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EliteDangerous

8 in a Row

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I wonder what the Las Vegas oddsmakers have to say about that.

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real lite 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

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Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Russell Coutts is going to driving the OTUSA boat from here on out?

 

Russ is now where DC once was.

 

To old to sail at the very top level - his competitive days in the AC are over.

 

If you think this is nonsense ask yourself what is the average age of the skippers in this AC(?).

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I wonder which odds are longer, OR taking 8 straight or NZ capsizing...

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Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Over two events against inferior boats and he didn't have to do it to win.

 

Just saying

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

 

It's all on a hope and prayer !

 

OR got beaten in their port start today.....shame the race got called off.....

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real lite 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

tumblr_m27rnmUcBH1ro2l9fo1_500.gif

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Hey, why not, sometimes you gotta have faith.

 

But I wont be taking the bubbles out of the fridge just yet

Faith is a construct to fill an reality void.

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Ah... but If ETNZ bust the boat and have to use boat one...

 

It was concerning that the guys were checking out some damage or other on the undersides of Aotearoa after race 2 was canned. Imagine if one of those ties let go during a race!!!

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

 

Hanging on by a Thin Thread...

 

 

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now needs to be 9 in a row

 

here's the form guide

 

attachicon.gifstand.jpg

Maths isn't your strong suit is it? Oracle have 1 point and need 9 in total so thats 8 more wins (unless you know of a pending protest that is about to cost them another point).

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I wonder which odds are longer, OR taking 8 straight or NZ capsizing...

 

About the same. The only way Oracle will win 8 straight is if ETNZ capsize.

 

Very good point

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Maths isn't your strong suit is it? Oracle have 1 point and need 9 in total so thats 8 more wins (unless you know of a pending protest that is about to cost them another point).

 

error corrected

 

has any AC boat ever been able to string 8 wins together?

 

what about match racing generally?

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I wonder what the Las Vegas oddsmakers have to say about that.

 

Assuming equal boat speed and crew work, Oracle have a (1/2)^8 or 1 in 256 chance of winning 8 in a row. Glass half full. That's way better odds than Lotto!

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Hey, why not, sometimes you gotta have faith.

 

But I wont be taking the bubbles out of the fridge just yet

Faith is a construct to fill an reality void.

Well, maybe, depends what you have faith in. faith is trust in something, I trust a lot of shit I dont understand fully. Faith is not a religous term.

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"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

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Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

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"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

and I cant help wundering if he diddint cum within a proverbyal stabilizer span of winning this wun

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"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

and I cant help wundering if he diddint cum within a proverbyal stabilizer span of winning this wun

 

remember that Russ didnt win those races on his own, he sat at the nucleus of TNZ, even when he went to Alinghi

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Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

There is an 'i' in Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

but there iz no 'i' in Russell put Dean on the helm for the tenth

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Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

 

Worse really, ETNZ won 3

Then ETNZ had an issue with their boat and they lost, Oracle didn't really win.

ETNZ won 3 more.

ETNZ almost Capsize. They were in the lead at the time so could have been expected to win.

Oracle wins one, and quite handsomely. They have a speed edge at this point.

ETNZ win 2 more, the first is super tight and Oracle seem to have a likely speed edge, the second ETNZ has equalized in speed with Oracle.

ETNZ leads in 2 abandoned races.

 

Basically Oracle had one genuine win as opposed to an ETNZ loss.

 

So while it might be nice to see 2 or even 3 more races than just one. The odds are longer than they seem from the numbers for Oracle winning all 8.

 

This is practically speaking now almost academic.

 

The fat lady is clearing her throat...

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Also, If ENTZ win this i bet it will be in a far more satisfying team culture and effort than RCs wins at alinghi, Oracle. etc.

I would rather win in style as the result of a team campaign than the result of throwing money and mercinaries at it.

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"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

pity he's not sailing then

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Maths isn't your strong suit is it? Oracle have 1 point and need 9 in total so thats 8 more wins (unless you know of a pending protest that is about to cost them another point).

 

error corrected

 

has any AC boat ever been able to string 8 wins together?

 

what about match racing generally?

 

Courageous 1974-77.

 

Now that's the boat, with TH & TT driving, respectively.

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"Russell Coutts won 9 in a row"

 

"an impressive record in the America's Cup, with 16 wins and no losses since 1995 winning four America's Cups (1995, 2000, 2003, 2010" wikipedia

 

pity he's not sailing then

If I remember correctly Russel Coutts wasn't on Dogzilla during the races in 2010, so his 16 wins can't be correct unless we start to count shore crew and management.

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i think he and larry hitched a ride on the last race

 

and they weren't allowed to touch anything!

 

there does seem to be some creative accounting...

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Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

 

Worse really, ETNZ won 3

Then ETNZ had an issue with their boat and they lost, Oracle didn't really win.

ETNZ won 3 more.

ETNZ almost Capsize. They were in the lead at the time so could have been expected to win.

Oracle wins one, and quite handsomely. They have a speed edge at this point.

ETNZ win 2 more, the first is super tight and Oracle seem to have a likely speed edge, the second ETNZ has equalized in speed with Oracle.

ETNZ leads in 2 abandoned races.

 

Basically Oracle had one genuine win as opposed to an ETNZ loss.

 

So while it might be nice to see 2 or even 3 more races than just one. The odds are longer than they seem from the numbers for Oracle winning all 8.

 

This is practically speaking now almost academic.

 

The fat lady is clearing her throat...

 

Bollocks! ETNZ nearly tipped because Oracle put the blow torch on their nuts.

 

Thats a bit like saying the Wallabies didn't score a try, the All Blacks defence was just deficient cos of all the runners they had to cover.

 

Give credit where it is due

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real lite 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Man I want some of what you're taking ;)

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Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

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Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

I think you'll find that it's ETNZ's turn for 1st race port entry tomorrow.

 

Oracle's 2nd race port entry carries over to the 2nd race tomorrow, not the 1st one.

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

 

 

Last time I flew Southwest Air there were pigs a plenty flyin B)

 

not so bad if not next to me or bunched in one end or the other :)

 

Ya Never Know - Till Ya Know ;)

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Don't forget 1983 - the year it all changed.

 

Australia II 3:1 behind after four, and Dennis needed to win just one more. We all know what happened in the next three races.

 

Today was an excellent race. "Peaking late" it may be, but it's certainly exciting.

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Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

As I just posted on another thread, 1st and 2nd races of the day have their own alternating sequence.

 

It is irrelevant whether a race is called off before or during the race. The next race sailed in the same time slot will have the same starting sides.

 

For races actually completed (including tomorrow):

 

 

First race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 NZ
2013-09-08 USA
2013-09-10 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-14 NZ
2013-09-15 USA
2013-09-18 NZ
2013-09-19 USA
2013-09-20 NZ
Second race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 USA
2013-09-08 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-15 NZ
2013-09-20 USA

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Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

As I just posted on another thread, 1st and 2nd races of the day have their own alternating sequence.

 

It is irrelevant whether a race is called off before or during the race. The next race sailed in the same time slot will have the same starting sides.

 

For races actually completed (including tomorrow):

 

 

First race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 NZ
2013-09-08 USA
2013-09-10 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-14 NZ
2013-09-15 USA
2013-09-18 NZ
2013-09-19 USA
2013-09-20 NZ
Second race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 USA
2013-09-08 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-15 NZ
2013-09-20 USA

 

Can you explain the highlights in bold [1st and 2nd race being the same] ? Thanks

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Will someone please tell me what TNZ have to do to get a morning start?

Do you mean first race port start?

If so they have to wait their turn, if the second race had gone off today and OR had run they would have had two port starts tomorrow. Now OR will get port in the morning. If there is a second race ETNZ will get it second race.

 

As I just posted on another thread, 1st and 2nd races of the day have their own alternating sequence.

 

It is irrelevant whether a race is called off before or during the race. The next race sailed in the same time slot will have the same starting sides.

 

For races actually completed (including tomorrow):

 

 

First race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 NZ
2013-09-08 USA
2013-09-10 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-14 NZ
2013-09-15 USA
2013-09-18 NZ
2013-09-19 USA
2013-09-20 NZ
Second race of the day, port entry boat
2013-09-07 USA
2013-09-08 NZ
2013-09-12 USA
2013-09-15 NZ
2013-09-20 USA

 

Can you explain the highlights in bold [1st and 2nd race being the same] ? Thanks

 

There is nothing to explain. The first and second races on a day are totally unrelated to each other as far as who starts on which side are concerned.

 

Has two races been completed today, Oracle would have had port entry in both of them, and NZ port entry in both races tomorrow. And Oracle port entry in both races on the day after *that*. Assuming no postponements, and the match not ending.

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If OR got the 8, would it be the biggest sporting comeback of all time?

And for TNZ, would it be the biggest choke of all time?

 

Early days yet but if OR pulled off a double tomorrow there could be some sweaty palms developing south of the equator.

 

Just saying.

