Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

ryley

Vendee Globe 2016?

Recommended Posts

A couple of notes on containers.

 

The tare weight on a 20' container is about 5000 lbs, and a 40' is close to 8000 lbs. The idea that you could put enough foam packaging in one to float it is pretty unlikely. The door seals are generally pretty good, but in serious ocean swells the twist/torque on the container is going to spring them. They are going to sink pretty quickly, and I can't speak to all the designs, but as I recall every one I have ever dealt with is vented. Small series of holes in the structure high on the corrugation. Yes, one would surely float for a while, but they are not buoys.

 

Lastly, they are effectively immobile rectangular steel structures. Think collision with a steel floating dock, impact with them is going to show gouging and tearing.

 

If these guys are actually hitting something other than waves in the southern ocean, my bet is whales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10,000/yr... The complete NOAA report. Based on 7 studies done between 2001 and 2011.

http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/conservation/pdfs/lostcontainers.pdf

Before we take the word of the industry claiming only a few hundred per year, remember the BP was reporting only a few thousand barrels/day of oil leaking from the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig, when the actual amount was twenty-fold that. Industries are always going to grossly understate the environmental damage they do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However the NOAA report said no such thing. The preamble said "up to" across a range of reports - ie the worst number was 10,000, not the concluded number. But if you actually read the report proper you get to this:

 

 

 

The actual numbers of lost containers are difficult to confirm and estimates of the scope of this occurrence are wide-ranging. Many groups have cited a figure of 10,000 containers falling from ships each year (Podsada 2001; Standley 2003; Hohn 2011; IMO 2004; BBC 2010; ITTS 2011; Countryman and McDaniel 2011). The Chair of the European Parliament’s Transport Committee, National Geographic News, BBC News, and Friends of the Earth International are among those citing this figure, which would amount to 83 million pounds (41,500 tons) of littered steel in container weight alone annually. The Through Transport Club, which insures 15 of the top 20 container lines for their losses, estimates that losses overboard are “probably less than 2,000 containers per year” (VMI 2011). Groups including the AIMU and a joint industry project of the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN) have cited less specific numbers that are nonetheless in the 1000s (Lashing@Sea 2006; AIMU 2008). However, the origins of these estimates are not clear. Another estimate is that lost merchant freight at sea amounts to 1.3 million tons per year (Van den Hove and Moreau 2007). This figure includes bulk goods and break-bulk cargo in addition to containers

 

The problem with containers floating is easy to understand. 8000 pounds only needs four cubic metres of buoyancy to float. A 40 foot container has a surface area of about 160 square meters. Thus you only need foam insulation to a depth of one inch to achieve neutral buoyancy. Freezer containers have much more than that. Freezer containers tend to contain food, which to a good approximation is neutrally buoyant. The other big problem is stuff packed in foam. Just about any modern electronic toy is packed in a foam filled box that even including the electronic device ends up with an effective density of pretty close to sod all. A container filled with electronics will trivially float. Pretty high too.

 

(Also, Deepwater Horizon, it is much more complex. The leakage rate was very low at first, but increased substantially as the well head BOP shearing ram eroded. None of this was understood until the BOP was recovered and inspected. There was lots of bad behaviour, but there was also a lot of simple ignorance of what was actually happening.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10,000/yr... The complete NOAA report. Based on 7 studies done between 2001 and 2011.

http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/conservation/pdfs/lostcontainers.pdf

Before we take the word of the industry claiming only a few hundred per year, remember the BP was reporting only a few thousand barrels/day of oil leaking from the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig, when the actual amount was twenty-fold that. Industries are always going to grossly understate the environmental damage they do.

 

The report was very interesting. It seems since the 90s companies and government organizations have been attempting to learn more about the situation in general. From tracking, lashings, and creating the necessary means to prevent container loss. I would suspect unfortunately that bureaucracy has slowed this progress down which is why we still are having issues today. Whether or not the boats have actually hit cargo containers we may not be sure, but the incident with the fishing trawler mentioned in the report does show a concern for the future. Here is to hoping we mitigate all container losses to protect the future impact on the planet. While they are only small items dropped in a vast sea, we still need to do more as the human race to protect the one planet we have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'd think it would be easy to find out how many containers were lost by looking for insurance claims, or at least payouts. Not so. Anyone have a good link?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'd think it would be easy to find out how many containers were lost by looking for insurance claims, or at least payouts. Not so. Anyone have a good link?

 

From the NOAA report:

 

 

The Through Transport Club, which insures 15 of the top 20 container lines for their losses, estimates that losses overboard are “probably less than 2,000 containers per year” (VMI 2011)

 

However the reference is to this: http://www.veromarine.co.nz/dirvz/marine/marine.nsf/Content/PhotoFeature0007 which isn't the TT club report, but an article paraphrasing it.

That isn't exactly high quality research IMHO. Why the NOAA report could not access the actual TT Club data, and is simply citing a web article's one sentence summary is hard to understand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

You'd think it would be easy to find out how many containers were lost by looking for insurance claims, or at least payouts. Not so. Anyone have a good link?

 

From the NOAA report:

 

The Through Transport Club, which insures 15 of the top 20 container lines for their losses, estimates that losses overboard are “probably less than 2,000 containers per year” (VMI 2011)

 

However the reference is to this: http://www.veromarine.co.nz/dirvz/marine/marine.nsf/Content/PhotoFeature0007 which isn't the TT club report, but an article paraphrasing it.

That isn't exactly high quality research IMHO. Why the NOAA report could not access the actual TT Club data, and is simply citing a web article's one sentence summary is hard to understand.

