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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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punter

VOR Leg 4

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One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats. Kenny would have to sign off on these decisions I assume - but is it a case where Addis is not presenting him the best options? How does that work?

 

The thing that makes it hard for me is it really seems like Kenny is a tremendous driver - and he's very, very good at managing the team. So it just seems to point to bad strategy. And these problems coming in at Puma's loss of Cape (compared to how well he's doing on Tele), sure points to Addis as the issue.

 

Dude, enough of your uninformed comments please. Keep it in your pants. Speculating who is good and who is bad on a boat, when by the sounds of it you have not done an offshore race, let alone anything close to tactician, nav, or skipper, is just not on. Particularly on pro sailors that have as much experience and skill as this bunch.

 

Thanks

 

Those little squiggly things at the end of the string of words up there are question marks.

 

He has a point, though. Really appreciate your enthusiasm for the event, but some of your posts have been pretty spectacularly uninformed. It is certainly not necessary to be an expert to participate in this thread (as you yourself stated), but a little less shooting from the hip and a bit more thought before posting could dramatically improve the quality of your contributions here.

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Telefonica has caught up a lot of their losses in the last 2 scheds.

I wonder if it's going to turn out like the start of leg 2 where all the boats were completely limited by the front they all butted into.

I think ADOR has actually been the (net) quickest overall since Taiwan.

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One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats. Kenny would have to sign off on these decisions I assume - but is it a case where Addis is not presenting him the best options? How does that work?

 

The thing that makes it hard for me is it really seems like Kenny is a tremendous driver - and he's very, very good at managing the team. So it just seems to point to bad strategy. And these problems coming in at Puma's loss of Cape (compared to how well he's doing on Tele), sure points to Addis as the issue.

 

Dude, enough of your uninformed comments please. Keep it in your pants. Speculating who is good and who is bad on a boat, when by the sounds of it you have not done an offshore race, let alone anything close to tactician, nav, or skipper, is just not on. Particularly on pro sailors that have as much experience and skill as this bunch.

 

Thanks

 

Those little squiggly things at the end of the string of words up there are question marks.

 

He has a point, though. Really appreciate your enthusiasm for the event, but some of your posts have been pretty spectacularly uninformed. It is certainly not necessary to be an expert to participate in this thread (as you yourself stated), but a little less shooting from the hip and a bit more thought before posting could dramatically improve the quality of your contributions here.

 

Well, here's the deal. I'm a fan of the VOR. A huge fan. I'm not a pro by any means...I make no claim at being "spectacularly informed". So what I post is purely what a US-based rabid fan thinks and sees while watching a damn compelling sporting event.

 

It's all shooting from the hip - because I, like any interested fan, have to try to make sense of it based on my very limited off-shore racing experience. If I had more "thought", I'd "contribute" it. I just don't. Because I'm a fan.

 

To give you some perspective on that, I summoned The Google on this whole Navigator/Skipper relationship question. Here's what I got:

 

http://www.yachtraci...positions1.html

 

http://yachtpals.com/stan-honey-4177

 

http://www.sailingma...Scankillyou.htm

 

http://www.volvoocea...al-options.html

 

So, again, as an uninformed-yet-compelled-and-somewhat-experienced fan, if you guys can't answer the questions...okay...no harm no foul. You're in the same boat as me. If you can answer them, but have some bar that I need to jump over before you'll answer them...well....screw that.

 

I'm just saying it's not that easy to become "spectacularly informed" without asking some pretty basic questions. And The Google kind of sucks at that. So?

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One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats. Kenny would have to sign off on these decisions I assume - but is it a case where Addis is not presenting him the best options? How does that work?

 

The thing that makes it hard for me is it really seems like Kenny is a tremendous driver - and he's very, very good at managing the team. So it just seems to point to bad strategy. And these problems coming in at Puma's loss of Cape (compared to how well he's doing on Tele), sure points to Addis as the issue.

 

Dude, enough of your uninformed comments please. Keep it in your pants. Speculating who is good and who is bad on a boat, when by the sounds of it you have not done an offshore race, let alone anything close to tactician, nav, or skipper, is just not on. Particularly on pro sailors that have as much experience and skill as this bunch.

 

Thanks

 

Those little squiggly things at the end of the string of words up there are question marks.

 

He has a point, though. Really appreciate your enthusiasm for the event, but some of your posts have been pretty spectacularly uninformed. It is certainly not necessary to be an expert to participate in this thread (as you yourself stated), but a little less shooting from the hip and a bit more thought before posting could dramatically improve the quality of your contributions here.

So where else do you suggest asking these types of questions if you really are interested in the answers. Seems to me that some of you get all high and mighty when someone who may or may not know starts asking legitimate questions. Like it's the most obvious thing in the world. Fuck you for that(not you personally but the other idiot who was spewing retardation) a question is a question. If it's uninformed then edumacate him. If it's not. . . shit it's still a question so edumacate him.

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One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats. Kenny would have to sign off on these decisions I assume - but is it a case where Addis is not presenting him the best options? How does that work?

 

The thing that makes it hard for me is it really seems like Kenny is a tremendous driver - and he's very, very good at managing the team. So it just seems to point to bad strategy. And these problems coming in at Puma's loss of Cape (compared to how well he's doing on Tele), sure points to Addis as the issue.

 

Dude, enough of your uninformed comments please. Keep it in your pants. Speculating who is good and who is bad on a boat, when by the sounds of it you have not done an offshore race, let alone anything close to tactician, nav, or skipper, is just not on. Particularly on pro sailors that have as much experience and skill as this bunch.

 

Thanks

 

Those little squiggly things at the end of the string of words up there are question marks.

 

He has a point, though. Really appreciate your enthusiasm for the event, but some of your posts have been pretty spectacularly uninformed. It is certainly not necessary to be an expert to participate in this thread (as you yourself stated), but a little less shooting from the hip and a bit more thought before posting could dramatically improve the quality of your contributions here.

So where else do you suggest asking these types of questions if you really are interested in the answers. Seems to me that some of you get all high and mighty when someone who may or may not know starts asking legitimate questions. Like it's the most obvious thing in the world. Fuck you for that(not you personally but the other idiot who was spewing retardation) a question is a question. If it's uninformed then edumacate him. If it's not. . . shit it's still a question so edumacate him.

 

Thanks loop.

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One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats. Kenny would have to sign off on these decisions I assume - but is it a case where Addis is not presenting him the best options? How does that work?

 

The thing that makes it hard for me is it really seems like Kenny is a tremendous driver - and he's very, very good at managing the team. So it just seems to point to bad strategy. And these problems coming in at Puma's loss of Cape (compared to how well he's doing on Tele), sure points to Addis as the issue.

 

Dude, enough of your uninformed comments please. Keep it in your pants. Speculating who is good and who is bad on a boat, when by the sounds of it you have not done an offshore race, let alone anything close to tactician, nav, or skipper, is just not on. Particularly on pro sailors that have as much experience and skill as this bunch.

 

Thanks

 

Those little squiggly things at the end of the string of words up there are question marks.

 

He has a point, though. Really appreciate your enthusiasm for the event, but some of your posts have been pretty spectacularly uninformed. It is certainly not necessary to be an expert to participate in this thread (as you yourself stated), but a little less shooting from the hip and a bit more thought before posting could dramatically improve the quality of your contributions here.

So where else do you suggest asking these types of questions if you really are interested in the answers. Seems to me that some of you get all high and mighty when someone who may or may not know starts asking legitimate questions. Like it's the most obvious thing in the world. Fuck you for that(not you personally but the other idiot who was spewing retardation) a question is a question. If it's uninformed then edumacate him. If it's not. . . shit it's still a question so edumacate him.

 

Note that I was not criticizing him for his question(s) per se - generally no problem with that. Rather, what I am taking issue with are his bold speculations/insinuations ("Addis is the issue" WTF?) and statements that frequently lack any base in what is really happening in the race and/or fly the face of basic sailing knowledge.

Nobody expects him (or anybody else) to be "spectacularly informed" (BTW nice strawman that, smackdaddy) and there is nothing wrong with asking questions - more than happy to participate in the conversation and share information. But if one just "know a few basic bits" (his words) and hopes to learn from others, common courtesy would suggest not shooting one's mouth off all the time and holding back on the grand proclamations a bit...

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Let's keep the faith guys. Puma is on a roll, they are pulling something so brilliant that we just can't see it yet. Must be inside knowledge on that Northerly starting to blow for real soon now, that's going to be an epic reach for Hawaii. Expedition, we need you sir!

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HELM DOWN!!!!!!

 

Sorry for shouting....but they don't seem to be listening..... :huh:

 

 

Fuckit, heading for Hawaii and a Mai Tai.

 

Even Hawaii would be fine....

More like the hot baths in Okinawa with an Asahi beer in hand...WTF!

I'll eat my hat if they pull this one off...

Way better than the Froggies effort in Leg 1.

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just trying to get my head around what their objectives are. Do we think they are aiming for 140.....150....160 eastings before they start to head south. Seems a bloody long way to go to me or is that Ocean racing. From the last three legs it seems there is a bit more chasing the breeze than I was aware of. Does anyone know where Expedition is, can we expect some informed naviguessing anytime soon.

 

Meanwhile, I am not sure Hawaii is that way either, maybe Puma fear coming home and are looking into defecting. I heard if you go far enough north you can probably "see Russia Alaska from there".

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There is method in their madness. If, or maybe IF the models hold they expect the leaders to be forced south off the front of the building H and into light following winds. Then the leaders will have to jibe back to the North while P carries the breeze up to them... Could happen... Stranger things have happened. But, honestly, as I see it even if it all comes out perfectly for P I don't see them catching C or G... But that's eyeball routing. Expedition probably has a better take on it.

 

Edit: should add I presume something local and funky caused them to head N again and they'll be going E next sked... If not, I have no clue what they're up to.

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Let's keep the faith guys. Puma is on a roll, they are pulling something so brilliant that we just can't see it yet. Must be inside knowledge on that Northerly starting to blow for real soon now, that's going to be an epic reach for Hawaii. Expedition, we need you sir!

 

Yeah they've seen something everyone else missed(?)

It'll either be a MASSIVE gain or a MASSIVE loss.

 

But fark me -150nm already, that's tough.

 

 

 

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The VOR site had an article earlier today wherein Tom Addis explained that "the plan is be furthest east once the fleet turns south". Assuming this is not an act of psychological warfare from Addis to confuse the rest of the fleet, it may tie in with the observations above that Puma is positioning for the Mai Tais in Hawaii. Or close -- they need to get to 170 long to clear Papua New Guinea (I remember well from the 2008/09 VOR game -- don't go there). But what's the rationale -- I googled and it appears that "A squared + B squared = C squared" also applies on a sphere; so it only makes sense if they believe sailing a direct southeast course is even more costly. And on that everyone seems to agree for now...so I'd like to think that Puma is investing in a mind bogglingly great next week....an Epic Reach, and steering clear of the uncertain winds that Rule69 referred to above, that may require the rest to steer North in due course --- crossing Puma's by then days old wake?

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"One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats."

 

I've nothing to do with the VOR. I've done 3 Fastnets and a bunch of similar shorter (100-200 mile) events. Done some navigating. Done some skippering (but not of ocean races). So I think I know something but less than some others here.

 

First thing, not all boats run the same. Some have a command and control style. Some are more inclusive in decision-making. I don't mean "democracy" but I do mean discussion, at least involving a core of the crew. IMO the first works better for short round-the-buoys racing and the second works better for ocean racing where most (not all) of the time, very rapid decisions aren't needed.

 

On the whole I'd say, navigator advises, skipper decides. If the skipper regularly decides to ignore the advice, then the navigator's position is untenable.

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Let's keep the faith guys. Puma is on a roll, they are pulling something so brilliant that we just can't see it yet.

 

I've been racing for 30 years and I'm yet to see a race where the quickest route to the next mark involves sailing directly away from it. But there's a first time for everything. If it pays for them I will be impressed. Also surprised.

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Puma looks to have tacked again, the tracker says they are heading 035, but the graphic and the track appear more like 350, maybe the tracker is dyslexic!

 

I am sure there are much smarter guys than me on Puma, but I can't understand their strategy.

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Let's keep the faith guys. Puma is on a roll, they are pulling something so brilliant that we just can't see it yet.

 

I've been racing for 30 years and I'm yet to see a race where the quickest route to the next mark involves sailing directly away from it. But there's a first time for everything. If it pays for them I will be impressed. Also surprised.

I would tend to agree, in general the fastest route is the shortest. However there are a number of examples where the longest route has worked.

Some obvious examples: The first VO70 race when on the long leg they passed through a gate near NZ and then ABN2 (I think?) then turned round and went back north.

On the route from Europe to the SOUthern Ocean or South Africa you will end up going away from the mark to get around the high. Most obvious in the BWR when Virbac and Foncia sailed around the rest of the fleet.

BAnque Pop record run at the start of the year. In the North Atlantic they were sailing away from the finish to get the fastest route.

Leg 2 - Groupama sailed South and around the fleet, but then lost it in the doldrums.

 

So, maybe, just maybe, Puma can do something.

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Let's keep the faith guys. Puma is on a roll, they are pulling something so brilliant that we just can't see it yet.

 

I've been racing for 30 years and I'm yet to see a race where the quickest route to the next mark involves sailing directly away from it. But there's a first time for everything. If it pays for them I will be impressed. Also surprised.

I would tend to agree, in general the fastest route is the shortest. However there are a number of examples where the longest route has worked.

Some obvious examples: The first VO70 race when on the long leg they passed through a gate near NZ and then ABN2 (I think?) then turned round and went back north.

On the route from Europe to the SOUthern Ocean or South Africa you will end up going away from the mark to get around the high. Most obvious in the BWR when Virbac and Foncia sailed around the rest of the fleet.

BAnque Pop record run at the start of the year. In the North Atlantic they were sailing away from the finish to get the fastest route.

Leg 2 - Groupama sailed South and around the fleet, but then lost it in the doldrums.

 

So, maybe, just maybe, Puma can do something.

 

Believe that was Ericsson 3 in the last race from Qingdao to Brazil. Went through the gate for points scoring and then did an almost u-turn to get above a system.

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Let's keep the faith guys. Puma is on a roll, they are pulling something so brilliant that we just can't see it yet.

 

I've been racing for 30 years and I'm yet to see a race where the quickest route to the next mark involves sailing directly away from it. But there's a first time for everything. If it pays for them I will be impressed. Also surprised.

I would tend to agree, in general the fastest route is the shortest. However there are a number of examples where the longest route has worked.

Some obvious examples: The first VO70 race when on the long leg they passed through a gate near NZ and then ABN2 (I think?) then turned round and went back north.

On the route from Europe to the SOUthern Ocean or South Africa you will end up going away from the mark to get around the high. Most obvious in the BWR when Virbac and Foncia sailed around the rest of the fleet.

BAnque Pop record run at the start of the year. In the North Atlantic they were sailing away from the finish to get the fastest route.

Leg 2 - Groupama sailed South and around the fleet, but then lost it in the doldrums.

 

So, maybe, just maybe, Puma can do something.

 

Believe that was Ericsson 3 in the last race from Qingdao to Brazil. Went through the gate for points scoring and then did an almost u-turn to get above a system.

 

 

 

do you guys remember what happed in Virtual Volvo Race on the long leg last time? I know it was virual only, but...

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Puma have over cooked it .Good idea looking at the weather scheds earlier on .By the time they turn its too late for them to catch up on the easterlies coming in in 12 hours . Groupama have played it right setting the boat up for reaching.Can Puma catch up 226 miles in 12 hours ,I do not think so.

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Although it seems odd to all of us that Puma keeps going North, if you track the wind over the next 72 hours, it shows that Puma could be on a run heading east with some strong winds. This would push them well east of the fleet in a short time. Although they would have to make up the fact that they are 200nm north of the fleet. I see this similar to the move in the 3rd leg, where they find themselves around 3rd/4th place when they join the leaders, which would put them in better shape. If they would have stayed on the same path as the leaders, they would have continued to fall behind and stay in last place. When you're last you gotta try something, right?

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"One thing I honestly don't know is the real responsibility split between skipper and navigator on these boats."

 

I've nothing to do with the VOR. I've done 3 Fastnets and a bunch of similar shorter (100-200 mile) events. Done some navigating. Done some skippering (but not of ocean races). So I think I know something but less than some others here.

 

First thing, not all boats run the same. Some have a command and control style. Some are more inclusive in decision-making. I don't mean "democracy" but I do mean discussion, at least involving a core of the crew. IMO the first works better for short round-the-buoys racing and the second works better for ocean racing where most (not all) of the time, very rapid decisions aren't needed.

 

On the whole I'd say, navigator advises, skipper decides. If the skipper regularly decides to ignore the advice, then the navigator's position is untenable.

 

Thanks for the explanation dog. That helps.

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Although it seems odd to all of us that Puma keeps going North, if you track the wind over the next 72 hours, it shows that Puma could be on a run heading east with some strong winds. This would push them well east of the fleet in a short time. Although they would have to make up the fact that they are 200nm north of the fleet. I see this similar to the move in the 3rd leg, where they find themselves around 3rd/4th place when they join the leaders, which would put them in better shape. If they would have stayed on the same path as the leaders, they would have continued to fall behind and stay in last place. When you're last you gotta try something, right?

 

Yep What would have happened if Telefonica had stayed in instead of tacking to the fleet ,They would have been away in the easterlies by now heading to NZ.It has to be an absolute nightmare for the navigessor. Buffalo Girls.

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..."So, will PUMA’s gamble pay off?

 

Volvo Ocean Race chief meteorologist Gonzalo Infante said the next 24 hours would prove critical for Ken Read and his crew.

 

“PUMA’s timing could be just right, and if they are lucky they will pick up the new breeze long before the rest of the fleet,” Infante said.

 

“It is a critical time for them now.”...

 

...just sit conformable in your "lazy-boyz"...and watch your blue screens...I'm with Kenny...Hope he'll pull this off...!! Strong Winds Puma !!!

 

 

 

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If you call Puma buffalo girls ,then i know what you are talking about .The next 24 hours will tell us if its right. I dont think they are . I will go for Groupama. It will be interesting what Ador will do.Will any 24 hour records go when the wind picks up?

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This is what worries me...for obvious reasons:

 

Telefónica navigator Andrew Cape was clearly surprised by the move.

 

"Phew!" he said. "They were next to us yesterday when we were in the light winds. They chose to go north to get the breeze and it's... interesting. I mean, once they get the breeze they are looking for they will be on course and going quite well, but they have some catching up to do.”

 

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This is what worries me...for obvious reasons:

 

Telefónica navigator Andrew Cape was clearly surprised by the move.

 

"Phew!" he said. "They were next to us yesterday when we were in the light winds. They chose to go north to get the breeze and it's... interesting. I mean, once they get the breeze they are looking for they will be on course and going quite well, but they have some catching up to do."

 

 

desperate times call for desperate measures

 

Don't worry Mate...Everything It's Gonna be All Right...;)

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Yes sire....Puma is in 20 knots of Northerlies. Hit the timer -- Operation "Fetch and Devour" has begun, next turning point 150 East.

...sure hope so...but a long time to gooooo....

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Yes sire....Puma is in 20 knots of Northerlies. Hit the timer -- Operation "Fetch and Devour" has begun, next turning point 150 East.

...sure hope so...but a long time to gooooo....

 

 

 

I'm starting to see the light. KR is crazy like a fox. The thing that's easy to forget is how far east Auckland is -- like 170 or something. Looks like there are a couple of weather systems coming at them. In about 12-18 hours, they should be able to bear away and get moving in a breeze which will be exclusively theirs for a while. To establish leverage over the fleet though, they kind of have to wait until the fleet gets some breeze and bears away toward the south. Puma can keep going east for a few hours, then bear away themselves. But what's the real advantage to doing so? ... at that point everyone should be in basically identical trade breezes. Puma will have a slightly better angle, but that's a lot of distance to make up. Definitely iffy, but potentially brilliant.

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Yes sire....Puma is in 20 knots of Northerlies. Hit the timer -- Operation "Fetch and Devour" has begun, next turning point 150 East.

...sure hope so...but a long time to gooooo....

...and they should start turning around 140E...IMO :rolleyes:

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...sure hope so...but a long time to gooooo....

 

Puma set for rendez-vous with Fleet @ 146 E, 21.5 N by Monday noon ET time.

 

Or what's left of the Fleet at that time -- wonder whether anyone will dare to break South early. Where's Expedition -- we need 'em.

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Believe that was Ericsson 3 in the last race from Qingdao to Brazil. Went through the gate for points scoring and then did an almost u-turn to get above a system.

 

and they subsequently won that leg, right?

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Believe that was Ericsson 3 in the last race from Qingdao to Brazil. Went through the gate for points scoring and then did an almost u-turn to get above a system.

 

and they subsequently won that leg, right?

 

Yes. And I guess it played a role in the fact that Magdal became Navigator on Sanya.

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I just don't know what to think about Puma's move. Risky is the first word that comes to mind.

 

This is the course to keep things in perspective

post-17564-035431200 1330124862_thumb.png

 

GFS now (0000 25022012)

post-17564-003553900 1330124838_thumb.jpg

 

GFS 24 hr (0000 26022012)

post-17564-015423000 1330124851_thumb.jpg

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Puma is at present 282 miles behind Camper and Camper is directly between Puma and Auckland. What kind of mileage are you going to have to do to go round the outside and into the lead? It would surely have to be about 600 additional miles? I hope Puma can make the in port race in Auckland. It seems like this leg is going to be a long one for all the boats.

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There's about 200nm west / east separation between Puma and Camper / Groupama, and if the VOR tracker is somewhat accurate, Puma should be making big gains on the leaders in the next 18 hours; cause they are sailing into a bit of a hole. Telefonica went North in anticipation of shit wind ahead, so it seems. So let's say Cape is right, then that doesn't bode well for Camper / Groupama. So Puma closes in, and rolls over them. And we'll deal with the North / South separation later on....?

 

If you lay the line for current position of Camper / Groupama to the Westcoast of Fiji, and then down to Auckland due South...that's about 8700 km (sorry that site www afstandmeten nl doesn't do nm). Do the same from Puma's current spot, to same place in front of Fiji, that's about 9000km. Add more Easterly to the track and that's another 1000 miles or so.

 

This is long from settled!

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I can imagine the sense of relief on Puma when that last update came in and they saw that the rest of the fleet is heading North again. Their move may be a good or a bad call, but to have the rest of the fleet heading your way - or at least towards your way - well... their arseholes may have just unpuckered a tiny bit. Pretty nerve racking taking a flier like that against a fleet like this - even if it was the 'cards they were dealt' as they passed Taiwan.

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Before Puma fans run out and chop themselves, the weather routing shows less than an hours difference to NZ between Camper and Puma (36 minutes actually).

 

The main pack have been able to keep sailing the making board east for a number of days - but the breeze is going to die out in front of them now and they're going to have to head north (they gybed north in the last sched) to join Puma. The could try to punch through very light breeze to the Easterlies - but I don't reckon any of them would want to risk that while the whole fleet is following the same strategy.

 

post-8605-073439800 1330148802_thumb.jpg

 

The pink route is Puma currently. The green route is recommended for Camper - I've put a 'no sail' zone in front of them to tell the routing not to sail into the lighter breeze. The red route then suggests to go north and close up with Puma.

 

In two days time the tracker won't resemble this one bit but it does offer some perspective on what the navigators are looking at.

 

Puma has done the northing and can get much further east now with good numbers. That will set them up for small gains the whole 4000nm down the Pacific. What they've done is still a very speculative and high-risk move but the logic is quite clear and if they have a bit of luck it could turn out to be a winner. I wouldn't characterise it as insane - as some have here.

 

Looking at the tracker and the weather - one thing for sure is it would be very hard work for the crews out there with very variable winds and heaps of sail changes. They have all been going through the gears constantly, working hard to try to make gains and stem losses. The psychology of sailing the wrong way would be getting to them too.

 

The forecast for 3-4 days time has a period of very fresh (maybe 30-40kts) ENE breeze which will be demanding sailing. The relative differences in boat speed will probably not be as important as the boat handling and seamanship shown by the crews. Broken gear and sails will cause very big losses.

 

If I were on Groupama or Camper I'd be foccussing on each other and Telefonica. It has no real bearing on the overall race if Puma ends up leading. Where there's everything to play for in the main group. Telefonica is 80-100 miles behind Camper so I'd say they'd be wanting to prevent that gap getting wider and somehow stay in touch.

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Great summation. Camper starting to look vunerable again, bow up and slow in comparison to Groupama..........................

 

 

 

Before Puma fans run out and chop themselves, the weather routing shows less than an hours difference to NZ between Camper and Puma (36 minutes actually).

 

The main pack have been able to keep sailing the making board east for a number of days - but the breeze is going to die out in front of them now and they're going to have to head north (they gybed north in the last sched) to join Puma. The could try to punch through very light breeze to the Easterlies - but I don't reckon any of them would want to risk that while the whole fleet is following the same strategy.

 

post-8605-073439800 1330148802_thumb.jpg

 

The pink route is Puma currently. The green route is recommended for Camper - I've put a 'no sail' zone in front of them to tell the routing not to sail into the lighter breeze. The red route then suggests to go north and close up with Puma.

 

In two days time the tracker won't resemble this one bit but it does offer some perspective on what the navigators are looking at.

 

Puma has done the northing and can get much further east now with good numbers. That will set them up for small gains the whole 4000nm down the Pacific. What they've done is still a very speculative and high-risk move but the logic is quite clear and if they have a bit of luck it could turn out to be a winner. I wouldn't characterise it as insane - as some have here.

 

Looking at the tracker and the weather - one thing for sure is it would be very hard work for the crews out there with very variable winds and heaps of sail changes. They have all been going through the gears constantly, working hard to try to make gains and stem losses. The psychology of sailing the wrong way would be getting to them too.

 

The forecast for 3-4 days time has a period of very fresh (maybe 30-40kts) ENE breeze which will be demanding sailing. The relative differences in boat speed will probably not be as important as the boat handling and seamanship shown by the crews. Broken gear and sails will cause very big losses.

 

If I were on Groupama or Camper I'd be foccussing on each other and Telefonica. It has no real bearing on the overall race if Puma ends up leading. Where there's everything to play for in the main group. Telefonica is 80-100 miles behind Camper so I'd say they'd be wanting to prevent that gap getting wider and somehow stay in touch.

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Errrr when are the fleet going to head south? It would have been great if Telefonica had kept to there original move before tacking back to the fleet.

 

I agree - I think Tele may have had a tough couple of days... hindsight.

They really had to follow Camper and to a lesser extent Groupama though.

 

I don't see the window south opening fro around 3 days - can that be right?

 

The Groupama website stories are always remarkably candid:

http://www.cammas-groupama.com/en/news/VORnews/actu_equipe_353.jsp

(last two paragraphs)

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onimod

Campa 088

Groupama 069

Puma 093

 

Campa going up to Puma to cover and Puma coming down at speed . The group should go south ,yes they will slow down with the weather so will Puma . They are going the wrong way . I reckon they are trying to get east to cover the layline .Weather systems move ,they have not apart from Puma .Very Interesting leg.

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...got to admit...it's a very difficult part of the world to predict the weather...so it's up to the crews with ...well,the thing to do it...;)...balls...guts whatever ??

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Errrr when are the fleet going to head south? It would have been great if Telefonica had kept to there original move before tacking back to the fleet.

In his last telephone interview, Cape claimed yesterday he still thought that the southern route TELE started and later aborted was a winning idea. Anyway, if they had taken forward its plan had influenced the whole flet decisions, probably.

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Puma is at present 282 miles behind Camper and Camper is directly between Puma and Auckland. What kind of mileage are you going to have to do to go round the outside and into the lead? It would surely have to be about 600 additional miles? I hope Puma can make the in port race in Auckland. It seems like this leg is going to be a long one for all the boats.

 

Since this post yesterday they've made up 114 miles. I was skeptical - but now with 3 boats chasing Puma north, I'm starting to believe.

 

Wow.

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The Puma freight train is not showing any slowing down...been consistently over 19kts!! 160nm behind in their own private weather, with a hole developing 24-36 hours out and below the fleet should play right into Puma's plans. Telefonica looks like the first to veer off south - this is easily the most interesting leg so far.

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Not worth much, but if we assume Groupama continues on current course and maintains its "average speed" on the VOR site (whatever that is), and Puma does the same, then Groupama will cross the wake of Puma four hours after Puma sailed through that zone. In another 11 hours or so Puma should hit that spot, with Cammas then going through it 4 hours later. Just shows the extent of Puma's come back I'd say.

 

But the winds will go light in the next 12 hours -- hope they can stay ahead. Bigger winds ahead for the entire fleet. Wonder whether Telefonica is dipping South and decided to beat all the way to Fiji???

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This is all very open! G4 and AD are going north with Puma as Camper and Tele are staying south. Who is going to be right? I hope North is going to pay.

 

I'm also a bit disappointed to see that G4 isn't covering the two overall leaders Tele and Camper, knowing they have good performance downwind. Have they forgotten it's a points race?

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^

 

If the forecast wind on the tracker is to be believed then in 12-18 hours time, south will be the place to be.

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Finally Cape convinced Iker to do a check. The next twelve hours very critical ... What a leg

 

Edit: East, West or middle Fiji "à la Bowe" ?

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It is interesting. The GFS is forecasting the dead zone to fill slowly form the west, so the western boats will be able to make southing earlier. Of course, Puma will have a better angle once they get into the trades.

 

The main reason this has Camper and Tele losing ground is due to pressure differences in the GFS over the next 24 hours that may or may not be there.

 

That said, while is is fashionable to not like the GFS, it is actually a very good model.

 

GPMA 13d 05h 12m -6h 01m

ADOR 13d 06h 02m -5h 11m

PUMA 13d 08h 56m -2h 17m

CAMP 13d 11h 14m

SNYA 13d 12h 32m 1h 18m

TELE 13d 17h 41m 6h 27m

post-12648-061046400 1330199734_thumb.jpg

post-12648-060798800 1330199748_thumb.jpg

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^^^ Thanks!

 

FWIW, back in the dark ages of computer wx models NGP seemed closer to reality more often than GFS in the equatorial and SW Pacific. These things are always getting updated so I don't know how things stand now but if the Navy has gotten around to producing enough days to run your route it might be fun to see how different it looks using NGP.

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Very interesting to watch, and even if Puma will not win the leg, their current positioning looks much better than I would have imagined. I was definitely wrong in my judgement. I think Addis has saved his head and reputation. Extremely interesting to watch.

 

Edit:

But watching the VOR tracker I cannot but think that if any boat would have decided to go SE tightly around the Philippines waypoint, they would have suffered light winds first, and then nothing but upwind, but they would have been way closer to Auckland, and already on the right side of the high pressure ridge. All boats will still have to deal with light winds wherever they are.

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I remember the days when Mr Read was sailing and winning in J24's. He was far ahead of most of the fleet putting more time on the water to maximise crew efficiency in sail and boat handling; his tacking was just the best and he sailed the J24 flattest in the fleet. It was the proverbial 'no stone unturned to win' philosophy and no need to bang corners.

 

So how come he is feeling that he has to bang corners so hard when he is at the top of the pro sailing game. Last leg he turned right, way away from the fleet, and in the end only lost say 30 or 40 miles, he was fortunate.

 

This time he decided to turn left. It is a high risk game. Surely better to just go steady on the seconds, thirds and fourths that his boat is capable of rather than the hero to zero tactics he is at now.

 

It looks like he might even make this one pay, though I doubt it, the next 48 hours will tell, but it is not the 'percentage sailing' one would expect of a world champion.

 

Maybe he is just trying to make up for the first leg disaster and put his sponsors name in a high risk position, grabbing the headlines. "Puma ready to pounce". "Berg brings Puma to a halt"

 

Well at least he is making this travesty of a round the world race interesting, you have to give him that!

 

P.S On the latest sked I quite fancy the southern position of Telefonica. Looking at the forecasts on the VOR tracker they might get a nice ride on the rhumb line in the next 60 hours

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Well at least he is making this travesty of a round the world race interesting, you have to give him that!

 

I've seen this sentiment quite a bit. Granted I think the stealth zone thing was a bit ridonculous, and I didn't like the postponement of the L4 start - so I've bitched and moaned a bit too - but where exactly do you get this race being a "travesty"? What would a "non-travesty" round the world race look like to you?

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Well at least he is making this travesty of a round the world race interesting, you have to give him that!

 

I've seen this sentiment quite a bit. Granted I think the stealth zone thing was a bit ridonculous, and I didn't like the postponement of the L4 start - so I've bitched and moaned a bit too - but where exactly do you get this race being a "travesty"? What would a "non-travesty" round the world race look like to you?

 

I guess I am a bit of a purist, so sort of deep into the south, roaring 40's and screaming 50's, past the great capes and in a relatively short time frame. And yes, the boat that wins should have sailed all the way around the world.

 

Though I have to admit the tactics in this leg are the most complex and fascinating.

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Well at least he is making this travesty of a round the world race interesting, you have to give him that!

 

I've seen this sentiment quite a bit. Granted I think the stealth zone thing was a bit ridonculous, and I didn't like the postponement of the L4 start - so I've bitched and moaned a bit too - but where exactly do you get this race being a "travesty"? What would a "non-travesty" round the world race look like to you?

 

I guess I am a bit of a purist, so sort of deep into the south, roaring 40's and screaming 50's, past the great capes snd in a relatively short time frame. And the boat that wins should have sailed all the way around the world.

 

Though I have to admit the tactics in this leg are the most complex and fascinating.

 

Fair enough. That's why I like the Vendee. But I like the VOR precisely because of the mixing the off-shore and in-shore stuff. It's the full-spectrum of racing (as long as they stay off of ships).

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Camper looks under threat from Groupama, Puma, AD and even Sanya. Telefonica looks like they're diving south to miss the unfriendly windless stretch Camper is in danger of falling into.

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Very interesting to watch, and even if Puma will not win the leg, their current positioning looks much better than I would have imagined. I was definitely wrong in my judgement. I think Addis has saved his head and reputation. Extremely interesting to watch.

 

Edit:

But watching the VOR tracker I cannot but think that if any boat would have decided to go SE tightly around the Philippines waypoint, they would have suffered light winds first, and then nothing but upwind, but they would have been way closer to Auckland, and already on the right side of the high pressure ridge. All boats will still have to deal with light winds wherever they are.

 

Hi Gert --- its a mightly long beat to the East of Papua New Guinea man!

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I remember the days when Mr Read was sailing and winning in J24's. He was far ahead of most of the fleet putting more time on the water to maximise crew efficiency in sail and boat handling; his tacking was just the best and he sailed the J24 flattest in the fleet. It was the proverbial 'no stone unturned to win' philosophy and no need to bang corners.

 

Including IIRC a rule 69 suspension for illegal hull modification, which seems to have been air-brushed out of history. Admit I'm dredging the memory banks here. Anyone remember more?

 

More positively, I also sailed J24s in that period and remember watching a video of Ken Read's team sailing downwind in a breeze. The work rate on the boat was staggeringly ahead of anything I'd previously seen. Made you think.

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Very interesting to watch, and even if Puma will not win the leg, their current positioning looks much better than I would have imagined. I was definitely wrong in my judgement. I think Addis has saved his head and reputation. Extremely interesting to watch.

 

Edit:

But watching the VOR tracker I cannot but think that if any boat would have decided to go SE tightly around the Philippines waypoint, they would have suffered light winds first, and then nothing but upwind, but they would have been way closer to Auckland, and already on the right side of the high pressure ridge. All boats will still have to deal with light winds wherever they are.

 

Hi Gert --- its a mightly long beat to the East of Papua New Guinea man!

 

Just looking at the VOR tracker weather forecasts, which I believe are based on GFS, I wonder if a better route would have been to sit at the top of the Philippines for 2-3 days in drifting conditions and then head south south east when the breeze filled in. Would have been very painful waiting. I wonder if that scenario showed up in any of the earlier forecasts. Certainly looks as if they could have been going very nicely SE on the breeze - maybe 50deg twa - instead of floating around near Japan heading halfway to America and then waiting for some nice 100deg twa conditions to get South in. Be interesting to know if that weather pattern was present in the forecasts that sent them NE, or if it is something that has developed in the last day or so.

 

Kudos to Puma too - high risk strategy that would have scared the fruck out of me - they don't look great against Groupama (who came to join them), but they do look great against T4, who they were next to at Taiwan.

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Puma..... do look great against T4, who they were next to at Taiwan.

 

There's a little low building to the SE with light airs in the middle and I think the best way around it is S then E. That, I think, is why we are seeing Camper and Telefonica positioning themselves S. Not certain Puma is going to be looking so great in 24 hours. Interesting and complex, for sure.

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Puma..... do look great against T4, who they were next to at Taiwan.

 

There's a little low building to the SE with light airs in the middle and I think the best way around it is S then E. That, I think, is why we are seeing Camper and Telefonica positioning themselves S. Not certain Puma is going to be looking so great in 24 hours. Interesting and complex, for sure.

 

+1

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I remember the days when Mr Read was sailing and winning in J24's. He was far ahead of most of the fleet putting more time on the water to maximise crew efficiency in sail and boat handling; his tacking was just the best and he sailed the J24 flattest in the fleet. It was the proverbial 'no stone unturned to win' philosophy and no need to bang corners.

 

Including IIRC a rule 69 suspension for illegal hull modification, which seems to have been air-brushed out of history. Admit I'm dredging the memory banks here. Anyone remember more?

 

 

You're thinking E22 keel root, something that had been done to hulls before he even got into the class. He certainly was not rule 69'd, and most certainly was not suspended in any way.

 

Kenny dominated that worlds by having good speed, sailing really smart, and having excellent crew work. Just like he did in the J24.

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I remember the days when Mr Read was sailing and winning in J24's. He was far ahead of most of the fleet putting more time on the water to maximise crew efficiency in sail and boat handling; his tacking was just the best and he sailed the J24 flattest in the fleet. It was the proverbial 'no stone unturned to win' philosophy and no need to bang corners.

 

Including IIRC a rule 69 suspension for illegal hull modification, which seems to have been air-brushed out of history. Admit I'm dredging the memory banks here. Anyone remember more?

 

More positively, I also sailed J24s in that period and remember watching a video of Ken Read's team sailing downwind in a breeze. The work rate on the boat was staggeringly ahead of anything I'd previously seen. Made you think.

 

I think he is not the only top pro who has sailed close to the wind in 'optimising' one design hulls and appendages over the years (I have sailed with them!) Often matching the hull/keel/rudder templates are just pushed too far. Problem I guess, apart from the desire to win, is that too many one-designs are not built to exacting standards, leaving room for the pros to get stuck in and optimise. And of course often the rules are not that precise on what you can and can't do. So don't blame Kenny on this one.

 

As for the 'not the around the world race', I have to admit that the tactical options presented in this leg are absolutely rivetting. I now just wish that one boat had headed south on the rhumb line and tried to pushed through the doldrums.

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You're thinking E22 keel root, something that had been done to hulls before he even got into the class.

 

No I wasn't. I'm thinking of replacement of J24 deck with a lighter core, somewhere around the front hatch, following damage he said had been done by repeated dropping of the pole in the area. It was a long time ago and I'll freely admit my memory is hazy on the details. I'm not wishing to shit-stir, just curious really whether anybody can remember better than I can.

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You're thinking E22 keel root, something that had been done to hulls before he even got into the class.

 

No I wasn't. I'm thinking of replacement of J24 deck with a lighter core, somewhere around the front hatch, following damage he said had been done by repeated dropping of the pole in the area. It was a long time ago and I'll freely admit my memory is hazy on the details. I'm not wishing to shit-stir, just curious really whether anybody can remember better than I can.

 

Yes, he rebuilt a hatch himself - heavier and stronger. The J's didn't like that it wasn't OEM and asked him to replace it.

 

Again, no R69 or suspension.

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Wow. Latest sked shows Puma running at 18+ knots and starting to climb up the board. Seriously impressive.

 

Sure does...nice !! This race is far from over...and it's open for everybody(anybody) to win it !!

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Wow. Latest sked shows Puma running at 18+ knots and starting to climb up the board. Seriously impressive.

 

Sure does...nice !! This race is far from over...and it's open for everybody(anybody) to win it !!

 

+1. And I hereby offer my apologies to Addis for doubting him and suggesting that he be eaten by his crewmates.

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If they pull this off, IMHO there should be a new prize but up for the Volvo, the "Goldenballs" award, for whichever crew displays the most ballsy tactics.

 

 

Hard to see it getting more extreme than this!

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Its not a Monster, Its a Giant Leaping Cat! Built the Puma crew a statue already, this is ace. I mean, you have to admit, this was a freakin' gutsy move. They should do better than Groupama in the next 12 hrs as they stay in the bigger winds. I'd say they'll keep trucking through 155 East at minimum, before turning the bow down, reaching down through the trades, showing up on the lower part of New Caledonia to pick up a Northerly all they way to Auckland. This is a done deal.

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Its not a Monster, Its a Giant Leaping Cat! Built the Puma crew a statue already, this is ace. I mean, you have to admit, this was a freakin' gutsy move. They should do better than Groupama in the next 12 hrs as they stay in the bigger winds. I'd say they'll keep trucking through 155 East at minimum, before turning the bow down, reaching down through the trades, showing up on the lower part of New Caledonia to pick up a Northerly all they way to Auckland. This is a done deal.

With over 4000 miles to go, thats your prediction??

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