Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

2Newts

Race Wind/Weather Forecast

Recommended Posts

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

It's going to be a chilly ride!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

 

How high up is that estimate for? As we all know it is 60 meters that is the critical height in yacht racing. The wind at other levels is simply meaningless!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

It's going to be a chilly ride!

Whaddya mean we don't have a de-icer?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

 

How high up is that estimate for? As we all know it is 60 meters that is the critical height in yacht racing. The wind at other levels is simply meaningless!

 

Sorry, it's for 10 meters. That is the standard height for forecasts. If you or anyone else can find a 60M or similar forecast, please share!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

 

How high up is that estimate for? As we all know it is 60 meters that is the critical height in yacht racing. The wind at other levels is simply meaningless!

 

Sorry, it's for 10 meters. That is the standard height for forecasts. If you or anyone else can find a 60M or similar forecast, please share!

 

Sorry for being so subtle......................SNG is cheat, err trying to gain an unfair advantage on this point! It has placed wind limits to be measured higher than it's masthead!

 

"It is anticipated that races shall be

sailed in winds having a windspeed of not more than 15 knots measured

at 60 metres, and in waves of not more than 1 metre in height."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

 

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...

 

 

Bad news for BOR!!!!

 

I think you have the wrong Valencia.

There is one in Galacia at 42.5N, 007.0W

The other is in Comunidad Valenciana at 39.5N, 000.5W

 

http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

 

Shows Feb 8 at NNE 8.5kts

 

Almost 180 degrees opposite from GFS!

 

Well, ok, we will just have to wait to see as time passes and models begin to converge.

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long range progs are notoriously inaccurate. 48 hour weather begins to become accurate. Additionally, as Hough has mentioned, wind predictions made for shore conditions may have little to do with conditions covering the 100 or so square miles that composes the course. Also wind conditions at the surface may now associate with conditions at 200 feet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

 

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...

 

 

Bad news for BOR!!!!

 

I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.

If the forecast are good they will not be, at minimum, before Feb 2 on the water, and after it will be the measurements, so not much training for Bor with their new rig. The new wing looks great but, as a matter of racing, I find it pretty desperate to go and race a new rig not really tested...We want to see both boats racing, no one breaking before the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.

 

Which site? URL please?

 

Here is the wind data from wunderground.com for January so far, with wind gust speeds noted in blue - significantly, wind gust data is "sparse", appearing only as noted by the blue bars - otherwise, it apparently wasn't gusting? Horizontal lines are five knots each:

post-10646-1264576065_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.

 

Which site? URL please?

 

Here is the wind data from wunderground.com for January so far, with wind gust speeds noted in blue - significantly, wind gust data is "sparse", appearing only as noted by the blue bars - otherwise, it apparently wasn't gusting? Horizontal lines are five knots each:

post-10646-1264576065_thumb.png

Keep the weather information flowing, your forecasts are great.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

 

http://www.predictwind.com Free 30 days...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if they will be giving forecasts for Valencia and if they do, whether they can be trusted. I think it highly unlikely, seeing that it is run by the Alinghi weather team!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I am not sure where you got that. I download the gfs data direct (into viewfax) and for Valencia it say:

 

02/08 0600 wind: 6.8kts 104 degrees pressure: 1006.6

02/08 1800 wind: 9.6kts 087 degrees pressure: 1007.0

02/09 0600 wind: 10.3kts 085 degrees pressure: 1003.8

02/09 1800 wind: 7.9kts 072 degrees pressure: 1001.0

02/10 0600 wind: 9.9kts 062 degrees pressure: 999.7

02/10 1800 wind: 4.5kts 096 degrees pressure: 996.3

 

That's wind at 10m, degrees true, time in UTC; and don't believe it at all until at most 5 days out.

 

This is the picture for 02/08 0600, but again, don't believe it!

 

post-8534-1264595951_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

 

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...

 

 

Bad news for BOR!!!!

 

I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.

If the forecast are good they will not be, at minimum, before Feb 2 on the water, and after it will be the measurements, so not much training for Bor with their new rig. The new wing looks great but, as a matter of racing, I find it pretty desperate to go and race a new rig not really tested...We want to see both boats racing, no one breaking before the end.

no training for A5 either that has yet to show a decent tack and sailing in winds above 15 knots (measured at 60 meters!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 00Z/12Z is uploaded. Sorry all, I am just reading the wind barbs to get strength (rounded to nearest 5) as I do not have a grib reader at work. Data are:

 

Feb 8: 10kts E, 8deg Cel (12Z, 288 hour forecast)

Feb 10: 5-10kts SE, 9deg Cel

Feb 12: 10kts NE, 8deg Cel

 

GFS is calling for a series of competing lows to move from WSW to ENE from off of Cadiz towards Sardinia, weakening and creating cwms or valleys with really far-apart isobars ... and lots of clouds and light rain.

 

In my own experience in the NW Atlantic, GFS is really bad at forecasting wind strengths in these conditions and usually overstates them by at least 5 knots.

 

Unless the model starts to predict a new macro pattern (which is actually somewhat likely this far out), its looking like really light stuff for the races.

 

I will try to put a grib reader on my work pc for future forecasts...

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if they will be giving forecasts for Valencia and if they do, whether they can be trusted. I think it highly unlikely, seeing that it is run by the Alinghi weather team!

