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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

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punter

VOR Leg 4

1,281 posts in this topic

latest sched....16:00 UTC what's up with ADOR? Their boat speed numbers are way off. Average speed 15.9 knots, instant speed 12 knots....all while the reported wind speed is 17.6 and sailing at same angles....similar to all in the fleet. Another breakage??

 

It's concerning. . . they've been consistently fastest for about 36 hours.

 

looks like everybody is experiancing the same fluky condition as groupama... described on their web page

There's been a major change in the past hour since we're only making ten knots of boat speed! It's impossible to anticipate such phenomena: some of the clouds which are crossing our path contain strong squalls of over thirty knots and others less than ten knots. In any case, right now you just have to focus on going straight: we can't avoid them and there is likely to be some concertinaing of the boats according to the cloud mass.

"

 

 

 

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Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

 

Because they have a staggeringly nice boat and should have every single chance of success. The skip doesn't seem like a very good guy though. Doesn't seem like he is good to the crew, or a good leader, compared to bone-true guys like KR. And they always seem to be looking for convenient excuses. I'm sure we've all raced against a lot of folks like that.

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Looks to me like some tricky bits coming up if the GFS is right. GFS shows a big hole in the wind in the lee of Espiritu Santo about the time G4 should get there. And then it all gets complicated. My guess is that just E of Vanuatu. Not sure how the model will hold up after that as the effect of the low far to the South and it's trof on the strong H's is showing a pretty weak gradient. There should be a bit of a front with a change at some point but right now the model is showing a complex low blocked by a strong ridge over the South Island as the fleet approaches so they may have to deal with the cul / stationary front right along their path. Lucky them...

post-41116-094429300 1330633403_thumb.png

post-41116-068596000 1330634760_thumb.png

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Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

 

Because they have a staggeringly nice boat and should have every single chance of success. The skip doesn't seem like a very good guy though. Doesn't seem like he is good to the crew, or a good leader, compared to bone-true guys like KR. And they always seem to be looking for convenient excuses. I'm sure we've all raced against a lot of folks like that.

 

From a guy that races a J24.

How many times have you met Chris or sailed with him?

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Looks like the whole fleet except G4 have bore away at the same time blink.gif

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Looks like the whole fleet except G4 have bore away at the same time blink.gif

 

Where do you look at to see this?

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Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

 

Because they have a staggeringly nice boat and should have every single chance of success. The skip doesn't seem like a very good guy though. Doesn't seem like he is good to the crew, or a good leader, compared to bone-true guys like KR. And they always seem to be looking for convenient excuses. I'm sure we've all raced against a lot of folks like that.

 

You're obviously trolling or simply have no idea.

Either way, let us know how many times you've sailed with Nico or STFU.

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Angle and speed looking better for camper with the shift, but it's a lot of miles to make up!

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

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So the figures for heading are wrong?

 

I think the "dashboard" is still a work in progress. GPS tracks may be the more reliable. No idea why they went right. Maybe a new wx sked shows the West as the better route? Whatever, but my guess is that the turn is real.

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Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

+1

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Looks like we can cross Vanuatu off the 'fly by' list.

The big storm off NZ looks like it might provide a doldrums free run to the finish through the Solomon Islands.

It's very hard to read - it seems the tracker's weather is not very stable at all and is changing from sched to sched.

Do the teams have something more stable?

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Quick update from the GFS based routing

 

Name , Time , Delta

GPMA , 7d 17h 37m

PUMA , 7d 20h 46m , 3h 09m

ADOR , 8d 07h 16m , 13h 38m

CAMP , 8d 16h 15m , 22h 37m

TELE , 8d 18h 42m , 1d 01h

SNYA , 8d 20h 02m , 1d 02h

 

Obviously the difference between this and the VOR ranking reflects the leverage Camper and ADOR have over Tele. For the same reason, GPMA, PUMA and ADOR are further ahead of Camper than the VOR ranking suggests.

 

It is a bit of a drag race to the Solomons, where things might get a little tricky as they transition to the ESE trades.

 

Anything could happen after then ...

post-12648-004090600 1330652706_thumb.png

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Thanks Expedition.

 

Question: Why did most of the fleet turn right? Looking at both GFS and NGP some flavor of E of the Solomons and W of Vanuatu looks best... So why head SSW all the sudden?

post-41116-031281400 1330653520_thumb.png

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Just BTW, that's an ugly looking L NGP has forming over Fiji. Don't think it will be a factor in the race, and these thing do pop in and out of the models but for the locals might be worth keeping an eye on.

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Thanks Expedition.

 

Question: Why did most of the fleet turn right? Looking at both GFS and NGP some flavor of E of the Solomons and W of Vanuatu looks best... So why head SSW all the sudden?

 

 

I think percentage-wise, this is the best breeze so they may as well use it. Also, they only just want to clear the Solomons - having some apparent if the breeze drops below 10kt will be useful ...

 

They aren't in a position to worry too much about what happens south of New Caledonia just yet as anything could happen.

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

Looks like "We are your new favourite team" is going pretty well for them.