 

Yeah. I'd thought by now a central DB would be accessible, but looks like this part of the NOAA report hasn't changed much.

No centralized database is maintained with comprehensive container loss statistics. Damage and loss reports are rarely shared beyond line operators, involved local maritime authorities and providers of protection and indemnity insurance (P&I clubs). Operators generally avoid exposing incident details for publicity reasons. Similarly, P&I clubs investigate loss incidents but do not share findings, making trends difficult to evaluate (Lashing@Sea 2009; AIMU 2008).

Some people think open data is bad, bad, bad.

 

Back to the race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh for fuck's sake, enough with the containers. It's all been said in every ocean race thread previous to this one ad nauseum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh for fuck's sake, enough with the containers. It's all been said in every ocean race thread previous to this one ad nauseum.

 

+1 As suggested above (but ignored), new thread, but started not by me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Oh for fuck's sake, enough with the containers. It's all been said in every ocean race thread previous to this one ad nauseum.

 

+1 As suggested above (but ignored), new thread, but started not by me.

 

 

 

Here ya go:

 

Containers at sea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to take away from Armels sailing and weather routing, but he has just had some great luck as well. The last few days the forecast has shown a very light patch that was forming between BP and the cape that looked like it was going to hold him up while HB caught up some. Well that appears to have vanished and then reformed behind BP (now doing 15s) and in front of HB (now doing 9s). If the windy.tv model holds up for the next 48hours, then HB is going to lose a lot more miles.

 

I hate these 4 to 7 hour updates. Can't they just give us a live feed that is delayed 4 hours, so we can at least watch how the conditions vary.

 

cheers

Alex had some lucky breaks in the Atlantic: rather lucky going through the islands, unbelievably lucky in the Doldrums. The foil was not a lucky break, but breaking it without any other apparent structural damage to the rest of the boat could be considered a bit lucky.

It is clear that to win the VG you need skill, stamina, a good boat and luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh dear, wind shift ahead for Armel coming soon. Instead of upwind work he can go with the flow. Excellent navigation, but I think it robs Alex last chance to make up some distance. Anyway, what a great race, great coverage and a very healthy forum with great education...bar the container stuff...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple of notes on containers.

 

The tare weight on a 20' container is about 5000 lbs, and a 40' is close to 8000 lbs. The idea that you could put enough foam packaging in one to float it is pretty unlikely. The door seals are generally pretty good, but in serious ocean swells the twist/torque on the container is going to spring them. They are going to sink pretty quickly, and I can't speak to all the designs, but as I recall every one I have ever dealt with is vented. Small series of holes in the structure high on the corrugation. Yes, one would surely float for a while, but they are not buoys.

 

Lastly, they are effectively immobile rectangular steel structures. Think collision with a steel floating dock, impact with them is going to show gouging and tearing.

 

If these guys are actually hitting something other than waves in the southern ocean, my bet is whales.

 

I did my military service (quite some years ago) in the Navy, and more precisely in the "plongeurs démineurs" in Brest (a divers group with different missions, both civilian such as exploding old wwII mines that fishermen get in their nets, and military such as checking that the russians did not put microphones in the nuclear subs path, etc) . And once we had to sink a container that was in the Ushant cargo path.

This container was in fact full of toilet paper(all packed in their six or eight pieces plastic bags), and it really took quite a bit of explosives to get the thing finally sinking (and toilet paper all over the place as a result) ...

 

The divers also told me that once they had to sink a dead whale that was floating next to Toulon, and basically they stuffed it with explosives but the smell was absolutely atrocious.

 

About containers, a key reason why the ships loose some is that they pack so many in height, so that the bottom ones get crushed and the top ones fall over :

Conteneurs--risque5.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next day or two looks like the rich get richer.

 

If the predictions on the tracker are right it looks to me that Armel should really get to open up some more on Alex before he reached the Horn. I think Alex is going to end up in headwinds before he gets there.

 

 

Beyou on the other hand looks like he'd about to be stuck in a slow moving no wind hole.

 

I do like being able to play with the tracker and try to guess what will happen next.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there no stopping ALC now? Not thinking that AT/HB can catch up with him and make it a decent horse race. GREAT following this!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather forecast reliability seems to be getting more flakey for RTW race boats...also elsewhere it seems ...Snowstorm hits Sahara for first time in nearly 40 years http://ab.co/2hJoL4a - via @abcnews

It would be interesting to put the forecast data beside logs of observed conditions to see what the variance is between the prediction and reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Not to take away from Armels sailing and weather routing, but he has just had some great luck as well. The last few days the forecast has shown a very light patch that was forming between BP and the cape that looked like it was going to hold him up while HB caught up some. Well that appears to have vanished and then reformed behind BP (now doing 15s) and in front of HB (now doing 9s). If the windy.tv model holds up for the next 48hours, then HB is going to lose a lot more miles.

 

I hate these 4 to 7 hour updates. Can't they just give us a live feed that is delayed 4 hours, so we can at least watch how the conditions vary.

 

cheers

 

Alex had some lucky breaks in the Atlantic: rather lucky going through the islands, unbelievably lucky in the Doldrums. The foil was not a lucky break, but breaking it without any other apparent structural damage to the rest of the boat could be considered a bit lucky.

It is clear that to win the VG you need skill, stamina, a good boat and luck.

