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Ludicrous Speed

Puma...

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Does it seem that these guys are always finding a way to fall behind early and then making major tactical mistakes? Its beginning to get annoying. 80 miles behind in DFL at current.

 

How many Volvo's is this now? How much $$$ has been spent? How about some silver?

 

Stop dicking around.

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Seem to make the wrong calls at critical moments. Inshore race in Sanya is the perfect example. The make major commitments and then forget to hedge their bets when the fleet does something else.

 

Ken Reed is a smart racer. I'm not sure why he continues to make these bonehead moves.

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Look at the weather, the rest of the fleet is sailing into nothing due east of Taiwan, by going more North towards Okinawa they are able to get into better pressure and angles off the southern end of Okinawa and avoid that hole.

 

The question will be whether the extra distance they have to sail to get there will be too much. All in all, another leg and another flyer by Puma.

 

Also, I don't know if you can really blame them for the first bit of the leg out of Sanya, they were leading all the way around the course and then sailed into a hole that none of the boats out there saw. Because they were leading everyone else was able to look at them and turn inshore where there was more breeze to be found. That's happened to everyone on this board.

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Im talking about the last 3 Volvo's (I think Puma has now done 3?).

 

These guys (Well funded, Americans) ALWAYS SEEM TO BE BEHIND. Not just in this leg, but in all the other legs, and all the other Volvo's.

 

Maybe its time for a new program with fresh new talent?

 

Look at the weather, the rest of the fleet is sailing into nothing due east of Taiwan, by going more North towards Okinawa they are able to get into better pressure and angles off the southern end of Okinawa and avoid that hole.

 

The question will be whether the extra distance they have to sail to get there will be too much. All in all, another leg and another flyer by Puma.

 

Also, I don't know if you can really blame them for the first bit of the leg out of Sanya, they were leading all the way around the course and then sailed into a hole that none of the boats out there saw. Because they were leading everyone else was able to look at them and turn inshore where there was more breeze to be found. That's happened to everyone on this board.

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Im wrong. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Volvo_Ocean_Race

 

They were second in the 08-09 Volvo. This is Puma's second Volvo Ocean Race race. Cayard was 2nd in the 07-08 Volvo.

 

Regardless... it's time to "show us the money!" No more excuses. Win.

 

 

Im talking about the last 3 Volvo's (I think Puma has now done 3?).

 

These guys (Well funded, Americans) ALWAYS SEEM TO BE BEHIND. Not just in this leg, but in all the other legs, and all the other Volvo's.

 

Maybe its time for a new program with fresh new talent?

 

Look at the weather, the rest of the fleet is sailing into nothing due east of Taiwan, by going more North towards Okinawa they are able to get into better pressure and angles off the southern end of Okinawa and avoid that hole.

 

The question will be whether the extra distance they have to sail to get there will be too much. All in all, another leg and another flyer by Puma.

 

Also, I don't know if you can really blame them for the first bit of the leg out of Sanya, they were leading all the way around the course and then sailed into a hole that none of the boats out there saw. Because they were leading everyone else was able to look at them and turn inshore where there was more breeze to be found. That's happened to everyone on this board.

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If I remember correctly from a thread over in Sport Boat anarchy... you are a ridiculous troll. You seem to be continuing that here.

 

This race has been as much bad luck for the Puma bunch as it has been bad decisions.

-Rig falling down

-Parking in an invisible hole at the start of the leg after leading 80% of the race

-Hooking a half mile wide, tough to see, fish trap in the straits of malacaa

-Getting caught under clouds in the first half of leg 2 and losing the lead.

 

Remember that before it all came crashing down in Leg 1 they were matching or exceeding Telefonicas speed in a wide variety of conditions and they were matching or faster than them in both of the in port races in Sanya.

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I woke up this AM knowing these guys did a great job catching back up to the fleet. Look at the tracker and WTF.

 

The risks of taking a flyer N and hedging everthing on this first move, hoping the cold front does what it's supposed to do, praying the winds from behind the front go NW and that they don't moderate to much entering the Pacific, betting that the E trade winds don't move back in...

 

I know it's a 5K mi leg but why keep leaving competitors between you and the mark? Not thinking there will be no more passing lanes? The risks far out weight the benifits.

 

I can understand going for broke since the first leg but a third place OA was within reach. They gotta know they got the boat and the program to finish the job.