PredictWind also blocked out predictions during the 2009 LVPS in Auckland. Much bigger stakes now, eh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12Z is uploaded. Thanks to ESTAR for pointing me to an excellent free grib reader that I was able to get onto the work PC.

 

Feb 8: 9kts NNE, 10deg Cel (12Z, 264 hour forecast)

Feb 10: 6kts NNW, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: 13kts W, 11deg Cel

 

Not much change in wind strengths except for day 3. Directions are totally different versus yesterday's forecast. Applying my own experience with the GFS model this far out (my experience is in the NW Atlantic, not the Med), when GFS keeps wind strengths below 10 but moves direction all around, the reality often turns out to be truly light and variable, like 3-6knots and bouncing around the compass.

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if they will be giving forecasts for Valencia and if they do, whether they can be trusted. I think it highly unlikely, seeing that it is run by the Alinghi weather team!

PredictWind also blocked out predictions during the 2009 LVPS in Auckland. Much bigger stakes now, eh?

 

Yes, they are blocking Valencia per contractual obligations: I am a subscriber except during the winter months, but decided the AC was worth paying a month non the less. They did refund me my money very promptly when I contacted them explaining the situation, and were very polite and professional about it.

 

And their data quality rocks - sometimes the timing of the wind development is a bit off by an hour or two, but it is really quite impressive, especially the 24 hour 1km models. It is expensive, but you get what you pay for :) .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12Z is uploaded. Big changes today

 

Feb 8: 7kts NNE, 11deg Cel (12Z, 240 hour forecast)

Feb 10: 15kts W, 8deg Cel

Feb 12: 15kts NW, 8deg Cel

 

The change is due to a new system the model is finding. In 'normal' conditions, the North Atlantic has a high or a series of highs spanning the ocean from Bermuda to the Azores and a low or series of lows spanning from Newfoundland to Iceland. When the ocean is nice and stable like that, there are steady trade winds over the ocean and generally light breezes over the eastern US and western Europe. But in the winter, strange things can (and do) happen, such as a low coming out of the Caribbean Sea and sending the Azores high eastward over land, which is what GFS is showing is going to happen between the 3rd and 5th of February. While this should give very pleasant weather and light winds to Valencia for a while, it is allowing an 'non-normal' situation to develop in the North Atlantic where highs and lows are oriented west-to-east across the center of the ocean. Once this situation develops, a series of relatively strong lows are predicted to move east into the Med.

 

If this situation actually unfolds, the forecasts for race-days will vary a lot as we get closer depending on whether the systems speed up or slow down or take a more northerly or southerly route. Just a six-hour adjustment in the forecast arrival of a low could mean the difference between 5 knot winds or 20 knots in Valencia at race time.

 

Stay tuned.

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is all very nice but as someone who lives on the receiving end of Atlantic lows, I can tell you that the state of the art for reasonably reliable forecasts is some 4-5 days out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is all very nice but as someone who lives on the receiving end of Atlantic lows, I can tell you that the state of the art for reasonably reliable forecasts is some 4-5 days out.

 

If you read the thread you will see that we know that already.

 

and don't believe it at all until at most 5 days out.

 

But starting to follow it now can give us some sense how stable (or unstable) the pattern is. And it's more fun and relevant than the other fanboy BS threads.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12Z is uploaded. Big changes again

 

Feb 8: 13kts SW, 15deg Cel (12Z, 240 hour forecast)

Feb 10: 17kts SW, 11deg Cel

Feb 12: 8kts WSW, 16deg Cel

 

Driving element in Valencia today is still that anomalous Azores winter low, but the model shows it clearing out of town (toward the NE) and being replaced by a more normal high by Thursday of this week. After that a couple of massive lows begin marching across the North Atlantic from Newfoundland to Ireland, the way they are supposed to in the winter. (Gonna be wet on the Irish coast at the end of this week). One of those lows becomes the driving force in European weather over the weekend and at the start of next week with 40+ knot winds off of Ireland and the wind field extending down all the way to Spain with 30+ knots in the Atlantic. The outer edge of that wind field reaches Valencia, hence the shift to SW direction and higher velocities.

 

And yes, people, Estar is right. The reasons for watching the weather this far out are:

1. It's interesting, and more fun than reading the slings and insults in some threads

2. Knowing the variability in the forecast helps understand the viability of the forecast

3. Understanding the macro weather pattern helps us understand the reasons for the forecast

 

So enjoy, and know that the only certainty is that the forecast will change again.

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12Z is uploaded.

 

Feb 8; 1300 local time: 9kts NE, 14deg Cel (12Z, 168 hour forecast)

Feb 8; 1600 local time: 10kts NE, 14deg Cel

Feb 10; 1300 local time: 5kts NNW, 11deg Cel

Feb 12; 1300 local time: 3kts N, 11deg Cel

 

Goes without saying that the forecast is bouncing all over the place versus prior forecasts.

 

 

Also, to consolidate and add some weather links. Thanks all for including these in your posts ... keep 'em coming.

Windfinder - Valencia Buoy

Accuweather - Valencia City

Norway Weather Office - Valencia (presumably City)

Meteo Valencia - Observations (presumably City)

AE Met - 3-Day Coastal Marine Forecast

Air Resources Lab - GFS Output Viewer

COLA (Ctr for Ocean, Land, Atmos) - Static GFS Output

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning I got 6knots offshore at start time, dropping to 2 knots vairable direction within an hour

 

Race abandoned?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is all very nice but as someone who lives on the receiving end of Atlantic lows, I can tell you that the state of the art for reasonably reliable forecasts is some 4-5 days out.

