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Swanno

Americas Cup final, race 9 and 10

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So, what will it be?

 

8 - 0

7 - 1

6 - 2

 

 

I'm thinking 8 nil, but it will be bloody close.

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Iwindsurf

 

San Francisco forecast valid for Sun, Sep 15 2013

Issued Sat, Sep 14 19:00:00 by meteorologist Mike Godsey - Next scheduled update: 7:30 AM
Special updates issued as needed.

NW flow weakens while weak WSW flow develops aloft. Mostly upper teens with TI and Sherman late PM seeing about 20.

At ≈ 18,000 ft. the Cut-Off Low has is crashing into an upper trough and is being absorbed by the upper trough. The combo is moving towards the Oregon coast and overnight it will push the North Pacific High's surface NW winds mostly south of Waddell depriving the Bay Area on part of its win machine. As the upper trough at ≈ 18,000 ft. comes over the Bay Area the marine layer clouds will deepen more than the last few days, clearing will be a bit later and weak WSW flow develops aloft. Unfortunately the SFO-SAC pressure gradient will peak at .12 weaker than today's .14. This limits the winds to the upper teens to maybe 20 at Crissy OUTSIDE, Treasure Island, Sherman late PM, Waddell and Natural Bridges. Upper teens OUTSIDE Coyote and 3rd. Ave.

Sherman Island: Dawn mid to weak upper teens. Morning weak upper teens. MId day mid to teens. Afternoon winds upper teens to 20.

Coast: Waddell upper teens to. Bodega low teens.

Peninsula: Coyote and 3rd Ave wind weak near shore. In the channel upper teens. Candlestick about 20. Palo Alto weak upper teens NW.

Central Bay: Crissy weak inside low and possibly fog issues. Then upper teens to 20 well outside. Treasure Island upper teens to weak low 20's.

East and North Bay: Toll Plaza mid teens. Berkeley weak upper teens. Pt. Isabel mid teens. Alameda weak low teens.

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I am in West Aus and don't know what it's really like.

 

 

Wooot, someone else who has to get up at 4am on a Monday morning!!! Where are you Swanno?

 

 

 

I'm really hoping for 8 - 0

 

if you look at the sequence so far, its been 3 races TNZ, 1 oracle, 3 races TNZ, 1 Oracle etc etc...

 

All going to plan, that would see me very drunk at 5:30am on Wednesday morning WA time...

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here is today's 7:30am update from iwindsurf

 

 

Meteorologist Forecast

San Francisco forecast valid for Sun, Sep 15 2013

Issued Sun, Sep 15 07:30:00 by meteorologist Mike Godsey - Next scheduled update: 11:30 AM
Special updates issued as needed.

GUSTY, SHIFTY combo as NW flow weakens while weak WSW flow develops aloft. Mostly upper teens with TI and Sherman late PM seeing 20.

As expected the NW ocean winds have faded to low teens as the a upper trough at ≈ 18,000 ft. moves towards California shoving the North Pacific High's southward depriving the Bay Area on part of its wind machine. The approaching upper trough is sending a combo of NW to WSW flow aloft with the hilltops seeing gusts in the upper teens to low 30's. A deeper holey marine layer has pushed far over the East Bay hills but there is still enough NW ocean wind for Año Nuevo clearing. Unfortunately the SFO-SAC pressure gradient, currently at .09, will peak at .12 weaker than yesterdays .14. This limits the winds to the upper teens to maybe faint low 20's with GUSTS stronger. WInd focus: Crissy OUTSIDE, Treasure Island, Sherman dawn and then late PM, Waddell and Natural Bridges. Upper teens OUTSIDE Coyote and 3rd. Ave.

NOTE: we are having trouble with the tables not updating if there is a discrepancy between this text and the tables below USE the text.

NOTE: The NW really ramps up tomorrow. There is a CHANCE this could happen early so Waddell, Crissy, Coyote & 3rd could see winds stronger than forecast.

Sherman Island: Dawn GUSTY upper teens with brief peaks much stronger. Morning upper teens. MId day mid teens. Afternoon winds upper teens to weak low 20's.

Coast: Waddell upper teens to 20. Bodega low teens.

Peninsula: Coyote and 3rd Ave wind weak near shore. In the channel upper teens gusts to low 20's. Candlestick about 20. Palo Alto weak upper teens NW.

