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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

      Underdawg did an excellent job of explaining the rules.  Here's the simplified version: Don't insinuate Pedo.  Warning and or timeout for a first offense.  PermaFlick for any subsequent offenses Don't out members.  See above for penalties.  Caveat:  if you have ever used your own real name or personal information here on the forums since, like, ever - it doesn't count and you are fair game. If you see spam posts, report it to the mods.  We do not hang out in every thread 24/7 If you see any of the above, report it to the mods by hitting the Report button in the offending post.   We do not take action for foul language, off-subject content, or abusive behavior unless it escalates to persistent stalking.  There may be times that we might warn someone or flick someone for something particularly egregious.  There is no standard, we will know it when we see it.  If you continually report things that do not fall into rules #1 or 2 above, you may very well get a timeout yourself for annoying the Mods with repeated whining.  Use your best judgement. Warnings, timeouts, suspensions and flicks are arbitrary and capricious.  Deal with it.  Welcome to anarchy.   If you are a newbie, there are unwritten rules to adhere to.  They will be explained to you soon enough.  

sam75

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About sam75

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  1. AC rankings based on all results from AC35. For any two teams, the difference in their rating values equals the expected win/loss margin in seconds. ETNZ 1,032.0 OTUSA 1,009.4 ART 1,008.9 SBTJ 994.6 LRBAR 987.3 GTF 967.7
  2. Race Replays

    Apologies if already posted, but full replays (almost) for several races have recently been posted on YouTube, via the UK Documentary Channel. Playoff final – Day 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2No5H1vMWcU Playoff final – Day 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ta91f0mrk Playoff final – Day 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ElW2faMXsA AC Races 5 & 6: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3zMSPuLscU AC Races 7 & 8: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ejWZrhP7LY&t=15s AC Races 9: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mKPYSzAE5k&t=190s That's all the links that I could find for now. More may be posted soon.
  3. Live Racing Thread

    Thanks. The second link is working again for me today. I haven't tried the first one.
  4. Live Racing Thread