 

If you are trying to find a forecast to distinguish between 8 knots or 12 knots at a specific 20-mile chunk of salt water, just off the east shore of a large land mass, the reliable forecast window is actually more like 15 minutes out. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Feb 8 (add one hour to UTC for local time):

 

0000 UTC 14.6kts @ 196 degrees

0300 UTC 14.1kts @ 192

0600 UTC 13.3kts @ 199

0900 UTC 12.8kts @ 210

1200 UTC 11.1kts @ 218

1500 UTC 11.9kts @ 210

1800 UTC 16.0kts @ 218

2100 UTC 15.6kts @ 235

 

0900 UTC

post-8534-1265098329_thumb.jpg

 

1200 UTC

post-8534-1265098349_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How are we looking for Tuesday?

 

Monday the 8th updated and Tuesday added. I have left the old forecast for the 8th in green print so you can see the changes - basically the winds speeds are lower in the morning and have been raised in the afternoon.

 

Feb 8 (add one hour to UTC for local time, green is prior forecast & black is current forecast):

 

0000 (UTC 14.6kts @196,) 10.0@203

 

0300 (UTC 14.1kts @ 192,) 9.7@208

 

0600 (UTC 13.3kts @ 199,) 7.5@230

 

0900 (UTC 12.8kts @ 210,) 11.5@229

 

1200 (UTC 11.1kts @ 218,) 13.3@237

 

1500 (UTC 11.9kts @ 210,) 16.8@245

 

1800 (UTC 16.0kts @ 218,) 21.2@256

 

2100 (UTC 15.6kts @ 235,) 21.2@274

 

Feb 9

 

0000 UTC 17.4@268

 

0300 UTC 13.8@250

 

0600 UTC 16.9@244

 

0900 UTC 16.4@254

 

1200 UTC 15.1@249

 

1500 UTC 11.7@229

 

1800 UTC 13.7@233

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12Z is uploaded. Also am adding in NOGAPS since we are now within their window. All times listed are in local Valencia time (GMT+1)

 

Feb 8 GFS

0700: 7.7kts WSW

1000: 9.2kts SW

1300: 7.5kts SW, 14deg Cel (12Z, 144 hour forecast)

1600: 8.8kts WSW

 

Feb 8 NOGAPS

1300: 8.0kts SSW (12Z, 144 hour forecast)

 

Feb 10 GFS

1300: 12kts WSW, 14deg Cel

 

Feb 12 GFS

1300: 8.7kts SSW, 15deg Cel

 

 

The models are in basic agreement over the macro pattern for Feb 8, with small disagreement on the strengths and positions of the highs and lows, leading to a very small difference in the net forecast.

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be fascinating if this weather will be 'acceptable' for racing, as by afternoon there is both a 30 degree shift and 15.6kts at 10m height. The morning winds continue to get a little lighter while the afternoon seems to be stabilizing.

 

Feb 8 (add one hour to UTC for local time, green are prior forecasts and black the latest):

 

Forecast--------02/01----02/02----02/03 (latest)

0900 UTC 12.8kts @ 210, 11.5@229, 9.7 @ 222

1200 UTC 11.1kts @ 218, 13.3@237, 10.9 @ 232

1500 UTC 11.9kts @ 210, 16.8@245, 15.5 @ 252

1800 UTC 16.0kts @ 218, 21.2@256, 15.9 @ 284

2100 UTC 15.6kts @ 235, 21.2@274, 13.6 @ 280

 

Feb 8th 0900

post-8534-1265189723_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 8th 1200

post-8534-1265189741_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seem to recall in the SIs that the RC has the discretion to abandon if there is more than a 25 degree shift.

Be interesting to see if they ever exercise that discretion given that such a shift would not seem uncommon over the course of a 20Nm leg.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thanks estar.

as we get closer this gets more interesting.

what model are you using?

it seems to be a bit higher up the windrange than the others.

but i hope its right.

 

oz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What model are you using?

 

Its GFS.

 

Some of the variation between posters is probably exactly what location they are picking. I am using a point three miles east of the break wall entrance. Especially with a westerly, I suspect it is generally calmer if you pick a point right at the harbour entrance.

 

None of these models will do very well distinguishing between 6 and 10 kts.

 

We are still far enough away from the date, that a new system could pop up, and these forecasts could change completely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS and NOGAPS 12Z are uploaded.

 

Feb 8 GFS

0700: 6.7kts @ 209

1000: 7.1kts @ 215

1300: 10.2kts @ 219, 14deg Cel (12Z, 120 hour forecast)

1600: 11.5kts @ 239

 

Feb 8 NOGAPS

1300: 6.4kts @ 229 (12Z, 120 hour forecast)

 

Feb 10 GFS

0700: 11.6kts @ 249

1000: 12.0kts @ 250

1300: 13.6kts @ 236, 14deg Cel

1600: 12.6kts @ 242

 

Feb 12 GFS

1300: 9.4kts @ 274, 14deg Cel

 

 

All my readings are taken from 39.5N 00.0E, which is about 10 miles off shore. In general, add 1-2 knots of windspeed for another 10 miles further off, especially with the westerly breezes.

 

Driving pattern is a High building in over Spain this weekend and dissipating Sunday night or Monday morning, and then a weak low forming over Barcelona on Monday. Both models agree with this with small differences. However, if they move the timing or placement of that low just a small amount, we could see a major change in wind strength and direction. Stay tuned...

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the reports. It will be interesting to see how things develop as the week moves on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

post-8534-1265267182_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 8th

0900 9.3kts @246

1200 7.9kts @219

1500 9.7kts @263

 

post-8534-1265267152_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 10th

0900 13.4kts @237

1200 12.6kts @ 235

1500 13.4kts @254

 

post-8534-1265267170_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 12th

1200 7.5kts @ 259

 

I have moved my reporting position to be the same as 2Newts, so our forecasts/reports should be consistent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update. Winds now lower for the 8th, due to weak low tracking over the course. This is a difficult feature to predict accurately and could well change.

 

numbers in green = prior forecast, black = current forecast

winds speeds are at 10m, except number in ( ) is estimated kts for at 60m height

Times still UTC, add 1hr for Valencia local time

 

Feb 8th - Prior ---- Current ----

0900 9.3kts @246, 5.2 (8.4) @ 218

1200 7.9kts @219, 6.7 (10.9) @ 243

1500 9.7kts @263, 5.3 (8.6) @ 235

 

Feb 10th

0900 13.4kts @237, 10.3 (16.7) @ 227

1200 12.6kts @ 235, 14.1 (22.9) @ 223

1500 13.4kts @254, 13.6 (22.1) @ 214

 

Feb 12th

1200 7.5kts @ 259, vbl (3.3-5.5kts)

 

post-8534-1265287712_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for all your efforts putting these up Estar. If the general consensus is to be believed then these figures are going to be absolutely crucial!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<disclaimer> I'm not specifically familiar with the Valencia area.

 

Yet, being a med sailor, I would advise that the GFS model is usually not very well suited to our particular pond, and is often *way* off base. It does not take into account local effects that well, and those are often paramount here considering this is an enclosed piece of water.

 

Unfortunately I'm not aware of freely available data based on more adapted models (well, I am for other parts of the med such as http://www.meteoliguria.it/MAP/BOLAM/BOLAMin.htm , but nothing on the western/Spanish part), but I would just advise against speculating too much based on GFS data...

 

 

M - Well, except it's still fun anyway :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
<disclaimer> I'm not specifically familiar with the Valencia area.

 

Yet, being a med sailor, I would advise that the GFS model is usually not very well suited to our particular pond...

 

IME, GFS is not great over the water at MSL anywhere. NOGAPS tends to be more reliable in oceanic areas but I don't know how well tuned it is to the Med. How's COAMPS in the Med? I've had mixed results with it in other places but it is a free higher res model and real soon now will be forecasting for the 8th... (eg. http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?ht...et/mappage.htm)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

COAMPS-EURO is only producing 3 days ahead and only on 6 hr intervals, and right now their data for the Valencia area is identical to the gfs output.

 

Here is a comparison between GFS and NOGAPS for tomorrow. They are well within their statistical error bands of each other.

 

-----------GFS-------NOGAPS---------

0000 11.9 @ 240, 12.5 @ 245

0300 12.1 @ 213, 12.2 @ 263

0600 12.0 @ 210, 9.1 @ 267

 

All the models suck, that's just life with weather forecasting. And in this case its much worse, because the difference between 6kts and 9kts is important but none of the models will do well distinguishing well between 6kts and 9kts and they are all looking at 10m height where this race wil be more about winds at 40m height.

 

The search for pin-point accurate forecasts is in general futile because of chaos theory but even more futile than usual in this case. All we can do is look at likely scenarios and probabilities.

 

Accepting the caveats above, my own personal experience has been that gfs is pretty decent over even moderately open water (which this course is) , with COAMPS-USA (I have never studied COAMPS-EURO before) often being better tight to shore features.

 

That all said . . . here is the latest gfs :)

The 8th seems to have stabilized at 6-10kts for race time, but the 10th has a big change, much lighter.

 

numbers in green = prior forecast, black = current forecast

winds speeds are at 10m

Times still UTC, add 1hr for Valencia local time

 

Feb 8th ----------- Prior ----------- Current ----

0900 9.3kts @246, 5.2 @ 218, 8.1 @ 238

1200 7.9kts @219, 6.7 @ 243, 7.9 @ 234

1500 9.7kts @263, 5.3 @ 235, 2.2 @ 281

 

Feb 10th

0900 13.4kts @237, 10.3 @ 227, 4.5 @ 204

1200 12.6kts @ 235, 14.1 @ 223, 6.9 @ 191

1500 13.4kts @254, 13.6 @ 214, 3.3 @ 187

 

Feb 12th

1200 7.5kts @ 259, vbl (3.3-5.5kts), 7.5 @ 066

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

 

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

 

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

 

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp

Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel

Feb 12: outside forecast range

 

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

 

2N

 

The wind and sea conditions for the 33rd America's Cup scheduled race #1 looks promising as far as getting a race off and finished. Winds look like they will be from the SW @ about 7 knots at the planned start time of 1000HRS Valencia time. The wind goes left in the middle of the match and then back to the right if you believe the current forecast models.

 

It will be cool with a chance of passing showers.

 

Get out the black and white film and snap on a red filter and there should be some spectacular output with those effects in place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS and NOGAPS 12Z are uploaded.

 

Feb 8 GFS

0600: 8.2kts @ 236

0900: 8.8kts @ 239

1200: 9.1kts @ 230, 14deg Cel (12Z, 96 hour forecast)

1500: 1.4kts @ 238

 

Feb 8 NOGAPS

1200: 7.0kts @ 222 (12Z, 96 hour forecast)

 

Feb 10 GFS

0600: 7.3kts @ 252

0900: 4.7kts @ 190

1200: 7.8kts @ 185, 14deg Cel

1500: 4.3kts @ 173

 

Feb 10 NOGAPS

1200: 9.6kts @ 233

 

Feb 12 GFS

1200: 7.5kts @ 061, 11deg Cel

 

Note: I've changed time to be GMT/UTC/ZT to be in line with Estar. Add one hour for Valencia local time.

 

Driving pattern remains similar: a High building in over Spain this weekend and dissipating Sunday night or Monday morning, and then a weak low forming on Monday. The location of that Low will be critical. Right now, GFS is calling for it to center right over the race course at 1000h local, then to deepen, temporarily stalling long enough to kill all wind and then slide east on Tuesday leaving some very strong winds in its wake. GFS is calling for essentially a repeat of the same pattern on Wednesday/Thursday.

 

If this is the macro pattern that in fact develops, the location of the Low(s) in reference to Valencia will be of most importance. If a Low settles right over Valencia, we'd be looking at very light winds and highly variable directionality, probably too difficult to set a course. As long as center of the the Low is at least about 100 miles away, the directionality should be more stable. But if it really is a weak Low, windfields in excess of 10 knots will be several hundred miles away from the center.

 

Another note: To Rule69's commentary about GFS and NOGAPS, I agree that these models are notoriously flawed, especially in close to shore (and I love Mash's comment that the Med is an enclosed pond ... what, not an ocean course free from headlands?!?). And in fact COAMPS only goes out to 72 hours. But, the common factor for GFS, NOGAPS and COAMPS is that they are all free and available 6-7 hours after running, which makes them really attractive for our purposes. Does anyone know of a model that is free and available shortly after running that is better at predicting conditions in the Med? If you do, I am happy to start including it in my analysis. It would be nice to actually include a European-based model, seeing as how we are forecasting for a location in Europe...

 

2N

 

ps: my local forecast is for -3C, Snow and 25knot winds this weekend. Ugh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Another note: To Rule69's commentary about GFS and NOGAPS, I agree that these models are notoriously flawed, especially in close to shore (and I love Mash's comment that the Med is an enclosed pond ... what, not an ocean course free from headlands?!?). And in fact COAMPS only goes out to 72 hours. But, the common factor for GFS, NOGAPS and COAMPS is that they are all free and available 6-7 hours after running, which makes them really attractive for our purposes. Does anyone know of a model that is free and available shortly after running that is better at predicting conditions in the Med? If you do, I am happy to start including it in my analysis. It would be nice to actually include a European-based model, seeing as how we are forecasting for a location in Europe...

 

I hear you. Thanks for posting the tables. Good stuff and I didn't mean to be negative beyond the general skepticism of wx forecasts in general. I don't have a clue if it is better at predicting conditions in the Med (hopefully someone there will be able to answer) but there is another higher resolution model available http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?ht...net/mappage.htm (and probably elsewhere). Click the SWS-CM1 tab on the Western Med page. It is now producing results for the 8th at least... No big differences between it and the global mods that I can see though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the SWS-CM1

 

SWS-CM1 is produced by Sailing Weather Service, Chris Bedford's company Chris is working for DZ.

 

It might be interesting to follow it since it should reflect at least somewhat DZ's expectations. Their own website seems to say these are 48 hr models and after that they morph to gfs.

 

Unfortunately, the Americans seem to be the only ones willing to publish their gribs for free. Meteo France makes euro specific gribs but charges for them

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does anyone know of a model that is free and available shortly after running that is better at predicting conditions in the Med? If you do, I am happy to start including it in my analysis. It would be nice to actually include a European-based model, seeing as how we are forecasting for a location in Europe...

 

The SWS-CM1 model is an advanced high-resolution weather model developed by Sailing Weather Service, one of the world's most respected and successful weather routing and consulting companies... To view the SWS-CM1 forecasts for the AC race area, go to:

 

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/baleares/sws.htm

 

-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update:

- Feb 8th forecast remains stable at 6-10kts

- Feb 10th becomes light 3-6kts

- Feb 12th light in the morning but building

numbers in green = prior forecast, black = current forecast

winds speeds are at 10m

Times still UTC, add 1hr for Valencia local time

 

Feb 8th ----------------- Prior ----------- Current ----

0900 9.3kts @246, 5.2 @ 218, 8.1 @ 238, 9.0 @ 231

1200 7.9kts @219, 6.7 @ 243, 7.9 @ 234, 7.4 @ 219

1500 9.7kts @263, 5.3 @ 235, 2.2 @ 281, 6.4 @ 207

 

Feb 10th

0900 13.4kts @237, 10.3 @ 227, 4.5 @ 204, 3.3 @ 179

1200 12.6kts @ 235, 14.1 @ 223, 6.9 @ 191, 4.8 @ 198

1500 13.4kts @254, 13.6 @ 214, 3.3 @ 187, 3.9 @ 212

 

Feb 12th

0900----------------------------------- 3.6 @ 064

1200 7.5kts @ 259, vbl @ vbl, 7.5 @ 066, 8.7 @ 096

 

post-8534-1265356229_thumb.jpg

 

The SWS-CM1 model is an advanced high-resolution weather model . . . .world's most respected and successful weather routing and consulting companies...