That bit of luck going through the islands, I wondered about that earlier. It would be a good question for Alex to answer if he has cooked that up with his shore router Wouter V. or not. Knowing that that tunnel effect there exits does not seem luck to me. Happened once to me sailing in Croatia when the jugo started in the Kornati archipel, had 6 bft in 20 minutes and waves that stopped the 44' boat using the motor. Was 0 bft and a completely flat sea before that. Motorsailing to a windward shore helped but is was the most dangerous situation I have been so far. That local kind of knowledge used to your advantage is no luck imho.

Off-topic

Jugo never comes in 20 minutes. It always takes hours even days before it reaches its full strength. I guess the direction was from S or even SW and not from SE (jugo).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well that explains everything (although this would be the opposite direction to what you first said). Bura can come in minutes and can be life threatening. 60+ kt squalls within minutes from windstill. Luckily this does not happen quite often in the summer when Adriatic is full of inexperienced tourists. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

Not to take away from Armels sailing and weather routing, but he has just had some great luck as well. The last few days the forecast has shown a very light patch that was forming between BP and the cape that looked like it was going to hold him up while HB caught up some. Well that appears to have vanished and then reformed behind BP (now doing 15s) and in front of HB (now doing 9s). If the windy.tv model holds up for the next 48hours, then HB is going to lose a lot more miles.

 

I hate these 4 to 7 hour updates. Can't they just give us a live feed that is delayed 4 hours, so we can at least watch how the conditions vary.

 

cheers

Alex had some lucky breaks in the Atlantic: rather lucky going through the islands, unbelievably lucky in the Doldrums. The foil was not a lucky break, but breaking it without any other apparent structural damage to the rest of the boat could be considered a bit lucky.

It is clear that to win the VG you need skill, stamina, a good boat and luck.

That bit of luck going through the islands, I wondered about that earlier. It would be a good question for Alex to answer if he has cooked that up with his shore router Wouter V. or not. Knowing that that tunnel effect there exits does not seem luck to me. Happened once to me sailing in Croatia when the jugo started in the Kornati archipel, had 6 bft in 20 minutes and waves that stopped the 44' boat using the motor. Was 0 bft and a completely flat sea before that. Motorsailing to a windward shore helped but is was the most dangerous situation I have been so far. That local kind of knowledge used to your advantage is no luck imho.
Off-topic

Jugo never comes in 20 minutes. It always takes hours even days before it reaches its full strength. I guess the direction was from S or even SW and not from SE (jugo).

NE that would be the bura :)

Correct, but it's called Bora ;-). Normally you get a warning on the VHF, if you miss that you better watch mountains, when you see clouds falling down like rolling stones you have 30' - 45' ;-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh for fuck's sake, enough with the containers. It's all been said in every ocean race thread previous to this one ad nauseum.

 

+1, dissected to death, analogous to a drawn out circle jerk. fkn' things are nothing but floating litter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I flew Ryanair and I couldn't help notice that they also have huge foils and hoped they weren't going to break up hitting UFOs :D

 

3185322944_45168fa1ce_b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Oh for fuck's sake, enough with the containers. It's all been said in every ocean race thread previous to this one ad nauseum.

 

+1, dissected to death, analogous to a drawn out circle jerk. fkn' things are nothing but floating litter.
Yet you're still replying. With one hand, presumably.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Not to take away from Armels sailing and weather routing, but he has just had some great luck as well. The last few days the forecast has shown a very light patch that was forming between BP and the cape that looked like it was going to hold him up while HB caught up some. Well that appears to have vanished and then reformed behind BP (now doing 15s) and in front of HB (now doing 9s). If the windy.tv model holds up for the next 48hours, then HB is going to lose a lot more miles.

 

I hate these 4 to 7 hour updates. Can't they just give us a live feed that is delayed 4 hours, so we can at least watch how the conditions vary.

 

cheers

Alex had some lucky breaks in the Atlantic: rather lucky going through the islands, unbelievably lucky in the Doldrums. The foil was not a lucky break, but breaking it without any other apparent structural damage to the rest of the boat could be considered a bit lucky.

It is clear that to win the VG you need skill, stamina, a good boat and luck.

That bit of luck going through the islands, I wondered about that earlier. It would be a good question for Alex to answer if he has cooked that up with his shore router Wouter V. or not. Knowing that that tunnel effect there exits does not seem luck to me. Happened once to me sailing in Croatia when the jugo started in the Kornati archipel, had 6 bft in 20 minutes and waves that stopped the 44' boat using the motor. Was 0 bft and a completely flat sea before that. Motorsailing to a windward shore helped but is was the most dangerous situation I have been so far. That local kind of knowledge used to your advantage is no luck imho.

 

I think all the leading skippers in this race know about this "tunnel effect"- it is well discussed, for instance in Bernot's books, they all attend meteorology seminars and have years of experience of sailing in these areas. The effect creates accelerations and dead patches with a set of probabilities attached, depending on exact wind direction, strength, etc. This leads some skippers to go around the islands while others prefer go through - high risk/high return versus play it safe. It did work brilliantly for Alex on that day. Maybe he saw something nobody else saw, maybe he got a bit lucky, maybe a bit of both. Would also be a good question to ask the competitors who went around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Weather forecast reliability seems to be getting more flakey for RTW race boats...also elsewhere it seems ...Snowstorm hits Sahara for first time in nearly 40 years http://ab.co/2hJoL4a - via @abcnews

 

It would be interesting to put the forecast data beside logs of observed conditions to see what the variance is between the prediction and reality.
Nice one, these observations don't exist there except on the land part. The only possible way to validate the predictions are the scatterometry satellite observations provided by Squid. But these only cover a small portion of the ocean at certain intervals.