 

Maybe I should have played the volvo race game? But what do I know.

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looks like they're going all in for the russian wives, just need to make a quick detour then they'll be back at it. no worries. :D

 

seriously, it has been a little hard to watch but i can't find all that much fault in how they've gone after this race. a string of bad luck has plagued the campaign this time around. is it all bad luck? maybe not, but in any race a little good luck never hurts and they have not seen much good luck, if any. plenty of bad luck.

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There are 2 options for this part of the leg after exiting the S China sea, either go east and wait for the wind to come to you, or sail to the shift and the pressure. Puma considered going north of Taiwan earlier to get to the pressure before caving and playing follow the fleet when the weather models started to diverge. In hindsight, that would have been a really good move. Now, they will be the first boat to the pressure and the shift that will allow them to set a kite for more than 2 hours. Puma looks like they will be in more pressure and a header 3 -4 hours before the breeze gets to the eastern boats. By then, the black cat will be doing low 20's and chewing up miles. The only other boat that may make out well is Telefonica. They've split the difference and are loose covering everyone. So the big question is can Puma pass Tele before they get the breeze. My guess is within 36 hours, Puma and Tele are 1-2 and making great VMG to Kiwiland.

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I have been watching and thinking the same thing. They sail fundamentally smart then take these flyers that put them in catch up mode. Time to stop banging the corners. Maybe they should consider a navigator switch in Auckland?

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Couldn't POSSIBLY be the guys on the other boats are actually pretty good too, .... could it ?

 

If a contest is fair, then the potential exists for ANY of the competitors to win, and thus somebody's gotta lose.

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even a bad dog/cat has a good day

 

even a blind squirrel will find a nut eventually

 

you can't lose all the time

 

etc.

 

 

though I wish all the teams all the luck, i still think it is interesting. (though more in a "why did they do that" kinda way. but that goes for both the first placed teams as the last placed teams. (yeah, i actually try to plot their routes and see if my route corresponds to the teams route as a learning exercise)

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Seriously?

 

If this was a real company (or a real sports team) at the very least somebody would be getting fired in Auckland. At the very worst the whole team would be fired but alot of weight has to come down to the leaders of the program (Nav/Skip).

 

Its time for a change here. I am actually watching more for the epic meltdown at this point... Its coming.

post-31531-060971200 1330056327_thumb.jpg

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I'd say that PUMA has got it wrong on most occasions, the last leg was probably the worst.

I don't why PUMA keep going for these massive separations from the fleet, so far they've come up empty handed.

That said TNZ haven't been making great calls either.

 

Telefoncia continue to make the least mistakes out of everyone and are pretty conservative, they're happy to sit mid-pack until they see an opportunity, although having a +3-5% boatspeed advantage probably helps as well.

 

 

 

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I wish I understood long distance ocean racing better. I'm just an inshore racer though.

 

If you equate the VOR legs to gigantic, normal race courses, Puma's actions make no sense to me. None whatsoever.

 

As I understand it (please correct me if I'm wrong), once they hook into the trades, it's a long beam reach on port for days. Not totally unlike a giant version of a reaching leg of an old Olympic course. Okay then: say we're on such a course leaving the marks to starboard. You come steaming into the weather mark on starboard tack. You pass the mark. It's a beamish reach on port tack across the pond to the next mark. But you stay on starboard for a while. It takes you almost directly in the wrong direction. Why would you ever do that? Hmmm, I suppose you might do it in a really big fleet if you had lots of boats ahead of your and wanted to get above everybody to get some clear air. But that's irrelevant here.

 

So what in tarnation is Puma doing?. ...what's the thinking? Is the thought that when they finally tack they'll have a .0001% better angle than the other guys? Are they going to Auckland via the North Pole? I'm looking at the wind forecast (of course, just the one on the VOR site; i realize there may be better info somewhere) and cycling through the different projections I just don't see the magic of being up northeast of everyone. I don't see any projections that say they are investing in a different weather system up there. What the heck is it, exactly, that Addis is trying to do? He's a damned good navigator obviously, so I am sure he has a cogent plan -- as a fan of the race I am just wondering if any of you guys can interpret for the benefit of a country rube what the heck's going on here.