You might consider an ad. Rather than going to your site, people can get the SWS model results direct from SWS's own (ad and fee free) site: Chart at: http://206.166.134.206/PUBLIC-bin/nwp_publ...model_domain=d2 and Gribs at: http://206.166.134.206/PUBLIC/grib.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Update:

- Feb 8th forecast remains stable at 6-10kts

- Feb 10th becomes light 3-6kts

- Feb 12th light in the morning but building

That'd be near perfect mix. Let's hope it lasts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Update:

- Feb 8th forecast remains stable at 6-10kts

- Feb 10th becomes light 3-6kts

- Feb 12th light in the morning but building

That'd be near perfect mix. Let's hope it lasts.

 

At sea level, 15m, 60m?

Any intel on this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Update:

- Feb 8th forecast remains stable at 6-10kts

- Feb 10th becomes light 3-6kts

- Feb 12th light in the morning but building

That'd be near perfect mix. Let's hope it lasts.

 

At sea level, 15m, 60m?

Any intel on this?

 

At 10 m

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
At sea level, 15m, 60m?

 

According to the wind generator guys, the wind at 60m will generally be about 30% higher than at 10m (that assumes a roughness class =1.0), but they could be as little as 15% or as much as 60% higher depending on the specific met conditions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So where do we think the cut off points are.

 

Both boats will be on one hull with a 10m wind of 5kts.

 

The general consensus is that somewhere between 7 and 10 is where the extra wait of BO will turn into more power rather than more drag.

 

I wonder how much water ballast Alinghi's frame can take?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update:

- 8th: about the same, just a little more wind 8-11kts

- 10th: a bit more wind 7-10kts than before, with new low developing south of the course

- 12th : a lot more wind 10-20kts than before, with new low developing NE of the course

 

 

numbers in green = prior forecast, black = current forecast

winds speeds are at 10m

Times still UTC, add 1hr for Valencia local time

 

Feb 8th ----------------- Prior --------------------------- Current ----

0900 9.3kts @246, 5.2 @ 218, 8.1 @ 238, 9.0 @ 231, 8.2 @ 238

1200 7.9kts @219, 6.7 @ 243, 7.9 @ 234, 7.4 @ 219, 11.2 @ 216

1500 9.7kts @263, 5.3 @ 235, 2.2 @ 281, 6.4 @ 207, 9.8 @ 251

 

Feb 10th

0900 13.4kts @237, 10.3 @ 227, 4.5 @ 204, 3.3 @ 179, 7.9 @ 238

1200 12.6kts @ 235, 14.1 @ 223, 6.9 @ 191, 4.8 @ 198, 9.9 @ 235

1500 13.4kts @254, 13.6 @ 214, 3.3 @ 187, 3.9 @ 212, 13.4 @ 252

 

Feb 12th

0900----------------------------------------- 3.6 @ 064, 9.9 @ 025

1200 7.5kts @ 259, vbl @ vbl, 7.5 @ 066, 8.7 @ 096, 17.7 @ 036

1500-----------------------------------------------------, 20.6 @ 044

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most 12Z models are uploaded. I am including more models as we are getting into the window for them.

 

Feb 8

GFS

0600: 7.2kts @ 246

0900: 8.8kts @ 240

1200: 12.6kts @ 212, 13deg Cel (12Z model, 72 hour forecast)

1500: 9.6kts @ 245

 

SWS

0600: 1.8kts @ 356

0900: 3.8kts @ 338

1200: 3.9kts @ 015 (06Z model, 78 hour forecast)

1500: 5.2kts @ 044

 

NOGAPS

0600: 6.7kts @ 202

1200: 7.0kts @ 207 (12Z model, 72 hour forecast)

 

COAMPS

1200: ca. 7 @ 015 (12Z model, 72 hour forecast)

(I read this off a graphical forecast. Have not found a GRIB source for COAMPS Europe - if you know one please let me know)

 

The key to Monday remains the transition from the big High over Spain this weekend (which is causing the heavy winds in VLC now) to the Low(s) on Monday. Each model is looking at the transition differently, and the variance between models gives a good idea of just how difficult it is at this time to forecast the wind for Monday. As I said yesterday, everything depends on the timing and location of the Low ... right now the models are in basic agreement that the Low will be weak but disagree on location.

 

Be prepared. The closer the Low is to Valencia at 1000 on Monday, the more difficult it will be for Harold to set a course.

 

 

Feb 10

GFS

0600: 13.1kts @ 253

0900: 8.1kts @ 238

1200: 9.7kts @ 228, 14deg Cel

1500: 13.4kts @ 246

 

SWS

0600: 5.8kts @ 194

0900: Beyond Forecast Range

1200:

1500:

 

NOGAPS

1200: 12.9kts @ 270

 

COAMPS

1200: Beyond Forecast Range

 

Wednesday continues to have a very similar pattern to Monday, and all depends on the timing and location of the Low. NOGAPS is actually calling for the Low to develop over France and be deeper, hence the higher wind strength.

