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swwind

The Who Will Win & Why Thread - put in your pick

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TNZ

 

There is no subsitute for time on the water. Racing these machines downwind is more like a downhill skier picking the right line, except insted of changes in slope and terrian you have puffs' lulls, boundaries and current to deal with. Its no lock, but I just don't see OR catching up to the boat handeling advantage of the Kiwis.

 

post-35982-0-96333700-1373994399_thumb.png

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Flintstones = 9; Facebook = SFA.

 

Among the many mistakes in this AC, perhaps the biggest was pissing-off long-term Cup enthusiasts and gambling on engaging with semi-literate, hyper-distracted and cognitively-challenged kids.

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This AC is reminding me somewhat of the '95 one. US West Coast, somewhat new yacht class (2nd AC for IACC), TNZ with an innovative boat design far superior to any others on the water, their crew work firing on all cylinders, the yacht fully tuned early in the game and everyone else playing catchup. Right now it's looking like repeat.

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How is this thread different than the "Who is the Favorite, place your bets" thread that is on its 2nd page?

 

Search function is your friend.

 

WetHog

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OR will win. They have the best designers on the planet, they have the best skipper in the galaxy so good he doesn't need the practice on the water, they have more time than Dr Who, they have more money than GoD, they have cracked the holy grail of rudder elevator designs, they are the only boats to hit 65mph according to the best skipper in the galaxy so good he doesn't need the practice on the water, and they are an American team defending in home waters they know so well they don't need to practise on them.

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thanks

 

the 3 teams sailing, not so dissimilar

 

Luna Rossa Challenge as at July 16, 2013 66 sailing days
ORACLE TEAM USA as at July 15, 2013 68 sailing days
Emirates Team New Zealand as at 2 July 14, 2013 73 sailing days

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.....

 

Among the many mistakes in this AC, perhaps the biggest was pissing-off long-term Cup enthusiasts and gambling on engaging with semi-literate, hyper-distracted and cognitively-challenged kids.

indeed

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.....

 

Among the many mistakes in this AC, perhaps the biggest was pissing-off long-term Cup enthusiasts and gambling on engaging with semi-literate, hyper-distracted and cognitively-challenged kids.

indeed

Checked ETNZ's FaceBook page lately? They are all over that medium too, despite TaKuties FB hangups.

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I went to the launch of both ETNZ '72's (shit that took some working out) and I was gutted that they didn't call the second boat "Black Magic." Could you imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth that would have followed that naming?!?!

 

Edit: to keep it on topic, the tractor is bringing it home.

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9 zip ETNZ. ETNZ have a cat OR have a dog to paraphrase Dennis Conner.

ETNZ remind me of TNZ in 1995:).

OR remind me of TNZ in 2003:(.

Any more inside scoops from your LR contacts?!?

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Not sure of the score as I think there will be some trading of race wins, but OR's extra time to tune before the match with two relatively equal boats will pay-off better than ETNZ's roll through the LV. ETNZ will not be pushed that hard after what I have seen so far. RC will make sure JS & BA race hard, but not so hard they damage a boat.

 

If a modified ETNZ B1 shows-up with a good crew to train hard, that could make some difference, but I am not sure they have that depth.

 

ETNZ have been fast first, but it is he who is fast last that will take the Cup............

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As i said in a previous thread.... faster will win. Sailing will take 97% of the race time, and maneuvers the rest. If you are slow in maneuvers, but fast sailing... the 3% won't matter. (I'm guessing on the percentages, but you get the point)

 

Furthermore, strategically, if you are faster, you get to pick your maneuvers, and their number.

 

So who is faster? Don't know with certainty... but OR seems more focused on that issue with their aero package, small foils, etc.

 

We will see, but my Champagne is on OR. (Actually, the Champagne will be on TC unless his name change was to get out of the bet ;) )

 

TC and I will tell you in September from the GGYC bar... or a better bar nearby where they will let both of us in!

