of her position. Don told her she was beyond that point and she turned east. Satcall page: https://goldengloberace.com/socialhub/
  6. sidmon

    Florence

    (bump)
  7. sidmon

    Florence

    Dont see any other data like age of posit course and speed or size of vessel. If its a mega yacht, he has ship size to cope for a bit to get south at some speed. If he is a sailboat, he'd better be getting Old School Bowditch, keep the wind on his starboard quarter at 160 relative and go as fast as he can....And do it NOW. Actually, if it is a sailboat...Why would he be there at the very peak of the hurricane season in the first place??????
  8. sidmon

    Florence

    The dangers of looking at any one model. Like I say, if someone invents code to perfectly predict the future, the screw the weather! Go on a casino tour! You could do us all some good by expounding on "guidance" vs "forecast". NHC #45 discussion excerpt: Not sure if you have seen this paper about track bias from NWS Houston that pertains to the Gulf Coast, but its interesting: Lance Wood's presentation at hurricane seminar some years back https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/stormsignals/vol68.pdf Link to AMS paper: https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/139300.pdf I haven't found any subsequent validation of their tool at KHGX...but hey... they usually answer their emails!
  9. sidmon

    Florence

    Bump of the Ryan Maue twitter above:
  10. sidmon

    Florence

    That just loops back to this thread.... NORFOLK (NNS) -- Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command ordered all Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Alpha; ships are completing final preparations and will begin to sortie today, ahead of Hurricane Florence. There are nearly 30 ships preparing to get underway from Naval Station Norfolk and Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek as Hurricane Florence is forecasted to bring high winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ships will be directed to areas of the Atlantic where they will be best postured for storm avoidance. Some units will not get underway due to maintenance status but will be taking extra precautions to avoid potential damage. Commanding officers have a number of options when staying in port, depending on the severity of the weather. Some of these options include adding additional mooring and storm lines, dropping the anchor, and disconnecting shore power cables. “Our ships can better weather storms of this magnitude when they are underway,” said U.S. Fleet Forces Commander Adm. Christopher Grady in a news release earlier this weekend. The number one mission is to protect the fleet, to include keeping our personnel and their families safe. Additionally, Commander, Navy Region Mid-Atlantic ordered all Navy installations in the Hampton Roads area to set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Three (III), meaning sustained destructive winds of greater than 50 knots associated with a tropical system are expected within 48 hours. Navy installations in Hampton Roads have begun to prepare for the storm. Some preparations include securing hazards throughout the installations, removing debris from drainage areas, designating alternate parking areas for flood prone areas, sand bagging flood prone areas, topping off fuel in generators and government vehicles and relocating dumpsters and equipment to more secure areas. All personnel and their families should review their Navy Family Accountability and Assessment System (NFAAS) account at https://navyfamily.navy.mil, as well as review hurricane checklists and evacuation plans in the event an evacuation is necessary. Service members are encouraged to discuss evacuation and reporting requirements with their chain of command and family members.
  11. sidmon

    Florence

    Wasn't there for Hugo, but the DD I was on was opened up in the drydock at the yard in David in 79, so I saw her. We were worried about the Cooper River breaching the dock doors, and just all the crap flying around. Also, there was an SSN in the next dock getting refueled. As this was just after Three Mile Island, nobody wanted to see trouble in that dock!!! The ships that did get underway got beat to hell. The Sellars lost all her lifeline stanchions forward.
  12. sidmon

    Florence

    Big Medicine from Dr. Ryan Maue. The GFS model is the Garbage Frickin Solution in its forecast track. And 12Z Euro was already gestating when Flo amped up this morning so its intensities are off.
  13. sidmon

    Florence

    Merchant ship owners treat those vessels as disposable. Thats what insurance is for is how they may be looking at it. They are better off at anchor than pierside. Which makes me wonder how many grey boats may join them, or just be stuck pierside at NOB, as the USN is generally broke dick these days and some can't get underway. Sure as hell glad I'm not on an LCS too! Remember a "boomer" couldnt depart Charleston during David in '79 and she just partially submerged into the mud. But, to your point. What happened in Osaka last week. Be really bad if it happened in the Chesapeake!: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-04/japan-typhoon-sends-2600-tonne-tanker-crashing-into-bridge/10200814
  14. sidmon

    Florence

    Been there. Done that. Always a lumpy miserable ride. At least forecast track accuracy is way better than it was in my day.