 

 

Feb 12

GFS

0600: 14.1kts @ 030

0900: 11.8kts @ 027

1200: 21.5kts @ 041, 14deg Cel

1500: 24.3kts @ 047

 

SWS

0600:

0900:

1200:

1500:

 

NOGAPS

1200:

 

COAMPS

1200:

 

Friday is setting up a bit differently with an anomalous and fairly strong High NW of Scotland and Lows over southern Spain and northern Africa, with a healthy gradient between them. I do not know how commonly this set-up actually occurs in the winter so I cannot speak to its likelihood of developing, but if it does, EB and LE could get a chance to put their high-wind strategies into play.

 

As usual, stay tuned ...

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Feb 8th difference between SWS and the other models is interesting. They all seem to have the same general synoptic situation (a weak low to the N/NE of the course) but SWS assumes the shore will block the SW wind while the other models assume some wind with work in over the shore. This may imply there will be a strong vertical wind gradient with little wind at the surface but rather more at 60m, and the models are just disagreeing on how much at 10m

 

SWS Feb 8th

post-8534-1265402452_thumb.jpg

 

GFS Feb 8th

post-8534-1265402495_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the proposed race courses (first graphic)

post-10646-1265402366_thumb.jpg

P.S. Forgot attribution for that course graphic showing both Race 1 (20 mile windward/leeward) and Race 2 (13 mile triangle, 1st leg to windward) to Valencia Sailing:

 

http://valenciasailing.blogspot.com/2010/0...ns-2-weeks.html

 

Speculating, if the wind is from the Southeast, as it was three days in a row during afternoon hours recently (Feb. 1..3), might the course be angled as shown in red, with the start/finish near shore?

post-10646-1265414983_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
P.S. Forgot attribution for that course graphic showing both Race 1 (20 mile windward/leeward) and Race 2 (13 mile triangle, 1st leg to windward) to Valencia Sailing:

 

http://valenciasailing.blogspot.com/2010/0...ns-2-weeks.html

 

Speculating, if the wind is from the Southeast, as it was three days in a row during afternoon hours recently (Feb. 1..3), might the course be angled as shown in red, with the start/finish near shore?

post-10646-1265414983_thumb.png

Or wind from the Southwest, turning mark near land? How close and still be free of headlands, shipping traffic, deep enough, etc.?

post-10646-1265426240_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update:

- 8th: about the same, quite stable forecast 7kts-10kts

- 10th: very uncertain, this forecast dropped the winds down to very light (3kts) at start time

- 12th : also uncertain, 6-8 kts forecast now

- The high resolution models (SWS and Coamps) are consistently showing lighter winds than the 'normal' models (GFS and nogaps) in the Valencia gulf (on the race course). There is a good probility that the winds at 10m will be somewhat lighter than shown by GFS (below), & there will be a significant vertical wind gradient.

GFS model

numbers in green = prior forecast, black = current forecast

winds speeds are at 10m

Times still UTC, add 1hr for Valencia local time

 

 

--------------- Prior -------- Current ----

Feb 8th

0900 9.0 @ 231, 8.2 @ 238, 7.5 @ 223

1200 7.4 @ 219, 11.2 @ 216, 8.8 @ 231

1500 6.4 @ 207, 9.8 @ 251, 10.9 @ 227

 

Feb 10th

0900 3.3 @ 179, 7.9 @ 238, 3.8 @ 280

1200 4.8 @ 198, 9.9 @ 235, 3.4 @ 150

1500 3.9 @ 212, 13.4 @ 252, 8.1 @ 136

 

Feb 12th

0900 3.6 @ 064, 9.9 @ 025, 6.7 @ 095

1200 8.7 @ 096, 17.7 @ 036, 7.4 @ 162

1500 -----------, 20.6 @ 044, 6.4 @ 096

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the SWS high resolution model for the 8th. As noted above it is a knot or two lighter than the gfs, and more westerly. But the two models are actually essentially the same close given the statistical confidence level for a micro forecast 2 days out.

 

Feb 8th

 

0900 6kts @ 279

1000 6 @ 274

1100 8 @ 274

1200 7 @ 266

1500 6 @ 221

 

For the 10th, SWS is again a few kts lighter in the morning (essentially no wind at 10m) but both modles have it building 5-8kts in the afternoon. It will be interesting to see if they can race in the morning, posibily zero wind on deck but some wind at the top of the sail. But this forecast is not yet settled and has still been bouncing around a lot much depending on where the low materializes.

 

10th

 

0900 2 @ 058

1000 1 @ 158

1100 3 @ 187

1200 5 @ 179

1500 8 @ 145

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is the SWS high resolution model for the 8th. As noted above it is a knot or two lighter than the gfs, and more westerly. But the two models are actually essentially the same close given the statistical confidence level for a micro forecast 2 days out.

 

Feb 8th

 

0900 6kts @ 279

1000 6 @ 274

1100 8 @ 274

1200 7 @ 266

1500 6 @ 221

 

For the 10th, SWS is again a few kts lighter, which makes it essential no wind at 10m. It will be interesting to see if they can race with the higher winds at the top of the sail, if this forecast materializes. But this forecast is not yet settled and has been bouncing around so much depending on where the low materializes.

 

10th

 

0900 2 @ 058

1000 1 @ 158

1100 3 @ 187

1200 5 @ 179

1500 8 @ 145

 

thanks for the numbers and pics guys

 

starting to build a visual picture of the course and winds into mind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 10th is looking complex. A system is forecast to form just to the NE of the course and to move south during the race time, so there is almost a 100 degree wind shift. Not sure if they can finish a race with that situation.

 

Valencia is in the gulf in the upper right corner of these graphics

 

Feb 10th 0900UTC

post-8534-1265472444_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 10th 1200UTC

post-8534-1265472455_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 10th 1500UTC

post-8534-1265472465_thumb.jpg

 

These are graphics from the SWS model

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Estar, if only my naviguesser was as thorough.........great job.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My pleasure, but do remember Mr. Chaos. The only thing we can be sure of, is that the forecast will be wrong. The real question for the Naviguesser is how far wrong could it be (scenarios and probabilities).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Feb 8th model comparison:

I would give the nod to SWS as the most likely to be tuned to the local conditions

 

---------COAMPS-------GFS----------SWS-----NOGAPS

 

0600 5.9kts @ 283, 6.6 @ 223, 7 @ 240, 8.0 @ 207

 

0900 ------------------ 9.2 @ 237, 11 @ 243-----------

 

1200 2.8kts @ 192, 10.3 @ 214, 8 @ 243, 7.6 @ 235

 

1500------------------- 9.5 @ 238, 8 @ 188----------------

 

1800 7.3kts @ 188, 9.8 @ 257, 7 @ 174, 10.1 @ 226

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's what Accuweather and two other commercial sites is saying for the 8th. Good agreement with each other and the models.

 

A bit dreary:

 

post-8534-1265488159_thumb.jpg

post-8534-1265488581_thumb.jpg

post-8534-1265488589_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most 12Z models are uploaded. I am including more models as we are getting into the window for them.

 

Feb 8

GFS

0600: 6.9kts @ 218

0900: 10.2kts @ 236

1200: 11.6kts @ 213 (12Z model, 48 hour forecast)

1500: 9.4kts @ 228

 

SWS

0600: 7.2kts @ 241

0900: 11.6kts @ 240

1200: 13.1kts @ 257 (06Z model, 54 hour forecast)

1500: 10.6kts @ 215

 

NOGAPS

0600: 8.1kts @ 206

1200: 8.1kts @ 235 (12Z model, 48 hour forecast)

 

COAMPS

1200: 4.5kts @ 205 (12Z model, 48 hour forecast)

 

The key to Monday remains the transition from the big High over Spain this weekend to the Low(s) on Monday. Each model is looking at the transition differently, and the variance between models gives a good idea of just how difficult it is at this time to forecast the wind for Monday. I am sounding like a broken record, but everything depends on the timing and location of the Low.

 

To give an idea of how critical the location of the Low is to the forecast, the SWS model is calling for winds under 5 knots in the SW portion of the race-course area (see the post above) to 17+ knots in the NE portion.

 

I still think it could be very difficult for Harold to set a course, and there could be a lot of influence on him regarding where in the race area he sets the course.

 

 

Feb 10

GFS

0600: 9.2kts @ 285

0900: 8.8kts @ 296

1200: 0.9kts @ 297

1500: 6.9kts @ 118

 

SWS

0600: 8.9kts @ 320

0900: 8.1kts @ 271

1200: 3.7kts @ 210

1500: 10.1kts @ 149

 

NOGAPS

1200: 9.7kts @ 356

 

COAMPS

1200: Beyond Forecast Range

 

Like Estar said, Wednesday is shaping up to be very complex. Stay tuned to see if the timing of the passing Low changes. Right now it looks to me that they could get the race in if the shift takes place after about 11am (when they get to the windward mark), but that the last leg might be a deep VMG downwind leg.

 

The Wednesday forecast WILL change, that is all we know for sure.

 

NOGAPS is still calling for a strong driving Low at race time, but they have moved it to be centered over Venice Italy thus putting Valencia much further from the strong wind field.

 

 

Feb 12

GFS

0600: 11.4kts @ 059

0900: 11.9kts @ 031

1200: 8.3kts @ 000

1500: 5.4kts @ 025

 

SWS

0600: Beyond Forecast Range

0900:

1200:

1500:

 

NOGAPS

1200: 3.0kts @ 208

 

COAMPS

1200:

 

Like EB and LE, the models cannot agree on a thing regarding Friday's conditions.

 

As usual, stay tuned ...

 

2N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(bump)

 

Both teams should plan to race on Monday.

 

7 knots out of 247 at 10AM. Mostly cloudy. Cool to cold and scattered showers.

 

Seas should be very modest.

 

The racing should begin on time as their is no reason to expect a shift of any significance within 90 minutes of the start.

 

Set your alarm clocks if you are here in the states unless you are in Hawaii you can choose to watch the racing beginning at 11:30PM Sunday night.

 

Similar deal for some Alaskans...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

does anyone know which model(s) are most accurate from a historical perspective...i.e. how many standard deviations out from actual type of thing....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
does anyone know which model(s) are most accurate from a historical perspective...i.e. how many standard deviations out from actual type of thing....

 

AVN and CMC. ECMWF is okay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bump.

 

Thanks Mark. What are the odds that your prediction is low? High? Russell has suggested that the TWS is material.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites