• Announcements

    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

      Sailing Anarchy is a very lightly moderated site. This is by design, to afford a more free atmosphere for discussion. There are plenty of sailing forums you can go to where swearing isn't allowed, confrontation is squelched and, and you can have a moderator finger-wag at you for your attitude. SA tries to avoid that and allow for more adult behavior without moderators editing your posts and whacking knuckles with rulers. We don't have a long list of published "thou shalt nots" either, and this is by design. Too many absolute rules paints us into too many corners. So check the Terms of Service - there IS language there about certain types of behavior that is not permitted. We interpret that lightly and permit a lot of latitude, but we DO reserve the right to take action when something is too extreme to tolerate (too racist, graphic, violent, misogynistic, etc.). Yes, that is subjective, but it allows us discretion. Avoiding a laundry list of rules allows for freedom; don't abuse it. However there ARE a few basic rules that will earn you a suspension, and apparently a brief refresher is in order. 1) Allegations of pedophilia - there is no tolerance for this. So if you make allegations, jokes, innuendo or suggestions about child molestation, child pornography, abuse or inappropriate behavior with minors etc. about someone on this board you will get a time out. This is pretty much automatic; this behavior can have real world effect and is not acceptable. Obviously the subject is not banned when discussion of it is apropos, e.g. talking about an item in the news for instance. But allegations or references directed at or about another poster is verboten. 2) Outing people - providing real world identifiable information about users on the forums who prefer to remain anonymous. Yes, some of us post with our real names - not a problem to use them. However many do NOT, and if you find out someone's name keep it to yourself, first or last. This also goes for other identifying information too - employer information etc. You don't need too many pieces of data to figure out who someone really is these days. Depending on severity you might get anything from a scolding to a suspension - so don't do it. I know it can be confusing sometimes for newcomers, as SA has been around almost twenty years and there are some people that throw their real names around and their current Display Name may not match the name they have out in the public. But if in doubt, you don't want to accidentally out some one so use caution, even if it's a personal friend of yours in real life. 3) Posting While Suspended - If you've earned a timeout (these are fairly rare and hard to get), please observe the suspension. If you create a new account (a "Sock Puppet") and return to the forums to post with it before your suspension is up you WILL get more time added to your original suspension and lose your Socks. This behavior may result a permanent ban, since it shows you have zero respect for the few rules we have and the moderating team that is tasked with supporting them. Check the Terms of Service you agreed to; they apply to the individual agreeing, not the account you created, so don't try to Sea Lawyer us if you get caught. Just don't do it. Those are the three that will almost certainly get you into some trouble. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE DO ONE OF THESE THINGS, please do the following: Refrain from quoting the offending text, it makes the thread cleanup a pain in the rear Press the Report button; it is by far the best way to notify Admins as we will get e-mails. Calling out for Admins in the middle of threads, sending us PM's, etc. - there is no guarantee we will get those in a timely fashion. There are multiple Moderators in multiple time zones around the world, and anyone one of us can handle the Report and all of us will be notified about it. But if you PM one Mod directly and he's off line, the problem will get dealt with much more slowly. Other behaviors that you might want to think twice before doing include: Intentionally disrupting threads and discussions repeatedly. Off topic/content free trolling in threads to disrupt dialog Stalking users around the forums with the intent to disrupt content and discussion Repeated posting of overly graphic or scatological porn content. There are plenty web sites for you to get your freak on, don't do it here. And a brief note to Newbies... No, we will not ban people or censor them for dropping F-bombs on you, using foul language, etc. so please don't report it when one of our members gives you a greeting you may find shocking. We do our best not to censor content here and playing swearword police is not in our job descriptions. Sailing Anarchy is more like a bar than a classroom, so handle it like you would meeting someone a little coarse - don't look for the teacher. Thanks.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

troyk

8 in a Row

260 posts in this topic

I wonder what the Las Vegas oddsmakers have to say about that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real lite 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, why not, sometimes you gotta have faith.