 

I understood Groupama's flyer in Leg 1, and even Puma's half-flyer in Leg 2. Neither worked, but they could have. But this one is a total mystery to me -- there is about a zero percent chance of it working, unless I miss my guess.

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PUMA have now turned east but +150nm is a heap of water to make up.

 

I guess the AWA is more healthy for fast reaching and maybe there's more pressure.

Early pain?

The fleet have a heap of easting to do to get around PNG anyway.

 

I think TNZ is going to be hard to beat on this leg, home port n all.

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They have now been racing for 5 days and Puma is 260 miles behind the leader. That's more than 50 miles lost per day. They are the furthest north and the furtherest west. It makes no sense to me. That cannot be the fastest way to get south and east.

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The problem is you have to sail almost all the way to NZ's longitude before you can turn south as there is no breeze to the south or the east of the fleet. The two options you are left with are to sail all the way to Japan and then turn down or ghost across a great big expanse of nothing hoping the breeze fills.

 

If Puma makes it to the breeze off the southern tip of Japan before anything good happens to the rest of the fleet they will be gone, Of course if things fill south of them they will be so far behind everyone else they will be racing to make the next start.

 

In a way this flyer strategy makes sense, the leaderboard is split between the teams that dropped out of Leg 1 and the ones that finished. The only way for Puma to bridge that gap is to start winning legs and getting lucky with the finish order behind them. One way or the other, I bet they'd be happier if someone had come North with them.

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The problem is you have to sail almost all the way to NZ's longitude before you can turn south as there is no breeze to the south or the east of the fleet. The two options you are left with are to sail all the way to Japan and then turn down or ghost across a great big expanse of nothing hoping the breeze fills.

 

If Puma makes it to the breeze off the southern tip of Japan before anything good happens to the rest of the fleet they will be gone, Of course if things fill south of them they will be so far behind everyone else they will be racing to make the next start.

 

In a way this flyer strategy makes sense, the leaderboard is split between the teams that dropped out of Leg 1 and the ones that finished. The only way for Puma to bridge that gap is to start winning legs and getting lucky with the finish order behind them. One way or the other, I bet they'd be happier if someone had come North with them.

 

 

 

Interesting. I kind of understand this flyer -- I think -- but it seems to me highly problematic that Puma is 260 miles behind these guys. They are, right now, just plain old _behind_ ... as one of the posters said, they have no leverage on the fleet. So you're saying that the breeze is likely to fill in around the southern tip of Japan? Won't it fill in for the fleet, too?

 

Maybe they'll have another crack at it, since there is a Doldrums crossing on this leg too. Biting my nails ... I hate to see Puma doing this badly. Morale on the boat may significantly depend on the outcome of this maneuver.

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Time and time again Kenny and Tom have been quoted as saying that, when it comes to major navigational decisions, they often try to look at it and think what they would do if there were no other boats in the race.

 

The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them was probably born out of this sort of decision making process.

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The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them ...

 

The option to cover the fleet was never there.

I think it was a clever move and will work out fine.

If not, it was a nice way to attract a lot of attention. :-)

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The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them ...

 

The option to cover the fleet was never there.

I think it was a clever move and will work out fine.

If not, it was a nice way to attract a lot of attention. :-)

 

From a marketing standpoint it's great, everyone is all Puma this and Puma that. Not hearing much about Camper right now and this is a race to their home. B)

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Seems to me they are sailing the boat like they think it is not able to keep up with the competition.

 

 

 

Agreed. I thought that to a certainty Puma had the best-funded program and the fastest boat. I still do. They have shown tremendous outright boat speed at times. Plus they have have that wierd plankton-Doppler-thing on their keel! I heard KR speak about it last year, and it seemed like the sponsors had basically said, just spec whatever you want on the boat and we'll pay for it without question.

 

Still, when I zoom out on the tracker, the amount that they are "behind" is just a rounding error compared to how far everyone has to go. I have a feeling that they are going to come back together with the fleet, sorta like they did on the last leg.

 

Would LOVE to have some good videos of the conversations on board that boat!!!

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Yes, the video would be interesting. The one yesterday of the guy under the boom pointing out the direction to NZ twice was a bit humbling and must be the tone on the boat. So then, being northwest of the fleet by ~250 nm? It seems to me that they are taking the outside lane around the corner at which point they will need to probably double this distance in reality. All of the messages from the boats indicate thatt he weather files don't match what they are seeing on the water. I don't know about the rest of you but when I have bet my chips on the forecast as opposed to what I've witnessed in a distance race I have usually bit it big time. My point is why believe what you have no ability to put merit to? I mean I really hope that this works out for them, but really..... Yes: PUMA, PUMA, PUMA, great marketing I understand. Is this just a floating billboard event? I like the post above about the safe zone to get loaded on a tanker...classic! Well since its still snowing, I'll keep watching this circus.

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Yes, the video would be interesting. The one yesterday of the guy under the boom pointing out the direction to NZ twice was a bit humbling and must be the tone on the boat. So then, being northwest of the fleet by ~250 nm? It seems to me that they are taking the outside lane around the corner at which point they will need to probably double this distance in reality. All of the messages from the boats indicate thatt he weather files don't match what they are seeing on the water. I don't know about the rest of you but when I have bet my chips on the forecast as opposed to what I've witnessed in a distance race I have usually bit it big time. My point is why believe what you have no ability to put merit to? I mean I really hope that this works out for them, but really..... Yes: PUMA, PUMA, PUMA, great marketing I understand. Is this just a floating billboard event? I like the post above about the safe zone to get loaded on a tanker...classic! Well since its still snowing, I'll keep watching this circus.

 

 

Sailboat racing has so many analogies to trading stocks. When you're on the wrong side of a trade, it's generally suicidal to just stick to your guns. You *have* to cut your losses and live to fight another day.

 

I am really worried that if Puma's gambit doesn't pay off, they will be essentially done in this VOR. To say nothing of the morale and future sponsorship problems that may give rise to. That's akin to bankrupting the program; game over.

 

From a risk management standpoint this seems off-the-charts crazy.

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The 0402 position report is up and Puma is moving and has closed up about 30NM. Suppose it is working? The forecast winds are placing Puma in a stronger band of wind.

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The 0402 position report is up and Puma is moving and has closed up about 30NM. Suppose it is working? The forecast winds are placing Puma in a stronger band of wind.

 

You know what? It's going to work. The fleet is gasping for air, and Puma has found a bit of breeze. They will find more. Betcha they keep going east for two more days. I think they are actually going to win this leg.

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The 0402 position report is up and Puma is moving and has closed up about 30NM. Suppose it is working? The forecast winds are placing Puma in a stronger band of wind.

 

You know what? It's going to work. The fleet is gasping for air, and Puma has found a bit of breeze. They will find more. Betcha they keep going east for two more days. I think they are actually going to win this leg.

I hope they do win. Just as long as the hole that the other boats are in doesn't collapse they stand a better chance. The other boats are all heading north now.

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250 nm is lotsa water. in 6 hrs those to the south show wind (on the VOR site). Additionally Puma will sail into dead air in 24. Time will tell. In any event a high risk move especially considering that they know they have a fast boat compared to the others as stated in an earlier post. lets see nw, 5040/5000=1.008. The numbers never lie, they should have just out sailed them.

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What a reception 'Camper' would receive if they won the leg, but damn I'd love to see this strategy play out successfully for 'Mar Mostro' after the disappointment of stage 1.

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Time and time again Kenny and Tom have been quoted as saying that, when it comes to major navigational decisions, they often try to look at it and think what they would do if there were no other boats in the race.

 

The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them was probably born out of this sort of decision making process.

Maybe they should start staying with the fleet the other naviguessers seem to be doing a better job

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Seriously?

 

If this was a real company (or a real sports team) at the very least somebody would be getting fired in Auckland. At the very worst the whole team would be fired but alot of weight has to come down to the leaders of the program (Nav/Skip).

 

Its time for a change here. I am actually watching more for the epic meltdown at this point... Its coming.

 

You want to recant any of this? How much offshore sailing do you have? Almost every Transpac there is the question of how close do you want to get to the high, and how many extra miles do you want to sail. Seems to me Puma is doing alright, considering there is still over 4000 mile left to go.

 

Cheers,

 

opusone

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Well done, Tom Addis, and to Ken for sticking with the tactic. It may have been the right analytical choice to push so far north to the low, but for the majority (and your peers) it didn't 'look' right. Most of us have painful memories of breaking from the fleet to pursue an elusive wind patch, only to see the wind fill in behind us. Going alone to the wind for 270 nm in the VOR is magnitudes braver. Great to see Groupama try a contrarian route in leg 1, Sanya take the lead on a solo runner in leg 2, and now Puma nearing the front after their massive break.

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Still now any regret to write so quickly and so negative about Monstro ?????

 

:)))))))))))))))))))))))

 

 

The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them ...

 

The option to cover the fleet was never there.

I think it was a clever move and will work out fine.

If not, it was a nice way to attract a lot of attention. :-)

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Still plenty of miles and time to work themselves to the back of the fleet

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Good to see their big northerly risk paid so far. Its fun to see them near the top of the leaderboard. Hope they can get thru the next 72 hours of funk nicely and keep it going. This fleet is still really tight. Anything could happen.

 

If they blow it again, and fall back into the back few positions, will there be pink slips in Aukland?

 

Good luck boys. Dont screw it up!

 

As the Donald says....

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Still now any regret to write so quickly and so negative about Monstro ?????

 

:)))))))))))))))))))))))

 

 

The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them ...

 

The option to cover the fleet was never there.

I think it was a clever move and will work out fine.

If not, it was a nice way to attract a lot of attention. :-)

 

Talking to me?

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Sorry Edelweis just talkin Left hook :(

 

 

 

Still now any regret to write so quickly and so negative about Monstro ?????

 

:)))))))))))))))))))))))

 

 

The decision to go north rather than stick with the fleet and cover them ...

 

The option to cover the fleet was never there.

I think it was a clever move and will work out fine.

If not, it was a nice way to attract a lot of attention. :-)

 

Talking to me?

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Looks like the CRAZYKENNY manuver worked out, got a race on our hands here folks!!!

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Looks like the CRAZYKENNY manuver worked out, got a race on our hands here folks!!!

As of 7PM Friday 2200 miles to shit the bed :huh:

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Looks like the CRAZYKENNY manuver worked out, got a race on our hands here folks!!!

As of 7PM Friday 2200 miles to shit the bed :huh:

 

Why don't you go out there and help him?

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Looks like the CRAZYKENNY manuver worked out, got a race on our hands here folks!!!

As of 7PM Friday 2200 miles to shit the bed :huh:

 

Why don't you go out there and help him?

They don't need my help to shit the bed, they seem to be doing fine on there own

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So the "bad luck" routine begins again?

 

Why is it that Telfonica never seems to speak of bad luck. Its about getting to the dock before the other boats, no excuses. They chewed thru a poor position and have blown by Puma. Embarrassing.

 

In the immortal words of the Donald...

 

 

Its time for a new pitcher...

post-31531-056211100 1331127638_thumb.jpg

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Classic Navi-Fail. These guys seem to not have the word CONSISTENCY in their vocabulary. Hopefully the wind gods play nice and Puma gets on the right side of the course.

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Finally, Puma tacked on top of Telefonica, only a couple of miles apart!

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Nah, time to roll the dice. Go big or go home!

They have been rolling the dice for 4 legs, see how well it working

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Sarcasm lost on you?

Like I said earlier, they are sailing the boat like they think it is slower than the competition and trying to get lucky.

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Finally, Puma tacked on top of Telefonica, only a couple of miles apart!

 

 

It is looking like Camper got past Puma now and they never seem to be capable of beating Tele so my guess is a 4th place finish. That would be another disapointing finish for Puma.

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At least they are in the hunt. Still a crap shoot for 2nd -4th. They have the talent - proven over many years on many boats in many venues - now they have to stay focused for the final miles. Hope the boat proves fast on the breeze in waves.

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From the latest tracker position (22:26:59 UTC), looks like PUMA will ram into that small island north-west of the cap of NZ.

It's daylight, I hope they see it, it's not time do get on ground.

 

The French looks on their way to a victory.Finally!!!!

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Finally, Puma tacked on top of Telefonica, only a couple of miles apart!

 

 

It is looking like Camper got past Puma now and they never seem to be capable of beating Tele so my guess is a 4th place finish. That would be another disapointing finish for Puma.

 

 

It's all swung around with the latest sched. Less than 100 miles to the finish, they are in second place and in good breeze, looks like they may be able to make this work for them.

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They've been ahead for the last 1/2 day or so. Now that they've turned the corner, they can at least count on reducing the amount of leverage either Camper or Telefonica can create and better keep themselves between the finish and the trailing two. Looks doable.

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