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    • UnderDawg

      A Few Simple Rules   05/22/2017

      Sailing Anarchy is a very lightly moderated site. This is by design, to afford a more free atmosphere for discussion. There are plenty of sailing forums you can go to where swearing isn't allowed, confrontation is squelched and, and you can have a moderator finger-wag at you for your attitude. SA tries to avoid that and allow for more adult behavior without moderators editing your posts and whacking knuckles with rulers. We don't have a long list of published "thou shalt nots" either, and this is by design. Too many absolute rules paints us into too many corners. So check the Terms of Service - there IS language there about certain types of behavior that is not permitted. We interpret that lightly and permit a lot of latitude, but we DO reserve the right to take action when something is too extreme to tolerate (too racist, graphic, violent, misogynistic, etc.). Yes, that is subjective, but it allows us discretion. Avoiding a laundry list of rules allows for freedom; don't abuse it. However there ARE a few basic rules that will earn you a suspension, and apparently a brief refresher is in order. 1) Allegations of pedophilia - there is no tolerance for this. So if you make allegations, jokes, innuendo or suggestions about child molestation, child pornography, abuse or inappropriate behavior with minors etc. about someone on this board you will get a time out. This is pretty much automatic; this behavior can have real world effect and is not acceptable. Obviously the subject is not banned when discussion of it is apropos, e.g. talking about an item in the news for instance. But allegations or references directed at or about another poster is verboten. 2) Outing people - providing real world identifiable information about users on the forums who prefer to remain anonymous. Yes, some of us post with our real names - not a problem to use them. However many do NOT, and if you find out someone's name keep it to yourself, first or last. This also goes for other identifying information too - employer information etc. You don't need too many pieces of data to figure out who someone really is these days. Depending on severity you might get anything from a scolding to a suspension - so don't do it. I know it can be confusing sometimes for newcomers, as SA has been around almost twenty years and there are some people that throw their real names around and their current Display Name may not match the name they have out in the public. But if in doubt, you don't want to accidentally out some one so use caution, even if it's a personal friend of yours in real life. 3) Posting While Suspended - If you've earned a timeout (these are fairly rare and hard to get), please observe the suspension. If you create a new account (a "Sock Puppet") and return to the forums to post with it before your suspension is up you WILL get more time added to your original suspension and lose your Socks. This behavior may result a permanent ban, since it shows you have zero respect for the few rules we have and the moderating team that is tasked with supporting them. Check the Terms of Service you agreed to; they apply to the individual agreeing, not the account you created, so don't try to Sea Lawyer us if you get caught. Just don't do it. Those are the three that will almost certainly get you into some trouble. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE DO ONE OF THESE THINGS, please do the following: Refrain from quoting the offending text, it makes the thread cleanup a pain in the rear Press the Report button; it is by far the best way to notify Admins as we will get e-mails. Calling out for Admins in the middle of threads, sending us PM's, etc. - there is no guarantee we will get those in a timely fashion. There are multiple Moderators in multiple time zones around the world, and anyone one of us can handle the Report and all of us will be notified about it. But if you PM one Mod directly and he's off line, the problem will get dealt with much more slowly. Other behaviors that you might want to think twice before doing include: Intentionally disrupting threads and discussions repeatedly. Off topic/content free trolling in threads to disrupt dialog Stalking users around the forums with the intent to disrupt content and discussion Repeated posting of overly graphic or scatological porn content. There are plenty web sites for you to get your freak on, don't do it here. And a brief note to Newbies... No, we will not ban people or censor them for dropping F-bombs on you, using foul language, etc. so please don't report it when one of our members gives you a greeting you may find shocking. We do our best not to censor content here and playing swearword police is not in our job descriptions. Sailing Anarchy is more like a bar than a classroom, so handle it like you would meeting someone a little coarse - don't look for the teacher. Thanks.

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Micke

America's Cup Final: Race 13 & 14

984 posts in this topic

Cheers and is there any chance of this one getting weathered off?

 

 

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Cheers and is there any chance of this one getting weathered off?

Most models show 10 - 14 kts. But..... yaknow.

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Thanks. These embedded yt videos on sailing anarchy have the only way I've been able to watch. So cheers dude.

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

Care to explain more?

 

We have a 'Ebb' tide till Sunday (NZ Time) I believe..... switches to Flood then.

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

11:49 Sat Max Flood 3.5 kts

13:23 Sat High 6.1 ft

14:41 Sat Slack

17:48 Sat Max Ebb 2.3 kts

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

11:49 Sat Max Flood 3.5 kts

13:23 Sat High 6.1 ft

14:41 Sat Slack

17:48 Sat Max Ebb 2.3 kts

That is for Saturday. We're going to have Racing scheduled today if I remember correctly.

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Cheers and is there any chance of this one getting weathered off?

Most models show 10 - 14 kts. But..... yaknow.

Agree that the models show moderate winds, but SailFlows wind buoys in SF bay already show 7-10 knots averages with 14 kts gusts. If the wind builds as it usually does this could indicate winds in the upper range once again. But at least there isn't a strong ebb reducing the limit.