Central Bay: Crissy weak inside low and PROBABLY fog issues. Then upper teens to 20 with gusts stronger well outside. Treasure Island upper teens to weak low 20's.

East and North Bay: Toll Plaza mid teens. Berkeley weak upper teens. Pt. Isabel mid teens. Alameda weak low teens.

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Probable scenario:

9/15-- Jimmy gets the start and stays ahead

Alternative scenario:

9/15-- Jimmy screws up the start and Oracle passes TNZ to take the wins.

Go 17ers!

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The near capsize and comments from NZ may reveal a chink in NZ's armour. Dean was saying there wasn't enough hydro to tack the main (NZ's main is driven by rams). If Oracle can force them into a rapid tacking scenario (downspeed tacking duel), would NZ have enough recovery time between tacks to keep the hydro pressurized?

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^^ He said they rushed the tack and weren't organised properly, rather than there being a mechanical issue. If forced to tack quickly the result might be the same though, OTUSA have little to lose by trying ;)

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The near capsize and comments from NZ may reveal a chink in NZ's armour. Dean was saying there wasn't enough hydro to tack the main (NZ's main is driven by rams). If Oracle can force them into a rapid tacking scenario (downspeed tacking duel), would NZ have enough recovery time between tacks to keep the hydro pressurized?

 

It is a good point.

 

But, if Ray is tempted to call for a series of high-speed tacks he will be thinking hydraulics.

 

You can see how, in the drama of close quarters racing, the tactician could "forget" about those poor buggars on the handles!

 

However, I do not think TNZ will have another hydraulics issue.

 

One was enough! Gulp!

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The near capsize and comments from NZ may reveal a chink in NZ's armour. Dean was saying there wasn't enough hydro to tack the main (NZ's main is driven by rams). If Oracle can force them into a rapid tacking scenario (downspeed tacking duel), would NZ have enough recovery time between tacks to keep the hydro pressurized?

 

I think you'll find that Oracle are in the same situation.

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The near capsize and comments from NZ may reveal a chink in NZ's armour. Dean was saying there wasn't enough hydro to tack the main (NZ's main is driven by rams). If Oracle can force them into a rapid tacking scenario (downspeed tacking duel), would NZ have enough recovery time between tacks to keep the hydro pressurized?

These things are hard to tack. They need prep time. And they need flow across the foils. Both teams risk a variety of big problems doing down speed tacks. But I guess OR has demonstrated that they are willing to take some risks... But really, one boat can't force the other into a down speed tacking duel. I'm guessing either team would try to avoid it if they could, but especially ETNZ.

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No, if ETNZ has any problems today, it won't be the same issue as yesterday. It would have analized it and resolved whether it be a mech issue or crew issue, you won't see the same thing happen for the same reason today.

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The near capsize and comments from NZ may reveal a chink in NZ's armour. Dean was saying there wasn't enough hydro to tack the main (NZ's main is driven by rams). If Oracle can force them into a rapid tacking scenario (downspeed tacking duel), would NZ have enough recovery time between tacks to keep the hydro pressurized?

I think you'll find that Oracle are in the same situation.

I think OR wing is self tacking. Big difference in a situation like that.

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The near capsize and comments from NZ may reveal a chink in NZ's armour. Dean was saying there wasn't enough hydro to tack the main (NZ's main is driven by rams). If Oracle can force them into a rapid tacking scenario (downspeed tacking duel), would NZ have enough recovery time between tacks to keep the hydro pressurized?

thats rubbish, they have had tacking duels all week. they just made the call to tack to late. thats it, nothing more in it.

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What is wind???

Windfinder indicates 9 gusting 12, so add 5 so mid teens.

Anyone got more news on that one?

If the wind is not too much, I think NZ may go two more up.

Mind you, the racing ain't over 'til it's over, and OR can pull something out of the bag.

They have huge expertise there.

Some people have thrown a few snide remarks about about RC, but he sure ain't nobodies fool.

He don't get paid the big bucks for nothing.

I ofter wonder what the team meats (deliberate) are like with LE.

He does not like being a looser. Would LOVE to be a fly on the wall at some of the past (and present) meetings.

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Seems JS is a bit of a potty mouth!

 

 

 

Beh, Spithill non brilla certo in eleganza stamattina prima delle regate, così ha twittato suo suo account quanto appeso in base per motivare il team http://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/ la traduzione libera è : Non ci sono io qui, solo battiamo quegli str...i"
Well, Spithill doesn't shine some elegance this morning before the race, so she tweeted her account as Hung according to motivate the teamhttp://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/the free translation is: there are no I here, just beat those ... " (Translated by Bing)

 

NZ Herald

 

Oracle Team USA skipper Jimmy Spithill has raised eye-brows with an aggressive and offensive tweet ahead of today's sixth day of racing in the 34th America's Cup match.

Spithill tweeted an instragram photo of a message apparently posted on the team's noticeboard which read, "There's no I in just beat the f*****s". The photo has since been deleted.

post-33465-0-80282600-1379270698_thumb.jpg

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.
"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.
"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

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Seems JS is a bit of a potty mouth!

 

 

 

Beh, Spithill non brilla certo in eleganza stamattina prima delle regate, così ha twittato suo suo account quanto appeso in base per motivare il team http://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/ la traduzione libera è : Non ci sono io qui, solo battiamo quegli str...i"
Well, Spithill doesn't shine some elegance this morning before the race, so she tweeted her account as Hung according to motivate the teamhttp://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/the free translation is: there are no I here, just beat those ... " (Translated by Bing)

 

NZ Herald

 

Oracle Team USA skipper Jimmy Spithill has raised eye-brows with an aggressive and offensive tweet ahead of today's sixth day of racing in the 34th America's Cup match.

Spithill tweeted an instragram photo of a message apparently posted on the team's noticeboard which read, "There's no I in just beat the f*****s". The photo has since been deleted.

Does anyone over age 8 find this report to be credible? FB and Twitter posts are too easily spoofed. Not even Oracle would post that on a public for team members board.

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.
"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.
"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

 

Huh? In what sense? In the 'it seems to suit my bo make the racing closer between the 2 teams I must neutrally manage' sense?

 

Or...

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Seems JS is a bit of a potty mouth!

 

 

 

Beh, Spithill non brilla certo in eleganza stamattina prima delle regate, così ha twittato suo suo account quanto appeso in base per motivare il team http://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/ la traduzione libera è : Non ci sono io qui, solo battiamo quegli str...i"
Well, Spithill doesn't shine some elegance this morning before the race, so she tweeted her account as Hung according to motivate the teamhttp://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/the free translation is: there are no I here, just beat those ... " (Translated by Bing)

 

NZ Herald

 

Oracle Team USA skipper Jimmy Spithill has raised eye-brows with an aggressive and offensive tweet ahead of today's sixth day of racing in the 34th America's Cup match.

Spithill tweeted an instragram photo of a message apparently posted on the team's noticeboard which read, "There's no I in just beat the f*****s". The photo has since been deleted.

Does anyone over age 8 find this report to be credible? FB and Twitter posts are too easily spoofed. Not even Oracle would post that on a public for team members board.

Honestly who cares if it's true or not. I don't see anything wrong with it.

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Seems JS is a bit of a potty mouth!

 

Farevela

 

 

Beh, Spithill non brilla certo in eleganza stamattina prima delle regate, così ha twittato suo suo account quanto appeso in base per motivare il team http://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/ la traduzione libera è : Non ci sono io qui, solo battiamo quegli str...i"

Well, Spithill doesn't shine some elegance this morning before the race, so she tweeted her account as Hung according to motivate the teamhttp://instagram.com/p/eSbM0_gcrz/the free translation is: there are no I here, just beat those ... " (Translated by Bing)

 

NZ Herald

Oracle Team USA skipper Jimmy Spithill has raised eye-brows with an aggressive and offensive tweet ahead of today's sixth day of racing in the 34th America's Cup match.

Spithill tweeted an instragram photo of a message apparently posted on the team's noticeboard which read, "There's no I in just beat the f*****s". The photo has since been deleted.

Does anyone over age 8 find this report to be credible? FB and Twitter posts are too easily spoofed. Not even Oracle would post that on a public for team members board.

Just need to find someone who follows JS on twitter. I find it credible.

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.
"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.
"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

 

Huh? In what sense? In the 'it seems to suit my bo make the racing closer between the 2 teams I must neutrally manage' sense?

 

Or...

Reading the full article, Murray used 'looking forward' in the 'looking ahead' sense

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.

"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.

"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

Huh? In what sense? In the 'it seems to suit my bo make the racing closer between the 2 teams I must neutrally manage' sense?

 

Or...

Looking forward as in "forcasting" rather than "I'm looking forward"

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Perhaps slightly higher aspect rudders from TNZ today, and perhaps a go-no-go call from the hydro team before tacks? Does anyone have a launch photo?

 

Hopefully the Kiwiana quantum particle generator will not be deployed today!

 

Massive massive high pressure starts for both teams today...

 

AC72 speed record on the cards too?

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.

"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.

"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

Huh? In what sense? In the 'it seems to suit my bo make the racing closer between the 2 teams I must neutrally manage' sense?

 

Or...

Looking forward as in "forcasting" rather than "I'm looking forward"

 

Not sure which bit of my post you guys are reading - but it's apparently not the bit I highlighted and was referring to!?

 

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.

"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.

"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

Huh? In what sense? In the 'it seems to suit my bo make the racing closer between the 2 teams I must neutrally manage' sense?

 

Or...

Looking forward as in "forcasting" rather than "I'm looking forward"

 

Not sure which bit of my post you guys are reading - but it's apparently not the bit I highlighted and was referring to!?

 

 

Presumably Murray is referring to the fact that the strong ebb tide occurs all over the race course -- no "cone" behind Alcatraz and less current differential across the enitre course compared to the typical flood tide situation.

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Perhaps slightly higher aspect rudders from TNZ today, and perhaps a go-no-go call from the hydro team before tacks? Does anyone have a launch photo?

 

Hopefully the Kiwiana quantum particle generator will not be deployed today!

 

Massive massive high pressure starts for both teams today...

 

AC72 speed record on the cards too?

Good chance IMO. Watching the replays from yesterday is like.... WOW!!!

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NBC Sports broadcast is live.

 

Tweet

Scuttlebutt @scuttbutt 9m

"We have now seen more passing in this Cup than any other @americascup dating back to the first defense in 1870." - Gary Jobson

Please remember that we never have had 9 races before either....

Am getting to really, really love this format. It's going to take up some acreage on the Cup base though :)

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On another subject, who are the dumbass schedulers that had the AC at the same time as college football, Nascar race for the chase, NFL football, and US Open tennis?????


Really?

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Looks like they made some mods to NZL5 overnight - new Measurement Certificate issued.

 

7-Zip after today, and we get another nonus day of racing.

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yikes .. from Matt Sheahan, IM says that the forecast for Tuesday looks even stronger

 

http://www.yachtingworld.com/blogs/matthew-sheahan/535260/america-s-cup-day-6-preview

"The good news is that the forecast models show 18-20 knots and the strong ebb tide makes for a more even race course," said regatta director Iain Murray at this morning's briefing.

"The bad news is that the breeze was stronger than expected early on this morning. It's going to be close to the limits out there and as we've seen, when the breeze comes in it does so at 4-5 knots instantaneously." An additional headache is that Monday is not a race day making Tuesday the next available race day.

"Looking forward to Tuesday the breeze is looking even stronger," continued Murray.

Huh? In what sense? In the 'it seems to suit my bo make the racing closer between the 2 teams I must neutrally manage' sense?

 

Or...

Looking forward as in "forcasting" rather than "I'm looking forward"

 

Not sure which bit of my post you guys are reading - but it's apparently not the bit I highlighted and was referring to!?

 

 

Presumably Murray is referring to the fact that the strong ebb tide occurs all over the race course -- no "cone" behind Alcatraz and less current differential across the enitre course compared to the typical flood tide situation.

 

Thank you, that makes sense - was probably what he was getting at, though of course, even if the track was full of mines, it's still the same for both, just more tactical and less about speed.

 

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On another subject, who are the dumbass schedulers that had the AC at the same time as college football, Nascar race for the chase, NFL football, and US Open tennis?????

 

Really?

I know. You'd think all those other events would've been rescheduled.

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On another subject, who are the dumbass schedulers that had the AC at the same time as college football, Nascar race for the chase, NFL football, and US Open tennis?????

 

Really?

I know. You'd think all those other events would've been rescheduled.

 

I like the cut of your jib young man! B)

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