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Milo Christensen

Crossing the "red line" in Syria - or not

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If one 'dithers' long enough, the situation spirals completely out of control. I can just see the video games coming out in time for Christmas. American Special Forces fighting with Al Qaeda against Assad's tribal fighters and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Fuckit, it's hopeless. Neutron bomb time in the name of ending the suffering?

 

Iran sends 4,000 elite troops to support Assad. We send 'small arms and ammunition' to the 'moderate' forces fighting Assad, Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Guards, the 'extremist' rebels, and who knows who else.

What should we be doing instead?

Continue to make brave statements while cowering under the bed? Let the death count spiral upwards past a 100,000? Create more and more refugees? Have less and less infrastructure and livable housing?

I don't think we can afford to be involved in the Syrian mess.

 

What do you think the US should do?

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An example of what is reported to be fairly typical in GB right now. Scan the article, and then look at the comments.

 

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/06/on-syria-cameron-should-be-the-heir-to-blair.html

 

 

Cameron, and all the Tory pundits who try to cheer-lead for getting involved, are getting hammered. Putin scored huge with that cannibal remark, meaning he is now far more in tune with British public opinion than Cameron is.

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If one 'dithers' long enough, the situation spirals completely out of control. I can just see the video games coming out in time for Christmas. American Special Forces fighting with Al Qaeda against Assad's tribal fighters and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Fuckit, it's hopeless. Neutron bomb time in the name of ending the suffering?

 

Iran sends 4,000 elite troops to support Assad. We send 'small arms and ammunition' to the 'moderate' forces fighting Assad, Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Guards, the 'extremist' rebels, and who knows who else.

What should we be doing instead?

Continue to make brave statements while cowering under the bed? Let the death count spiral upwards past a 100,000? Create more and more refugees? Have less and less infrastructure and livable housing?

 

Why are you answering a question with a question? You obviously disagree with the current Course of action (COA) by the Prez. I'm asking you directly what YOU think we SHOULD be doing instead. Its a really pretty simple and straighforward question......

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Gentlemen, there will be no fighting in the War Room!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-18/pentagon-shoots-down-kerry-s-syria-airstrike-plan.html

 

 

Twenty years ago, in a debate over the war in Bosnia, Madeleine Albright, then the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, issued a challenge to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell. Albright wanted the U.S. to confront an aggressive Serbia; Powell and the Pentagon were hesitant. Albright grew frustrated: “What’s the point of having this superb military that you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?” Albright asked. Powell later said that he thought Albright was going to give him an aneurysm.

 

Flash-forward to this past Wednesday. At a principals meeting in the White House situation room, Secretary of State John Kerry began arguing, vociferously, for immediate U.S. airstrikes against airfields under the control of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime -- specifically, those fields it has used to launch chemical weapons raids against rebel forces.

It was at this point that the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the usually mild-mannered Army General Martin Dempsey, spoke up, loudly. According to several sources, Dempsey threw a series of brushback pitches at Kerry, demanding to know just exactly what the post-strike plan would be and pointing out that the State Department didn’t fully grasp the complexity of such an operation.

Dempsey informed Kerry that the Air Force could not simply drop a few bombs, or fire a few missiles, at targets inside Syria: To be safe, the U.S. would have to neutralize Syria’s integrated air-defense system, an operation that would require 700 or more sorties. At a time when the U.S. military is exhausted, and when sequestration is ripping into the Pentagon budget, Dempsey is said to have argued that a demand by the State Department for precipitous military action in a murky civil war wasn’t welcome.

Military Wariness

Officials with knowledge of the meeting say that Kerry gave as good as he got, and that the discussion didn’t reach aneurysm-producing levels. But it was, in diplomatic parlance, a full and frank vetting of the profound differences between State and Defense on Syria. Dempsey was adamant: Without much of an entrance strategy, without anything resembling an exit strategy, and without even a clear-eyed understanding of the consequences of an American airstrike, the Pentagon would be extremely reluctant to get behind Kerry’s plan.

As we know now, the Pentagon’s position is in sync with President Barack Obama’s. The outcome of the meeting last week was to formalize a decision made weeks ago to supply the more moderate elements of the Syrian opposition with small arms and ammunition. The assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies that Assad had used chemical weapons against small pockets of rebels -- confirming those made several months earlier by the intelligence agencies of U.S. friends in Europe and the Middle East -- forced the administration to make a gesture of support for the opposition.

Members of the White House national security team, who tend to be more hawkish than Obama or Dempsey (though not as quite as militant as Kerry), had been arguing that, in the words of Tony Blinken, the deputy national security adviser, “superpowers don’t bluff.” Once Obama had drawn a red line around chemical weapons, the White House had no choice but to take some sort of action.

Blinken was clever to use the word “bluff” in his arguments to the president, implicitly linking his posture on Syria to his position on Iran’s nuclear program. Last year, in an interview with me on the subject of Iran, Obama said, “As president of the United States, I don’t bluff.” On Iran, he has lived up to his words, but he was in danger -- and remains in danger -- of being seen as a bluffer on Syria.

No Bluffing

What is so odd about Dempsey’s adamant opposition to Kerry’s aggressive proposals is that it hasn’t previously been made public. Obama told Charlie Rose this week that he is worried about sliding down the slippery slope toward greater intervention in Syria. Having Dempsey openly in his corner would be useful to him, but the administration hasn’t made hay over the Pentagon’s opposition to airstrikes. (When I asked the Pentagon for official comment, Dempsey’s spokesman would only say that he would not “discuss classified internal deliberations,” though he went on to say that the National Security Council principals “routinely debate a wide range of options to include how the military can and should support a comprehensive, regional approach to this conflict.”)