 

HW

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

More bullshit. From personal experience with members of both teams, they are having a great time. Results (so far) might not have been what they expected or were hoping for, so they clearly are feeling some pressure. But I am pretty sure none of the guys would want to be anywhere else.

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Results (so far) might not have been what they expected or were hoping for, so they clearly are feeling some pressure.

 

 

Camper will be ok into Auckland.

 

All other competitors are required to heave-too behind Rangitoto Island for a full inspection by NZ customs.

We cannot have those Frenchmen sneaking merlot or rose into the land of Oyster Bay sauvignon blanc.

 

The length of the delay depends on the thoroughness of the search.

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Thanks Expedition.

 

Question: Why did most of the fleet turn right? Looking at both GFS and NGP some flavor of E of the Solomons and W of Vanuatu looks best... So why head SSW all the sudden?

 

Yes Sanya and Camper on the tracker are heading SSW, yet their headings show them steering 146deg and 158deg and they sure don't look like they're sailing higher than Groupama on 160deg. Then again it may be my pacemaker interfering....

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Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

 

Because they have a staggeringly nice boat and should have every single chance of success. The skip doesn't seem like a very good guy though. Doesn't seem like he is good to the crew, or a good leader, compared to bone-true guys like KR. And they always seem to be looking for convenient excuses. I'm sure we've all raced against a lot of folks like that.

 

 

Agree, to some extent at least. Something is off with Camper personnel-wise and I don't know enough about it to know what. They just don't seem as fired up, and there's a grimness to it. And i too have noticed a couple of excuses.

 

Separately, does anyone happen to know the relative budgets of the boats? I heard (no idea as to reliability of this assertion) that Puma and Camper were far and away the costliest ones in this race.

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By the way, why are several of the boats turning to starboard (... i.e., falling off significantly)? I don't understand what is going on. All the boats except Groupama are heading straight for the islands ... why?

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Is there a bit of gamesmanship going on?

Were some boats faking a bear away at immediately before the sched reporting?

was it just a tracking glitch?

 

The tracker now shows that only ADOR really changed direction at the 1AM UTC sched (although the easterly boats do seem to have turned between 1AM and 4AM UTC).

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Something is off with Camper personnel-wise and I don't know enough about it to know what. They just don't seem as fired up, and there's a grimness to it. And i too have noticed a couple of excuses.

 

I'd be pretty grim too knowing what was/is expected of this team and realising your sled just isn't fast enough.

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Something is off with Camper personnel-wise and I don't know enough about it to know what. They just don't seem as fired up, and there's a grimness to it. And i too have noticed a couple of excuses.

 

I'd be pretty grim too knowing what was/is expected of this team and realising your sled just isn't fast enough.

 

 

I don't know, their boat seems plenty fast -- certainly they've had bursts of awesome speed, at least on some points of sail. I mean, clearly it's a whole lot faster than Sanya, but they aren't exactly waxing those guys. Seems a little odd to this casual observer. Don't know what else to say.

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Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

Me too...I like their attitude as a team....and Ken has been been pretty good about being upbeat,even after there toughest moment...which goes a long way with any crew.

 

Nice to see them reel some miles in today.

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Something is off with Camper personnel-wise and I don't know enough about it to know what. They just don't seem as fired up, and there's a grimness to it. And i too have noticed a couple of excuses.

 

I'd be pretty grim too knowing what was/is expected of this team and realising your sled just isn't fast enough.

 

 

I don't know, their boat seems plenty fast -- certainly they've had bursts of awesome speed, at least on some points of sail. I mean, clearly it's a whole lot faster than Sanya, but they aren't exactly waxing those guys. Seems a little odd to this casual observer. Don't know what else to say.

 

Lets just say it's the second fastest ride in the fleet at the mo, the fastest being Tele...

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The rich get richer.

20 free miles to the east at higher speed for Groupama.

Flawless.

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Would be nice if the mileage was put up every 12 or 24 hours on the site.

 

You can find the 24 hour milage under "Data Tables".

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Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

 

Because they have a staggeringly nice boat and should have every single chance of success. The skip doesn't seem like a very good guy though. Doesn't seem like he is good to the crew, or a good leader, compared to bone-true guys like KR. And they always seem to be looking for convenient excuses. I'm sure we've all raced against a lot of folks like that.

 

 

 

Agree, to some extent at least. Something is off with Camper personnel-wise and I don't know enough about it to know what. They just don't seem as fired up, and there's a grimness to it. And i too have noticed a couple of excuses.

 

Separately, does anyone happen to know the relative budgets of the boats? I heard (no idea as to reliability of this assertion) that Puma and Camper were far and away the costliest ones in this race.

 

All this is based on the PR approach of each team, not what is actually going on behind closed doors. I have known Nico for a good few years and think he was a very smart choice. Nice bloke and one of the best behind the wheel of a Volvo 70. Very well respected by all in the know.

 

Puma and Camper are two of the teams with the lowest campaign costs (excluding Sanya). Groupama is the highest by far. But I am talking about campaign costs, not advertising costs. That I don't know anything about.

