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      Abbreviated rules   07/28/2017

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Swanno

VOR Leg 6

759 posts in this topic

classic move by TF they actually pushed GA to go inside. GA intended on covering I'm sure but had to much of a lead and an Island in the way.

I hope Groupama went where they thought best anyway, and rather left Telefonica with "the other option".

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groupama inside, tele seems going outside,

front runners much faster and again at 50Nm distance,

outside looks better from my armchair, let's hope not...

 

better match racing here than in AC series;)

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groupama seems sailing inside cat island, or at least keeping this option open..are they covering tele? or trying sneak in front?

PassageWeather's gulf stream charts favours the outside. Not sure about the wind grids, better pressure inside in the short run, but less favourable direction when going outside again for the mark. Or so it seems to me.

 

Expedition, any bets?

It's not deep between Eleuthera and Little San Salvador, 11m is marked on this map. Between Little San Salvador and Cat Island is just marked "shoal".

 

Given the depth differences, ought to be easier for the current to just swoop around on the outside of the islands instead of going over there. As Groupama, would you go for the inside if the wind forecast favours it slightly? Decision time coming up.

The models have been changing quite a bit with every new run. This weather isn't usual this time of year and it's hard to read. The little high pressure due east of the boats was earlier forecast to drift NE and permit re-establishment of the trades about now. That's been blown all to hell. Hard to count on too much from the models in these conditions.

 

Current usually pushes onto the banks. Normally that would mean GA4 would be facing an adverse current coming out from behind Cat I. and up the east coast of Eleuthera. But, then again, nothing has been very normal the last few days, so that may not happen this time. The route inside Cat I. is longer, too, probably by 25-30 miles.

 

On the tracker, it seems GA4 is pretty committed to going inside Cat I. They would pay a heavy price to change to the outside now. IMHO, they will pay a price for going inside, too. Tele can still go either way, it appears.

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It looks as if Telefonica nicely conned Groupama into going inside.

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Maybe I missed it, but what's the rationale for the three marks? Are they trying to save the teams from themselves by insisting they sail around the islands instead of running aground somewhere? It would certainly have been much more interesting without those marks. With the exception of Telefonica's failed diversion, it looks like a procession around the marks, with easy covering by Puma.

 

Any one of the three would have been sufficient, I think, to specify the course. The others are redundant, as there is no other course choice through the Northeast Providence Channel. These guys can't go across the banks. And they can't leave Great Issac or Great Stirrup to starboard without getting acquainted with coral and sand and broken boats.

 

So why this course? Because if the Old Bahama Channel route were permitted, there would be far less strategic racing, an assured parade and no choice but to play "follow the leader." It's got a strong favorable current, steadier trade winds and good surfing waves, coming all the way from Africa and being channeled through the channel. It would not be rational to take any other route if the Old Bahama Channel were permitted. A parade all the way from Antigua to Miami is pretty much guaranteed on that route.

 

On the present route, we had GA4 take the route south of the Caicos Bank while everyone else went north; they moved from dfl to 3rd. That wasn't a procession, was it?

 

Now we have GA4 and Tele playing "cat and mouse" with Cat I. and Tele trapping GA4 into what may be a less favored route in another hour or so, while they can still turn NE and take the (possibly) fast track. That isn't a procession, now, is it?

 

Those three marks are producing more essential strategic choices that the entire rest of the VOR. There's limited drama in the other legs because the choices of optimal routing is so transparently evident to everyone.

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Now that the tracker is on real time, it's interesting to look at the indicated wind speed and direction for each boat. The wind where Puma and Camper are (the wind Groupama will have coming out from behind Cat I.) is at 180-182 degrees. That means, IMHO, GA4 is likely to be stuck for some time dead downwind in light air (or sailing a hotter angle backward) when they come out. That's going to hurt.

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It looks as if Telefonica nicely conned Groupama into going inside.

 

If that's the case it now looks like Tele has conned themselves into the same route. Winds were a bit soft headed north, but it doesn't look much better where Group is now.

 

These guys can't seem to get anything right on the final stretch of this leg., whereas before it seemed they could do no wrong.

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it's interesting to look at the indicated wind speed and direction for each boat.