 

But I wont be taking the bubbles out of the fridge just yet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Russell Coutts is going to driving the OTUSA boat from here on out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Russell Coutts is going to driving the OTUSA boat from here on out?

 

Russ is now where DC once was.

 

To old to sail at the very top level - his competitive days in the AC are over.

 

If you think this is nonsense ask yourself what is the average age of the skippers in this AC(?).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder which odds are longer, OR taking 8 straight or NZ capsizing...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Over two events against inferior boats and he didn't have to do it to win.

 

Just saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

 

It's all on a hope and prayer !

 

OR got beaten in their port start today.....shame the race got called off.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real lite 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

tumblr_m27rnmUcBH1ro2l9fo1_500.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, why not, sometimes you gotta have faith.

 

But I wont be taking the bubbles out of the fridge just yet

Faith is a construct to fill an reality void.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah... but If ETNZ bust the boat and have to use boat one...

 

It was concerning that the guys were checking out some damage or other on the undersides of Aotearoa after race 2 was canned. Imagine if one of those ties let go during a race!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

 

Hanging on by a Thin Thread...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder which odds are longer, OR taking 8 straight or NZ capsizing...

 

About the same. The only way Oracle will win 8 straight is if ETNZ capsize.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

now needs to be 9 in a row

 

here's the form guide

 

attachicon.gifstand.jpg

Maths isn't your strong suit is it? Oracle have 1 point and need 9 in total so thats 8 more wins (unless you know of a pending protest that is about to cost them another point).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I wonder which odds are longer, OR taking 8 straight or NZ capsizing...

 

About the same. The only way Oracle will win 8 straight is if ETNZ capsize.

 

Very good point

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Maths isn't your strong suit is it? Oracle have 1 point and need 9 in total so thats 8 more wins (unless you know of a pending protest that is about to cost them another point).

 

error corrected

 

has any AC boat ever been able to string 8 wins together?

 

what about match racing generally?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder what the Las Vegas oddsmakers have to say about that.

 

Assuming equal boat speed and crew work, Oracle have a (1/2)^8 or 1 in 256 chance of winning 8 in a row. Glass half full. That's way better odds than Lotto!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

There is an 'i' in Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Hey, why not, sometimes you gotta have faith.

 

But I wont be taking the bubbles out of the fridge just yet

Faith is a construct to fill an reality void.

Well, maybe, depends what you have faith in. faith is trust in something, I trust a lot of shit I dont understand fully. Faith is not a religous term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

and I cant help wundering if he diddint cum within a proverbyal stabilizer span of winning this wun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

and I cant help wundering if he diddint cum within a proverbyal stabilizer span of winning this wun

 

remember that Russ didnt win those races on his own, he sat at the nucleus of TNZ, even when he went to Alinghi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

There is an 'i' in Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

but there iz no 'i' in Russell put Dean on the helm for the tenth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

That's nice. Did he lose 8 first?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

AND Oracle have more time. They have always had more time.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

That's nice. Did he lose 8 first?

Exaclty

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

 

Worse really, ETNZ won 3

Then ETNZ had an issue with their boat and they lost, Oracle didn't really win.

ETNZ won 3 more.

ETNZ almost Capsize. They were in the lead at the time so could have been expected to win.

Oracle wins one, and quite handsomely. They have a speed edge at this point.

ETNZ win 2 more, the first is super tight and Oracle seem to have a likely speed edge, the second ETNZ has equalized in speed with Oracle.

ETNZ leads in 2 abandoned races.

 

Basically Oracle had one genuine win as opposed to an ETNZ loss.

 

So while it might be nice to see 2 or even 3 more races than just one. The odds are longer than they seem from the numbers for Oracle winning all 8.

 

This is practically speaking now almost academic.

 

The fat lady is clearing her throat...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, If ENTZ win this i bet it will be in a far more satisfying team culture and effort than RCs wins at alinghi, Oracle. etc.

I would rather win in style as the result of a team campaign than the result of throwing money and mercinaries at it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

pity he's not sailing then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Maths isn't your strong suit is it? Oracle have 1 point and need 9 in total so thats 8 more wins (unless you know of a pending protest that is about to cost them another point).