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I have a hunch... The Kiwis will win. Which ones? The ones with Emirates Team New Zealand.

 

Why?

 

Consistency, team work, culture and fucking hard work and determination.

 

The only spanner in the works...Dean Barker.

 

I don't wanna knock the guy but good god, I hope he does not choke.

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Up until about a week ago I would have, and in fact did in one case, put money on OR winning. Their progress in the last two months has been very impressive. If anything they looked to be foiling better than ETNZ.

 

Since the IJ decision a few factors are swinging me back the other way:

  • OR will now have to take some steps backward and figure out how to control their boat with smaller stabilisers.
  • In the LR match ET was a lot better upwind than I expected.
  • GD said they are about 1 month behind on their development. This means there lots of tweaks to come. They are going to keep on getting better right to the end.
  • Right from the get go they, out of all the teams, seamed to have figured out this new class better than any other.

So now my money is on ETNZ taking it out.

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Absolutely fascinating.....its going to be.

With the different approaches to the variables.

May the best "package" win....with no breakages of animate, or inanimate kind.

 

ETNZ...by a hair.

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The only way we weill get a dramatic Am Cup I reckin would be if the boats sparkel in diff wind conditions, and there is a good variaty of wx.

 

IF ETNZ is slower upwind in the light as poeple seem to expect, but their manouvers are better (open questoin) they myght still be able to get to bottom mark first and sit on ORs face up the beats (narrow sidelines shd help?)

 

Short coarses wd also help, but a tall order - - Maybe they cant do it for the hole race but praps long enoyugh to damage ORs chances of finishing within time?

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OR appears to roll through and accelerate out of their tacks faster than any of the challengers, I think upwind speed and cleaner tacks are going to trump marginally better gybing , LR is similar speed wise to ETNZ in a straight line off the wind, I assume that OR off wind speed is similar, I have wondered if foiling speeds are finite due to cavitation and ventilation, from what I've seen there's not much in it.

So I'm guessing a win for OR.

 

I should note that this from firsthand observation not video, I'm out on the water all day at least 5 days a week and I've had a pretty good look at what's out there.

For full disclosure let me add that I don't work for Oracle and in fact I'm not American, I'm a Brit' with family in NZ, currently living and working in SF.

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what LR vs ETNZ proved is that boatspeed doesnt matter that much it is VMG that makes all the difference. anyway to say that LR where similar speed wasnt really actuate either, the average speeds, distance sailed, and top speeds where all significant.

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Speed vs Control

 

Who has more of either is up for debate, but I feel OR has speed edge, ETNZ handling edge.

It is harder to tell comparative pointing ability, so slower over water isn't necessarily slower VMG.

Foiling to windward is another wildcard...

 

My heart says: ETNZ

 

My head says: Too close and too many unknowns to call

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etnz to win

 

if the races are in the afternoon

 

wide open if eb gets his way and racing is in morning drifters

 

because it's "safer"

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ETNZ

Superior boat handling and VMG. These guys are all over it!!!

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If I had to bet it would be oracle. Aero in the upwind apparent will be important. Having said that etnz are starting to look good upwind too.

Surely even the most die hard etnz fan would be concerned about the level of talent on oracle and Artemis(if they were more organised).

After the beating Luna rossa took would u give them no change of progressing compared to a very slim chance Artemis have if in the unlikely chance there boat turned out to be a rocket ship(juank vo70 style)?

If somebody lays it over in the next month only perhaps oracle could recover? Surely someone will.

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I have wondered if foiling speeds are finite due to cavitation and ventilation, from what I've seen there's not much in it.

 

Was wondering this too recently. ETNZ hit 43kts in their first race in avg 16kt air, but didn't manage to exceed that in the race against LR last weekend, in avg 18kt air. Not enough data points for sure, but makes me wonder the same, if there's a physical limit on foiling speed.

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65 knots currently if you are willing to go beyond the AC72 class.

 

And Paul Larsen indicated that if he could get the ventilated foil to work - the previously declared 'limits' would have been overcome and the potential would be there for much higher speeds.

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There are some very unsubstantiated rumours about how fast ETNZ boat was going when running home ahead of a cyclone in Auckland... a bit quicker than 43knots...

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ARTEMIS

I like blue and fairy tales.

 

Seriously, hope ETNZ (at least we might get an Oz team sailing if it comes back to Auckland) but suspect OR will have the edge on the complete speed package come race day.

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ETNZ. Their lawyers seem to be better than the OR lawyers...

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The winner will be

 

All of us "sail fast with wings & foils" fanatics.

 

I was disappointed when the the winged moth attempt fizzled and then was snuffed out by a vote.

 

However, with SR2, AC 72s and the C Class (getting even more interesting than ever before) we are getting a real show.

 

Unless the whole "wings + foils" fever chills out (which I doubt), we may yet see foil/wing improvements that have a chance to "trickle down" to a new class, a product for an existing class, or some options for the "lets see how this works" do-it-yourself types.

 

OK now back to the intended topic.

 

I became a fan of the OR design team shortly after they went from soft to hard for the Dogzilla rig. However, being an OR fan does not mean that I not impressed by ETNZ.

 

My bet speed will win and win big. I would put the chance of a slightly slower boat winning due to better handling as very slim.

 

The OR boat looks to have more of a speed focus.

 

The ETNZ rig looks like it has the potential to be better, but OR have been at wings longer and probably have more geek power behind their wing. Just no way to pick at this point.

 

Foils are the key. Foils make the biggest improvement for the downwind legs, but I bet that both boats are going to be close enough on the downwind. If one team really is distinctly faster on upwind VMG, victory is theirs as long as they screw up too much. Both teams have been seen just ripping along, but without side by side runs or real polars, their is just no way to say who is fastest now.

 

Both teams also have serious potential for tweaking more top speed. Big foiling winged cats are just too new to be anywhere near optimum. However, development time is limited.

 

Dagger foils are the most important item, but are less practical to "tune". OR has a slight potential advantage here with two boat testing ability.

 

Rudders stabilizers changes can only do so much, but are easier to play with. OR has talked about reducing rudder stabilizer area for more speed. I have seen no mention of a similar effort by ETNZ. However, since they (and LR) did no go along with the proposed minimum area requirement, they have retained the ability to consider a similar option. For each team, they probably have a pretty good understanding of the other teams apparent performance. If they think they are ahead, they can stick with a conservative large area to preserve PP avoidance safety margin. If they are ahead but close, they could consider working out the details for something faster but holding off to see if it is worth the risk. If they think they are behind but close, the could plan a "just in time" implementation to try to turn the tables. If they do not think a small speed increase would help, they could consider sticking with a safe and very reliable configuration and hope that the other guy messes up.

 

Unlike most, I am not picking a winner but did take my best cut at the "why". It will be the boat that has the better upwind VMG in September.

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Speed vs Control

 

Who has more of either is up for debate, but I feel OR has speed edge, ETNZ handling edge.

It is harder to tell comparative pointing ability, so slower over water isn't necessarily slower VMG.

Foiling to windward is another wildcard...

 

My heart says: ETNZ

 

My head says: Too close and too many unknowns to call

 

 

That sums it up for me. Well, at least at this point in proceedings.

 

Some of the Oracle tearaways are breathtaking in their smoothness and acceleration.

 

Gross generalisation but the Defender's foils seem less fussy than the Tractor Twins.

 

Have yet to see Jimmy and Co demonstrate the control and manoeuvrability of the Kiwis.

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Speed vs Control

 

Who has more of either is up for debate, but I feel OR has speed edge, ETNZ handling edge.

It is harder to tell comparative pointing ability, so slower over water isn't necessarily slower VMG.

Foiling to windward is another wildcard...