 

But you don't get these in real time do you ?

 

Otherwise looks like Tele is really hesitating !

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Looks like they are trying to avoid the expanding high that caught ADOR.

 

Charts here:

 

EarthNC

 

 

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It looks as if Telefonica nicely conned Groupama into going inside.

 

If that's the case it now looks like Tele has conned themselves into the same route. Winds were a bit soft headed north, but it doesn't look much better where Group is now.

 

These guys can't seem to get anything right on the final stretch of this leg., whereas before it seemed they could do no wrong.

 

 

I'm not quite sure what you mean. Telefonica is still heading north towards the outside, with slighlty better speed last time I looked.

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It looks as if Telefonica nicely conned Groupama into going inside.

 

If that's the case it now looks like Tele has conned themselves into the same route. Winds were a bit soft headed north, but it doesn't look much better where Group is now.

 

These guys can't seem to get anything right on the final stretch of this leg., whereas before it seemed they could do no wrong.

 

And now they're back again headed North in what appears to be a little better pressure. The high has turned this into a crap shoot.

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It looks as if Telefonica nicely conned Groupama into going inside.

 

If that's the case it now looks like Tele has conned themselves into the same route. Winds were a bit soft headed north, but it doesn't look much better where Group is now.

 

These guys can't seem to get anything right on the final stretch of this leg., whereas before it seemed they could do no wrong.

 

 

I'm not quite sure what you mean. Telefonica is still heading north towards the outside, with slighlty better speed last time I looked.

 

Look at their track, west, north, west, north.

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I'm looking at the Live tracker. Tele have been going north pretty steadily for a couple of hours at least.

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Why the two tacks from Puma? Camper closing the cap sailing in a straight line it looks like.

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My guess is jibes, not tacks. Dead spot and sailing hot angles with the (what little there is) from astern. I've been wrong before and will be again.

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Why the two tacks from Puma? Camper closing the gap sailing in a straight line it looks like.

 

 

Right, what is that all about?

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Live tracker has Camper straight line at 10 knots. Puma hunting for wind at 4 knots. Weather overlay indicating Zero wind. It's not over yet. Lot's of holes in the wind for the next few hours.

 

 

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Why the two tacks from Puma? Camper closing the gap sailing in a straight line it looks like.

 

 

Right, what is that all about?

they are very slow indeed and almost stopped. Fishing net or corral ?

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A fair bit of convection popping up to the north and west. Could make for an interesting evening for the boys.

 

Sat map

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They haven't even bothered with Aba Daba on the live tracker :(

 

 

ADOR should just turn on the engine and get to Miami. Those guys ran out of food yesterday. At this rate, it will be Thursday or Friday before they arrive. It really makes me sick that Ian Walker is such a douchebag that he tried to save a few pounds of weight on a 70-foot boat. It sucks to go without food for 2-4 days, and being up and about most of the day and night makes it that much worse. It's also pretty hard on your system. It really makes me feel sorry for those blokes sailing for him.

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Why the two tacks from Puma? Camper closing the gap sailing in a straight line it looks like.

Right, what is that all about?

they are very slow indeed and almost stopped. Fishing net or corral ?

 

Yep, very painful to lose half of your lead at this point. Getting down to 7 miles ahead with 220 miles to go must turn up the anxiety meter. Something must have gone wrong, they probably would prefer a fishing net or coral as compared to something breaking on the boat!

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Puma at 3.3 knots, while Camper right behind closing in at 10 knots. What's wrong with the cat?

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Puma at 3.3 knots, while Camper right behind closing in at 10 knots. What's wrong with the cat?

 

It's called no wind. They are playing with puffs. Evening should bring something.

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Can't ADOR suspend racing, go get some food, and then restart, and still finish this leg in the same position?

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Tele will come round the island ahead of G4 it seems ...

well done turning right at the last moment !

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Getting dark but still pretty spectacular to watch telly gybing down the coast, i bet.

Smart tactical sailing, getting in different water than the boat you need to beat when behind, get a bit of pressure off the land as it cools and launched. Too bad for G4.

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PUMA looks as if they really made out well scraping past James Point; CAMPER is all over the place. still trying to clear that point; as I type, they are heading 207 degrees!?!

 

first boat to get around the top of Eleuthera should lead the parade into Miami

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Jeez, ADOR carrying the wooden spoon again........an empty one at that. They'll be nibbling at the MCM before the leg is out.

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Groupama is doing a lot of thrashing about in there. Should we call in a protest for pumping? Telefonica foxed them pretty good and is now eating their lunch. (Or is it Abu Dhabi's lunch. They must have left it somewhere!)

 

Sadly, it's likely to get worse for Groupama before it gets better. The probably won't fall behind Abu Dhabi, but that's all Abu Dhabi's fault.

 

For the moment, Camper: V=4.8 Kt; VMG = 0 Kt! I think they may be heading inshore to get into the current along the shore line. There's not much wind, so the current is extra important.

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G4 may still prevail on angle, may come out in a relative header.

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Can't ADOR suspend racing, go get some food, and then restart, and still finish this leg in the same position?

 

Worked for Telefonica in the last leg. Rum Cay is a beautiful place. Pick where the wind will fill back in, start the momo and get in there. Kick back with a Red Stripe for a few hours, food up, rest and get all recharged. Hit 'er again when the wind fills 12 hours from now.

 

Back in the hunt, rested, recharged and ready!

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This is it, moment of truth; Puma going for Eleuthera Light have got stuck, less the 2 knots wind and Camper is going out East (I hope), doing 5 k; they'll keep going and gybe later in a little more breeze and miss the dead spot..

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Can't ADOR suspend racing, go get some food, and then restart, and still finish this leg in the same position?

 

Would have to be for a min 12 hours.

Trash the boat and use that as as excuse that a repair is needed to suspend racing?

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Can't ADOR suspend racing, go get some food, and then restart, and still finish this leg in the same position?

 

Would have to be for a min 12 hours.

Trash the boat and use that as as excuse that a repair is needed to suspend racing?

 

 

I don't think they have to trash the boat. If you get outside assistance for any reason, you just need to sit tight for 12 hours until you can start again. What is the downside of having someone come out and bring them some food, and just dropping anchor for the requisite period? There's no wind anyways. Being really hungry sucks, and there's no point here. They should just get some stuff delivered for those guys ... it may take ages to get to Miami unless some breeze kicks up. It's just really stupid. Walker has lost my respect for sure.

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This is it, moment of truth; Puma going for Eleuthera Light have got stuck, less the 2 knots wind and Camper is going out East (I hope), doing 5 k; they'll keep going and gybe later in a little more breeze and miss the dead spot..

Eeeek!

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This is it, moment of truth; Puma going for Eleuthera Light have got stuck, less the 2 knots wind and Camper is going out East (I hope), doing 5 k; they'll keep going and gybe later in a little more breeze and miss the dead spot..

Eeeek!

 

 

 

Puma looks to be okay.

 

Still, the breeze, light as it is, seems forecast to totally shut off in a few. Wonder how the heck they get south while crossing the Gulf Stream if there is no wind.

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Got to give Cape the thumbs up for completely duping G4. (Granted, at the time his only option was to go outside and split) I will bet that G4 ill be over 20 miles behind Tele at the first light and the 5 points G4 threw away will be the deciding margin. G4 sure seems slow this leg which multiplies the margin decision errors.

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Puma gybe for the tip of Eleuthera, Camper follows but consistently 11 miles behind. It's somewhat of a drag race from here to the finish with not much in the way of tactics besides VMG running better. Kenny has said before that he doesn't think the time he spent doing (and winning) SORC's will help them but you've gotta think that there's not a skipper among the boats who has spent more time sailing in the Gulfstream off of SW Florida than he has. GO THE BLACK BOAT

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Looks on the tracker like Camper gybed a bit early and they'll have to gybe back or sail low and slow to make the tip of Eleuthrea. Puma is already around, has a nice breeze and is extending - at least for the moment.

 

Puma has gotten a nice header and is making tracks. Camper has picked up some speed; if they get the header, they may make it past Eleuthera okay.

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Don't count Gpma out just yet. They are probably just ahead of Tele on the water.

Doubtful when there is a reef or two and an island in the way to the mark. Brave effort but is is going to end up giving the VOR title to Tele I'm afraid.

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Don't count Gpma out just yet. They are probably just ahead of Tele on the water.

 

You're joking, right? They'll be lucky, IMHO, to stay within competitive reach of Tele.

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Don't count Gpma out just yet. They are probably just ahead of Tele on the water.

 

You're joking, right? They'll be lucky, IMHO, to stay within competitive reach of Tele.

 

 

Not at all. Even a cursory look at it shows Gpma to be 15-30 minutes ahead at present.

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Gpma accelerating now they're climbing out of that hole plus they'll harden up nicely along the Eleuthera shoreline, doing 11 plus while the Telephone is down. They'll be third to the Light. As for Camper and Puma - amazing that they're doing 10 plus knots in 2 - can't be accurate, wind speed, I mean.

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I hope i have to eat my words later but GPMA has made the costliest mistake so far, letting their direct rivals for the lead pass them.

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I hope i have to eat my words later but GPMA has made the costliest mistake so far, letting their direct rivals for the lead pass them.

 

They currently have a 5 mile lead on Tele.

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Don't count Gpma out just yet. They are probably just ahead of Tele on the water.

 

You're joking, right? They'll be lucky, IMHO, to stay within competitive reach of Tele.

 

So many posts and words, so little sense...

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I hope i have to eat my words later but GPMA has made the costliest mistake so far, letting their direct rivals for the lead pass them.

 

 

I think Groupama will be fine. It was a pretty cheeky move by Franck -- I mean, what the heck, why not try something out-of-the-box? Bet they cross Tele with miles to spare.

 

KR is clearly pulling away from Nico and Co. Unless the wind totally dies, I reckon Puma's allll set here. Cool.

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Tele has just gybed back toward G4; I make it around 6-7nm lead to G4.

I'm still worried about G4's boatspeed but this move doesn't seem to have killed them.

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Tele gybing to cover?

Cover from behind?

 

Groupama is still in front, and faster at the moment. Given present angles, the ruler says about 10 nm ahead when their paths cross.

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Tele gybing to cover?

Cover from behind?

 

Groupama is still in front, and faster at the moment. Given present angles, the ruler says about 10 nm ahead when their paths cross.

I hope so. they need the five points!

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Tele gybing to cover?

Cover from behind?

 

Groupama is still in front, and faster at the moment. Given present angles, the ruler says about 10 nm ahead when their paths cross.

According to the tracker, Groupama was 13.5 nm ahead of Telefonika at the point of no return vs going inside (the 14:55 sched yesterday). At the moment they are going a knot or two faster, it will be interesting to see if the inside turns out to be better than the outside. We'll see at the Eleuthera Island light.

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Tele gybing to cover?

Cover from behind?

 

Groupama is still in front, and faster at the moment. Given present angles, the ruler says about 10 nm ahead when their paths cross.

I hope so. they need the five ten points vis-à-vis Telefonica!

 

Fixed.

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Being really hungry sucks, and there's no point here. They should just get some stuff delivered for those guys ... it may take ages to get to Miami unless some breeze kicks up. It's just really stupid. Walker has lost my respect for sure.

 

 

How about grinding up some boat parts and making porridge?

 

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Abu Dhabi: will they finish before scurvy breaks out in the crew?

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Wow. I went to bed thinking Tele would eat G4 alive; I come back this morning to find the Frogs are still an hour ahead. Why did Tele go so far north, instead of sticking closer to the islands where there seemed to be more wind last evening?

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Tele heads north again hoping not to confirm the loss.

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Until they jibe

 

Looks like they are beating upwind now with the wind coming from West

 

Come on G4 you can do it!

Trouble is Tele is a lot quicker upwind than G4 :(

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I am not sure what Groupama wa thinking when they went inide cat island but they are being sensible again and are now covering Telefonica. With a lead of 8NM, no lateral leverage and the wind more established , they are now in a much better position.

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"In short, if you want to find an area, which is protected from the wind, you should go to the West of Cat Island. It's worth knowing..."

funny yann riou

 

 

groupama seems still in lead, going a little higher and faster trying to cover tele..

 

Alysum, from tracker it seems tehy are dead downwind, and wind direction seems stable at 120°-140° since many hours. no upwind. groupama sailing around 130 to the wind, tele 160.

 

If the wind prediction on tracker is correct, with wind moving to 150°-180° in next hours it seems all good for groupama, who might wait a bit for a single jibe to the Eleuth light. They probably can wait for tele to jibe first, they will be able to see each other in few hours as morning comes.

Anyone knows how far can they check each other with their radars?

 

awesome race

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bon sangfroid by the mighty french led internationally (but majority francophone and philic) crew

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Anyone knows how far can they check each other with their radars?

 

I would say at least 10NM and considering that they are currently sailing on flat water, probably more.

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Don't count Gpma out just yet. They are probably just ahead of Tele on the water.

 

You're joking, right? They'll be lucky, IMHO, to stay within competitive reach of Tele.

 

So many posts and words, so little sense...

 

 

Well, to give him his due, Gpma is more like 3/4 of an hour ahead now, but some of that may just be Tele not wanting to fall in behind.

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Well, this is interesting; Camper at near 20 knots, Puma 13 ... but too late I think. But who knows?

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Since there's no separation, puma can easily cover. camper would have to hope for better pressure and set puma up so that after almost catching puma, the possible passing in the same wind will happen in campers sweetest angle/configuration. Would be magic :) but not holding my breath

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G4 boatspeed issues again; Tele is inching up from behind

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G4 boatspeed issues again; Tele is inching up from behind

 

It isn't going that fast, just about a mile (but fast enough to catch before Miami). Don't forget that G4 is(was) in the lee of Eleuthera Island and Tele not yet.

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Tele is closing in on G4 fast now

 

yes, let's hope it's a "close to the cape" effect.

 

Otherwise there was the live vacation from G4 a few minutes ago, and Cammas didn't seem too worried to loose the 3rd place, maybe wrong ...

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yes, let's hope it's a "close to the cape" effect.

 

Otherwise there was the live vacation from G4 a few minutes ago, and Cammas didn't seem too worried to loose the 3rd place, maybe wrong ...

 

G4 is faster now, but heading more to the north. They have a quite sharp kink in their course, could this be a sailchange (bearing off to make live on the pointy end easier)?

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Tele is closing in on G4 fast now

 

yes, let's hope it's a "close to the cape" effect.

 

Otherwise there was the live vacation from G4 a few minutes ago, and Cammas didn't seem too worried to loose the 3rd place, maybe wrong ...

 

He was pretty loose - he didn't even have an idea on the ETA.

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Tele is closing in on G4 fast now

 

yes, let's hope it's a "close to the cape" effect.

 

Groupama's been extending after the cape with 2-3kn better boat speed. Telefonica just about to get away from the lee. Ruler distance 10-11nm.

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Franck pulls out the whip at last but Iker is about to get his chance in clean air

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Anyone there with a chart of the current?

Puma going strait south because of it?

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PUMA's move to the south now is to set themselves up to cover CAMPER at CAMPER's rounding; if PUMA had set out too far into the Stream running 4-5 knots to the north, and CAMPER, after rounding, had headed south immediately, PUMA would have been stuck in the current and unable to cover

 

PUMA can now be in position to cover CAMPER no matter what course CAMPER sets

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PUMA's move to the south now is to set themselves up to cover CAMPER at CAMPER's rounding; if PUMA had set out too far into the Stream running 4-5 knots to the north, and CAMPER, after rounding, had headed south immediately, PUMA would have been stuck in the current and unable to cover

 

PUMA can now be in position to cover CAMPER no matter what course CAMPER sets

 

Read is good at this sort of thing.

 

 

 

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Anyone there with a chart of the current?

Puma going strait south because of it?

From passageweather.com and their gulf stream forecast: 12 o'clock today.

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Ok. If I read it right, the current is building up now. Would you go as far south as possible maybe even go to the finish from south or would you cross the current north and sneek down nearly on the shore or would you go to the lat of miami and the turn directly west?

I mean, no matter what Campers is going to do.

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PUMA's move to the south now is to set themselves up to cover CAMPER at CAMPER's rounding; if PUMA had set out too far into the Stream running 4-5 knots to the north, and CAMPER, after rounding, had headed south immediately, PUMA would have been stuck in the current and unable to cover

 

PUMA can now be in position to cover CAMPER no matter what course CAMPER sets

 

Read is good at this sort of thing.

 

Cover Kenny, COVER!

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See PUMA cover. Cover, PUMA, cover...

 

PUMA will stick to CAMPER now like glue; if CAMPER opts to head south out of the current by staying on the east side of the main thrust of the Gulf Stream, so too will PUMA; if CAMPER crosses the Stream now and tries the close-to-shore route along Florida, so too will PUMA

 

PUMA will NOT let this one get away

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PUMA's move to the south now is to set themselves up to cover CAMPER at CAMPER's rounding; if PUMA had set out too far into the Stream running 4-5 knots to the north, and CAMPER, after rounding, had headed south immediately, PUMA would have been stuck in the current and unable to cover

 

PUMA can now be in position to cover CAMPER no matter what course CAMPER sets

 

Read is good at this sort of thing.

 

Love the cover move. Dennis, you watching?

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Interestingly, PUMA is heading south again, no doubt looking to gain just a bit more leverage on CAMPER

 

one would imagine that PUMA wants to stay upcurrent of CAMPER at all times, and just a little bit more to the west- but not by too much

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back in the day, there used to be an SORC race known as the Ocean Triangle, where the fleet would start at Miami and head across the Stream to a mark on the edge of the Bahama Bank and then back west again

 

it was all about what angle to cross the Stream, and where

 

Kenny did a few of those races; this is old hat stuff now

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PUMA stuck it in to the south further than I would have expected; they must have been getting some significant current relief behind N. & S. Bimini

 

now CAMPER will be first, if they maintain their present course, to hit the main thrust of the Stream on their bow; could be a good move again by PUMA

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>>back in the day, there used to be an SORC race known as the Ocean Triangle<

 

Brings back memories to see these boats sail much of the same waters. We won Class B in that race one year back in the days of the old IOR war horses. This it was the same year of the nasty Miami - Naussu race so well documented in this old SI article " Reaching and Retching to Naussu" (I don't remember much reaching). That was not a fun ride.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1090820/index.htm

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somehow camper closed to a 5 Nm gap in an hour...not finished yet?

 

Let's hope puma makes it or kenny could make the ED eat the first page ;)

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somehow camper closed to a 5 Nm gap in an hour...not finished yet?

 

Let's hope puma makes it or kenny could make the ED eat the first page ;)

 

Remember the distance measurer is calculated as direct distance. They will need to do some extra miles yet.

 

With Puma taking the Southern option Camper didnt really have many options so it will be interesting to see how it fairs. It amazes me how Camper always seem to have better speed but cant really make good gains.

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I have been reading a few posts supposing that in same conditions tele has a speed edge to groupama...I would say not: groupama very similar speed or better

(at least with the same number of headsails of course! ;) )

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I have been reading a few posts supposing that in same conditions tele has a speed edge to groupama...I would say not: groupama very similar speed or better

(at least with the same number of headsails of course! ;) )

 

But the wind slightly better for g4 also (increasing along the route)

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I have been reading a few posts supposing that in same conditions tele has a speed edge to groupama...I would say not: groupama very similar speed or better

(at least with the same number of headsails of course! ;) )

 

But the wind slightly better for g4 also (increasing along the route)

 

I was not referring to last update situation. I was speaking in general, in the last days it seemed here on the forum many expecting that if tele could get close to groupama in the same wind it would have smoked them. In general it seems that (with same number of headsails) they have very similar speeds and it would be difficoult for tele to pass groupama in a drag race

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I have been reading a few posts supposing that in same conditions tele has a speed edge to groupama...I would say not: groupama very similar speed or better

(at least with the same number of headsails of course! ;) )

 

Current conditions are a dream for G4.

If it gets light again it'll favour Tele again.

G4 know they've got a problem, but not in the current conditions.

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Could somebody explain a bit the deal with this current ? A link ?

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oh oh camper at 0.2 Nm from puma

 

puma probably still much better positioned and upwind...still amazing race

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