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Russell Coutts won 9 in a row.

 

Just saying.

 

Wish it were so, but not gonna happen. ETNZ just made an uncharacteristically poor start and couldn't get it done after that.

 

(Although they sure sucked on the second downwind leg. What was with that?)

 

At any rate, they just need to get the jump on Oracle in one more race, which is surely bound to happen. JS is a good starter but everyone bodges starts occasionally. Everyone.

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There is nothing to explain. The first and second races on a day are totally unrelated to each other as far as who starts on which side are concerned.

 

Has two races been completed today, Oracle would have had port entry in both of them, and NZ port entry in both races tomorrow. And Oracle port entry in both races on the day after *that*. Assuming no postponements, and the match not ending.

 

Makes perfect sense,thank you, wanted to be dead sure before this descended into another 'is it best to 9 or 17' style question!

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They were less than 5ft from going over already , anything could happen .

 

They need to change this thread title to 7 now anyway :)

 

Nope, cos if Oracle win the cup they will have won 8 in a row.

 

Given that Oracle's boat seems to be going faster now, its not a forgone conclusion.

Although, its pretty likely ETNZ will get another one.

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ETNZ flips over in any race, game over.

Exactly the same for Oracle as well!!!

Not necessarily. Isn't it safe to assume, of the backup boats, OR1 is the more refined and matched to her sister than ETNZs 1st boat?

 

WetHog

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not enough time 4 the races at the average of 1 per day, then the permit runs out. What happens if its not extended?

call it draw? count back? whose won most points?

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not enough time 4 the races at the average of 1 per day, then the permit runs out. What happens if its not extended?

call it draw? count back? whose won most points?

 

i'd suggest like a count back

 

whoever was leading when races got called off

 

gets 1/2 a point

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Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

Better than 7, but not much.

 

Just saying.

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Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

 

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

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ETNZ flips over in any race, game over.

Exactly the same for Oracle as well!!!

No it's not . ET v1 is no where ready to sail and would need parts from v2 to even get on the water . I was thinking that JS may have taken a shot at ET on the close cross today and really helped the cause but at those speeds the probability of guys getting seriously hurt even if it would have won them the cup was too high .

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Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

 

 

I'd say if they win the next 3 races their odds would be better than 50:50

 

more like 75:25 to go all the way ^_^

 

as an X charger Fan I have watched this play out Waaaaaaaay Tooooooo Many times

 

When the game was in the Bag and nothing left to do but run out the clock

 

 

 

TNZ still needs to beat OTUSA in another race after providing a Proper Trial Horse & turning their cards Face-Up 14 times already ;)

 

Considering All OTUSA has had to do to get from EB holding/hosting the Cup to where they are today - There is Little left to do

 

I can't imagine the Pressure JS went through and with every OTUSA Win DB Must Feel >2X the Pressure of the day before

 

WHO THE FACK Can Handle "THAT" ???

 

If David Wells could walk out for the New York Yankees in the World Series, look at the first batter and say to him self

 

Self "Look - Strike out the next 27 batters" and You'll be remembered as

 

The 2nd guy from Pt Loma HS in DAGO to pitch a World series No-Hitter & for the Yankees to boot (And He Did)

 

 

 

Then Surely JS can say "OK - OK, QUIT YELLING AT ME" & I'll go Sweep the Rest (And Get It Done)

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Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

 

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

 

If you've got a 2/3 chance of winning any given race then you've got an 8.78% chance of winning six in a row.

 

If it's actually 50/50 then it's 1.5% chance to get six in a row.

 

To have a 50% chance of retaining the cup from here Oracle needs an 89% chance of winning each individual race.

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Possible but increasingly unlikely, I was a little edgey at 7-1 but at 8-1 i am getting pretty confident. The last 3 days sailing havent all gone well on paper but the races included one race where ETNZ lead but had an issue, a race where etnz won the start and lead that was called off, another race where etnz where owning the start that was called off. So really of those potentially 6 races Oracle has looked convincing in ONE.

 

Worse really, ETNZ won 3

Then ETNZ had an issue with their boat and they lost, Oracle didn't really win.

ETNZ won 3 more.

ETNZ almost Capsize. They were in the lead at the time so could have been expected to win.

Oracle wins one, and quite handsomely. They have a speed edge at this point.

ETNZ win 2 more, the first is super tight and Oracle seem to have a likely speed edge, the second ETNZ has equalized in speed with Oracle.

ETNZ leads in 2 abandoned races.

 

Basically Oracle had one genuine win as opposed to an ETNZ loss.

 

So while it might be nice to see 2 or even 3 more races than just one. The odds are longer than they seem from the numbers for Oracle winning all 8.

 

This is practically speaking now almost academic.

 

The fat lady is clearing her throat...

 

hmmm . . . you wer saying ?

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Back in 2004, the Red Sox were down 0-3 against the Yankees and won 4 in a row to take the ALCS. The Red Sox were behind 3-4 going into the bottom of the 9th in game 4. The Red Sox scored a single run to tie and won that game in extra innings. In the World Series they swept the Cardinals. That was 8 wins in a row to win the title after being down 0-3. A seemingly impossible outcome but it happened. It could happen in AC34 as well.

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You can't call OR the underdog now. They have what appears to be a superior boat. They have caught up with and surpassed NZ. Just look at their upwind foiling - amazing stuff.

 

If ETNZ can win a start and lead at mark 1, and sail another flawless race as they have so many time before, they can still win. But it will take match racing genius to keep their now slightly slower boat ahead for the duration of the race. Which ETNZ have got ... they just have to find it in them again.

 

Go ETNZ!

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^^^ incorrect OTUSA was, is and shall be the

 

underdog_wallpaper_73598_1024x768.jpg

 

Till they win their 11th race

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Back on this streak. The helter skelter nature of the wind, delayed starts, wind limits, etc, etc no doubt help OR.

 

If you think OR could go out 4 straight days in a row and beat ETNZ twice within 2 hours you're crazy.

 

OR loves the one race a day drama. It allows ETNZ to stew.

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Back on this streak. The helter skelter nature of the wind, delayed starts, wind limits, etc, etc no doubt help OR.

 

If you think OR could go out 4 straight days in a row and beat ETNZ twice within 2 hours you're crazy.

 

OR loves the one race a day drama. It allows ETNZ to stew.

You sure love to make up unsubstantiated shit. Perhaps OR is just sailing better than ETNZ right now.

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^^^ incorrect OTUSA was, is and shall be the

 

underdog_wallpaper_73598_1024x768.jpg

 

Till they win their 11th race

 

 

oh yeah thos poor widdle wace team backed by the 5th richest man in the world.....oh the underdogs.....they set all the rules and are racing on their home turf......

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Well they did it.

 

Holy Crap! What a thread. Put it out there, take the heat and then share a little glory with the home team. Well done. Precious few attaboys until today though.

 

Koukel

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Finally got a little space after losing some time at work during following and visiting the AC, to watch Race 19 on Youtube. My new (and temporary) sig is a snapshot from during the broadcast after the Win.

 

It really is

.

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Oracle fluke 2 wins tomorrow. They get 2 port entries so who knows.

2 in a row.

Gear problems in team nz first race. Oracle win. Nz play pass card.

3 in a row.

Real light 8 kt winds favour oracle.

5 in a row.

Now under pressure DB stuffs up his next two starts. Team oracle on a roll.

7 in a row.

It's all on!

Yeah. And pigs will fly.

 

Look up in the sky :)

 

flying-pigs.jpg

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Now only 6 in a row required.

Just saying.

 

And OUSA have won 4 of the last 6. Each race is independent of the last so just because OUSA need 6:1 doesn't lessen their odds of winning any single race. And each one they win shortens the odds that they will win overall—5 more wins and they're at 50:50. :rolleyes:

 

Still very long odds to keep the cup though.

 

If you've got a 2/3 chance of winning any given race then you've got an 8.78% chance of winning six in a row.

 

If it's actually 50/50 then it's 1.5% chance to get six in a row.

 

To have a 50% chance of retaining the cup from here Oracle needs an 89% chance of winning each individual race.

 

Good thing OR didn't have any statisticians as sailors on board the crew. They may never have realized they could have won and might have given up or just forfeited based on this logic.

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now needs to be 8 in a row

 

here's the form guide

 

attachicon.gifstand.jpg

Just amazing.

 

2ew1jyg.jpg

Still love that graphic for the trend.

 

+++*+++**++********

 

When the last two +'s happened (immediately after the card got thrown and the switch to BA) it looked an impossible task. After the first two *'s that followed it was an 'oh-shit, are they suddenly the faster boat? is this win possible??'

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Looking back, I think I started this thread when Team NZ was 8-1 up because subconsciously I had an uncomfortable inkling that Barker might choke.

 

 

 

I think it was what was going on with Barker in the press conferences that put doubts in my mind. He came across weak and feeble during the pressies, so the choke was on the cards.

 

I feel the majority of those 8 races were lost before the starting gun.

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