 

error corrected

 

has any AC boat ever been able to string 8 wins together?

 

what about match racing generally?

 

Courageous 1974-77.

 

Now that's the boat, with TH & TT driving, respectively.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

pity he's not sailing then

If I remember correctly Russel Coutts wasn't on Dogzilla during the races in 2010, so his 16 wins can't be correct unless we start to count shore crew and management.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think he and larry hitched a ride on the last race

 

and they weren't allowed to touch anything!

 

there does seem to be some creative accounting...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

 

Worse really, ETNZ won 3

Then ETNZ had an issue with their boat and they lost, Oracle didn't really win.

ETNZ won 3 more.

ETNZ almost Capsize. They were in the lead at the time so could have been expected to win.

Oracle wins one, and quite handsomely. They have a speed edge at this point.

ETNZ win 2 more, the first is super tight and Oracle seem to have a likely speed edge, the second ETNZ has equalized in speed with Oracle.

ETNZ leads in 2 abandoned races.

 

Basically Oracle had one genuine win as opposed to an ETNZ loss.

 

So while it might be nice to see 2 or even 3 more races than just one. The odds are longer than they seem from the numbers for Oracle winning all 8.

 

This is practically speaking now almost academic.

 

The fat lady is clearing her throat...

 

Bollocks! ETNZ nearly tipped because Oracle put the blow torch on their nuts.

 

Thats a bit like saying the Wallabies didn't score a try, the All Blacks defence was just deficient cos of all the runners they had to cover.

 

Give credit where it is due

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real lite 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Man I want some of what you're taking ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now only 7 in a row.

Just saying.

At a 50% winning rate that gives them about 7.1% chance of taking the cup... and 92.9% for ETNZ. :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 in a row (now 7) is entirely possible. Remember TNZ 1992 (up 4:1 & lost 5:3) & 2007 (up 2:1 & lost 5:2)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

I think you'll find that it's ETNZ's turn for 1st race port entry tomorrow.

 

Oracle's 2nd race port entry carries over to the 2nd race tomorrow, not the 1st one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

 

 

Last time I flew Southwest Air there were pigs a plenty flyin B)

 

not so bad if not next to me or bunched in one end or the other :)

 

Ya Never Know - Till Ya Know ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't forget 1983 - the year it all changed.

 

Australia II 3:1 behind after four, and Dennis needed to win just one more. We all know what happened in the next three races.

 

Today was an excellent race. "Peaking late" it may be, but it's certainly exciting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

True but most of Dennis's wins were due to Aus II breakages, the same can't be said for ETNZ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

As I just posted on another thread, 1st and 2nd races of the day have their own alternating sequence.

 

It is irrelevant whether a race is called off before or during the race. The next race sailed in the same time slot will have the same starting sides.

 

For races actually completed (including tomorrow):

 

 

First race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 NZ
2013-09-08 USA
2013-09-10 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-14 NZ
2013-09-15 USA
2013-09-18 NZ
2013-09-19 USA
2013-09-20 NZ
Second race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 USA
2013-09-08 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-15 NZ
2013-09-20 USA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

As I just posted on another thread, 1st and 2nd races of the day have their own alternating sequence.

 

It is irrelevant whether a race is called off before or during the race. The next race sailed in the same time slot will have the same starting sides.

 

For races actually completed (including tomorrow):

 

 

First race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 NZ
2013-09-08 USA
2013-09-10 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-14 NZ
2013-09-15 USA
2013-09-18 NZ
2013-09-19 USA
2013-09-20 NZ
Second race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 USA
2013-09-08 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-15 NZ
2013-09-20 USA

 

Can you explain the highlights in bold [1st and 2nd race being the same] ? Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle looked really fast today. Wouldn't be insane to put a loose $20 on them at the betting shop.

Just saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

As I just posted on another thread, 1st and 2nd races of the day have their own alternating sequence.

 

It is irrelevant whether a race is called off before or during the race. The next race sailed in the same time slot will have the same starting sides.