    Those links worked great for me. Thanks for posting! Will live streaming be available via the same links tomorrow (Sunday)?
  5. AC rankings at the completion of the AC Qualifiers (based on results from 30 races) ETNZ 1,029.3 OTUSA 1,021.2 ART 1,003.9 SBTJ 996.2 LRBAR 981.8 GTF 967.7 Predictions for each race in the semifinals ETNZ (87.3%) v LRBAR (12.7%), ETNZ is expected to win by 47 seconds ART (57.8%) v SBTJ (42.2%), ART is expected to win by 8 seconds
  6. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula, June 2 (based on results from 26 races) ETNZ 1,032.9 OTUSA 1017.7 ART 1,001.5 SBTJ 998.9 LRBAR 978.7 GTF 970.1 Predictions for the races on June 3 OTUSA (35.0%) v ETNZ (65.0%), ETNZ is expected to win by 15 seconds SBTJ (69.4%) v LRBAR (30.6%), SBTJ is expected to win by 20 seconds GTF (21.8%) v ART (78.2%), ART is expected to win by 31 seconds LRBAR (17.0%) v OTUSA (83.0%), OTUSA is expected to win by 39 seconds
  7. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula, June 1 (based on results from 22 races) ETNZ 1,030.1 OTUSA 1,023.5 SBTJ 1,003.8 ART 994.1 LRBAR 977.7 GTF 970.9 For any two teams, the difference in their rating values equals the expected win/loss margin in seconds. AC statistical predictions for the races on June 2 ETNZ (74.4%) v SBTJ (25.6%), ETNZ is expected to win by 26 seconds ART (23.3%) v OTUSA (76.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 29 seconds ETNZ (91.7%) v GFT (8.3%), ETNZ is expected two win by 59 seconds SBTJ (59.7%) v ART (40.3%), SBTJ is expected to win by 10 seconds
  8. Posted above and copied below: SBTJ (72.9%) v GTF (27.1%), SBTJ is expected to win by 24 seconds LRBAR (10.6%) v ETNZ (89.4%), ETNZ is expected to win by 53 seconds OTUSA (70.3%) v SBTJ (29.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 21 seconds GTF (50.5%) v LRBAR (49.5%), GTF is expected to win by 1 second
  9. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula based on results from the first 18 races ETNZ 1,029.0 OTUSA 1022.6 SBTJ 1001.3 ART 993.8 GTF 976.9 LRBAR 976.4 For any two teams, differences in rating values equal the predicted winning/losing margin in seconds. For example, if ETNZ raced OTUSA tomorrow, ETNZ would be expected to win by 6.4 seconds (1029.0 - 1022.6) Estimated win probabilities and expected win/loss margins for races on May 31 SBTJ (72.9%) v GTF (27.1%), SBTJ is expected to win by 24 seconds LRBAR (10.6%) v ETNZ (89.4%), ETNZ is expected to win by 53 seconds OTUSA (70.3%) v SBTJ (29.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 21 seconds GTF (50.5%) v LRBAR (49.5%), GTF is expected to win by 1 second
  10. The rankings are based on a sample size of 18 (a 20% increase relative to yesterday). I agree that this is ridiculously small but I have a good idea about what passes the smell test from using the algorithm for other sports. Yes, it would be great to add other variables, if publicly available and the sample size if large enough to gauge the impact of these variables. Good idea - I will run the algorithm on margins at the final mark if I have time (btw, I made a manual adjustment to the winning margin for ETNZ yesterday based on ART giving up).
  11. Here are the predictions from the model that I posted in another thread before the races on May 30. AC Statistical Predictions - May 30 ETNZ (72.6%) v ART (27.4%), ETNZ are expected to win by 24 seconds GTF (16.0%) v OTUSA (84.0%), OTUSA are expected to win by 41 seconds ART (80.5%) v LRBAR (19.5%), ART are expected to win by 35 seconds
  12. AC rankings from an Elo-type formula based on results from the first 18 races ETNZ 1,029.0 OTUSA 1022.6 SBTJ 1001.3 ART 993.8 GTF 976.9 LRBAR 976.4 For any two teams, differences in rating values equal the predicted winning/losing margin in seconds. For example, if ETNZ raced OTUSA tomorrow, ETNZ would be expected to win by 6.4 seconds (1029.0 - 1022.6) Estimated win probabilities and expected win/loss margins for races on May 31 SBTJ (72.9%) v GTF (27.1%), SBTJ is expected to win by 24 seconds LRBAR (10.6%) v ETNZ (89.4%), ETNZ is expected to win by 53 seconds OTUSA (70.3%) v SBTJ (29.7%), OTUSA is expected to win by 21 seconds GTF (50.5%) v LRBAR (49.5%), GTF is expected to win by 1 second
  13. I am a bit of stats tragic when it comes to sport, so I have adapted an Elo-type formula that I use for other sports to estimate rankings for the AC (see below). For any two teams, the difference in their rating values equals the expected win/loss margin in seconds. For example, if ETNZ and OTUSA raced today, ETNZ would be expected to win by 7 seconds (1027 - 1,020). AC Statistical Rankings ETNZ 1,027 OTUSA 1,020 ART 1,003 SBTJ 1,001 GTF 979 LRBAR 968 AC Statistical Predictions - May 30 I have also used the rankings and a logistic regression to predicted win probabilities (in parentheses) for the races today ETNZ (72.6%) v ART (27.4%), ETNZ are expected to win by 24 seconds GTF (16.0%) v OTUSA (84.0%), OTUSA are expected to win by 41 seconds ART (80.5%) v LRBAR (19.5%), ART are expected to win by 35 seconds I am working with a very small sample (15 races!) and the analysis is subject to a bunch of other limitations (e.g., the predictions are not conditional on the wind strength), so feel free to throw darts at will.
  14. Bermuda?

    ^^ Not sure. The distinguishing feature of the other boat was a dark wing with some white around the flag. The web cam images of the race course are fairly grainy (at least on my computer).
  15. Bermuda?

    ^^ It might have been LRBAR then.... which would also explain the big lead.