Your Mom

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Everything posted by Your Mom

  1. Your Mom

    Containers at sea

    The Vendee thread has gone on a big tangent about containers at sea, and other past ocean races have gone on similar tangents. It's an interesting and important topic... Whether the impacts are actually with containers vs. sea life, how many containers are really out there, what could be done about the problem, the financial, safety, and environmental considerations, etc. This thread is for those discussions. I'll be referring the Vendee thread to this one, and I'd like to recommend that all future container tangents in other future races also be referred to this thread rather than overtaking the thread that's meant to be about the race itself.
  2. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Keep in mind also that he needs to beat Hermann by 6 hours, Bestaven by 10:15, and Le Cam by 16:15. So, particularly with Hermann, it isn't simply a matter of covering. He needs some margin if he wants to officially beat them.
  3. Your Mom

    Iconic TDF Mountain Stage Road Trip

    Stage 11 is climbing Mt. Ventoux twice. Pick a good spot and bring a nice picnic with plenty of wine.
  4. Your Mom

    Jules Verne Trophy 2020

    I was thinking about angles of 140-150, and was just roughing it out in my head. These numbers sound more likely to be accurate than what I was thinking, thanks.
  5. Your Mom

    Jules Verne Trophy 2020

    I don't have an answer, but I'd guess it helps to be going downwind... Theoretically, the important number in this question is the maximum apparent wind... Which should be the same as the maximum ground wind you could fly in if you were standing in an open field. (Aside from the impact of sea state and spray on the takeoff/landing processes). This makes me wonder what apparent windspeeds a boat like this actually encounters when broad reaching in 20-30 kts windspeed... My rough math says actually quite moderate... like 10-15 kts...
  6. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    Just keep heading East. Zezo being unable to route backwards is actually the explanation... Keeping in mind measurements of distances if you were to travel directly over Antarctica, routings that go most of too far around the planet can mathematically require "sailing backwards" in ways that aren't obvious on a 2D map. I've also seen cases where it occasionally prefers to send you Westabout to get to your destination.
  7. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    I'm projected to get to CoGH under 13 days, which might be good for the lead to that gate. I'm 8th at Equator.
  8. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    That was a fun race, and I'm happy with 23rd. Of course I wanted to win, but I beat all of the boats I regularly track, and the boats who beat me simply pushed the West very hard, while West paid persistently. All good. The last day or so, I was happy to move from 30th to 18th, but I knew I'd have to give some back at the end when I was going to have to sail higher than TWA 100 to get to the finish. Crazy how close the first few boats ahead and behind me were. There was a lot of fleet compression in the last day or so, allowing me to close on the leader from an hour to 9 minutes. tigrou is experienced and skilled, and did an outstanding job to win it. Regarding Driftwood's question... I always run my routings with 16 days, and then I look at the isochrones and adjust my destination. From that position, if you route to the finish, it looks like it wants to take an aggressive West route, as far as 44W. So then I ask myself "why is it doing that", and I also look at the isochrones near the finish to see if it encounters a light patch with a fork of isochrones around it (ie, two options, where I should pick a side and route to that side) or anything else like that. So... It looks like it currently believes you'll have a stable ride going ENE once you get past 25N or so, about 5 days from now. So it's wanting to to get up to that stable ride ASAP, and it believes the fastest way to get there is an aggressive West route. If you look 8-10 days in the future, the area near your current destination is going to be light, while the area West of there will have 20 kts. If you sail to that spot, your routings will get you there nicely, but if that forecast holds, the boats West of you will freighttrain by. Personally, I'd go ahead and do that. I tend to enjoy routes like that anyway. But... I'd also approach it with a short term tactical mindset... None of your routings are looking for a hard turn West immediately. They're looking more to go North for 24-36 hours, and then either turn West or go more North, or in one case push more East. So... just work North for a day, and reassess tomorrow. As time goes by, the forecast for the North Atlantic will stabilize, so your routing will become more definitive. Have a plan, but keep your options open in your mind for now. With that said, once you commit, don't be indecisive about it. When there's a fork in the road, take it.
  9. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    I've heard yes, but that was at least 6 years ago because it was before I started. I started with the 2014 VOR. I think I heard that sail damage was a function in either the prior Clipper or prior VOR. If I understand correctly, it was partly a function of wind conditions and usage time, but also partly random. Which is both realistic and detrimental to keeping paying customers involved.
  10. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    If they want our boats to match the real ones, they need to make us a bit faster in reaching conditions under 20 kts windspeed, and then have our max speed be around 20 kts windspeed... drop off to 12-14 kts when it's blowing 25, and 10 kts or less when it's blowing 30 or more. Make us hunt for moderate conditions rather than hammering downwind in 30. I'm not sure if it would be more fun or not, but it would be closer to the real boats.
  11. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Beyou's doing 19+ kts now...
  12. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    I'm looking at something like 29 hours from now. More like your dinner time, I guess. Something like 4 AM here. I haven't decided yet what to do about sleep.
  13. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020

    I'm curious to see what Beyou and those with him do the next 3-4 days. If they want to avoid upwind sailing, they're going to need to sail halfway to Cape Town before doing any serious northing. And that may be a good move because it allows them to sail downwind angles most of the way to the equator (although if you go too far, your angles northbound will become too deep). But it's a lot of extra distance. On the other hand, the more direct route would likely be plugging away in diminishing upwind stuff for at least a few days. I suppose it partly depends on how much any of them really want to try to catch up to anyone ahead. The margin from that pack to the next boat is huge.
  14. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    He's had a hell of a race. Kept pushing West and West kept paying. I first noticed him somewhere around Day 64, and he was just behind me. I started hedging East to cover the fleet with Toppen, Buddha, et al, and he kept hedging West. West paid again and he went by me. The TPN group is very strong, and Rafal is an experienced racer who likes to take risks.
  15. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    Finally the rankings are legit. Looks like I have 27 boats to pass. Not likely. Might be able to pick off a few, though. I recognize 9 of them as boats I've seen do well before. Some of the rest are probably secondary boats of well-known racers. The rest I don't recognize.
  16. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    Yup. A few days ago, that route was projected to get to the finish. Then the forecast changed and going north of the Azores looked better. It briefly flipped back when the final day's forecast turned into a drifter, where slogging it out from the coast of Spain looked viable, but that only lasted for one or two forecasts and then the conditions for Biscay improved and the North option has been consistently favored since then. In all cases like this, it's important to pick an option and stick with it (and be right, of course). Flipping back and forth will only get you losses. But... of course... being stubborn about the wrong choice is even worse. The trick is to figure out what to trust, and to be lucky enough to trust the right choice. For example, getting your northing in from the west side of the course, and then crossing the north atlantic, is traditionally successful... and forecasts of light winds several days in the future are usually unreliable... Those drove my decisions, and I've been fortunate enough thus far to not be grossly incorrect.
  17. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020

    If you look at the conditions between Cape Horn and the leaders' present position for the next 3 days, even Beyou could get back in it (somewhat) if he'd take it out of delivery mode and go for it.
  18. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    Tournesol and friends may briefly get to the lead, but we'll probably all be gybing soon and getting more northing in, so depending on how the rankings see that, it might still be a bit longer before the real race leaders stabilize at the top of the leaderboard. Also, there's a decision point today about how exactly to approach the finale. One could take a short little gybe and go fast toward Portugal in a narrow band of wind, or one could take a longer gybe north and approach the finish from Ouessant. Zezo was favoring the Portugal route consistently until a day or so ago, and then suddenly decided that route wasn't going to get around the corner of Spain anymore, so it changed. Anyone who decides to take the Portugal route will get a large lead over the next couple days. Whether or not they can retain that remains to be seen. Zezo thinks no.
  19. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    I don't have a simple answer to that. It depends on how fast the wind is shifting, how stable the conditions are, whether or not we're close to land, how busy I am with other things, etc...
  20. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020

    Tripon closing the gap and likely to continue to do so for another couple days... Should get close enough to at least make things interesting. Conditions also look fast the next 4 days from Cape Horn to the leaders' current position... Beyou isn't going to close the whole 2,000 nm gap, but he could make some significant gains if he eventually decides to step out of delivery mode.
  21. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    You don't. If you could, it would probably be a violation of the rules of the game, anyway. You have to navigate your own boat. Zezo is just a tool to get routing recommendations, and Dashboard is just a tool for advanced data. If you review the Zezo forums enough, I think you'll find another downloadable tool that someone created that will give you each Zezo course change precisely, so that if you want to, you can match its routing turn-by-turn by manually scheduling all of the same course changes... But I've never looked at that tool, let alone used it... Steering that precisely to match Zezo usually isn't as fast as steering smoother courses with fewer course changes. Also... Usually, although Zezo is great, you'll still lose out to people who apply some human intelligence. I see Zezo as a tool for ideas rather than a router to always follow precisely. Besides... What would be fun about racing if you're just clicking a couple buttons to feed A into B?
  22. Your Mom

    Jules Verne Trophy 2020

    Just wondering about maritime law and TSS zones... I realize Jules Verne doesn't have a Race Committee, NOR, etc... So they can sail anywhere they feel is safe to sail, but... Is it legal to sail through there?
  23. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    I'll be ok. And there's time.
  24. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    Thanks. I didn't know of either of these boats (although I'm aware more generally of tigrou... He's quite good). So I have some serious gaining to do if I want to win this thing, but hopefully not against too many opponents.
  25. Your Mom

    Vendee Globe 2020 - Virtual Race

    If you check his history, you'll see he's had occasional good finishes. He's experienced and knows how to race well. And he has all of the options, so he the main lead pack doesn't have any advantages over him. He just gambled on the west side of the course, and that was the right move. Also, there was some fleet compression for a few days after the Falklands, helping the Nemo group to get closer. Going to Nemo cost something like 8-9 hours at Cape Horn, but I think it has diminished to more like 3-4 hours now. Performances like his are what make me worry about mystery boats that'll surface way ahead later. It's possible that there may be some boats that rounded Cape Horn with the lead pack, went aggressively West the whole way, and are now 40-50 miles off my bow.