But VG have sent out 20+ probes that can record actual conditions. So at least some partial data is available.

 

Or perhaps all containers should be fitted with weather stations as well as gps trakers:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going back a bit ... containers are worth nothing, contents are insured. From what I understand its chepaer to have your container on the outside / higher up as it's known to be more likely to be lost. The shipping companies really dont give a shit. As above unkess they are heavily fined or made to carry far fewer containers this will just keep happening.

 

Chapeau to Thomas, thats a stunning effort.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Oh for fuck's sake, enough with the containers. It's all been said in every ocean race thread previous to this one ad nauseum.

 

+1, dissected to death, analogous to a drawn out circle jerk. fkn' things are nothing but floating litter.
Yet you're still replying. With one hand, presumably.

 

 

this my first and last contribution to the floating box 'discussion', you have me confused with someone else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Paul said in a video (EN subtiles) that he is out. Probably Tahiti for him, it depends on weather routing and also a bit on where the team can airfreight a new hydraulic cylinder the easiest/fastest.

 

French Polynesia is in the right direction, a week or so until he gets there. Time to send spare parts, and the French in French Polynesia should make the customs process a bit more straightforward. (Or at least well known.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

Not to take away from Armels sailing and weather routing, but he has just had some great luck as well. The last few days the forecast has shown a very light patch that was forming between BP and the cape that looked like it was going to hold him up while HB caught up some. Well that appears to have vanished and then reformed behind BP (now doing 15s) and in front of HB (now doing 9s). If the windy.tv model holds up for the next 48hours, then HB is going to lose a lot more miles.

 

I hate these 4 to 7 hour updates. Can't they just give us a live feed that is delayed 4 hours, so we can at least watch how the conditions vary.

 

cheers

Alex had some lucky breaks in the Atlantic: rather lucky going through the islands, unbelievably lucky in the Doldrums. The foil was not a lucky break, but breaking it without any other apparent structural damage to the rest of the boat could be considered a bit lucky.

It is clear that to win the VG you need skill, stamina, a good boat and luck.

That bit of luck going through the islands, I wondered about that earlier. It would be a good question for Alex to answer if he has cooked that up with his shore router Wouter V. or not. Knowing that that tunnel effect there exits does not seem luck to me. Happened once to me sailing in Croatia when the jugo started in the Kornati archipel, had 6 bft in 20 minutes and waves that stopped the 44' boat using the motor. Was 0 bft and a completely flat sea before that. Motorsailing to a windward shore helped but is was the most dangerous situation I have been so far. That local kind of knowledge used to your advantage is no luck imho.

I think all the leading skippers in this race know about this "tunnel effect"- it is well discussed, for instance in Bernot's books, they all attend meteorology seminars and have years of experience of sailing in these areas. The effect creates accelerations and dead patches with a set of probabilities attached, depending on exact wind direction, strength, etc. This leads some skippers to go around the islands while others prefer go through - high risk/high return versus play it safe. It did work brilliantly for Alex on that day. Maybe he saw something nobody else saw, maybe he got a bit lucky, maybe a bit of both. Would also be a good question to ask the competitors who went around.

Think he knows that area like the back of his hand via kite boarding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thomas Ruyant's interview with 20minutes.fr (in French): http://www.20minutes.fr/lille/1985039-20161222-vendee-globe-apres-abandon-thomas-ruyant-raconte-experience-dingue?utm_medium=Social&xtref=twitter.com/sport&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter&utm_term=Autofeed#link_time=1482447725

 

Some of his thoughts:

 

"I do not know if I hit a cetacean, a container or anything, and I would never know. All I know is that the shock was extremely violent, a bit like a road accident." Sailing the damaged boat to NZ under 50 knots of wind in a raging sea and the boat taking water "was more violent than the shock."

 

"It was a war and I do not even know how the boat managed to hold it."

 

"I was not necessarily afraid for me but I did not want to leave my boat in the open sea. I did everything to bring it home and I am happy to have succeeded."

 

"...the last damage was roulette, I could not do anything and I was not in control of what happened to me."

 

Now he is working to find another port w/ suitable infrastructure to repair the boat. Will not be in NZ. They may try to dismantle and ship the boat to France, but that's still being sorted out and not definitive yet. Hopes to be home in France by Jan 1 for his son's bday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Weather forecast reliability seems to be getting more flakey for RTW race boats...also elsewhere it seems ...Snowstorm hits Sahara for first time in nearly 40 years http://ab.co/2hJoL4a - via @abcnews

It would be interesting to put the forecast data beside logs of observed conditions to see what the variance is between the prediction and reality.
Nice one, these observations don't exist there except on the land part. The only possible way to validate the predictions are the scatterometry satellite observations provided by Squid. But these only cover a small portion of the ocean at certain intervals.

 

How about the observations logged by skippers and all the sensors on the boats?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice explanation of the options js noticed a page or so ago facing Armel and Alex:

 

For a few days, the real headache has been how to approach Cape Horn. Let us try to understand better what lies ahead for Armel le Cléac'h and Alex Thomson.

Two small depressions are going to move very quickly when approaching the Cape which is renowned for its strong winds and big seas. For the end of this week, the wind is not expected to blow at storm force, but the last few miles will not be easy for the two leaders. 2 small depressions circulate very quickly. They come from the south-east and are moving towards Chile. They move clearly faster than the competitors. It is thus necessary to adjust the point of crossing with these systems not to waste too much time.

For Bank Populaire VIII, the strategy seems to be getting in position to the north of the first depression. It is then necessary to approach near its center, to allow to pass it in front, which should take only a few hours and to pick up the South-Easterly winds which quickly shift South and West when approaching Cape Horn. Easy to say, but not easy to execute. If you are too early, it means several hours of light winds (the calm area in the north-east of the depression) and if you are too late, you will have to wait for the following depression. Routings seem to show that the transition is possible. In reality, the wind conditions are often more erratic than on the models. The sea is also cross due to the changes in direction of the wind. All this will slow down the progress of the boats and make it more complicated. Even with a perfect trajectory, the transition is not always easy as what is described by the algorithms. We should find out more on Thursday evening.

For Hugo Boss, it is the second depression which he is going to need to reach. The exercise is not any easier. The timing being a little bit different, routings show that the British boat should pass in front of the depression to find south-easterly winds which will shift south close to Cape Horn. If he is late, there is a risk of being trapped in the center of the low pressure system losing several hours in the light winds.

The next 48 hours will be fascinating to follow. A good concentration, nice trajectories and some luck will allow both leaders to round Cape Horn probably on Friday, December 23rd for the leader and on Christmas Day for the second.

Christian Dumard and Bernard Sacré / Great Circle

http://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/17369/game-of-cat-and-mouse-around-the-lows-circulating-around-cape-horn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

Weather forecast reliability seems to be getting more flakey for RTW race boats...also elsewhere it seems ...Snowstorm hits Sahara for first time in nearly 40 years http://ab.co/2hJoL4a - via @abcnews

It would be interesting to put the forecast data beside logs of observed conditions to see what the variance is between the prediction and reality.
Nice one, these observations don't exist there except on the land part. The only possible way to validate the predictions are the scatterometry satellite observations provided by Squid. But these only cover a small portion of the ocean at certain intervals.
But VG have sent out 20+ probes that can record actual conditions. So at least some partial data is available.

Or perhaps all containers should be fitted with weather stations as well as gps trakers:)

Good to hear, and out of interest is that data public? Did not show up on the bouy info on Squid or I missed that. I'm not sure that 20+ probes can validate up to the scale of the weather prediction models the VG sailors are in. Local stuff will be missed by the more or less meso scale weather models, but also by the limited amount of probes.

 

I'm skipping the container stuff bait, there is a thread here;

http://forums.sailinganarchy.com/index.php?showtopic=179365

 

 

The "probes" I'm talking about are the boats themselves. Each equipped with sensors that are automatically reporting back to base at regular intervals plus a semi expert weather observer. Surely that data could be used in some way to produce an estimate of the accuracy of the weather predictions.

 

... and yes I know container discussions should go to the other thread, but can we at least have some sarcastic jokes about it here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No doubt Armel has this thing well covered. Best 24hr period in the fleet and looks like he'll be cutting the corner pretty close. I'd say he's pretty keen to leave the Pacific behind. Nice work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This race is far from over. The distance left from Cape Horn is still a couple of Trans-Alantics. The Southern Atlantic has thrown up surprises before. Think about Telefonica coming back at Puma in the 2011-2012 VOR, or the move that Brunel-Sunergy made in the 1997-1998 Whitbread. Granted, the leading boats then were aiming from Brazil not France, but there are wind holes enough for a boat to get trapped between Cape Horn and L’orient. Let alone the risk of a collision of other major breakages.

 

Discounting any catastrophes, there is a lot of other ways that suggest things may get interesting. It is likely that Hugo Boss’ optimum routing will work out very different to the other on account of having to avoid upwind and close hauled on port tack. While Maitre Coq’s routing is severely restricted by his lack of good weather data, and has several other problems with mainsail and ballast system.

 

If one of the top four boats gets a break and catches up with the boat in front of them, the current reported damages suggest the following advantage/disadvantage scenarios for close racing:

Banque pop vs Hugo Boss = adavatage Bangue pop.

 

Hugo Boss vs Maitre Coq = advantage Maitre Coq

 

Maitre Coq vs St. Michel Vibrac = advantage Vibrac.

 

It all depends on the weather and avoiding major catastrophes, but plenty of ways for things to get closer as the start heading North.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This race is far from over. The distance left from Cape Horn is still a couple of Trans-Alantics. The Southern Atlantic has thrown up surprises before. Think about Telefonica coming back at Puma in the 2011-2012 VOR, or the move that Brunel-Sunergy made in the 1997-1998 Whitbread. Granted, the leading boats then were aiming from Brazil not France, but there are wind holes enough for a boat to get trapped between Cape Horn and L’orient. Let alone the risk of a collision of other major breakages.

 

Discounting any catastrophes, there is a lot of other ways that suggest things may get interesting. It is likely that Hugo Boss’ optimum routing will work out very different to the other on account of having to avoid upwind and close hauled on port tack. While Maitre Coq’s routing is severely restricted by his lack of good weather data, and has several other problems with mainsail and ballast system.

 

If one of the top four boats gets a break and catches up with the boat in front of them, the current reported damages suggest the following advantage/disadvantage scenarios for close racing:

Banque pop vs Hugo Boss = adavatage Bangue pop.

 

Hugo Boss vs Maitre Coq = advantage Maitre Coq

 

Maitre Coq vs St. Michel Vibrac = advantage Vibrac.

 

It all depends on the weather and avoiding major catastrophes, but plenty of ways for things to get closer as the start heading North.

 

Indeed. That Telefonica run made me a tracker addict. Still, can't see the advantage for Maitre Coq over Alex. Wouldn't the mutual disadvantages cancel out each other and make it at least an even match? With his experience, a very good boat and current cushion, advantage Alex seems a better call. And yes--so much could still happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That list assumed that part of the gap is closed by a lucky/unlucky break in the weather. With all the problems he has, I also don't see Beyou catching Thomson, without some weather luck. Mind you, that bit of luck could be some very long port tacks leading to Thomson missing a nice wind window; provided the upwind issues on HB are as bad as they sounded in the interview with Mike Golding

 

I think that fit comes to "hand to hand combat" between the two, and there is some upwind tacking Thomson would loose. He seemed to indicate in earlier interviews that he has enormous leeway on port tack without the vertical part of his foil (which makes a lot of sense). However, that also assumes that Beyou can use all of his main when it gets light....

 

However, I do happily admit that I could be completely wrong :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alex missed the train...! 700 Miles for Armel now he is on the Cape Horn Express to victory..! The only thing that can derail Armel now is the Container Express, anything is possible? Perhaps Armel has some sort of radar we don't know about?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, latest sked shows Armel made the transition and picked up 130 nm in 24 hours over Alex. Alex is really stuck--beating due south on port tack. Ouch. Paul going slow, but his VMG of 6.9 is so much better than Alex's 0.3.

 

Guess that means it's Alex's turn to catch a break. Wouter must be even more frustrated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, at least one British boat is going fast. My old 470 friend just sent this pic. Who needs foils.

https://www.facebook.com/SailingMore/photos/pb.168535683283054.-2207520000.1482467978./898914946911787/?type=3 Photo by Jonny McGovern. — with Juan Carlos Gallego Muñoz.

15672650_898914946911787_686509838463309

 

Whoo-hoo. Awesome. Wonder how that touch-down went?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Well that explains everything (although this would be the opposite direction to what you first said). Bura can come in minutes and can be life threatening. 60+ kt squalls within minutes from windstill. Luckily this does not happen quite often in the summer when Adriatic is full of inexperienced tourists. ;)

Btw if we are zooming in on details and put the words we use here on a gold scale, it's not an opposite wind, that's 180 degrees the other way around. That would have been the maestral from the NW. Can we close this pissing contest now?

I apologize if my comments insulted you in any way. It wasn't my intention. I was not implying in any way that your sailing knowledge and/or experience was anything less than appropriate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sweet, the 470 taught me how to sail.

 

beautiful shot from the VG site:

yes indeed it is. No confirmation regarding Paul's destination, allthough it looks like maybe Tahiti?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey guys, in case this hasn't been seen Stephane Le Diraison is looking for help in Melbourne. I can't embed the tweet properly but the meat of it is:

 

 

Australian: we need you! Looking for some contacts in Melbourne, write us at communication@stephanelediraison.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any news on what the situation is with Alex? VMG is under 1 kt in 11 its of wind??? Direction doesn't make sense either...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AT's position (or anyone else's) has not been updated for almost 4 hours, while the weather maps have. When the latest position report came out the Forrs-tracker showed him in a hole of no wind. Expect the next sched to show AT has moved. Will know in 15 minutes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOG 11 knot is not slow in headwind without foil. TWA -55.

 

Alex lost his chances already before Australia. And he was on staaarboard tack at that time. Later it went really bad somewhere when the tracker issue got our attention. There were issues with GRIB files as well on the same time. At least windity layer jumped randomly when scrolled further. Was Alex affected of that too and did he make routing mistakes because of that? I don't want to develop any conspiracy theories but it looks like everything is related because things started to happen on same time.

 

Anyway. I believe that Alex will compete with Jean-Pierre for 3-4th places. Something that we have already seen 4 years ago but this time Alex is on crippled boat. He does not have enough cushion between Jeremie. Maitre CoQ foils looks something that might work well in light upwind as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the forss tracker and the GFS data, looks like Armel might be parked/making slow progress in a becalmed area after the Horn. (16-24 hours from now)

In the meantime Alex will be on staaaarboard tack, broad reaching in 18-20 knots.

 

Not to place any bets, but hope he can the current reduce 700+ gap to around 400.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cannot believe how fkn perfect ALC's course has been to cape Horn and the perfect smooth confitions he's getting around the Horn ! He will soon gybe to get close to the land where there's actually more wind than in the middle of the Drake passage. A very unusual Horn...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOG 11 knot is not slow in headwind without foil. TWA -55.

 

Alex lost his chances already before Australia. And he was on staaarboard tack at that time. Later it went really bad somewhere when the tracker issue got our attention. There were issues with GRIB files as well on the same time. At least windity layer jumped randomly when scrolled further. Was Alex affected of that too and did he make routing mistakes because of that? I don't want to develop any conspiracy theories but it looks like everything is related because things started to happen on same time.

 

Anyway. I believe that Alex will compete with Jean-Pierre for 3-4th places. Something that we have already seen 4 years ago but this time Alex is on crippled boat. He does not have enough cushion between Jeremie. Maitre CoQ foils looks something that might work well in light upwind as well.

Almost 900 NM between Alex and Jeremie and Jeremie's got some problems of his own wrt routing to deal with, so it won't for sure be easy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Armel is in the final throws of delivering up a master class for dealing with the Southern Ocean...how many would have thought 15 days ago after Alex put his stamp on dealing with Atlantic #1 that he would be now scanning the rear vision mirror for the busted chicken? That said still a lot snakes ahead on the race course after the corner...but then again not a lot ladders either for those chasing catch up miles. Riveting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

 

Fair enough from Le Diraison ....

Harken must be concerned, although that kind of things happens..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOG 11 knot is not slow in headwind without foil. TWA -55.