 

For races actually completed (including tomorrow):

 

 

First race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 NZ
2013-09-08 USA
2013-09-10 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-14 NZ
2013-09-15 USA
2013-09-18 NZ
2013-09-19 USA
2013-09-20 NZ
Second race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 USA
2013-09-08 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-15 NZ
2013-09-20 USA

 

Can you explain the highlights in bold [1st and 2nd race being the same] ? Thanks

 

There is nothing to explain. The first and second races on a day are totally unrelated to each other as far as who starts on which side are concerned.

 

Has two races been completed today, Oracle would have had port entry in both of them, and NZ port entry in both races tomorrow. And Oracle port entry in both races on the day after *that*. Assuming no postponements, and the match not ending.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If OR got the 8, would it be the biggest sporting comeback of all time?

And for TNZ, would it be the biggest choke of all time?

 

Early days yet but if OR pulled off a double tomorrow there could be some sweaty palms developing south of the equator.

 

Just saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Wish it were so, but not gonna happen. ETNZ just made an uncharacteristically poor start and couldn't get it done after that.

 

(Although they sure sucked on the second downwind leg. What was with that?)

 

At any rate, they just need to get the jump on Oracle in one more race, which is surely bound to happen. JS is a good starter but everyone bodges starts occasionally. Everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is nothing to explain. The first and second races on a day are totally unrelated to each other as far as who starts on which side are concerned.

 

Has two races been completed today, Oracle would have had port entry in both of them, and NZ port entry in both races tomorrow. And Oracle port entry in both races on the day after *that*. Assuming no postponements, and the match not ending.

 

Makes perfect sense,thank you, wanted to be dead sure before this descended into another 'is it best to 9 or 17' style question!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They were less than 5ft from going over already , anything could happen .

 

They need to change this thread title to 7 now anyway :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They were less than 5ft from going over already , anything could happen .

 

They need to change this thread title to 7 now anyway :)

 

Nope, cos if Oracle win the cup they will have won 8 in a row.

 

Given that Oracle's boat seems to be going faster now, its not a forgone conclusion.

Although, its pretty likely ETNZ will get another one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

ETNZ flips over in any race, game over.

Exactly the same for Oracle as well!!!

Not necessarily. Isn't it safe to assume, of the backup boats, OR1 is the more refined and matched to her sister than ETNZs 1st boat?

 

WetHog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not enough time 4 the races at the average of 1 per day, then the permit runs out. What happens if its not extended?

call it draw? count back? whose won most points?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not enough time 4 the races at the average of 1 per day, then the permit runs out. What happens if its not extended?

call it draw? count back? whose won most points?

 

i'd suggest like a count back

 

whoever was leading when races got called off

 

gets 1/2 a point

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

Better than 7, but not much.

 

Just saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

 

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

ETNZ flips over in any race, game over.

Exactly the same for Oracle as well!!!

No it's not . ET v1 is no where ready to sail and would need parts from v2 to even get on the water . I was thinking that JS may have taken a shot at ET on the close cross today and really helped the cause but at those speeds the probability of guys getting seriously hurt even if it would have won them the cup was too high .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

 

 

I'd say if they win the next 3 races their odds would be better than 50:50

 

more like 75:25 to go all the way ^_^

 

as an X charger Fan I have watched this play out Waaaaaaaay Tooooooo Many times

 

When the game was in the Bag and nothing left to do but run out the clock

 

 

 

TNZ still needs to beat OTUSA in another race after providing a Proper Trial Horse & turning their cards Face-Up 14 times already ;)

 

Considering All OTUSA has had to do to get from EB holding/hosting the Cup to where they are today - There is Little left to do

 

I can't imagine the Pressure JS went through and with every OTUSA Win DB Must Feel >2X the Pressure of the day before

 

WHO THE FACK Can Handle "THAT" ???

 

If David Wells could walk out for the New York Yankees in the World Series, look at the first batter and say to him self

 

Self "Look - Strike out the next 27 batters" and You'll be remembered as

 

The 2nd guy from Pt Loma HS in DAGO to pitch a World series No-Hitter & for the Yankees to boot (And He Did)

 

 

 

Then Surely JS can say "OK - OK, QUIT YELLING AT ME" & I'll go Sweep the Rest (And Get It Done)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

 

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

 

If you've got a 2/3 chance of winning any given race then you've got an 8.78% chance of winning six in a row.

 

If it's actually 50/50 then it's 1.5% chance to get six in a row.

 

To have a 50% chance of retaining the cup from here Oracle needs an 89% chance of winning each individual race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

 

Worse really, ETNZ won 3

Then ETNZ had an issue with their boat and they lost, Oracle didn't really win.

ETNZ won 3 more.

ETNZ almost Capsize. They were in the lead at the time so could have been expected to win.

Oracle wins one, and quite handsomely. They have a speed edge at this point.

ETNZ win 2 more, the first is super tight and Oracle seem to have a likely speed edge, the second ETNZ has equalized in speed with Oracle.

ETNZ leads in 2 abandoned races.

 

Basically Oracle had one genuine win as opposed to an ETNZ loss.

 

So while it might be nice to see 2 or even 3 more races than just one. The odds are longer than they seem from the numbers for Oracle winning all 8.

 

This is practically speaking now almost academic.

 

The fat lady is clearing her throat...

 

hmmm . . . you wer saying ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's gone from 8 in a row required to now only 4 in a row required.

 

Just saying.

Its still eight in a row.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back in 2004, the Red Sox were down 0-3 against the Yankees and won 4 in a row to take the ALCS. The Red Sox were behind 3-4 going into the bottom of the 9th in game 4. The Red Sox scored a single run to tie and won that game in extra innings. In the World Series they swept the Cardinals. That was 8 wins in a row to win the title after being down 0-3. A seemingly impossible outcome but it happened. It could happen in AC34 as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

underdog_wallpaper_73598_1024x768.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only 3 in a row needed now. Just saying.

 

Faaark!

 

 

I expect a post from you about 1:45 PST tomorrow saying 2 more to go!!!

 

Good call my friend!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can't call OR the underdog now. They have what appears to be a superior boat. They have caught up with and surpassed NZ. Just look at their upwind foiling - amazing stuff.

 

If ETNZ can win a start and lead at mark 1, and sail another flawless race as they have so many time before, they can still win. But it will take match racing genius to keep their now slightly slower boat ahead for the duration of the race. Which ETNZ have got ... they just have to find it in them again.

 

Go ETNZ!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^^ incorrect OTUSA was, is and shall be the

 

underdog_wallpaper_73598_1024x768.jpg

 

Till they win their 11th race

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back on this streak. The helter skelter nature of the wind, delayed starts, wind limits, etc, etc no doubt help OR.

 

If you think OR could go out 4 straight days in a row and beat ETNZ twice within 2 hours you're crazy.

 

OR loves the one race a day drama. It allows ETNZ to stew.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only 2 in a row needed now. Faaaarrrgaaan hellll.

 

Hope I didn't jinx NZ starting this thread!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back on this streak. The helter skelter nature of the wind, delayed starts, wind limits, etc, etc no doubt help OR.

 

If you think OR could go out 4 straight days in a row and beat ETNZ twice within 2 hours you're crazy.

 

OR loves the one race a day drama. It allows ETNZ to stew.

You sure love to make up unsubstantiated shit. Perhaps OR is just sailing better than ETNZ right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^^ incorrect OTUSA was, is and shall be the

 

underdog_wallpaper_73598_1024x768.jpg

 

Till they win their 11th race

 

 

oh yeah thos poor widdle wace team backed by the 5th richest man in the world.....oh the underdogs.....they set all the rules and are racing on their home turf......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well they did it.

 

Holy Crap! What a thread. Put it out there, take the heat and then share a little glory with the home team. Well done. Precious few attaboys until today though.

 

Koukel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finally got a little space after losing some time at work during following and visiting the AC, to watch Race 19 on Youtube. My new (and temporary) sig is a snapshot from during the broadcast after the Win.