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

 

11:49 Sat Max Flood 3.5 kts

13:23 Sat High 6.1 ft

14:41 Sat Slack

17:48 Sat Max Ebb 2.3 kts

That is for Saturday. We're going to have Racing scheduled today if I remember correctly.

Oops, my bad. Here's today's:

11:08 Fri Max Flood 3.8 kts

12:49 Fri High. 6.1 ft

14:03 Fri Slack

17:08 Fri Max Ebb 2.4 kts

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

11:49 Sat Max Flood 3.5 kts

13:23 Sat High 6.1 ft

14:41 Sat Slack

17:48 Sat Max Ebb 2.3 kts

That is for Saturday. We're going to have Racing scheduled today if I remember correctly.

Oops, my bad. Here's today's:

11:08 Fri Max Flood 3.8 kts

12:49 Fri High. 6.1 ft

14:03 Fri Slack

17:08 Fri Max Ebb 2.4 kts

So, max Flood at 11.08 PST...bad for New Zealand cuz once it gets closer to Race Time the FLOOD disappears and it gets more even and (or) a slight EBB.

 

There have been 5 Races contested in an EBB Tide this Regatta. OTUSA 3 ETNZ 2.

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Love to see OTUSA win a couple more, but sure looks like the cup is going down under. Hopefully the Kiwis will pick a smaller, more affordable boat for the next cycle and we will see many more challengers.

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Love to see OTUSA win a couple more, but sure looks like the cup is going down under. Hopefully the Kiwis will pick a smaller, more affordable boat for the next cycle and we will see many more challengers.

Me too. Would love to see the Kiwis SWEAT a little :D They're not sweating right now. That will probably come should OTUSA get it to 8-5 or something like in that range.

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

11:49 Sat Max Flood 3.5 kts

13:23 Sat High 6.1 ft

14:41 Sat Slack

17:48 Sat Max Ebb 2.3 kts

That is for Saturday. We're going to have Racing scheduled today if I remember correctly.

Oops, my bad. Here's today's:

11:08 Fri Max Flood 3.8 kts

12:49 Fri High. 6.1 ft

14:03 Fri Slack

17:08 Fri Max Ebb 2.4 kts

So, max Flood at 11.08 PST...bad for New Zealand cuz once it gets closer to Race Time the FLOOD disappears and it gets more even and (or) a slight EBB.

 

There have been 5 Races contested in an EBB Tide this Regatta. OTUSA 3 ETNZ 2.

 

 

But its getting better everyday for NZL no?

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Can someone explain why tnz do not initiate a fybing duel when they find themselves behind on leg 2? Surely they could hope for a bad OR gybe or at least a split?

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dragon

 

these are the best of the best

 

i don't think your plea to internet nobodies means zac shyte

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Can someone explain why tnz do not initiate a fybing duel when they find themselves behind on leg 2? Surely they could hope for a bad OR gybe or at least a split?

 

 

I was also suprised that they didn't split more when they were behind yesterday??

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Can someone explain why tnz do not initiate a fybing duel when they find themselves behind on leg 2? Surely they could hope for a bad OR gybe or at least a split?

The boat ahead is in control in these races because the wind is always forward and the boat behind has no shadow.

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Posted on another thread, but probably better here:

 

Doing some analysis using Cupinfo statistics: http://www.cupinfo.com/cupstats/

For Race 12

-- Ground wind averaged about 16 kts ... don't remember exactly what the current correction was, but I think it was about 2 kts so that means 18 knots corrected true wind speed....fairly high, but not quite right at the wind limit.

-- Oracle sailed generally upwind between 50 and 55 TWA (http://www.cupinfo.c...nd-angle-01.php) which according to their polar for the day (http://www.cupinfo.c...ar-plots-02.php) would mean speeds of about 27 kts average for a VMG of 16.2 kts. TNZ sailed upwind mostly at about 45 deg at 25 kts for a VMG of 17.6. Yes at times Oracle was sailing upwind at 30+, but based on the cupinfo data, they had to head off to about 75 degrees to do so and their VMG went to shit....also, according to the TWA frequency data, they didn't actually do this all that often.

-- Cupinfo has not updated tacking speeds for races 11 or 12 yet....bottom speed is not the critical number, though it is indicative to some degree. Obviously the best measure would be VMG loss through a tack vs. straight line, but no-one seems to be crunching those numbers and I don't have time to go through the raw data. Oracle have certainly improved and certainly have a higher bottom speed through the tack, but it looks to me like they do this partially by sailing lower into and out of the tack which would hurt your VMG a bit.

-- NZL gained 2 seconds upwind while largely being controlled by Oracle. I didn't see many cases where Oracle couldn't sail where they wanted to in that race. I think NZL did a good job tactically considering they were under Oracle's thumb, but they did have to make 2 more tacks then they would have if Oracle wasn't there, and at the top of the course had to sail over to the unfavored side. Overall I think NZL had a slight upwind speed advantage in these conditions, but nowhere near what they had 5 races ago.

--NZL sailed a lot of extra distance on the 4th leg due to the wind shift when they were on the left side of the course (forced that way by Oracle). This is where the lead went from 10ish seconds to 30ish.