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Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

 

Because they have a staggeringly nice boat and should have every single chance of success. The skip doesn't seem like a very good guy though. Doesn't seem like he is good to the crew, or a good leader, compared to bone-true guys like KR. And they always seem to be looking for convenient excuses. I'm sure we've all raced against a lot of folks like that.

 

 

 

Agree, to some extent at least. Something is off with Camper personnel-wise and I don't know enough about it to know what. They just don't seem as fired up, and there's a grimness to it. And i too have noticed a couple of excuses.

 

 

 

Separately, does anyone happen to know the relative budgets of the boats? I heard (no idea as to reliability of this assertion) that Puma and Camper were far and away the costliest ones in this race.

 

All this is based on the PR approach of each team, not what is actually going on behind closed doors. I have known Nico for a good few years and think he was a very smart choice. Nice bloke and one of the best behind the wheel of a Volvo 70. Very well respected by all in the know.

 

Puma and Camper are two of the teams with the lowest campaign costs (excluding Sanya). Groupama is the highest by far. But I am talking about campaign costs, not advertising costs. That I don't know anything about.

 

There is no doubt Camper have some minor issues and one could be speed in a given condition/range. It's also fair to say they are not navigating as well as TF, but neither are the rest. Chris is a great sailor, just not the best choice as a leader or PR person and I mean that with all respect. Having said that it's perhaps the high expectations of TNZ that have put enormous pressure on Chris. I don't think Ken Read has led his team that well either and in reality Puma should be feeling the pressure far more than Camper right now. It seems to me that this leg has seen Puma find some legs along with Abu Dhabi who made some mods. Camper seem to have speed every now and then but not over the widest range. In reality perhaps we'll never know, to what extent TNZ dictated the design as opposed to Botin & Carkeek. One things for sure, a Juan K design will win the Volvo..!

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Until we see these boats flying downwind in the next leg, we will not know who has made the right design choice IMHO. The race still has plenty of pure downwind legs to go....or not???

post-15388-024186600 1330695901_thumb.jpg

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Huh. Just looked at the tracker. Everyone except Puma and Groupama are headed straight into the Solomon Islands. Looks (from the data table, not the tracker graphics, which don't agree with it) like the wind has veered so much that the boats are almost close-hauled. That must really, really suck. I'm guessing that what with 1000+ islands, the Solomons are no place to try and sail through. Do you think they will bite the bullet and tack, or try to thread their way through?

 

This is one time when I'm sure Puma wishes they had gone even farther east. I was a little surprised that they cracked off as early as they did, since KR had said that the move would be a failure if they fell back into the fleet. Well, they more or less did. I mean, it's no great surprise that the southern trades are SE'ly; they've been that way for millions of years...

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One things for sure, a Juan K design will win the Volvo..!

Too early to draw that conclusion I think. Still plenty of race to go, and if nothing else, ETNZ have always proven themselves consistent and one of the best at optimising and improving performance throughout a series.

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

More bullshit. From personal experience with members of both teams, they are having a great time. Results (so far) might not have been what they expected or were hoping for, so they clearly are feeling some pressure. But I am pretty sure none of the guys would want to be anywhere else.

 

Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

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Here comes Telefonica.I like.Even the name if you split it and jiggle it, Foncia. Abu for me is the biggest disapointment offshore.Bits breaking Lash it and thrash it.

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

More bullshit. From personal experience with members of both teams, they are having a great time. Results (so far) might not have been what they expected or were hoping for, so they clearly are feeling some pressure. But I am pretty sure none of the guys would want to be anywhere else.

 

Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

 

Oh great, now I have to go return my sporty red "Bag of Dog Shit".

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So is Telefonica going to go west of Santa Isabel? It sure looks like it. Not a bad idea I guess, but isn't there a huge windshadow to the lee of any island that size? I mean that island is 3700 feet tall!!!

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how about, as they approach the islands, with the wind dropping they turn left a bit to keep the breeze on..?

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

More bullshit. From personal experience with members of both teams, they are having a great time. Results (so far) might not have been what they expected or were hoping for, so they clearly are feeling some pressure. But I am pretty sure none of the guys would want to be anywhere else.

 

Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

 

 

+1

 

The way the Puma stuff is done, it's like, these are totally guys I'd want to roll with! They are funny, serious, self-effacing, competitive ... all sorts of cool things rolled into one. Their PR is masterful in capturing this. Then you look at Camper and say, hmmm these guys are not terribly fun. Both Puma and Camper are, after all, lifestyle companies. As such it's key to project that. To one of the earlier posters, it's quite right that it really doesn't matter much whether they win or not. I went to a lecture last year given by KR and he seemed as focused on being a spokesman for his sponsor, as any NASCAR driver out there. He could not have been more clear: "Our mission is not to win the race. Our mission is to help Puma sell stuff." Apparently Puma's sales went through the roof in the last VOR, and they're hoping for a repeat.

 

So be cool, Camper guys! Have fun with it! Help your sponsor sell stuff!!

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how about, as they approach the islands, with the wind dropping they turn left a bit to keep the breeze on..?