 

My heart says: ETNZ

 

My head says: Too close and too many unknowns to call

 

Aye, me too. And despite the location, I'm not a kiwi.

 

Always admired the attitude of the kiwi team and the temerity - not to mention I'd like my tax dollars (cos I do live in NZ) to achieve something. 30 mil ain't to be sniffed at when you're rebuilding a city.

 

But it would be very premature to declare them winners at this stage. We haven't seen enough evidence of what OR can do - they look promising and they have time on their side... I am a little worried - but looking forward to finding out. Let's hope it's a good show.

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LR: Because they're really, really, ridicolously good looking...

 

Seriously, TNZ, because of time in the water and foiling development time.

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There are some very unsubstantiated rumours about how fast ETNZ boat was going when running home ahead of a cyclone in Auckland... a bit quicker than 43knots...

Grant Dalton has been remarkibly fourthcoming with speed data throuhgout the developemnt

 

he said they saw no more than 30 knots wind on day 28 (it was the size of th waves that was a consern and that they didn't know what the top speed was becauss there was too much water washing over the beams to read the monotors

 

so semes to me any rumores likely to be worht what they cost to estamate

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It will come down to wind velocity.

Both TNZ and OR will take wins.

If it blows like snot? The Kiwis will take it.

If the wind is quiet, OR has it in the bag.

 

I would like TNZ to win as the AC needs to be brought back to earth - as it were.

The Facebook crap that RC put out is a complete sank.

 

We need real racing. Monohulls. Fully televised. Lots of action.

Yes, they are a lot slower, but hell, the downwind sailing was so exciting.

 

If it does go back down under, there will be more openness and integrity.

It will be won by sailors and not technology, as it should be.

Problem is of course, the nationality rules will completely stuff the countries that will in the top 2 or 3 challengers.

It is quite apparent that the Kiwis have the edge on team organization and sailing, and they (hopefully) will not be allowed to compete for other teams.

 

Would also love to see Aus back in the game. Keep the cup down for a few years .... :)

Wellington and Perth?

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the obvious nationality clause which would fix Evertyhing and be easely enforced:

 

NO KIWIS or OZZIES !!!!! (in ANY team)

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There are some very unsubstantiated rumours about how fast ETNZ boat was going when running home ahead of a cyclone in Auckland... a bit quicker than 43knots...

Grant Dalton has been remarkibly fourthcoming with speed data throuhgout the developemnt

 

he said they saw no more than 30 knots wind on day 28 (it was the size of th waves that was a consern and that they didn't know what the top speed was becauss there was too much water washing over the beams to read the monotors

 

so semes to me any rumores likely to be worht what they cost to estamate

Day 28 in NZ was a record breaker for highest wind speed. Sea state conditions were not favourable for attaining boat speed records. South Bay is faster for straightline speeds than the race course.

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Speed vs Control

 

Who has more of either is up for debate, but I feel OR has speed edge, ETNZ handling edge.

It is harder to tell comparative pointing ability, so slower over water isn't necessarily slower VMG.

Foiling to windward is another wildcard...

 

My heart says: ETNZ

 

My head says: Too close and too many unknowns to call

+1

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There are some very unsubstantiated rumours about how fast ETNZ boat was going when running home ahead of a cyclone in Auckland... a bit quicker than 43knots...

Grant Dalton has been remarkibly fourthcoming with speed data throuhgout the developemnt

 

he said they saw no more than 30 knots wind on day 28 (it was the size of th waves that was a consern and that they didn't know what the top speed was becauss there was too much water washing over the beams to read the monotors

 

so semes to me any rumores likely to be worht what they cost to estamate

Day 28 in NZ was a record breaker for highest wind speed. Sea state conditions were not favourable for attaining boat speed records. South Bay is faster for straightline speeds than the race course.

 

I think it was more like an average of 43 knots for something over 15 minutes. There are a couple of rumours they backed off a bit so Chase 1 could stay in touch with them in the seaway.

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