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Posted on another thread, but probably better here:

 

Doing some analysis using Cupinfo statistics: http://www.cupinfo.com/cupstats/

For Race 12

-- Ground wind averaged about 16 kts ... don't remember exactly what the current correction was, but I think it was about 2 kts so that means 18 knots corrected true wind speed....fairly high, but not quite right at the wind limit.

-- Oracle sailed generally upwind between 50 and 55 TWA (http://www.cupinfo.c...nd-angle-01.php) which according to their polar for the day (http://www.cupinfo.c...ar-plots-02.php) would mean speeds of about 27 kts average for a VMG of 16.2 kts. TNZ sailed upwind mostly at about 45 deg at 25 kts for a VMG of 17.6. Yes at times Oracle was sailing upwind at 30+, but based on the cupinfo data, they had to head off to about 75 degrees to do so and their VMG went to shit....also, according to the TWA frequency data, they didn't actually do this all that often.

-- Cupinfo has not updated tacking speeds for races 11 or 12 yet....bottom speed is not the critical number, though it is indicative to some degree. Obviously the best measure would be VMG loss through a tack vs. straight line, but no-one seems to be crunching those numbers and I don't have time to go through the raw data. Oracle have certainly improved and certainly have a higher bottom speed through the tack, but it looks to me like they do this partially by sailing lower into and out of the tack which would hurt your VMG a bit.

-- NZL gained 2 seconds upwind while largely being controlled by Oracle. I didn't see many cases where Oracle couldn't sail where they wanted to in that race. I think NZL did a good job tactically considering they were under Oracle's thumb, but they did have to make 2 more tacks then they would have if Oracle wasn't there, and at the top of the course had to sail over to the unfavored side. Overall I think NZL had a slight upwind speed advantage in these conditions, but nowhere near what they had 5 races ago.

--NZL sailed a lot of extra distance on the 4th leg due to the wind shift when they were on the left side of the course (forced that way by Oracle). This is where the lead went from 10ish seconds to 30ish.

 

 

Good analysis there.

 

Downwind slight edge to OR

 

Upwind, even at this point.

 

With all that being said, bad start or tactics rules the roost.

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Posted on another thread, but probably better here:

 

Doing some analysis using Cupinfo statistics: http://www.cupinfo.com/cupstats/

For Race 12

-- Ground wind averaged about 16 kts ... don't remember exactly what the current correction was, but I think it was about 2 kts so that means 18 knots corrected true wind speed....fairly high, but not quite right at the wind limit.

-- Oracle sailed generally upwind between 50 and 55 TWA (http://www.cupinfo.c...nd-angle-01.php) which according to their polar for the day (http://www.cupinfo.c...ar-plots-02.php) would mean speeds of about 27 kts average for a VMG of 16.2 kts. TNZ sailed upwind mostly at about 45 deg at 25 kts for a VMG of 17.6. Yes at times Oracle was sailing upwind at 30+, but based on the cupinfo data, they had to head off to about 75 degrees to do so and their VMG went to shit....also, according to the TWA frequency data, they didn't actually do this all that often.

-- Cupinfo has not updated tacking speeds for races 11 or 12 yet....bottom speed is not the critical number, though it is indicative to some degree. Obviously the best measure would be VMG loss through a tack vs. straight line, but no-one seems to be crunching those numbers and I don't have time to go through the raw data. Oracle have certainly improved and certainly have a higher bottom speed through the tack, but it looks to me like they do this partially by sailing lower into and out of the tack which would hurt your VMG a bit.

-- NZL gained 2 seconds upwind while largely being controlled by Oracle. I didn't see many cases where Oracle couldn't sail where they wanted to in that race. I think NZL did a good job tactically considering they were under Oracle's thumb, but they did have to make 2 more tacks then they would have if Oracle wasn't there, and at the top of the course had to sail over to the unfavored side. Overall I think NZL had a slight upwind speed advantage in these conditions, but nowhere near what they had 5 races ago.

--NZL sailed a lot of extra distance on the 4th leg due to the wind shift when they were on the left side of the course (forced that way by Oracle). This is where the lead went from 10ish seconds to 30ish.

Could you please stop this insane spinning off Events.

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NZ out front the race will get called. This should already be over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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NZ out front the race will get called. This should already be over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, it should not cuz NZ were too dumb agreeing raising the Wind Limit.

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Lots more south in the wind today, it going to be really hard for the port entry boat to get down to lay-line and it going to favor the outside gates at the top mark big time.

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NZ out front the race will get called. This should already be over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, it should not cuz NZ were too dumb agreeing raising the Wind Limit.

 

 

if they thought it was to their advantage, surely they would have agreed. They obviously think more breeze gives TOUSA an edge.

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Posted on another thread, but probably better here:

 

Doing some analysis using Cupinfo statistics: http://www.cupinfo.com/cupstats/

For Race 12

-- Ground wind averaged about 16 kts ... don't remember exactly what the current correction was, but I think it was about 2 kts so that means 18 knots corrected true wind speed....fairly high, but not quite right at the wind limit.

-- Oracle sailed generally upwind between 50 and 55 TWA (http://www.cupinfo.c...nd-angle-01.php) which according to their polar for the day (http://www.cupinfo.c...ar-plots-02.php) would mean speeds of about 27 kts average for a VMG of 16.2 kts. TNZ sailed upwind mostly at about 45 deg at 25 kts for a VMG of 17.6. Yes at times Oracle was sailing upwind at 30+, but based on the cupinfo data, they had to head off to about 75 degrees to do so and their VMG went to shit....also, according to the TWA frequency data, they didn't actually do this all that often.