 

As soon as they turn left they are "acknowledging" being behind and limit their chances of coming back. While they are sailing on a different line they can hope for some westerlies between New Caledonia and New Zealand or a lull affecting Groupama and Puma.

 

I just hope that Groupama will be a bit luckier with doldrums crossing than before.

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I think the problem with the race was not really having a team to support and want to win.

 

After "that" flyer I do seem to find myself thinking that I would love to see Puma win this leg, also glad to see the french doing it in style and enjoying it.

 

Camper and ADOR, especially camper seem to make it a bit miserable as though they were forced to enter the VOR and hate every second of it. Not a great way to garner support.

 

Puma did well at being upbeat when things weren't going well and now they seem to be doing better I really want them to do well. I think they have won me over as a fan.

 

More bullshit. From personal experience with members of both teams, they are having a great time. Results (so far) might not have been what they expected or were hoping for, so they clearly are feeling some pressure. But I am pretty sure none of the guys would want to be anywhere else.

 

Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

 

 

+1

 

The way the Puma stuff is done, it's like, these are totally guys I'd want to roll with! They are funny, serious, self-effacing, competitive ... all sorts of cool things rolled into one. Their PR is masterful in capturing this. Then you look at Camper and say, hmmm these guys are not terribly fun. Both Puma and Camper are, after all, lifestyle companies. As such it's key to project that. To one of the earlier posters, it's quite right that it really doesn't matter much whether they win or not. I went to a lecture last year given by KR and he seemed as focused on being a spokesman for his sponsor, as any NASCAR driver out there. He could not have been more clear: "Our mission is not to win the race. Our mission is to help Puma sell stuff." Apparently Puma's sales went through the roof in the last VOR, and they're hoping for a repeat.

 

So be cool, Camper guys! Have fun with it! Help your sponsor sell stuff!!

 

So will Abu be selling bucket and spades as well as turbans.

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From looking at the VOR tracker and wind forecasts it looks like Tele and the westerly boats will have a bit more breeze all the way up to the Solomans. I couldn't imagine threading through there with 20 knts of breeze, but seems doable in 6-8? If they did thread through it seems they'd have a chance of making ground on the eastern boats and then hope for a favorable wind direction once through the doldrums. It's gonna be an interesting couple of days! My favorite leg by far. GO PUMA!!

 

Disclaimer: I have no fucking clue what I'm talking about. Just a casual observation....

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Huh. Just looked at the tracker. Everyone except Puma and Groupama are headed straight into the Solomon Islands. Looks (from the data table, not the tracker graphics, which don't agree with it) like the wind has veered so much that the boats are almost close-hauled. That must really, really suck. I'm guessing that what with 1000+ islands, the Solomons are no place to try and sail through. Do you think they will bite the bullet and tack, or try to thread their way through?

 

This is one time when I'm sure Puma wishes they had gone even farther east. I was a little surprised that they cracked off as early as they did, since KR had said that the move would be a failure if they fell back into the fleet. Well, they more or less did. I mean, it's no great surprise that the southern trades are SE'ly; they've been that way for millions of years...

 

I know absolutely zero about reefs, depths and random rocks and such around the Salomons, but the amount that these boats draw, and the consequences of breaking something major, that last thing I'd want to do is run aground doing 20 knots. Though (from reading posts above) breeze might back off a bit to make it feasible?

 

Be very interesting to see the split.

 

HW

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Huh. Just looked at the tracker. Everyone except Puma and Groupama are headed straight into the Solomon Islands. Looks (from the data table, not the tracker graphics, which don't agree with it) like the wind has veered so much that the boats are almost close-hauled. That must really, really suck. I'm guessing that what with 1000+ islands, the Solomons are no place to try and sail through. Do you think they will bite the bullet and tack, or try to thread their way through?

 

This is one time when I'm sure Puma wishes they had gone even farther east. I was a little surprised that they cracked off as early as they did, since KR had said that the move would be a failure if they fell back into the fleet. Well, they more or less did. I mean, it's no great surprise that the southern trades are SE'ly; they've been that way for millions of years...

 

I know absolutely zero about reefs, depths and random rocks and such around the Salomons, but the amount that these boats draw, and the consequences of breaking something major, that last thing I'd want to do is run aground doing 20 knots. Though (from reading posts above) breeze might back off a bit to make it feasible?

 

Be very interesting to see the split.

 

HW

 

 

 

Yeah those are some deep-draft boats. What, 13' or something like that?!? Unimaginably deep for anywhere I've ever sailed. BOY would it ever suck to hit a reef at 20k!!!!!

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I just emailed a friend of mine who has cruised extensively around there, and he thinks the water is plenty deep west of Santa Isabel and should be no problem. It necks down to about five miles wide. But there apparently aren't very good depth charts there and certainly there are few if any buoys. Plus, as stated above, I would think the island would absolutely kill their breeze.

 

I don't know, I'd love to see Tele try it. And they may be planning to -- they sure aren't turning left!!!! If they turn now they can probably fetch Vanuatu, but it's got to happen soon or they will find themselves needing to tack... Cape surely has something up his sleeve here; can't wait to see what.

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Sure looks like Tele is going to try it?! If you pull the slider on the weather forecast on the VOR site 60 hours / 1000 miles out, you find that West of New Caledonia one sails on a reach (when due South), whilst on the East it would be a beat all the way into Auckland. Doesn't look like to shabby winds South of the Solomons either, mostly broad reach. I think Expedition wrote a few posts back that after New Caledonia its still up for grabs...so is this Cape's ultimate "show no fear" move? Ie get to New Caledonia asap and figure it out from there? May be a method to the madness considering that Camper is supposed to be the better upwind boat?

 

 

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Holy cow, Telefonica just hit the afterburner. 8 mile gain in three hours??? It does look they are going to go for it. They are no dummies, that's for sure.

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Holy cow, Telefonica just hit the afterburner. 8 mile gain in three hours??? It does look they are going to go for it. They are no dummies, that's for sure.

 

Tele post a few minutes ago. Pardon the "bing" translation from Spanish. Traverse the Solomon Islands through the middle......oh my!

 

 

It gets interesting. We have the "Puma" 23 miles, in the last part have scratched you 11 miles. To the "Abu Dhabi" have endorsed you 12 miles more by what is 25 miles behind ours and the "Camper Team New Zealand" already it has 45 miles of disadvantage about us we are bound directly to traverse the Solomon Islands through the middle to an average higher than 19 knots while rest of the fleet sailed to little more than 13 knots. Her will become a liar Santa Cape? (Translated by Bing)

432263_378522475500841_1980807711_n.jpg

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Hello,

 

A quick update from the router (again GFS with the same polars and no currents).

 

Name , Time , Delta

GPMA , 7d 11h 49m

PUMA , 7d 20h 46m , 8h 57m

TELE , 8d 03h 22m , 15h 33m

ADOR , 8d 04h 50m , 17h 01m

CAMP , 8d 05h 06m , 17h 17m

SNYA , 8d 08h 28m , 20h 39m

 

I just modified the avoid area so they could sail through the Solomons, which is what the router suggests for the 3 western boats.

 

Tele and Sanya seem to be taking this option, but Camper's track doesn't yet indicate what they are going to do. My main question is what the wind shadow downwind of these islands is like?

 

Nick

post-12648-006799300 1330730627_thumb.png

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Hello,

 

A quick update from the router (again GFS with the same polars and no currents).

 

Name , Time , Delta

GPMA , 7d 11h 49m

PUMA , 7d 20h 46m , 8h 57m

TELE , 8d 03h 22m , 15h 33m

ADOR , 8d 04h 50m , 17h 01m

CAMP , 8d 05h 06m , 17h 17m

SNYA , 8d 08h 28m , 20h 39m

 

I just modified the avoid area so they could sail through the Solomons, which is what the router suggests for the 3 western boats.

 

Tele and Sanya seem to be taking this option, but Camper's track doesn't yet indicate what they are going to do. My main question is what the wind shadow downwind of these islands is like?

 

Nick

 

 

 

I totally wonder the same thing. They have some VERY HIGH mountains for such little islands!! Boy, anyone who tries to pull that off has big, big balls. I doubt if highly up-to-date charts even exist for that area. Call me a doubter, but I don't see how going through the islands could possibly work out. Why didn't they just steer a little higher?

 

Then again, Cape clearly saw something. The last sked shows a huge gain by Tele, using the western route.

 

All in, totally fascinating. Wow!!!

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Who would have thought we'd ever been discussing Solomon Islands' topography on this board....

 

Meet the Kologilo Passage. Best sailed from dawn till dusk....

 

Hope the guys have a copy of this book on board....http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1nri0/PacificIslands/resources/210.htm

post-43294-016787100 1330731208_thumb.png

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Who would have thought we'd ever been discussing Solomon Islands' topography on this board....

 

Meet the Kologilo Passage. Best sailed from dawn till dusk....

 

Imagine navigating that at night going 15+ knts? They'd slow the boat down a bunch I'd guess but without reliable charts it really seems like rolling the dice....

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One things for sure, a Juan K design will win the Volvo..!

Too early to draw that conclusion I think. Still plenty of race to go, and if nothing else, ETNZ have always proven themselves consistent and one of the best at optimising and improving performance throughout a series.

 

Not too early imo. Telefonica or Groupama will win this leg, both Juan K boats. Telefonica is showing the dominance that Ericsson showed last time. Groupama the big improvers and Groupama gradually closing in on Camper's 2nd place. I could be wrong but I still can't see Camper getting anywhere near TF.

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All I have is this very old NIMA chart, depths in metres.

 

Thanks for posting this. It looks like Tele and followers (including Camper) are heading for the Manning Straight, NE of Santa Isabel. Sucks for them if that's right. Not many people sail around there, apparently no one who is posting here. I came close to it (in a steel boat drawing 6'!), got the charts and local knowledge, then ran out of time. It will be fun to watch.

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Who would have thought we'd ever been discussing Solomon Islands' topography on this board....

 

Meet the Kologilo Passage. Best sailed from dawn till dusk....

 

Imagine navigating that at night going 15+ knts? They'd slow the boat down a bunch I'd guess but without reliable charts it really seems like rolling the dice....

 

Why ? The Portugese were there in the 16th century, think of the size of their balls !

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Who would have thought we'd ever been discussing Solomon Islands' topography on this board....

 

Meet the Kologilo Passage. Best sailed from dawn till dusk....

 

Hope the guys have a copy of this book on board....http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1nri0/PacificIslands/resources/210.htm

 

 

All I have is this very old NIMA chart, depths in metres.

Some brilliant information here, thanks for posting. I hope the charts they are using are ones they trust. Looking at the depths on the charts, one big coral head would be enough to cause a grounding! I certainly hope that they have no grounding issues, but the wind shadow issue will be interesting to watch.

 

It looks now as if Tele, Camper and Sanya are going through the gap, while Groupie, Puma and ADOR are going east. Tele have certainly taken off and were screaming along compared to all the others, but now Camper and Sanya are both doing over 18kts, while the eastern bunch are poottling along at 13-16!

 

A very interesting leg.

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Charts they trust ...

 

I presume their main charts will be C-Map since that is what Exp, Dfw and Adrena use.

 

That isn't the issue in a way. If you've ever been sailing in Fiji, the charts are of randomly dubious quality and I imagine the Solomons will have similar issues.

 

~ Nick

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Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

 

I hink your analogy would work better if it was something easier to sell than a bag of dog shit- a slab of beer to group of yachties maybe. Even in her bikini Sam Davies would have trouble selling a bag of dog shit.

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Charts they trust ...

 

I presume their main charts will be C-Map since that is what Exp, Dfw and Adrena use.

 

That isn't the issue in a way. If you've ever been sailing in Fiji, the charts are of randomly dubious quality and I imagine the Solomons will have similar issues.

 

~ Nick

 

Exp - I just want to say thanks for all your contributions. Your stuff is top notch. It feels like having good inside info.

 

Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

 

I hink your analogy would work better if it was something easier to sell than a bag of dog shit- a slab of beer to group of yachties maybe. Even in her bikini Sam Davies would have trouble selling a bag of dog shit.

 

Hey, Sam Davies is a goddess.

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Dude look at the Camper videos on the VOR site. Now look at the Puma ones.

 

Can you tell the difference?

 

No doubting the Camper guys are great persons. But they are seriously in need of media training -- cause the pleasure you believe they are having, ain't coming through so well on the white screen. And if I were a sponsor, with a guy like Ken Read as a skipper, I wouldn't give a damn if he underperforms, cause he sells the brand. The image of the Camper guys....would not sell a bag of dog shit.

 

I hink your analogy would work better if it was something easier to sell than a bag of dog shit- a slab of beer to group of yachties maybe. Even in her bikini Sam Davies would have trouble selling a bag of dog shit.

 

 

I readily admit that's a significant failure in my analogy.

 

 

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The Cat is dogging it now. Trying hard to soak down. Trouble ahead?

 

Yeah Puma struggling a bit and Telefonica will be ahead next sked. Telefonica seem to be consistently faster than the fleet now.

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The Cat is dogging it now. Trying hard to soak down. Trouble ahead?

 

Yeah Puma struggling a bit and Telefonica will be ahead next sked. Telefonica seem to be consistently faster than the fleet now.

 

Maybe. But they do have some hard bits in the way of their triumphant entry into Auckland.

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The Cat is dogging it now. Trying hard to soak down. Trouble ahead?

 

Yeah Puma struggling a bit and Telefonica will be ahead next sked. Telefonica seem to be consistently faster than the fleet now.

 

Maybe. But they do have some hard bits in the way of their triumphant entry into Auckland.

 

 

 

This is positively insane!!! I just Googled it, and the draft on an Open 70 is 14'-9". Man that gets my attention. Obviously the keel swings, lessening it somewhat, but you need some wind to have that work. They really have to thread the needle here. I mean, read the book that Tunnel Rat kindly posted -- it notes that the areas near Santa Isabel Island have not been mapped, and advises "utmost caution must be used when navigating in this area." Personally I would be scared shitless. How fucking brave are these dudes? ... my hat is off and I wish them a safe passage.

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Charts they trust ...

 

I presume their main charts will be C-Map since that is what Exp, Dfw and Adrena use.

 

That isn't the issue in a way. If you've ever been sailing in Fiji, the charts are of randomly dubious quality and I imagine the Solomons will have similar issues.

 

~ Nick

 

Nick - exactly what I meant!

 

 

 

SNIP I mean, read the book that Tunnel Rat kindly posted SNIP

 

The original poster of this was Bombarie - no credit to me!

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Charts they trust ...

 

If you've ever been sailing in Fiji, the charts are of randomly dubious quality and I imagine the Solomons will have similar issues.

 

~ Nick

 

Just a footnote: Last edition Puma and T-Blue sailed right through the Fiji archipelago, tacking upwind.

Even more scaring looking at Google Earth...

 

(Yes, and thank you, Expedition, for your highly appreciated work!)

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Following the latest report from 7AM UTC, TELE earnings in the last 24 hour run are as follows:

 

GP4 9 nm

PMA 32 nm

ABD 59 nm

TNZ 28 nm

 

Definitely TELE have switched from conservative to aggressive mode (about time!)... and seems that Cape has finally been able to get some sleep. Anything can happen, but if they get on the podium in Auckland we will have to smile and clap

 

 

 

 

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Just a footnote: Last edition Puma and T-Blue sailed right through the Fiji archipelago, tacking upwind.

 

It was a nice route down of Telefonica Blue, having lost a day to check the bulb after hitting a rock in the same starting line. Recovered and came together in Fiji ... then break the forestay, a big disappointment. And a note: this ship is now the Sanya boat

 

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@Expedition Great info with the map and the routing! Thanks, it helps greatly to understand the important moments coming in the next few hours.

 

Tele and Camper's gamble to go through the Salomons looks quite daring, but will make the end of the leg even more interesting.

 

Go groupama! Please don't make a repeat of your catastriophic doldrums crossing at the end of leg 2 part 1... :blink:

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If Sanya is following Tele through the Solomon's, what are the consequences of running aground? It was discussed before about ADOR and Sanya having already fulfilled their sponsorship duties, but with there wasn't really a jump-out-at-you danger before.

 

Now with the slalom through the Salomons, would they attempt to repair and race in the event of major keel failure? (hitting a reef doing 18kts)

 

HW

 

EDIT- Seems like last race everyone and their dog had one-piece suits. None to be seen this year? Maybe they're just saving them for the Southern Ocean but it seems interesting how the approach to foul weather gear could have changed.

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@Expedition Great info with the map and the routing! Thanks, it helps greatly to understand the important moments coming in the next few hours.

 

Tele and Camper's gamble to go through the Salomons looks quite daring, but will make the end of the leg even more interesting.

 

Go groupama! Please don't make a repeat of your catastriophic doldrums crossing at the end of leg 2 part 1... :blink:

 

Shall we start a club of worried Groupama fans?

 

The only thing that makes me feel better is that winds seem to be shifting south East when they will be south of the Solomon which is to Groupama advantage; If you look at "distance to the wind" (not sure that's the correct expression in English), that would put Groupama may be 300 NM ahead. But as it is a regime of lows passing between new Caledonia and New Zealand at some point the wind may shift west and unless Groupama manages to be between them and the finish then, they can come back if the fleet ends up on a startboard tack, Especially once you've considered that they will have a lateral leverage of may be 100 or 200NM.

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@Expedition Great info with the map and the routing! Thanks, it helps greatly to understand the important moments coming in the next few hours.

 

Tele and Camper's gamble to go through the Salomons looks quite daring, but will make the end of the leg even more interesting.

 

Go groupama! Please don't make a repeat of your catastriophic doldrums crossing at the end of leg 2 part 1... :blink:

 

Shall we start a club of worried Groupama fans?

 

The only thing that makes me feel better is that winds seem to be shifting south East when they will be south of the Solomon which is to Groupama advantage; If you look at "distance to the wind" (not sure that's the correct expression in English), that would put Groupama may be 300 NM ahead. But as it is a regime of lows passing between new Caledonia and New Zealand at some point the wind may shift west and unless Groupama manages to be between them and the finish then, they can come back if the fleet ends up on a startboard tack, Especially once you've considered that they will have a lateral leverage of may be 100 or 200NM.

 

 

 

Tele is dead. The decision to go through the islands was fatal. Two reasons: (i) there's no wind in there -- they have slowed to 7 knots; (ii) they come out at a shitty angle compared to the eastern guys, and have to sail ~10 degrees higher all the way to Auckland. Put a fork in Telefonica; they are done as far as Leg 4. Wtf were they thinking? ... it's a terrible risk and has no possibility of upside. Groupama is walking away with this leg rather handily. Just can't figure out why Tele didn't stay east and gut it out with Groupama, instead of trying to pull a fancy move that is hopeless.

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The decision to go through the islands was fatal...

 

The answer is simple: Following the initial plan TELE played to fourth. Sailing across the islands have a high risk but if something goes wrong it will be wrong for the whole West group (with TNZ in the pack, remember still 2nd overall) and will continue playing for the fourth ... in the worst case.

The low pressure in the north of New Zealand will slow down the trades in East and create stronger winds in the West, so chances to sail over 1500 miles to the wire in better conditions than the East group.

Taking this decision may end up the same or better result. Maybe very risky but I think not a mistake, they play to win... but let's enjoy this beautiful leg.

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Tele is dead. The decision to go through the islands was fatal. Two reasons: (i) there's no wind in there -- they have slowed to 7 knots; (ii) they come out at a shitty angle compared to the eastern guys, and have to sail ~10 degrees higher all the way to Auckland. Put a fork in Telefonica; they are done as far as Leg 4. Wtf were they thinking? ... it's a terrible risk and has no possibility of upside. Groupama is walking away with this leg rather handily. Just can't figure out why Tele didn't stay east and gut it out with Groupama, instead of trying to pull a fancy move that is hopeless.

 

This is a point race and their decision is perfectly rationale. Considering that Camper is following them, they have nothing to lose. If they had decided to go East they couldn't expect anything better than 4th, going west they can't expect anything worst than 4th

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Tele is dead. The decision to go through the islands was fatal. Two reasons: (i) there's no wind in there -- they have slowed to 7 knots; (ii) they come out at a shitty angle compared to the eastern guys, and have to sail ~10 degrees higher all the way to Auckland. Put a fork in Telefonica; they are done as far as Leg 4. Wtf were they thinking? ... it's a terrible risk and has no possibility of upside. Groupama is walking away with this leg rather handily. Just can't figure out why Tele didn't stay east and gut it out with Groupama, instead of trying to pull a fancy move that is hopeless.

 

This is a point race and their decision is perfectly rationale. Considering that Camper is following them, they have nothing to lose. If they had decided to go East they couldn't expect anything better than 4th, going west they can't expect anything worst than 4th

 

Perfect summary, Panoramix !

 

Tele is nowing sailing at 7 knots. It seems the crossing is going to be quite costly for them. Groupama has also slowed down, to 11 knots, but I'd rather be in their position than Tele's.

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So, looking at the wx this morning it seems like West about New Cal for everyone... Just goes to show how good my forecasting is. Also looks like there might be a far west option for the Solomons fleet going West of Chesterfield and then picking up the change. The East option tries to stay in touch with the winds from the H to the SE of NZ but skirts with a big transition area where the models are probably not all that accurate. East looks much faster to me, but I've been pretty much totally wrong so far and the model hasn't really settled down on how things will develop S of 25. Fun stuff.

post-41116-036832000 1330801413_thumb.png

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Update from this morning's positions - GFS again, same polars, no waves and no currents.

 

Even the GFS shows a wind shadow downwind of Guadalcanal, which might end up being like a big version of Guadeloupe which causes all sorts of problems in the races past it.

 

The good news is they will probably be up to 60 miles downwind as they go past, but the time of day (night) may be important.

 

Will has a good interview on the Volvo web site this morning.

 

One problem is the boats in the east after the Solomons will have a better angle, so the western boats may well be balancing height in the light before the trades with worries about wind shadows.

 

If the GFS is correct, the western boats will then have to gain easting to be on the east side of a ridge approaching northern NZ (see second screen image).

 

~ Nick

post-12648-032911100 1330801762_thumb.jpg

post-12648-004211700 1330801927_thumb.png

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Tele is dead. The decision to go through the islands was fatal.

 

The fatal thing was this windshift 30 hrs ago that blew all boats to the west - except groupama.

Going through the islands than was probably a better decision than working their way back east north of the Salomons.

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Tele is nowing sailing at 7 knots. It seems the crossing is going to be quite costly for them. Groupama has also slowed down, to 11 knots, but I'd rather be in their position than Tele's.

 

Yes, there is no doubt about this, Groupama is still in a much stronger position. It looks like that they have no choice but to go west of New Caledonia, monday or Tuesday the lateral distance between them will be much less and we will have a clearer picture.

 

South of the Solomon Telefonica should be marginally faster (sailing higher in light winds) but i can't see them catching up by more than 30 or 40NM. To start being close to telefonica in the overall ranking, Groupama needs Ian Walker or TNZ to finish ahead of Telefonica but I can't see this happening.

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The Cat is dogging it now. Trying hard to soak down. Trouble ahead?

 

Yeah Puma struggling a bit and Telefonica will be ahead next sked. Telefonica seem to be consistently faster than the fleet now.

 

appears the problem yesterday with Puma was a torn headsail...(.J2?)...which they have repaired. Sail ripping and repair just seen in the latest Volvo video.

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They're in my old back yard now! I lived on Guadalcanal for 2 years - and traveled to most all the other islands/provinces. Crazy reefs through there. It will be interesting to watch them thread that needle.

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Just catching up and listened to this very candid discussion of the East / West split in terms of navigation and long term routing. The charting issue is interesting. I think what WO was saying is that they are using the CM93 charts that are "out in the wild" because cmap doesn't cover the area. Interesting to see that being the best option for such a well connected and financed campaign. Also interesting to hear his thoughts on the odds of the Westerly position paying later in the leg.

 

http://new.livestream.com/camperemiratesteamnz/leg4/videos/223163

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I don't have very sophisticated tools, but looking at the VOR tracker with the weather on, this race does not look over. Telefonica are headed straight for favorable conditions that could eat up the margin pretty quickly.

post-635-052197400 1330815716_thumb.png

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Can't believe Sanya...and now Camper going trough those narrow "slots"...Incredible!...and looks like they are gaining on the West comparing to the "eastern" group...

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Good audio interview with Camper nav Will Oxley on live stream - discussing going through the Solomon Islands. My link

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Fack- did you see how close inshore Sanya went to Santa Isabel? I guess that area is charted or they have big cojones.

 

Interesting that the places haven't changed that much as a result of the cut-through- the next few days will be gripping. After almost 14 days at sea they are all within 250 of each eachother which is testament to all the boats and crews, regardless of the finger-pointing going on.

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