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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

      Sailing Anarchy is a very lightly moderated site. This is by design, to afford a more free atmosphere for discussion. There are plenty of sailing forums you can go to where swearing isn't allowed, confrontation is squelched and, and you can have a moderator finger-wag at you for your attitude. SA tries to avoid that and allow for more adult behavior without moderators editing your posts and whacking knuckles with rulers. We don't have a long list of published "thou shalt nots" either, and this is by design. Too many absolute rules paints us into too many corners. So check the Terms of Service - there IS language there about certain types of behavior that is not permitted. We interpret that lightly and permit a lot of latitude, but we DO reserve the right to take action when something is too extreme to tolerate (too racist, graphic, violent, misogynistic, etc.). Yes, that is subjective, but it allows us discretion. Avoiding a laundry list of rules allows for freedom; don't abuse it. However there ARE a few basic rules that will earn you a suspension, and apparently a brief refresher is in order. 1) Allegations of pedophilia - there is no tolerance for this. So if you make allegations, jokes, innuendo or suggestions about child molestation, child pornography, abuse or inappropriate behavior with minors etc. about someone on this board you will get a time out. This is pretty much automatic; this behavior can have real world effect and is not acceptable. Obviously the subject is not banned when discussion of it is apropos, e.g. talking about an item in the news for instance. But allegations or references directed at or about another poster is verboten. 2) Outing people - providing real world identifiable information about users on the forums who prefer to remain anonymous. Yes, some of us post with our real names - not a problem to use them. However many do NOT, and if you find out someone's name keep it to yourself, first or last. This also goes for other identifying information too - employer information etc. You don't need too many pieces of data to figure out who someone really is these days. Depending on severity you might get anything from a scolding to a suspension - so don't do it. I know it can be confusing sometimes for newcomers, as SA has been around almost twenty years and there are some people that throw their real names around and their current Display Name may not match the name they have out in the public. But if in doubt, you don't want to accidentally out some one so use caution, even if it's a personal friend of yours in real life. 3) Posting While Suspended - If you've earned a timeout (these are fairly rare and hard to get), please observe the suspension. If you create a new account (a "Sock Puppet") and return to the forums to post with it before your suspension is up you WILL get more time added to your original suspension and lose your Socks. This behavior may result a permanent ban, since it shows you have zero respect for the few rules we have and the moderating team that is tasked with supporting them. Check the Terms of Service you agreed to; they apply to the individual agreeing, not the account you created, so don't try to Sea Lawyer us if you get caught. Just don't do it. Those are the three that will almost certainly get you into some trouble. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE DO ONE OF THESE THINGS, please do the following: Refrain from quoting the offending text, it makes the thread cleanup a pain in the rear Press the Report button; it is by far the best way to notify Admins as we will get e-mails. Calling out for Admins in the middle of threads, sending us PM's, etc. - there is no guarantee we will get those in a timely fashion. There are multiple Moderators in multiple time zones around the world, and anyone one of us can handle the Report and all of us will be notified about it. But if you PM one Mod directly and he's off line, the problem will get dealt with much more slowly. Other behaviors that you might want to think twice before doing include: Intentionally disrupting threads and discussions repeatedly. Off topic/content free trolling in threads to disrupt dialog Stalking users around the forums with the intent to disrupt content and discussion Repeated posting of overly graphic or scatological porn content. There are plenty web sites for you to get your freak on, don't do it here. And a brief note to Newbies... No, we will not ban people or censor them for dropping F-bombs on you, using foul language, etc. so please don't report it when one of our members gives you a greeting you may find shocking. We do our best not to censor content here and playing swearword police is not in our job descriptions. Sailing Anarchy is more like a bar than a classroom, so handle it like you would meeting someone a little coarse - don't look for the teacher. Thanks.

sam75

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About sam75

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  1. Thanks. The second link is working again for me today. I haven't tried the first one.
  2. Those links worked great for me. Thanks for posting! Will live streaming be available via the same links tomorrow (Sunday)?
  3. AC rankings at the completion of the AC Qualifiers (based on results from 30 races) ETNZ 1,029.3 OTUSA 1,021.2 ART 1,003.9 SBTJ 996.2 LRBAR 981.8 GTF 967.7 Predictions for each race in the semifinals ETNZ (87.3%) v LRBAR (12.7%), ETNZ is expected to win by 47 seconds ART (57.8%) v SBTJ (42.2%), ART is expected to win by 8 seconds
  4. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula, June 2 (based on results from 26 races) ETNZ 1,032.9 OTUSA 1017.7 ART 1,001.5 SBTJ 998.9 LRBAR 978.7 GTF 970.1 Predictions for the races on June 3 OTUSA (35.0%) v ETNZ (65.0%), ETNZ is expected to win by 15 seconds SBTJ (69.4%) v LRBAR (30.6%), SBTJ is expected to win by 20 seconds GTF (21.8%) v ART (78.2%), ART is expected to win by 31 seconds LRBAR (17.0%) v OTUSA (83.0%), OTUSA is expected to win by 39 seconds
  5. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula, June 1 (based on results from 22 races) ETNZ 1,030.1 OTUSA 1,023.5 SBTJ 1,003.8 ART 994.1 LRBAR 977.7 GTF 970.9 For any two teams, the difference in their rating values equals the expected win/loss margin in seconds. AC statistical predictions for the races on June 2 ETNZ (74.4%) v SBTJ (25.6%), ETNZ is expected to win by 26 seconds ART (23.3%) v OTUSA (76.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 29 seconds ETNZ (91.7%) v GFT (8.3%), ETNZ is expected two win by 59 seconds SBTJ (59.7%) v ART (40.3%), SBTJ is expected to win by 10 seconds
  6. Posted above and copied below: SBTJ (72.9%) v GTF (27.1%), SBTJ is expected to win by 24 seconds LRBAR (10.6%) v ETNZ (89.4%), ETNZ is expected to win by 53 seconds OTUSA (70.3%) v SBTJ (29.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 21 seconds GTF (50.5%) v LRBAR (49.5%), GTF is expected to win by 1 second
  7. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula based on results from the first 18 races ETNZ 1,029.0 OTUSA 1022.6 SBTJ 1001.3 ART 993.8 GTF 976.9 LRBAR 976.4 For any two teams, differences in rating values equal the predicted winning/losing margin in seconds. For example, if ETNZ raced OTUSA tomorrow, ETNZ would be expected to win by 6.4 seconds (1029.0 - 1022.6) Estimated win probabilities and expected win/loss margins for races on May 31 SBTJ (72.9%) v GTF (27.1%), SBTJ is expected to win by 24 seconds LRBAR (10.6%) v ETNZ (89.4%), ETNZ is expected to win by 53 seconds OTUSA (70.3%) v SBTJ (29.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 21 seconds GTF (50.5%) v LRBAR (49.5%), GTF is expected to win by 1 second
  8. The rankings are based on a sample size of 18 (a 20% increase relative to yesterday). I agree that this is ridiculously small but I have a good idea about what passes the smell test from using the algorithm for other sports. Yes, it would be great to add other variables, if publicly available and the sample size if large enough to gauge the impact of these variables. Good idea - I will run the algorithm on margins at the final mark if I have time (btw, I made a manual adjustment to the winning margin for ETNZ yesterday based on ART giving up).
  9. Here are the predictions from the model that I posted in another thread before the races on May 30. AC Statistical Predictions - May 30 ETNZ (72.6%) v ART (27.4%), ETNZ are expected to win by 24 seconds GTF (16.0%) v OTUSA (84.0%), OTUSA are expected to win by 41 seconds ART (80.5%) v LRBAR (19.5%), ART are expected to win by 35 seconds
  10. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula based on results from the first 18 races ETNZ 1,029.0 OTUSA 1022.6 SBTJ 1001.3 ART 993.8 GTF 976.9 LRBAR 976.4 For any two teams, differences in rating values equal the predicted winning/losing margin in seconds. For example, if ETNZ raced OTUSA tomorrow, ETNZ would be expected to win by 6.4 seconds (1029.0 - 1022.6) Estimated win probabilities and expected win/loss margins for races on May 31 SBTJ (72.9%) v GTF (27.1%), SBTJ is expected to win by 24 seconds LRBAR (10.6%) v ETNZ (89.4%), ETNZ is expected to win by 53 seconds OTUSA (70.3%) v SBTJ (29.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 21 seconds GTF (50.5%) v LRBAR (49.5%), GTF is expected to win by 1 second
  11. I am a bit of stats tragic when it comes to sport, so I have adapted an Elo-type formula that I use for other sports to estimate rankings for the AC (see below). For any two teams, the difference in their rating values equals the expected win/loss margin in seconds. For example, if ETNZ and OTUSA raced today, ETNZ would be expected to win by 7 seconds (1027 - 1,020). AC Statistical Rankings ETNZ 1,027 OTUSA 1,020 ART 1,003 SBTJ 1,001 GTF 979 LRBAR 968 AC Statistical Predictions - May 30 I have also used the rankings and a logistic regression to predicted win probabilities (in parentheses) for the races today ETNZ (72.6%) v ART (27.4%), ETNZ are expected to win by 24 seconds GTF (16.0%) v OTUSA (84.0%), OTUSA are expected to win by 41 seconds ART (80.5%) v LRBAR (19.5%), ART are expected to win by 35 seconds I am working with a very small sample (15 races!) and the analysis is subject to a bunch of other limitations (e.g., the predictions are not conditional on the wind strength), so feel free to throw darts at will.
  12. ^^ Not sure. The distinguishing feature of the other boat was a dark wing with some white around the flag. The web cam images of the race course are fairly grainy (at least on my computer).
  13. ^^ It might have been LRBAR then.... which would also explain the big lead.
  14. ETNZ with a big lead over SBTJ in one of the practice races? (It is difficult to tell on the web cam.)
  15. ETNZ just came back in (with no jib)?