duncan (the other one)

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Everything posted by duncan (the other one)

  1. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    shaggy - can you please thank your daughter for me as an average punter who still needs to get their groceries. She is literally 'on the front line' - I know the risks are low, but the fear factor must be pretty high.
  2. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    US Population during civil war - 31.5M US population today - 327M Let's call it 10x. US mortality rate - 8.6 per. 1000 (ie: 8.6 deaths per year per 1000 people, 2019) If 750k people die from covid, that's 2.3 per. 1000. An increase of about 25% Many of those will have contributory illnesses. Hardly 'unimaginable' US Death toll during civil war ~ 620k. ie: 20 per. 1000.
  3. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    the real problem, as many modellers have pointed out, is that just like the 1919 Flu, we'll get hit again with a second round in approximately 6 months time . We want to have enough immunity in the population by then to shrug it off. Too effective in the quarantine now, and we won't have that. My simplistic understanding of the Herd Immunity Thresholds (HIT) says that with an R0 of 3, we need about 50% of the population to be immune to make it go away, or a fair bit less to just have it be a less deadly wave.
  4. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    Here's why you can't just lock everything down and hope the problem goes away... a careful balancing act between allowing the disease to get out and create herd immunity, vs. getting out of control. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
  5. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    I do not understand why this hasn't been rolled out to all airports - its available and working. I was picked up by one in Taiwan during some previous epidemic (SARS, bird flu?)
  6. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    you need to get out of your bunker, jack
  7. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    try this for some sanity. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/munk-debates-were-making-high-stakes-covid-19-decisions-without-reliable-data At the moment, we are enacting extremely severe measures in an effort to do something. However, we have very little evidence-based data on how to guide our next steps. We really don’t know where we are, where we are heading, whether our measures are effective, or if we need to modify them. There is a possibility that many of our aggressive measures could be doing more harm than good, especially if they are to be maintained in the long term. There will be major consequences in terms of lives lost, major disruptions to the economy, to the society, and to our civilization.
  8. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    right -- so the trashing of the economy won't cost any lives?
  9. duncan (the other one)

    How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

    Read the letter of the law. It has nothing to do with the real situation when sailing even single handed dinghies. Organised sport with 11 participants? You're out. Sure, you can go cruising with a bunch of mates. 'The law' doesn't stop anything, enforcement does.
  10. duncan (the other one)

    How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

    we were going to run a 'corona cup' as of last week; a special series which was outside the normal point-scores so that people didn't feel obliged to sail, and such that nobody put in some half-baked request for redress in the normal pointscores due to the situation, but we're now shut down for the season - we pretty much expected it to happen. Normally close up end April.
  11. duncan (the other one)

    How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

    NSW (Oz) Public Health Order. Effectively bans sailing. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Documents/covid-19-social-gathering-order-20200325.pdf Public Health (COVID-19 Gatherings) Order (No 2) 2020 under the Public Health Act 2010 b) prohibits some activities, including.. social sporting activities (unless they are outside and no more than 10 people participate) ..
  12. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    Jacinda can fuck right off. Gives poor Scotty a hard time, then asks we pay all those kiwi's in Coogee.
  13. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    Tick tock - almost 4pm and still no change to the laws.
  14. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    The real problem, and I think source of much confusion, is the delay between messages. The states meet and agree on a course of action, Scotty announces it, but then it takes the states a day to get their shit together and put the public health order in place. NSW still hasn't updated theirs, as of midday today: https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/pho-covid-19-gatherings.aspx
  15. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    This is a very good point. The federation model in Aus does not allow the feds to impose any laws restricting schooling, gatherings, etc. This is all the responsibility of the states. People seem to misunderstand that, and blame Scotty.
  16. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    .. the problem with just closing all the schools, is it forces parts of the workforce to shut down. What about all the health care workers who have young children? They now stay at home, too ? What's happening (in NSW at least), is that school is 'stay at home if you can'. My son's HS is < 10% attendance at the moment. Seems like a pretty good compromise. Every business shut down is a bigger recession. We'll all be paying taxes for this for decades. There are no perfect solutions in this situation. I reckon the grubbinment is making a pretty good fist of it in Aus.
  17. duncan (the other one)

    Aussie Government blow it (Again)

    thanks buddy -- glad you're in charge.
  18. duncan (the other one)

    Merlin Rocket Walk Around

    The British certainly love their string!
  19. duncan (the other one)

    what is the holy grail older yacht for handicap wins

    Yep - the TP's certainly seem to have found a niche in IRC that isn't currently addressed.effectively by the handicap. I find it interesting that 30-foot sporties were so hard-hit by IRC they didn't bother in the end.. but the TP's are reaching similar polar shapes and performance differences, with no penalty
  20. duncan (the other one)

    what is the holy grail older yacht for handicap wins

    I think the problem is pros more than boat type. Corinthian results should be given greater prominence. If you want to see pros, watch the AC or VOR.
  21. duncan (the other one)

    mast vang attachment for 19 " Typhoon

    That mast step would be stronger than the slug in track idea, I reckon. Just keep an eye on the holes in the flange to see if they're distorting or wearing oval. As for the horn cleats - too high for what? That boom is plenty higher.. This thing ain't a roachy-clewed racer, and loads will be reasonable. I'd start with the mast step solution.. just inspect it every now and then.
  22. duncan (the other one)

    mast vang attachment for 19 " Typhoon

    Sweet looking boat.. Looks like a pin on the back of a big hunk of aluminium mast step on these two examples - why not just tie to that with some dyneema? I think a slug (but maybe not that one you linked) will be fine.. Find one you can fix a saddle to, and you'll need to have a through-bolt into the back of the mast, or located above it to hold it in place. If you want to go really ghetto minimal, put a loop of dyneema around the mast and under those two horn cleats. Fix to that.
  23. duncan (the other one)

    sheave box for 5mm spectra

    Just if the post is overbuilt compared with the mast, then it won't matter much if you need to drill new holes in it.
  24. duncan (the other one)

    sheave box for 5mm spectra

    Hard to tell what angle the rope is turning.. from horizontal to vertical into the mast ? Can you use a couple of floating blocks on saddles instead ? If its not hard to access for maintenance, you could use something soft for attachment rather than a saddle. How thick is that wall, given its the step, not the mast ?
  25. duncan (the other one)

    Keeping Me Man-Parts Warm

    capsizing, falling out of the boat, normal dinghy sailing stuff.