 

Alex lost his chances already before Australia. And he was on staaarboard tack at that time. Later it went really bad somewhere when the tracker issue got our attention. There were issues with GRIB files as well on the same time. At least windity layer jumped randomly when scrolled further. Was Alex affected of that too and did he make routing mistakes because of that? I don't want to develop any conspiracy theories but it looks like everything is related because things started to happen on same time.

 

Anyway. I believe that Alex will compete with Jean-Pierre for 3-4th places. Something that we have already seen 4 years ago but this time Alex is on crippled boat. He does not have enough cushion between Jeremie. Maitre CoQ foils looks something that might work well in light upwind as well.

 

GRIB Files: I believe that racers pull GRIB files directly from providers.

Now there seemed to be discrepancies between both providers, depending on their favourite one, one rider may look a genius at one point and vice-versa.

 

Now ALC may well be a terrific router, after all that's what makes a winner nowadays.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to a Sodebo tweet, ALC is already in the Atlantic.

 

47 days 00 hours & 32 minutes to the Horn.

Against 52 days 06 hours & 18 minutes for current record by Gabart.

 

Heard him live on radio in my car, mind you journalist interviewed him on his special menu for that occasion !! nothing more !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

 

 

Speaking of le diraison,

 

Spoke with a guy from his staff today, they are looking for help for stephane (arrival at harbor, logistics, accomodation, etc, anything will be most welcome), they are quite a small staff and so help from the aussies will be precious

 

Looks like he is planning to go to Melbourne.

 

You can contact them at communication@stephanelediraison.com

 

Thanks for him :)

 

Razcaillou

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the track (not the coords at each positions report) of the boats somewhere available? I would like to try to calculate the number of gybes & tacks for each of them. I think ALC has the lowest gybe/tack to distance ratio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the track (not the coords at each positions report) of the boats somewhere available? I would like to try to calculate the number of gybes & tacks for each of them. I think ALC has the lowest gybe/tack to distance ratio.

 

Chasm (and others) would know best, but I think the json file might have the tracks http://vg2016.regadata.org/en/doc/json or maybe it's a .kmz file you need.

I think you're right about the gybes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alex has @ 42 miles to the Ice line and he is sailing right for it. the wind's would seem to favor starboard tack, albeit slightly upwind, so his course and speed don't make much sense. It is not like he has tons of wind.

No thoughts or side news? Looking at his track, he makes a turn to starboard, sails @ 37 nm then makes another turn to starboard, and one more shift to send him almost due south, on port tack as well. This cannot be strategy since he's sailing slow in what looks to be decent breeze, on port tack, almost away from the mark.

Sailing experts, what the heck?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Armel is in the final throws of delivering up a master class for dealing with the Southern Ocean...how many would have thought 15 days ago after Alex put his stamp on dealing with Atlantic #1 that he would be now scanning the rear vision mirror for the busted chicken? That said still a lot snakes ahead on the race course after the corner...but then again not a lot ladders either for those chasing catch up miles. Riveting.

Flawless- from our perspective. It really puts into perspective what a a feat it was for the then rookie Francois Gabart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alex has @ 42 miles to the Ice line and he is sailing right for it. the wind's would seem to favor starboard tack, albeit slightly upwind, so his course and speed don't make much sense. It is not like he has tons of wind.

 

No thoughts or side news? Looking at his track, he makes a turn to starboard, sails @ 37 nm then makes another turn to starboard, and one more shift to send him almost due south, on port tack as well. This cannot be strategy since he's sailing slow in what looks to be decent breeze, on port tack, almost away from the mark.

 

Sailing experts, what the heck?

 

 

 

I'm not claiming to be an expert, and of course one possibility is that the local conditions don't match the tracker's data, but assuming the wind he's seeing is comparable to what the tracker is showing... my impression is that the wind is from the SE and shifting right, so he's beating on port tack, taking the header for several hours as he goes toward the ice line, and then will tack over and have a nice angle. Not all that different from eating the persistent header for a while before tacking for a good angle in a round-the-buoys race... just longer legs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

 

 

One more example of the failed design and engineering rules for the boats. The boat left the dock to race around the globe alone with a mast design dependent on a single block. How many times was that block loaded incorrectly? When was the last time that block was x-rayed? Each boat that fails and cannot continue does nothing for the sponsors, the race, the sport of sailing, or the industry. The foolish rules are written to foster underbuilt boats for an endurance race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alex has @ 42 miles to the Ice line and he is sailing right for it. the wind's would seem to favor starboard tack, albeit slightly upwind, so his course and speed don't make much sense. It is not like he has tons of wind.

 

No thoughts or side news? Looking at his track, he makes a turn to starboard, sails @ 37 nm then makes another turn to starboard, and one more shift to send him almost due south, on port tack as well. This cannot be strategy since he's sailing slow in what looks to be decent breeze, on port tack, almost away from the mark.

 

Sailing experts, what the heck?

 

 

I'm no expert, but 11 knots close-hauled seems pretty decent. He's going to tack at the AEZ, meanwhile the wind becomes more southerly and he's on a nice starboard reach all the way to the Horn, sailing along the boundary line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Alex has @ 42 miles to the Ice line and he is sailing right for it. the wind's would seem to favor starboard tack, albeit slightly upwind, so his course and speed don't make much sense. It is not like he has tons of wind.

 

No thoughts or side news? Looking at his track, he makes a turn to starboard, sails @ 37 nm then makes another turn to starboard, and one more shift to send him almost due south, on port tack as well. This cannot be strategy since he's sailing slow in what looks to be decent breeze, on port tack, almost away from the mark.

 

Sailing experts, what the heck?

 

I'm no expert, but 11 knots close-hauled seems pretty decent. He's going to tack at the AEZ, meanwhile the wind becomes more southerly and he's on a nice starboard reach all the way to the Horn, sailing along the boundary line.

Maximizing the foil reach is what I suspect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

A memorable vid, great weather to capture the moment, a flawless (close enough) transit of the Pacific, and a well deserved record. No translation of the vid needed. Congrats indeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Alex has @ 42 miles to the Ice line and he is sailing right for it. the wind's would seem to favor starboard tack, albeit slightly upwind, so his course and speed don't make much sense. It is not like he has tons of wind.

 

No thoughts or side news? Looking at his track, he makes a turn to starboard, sails @ 37 nm then makes another turn to starboard, and one more shift to send him almost due south, on port tack as well. This cannot be strategy since he's sailing slow in what looks to be decent breeze, on port tack, almost away from the mark.

 

Sailing experts, what the heck?

I'm no expert, but 11 knots close-hauled seems pretty decent. He's going to tack at the AEZ, meanwhile the wind becomes more southerly and he's on a nice starboard reach all the way to the Horn, sailing along the boundary line.

Maximizing the foil reach is what I suspect.

 

Remora's experts say he should tack soon, if he hasn't already:

post-63767-0-71766900-1482510989_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cannot listen to the audio on my phone but Armel must feel like a million bucks with the home stretch ahead Très bien fait, Armel!

 

Re:Meilhat, sounds as though his team had stroke of luck w/ Maître C'oq locating what is hoped to be suitable replacement cylinder for SMA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Alex has tacked, and looks like a fairly benign starboard reach to the Horn without too many worries for a change in delta to Beyou . Armel's prospects look reeeeeally good: he might have a private elevator to take him 1/2 the way up Argentina. The wind gods liked the champagne. Doubt they'll appreciate Alex's bucket as much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

 

 

One more example of the failed design and engineering rules for the boats. The boat left the dock to race around the globe alone with a mast design dependent on a single block. How many times was that block loaded incorrectly? When was the last time that block was x-rayed? Each boat that fails and cannot continue does nothing for the sponsors, the race, the sport of sailing, or the industry. The foolish rules are written to foster underbuilt boats for an endurance race.

Looking at the picture it well maybe be a component failure... can't wait to hear from Harken what they think..!

Design question is how many a single point of failures could be reasonably engineered out from these boats ..

post-115626-0-46564800-1482516329_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

 

 

One more example of the failed design and engineering rules for the boats. The boat left the dock to race around the globe alone with a mast design dependent on a single block. How many times was that block loaded incorrectly? When was the last time that block was x-rayed? Each boat that fails and cannot continue does nothing for the sponsors, the race, the sport of sailing, or the industry. The foolish rules are written to foster underbuilt boats for an endurance race.

 

You think the rule should prescribe how the runners are designed? WTF?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Alex has tacked, and looks like a fairly benign starboard reach to the Horn without too many worries for a change in delta to Beyou . Armel's prospects look reeeeeally good: he might have a private elevator to take him 1/2 the way up Argentina. The wind gods liked the champagne. Doubt they'll appreciate Alex's bucket as much.

Have I missed something? Alex says that he's slow on Port and then says that he is also slower on Stbd than he'd like. What's up?!?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Today during the live fr, Stéphane Le Diraison explained his dismasting (proper word ?) and it appears that it is one of his Harken backstays blocks that broke, showing it very closely for quite sometime, not sure Harken will be very happy ! :)

See below around 16:15 :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5640sr_le-vendee-live-du-23-12-2016-vendee-globe-2016_sport

 

or below :

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x563ove_j47-stephane-le-diraison-bloque-dans-un-anticyclone-vendee-globe_sport

 

One more example of the failed design and engineering rules for the boats. The boat left the dock to race around the globe alone with a mast design dependent on a single block. How many times was that block loaded incorrectly? When was the last time that block was x-rayed? Each boat that fails and cannot continue does nothing for the sponsors, the race, the sport of sailing, or the industry. The foolish rules are written to foster underbuilt boats for an endurance race.

You think the rule should prescribe how the runners are designed? WTF?
He's just desparately seeking out something to whine about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

So Alex has tacked, and looks like a fairly benign starboard reach to the Horn without too many worries for a change in delta to Beyou . Armel's prospects look reeeeeally good: he might have a private elevator to take him 1/2 the way up Argentina. The wind gods liked the champagne. Doubt they'll appreciate Alex's bucket as much.

Have I missed something? Alex says that he's slow on Port and then says that he is also slower on Stbd than he'd like. What's up?!?

TWA 64, 11kns .. it looks ( unfortunately ) fine to me?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah but even if they got a replacement cylinder he's out of the race, right?

 

Yes, he will need assistance.

 

It's a little heartbreaking to see these guys go through the gut-wrenching, emotional process of facing the inevitable and deciding when to call abandonment. That transition back into the reality of land and mundane details after the intensity of each moment alone at sea. Hats off to all these guys. Respect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah but even if they got a replacement cylinder he's out of the race, right?

 

Yes, he will need assistance.

 

It's a little heartbreaking to see these guys go through the gut-wrenching, emotional process of facing the inevitable and deciding when to call abandonment. That transition back into the reality of land and mundane details after the intensity of each moment alone at sea. Hats off to all these guys. Respect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Ah... the rituals of a Cape Horner. Same sentiment, whatever the dialect. Nice job, ALC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites