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estarzinger

weather going south - for BJ and any others

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Yeah, I can already see that it's clocking around and it's hammering my beam.

Thank God for the extra lines.

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Clove Hitch came knocking, so we did a lap around the marina doing our Jim Cantore impersonations. I adjusted my bow line, and checked the neighbor.

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looks like the buoy at the entrance to the Delaware Bay may have found the barometer bottom:

 

post-8534-0-03928600-1351549863_thumb.png

 

Edit: and wind noticeably shifting at Thomas point light:

 

6:00pm 290 true

5:50pm 296

5:40pm 301

5:30pm 302

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Power out and a tree across the road. Thanks to awd and generac, we are doing fine. I will have to chainsaw myself to the office tomorrow.

 

LOL doubt your going to the office tomorrow.

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Power out and a tree across the road. Thanks to awd and generac, we are doing fine. I will have to chainsaw myself to the office tomorrow.

 

LOL doubt your going to the office tomorrow.

 

Critical design review on Wed. Prebriefing tomorrow. Also have to get a subK SOW to two firms tomorrow. Short of armageddon, I'll go in. Home office can't do it. They are on Long Island ant it is worse there.

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Power out and a tree across the road. Thanks to awd and generac, we are doing fine. I will have to chainsaw myself to the office tomorrow.

 

LOL doubt your going to the office tomorrow.

 

Critical design review on Wed. Prebriefing tomorrow. Also have to get a subK SOW to two firms tomorrow. Short of armageddon, I'll go in. Home office can't do it. They are on Long Island ant it is worse there.

You be careful, Sir.

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wind continuing to rotate, and baro looks like it may be angling in toward the bottom. I would say we are 1-2 hrs from the bottom (at Thomas point light), and expect winds to be at about 240-250 true just after that.

 

8:00 pm W ( 280 deg ) 43 kts

7:50 pm WNW ( 287 deg ) 46 kts

7:40 pm WNW ( 290 deg ) 46 kts

7:30 pm WNW ( 287 deg ) 45 kts

7:20 pm WNW ( 290 deg ) 42 kts

7:10 pm WNW ( 294 deg ) 42 kt

 

It has already bottomed out in the deltaville area.

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And here is a water level plot for Sandy Hook NY - about 9' above normal high, with perhaps a little rise left to go. That's on the low end of the prediction (which was 9-11') and the subways may just be ok.

 

post-8534-0-41609200-1351558050_thumb.png

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wind continuing to rotate, and baro looks like it may be angling in toward the bottom. I would say we are 1-2 hrs from the bottom (at Thomas point light), and expect winds to be at about 240-250 true just after that.

 

8:00 pm W ( 280 deg ) 43 kts

7:50 pm WNW ( 287 deg ) 46 kts

7:40 pm WNW ( 290 deg ) 46 kts

7:30 pm WNW ( 287 deg ) 45 kts

7:20 pm WNW ( 290 deg ) 42 kts

7:10 pm WNW ( 294 deg ) 42 kt

 

It has already bottomed out in the deltaville area.

 

Last couple of ticks on the barometer have been upward, now reading 978.4

 

Though it's windier, but that could be a factor with it coming from a direction where I'm more exposed.

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wind continuing to rotate, and baro looks like it may be angling in toward the bottom. I would say we are 1-2 hrs from the bottom (at Thomas point light), and expect winds to be at about 240-250 true just after that.

 

8:00 pm W ( 280 deg ) 43 kts

7:50 pm WNW ( 287 deg ) 46 kts

7:40 pm WNW ( 290 deg ) 46 kts

7:30 pm WNW ( 287 deg ) 45 kts

7:20 pm WNW ( 290 deg ) 42 kts

7:10 pm WNW ( 294 deg ) 42 kt

 

It has already bottomed out in the deltaville area.

 

Last couple of ticks on the barometer have been upward, now reading 978.4

 

Though it's windier, but that could be a factor with it coming from a direction where I'm more exposed.

 

Just noticed the old school Baro doesn't go that low...only goes to 980.

 

IMG_1007.JPG

 

 

This one goes to 11 though...

 

IMG_1006.JPG

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It's 5:10am. The wind is SW now, at around 30 kts. I don't feel a thing thanks to the cliff in front of me but the water is rising now that the wind is pushing water up into the bay. It'll probably just cover the docks and go back down, so no worries there. I have a lot of line to let out if need be.

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Over the past few days, you might have noticed higher than normal lows. It sure looks from here that that is the good folks at Conowingo Dam letting their levels down as conditions below them permit. SW wind is a factor, no question, but it doesn't account for this morning five foot surplus.

http://tidesonline.n...geographic.html

 

Take a look at the Chesapeake City data.

 

Edit: added image

post-17872-0-68035800-1351595968_thumb.png

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Power out and a tree across the road. Thanks to awd and generac, we are doing fine. I will have to chainsaw myself to the office tomorrow.

 

LOL doubt your going to the office tomorrow.

 

Critical design review on Wed. Prebriefing tomorrow. Also have to get a subK SOW to two firms tomorrow. Short of armageddon, I'll go in. Home office can't do it. They are on Long Island ant it is worse there.

You be careful, Sir.

 

No challenges. The one tree succumbed to chainsaws pretty quickly. Generator quit about 2200 (RPM Sensor fail. Nice that the display told me that in the middle of the storm). Power back on at 0800 so all we have to do is clean up the leaves and sticks. I am assuming the boat on the hard is OK as the yard hasn't called. I'll take a break at lunch and drive over.

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Power out and a tree across the road. Thanks to awd and generac, we are doing fine. I will have to chainsaw myself to the office tomorrow.

 

LOL doubt your going to the office tomorrow.

 

Critical design review on Wed. Prebriefing tomorrow. Also have to get a subK SOW to two firms tomorrow. Short of armageddon, I'll go in. Home office can't do it. They are on Long Island ant it is worse there.

You be careful, Sir.

 

No challenges. The one tree succumbed to chainsaws pretty quickly. Generator quit about 2200 (RPM Sensor fail. Nice that the display told me that in the middle of the storm). Power back on at 0800 so all we have to do is clean up the leaves and sticks. I am assuming the boat on the hard is OK as the yard hasn't called. I'll take a break at lunch and drive over.

Yeah, not looking bad here, either. We lost power from about 2030 to 0030 and were serenaded by out neighbor's gen. I thought of you. i also had the thought that if we have hear the goddamn thing, we might as well be running our own lights, so we may put one in. We're headed down to Nap now to survey the damage in Mil(pers) Creek. Hope your big boat is OK.

 

Our very best thoughts to everyone up North. What a mess!

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BJ. Any updates on the Deltaville area would be appreciated. Especially interested in the white cottage just to the east of Deltaville Marina (right on the water) and the boats in Jackson Creek at the FBYC docks. Thanks!

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It sounds like us Chessies are ok. Glad to hear it. Fingers crossed for our northern neighbors.

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BJ. Any updates on the Deltaville area would be appreciated. Especially interested in the white cottage just to the east of Deltaville Marina (right on the water) and the boats in Jackson Creek at the FBYC docks. Thanks!

 

We're not IN Fishing Bay, and we can't see it from here. We're not likely to move before tomorrow as it is still rainy, cold and too breezy want to bother with putting up the sail and canvas.

 

We will likely be over there tomorrow to pump out and take on water, if so I will let you know what I see.

 

Last night we heard a large trawler that parked there as we were leaving making noises about moving last night. Don't know if they did as they switched to 17 (a 1W channel) and I couldn't hear them after that.

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It sounds like us Chessies are ok. Glad to hear it. Fingers crossed for our northern neighbors.

 

My house is apparently unharmed, which is good news. Seems the eye split the difference between us on the boat and our house.

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Last night we heard a large trawler that parked there as we were leaving making noises about moving last night.

 

Those are also friends of ours (Kathy and Bradley). Nice folks. Say hi if you get a chance. They broke a snubber quite early in the blow but came thru well otherwise

 

So BJ, I can't remember, are you in the 1500? are you planning to do the11/4 departure schedule? The weather coming up is complex in the normal November sense - a bunch of systems moving across relatively quickly. There is nothing dangerous but some days will be better departures than others.

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Last night we heard a large trawler that parked there as we were leaving making noises about moving last night.

 

Those are also friends of ours (Kathy and Bradley). Nice folks. Say hi if you get a chance. They broke a snubber quite early in the blow but came thru well otherwise

 

So BJ, I can't remember, are you in the 1500? are you planning to do the11/4 departure schedule? The weather coming up is complex in the normal November sense - a bunch of systems moving across relatively quickly. There is nothing dangerous but some days will be better departures than others.

 

We chatted with them earlier - they were looking to park for the storm in Fishing Bay - "Sheer Insanity" or something was the boat name? Big yellow trawler looking thing. They radioed us to ask us what we were doing (pulling anchor) and where we were going (up the river) but I guess they just parked there since we didn't see them again. Very friendly seeming folks.

 

We're doing the Salty Dawgs, the departure has been delayed until at least Tuesday.

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All OK up here in RI, at least for the folks I know. Went to the yard today and they said it was a rough day yesterday - gusts over 70 kts and some of the bigger boats were moving so much that the stands had to be readjusted every 1/2 hour. Fortunately the wind shifted to the ESE right before high tide so the flood got to the top of the hill but didn't make it over and into the yard. Got power back around 11AM, although the yard was still out and much of the south coast is pretty beat up.

Since I take pictures of everything...

Still standing!

DSC04733.JPG

Boat looks great, some debris and a couple of roof shingles, but that's it:

DSC04732.JPG

Some interesting stuff exposed on the beach:

DSC04736.JPG

Curm's boat - nice and safe:

DSC04739.JPG

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Sheer Madness . . . they used to have an oyster about your size. We met them first in NZ.

 

OK, enjoy the salty dogs. . . . you will have weather info and departure date with them, so I will stop looking at the weather . . . .just makes me jealous - you can think of me sand blasting and painting when you are out there.

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Thanks for the pictures Brodie! I figured the yard would call me if there was a problem, but it's nice to have visual confirmation that Kristina and your lovely Sea Sprite are still in one piece. Thank goodness everyone appears to be well and to have weathered Sandy with little or no damage.

 

Here in Boston the storm was a non-event. There was some wind and rain yesterday, but we never lost power and today was 65 degrees and sunny with little or no wind. I guess the storm was too far south.

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Stamford is beat up, but nothing like Jersey and the City. Flooding a little worse than Irene. Made it close to the road in front of my fathers house. The pier at SYC is pretty well destroyed. Heard from a friend that Rowayton is pretty bad.

 

Up north where I live is just a jungle with trees and power lines down everywhere. Probably no power for a week. Mere are six ways out of my house. Non passable in the normal route, two passable with extended detours. Only downtown Stamford has power.

 

The good news is that the boats made it through unscathed on the hard.. We were lucky.

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so, did our contingent in and around Newport and the CT river survive?

 

Just back, on the MBTA commuter rail to Providence because all the Amtrak trains going south from Boston are sold out. Buses too (or aren't running). Lots of folks bound for JFK/EWR were re-routed to Logan but once they get to Boston..... all bets are off.

 

Brodie was so kind and drove over to Allen Hbr and when I landed at Logan there was a nice message from her saying "Home" looked fine. Thanks so much Brodie! This was nerve wracking to say the least. Later a friend of mine made a drive-by of both Greenwich Cove and Allen Hbr and both boats survived well. Tomorrow, I'll row out to both--- I'm sure there will be some "lessons learned" to report in here. Feeling very lucky.....

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so, did our contingent in and around Newport and the CT river survive?

 

Just back, on the MBTA commuter rail to Providence because all the Amtrak trains going south from Boston are sold out. Buses too (or aren't running). Lots of folks bound for JFK/EWR were re-routed to Logan but once they get to Boston..... all bets are off.

 

Brodie was so kind and drove over to Allen Hbr and when I landed at Logan there was a nice message from her saying "Home" looked fine. Thanks so much Brodie! This was nerve wracking to say the least. Later a friend of mine made a drive-by of both Greenwich Cove and Allen Hbr and both boats survived well. Tomorrow, I'll row out to both--- I'm sure there will be some "lessons learned" to report in here. Feeling very lucky.....

 

That's terrific.

 

We have friends with a boat in Southport. The floating docks were apparently within 6" of the top of the pilings but end up being fine.

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My boat's in a shed, so is fine, thanks for asking Estar. Glad to hear so many others' boats weathered well too.

 

I was surprised that the surge in Narragansett bay in places was higher than with Irene.

 

Just got the internet back at our house outside Boston. Lost a few trees on our property but no harm done. Two pines and an oak that we'll burn in the fireplace.

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OK, finally made it back--who knew it would take two days to make it from Logan to Kingston? (had left my car at the station there)

 

I was able to make it out to one of the two boats today to check on things up close. The boat in Allen Harbor (Quonset Point area) is just fine and looks like nothing at all happened while I was away. It was getting dark after work and I didn't have time to go out to the boat in Greenwich Cove but she appears to be floating on her lines...

 

They say that God looks out for small children and idiots--- I often qualify on both counts-- and I'm feeling very, very lucky. It was a bit of a Gilligan's Island type scenario as I THOUGHT I was just going away on a routine short trip and checked the weather forecasts before leaving as I always do. Perhaps the first lesson here is that I was a dumbass to make any assumptions about the weather in October... Regardless, I did not remove the sails on either boat.... The smaller boat had a mainsail flaked and tied to the boom with a sunbrella cover snapped over it and the larger boat had both a roller furling jib and a main in a "stack pack" on the boom. Once I learned of the possiblity of the storm from Evans' first post (thank you Evans for alerting all of us so early), I was boarding a plane at JFK and could only send off some e-mails to a friend and my daughter (who was in town for Saturday before leaving on Sunday). The two of them went out to the larger boat and:

 

1) removed the anchor from the anchor roller on the bowsprit--- this was a recommendation I picked up from one of MaineSail's wonderful "how to" posts on his site. Last year during Irene, I remember watching one of my boats pitch pretty violently and suspected the scenario he talks about (the mooring pennant sawing on the protruding anchor during extreme pitching) was a possibility.

 

2) wrapped the roller furled jib very tightly with an extra dockline-- somewhere on CA this had been discussed just recently. Of course striking the jib would have been preferred but my friend and daughter really had limited time and it was a blessing they were able to help out at all in my absence.

 

3) wrapped the main/stackpack very tightly and then lowered the boom until it was resting on the cockpit coaming and then lashed the boom down tightly in this position.

 

4) ran a safety line from the padeye for the inner forestay (not currently installed) through the now empty anchor roller to the mooring chain itself (not to the pennant or the ball but to the chain on the underside of the ball).

 

I had already rigged up a double-bridle system to the pennant with fire hose chafing protection at both the chocks and lower down on the bridles where they contact the bobstay when the boat swings (this particular boat "hunts" quite a bit at anchor). As a side note/question, I wonder whether these bridles have been compromised by all the shock loading they must have endured during the wind and surge?

 

In the final analysis, perhaps I just got lucky and there was not as much wind in my location as in others. I don't know. I do know that I learned some valuable tips from folks here on CA and that my daughter and friend were able to implement those tips very quickly.

 

Thanks for the learning provided on this site and thanks too for those who inquired about me and/or events here on the bay. It was surreal being away for the whole thing while having two boats riding it out and no way to check on them.... like I said about idiots and small children...

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Just fyi for those south bound . . . this is the forecast pic for 11/7. You will either want to be well out to sea (east of 65w) or be ready to heave-to for a day or in port. Its fast moving, so will clear out quickly.

 

post-8534-0-98882300-1351815756_thumb.jpg

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small bubble low crossing the track on11/5, with the bigger low still scheduled for 11/7. Both tracking NE, both moving pretty quickly, neither all that deep but with reasonable strong winds (unfavorable direction on the eastern side) and energy fields around them. The colors in the charts below are CAPE (eg atmospheric energy level, blue low, red/orange high) which is an indicator of squalls and thunder cells.

 

post-8534-0-51887400-1351866712_thumb.jpg

 

post-8534-0-84367000-1351866713_thumb.jpg

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small bubble low crossing the track on11/5, with the bigger low still scheduled for 11/7. Both tracking NE, both moving pretty quickly, neither all that deep but with reasonable strong winds (unfavorable direction on the eastern side) and energy fields around them. The colors in the charts below are CAPE (eg atmospheric energy level, blue low, red/orange high) which is an indicator of squalls and thunder cells.

 

115.jpg

 

117.jpg

 

Weather window looks like either get out early Sunday and put the pedal down for 24 straight and hope to get clear, or wait until later next week. That isn't really an option if you can't sustain 6-7 knots of boat sped through Tuesday.

 

We're liking the next Thursday/Friday window - some people headed out Sunday are still expecting to take a pounding. Just not a big one.

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It looks good right now. Sunday doesn't look that great.

 

Yes, I would have left today. I think I mentionned 11/2 several times above :)

 

Agreed sunday would not be my choice. You get pounded on monday and then again on wed, unless you have real serious boat speed.

 

 

 

Weather window looks like either get out early Sunday and put the pedal down for 24 straight and hope to get clear, or wait until later next week. That isn't really an option if you can't sustain 6-7 knots of boat sped through Tuesday.

 

We're liking the next Thursday/Friday window - some people headed out Sunday are still expecting to take a pounding. Just not a big one.

 

If you can't leave today, that's what I would be doing.

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It looks good right now. Sunday doesn't look that great.

 

Yes, I would have left today. I think I mentionned 11/2 several times above :)

 

Agreed sunday would not be my choice. You get pounded on monday and then again on wed, unless you have real serious boat speed.

 

 

 

Weather window looks like either get out early Sunday and put the pedal down for 24 straight and hope to get clear, or wait until later next week. That isn't really an option if you can't sustain 6-7 knots of boat sped through Tuesday.

 

We're liking the next Thursday/Friday window - some people headed out Sunday are still expecting to take a pounding. Just not a big one.

 

If you can't leave today, that's what I would be doing.

 

Very strange, how did B.J. Porter become J.B. Porter?

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It will be interesting to see what the 1500 does. They are scheduled to depart on the 4th (Sunday) "weather dependant".

 

Haven't heard yet. We have a couple of boats leaving, and some people on the fence. Which amounts to maybe 4 boats leaving at most.

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I saw lots of wrapped sails that survived hurricane Charley, Anomaly. It really does work. In some cases, a bit of jib up above reach would still manage to unroll, but the damage to those sails and boats was nothing compared to ones that were just left to fend for themselves.

 

In some cases, there was such a cocoon around the mainsail that it did make me wonder why not just remove it. It had to take longer to tie it up like that and even tightly tied it's a lot more windage than a bare boom. Most booms are pretty easily removable, for that matter.

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I saw lots of wrapped sails that survived hurricane Charley, Anomaly. It really does work. In some cases, a bit of jib up above reach would still manage to unroll, but the damage to those sails and boats was nothing compared to ones that were just left to fend for themselves.

 

In some cases, there was such a cocoon around the mainsail that it did make me wonder why not just remove it. It had to take longer to tie it up like that and even tightly tied it's a lot more windage than a bare boom. Most booms are pretty easily removable, for that matter.

 

I'd guess mindset. "I've never taken the main off and I'm not sure how to" Eayser for some just to wrap the sail in rope and hope for the best.

This happened within a mile of my boat:

 

 

I went and checked her at about the time that vid was taken. Bailing twine would have held her to the dock. Furling headsail up and main under sail cover. No prep. No damage.

 

I didn't have time to prep the boat for that storm. I was lucky.

The worst wind hit at low tide, We have up to 5 meters of it. I was lucky.

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The 11/5 low has weakened in the forecast (and moved just a little later), and is now shown to be 'only' a pretty strong frontal passage.

 

post-8534-0-27925600-1351952096_thumb.jpg

 

However, the 11/7 low is now significantly stronger.

 

post-8534-0-86522500-1351951693_thumb.jpg

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The 11/5 low has weakened in the forecast (and moved just a little later), and is now shown to be 'only' a pretty strong frontal passage.

 

115.jpg

 

However, the 11/7 low is now significantly stronger.

 

117.jpg

 

Reports from the people that left yesterday are that they got through the Gulf Stream OK, but got pasted with squalls and 50+ winds after that. Their comment was we should be happy we are here, not out there...

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1500 news:

"Due to a change in the weather, the Rally Office decided this morning to forego the traditional starting line, instead opting for a 'rolling start' immediately following today's Skipper's Briefing in the Dockside Ballroom. Rumors swirled yesterday during the safety demonstrations as the team in Hampton kept a close eye on the weather, and this morning it was confirmed that the yachts will be free to depart as early as noon today.

 

One of the major challenges in organizing a group departure from the US East Coast in the fall is the fickle weather pattern and finding a suitable window to cross the Gulf Stream. As the remnants of Hurricane Sandy move NE over the Canadian Maritimes, a winter weather pattern is forming over the midwest of the United States. By Wednesday, this low-pressure system is expected to be parked off the Chesapeake Bay, and the goal is to get the fleet out ahead of it and sailing south towards warmer weather and Trade Winds! The fleet has been supportive of the change in plans, and are aware that flexibility is key when planning an offshore passage from the Chesapeake. "

 

Everyone start taking your seasick meds before you leave! Low comming thru on monday and then on wed!

 

 

Current forecast is for a nice high pressure with favorable winds settling in on friday. That just beyond the range of usual forecast accuracy, but at least its starting to look decent.

 

post-8534-0-26016800-1351973275_thumb.jpg

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Glad to hear most made it thru OK...

 

Northern end of Barnegat Bay was not the best place to be Monday night...

 

Here's the "BEFORE" at my place...

 

sandy1.jpg

 

And the "AFTER", Tuesday morning... the water had probably receded about 18 inches by this time, from the high surge after midnight...

 

SandyTuesAM.jpg

 

I got about 4-5 inches of water in my living room... To give an idea how extraordinary this surge was, my neighbor's house across the lagoon was originally built in '48, and has NEVER had baywater inside, he wound up with about 4 feet... My outside guest room visible in the corner of the pic probably got about 3 feet, and the wave action inside that room was amazing, a lot of stuff I'd stored up high wound up getting knocked down... At midnight, my floating dock had long been torn from its attachment to the bulkhead, and my boat was pitching like it was anchored out in the bay, the only thing to diminish the waves rolling up the bay were the 8-10 houses being destroyed to the south of me...

 

All in all, I was incredibly lucky... pretty close to total devastation around here, I imagine my boat was one of very few to come thru unscathed, not even a scratch...

 

The breaches in the barrier beach is likely what did me in, the water usually has a long way to come down from either Manasquan Inlet to the N, or Barnegat to the south... But when new breaches occur like this one at Mantoloking, just a couple of miles away from my location, a LOT more water is gonna come in in a hurry. It was literally like watching a bathtub fill up, haven't seen anything like it other than a flood I was caught in on the Erie Canal years ago...

 

Homes-sit-in-ruin-at-the--005.jpg

 

The Jersey Shore has been changed forever, no question... It will be years before this area looks anything close to what it was, again...

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What a sobering post Jon. Almost speechless here. About three years ago, I brought a boat up from Florida and still remember the lovely sunny, breezy day we sailed along the Jersey Shore. Heart-breaking to think how much of what we saw is simply gone.

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My very best wishes to you and your neighbors, Jon.

 

If you'll pardon my curiosity in the aftermath of a disaster, do you know what the surge was in your area in '38? People are making comparisons, but the storms were much different, from what I know. '38 was a very fast moving, strong hurricane moving N, where what distinguished Sandy seems to be its large area and that it moved W, piling up a lot of water for E facing parts of the coast.

 

People still talk a lot about what was before '38 around here.

 

Please let us know if there's any way we can help.

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Damn, Jon sorry to hear and see that. Let us know if we can help in any way. Your boat must have a lucky charm; you do at least have that one little bright spot.

 

Weather forecast for the week are basically unchanged.

 

Frontal system crossing on Monday with squalls.

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Large low on Wednesday, that will put strong headwinds across the entire route. This will be a bitch. Time to just heave-to for a day. I hope we don't lose any of the fleet in this.

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And a high pressure system filling in at the end of the week. The trick will be to leave just at the right time - let the gulf stream calm down a bit from the Wed low but get out in front of the high so you don't get stuck in the light center winds (or the easterlies underneath it).

post-8534-0-09087900-1352036889_thumb.jpg

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What an 'interesting' season for Atlantic weather!

 

The short term situation is essentially the same.

 

There will be a frontal system with a band of squally weather across the route south today and tnight.

 

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The bigger low moves across on the 7th (wed). It is a bit weaker than in previous forecasts, but will still create uncomfortable head winds on its eastern side.

 

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On the 8th, the center of the low has moved off the track but it is still pulling head winds, and a secondary low has fomed on the track. Its not strong, but these often pack some nasty squalls.

 

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On the 9th, things have mostly cleaned up and a high pressure is pushing in. This looks like the departure date - leaving as early as you dare.

 

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That's pushing the limits of forecast accuracy, so the rest is very speculative, but still worth looking at as the model's best guess . . .

 

By the 12th, the high has pushed north and there are ENE winds across the track. This suggests for routing that getting a bit of Easting in the bag would be useful.

 

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And then the question is what is the next major system that will break that easterly patterns? The model's initial answer to that is a bit discouraging (but note this is way way out in forecast accuracy and is low probability . . . a tropical low forming and pushing north. It's not very deep and is weak in this model output but something to keep an eye on.

 

post-61520-0-54444100-1352123483_thumb.jpg

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This seems as good a place as any to post this question:

Is the insurance mandated late departure a good idea?

I am *at least* as afraid of winter gales as hurricanes, if not more so. Nothing seems a worse nightmare to me than being pinned against Hatteras by a winter Nor'Easter. Not only is it very dangerous, but you get to freeze your balls off and THEN get killed :o It seems to me that we have years with essentially no gap at all between hurricanes and winter gales. Given the improved hurricane forecasting we have now, I might rather take my chances earlier in the year and get myself south and across the Stream in warmer and better weather. As a matter of fact, all my Stream crossings have been in the mid-June/late-July time frame.

 

If I were just going and not part of a race/rally, I would also be very tempted to take the ICW to Wilmington or go straight out to Bermuda and wait there for my next good window. YMMV and I am not a weather forecaster. My advice has not been shown by the FDA to cure any disease :P

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This is the current Expedition routing for a departure 11/9 12z, going out 35nm east of the GC route.. Passage time 6 days 18 hrs - I have used a 'slow' polar (a cal 40) as I doubt BJ is going to br driving the boat super hard. I personally would go a bit further east just to have some in the bag.

 

post-61520-0-77923200-1352146032_thumb.jpg

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Damn, Jon sorry to hear and see that. Let us know if we can help in any way. Your boat must have a lucky charm; you do at least have that one little bright spot.

 

Weather forecast for the week are basically unchanged.

 

Frontal system crossing on Monday with squalls.

115.jpg

 

Large low on Wednesday, that will put strong headwinds across the entire route. This will be a bitch. Time to just heave-to for a day. I hope we don't lose any of the fleet in this.

117.jpg

 

And a high pressure system filling in at the end of the week. The trick will be to leave just at the right time - let the gulf stream calm down a bit from the Wed low but get out in front of the high so you don't get stuck in the light center winds (or the easterlies underneath it).

119.jpg

 

1500 is out there, hope they don't get pasted by that low. We've got a handful of boats on the way, hopefully they all stay clear.

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Friday looks pretty good, if it holds. Routing advises sailing to the east of rum by 150 miles in 15~20 true behind the beam. Could be a quick trip.

 

That's what we're getting. GS seems to be flowing more East, should get into there with 15k N winds, maybe.

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Forecasts pretty much the same.

 

Playing with routing a little . . . The lighter red line is the pure optimized route = 7d 6hrs 30 mins, but it has the wind forward for the last 3 days. In the bold red route I forced it to go further east = 7d 7hrs 54 mins, but the wind is never forward of 85 degrees - a much more pleasant cruising route, and gives you more 'upwind in the bag' and options if the forecast changes.

 

post-8534-0-93397400-1352207498_thumb.jpg

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Forecasts pretty much the same.

 

Playing with routing a little . . . The lighter red line is the pure optimized route = 7d 6hrs 30 mins, but it has the wind forward for the last 3 days. In the bold red route I forced it to go further east = 7d 7hrs 54 mins, but the wind is never forward of 85 degrees - a much more pleasant cruising route, and gives you more 'upwind in the bag' and options if the forecast changes.

 

1106.jpg

 

Chris Parker yesterday was suggesting going due East to enter the stream around 37N. At that point it's flowing almost East so it will push you from behind until you exit and start going SSE. Winds then will be a little more aft and reachy.

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Chris Parker yesterday was suggesting going due East to enter the stream around 37N. At that point it's flowing almost East so it will push you from behind until you exit and start going SSE. Winds then will be a little more aft and reachy.

 

Basically two routes across the GS:

 

The Black route, which I guess is what Chris is suggesting, certainly gets you east as fast as possible, but it does take you quite a ways off the GC track, and it also keeps you in the GS for quite a ways (possibly bumpy!).

 

The Red route is the quickest and cleanest crossing of the GS and is essentially right on the GS track (so no extra distance).

 

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I personally would prefer the red route, unless the forecast says you really need/want to get immediately as far east as possible. Best to make that decision the night before departure with the best/latest forecast.

 

I will be curious if you heard from any of the boats out there today. The forecast says the sustained winds should not be too high, but it might be squally and it might be forward.

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But, is the red route going to be a rough ride?

 

Red should be smoother than black - wind more behind, and faster thru the gulf stream.

 

The stream is usually bumpy, and more so with any northerly in the wind.

 

Here is an optimized routing that uses both wind & current gribs (the arrows shown are the current gribs). This at least agrees that going straight east for that east flowing piece of the GS does not pay. It is sort of splitting the difference - GS entry at 36 12N. And this is already with my route fudge to force it to go further east to keep the wind angles nice for the finish. I think the general rule in Bermuda races is that going more than 30-50nm from the GC route rarely pays off.

 

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Just as a caution . . . there is an aspect of GIGO in this optimized routing stuff. The gribs need to be accurate and the boat polars need to be accurate. I really use it to see if it suggests options I had not thought of, rather than a specific route to follow. And in this case it does not seem to be producing anything different than what would would see by just looking at the weather forecast.

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Ok, I see now.

 

What if you don't know the boat's polars? How hard is it to calculate a good crossing then?

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Ok, I see now.

 

What if you don't know the boat's polars? How hard is it to calculate a good crossing then?

 

Ajax . . .

 

the simple answer is: you don't need a routing program to get to Maine, and usually the fastest route is pretty near to a straight line.

 

But . . .

 

the routing programs are only interesting when the route is long enough that there is 'weather' in between you and the destination.

 

As to polars - the programs all come with a collection of them. You pick the one closest to your boat, and modify it until it is a decent fit.

 

The weather gribs are essentially always wrong in any case, so spending a lot of time fine tuning the polar is usually not worthwhile.

 

The output always has to be taken with a large grain of salt. The folks I know who do well in the Bermuda race look at them but don't pay all that much attention to them.

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Oh, I realize that this doesn't really apply to Maine, but I still want to know how it all works. :)

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Ok, I see now.

 

What if you don't know the boat's polars? How hard is it to calculate a good crossing then?

 

Ajax . . .

 

the simple answer is: you don't need a routing program to get to Maine, and usually the fastest route is pretty near to a straight line.

 

But . . .

 

the routing programs are only interesting when the route is long enough that there is 'weather' in between you and the destination.

 

As to polars - the programs all come with a collection of them. You pick the one closest to your boat, and modify it until it is a decent fit.

 

The weather gribs are essentially always wrong in any case, so spending a lot of time fine tuning the polar is usually not worthwhile.

 

The output always has to be taken with a large grain of salt. The folks I know who do well in the Bermuda race look at them but don't pay all that much attention to them.

 

Of course from what I can see the polars assume a crew of burly AC caliber sailors tweaking the boat to within an inch of it's life on every point of sail...so my mileage varies a little from the polars.

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Of course from what I can see the polars assume a crew of burly AC caliber sailors tweaking the boat to within an inch of it's life on every point of sail...so my mileage varies a little from the polars.

 

This is what I have been using for the routing on this thread - the stock cal40 polar - I think you should beat this on a reach, but be about here on a run and close hauled.

 

post-8534-0-28657000-1352244116_thumb.jpg

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I used our cruising polars but the boat will sit on 10's with little effort. Pushing the boat into the high teens means we sail with very highly loaded gear and the terror associated with it.

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The forecast continues to be remarkably stable - thats good news - low probability of big surprises.

 

Here is a close up of the start - bold line incorporates both wind and current gribs,unbold (and slightly further south) is using only the wind. 14nm max difference. GS entry at about 36 17N 74W (bold route using the current data)

 

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And the overall route, including my fudge (near the end) to force the last part of the leg a bit further east. 7days 9 hrs, 174 nm/day, average speed = 7.3kts. If I use a j160 polar instead, the route is very close to the same but in 5days 21hrs. That's good also (that the routes are close to the same using different boat speeds) - means you can just get out there and relax, and not be trying to meet any minimum speed or fussing with the route.

 

post-8534-0-59815300-1352311785_thumb.jpg

 

and the details of the route - nice wind speeds (probably if anything a bit light for BJ's boat) and nice angles.

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Sounds like the 1500 fleet had the expected bumpy weather, and that the actual conditions are matching the models pretty well. So far, all of BJ's decision making (Sandy anchorage and departure window) are looking smart!