One senior administration official explained it this way: The White House doesn’t want Dempsey to make an enthusiastic case on “Meet the Press” against intervention, just in case Obama one day decides to follow Kerry’s advice and get more deeply involved. At that point, Dempsey's arguments against greater involvement could come back to haunt the administration.

The decision to provide small arms to the Syrian opposition has made no one happy -- not the rebels, who understand that these quite-possibly ineffective weapons will take many months to reach them; not Kerry, who, while arguing that these shipments may become a “force multiplier” in the conflict, thinks that only a show of American air power will convince Assad and his Hezbollah allies that the U.S. is making a serious attempt to level a playing field that has been tilting their way for some time; and not the Pentagon, which thinks that Obama, despite saying that he is wary of the slippery slope, might be pushed down that slope anyway, by interventionists on his team or by events on the ground.

It is possible, even for those of us who have been inclined toward intervention, to have a great deal of sympathy for Dempsey’s position. There are those in the Pentagon who think that the State Department has romanticized the Syrian opposition. What diplomats see as a civil war featuring bands of poorly armed moderates struggling to free themselves from the grip of an evil dictator, the generals see as a religious war between Hezbollah and al-Qaeda. Why would the U.S. risk taking sides in a battle between two loathed terror organizations? Memories of Iraq, too, are fresh in the minds of Dempsey and his colleagues.

On the other hand, a Kerry partisan told me, U.S. intervention in Syria would not necessarily have to look like U.S. intervention in Iraq. When I mentioned the Albright-Powell exchange of 20 years ago, he pointed out something obvious: President Bill Clinton eventually decided to use air power in the Balkans. And it brought the Serbian government to its knees.

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yes you do.... :ph34r:

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If one 'dithers' long enough, the situation spirals completely out of control. I can just see the video games coming out in time for Christmas. American Special Forces fighting with Al Qaeda against Assad's tribal fighters and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Fuckit, it's hopeless. Neutron bomb time in the name of ending the suffering?

 

Iran sends 4,000 elite troops to support Assad. We send 'small arms and ammunition' to the 'moderate' forces fighting Assad, Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Guards, the 'extremist' rebels, and who knows who else.

What should we be doing instead?

Continue to make brave statements while cowering under the bed? Let the death count spiral upwards past a 100,000? Create more and more refugees? Have less and less infrastructure and livable housing?

 

Why are you answering a question with a question? You obviously disagree with the current Course of action (COA) by the Prez. I'm asking you directly what YOU think we SHOULD be doing instead. Its a really pretty simple and straighforward question......

Mongo's first sentence is rather ironic and more than a bit hypocritical, is it not, given his reluctance to take a stand.

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No reason to ask anymore, we know the Squirrel, the Jack, and other RWNM parrots will refuse to take a stand.

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Guest One of Five

what stand is that?

 

BTW Mark, thanks for posting that,,, good for Dempsey.

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yes you do.... :ph34r:

 

What a clever retort, for a civil servant...

edited for accuracy.

about as civil as civil as the "civil" war.... :ph34r: war is a racket.

 

 

 

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The interesting thing in all of this is that the Air Force is in no position to go in and kick the door down on Assad's IAD's right now. Sequestration has all but castrated the active duty AF. 33 Air Force Fighter Sq's have been grounded, they literally have not turned a wheel, since March or Apr. My former Squadron in NC, has been grounded since the sequester was announced. And they are a front line attack Sq. Or were.....

 

The ones that are flying are a shell of their usual capability. Skills in that high tech a profession literally can atrophy in a few days or a week of not flying. About the only ones up to speed are the units that are already deployed. Unless we pulled every airplane from Afghanistan, S Korea, and other areas where they are actually doing daily REAL missions - there ain't no one left to do a NFZ.

 

The training units are flying more than the combat units. Its madness.

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Guest One of Five

Then we simply pull them from South Korea and wherever else they are where there's a country that can do this for themselves.

 

For that matter, doesn't Saudi have an air force? Egypt? Jordan? Gulf States? Let them have a Sunni Air Force fly the No Fly Zone.

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Good lord no, how can we be the biggest, baddest ass mercenary force in the world if we let the client states do their own dirty work?

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Guest One of Five

I'd say I'm just fine with that. Same goes for South Korea and Europe.

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Yeah, me too

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Guest One of Five

I'd rather see that money spent here on the domestic economy and social benefits just like the Europeans have for fifty years.

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For that matter, doesn't Saudi have an air force? Egypt? Jordan? Gulf States? Let them have a Sunni Air Force fly the No Fly Zone.

 

I've been saying that for a while. And yes, the Gulf states have very good air forces (on paper). The best hardware the US and French sell......

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Then we simply pull them from South Korea and wherever else they are where there's a country that can do this for themselves.

 

For that matter, doesn't Saudi have an air force? Egypt? Jordan? Gulf States? Let them have a Sunni Air Force fly the No Fly Zone.

I suspect a lot of the AIPAC crowd are pushing Obama on this, but I'm not convinced Bibi is pushing for them to do it. They might be doing their own "thinking". Nagging for the US military to at war in the ME may have become reflexive.

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The interesting thing in all of this is that the Air Force is in no position to go in and kick the door down on Assad's IAD's right now. Sequestration has all but castrated the active duty AF. 33 Air Force Fighter Sq's have been grounded, they literally have not turned a wheel, since March or Apr. My former Squadron in NC, has been grounded since the sequester was announced. And they are a front line attack Sq. Or were.....

 

The ones that are flying are a shell of their usual capability. Skills in that high tech a profession literally can atrophy in a few days or a week of not flying. About the only ones up to speed are the units that are already deployed. Unless we pulled every airplane from Afghanistan, S Korea, and other areas where they are actually doing daily REAL missions - there ain't no one left to do a NFZ.

 

The training units are flying more than the combat units. Its madness.

 

The AF Chiefs new uniform doesn't inspire confidence.

 

33kvvow.jpg

 

Keystone-Kop/Kaptain Kangaroo mash-up?

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The interesting thing in all of this is that the Air Force is in no position to go in and kick the door down on Assad's IAD's right now. Sequestration has all but castrated the active duty AF. 33 Air Force Fighter Sq's have been grounded, they literally have not turned a wheel, since March or Apr. My former Squadron in NC, has been grounded since the sequester was announced. And they are a front line attack Sq. Or were.....

 

The ones that are flying are a shell of their usual capability. Skills in that high tech a profession literally can atrophy in a few days or a week of not flying. About the only ones up to speed are the units that are already deployed. Unless we pulled every airplane from Afghanistan, S Korea, and other areas where they are actually doing daily REAL missions - there ain't no one left to do a NFZ.

 

The training units are flying more than the combat units. Its madness.

 

The AF Chiefs new uniform doesn't inspire confidence.

 

33kvvow.jpg

 

Keystone-Kop/Kaptain Kangaroo mash-up?

Leader of the Band? anna one anna two anna

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The interesting thing in all of this is that the Air Force is in no position to go in and kick the door down on Assad's IAD's right now. Sequestration has all but castrated the active duty AF. 33 Air Force Fighter Sq's have been grounded, they literally have not turned a wheel, since March or Apr. My former Squadron in NC, has been grounded since the sequester was announced. And they are a front line attack Sq. Or were.....

 

The ones that are flying are a shell of their usual capability. Skills in that high tech a profession literally can atrophy in a few days or a week of not flying. About the only ones up to speed are the units that are already deployed. Unless we pulled every airplane from Afghanistan, S Korea, and other areas where they are actually doing daily REAL missions - there ain't no one left to do a NFZ.

 

The training units are flying more than the combat units. Its madness.

Maybe time to send in the armchair units....

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WASHINGTON -- In a sign of deepening U.S. involvement in the Syrian crisis, the United States is leaving 700 combat-equipped American military personnel in Jordan following the end of a joint U.S.-Jordanian training exercise, President Barack Obama told Congress Friday.

 

The decision brings to about 1,000 the number of U.S. troops now deployed in Jordan. It came a week after the White House announced that the United States would begin providing light arms to Syrian rebels fighting the regime of President Bashar Assad.

 

 

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/06/21/3464305/us-to-leave-700-troops-in-jordan.html#storylink=cpy

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Guest One of Five

So let them fly the "No-Fly" zone.

 

 

For that matter, doesn't Saudi have an air force? Egypt? Jordan? Gulf States? Let them have a Sunni Air Force fly the No Fly Zone.

 

I've been saying that for a while. And yes, the Gulf states have very good air forces (on paper). The best hardware the US and French sell......

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So let them fly the "No-Fly" zone.

 

 

For that matter, doesn't Saudi have an air force? Egypt? Jordan? Gulf States? Let them have a Sunni Air Force fly the No Fly Zone.

 

I've been saying that for a while. And yes, the Gulf states have very good air forces (on paper). The best hardware the US and French sell......

 

Didn't a Saudi prince get the first air to air kill of Gulf War One?

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So let them fly the "No-Fly" zone.

 

 

For that matter, doesn't Saudi have an air force? Egypt? Jordan? Gulf States? Let them have a Sunni Air Force fly the No Fly Zone.

 

I've been saying that for a while. And yes, the Gulf states have very good air forces (on paper). The best hardware the US and French sell......

 

Didn't a Saudi prince get the first air to air kill of Gulf War One?

 

No

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News update: Two Christians including a priest beheaded by foreign funded terrorist freedom fighters in Syria..... :ph34r:

http://www.liveleak....=b57_1372272008

warning: psychopathic

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exeuction.png

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Humanity is pretty amazing. Shit like that is beyond my comprehension.

 

Then there's the arse wipes with HJDS

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Humanity is pretty amazing. Shit like that is beyond my comprehension.

 

What should be beyond our comprehension is 100,000 dead and millions upon millions of refugees and displaced persons.

 

What should be psychopathic is the La-Z-Boy Leather Vibrating Recliner Commenting Army saying that it is none of our business, that they are just fine with 100,000 dead and an ongoing much larger situation that enables these kind of horrific abuses. But, what the heck, they should review some of the photographs from Vietnam.

 

Totally pisses me off when little pigs in lipstick post that kind of shit completely ignoring the desperate need of tens of millions of Syrians for action in a much broader humanitarian crisis.

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Humanity is pretty amazing. Shit like that is beyond my comprehension.

 

What should be beyond our comprehension is 100,000 dead and millions upon millions of refugees and displaced persons.

 

What should be psychopathic is the La-Z-Boy Leather Vibrating Recliner Commenting Army saying that it is none of our business, that they are just fine with 100,000 dead and an ongoing much larger situation that enables these kind of horrific abuses. But, what the heck, they should review some of the photographs from Vietnam.

 

Totally pisses me off when little pigs in lipstick post that kind of shit completely ignoring the desperate need of tens of millions of Syrians for action in a much broader humanitarian crisis.

 

What should we do?

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go get em squirrel. given the record of all foreign interventions in that part of the world - it's likely that this bloodletting is the least damaging alternative. How many innocent Iraqi's died liberating them from that other Bath'ist?

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You forgot the stage directions for the dialogue. In a high falsetto, handwringing, sobbing and moaning before and after - What should we do?

 

You can't answer a simple question. What's the matter with you?

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tuk-tuk posts a picture of two getting killed - extrajudicialliy is the newspeak term - but for a thousand days every day a 100 have died from bombs, bullets, gangrenous wounds, 3rd degree burns over 90% of the body, being buried alive in collapsing buildings, and on and on and on in all the slow, beautiful, painful ways to die in a war perpetrated by the state against it's own people. Why doesn't tuk-tuk post more pictures?

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You forgot the stage directions for the dialogue. In a high falsetto, handwringing, sobbing and moaning before and after - What should we do?

 

You can't answer a simple question. What's the matter with you?

 

This from the guy that posts gay porn as a rebuttal.

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exeuction.png

 

That, and the beheading videos make me sincerely question the wisdom of trying to help people who think that's OK to exercise authority over anything more important than a dung heap.

It's a moot point; we cannot afford another adventure at the present time, even if policing the world was the proper role for the US, which it is not. Stay out of it, and in the process, avoid being blamed for it.

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Guest One of Five

Oh yea - our "compassion" has gotten us into waaay too much trouble over the years. The only thing those pix and video say to me is stay the fuck out.

 

 

 

 

exeuction.png

 

That, and the beheading videos make me sincerely question the wisdom of trying to help people who think that's OK to exercise authority over anything more important than a dung heap.

It's a moot point; we cannot afford another adventure at the present time, even if policing the world was the proper role for the US, which it is not. Stay out of it, and in the process, avoid being blamed for it.

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Israel helping the same terrorists that want to wipe them off the map? Now I've seen it all.... :ph34r:

 

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Red line crossed again.... :ph34r:

 

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Unless we pulled every airplane from Afghanistan, S Korea, and other areas where they are actually doing daily REAL missions - there ain't no one left to do a NFZ.

 

Those are REAL missions? Funny, I thought we wasted 12 years mostly getting nothing done except spending trillions and installing the most corrupt drug dealing regime in the history of the world....

 

Are you now claiming that we need to spend those trillions all over the world to protect something or someone?

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Rebels re-defecting. Taking up Assad's amnesty offer.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10198632/Syria-disillusioned-rebels-drift-back-to-take-Assad-amnesty.html

 

Sounds like the offices that are handling it are busy.

 

Looks like Putin will be smiling.

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Rebels re-defecting. Taking up Assad's amnesty offer.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10198632/Syria-disillusioned-rebels-drift-back-to-take-Assad-amnesty.html

 

Sounds like the offices that are handling it are busy.

 

Looks like Putin will be smiling.

Good for Putin and peace. Bad for MIC, McCain and the rest of the war criminals..... :ph34r:

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Rebels re-defecting. Taking up Assad's amnesty offer.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10198632/Syria-disillusioned-rebels-drift-back-to-take-Assad-amnesty.html

 

Sounds like the offices that are handling it are busy.

 

Looks like Putin will be smiling.

Good for Putin and peace. Bad for MIC, McCain and the rest of the war criminals..... :ph34r:

 

Snowden will finally be a citizen of a peaceful nation...

:wacko:

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Pot calls kettle black...

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Pot calls tuk tuk a moron

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Nice try hypocrite...

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Is this one a red line?

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/07/us-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-idUSKBN0FC1U420140707

Two cylinders reportedly seized by Syrian government troops in an area controlled by armed opposition groups contained deadly sarin, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a letter to the U.N. Security Council published on Monday.

 

Ban said that on June 14, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) United Nations Joint Mission overseeing the destruction of Syria's chemical stockpile analyzed the contents of the cylinders.

 

"The Joint Mission confirmed that these contained sarin," said Ban's letter. The letter said the cylinders were "reportedly seized by the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic in August 2013 in an area reportedly under the control of armed opposition groups."

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Is this one a red line?

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/07/us-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-idUSKBN0FC1U420140707

Two cylinders reportedly seized by Syrian government troops in an area controlled by armed opposition groups contained deadly sarin, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a letter to the U.N. Security Council published on Monday.

 

Ban said that on June 14, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) United Nations Joint Mission overseeing the destruction of Syria's chemical stockpile analyzed the contents of the cylinders.

 

"The Joint Mission confirmed that these contained sarin," said Ban's letter. The letter said the cylinders were "reportedly seized by the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic in August 2013 in an area reportedly under the control of armed opposition groups."

 

To the contrary, Obummer wants to give them another 500m...coffee1.gif

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https://www.rt.com/news/325825-sarin-gas-syria-turkey/

Islamic State terrorists in Syria received all necessary materials to produce deadly sarin gas via Turkey, Turkish MP Eren Erdem has told RT, insisting there are grounds to believe a cover up has taken place.

 

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) member, Erdem, brought up the issue for public discussion in parliament last week, citing evidence from an abruptly-closed criminal case. He accused Ankara of failing to investigate Turkish supply routes used to provide terrorists with toxic sarin gas ingredients.

 

“There is data in this indictment. Chemical weapon materials are being brought to Turkey and being put together in Syria in camps of ISIS which was known as Iraqi Al Qaeda during that time," Erdem told RT.

 

Sarin gas is a military-grade chemical that was used in a notorious attack on Ghouta and several other neighborhoods near the Syrian capital of Damascus in 2013. The attacks were pinned on the Syrian leadership, who in turn agreed to get rid of all chemical weapons stockpiles under a UN-brokered deal amid an imminent threat of US intervention.

 

Addressing parliamentarians on Thursday, Erdem showed a copy of the criminal case number 2013/120 that was opened by the General Prosecutor's Office in the city of Adana in southern Turkey.

 

The investigation revealed that a number of Turkish citizens took part in negotiations with Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) representatives on the supply of sarin gas. Pointing to evidence cited in the criminal case, he said that wiretapped phone conversations proved that an Al-Qaeda militant, Hayyam Kasap, acquired sarin.

 

“These are all detected. There are phone recordings of this shipment like ‘don't worry about the border, we’ll take care of it' and we also see the bureaucracy is being used,” continued Erdem.

 

Based on the gathered evidence Adana authorities conducted raids and arrested 13 suspects in the case. But a week later, inexplicably, the case was closed and all the suspects immediately crossed the Turkish-Syrian border, Erdem said.

 

“About the shipment, Republic prosecutor of Adana, Mehmet Arıkan, made an operation and the related people were detained. But as far as I understand he was not an influential person in bureaucracy. A week after, another public prosecutor was assigned, took over the indictment and all the detainees were released. And they left Turkey crossing the Syrian border,” he said.

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Plausible but not certain.

 

The information here is the Russians are pissed off at the Turks and letting them know it. Only fair if their intent is to avenge the next Turkish "accident" with Turkish blood. The situation is ripe for escalation and therefor mixed messages are dangerous. Everything the Russians say about the Turks until tensions ease is highly likely to be nasty as all get out.

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A lot of what the Russians do is framed internally as an East West thing, reclaiming Russian greatness. This is my supposition but work with me on this. East West, Russia v USA is certainly easy for us and most likely easy for the Russians to see. But Russia v Turkey is different from Russia v NATO as that conflict stretches back before the USofA was even a Confederation of States.

 

So, leaving NATO and US completely out of this, what is going on with Russia and Turkey? Crimea and the Black Sea is armed to the hilt with anti-ship missile swarms. If you recall from the Cold War, we had Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey. The popular imagination has the Cold War being a stare down across the Berlin Wall. But this area is at least as volatile.

 

Are we looking at a looming Battle of Balaclava? Do the Russians really have a clue what they're doing? I don't think they do. They keep amping up tensions. Tupolev Tu-95s trolling off freaking Ireland. Dicking with Sweden.

 

I'm anything but a Putin fan but what is this asshole doing?

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Putin is working on halting the geographic spread of the US/Israel/saudi backed war, then will attack with financial war, the only thing the US understands.

 

BRICS will float a gold based economy. They have been buying madly. Then Dollar fucked. US fucked. Clocks ticking.

who_gives_a_shit_wall_clock.jpg?height=2

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Are we looking at a looming Battle of Balaclava? Do the Russians really have a clue what they're doing? I don't think they do. They keep amping up tensions. Tupolev Tu-95s trolling off freaking Ireland. Dicking with Sweden.

Ah, so Freedom of Navigation exercises are now "amping up tensions" and "dicking" with countries?

We'll need to keep that in mind.

I'm anything but a Putin fan but what is this asshole doing?

It is possible that not everything you have heard about Russia over the last few decades has been strictly accurate.

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A lot of what the Russians do is framed internally as an East West thing, reclaiming Russian greatness. This is my supposition but work with me on this. East West, Russia v USA is certainly easy for us and most likely easy for the Russians to see. But Russia v Turkey is different from Russia v NATO as that conflict stretches back before the USofA was even a Confederation of States.

 

So, leaving NATO and US completely out of this, what is going on with Russia and Turkey? Crimea and the Black Sea is armed to the hilt with anti-ship missile swarms. If you recall from the Cold War, we had Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey. The popular imagination has the Cold War being a stare down across the Berlin Wall. But this area is at least as volatile.

 

Are we looking at a looming Battle of Balaclava? Do the Russians really have a clue what they're doing? I don't think they do. They keep amping up tensions. Tupolev Tu-95s trolling off freaking Ireland. Dicking with Sweden.

 

I'm anything but a Putin fan but what is this asshole doing?

 

Russia, for good reason actually, has never trusted the 'west' when in comes to their motives but equally, Russia has never viewed themselves as 'Asian'. So they're torn. They actually WANT to be European but they want "respect", whatever that means. I've you've ever read Russian literature, they tend to be pragmatic, somewhat pessimistic, but ultimately fatalistic. A left over from their Orthodox Religious origins, hardened by frozen centuries of cold rolling. Turkey may own the old capital of eastern Roman Empire but Russia has always felt it owns the soul.

 

Russia WILL NOT allow NATO up against their borders. They will go to war for that. They will not loose control that way. Ukraine was desperately trying to join Europe in before 2017 but Putin simply took back Crimea last year instead. They played a weak hand - mostly because Europe led them on - and Putin punked em down. If the west of Ukraine wants to join Europe, that's "fine" but the East WILL become the buffer zone which is what's happening now.

 

Turkey controls the access to the Black Sea but Russia controls the Black Sea. That's the dynamic that occasionally gets tested. The fighting in Syria and Iraq are, in my mind, not actually part of the greater Turkish/Russian narrative YET. That again is about oil resources and transportation contracts (written about ad nauseaum elsewhere).

 

Things like the bombers are just a reminder. Are they 'provocative'? Personally I suspect they've been going on a long time and it's the media pushing a narrative to get clicks. Dog Whistles for those inclined to hear. The Chinese have been scheduling missile launch 'tests' for Christmas Eve every year for like a decade. You think they can't read a calendar? They're dicking around. And we do stuff like flying satellites over their bases. Countries do crap like that to each other. What good is having the biggest schlong if you can't smack someone with it occasionally? And yea, it's that simple. Childish - but simple.

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Thank C.

 

Love Russian lit. FWIW, I'd recommend The Possessed by Elif Batuman. I read The Idiot in HS and had a thoroughly HS understanding of it. But I did remember it. Batuman's reading of The Idiot was awesome. Fun writer; Stanford. I read Bulgakov's Master and Margerita and I was so proud of myself until I had a Russian girlfriend who patiently explained I really didn't get it at all; I thought fantasy; Russians saw it as heavily allegorical, their Animal Farm but they knew their backstory. The usual heavyweights. Prefer Tolstoy and Chekov.

 

The fighting in Syria and Iraq are, in my mind, not actually part of the greater Turkish/Russian narrative YET. I think yet just became now, nyet? This is the first Russian shoot down but they've been having sparks along that border for the whole of the Syrian Civil War. Putin has staked a lot on Syria. He gave up Libya way too easily.

 

You might be right about the 'provocation' getting too much press.

 

Still not impressed by Putin. He's no Merkle. He's no Obama. He's no whoever the fuck runs China. I rank him with Netanyahu, notable for his longevity.

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Thank C.

 

 

Still not impressed by Putin. He's no Merkle. He's no Obama. He's no whoever the fuck runs China. I rank him with Netanyahu, notable for his longevity.

 

Actually, that's probably a good analog with a healthy dose of Dick Cheney thrown in. Putin is ruthlessly pragmatic. Not quite 'Stalin' level but there's a sizable collection of body bags in his closet. The drop in oil prices will put a lot of pressure on him but I don't think it's 'critical' pressure yet. There would have to be a catalyst and more important, another horse in the race. I haven't followed Russian politics very closely but I don't know of any other horses who are even realistically in the starting gate today.

 

FWIW, one of the truly TRULY stupid things I heard came out of Saudi Arabia this weekend. Apparently one of their ministers essentially said they could "outlast" the Russians if it came down to it. To which, I remember Winston Churchill - "NEVER underestimate the Russian ability to suffer."

 

The Saudis are TOTALLY disillusion if they think they can 'outlast' the Russians in a battle of deprivations. DI-LOOS-SHUN-AL. If I'm a member of OPEC who actually needs oil revenue, I'm scared shitless and looking to cut a deal with SOMEONE. Shale Gas drillers, Exxon, SOMEONE to get the pumping slowed down.

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NEVER underestimate the Russian ability to suffer. Yep. Putin, ruthlessly pragmatic, yep. Strategically successful? Uh, no. Not really. You want strategically successful, that'd be the Chinese.

 

What does Putin have to show for all this? Sochi was incredibly vain. The Ukraine crisis pissed off the Euros. He's in a race to the bottom with the Saudis. His reserves are drying up. Squat. Team Red loves him which is amusing.

 

I'm also not a fan of the Sauds. Lexus driving goat herders. I am a fan of the Iranians, an ancient proud empire (but dump the mullahs). Kind of like the Turks. Fuck the Sauds and the Izzies.

 

Speaking of Sochi, the BRICS are spending like drunk sailors on the Olympics and World Cup.

 

Feels like we're in some sort of bubble.

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Looks like Putin wants to talk now. This has usually gotten kicked over to Lavrov.

Did you even read your own article? Kerry has chatted with them 22 times this year. Putin and Obama have met 3 times since September.

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Looks like Putin wants to talk now. This has usually gotten kicked over to Lavrov.

Did you even read your own article? Kerry has chatted with them 22 times this year. Putin and Obama have met 3 times since September.

 

This is Mr. Kerry's 20th meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, so far this year, and his second face-to-face with President Vladimir Putin.

 

Putin has been known to make Kerry wait for hours for a cursory meeting.

You may not see this as evidence that Russians want to talk. I do.

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A lot of what the Russians do is framed internally as an East West thing, reclaiming Russian greatness. This is my supposition but work with me on this. East West, Russia v USA is certainly easy for us and most likely easy for the Russians to see. But Russia v Turkey is different from Russia v NATO as that conflict stretches back before the USofA was even a Confederation of States.

 

So, leaving NATO and US completely out of this, what is going on with Russia and Turkey? Crimea and the Black Sea is armed to the hilt with anti-ship missile swarms. If you recall from the Cold War, we had Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey. The popular imagination has the Cold War being a stare down across the Berlin Wall. But this area is at least as volatile.

 

Are we looking at a looming Battle of Balaclava? Do the Russians really have a clue what they're doing? I don't think they do. They keep amping up tensions. Tupolev Tu-95s trolling off freaking Ireland. Dicking with Sweden.

 

I'm anything but a Putin fan but what is this asshole doing?

Russia, for good reason actually, has never trusted the 'west' when in comes to their motives but equally, Russia has never viewed themselves as 'Asian'. So they're torn. They actually WANT to be European but they want "respect", whatever that means. I've you've ever read Russian literature, they tend to be pragmatic, somewhat pessimistic, but ultimately fatalistic. A left over from their Orthodox Religious origins, hardened by frozen centuries of cold rolling. Turkey may own the old capital of eastern Roman Empire but Russia has always felt it owns the soul.

 

Russia WILL NOT allow NATO up against their borders. They will go to war for that. They will not loose control that way. Ukraine was desperately trying to join Europe in before 2017 but Putin simply took back Crimea last year instead. They played a weak hand - mostly because Europe led them on - and Putin punked em down. If the west of Ukraine wants to join Europe, that's "fine" but the East WILL become the buffer zone which is what's happening now.

 

Turkey controls the access to the Black Sea but Russia controls the Black Sea. That's the dynamic that occasionally gets tested. The fighting in Syria and Iraq are, in my mind, not actually part of the greater Turkish/Russian narrative YET. That again is about oil resources and transportation contracts (written about ad nauseaum elsewhere).

 

Things like the bombers are just a reminder. Are they 'provocative'? Personally I suspect they've been going on a long time and it's the media pushing a narrative to get clicks. Dog Whistles for those inclined to hear. The Chinese have been scheduling missile launch 'tests' for Christmas Eve every year for like a decade. You think they can't read a calendar? They're dicking around. And we do stuff like flying satellites over their bases. Countries do crap like that to each other. What good is having the biggest schlong if you can't smack someone with it occasionally? And yea, it's that simple. Childish - but simple.

 

Look into the difference between a Red Russian and a White Russian.

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Looks like Putin wants to talk now. This has usually gotten kicked over to Lavrov.

Did you even read your own article? Kerry has chatted with them 22 times this year. Putin and Obama have met 3 times since September.
This is Mr. Kerry's 20th meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, so far this year, and his second face-to-face with President Vladimir Putin. Putin has been known to make Kerry wait for hours for a cursory meeting.You may not see this as evidence that Russians want to talk. I do.

No shit. 25 meetings this year as pointed out by BC. Now if we can only get the Americans to stop supporting the latest batch of freedom fighting terrorists..

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Looks like Putin wants to talk now. This has usually gotten kicked over to Lavrov.

Did you even read your own article? Kerry has chatted with them 22 times this year. Putin and Obama have met 3 times since September.

 

This is Mr. Kerry's 20th meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, so far this year, and his second face-to-face with President Vladimir Putin.

 

Putin has been known to make Kerry wait for hours for a cursory meeting.

You may not see this as evidence that Russians want to talk. I do.

 

Ic. But then why does Mr Kerry appear to be backing down on long-held ideologies?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_RUSSIA_US?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-12-15-16-01-54

Dec 15, 6:01 PM EST

ASSAD CAN STAY, FOR NOW: KERRY ACCEPTS RUSSIAN STANCE

BY MATTHEW LEE AND BRADLEY KLAPPER

ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

MOSCOW (AP) -- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday accepted Russia's long-standing demand that President Bashar Assad's future be determined by his own people, as Washington and Moscow edged toward putting aside years of disagreement over how to end Syria's civil war.

 

"The United States and our partners are not seeking so-called regime change," Kerry told reporters in the Russian capital after meeting President Vladimir Putin. A major international conference on Syria would take place later this week in New York, Kerry announced.

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A lot of what the Russians do is framed internally as an East West thing, reclaiming Russian greatness. This is my supposition but work with me on this. East West, Russia v USA is certainly easy for us and most likely easy for the Russians to see. But Russia v Turkey is different from Russia v NATO as that conflict stretches back before the USofA was even a Confederation of States.

 

So, leaving NATO and US completely out of this, what is going on with Russia and Turkey? Crimea and the Black Sea is armed to the hilt with anti-ship missile swarms. If you recall from the Cold War, we had Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey. The popular imagination has the Cold War being a stare down across the Berlin Wall. But this area is at least as volatile.

 

Are we looking at a looming Battle of Balaclava? Do the Russians really have a clue what they're doing? I don't think they do. They keep amping up tensions. Tupolev Tu-95s trolling off freaking Ireland. Dicking with Sweden.

 

I'm anything but a Putin fan but what is this asshole doing?

 

 

 

Russia WILL NOT allow NATO up against their borders. They will go to war for that. They will not loose control that way.

 

I would hate to be the guy that has to break it to Putin that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all on the Russian border-- are full on NATO members.

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Ic. But then why does Mr Kerry appear to be backing down on long-held ideologies?

That's cool too. I would recommend watching the Godfather clip.

 

How did things ever go so far?

I don't know.

It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary.

I would hate to be the guy that has to break it to Putin that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all on the Russian border-- are full on NATO members.

Poland also borders the Russkis.

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Ic. But then why does Mr Kerry appear to be backing down on long-held ideologies?

That's cool too. I would recommend watching the Godfather clip.

 

How did things ever go so far?

I don't know.

It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary.

 

No shit. Millions of Syrians agree with you.

Hopefully more small steps like this will follow.

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A lot of what the Russians do is framed internally as an East West thing, reclaiming Russian greatness. This is my supposition but work with me on this. East West, Russia v USA is certainly easy for us and most likely easy for the Russians to see. But Russia v Turkey is different from Russia v NATO as that conflict stretches back before the USofA was even a Confederation of States.

 

So, leaving NATO and US completely out of this, what is going on with Russia and Turkey? Crimea and the Black Sea is armed to the hilt with anti-ship missile swarms. If you recall from the Cold War, we had Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey. The popular imagination has the Cold War being a stare down across the Berlin Wall. But this area is at least as volatile.

 

Are we looking at a looming Battle of Balaclava? Do the Russians really have a clue what they're doing? I don't think they do. They keep amping up tensions. Tupolev Tu-95s trolling off freaking Ireland. Dicking with Sweden.

 

I'm anything but a Putin fan but what is this asshole doing?

 

 

 

Russia WILL NOT allow NATO up against their borders. They will go to war for that. They will not loose control that way.

 

I would hate to be the guy that has to break it to Putin that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all on the Russian border-- are full on NATO members.

 

 

Yes, you're right. I was incorrectly coarse in my language and geography.

 

Just as reference.. http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Estonia

 

They are DMZed along with the other two. Yes, all three countries are 'NATO' but they work very hard to be absolutely no threat nor do they allow their territory to be used as a basis for a threat.

 

I did some reading on the White/Red Russian and how it relates to modern Turkish/Russian interactions but I'm not getting a lot of linkage.

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It's the way I think might be best to get past the "great man" mode of thinking which infects this discussion and most popular history these days by going through it. Everybody is mired in it and thinks this is just "Putin".

 

Ok...So...is he a Red or a White Russian?

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Putin is working on halting the geographic spread of the US/Israel/saudi backed war, then will attack with financial war, the only thing the US understands.

 

BRICS will float a gold based economy. They have been buying madly. Then Dollar fucked. US fucked. Clocks ticking.

The Russians will take any opportunity to tweak the US of course. But I'd expect the price of gold to be moving if what you say is true. The opposite way it's actually moving

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Plausible but not certain.

 

The information here is the Russians are pissed off at the Turks and letting them know it. Only fair if their intent is to avenge the next Turkish "accident" with Turkish blood. The situation is ripe for escalation and therefor mixed messages are dangerous. Everything the Russians say about the Turks until tensions ease is highly likely to be nasty as all get out.

Hmmm.

https://www.rt.com/news/326084-erdem-rt-interview-treason/

A treason investigation has been launched against a Turkish MP who alleged in an exclusive interview with RT that Islamic State jihadists delivered deadly sarin gas to Syria through Turkey.

Ankara’s Chief Prosecutor's Office opened the case against Istanbul MP Eren Erdem of Republican People's Party (CHP) after his interview about sarin was aired on RT on Monday.

 

As Turkish media reported Wednesday, the prosecutor’s office is planning to send a summary of proceedings to the Ministry of Justice on Thursday. Following that, the summary may be forwarded to the Turkish parliament, which could vote to strip Erdem of his parliamentary immunity.

RT seems to be the only source currently.

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That's a good point, our courtier media's are no longer interested in journalism, the shit just don't pay. Therefore Syria has dropped off the two radars because neither currently sees a way to use it to affect the reality TV show "Survivor", sometimes referred to as the "Race For The White House" or improve its ratings.

 

Btw, the Geneva talks have already broken down. This will be settled the old-fashioned way. At some point the soldiers will decide that some form of talking will again be useful, or at least one sides will.

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By the vast majority of accounts the Syrian government is making big strides in the north. Yeah, the Russians are providing air support but I suspect the intervention's effect on moral is the bigger factor. The timing of the Russian's move seems to have been just right. The loyalists deem this their last, best (and good!), shot at survival and are thus giving it the all plus 10% such endeavors typically garner. The years of desperate war have distilled them down. True soldiers, they will fight, and they will draw defectors from the ranks of their enemy. Many of whom simply want to be on the winning side.

 

The efforts of the Russian/Syrian/Hezzi/Iraqi coalition seem coordinated with our Kurdish one. They are both pushing to shut the lid of the "Cauldron" as Russians like to call them.

 

naleppo-s.jpg

 

 

Russia and the US: "Enemies in peace, allies in war."

 

 

How can situations like this escape the eye of our media? They are no longer interested in journalism, that's why.

 

Anywho, if I were Daesh I'd consider getting my ass back into Iraq and becoming AQIM again. Hard to imagine them reversing this, but they might. Ya just never know.

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By the vast majority of accounts the Syrian government is making big strides in the north. Yeah, the Russians are providing air support but I suspect the intervention's effect on moral is the bigger factor. The timing of the Russian's move seems to have been just right. The loyalists deem this their last, best (and good!), shot at survival and are thus giving it the all plus 10% such endeavors typically garner. The years of desperate war have distilled them down. True soldiers, they will fight, and they will draw defectors from the ranks of their enemy. Many of whom simply want to be on the winning side.

Morale is an important thing to have on your side.

The gossip sites suggest that the israelis are freaking out about all this top-level training that Hezbollah is getting.

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There has never been a better example of the total control the US administration had over the media.

 

In your mind Obama must like being called a Kenyan Muslim...or something.

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The efforts of the Russian/Syrian/Hezzi/Iraqi coalition seem coordinated with our Kurdish one. They are both pushing to shut the lid of the "Cauldron" as Russians like to call them.

 

 

How can situations like this escape the eye of our media? They are no longer interested in journalism, that's why.

 

Anywho, if I were Daesh I'd consider getting my ass back into Iraq and becoming AQIM again. Hard to imagine them reversing this, but they might. Ya just never know.

 

 

 

 

The Kurds have a common enemy with the Islamic state apart from that the Russians are their best friend in that group, Assad and Iran persecute the Kurds while the Iraqis have given them some autonomy.

 

Journalists are the biggest bunch of drunks I have ever come across, they like a drink which might explain why many of them are short on facts.

 

Don't know how this will end some prick stole my crystal balls, I hope the Kurds can get their own country.

 

Why does the USA list the PKK as terrorists is it because your mates the Turkeys don't like that filthy kuffar atheist Abdullah Ocalan or is it because the Kurds flirted with communism and state atheism?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Mahabad

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The efforts of the Russian/Syrian/Hezzi/Iraqi coalition seem coordinated with our Kurdish one. They are both pushing to shut the lid of the "Cauldron" as Russians like to call them.

 

 

How can situations like this escape the eye of our media? They are no longer interested in journalism, that's why.

 

Anywho, if I were Daesh I'd consider getting my ass back into Iraq and becoming AQIM again. Hard to imagine them reversing this, but they might. Ya just never know.

 

 

 

 

The Kurds have a common enemy with the Islamic state apart from that the Russians are their best friend in that group, Assad and Iran persecute the Kurds while the Iraqis have given them some autonomy.

 

Journalists are the biggest bunch of drunks I have ever come across, they like a drink which might explain why many of them are short on facts.

 

Don't know how this will end some prick stole my crystal balls, I hope the Kurds can get their own country.

 

Why does the USA list the PKK as terrorists is it because your mates the Turkeys don't like that filthy kuffar atheist Abdullah Ocalan or is it because the Kurds flirted with communism and state atheism?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Mahabad

 

 

They are terrorists. And you are aware, at some level, you've never had any balls, right?

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