 

It really is

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

 

Look up in the sky :)

 

flying-pigs.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

 

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

 

If you've got a 2/3 chance of winning any given race then you've got an 8.78% chance of winning six in a row.

 

If it's actually 50/50 then it's 1.5% chance to get six in a row.

 

To have a 50% chance of retaining the cup from here Oracle needs an 89% chance of winning each individual race.

 

Good thing OR didn't have any statisticians as sailors on board the crew. They may never have realized they could have won and might have given up or just forfeited based on this logic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

oh yeah thos poor widdle blah blah blah...

 

Anybody see fat face or has he fallen of the face of the earth ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

 

now needs to be 8 in a row

 

here's the form guide

 

attachicon.gifstand.jpg

Just amazing.

 

2ew1jyg.jpg

Still love that graphic for the trend.

 

+++*+++**++********

 

When the last two +'s happened (immediately after the card got thrown and the switch to BA) it looked an impossible task. After the first two *'s that followed it was an 'oh-shit, are they suddenly the faster boat? is this win possible??'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking back, I think I started this thread when Team NZ was 8-1 up because subconsciously I had an uncomfortable inkling that Barker might choke.

 

 

 

I think it was what was going on with Barker in the press conferences that put doubts in my mind. He came across weak and feeble during the pressies, so the choke was on the cards.

 

I feel the majority of those 8 races were lost before the starting gun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe ETNZ didn't take to losing races like Oracle did. I almost ran into - literally - Tienpont and Kirby - walking across AC Park. At first I mistook them for ETNZ team members - they held themselves erect and their posture elicited "champion". But at the time they were way down - I actually wondered how their spirits could be so high. Think they just lost race 7.

 

ETNZ, OTOH, started to look beaten before it was all over. It was shocking how demoralized the entire team became after losing the penultimate race. Perhaps, in their heart of hearts, they felt it was over at 8 to 7. Or maybe there was something else going on with the team, internally, towards the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking back, I think I started this thread when Team NZ was 8-1 up because subconsciously I had an uncomfortable inkling that Barker might choke.

 

 

 

 

I think it was what was going on with Barker in the press conferences that put doubts in my mind. He came across weak and feeble during the pressies, so the choke was on the cards.

 

 

I feel the majority of those 8 races were lost before the starting gun.

 

One of the best threads ever started, but in all honesty it could have also been that crate shipped in mid series from Core Composites that also helped. Funny when that NZ reporter asked JS about it in the press conference he just smiled - bet she feels pretty smart now that RC said it probably contained a case of beer :lol: .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe ETNZ didn't take to losing races like Oracle did. I almost ran into - literally - Tienpont and Kirby - walking across AC Park. At first I mistook them for ETNZ team members - they held themselves erect and their posture elicited "champion". But at the time they were way down - I actually wondered how their spirits could be so high. Think they just lost race 7.

 

ETNZ, OTOH, started to look beaten before it was all over. It was shocking how demoralized the entire team became after losing the penultimate race. Perhaps, in their heart of hearts, they felt it was over at 8 to 7. Or maybe there was something else going on with the team, internally, towards the end.

 

In all fairness they came in here with the weight of a nation on their shoulders pretty confident they had everything sorted out with their 2500 lb Dell computer and extensive lead in foiling. The two point penalty probably reinforced their confidence, especially after the first 7 races.

 

Then came the infamous race 8. Up to that point they appeared infallible - until the crew work error brought them to within 0.5 degrees of capsizing, which likely would have cost them the series had it happened. Once they heard DB yelling "hydro, hydro, hydro" the whole event had to flash before their eyes. I have a great series of shots of the incident that happened right in front of us taken by a photog I was with at Crissy field. Amazing to watch live. Maybe I'll get around to posting them.

 

From their it started to go downhill for them, and only got worse with each press release. "Can you imagine what a comeback that would be ?" as JS looked directly at DB and he snapped his head to look back at JS. All time classic line of the event, without question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites