Your Mom

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  1. Your Mom

    Tour de France - 2018

    BTW... Renardt Janse van Rensburg had a mild crash in the feed zone today. Replay showed a Bahrain rider throwing a feed bag down deliberately in the middle of a crowd, next to RJvR just before it. RJvR had a gear issue when he came up. (Commentators initially thought it was a Katusha rider, and it was zoomed out, so it was hard to be sure, but I'm pretty sure it was the Bahrain rider behind the Katusha guy). I mention this for the purpose of asking the people more knowledgeable than me about cycling... Any chance the Bahrain guy was actually trying to cause a pileup? I tend to think no... I think it looked like he was deliberately throwing it down because that was indeed what he was trying to do... trying to throw it hard to the ground between his bike and his neighor's, safely... and maybe the strap flipped out accidentally or something. But the footage made it look like maybe he had bad intent, so I figured I'd ask. Would someone actually do that? Especially with the knowledge that in the modern age, it will probably be caught on film?
  2. Your Mom

    Tour de France - 2018

    I tend to be fascinated by obscure things like elimination times on each stage and the efforts of a rider like Craddock to stay in the event at all. So I looked up the finishing time coefficient for the TTT. You have to be within 30% of the fastest team's time. Back in 2013, Ted King was something like a minute or two beyond that after crashing a day or two prior and then being unable to stay with his team for the TTT. There IS an option for the "Commisaires' Committee" to make an exception if the stage's average speed was very high, or if the rider suffered an incident during the stage with particularly unfortunate timing, or if the rider was delayed during the stage by an incident ahead, or by impassability of roads. I think back in 2013 the rules also allowed the committee to make an exception if the rider showed extraordinary valor in his efforts to finish, or something like that... That was the basis that US fans thought King should be retained by back in 2013, because he worked hard as hell, on his own, in obvious pain, after losing his team in the TTT. It may be that they removed that verbiage specifically because that day resulted in them wanting to be more mathematical and less opinion-based. Or it may be that I'm remembering how the commentators explained it instead of what's written in the actual rules. Anyway, it looks like the estimates for the fastest team's finish are around 39 minutes. So if Craddock or anyone else loses their team, which seems possible given how many guys hit the deck in Stage 2, they'd need to finish somewhere around 50.7 minutes to avoid the cut. If anyone out there is watching with that in mind like me, figure 50 minutes is probably safe and 51 is heavily at risk. Here are the official rules, BTW... http://netstorage.lequipe.fr/ASO/cycling_tdf/tdf2018-reglement.pdf English starts on Page 20, and the finish deadline coefficients start on Page 27.
  3. Your Mom

    Tour de France - 2018

    Uran may be hurt a bit in the TTT by Craddock not being able to help much. US TV coverage suggested one of Craddock's purposes on the team was to be a strong engine in the TTT. (I'm rooting for Craddock to hang in there to the finish, but I'm worried he may not be able to stay with his team in the TTT, which could quickly turn into him losing enough time to be eliminated tomorrow... which happened to Ted King in 2013). Terrible loss for Astana, and Fuglsang's chances, when Sanchez crashed out today. Nibali's team seems to be intact. I have no idea how good they are at TTT, but at least they should all be able to give 100%.
  4. Your Mom

    Tour de France - 2018

    Fernando Gaviria appears to be getting a lot of hype as a possible multi-stage winner. Apparently very high top-end speed. It'll be interesting to see if he can get through three weeks.
  5. Your Mom

    VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

    Conrad was a highlight of the event every time he had an opportunity to contribute. His use of props to explain some concepts was inventive and entertaining. Most importantly, he had a way of explaining basics of sailing and navigation to non-sailors in a way that wasn't boring for experienced sailors. That's really difficult to do, but it seemed to come naturally for him.
  6. Your Mom

    Tour de France - 2018

    I know I'm stating the obvious, but the "sleepers" tend to depend on what plays out with injuries and withdrawals. For example, if something happens to Porte, then TJvG could suddenly be a huge sleeper. I think he'll be much happier, and perform better, in support of Porte than front-lining a team... but if he stays high in the GC while doing that job and then something happens to Porte, who knows. Just one example. Plenty of guys out there like that.
  7. Your Mom

    World Cup

    I think I'm missing something... How could losing badly to Sweden on purpose have been beneficial to Mexico? With a win or tie, Mexico would have won their group. It would have made it possible for Germany to advance from second place over Sweden, though. With a loss by 1 and a German win by 1, I believe Mexico, Germany, and Sweden would have been tied with 6 points, and all three would have had a GD of 1. It would have only worked out for Mexico on the Total Goals tiebreaker if their loss had been 1-2 while Germany's win was 1-0, or something like that. Or it could have gone all the way to the yellow card tiebreaker. But it's moot because losing to Sweden by 3 isn't relevant in this case. With a loss by 2 or more and a German win by any number, Mexico was going to be eliminated on the GD tiebreaker. With a loss and a German tie or loss, Sweden and Mexico were going to advance, regardless of the size of the Mexican and German losses. If Mexico was for some reason simply willing to not advance to the next round at all, in order to keep Germany from winning the group... then I guess the implication of them taking a dive might make sense. Germany and Sweden were tied on GD going into the match, so if both won and Sweden won by more, then the bad loss by Mexico would have cost Germany the group win... But Germany would have still advanced over Mexico as the second place team. Did I misunderstand the situation?
  8. Your Mom

    World Cup

    Germany actually finished fourth in their group, behind South Korea on the tiebreaker. Ouch. I think if Mexico had beaten Sweden, South Korea actually would have advanced by winning a 3-way tiebreaker with Sweden and Germany. Of course, many teams can play the "would have advanced if one match went differently" game, but that's interesting. I doubt anyone would have given South Korea a chance to advance from that group.
  9. Your Mom

    World Cup

    With the US out of it, I've been rooting for upsets, so I've been trying to keep track of the lowest--ranked teams with a chance to advance... Remaining teams, in order by FIFA Rank... 1 Germany TBD in Group F 2 Brazil likely to advance in Group E 3 Belgium will advance from Group G 4 Portugal second in Group B 5 Argentina second in Group D 6 Switzerland likely to advance in Group E 7 France won Group C 10 Spain won Group B T-12 Denmark second in Group C T-12 England will advance from Group G 14 Uruguay won Group A 15 Mexico TBD second in Group F 16 Colombia TBD in Group H 20 Croatia won Group D 24 Sweden TBD in won Group F 27 Senegal TBD in Group H 34 Serbia unlikely to advance in Group E 61 Japan TBD in Group H 70 Russia second in Group A and host Biggest eliminations so far... 1 Germany, 8 Poland, 11 Peru, Tunisia 21, Iceland 22, Costa Rica 23. Poland is the only significant upset to not advance, but Groups E and F could still send some highly ranked teams home. Go Japan!?
  10. Your Mom

    VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

    With the breeze theoretically better to the West and Brunel far East, I'm starting to wonder if Brunel could wind up DFL by the time they get to that mark. I'm also wondering if I might be able to get a full night of sleep in before they get there.
  11. Your Mom

    VOR '17-'18 - THE GAME

    Well done, Awkward Turtle! Got me by 34 seconds, worth three spots. Two SAers in the top 30, and at least three in the top 50.
  12. Your Mom

    VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

    Never mind. Based on TWD, the wind has already gone a lot further right than the wind overlay in the tracker suggests, for everyone. They're all laying the mark now, unless it's still unstable.
  13. Your Mom

    VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

    With the upcoming fleet compression, if some boats haven't slept at all, those who have some members who have had a few hours of sleep might be able to seriously outperform in the final day. I'm surprised to hear the comment about Carlo nodding off... makes me think maybe several boats have over-extended their sleep deprivation thus far. This kind of "coastal distance race" is mentally and physiologically a different game from a true ocean race. (Reminds me of the Vineyard Race and the Block Island Race, for example, for New England US folks' reference). Instead of "we're at this for weeks, so we'll get into a proper watch system and sleep according to the schedule" it's "you must sleep at some point, whether you want to or not, because you'll be defective later if you don't" versus "I can stay awake for 60 hours straight if that's what it takes to win". (I was doing those races on a slower boat... the really fast boats can probably do it without sleep... we weren't that fast)
  14. Your Mom

    VOR Leg 11 Gothenburg to The Hague

    I'm guessing because the SI were revised 5 times in 7 days and the procedures for getting revisions through the various steps to actually get to the tracker have too much lag for that. I'm guessing most of us know the frustrating realities of how long it takes to get from "Marketing has an idea" to "IT has implemented the idea"... (I work in IT)