-- Cupinfo has not updated tacking speeds for races 11 or 12 yet....bottom speed is not the critical number, though it is indicative to some degree. Obviously the best measure would be VMG loss through a tack vs. straight line, but no-one seems to be crunching those numbers and I don't have time to go through the raw data. Oracle have certainly improved and certainly have a higher bottom speed through the tack, but it looks to me like they do this partially by sailing lower into and out of the tack which would hurt your VMG a bit.

-- NZL gained 2 seconds upwind while largely being controlled by Oracle. I didn't see many cases where Oracle couldn't sail where they wanted to in that race. I think NZL did a good job tactically considering they were under Oracle's thumb, but they did have to make 2 more tacks then they would have if Oracle wasn't there, and at the top of the course had to sail over to the unfavored side. Overall I think NZL had a slight upwind speed advantage in these conditions, but nowhere near what they had 5 races ago.

--NZL sailed a lot of extra distance on the 4th leg due to the wind shift when they were on the left side of the course (forced that way by Oracle). This is where the lead went from 10ish seconds to 30ish.

Could you please stop this insane spinning off Events.

Alinghi4ever: Then maybe you could enlighten us with your analysis of the performance during race 12?

 

To me the analysis seems to be a fair judgement, TWA of of 50 deg or more gives you a real beating VMG wise.

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NZ out front the race will get called. This should already be over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, it should not cuz NZ were too dumb agreeing raising the Wind Limit.

 

 

if they thought it was to their advantage, surely they would have agreed. They obviously think more breeze gives TOUSA an edge.

NO

 

They said they would have agreed without hesitation BEFORE the racing started. ETNZ even said they wanted 25, OR wanted 20 and the settled on 23 as a compromise. All ETNZ want to do is keep the rules the SAME for the entire event not make a change (that my or may not) help one of the teams.

 

It is a pretty simple concept. It would have been fine to do this before racing started, it would never make sense to do it in the middle of the game!

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NZ out front the race will get called. This should already be over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, it should not cuz NZ were too dumb agreeing raising the Wind Limit.

 

 

if they thought it was to their advantage, surely they would have agreed. They obviously think more breeze gives TOUSA an edge.

If that's the case then why do the Kiwi Trolls on this Board getting so offended a Race was called off 15 Secs before the Start. It was their own fault IMO.

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NZ out front the race will get called. This should already be over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, it should not cuz NZ were too dumb agreeing raising the Wind Limit.

 

 

if they thought it was to their advantage, surely they would have agreed. They obviously think more breeze gives TOUSA an edge.

They were pretty darn fast too when the wind was blowing only in medium conditions yesterday.

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^ regarding the analysis, I would add OR gave up seconds at the top end of the course as they tacked onto port on the lay line and hit a light wind area. coming out of the tack they sat both hulls down and this is where NZL gained time. I think until that last tack OR had extended a bit. Biased of course but that is how I saw it. :)

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Interesting forecast from WRAMS 1km. More South than we have seen, and going lighter over time. Doesn't seem right.

post-1017-0-46321000-1379688073_thumb.jpg

post-1017-0-17406500-1379688095_thumb.jpg

post-1017-0-46321000-1379688073_thumb.jpg

post-1017-0-17406500-1379688095_thumb.jpg

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NWS forecast this morning for the race area: West wind 11-16 knots, and up to 22 in the afternoon. Most wind east of the race course, Susun Bay and delta. The high pressure directly over the Bay with the thermal low inland. Tomorrow the influence of the trough will be felt, with a shift to the south and lighter winds.

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However you do the math- Who predicted OR fully foiling 'upwind' at 31 knots!... These boats are incredible....

 

OR will run out of races for sure, but a worthy fight back from getting totally hosed just a week ago....

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The thing in multi's is that the speed benefit of footing (upwind) and heating up (downwind) cannot be understood until you've tried it racing. I'm surprised we aren't seeing the boat behind heating up more on downwind legs. Seems like TNZ is more willing to sail extra distance for boat speed, which Oracle should think about today if they find themselves behind...

 

 

In the box, I'm wondering why the whole cat and dog thing we're seeing is happening. I know it's classic match racing, but these aren't classic boats. Multi's accelerate quickly, and can park all day long. Late entrant to the box should go to the favored end, and park there on starboard tack... Too much advantage for the first boat in.

 

Rant for the day.

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FFS Stop whinging about wind limits. OTUSA would be doing the same thing if the score was 8:1 in their favor make no mistake about it. ETNZ have much more experience sailing AC72s in higher winds than Oracle.

 

 

 

Jimmy can you whinge again about the wind limit?
\

press

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FFS Stop whinging about wind limits. OTUSA would be doing the same thing if the score was 8:1 in their favor make no mistake about it. ETNZ have much more experience sailing AC72s in higher winds than Oracle.

Really. If you were in charge of the team ahead, would any of you seriously consider ANY changes to the format? I sure as hell wouldn't. Your job is to win the cup, not to entertain a tv audience. Going from a "known" to an "unknown" when you're in the lead is just not something that any sane person would do.

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FFS Stop whinging about wind limits. OTUSA would be doing the same thing if the score was 8:1 in their favor make no mistake about it. ETNZ have much more experience sailing AC72s in higher winds than Oracle.

 

 

 

Jimmy can you whinge again about the wind limit?

\

That would be 8:2, not that it makes much difference.

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FFS Stop whinging about wind limits. OTUSA would be doing the same thing if the score was 8:1 in their favor make no mistake about it. ETNZ have much more experience sailing AC72s in higher winds than Oracle.

Really. If you were in charge of the team ahead, would any of you seriously consider ANY changes to the format? I sure as hell wouldn't. Your job is to win the cup, not to entertain a tv audience. Going from a "known" to an "unknown" when you're in the lead is just not something that any sane person would do.

+1 Kiwis, throughout history, have always been the best sailors in the heavy stuff, including this AC. OR was and will always be the weaker team (that is why they wanted 20Knot wind limit) and the only way for LE, RC and JS to justify their failure is to point fingers away from them.

 

JS's little boys rant is just another attempt to avoid to man up and take responsibility for not being ready, cheating and trying to get away for not delivering.

 

Long way coming for OR "team USA", LE, RC et al

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Anyone know if NBC (presumably NBC Sports Network) will be televising today's races in the US? I checked the AC website, NBC Sports' site, and my DVR's TV listings, and they all suggest no... But they've televised every other race so far, so I'm guessing they intend to and just haven't updated the listings yet?

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...In the box, I'm wondering why the whole cat and dog thing we're seeing is happening. I know it's classic match racing, but these aren't classic boats. Multi's accelerate quickly, and can park all day long. Late entrant to the box should go to the favored end, and park there on starboard tack... Too much advantage for the first boat in...

This can never work with boats this fast. When parked they are sitting duck. They can't possibly cover the whole line from a boat doing time on distance to the line with the gaps they get on entry.

 

Cheers,

Pete

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Anyone know if NBC (presumably NBC Sports Network) will be televising today's races in the US? I checked the AC website, NBC Sports' site, and my DVR's TV listings, and they all suggest no... But they've televised every other race so far, so I'm guessing they intend to and just haven't updated the listings yet?

 

Yes, yesterday it came on at 4 PM eastern time, even though the guide listed other programs listed for that time slot.

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UPDATE: 0925 hours


The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.


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FFS Stop whinging about wind limits. OTUSA would be doing the same thing if the score was 8:1 in their favor make no mistake about it. ETNZ have much more experience sailing AC72s in higher winds than Oracle.

Really. If you were in charge of the team ahead, would any of you seriously consider ANY changes to the format? I sure as hell wouldn't. Your job is to win the cup, not to entertain a tv audience. Going from a "known" to an "unknown" when you're in the lead is just not something that any sane person would do.
OR's best realistic hope at this point to win is a NZ breakdown that keeps them out of multiple races or even ends their cup. The chances of this happening increase with more wind. NZ would be foolish to agree to racing in more wind than what was originally agree to. reverse the scores and NZ would be talking about racing in higher winds and OR dragging their feet.

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

They never have won a Race with Grant Dalton off the Boat.

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Posted on another thread, but probably better here:

 

Doing some analysis using Cupinfo statistics: http://www.cupinfo.com/cupstats/

For Race 12

-- Ground wind averaged about 16 kts ... don't remember exactly what the current correction was, but I think it was about 2 kts so that means 18 knots corrected true wind speed....fairly high, but not quite right at the wind limit.

-- Oracle sailed generally upwind between 50 and 55 TWA (http://www.cupinfo.c...nd-angle-01.php) which according to their polar for the day (http://www.cupinfo.c...ar-plots-02.php) would mean speeds of about 27 kts average for a VMG of 16.2 kts. TNZ sailed upwind mostly at about 45 deg at 25 kts for a VMG of 17.6. Yes at times Oracle was sailing upwind at 30+, but based on the cupinfo data, they had to head off to about 75 degrees to do so and their VMG went to shit....also, according to the TWA frequency data, they didn't actually do this all that often.

-- Cupinfo has not updated tacking speeds for races 11 or 12 yet....bottom speed is not the critical number, though it is indicative to some degree. Obviously the best measure would be VMG loss through a tack vs. straight line, but no-one seems to be crunching those numbers and I don't have time to go through the raw data. Oracle have certainly improved and certainly have a higher bottom speed through the tack, but it looks to me like they do this partially by sailing lower into and out of the tack which would hurt your VMG a bit.

-- NZL gained 2 seconds upwind while largely being controlled by Oracle. I didn't see many cases where Oracle couldn't sail where they wanted to in that race. I think NZL did a good job tactically considering they were under Oracle's thumb, but they did have to make 2 more tacks then they would have if Oracle wasn't there, and at the top of the course had to sail over to the unfavored side. Overall I think NZL had a slight upwind speed advantage in these conditions, but nowhere near what they had 5 races ago.

--NZL sailed a lot of extra distance on the 4th leg due to the wind shift when they were on the left side of the course (forced that way by Oracle). This is where the lead went from 10ish seconds to 30ish.

Could you please stop this insane spinning off Events.

Not spinning at all. I took the time to analyse the data posted on cupinfo and thought I would share my thoughts and interpretation. Generally I prefer to look at real data combined with watching the racing to try to make educated judgements. It is a real bonus to get more than just one boats set of data. Watching the race live I thought Oracle was WAY faster upwind and TNZ only gained on wind shifts. Watching 2nd time with Fiance after she got home I thought VMG was pretty similar with both boats gaining big time on the left. Looking at the cupinfo data I realized Oracle didn't sail as much time as I thought in that low mode, but did generally sail lower that NZL, could also see that that 30+ low mode was quite low and VMG suffered, but it gave them tactical options.

 

^ regarding the analysis, I would add OR gave up seconds at the top end of the course as they tacked onto port on the lay line and hit a light wind area. coming out of the tack they sat both hulls down and this is where NZL gained time. I think until that last tack OR had extended a bit. Biased of course but that is how I saw it. :)

Thank you. Imagine you may be right, but don't forget NZL did two extra tacks right at the mark, so even though the wind was lighter, it was still probably the better option compared to an extra tack.

 

I thought Oracle's tactics were quite good other than the initial mistake of picking the wrong gate.

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

They never have won a Race with Grant Dalton off the Boat.

 

And they hadn't lost a race with him on board until ... they lost a race with him on board. The lucky charm nonsense should have stopped on that day.

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

They never have won a Race with Grant Dalton off the Boat.

 

And they hadn't lost a race with him on board until ... they lost a race with him on board. The lucky charm nonsense should have stopped on that day.

 

The won the LV Final with Grant off the boat........

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^^^ Ibsailn, Thank you for your analysis, much more informative than 99 % of the posts here on SA (including my own of course :) ).

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

They never have won a Race with Grant Dalton off the Boat.

 

And they hadn't lost a race with him on board until ... they lost a race with him on board. The lucky charm nonsense should have stopped on that day.

 

Agreed. It's one thing if he could exert leadership and, e.g., calm the boys down. But grinders don't have microphones.

 

Some sailors, e.g., Jobba, might be superstitious, but even GD isn't superstitious about grinding. On these boats, the ability to keep the hydros topped up is life or death racing-wise (want two quick tacks or gybes in succession? ... better have your hydraulic pressure topped up!) and the stronger the grinding crew is, the more quickly you can replenish pressure. I respect GD for getting the hell off there and allowing a stronger fellow to hop on.

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

 

I imagine that Dalts won't be on the boat for any more of the races because he'll want to be on the RNZYS barge for the signing of the challenge with the next COR, right?

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

I imagine that Dalts won't be on the boat for any more of the races because he'll want to be on the RNZYS barge for the signing of the challenge with the next COR, right?

Would likely be RNZYC Commodore or other officer of the club doing the signing. Maybe GD likes to watch?

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Bad News:

 

UPDATE: 1130 hours

Races 13 and 14 are on the slate today, scheduled to start at 1315 and 1415 respectively. With a cold front approaching the Northern California region today’s weather is a bit unstable. The front was forecast to increase winds tonight, but that build has started earlier than expected.

The original forecast called for winds of 10 to 15 knots with clouds increasing throughout the afternoon. But Regatta Director Iain Murray says the wind is already building.

“It’s getting windier than that on racecourse. Already it’s blowing 15-18 knots at Anita Rock, in the sheltered part of San Francisco Bay, and more than that on Treasure Island,” said Murray.

High tide in San Francisco is scheduled for 1249, which means there’ll be a slight increase in the base 23-knot wind limit for Race 13 (23.3 knots) and then a decrease for Race 14 (21.3 knots).

“Were expecting the breeze to build all day and be very windy tonight,” Murray said. “We were confident of getting some races in on the earlier forecast, but the reality of what we see out there on the racecourse, it is windier – and this is pre-frontal as front comes through – we’ll have to play it by ear.”

 

Just wonder if we get any Race in today.

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I would imagine Dalton wants to get the monkey off the teams back, re: his presence. Would be much healthier, going forward for ETNZ to know they can win one without 'the gdipper'.

 

As an aside, I cannot figure out why JS has been forced into the dual role of helmsman/spokesman for OTUSA. Doesn't anyone else want to stand up for, and be identified with the team?

 

Talk about a vacuum!

 

I know, if they win some more races it will speak volumes, but JS's antics over the wind limits are juvenile, and give the team another hurdle, p.r. wise. "We even wrote a letter..." blah, blah.

My grand daughter is taking her first spelling test today, and I am incredibly proud, but OTUSA writing one letter? Not so much...

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iwindsurf's 11:30 update

 

the video they refer to is the latest post in their san francisco/west coast weather blog located at

http://blog.weatherflow.com/category/san-francisco/

it's pretty interesting, and you don't have to be logged in to read it.

 

 

Meteorologist Forecast

San Francisco forecast valid for Fri, Sep 20 2013

Issued Fri, Sep 20 11:30:00 by meteorologist Mike Godsey - Next scheduled update: 11:30 AM
Special updates issued as needed.

Sherman PM sees powerful GUSTY winds. Gusty upper teens+ Crissy outside, TI, PI, Stick, Berkeley.

Video: Upper trough and rainy cold front moves towards the North Bay.

Now at 11:30 AM we are feeling the impact of the upper trough seen in the video above now has SW winds just aloft in the low 20's to upper 4o's on the hilltops. In response strong Sherman Island winds are ramping up ever earlier than I forecast. There is going to be a lot of SW so Marker 14 will be great. Overhead you can see the mid level clouds from the approaching showery cold front that will arrive. A broken marine layer will persist this afternoon with broken mid level clouds aloft. Expect GUSTY SHIFTY winds today.

Previous forecast from 7AM. The view from space shows a massive wet cold front west of Cape Mendocino that will graze the North Bay Saturday. Zoomed, the satellite imagery shows a deepening marine layer as SW onshore flow ramps up on the hilltops in advance of the storm. The North Pacific High is scurrying to the SW abandoning the west coast in the face of the huge wintry storm targeting the Pacific Northwest. It looks like the marine layer clouds will actually THICKEN during the day as the storm approaches and as the coast cools down the pressure gradient from SFO to Sacramento, Redding & Bakersfield all go up LATE in the afternoon as does the SW flow aloft. Later this afternoon expect strong wind in the mid to upper 20's at Sherman Island with gusts STRONGER. GUSTY upper teens to OUTSIDE Crissy and Ti as will as Berkeley, Pt. Isabel.

NOTE: watch out for powerful GUSTS, LULLS and SHIFTS.

Sherman Island: Dawn mid teens. Morning mid to faint upper teens. Mid day low 20's. Afternoon winds ramp to GUSTY mid to upper 20's with GUSTS stronger.

Coast: Waddell LATE weak low teens. Bodega low teens.

Peninsula: LATE AND OUTSIDE Coyote and 3rd Ave have SW flow at shore at times then upper teens in the channel. Candlestick upper teens and Palo Alto mid teens.

Central Bay: Crissy weak inside then reaching upper teens to near 20 towards the north tower. Treasure Island OUTSIDE upper teens to faint low 20's.

East and North Bay: Berkeley upper teens OUTSIDE. Pt. Isabel upper teens. Alameda mid teens. Larkspur mid teens.

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Could you please stop this insane spinning off Events.

Alinghi4ever: Then maybe you could enlighten us with your analysis of the performance during race 12?

 

To me the analysis seems to be a fair judgement, TWA of of 50 deg or more gives you a real beating VMG wise.

I am waiting for Aling14evers alternative view of what that data means, should I hold my breath or not?

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My memory is they have to declare their measurement condition at 8pm the night before....might that explain the sprit as last night they were expecting light air today?

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My memory is they have to declare their measurement condition at 8pm the night before....might that explain the sprit as last night they were expecting light air today?

Here is your answer:

 

As for the teams, ORACLE TEAM USA was issued another certificate again this morning, its 13th in 13 races. A new certificate has to be issued for the slightest of changes, such as moving the rudderhead 10 millimeters, so it’s not surprising that the defender has constantly changed its boat in the search for the perfect setup. Today, the most notable change was the addition of the bowsprit, perhaps due to the original light-wind forecast.

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My memory is they have to declare their measurement condition at 8pm the night before....might that explain the sprit as last night they were expecting light air today?

Yes, and I think, part of the reason that ETNZ have looked out of sorts yesterday, they planned on lighter winds, same thing might happen to day. I hope we get some racing in.

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

They never have won a Race with Grant Dalton off the Boat.

That´s how they are going for the final showtime on Saturday (loosing today) and by doing this, having more exposure for their sponsors...

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Ok so im all for safety, but its getting a little rediculous with all these postponements! And if we don't get a race today Its really going to ruin what was becoming a great regatta. This would have to be one of the highest rates of postponements we've seen. San Francisco was chosen because of its challenging conditions and now they can't sail unless its under 20 knots. San Francisco was the wrong place to stage this Cup.

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what wind speeds can they fly the code 0 in? I was wondering if it went light what oracle were going to do, obviously they have decided to glue it back on. Could we now see the boat looking a bit more nose down, due to the sprit etc. Or have they chucked some lead in the boot to keep the nose up?

 

Who measures the boat? it could take ages, or are we relying on honesty again to say only that's been changed, everything else is the same

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UPDATE: 0925 hours

The crew lists are out and if you’re like America’s Cup commentator Gary Jobson, who believes Grant Dalton is a lucky charm for Emirates Team New Zealand, you’ll be biting your nails. Dalton is replaced on Pedestal 3 by Winston MacFarlane.

They never have won a Race with Grant Dalton off the Boat.

That´s how they are going for the final showtime on Saturday (loosing today) and by doing this, having more exposure for their sponsors...

 

 

I Repeat: Grant wasn't on-board when ETNZ won the LV cup final.....

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Looking at the wind readings on Sailflow, the winds seem to (at least momentarily) be dropping, SF Brigde, Alcatraz and Aquatic Park all show average winds below 9 kts at the moment. But it looks quite puffy and shifty. Will be interesting racing today.

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what wind speeds can they fly the code 0 in? I was wondering if it went light what oracle were going to do, obviously they have decided to glue it back on. Could we now see the boat looking a bit more nose down, due to the sprit etc. Or have they chucked some lead in the boot to keep the nose up?

 

Who measures the boat? it could take ages, or are we relying on honesty again to say only that's been changed, everything else is the same

Wind appears to die down...

 

America's Cup Racing @americascupLIVE 5m

WND Wind 270 at 8.4 kts, 11.0 kts peak

Now, are OTUSA genius or fools. If it's increasing they're obviously fools with the longer bowsprit; If it stays as it is right now they're genius.

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What happens when the USCG permit expires on the 22nd and we dont have a winner yet?

 

 

Well the AC boats can just duck and weave through the StFYC Big Boat Series fleets. ;)

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Looking at the wind readings on Sailflow, the winds seem to (at least momentarily) be dropping, SF Brigde, Alcatraz and Aquatic Park all show average winds below 9 kts at the moment. But it looks quite puffy and shifty. Will be interesting racing today.

 

 

they mostly look pretty gusty compared with other days

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Looking at the wind readings on Sailflow, the winds seem to (at least momentarily) be dropping, SF Brigde, Alcatraz and Aquatic Park all show average winds below 9 kts at the moment. But it looks quite puffy and shifty. Will be interesting racing today.

 

they mostly look pretty gusty compared with other days

Official update says 8,5 kts average on the race course.

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Not only is most of the most of the OTUSA team from NZ but now they're taking over the Bill Rs too. Is there no end?

what wind speeds can they fly the code 0 in? I was wondering if it went light what oracle were going to do, obviously they have decided to glue it back on. Could we now see the boat looking a bit more nose down, due to the sprit etc. Or have they chucked some lead in the boot to keep the nose up?

 

Who measures the boat? it could take ages, or are we relying on honesty again to say only that's been changed, everything else is the same

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Winter cold fronts tend to bring gusty southerly winds along the leading edge in SF bay. Summer cold fronts (particularly if they generate light rain) can knock the breeze to under 10 knots. Time will tell how this front plays out today and maybe over the weekend. OR had to put the longer sprit on just in case.

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lol... I just plugged into NBC sports extra...and it says " Coverage has concluded for the day" :)

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Looking at the wind readings on Sailflow, the winds seem to (at least momentarily) be dropping, SF Brigde, Alcatraz and Aquatic Park all show average winds below 9 kts at the moment. But it looks quite puffy and shifty. Will be interesting racing today.

 

they mostly look pretty gusty compared with other days

Yeah, big swings in velocity. Could be quite tricky out there.

Premium on covering I would think.

post-1017-0-13664300-1379706038_thumb.jpg

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Shifty winds and code 0, could add a whole new dimension to the racing, I might need to add some "special" to my morning coffee

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I don't think we've seen OR using a code 0 during a race yet. Crew work differences could be dramatic.

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Shifty winds and code 0, could add a whole new dimension to the racing, I might need to add some "special" to my morning coffee

You'll need some valium...LOL

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At this Point the Wind Speed isn't all that important. It's the TIDE. Anyone knows if we have a EBB or FLOOD Tide today?.

11:49 Sat Max Flood 3.5 kts

13:23 Sat High 6.1 ft

14:41 Sat Slack

17:48 Sat Max Ebb 2.3 kts

That is for Saturday. We're going to have Racing scheduled today if I remember correctly.

Oops, my bad. Here's today's:

11:08 Fri Max Flood 3.8 kts

12:49 Fri High. 6.1 ft

14:03 Fri Slack

17:08 Fri Max Ebb 2.4 kts

So, max Flood at 11.08 PST...bad for New Zealand cuz once it gets closer to Race Time the FLOOD disappears and it gets more even and (or) a slight EBB.

 

There have been 5 Races contested in an EBB Tide this Regatta. OTUSA 3 ETNZ 2.

But races are being run on PDT not PST

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Shifty winds and code 0, could add a whole new dimension to the racing, I might need to add some "special" to my morning coffee

You'll need some valium...LOL

Dont want the valium to mess with the champagne following the win :D

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Code 0 is flying.

Yup - OR not going all that fast with it. Seems very light out there, not foiling downwind during gybes, perhaps not even downwind overall (too far for me to tell)... Going to be an interesting day.

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I might need to add some "special" to my morning coffee

 

heh, quote of the day for me... (so far).... :-)

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Could you please stop this insane spinning off Events.

Alinghi4ever: Then maybe you could enlighten us with your analysis of the performance during race 12?

 

To me the analysis seems to be a fair judgement, TWA of of 50 deg or more gives you a real beating VMG wise.

I am waiting for Aling14evers alternative view of what that data means, should I hold my breath or not?

Remember that the trolls can't stand daylight so it might take some time :-)

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I 'm stuck in NZ, I wasn't asked to get the 5 minute epoxy out.

seriously though they get the boat remeasured, the measurer couldn't possibly look at everything on the boat and remeasure it. He would have to go on what the team says has been changed and what he can see,

 

as for the lead stuff I'm taking the piss, but I assume the sprit is going to add weight to the front and make it more nose down. I know it won't weigh much but its a long way forward of the balance point, namely the dagger boards. so do you try and move some stuff aft to compensate?

 

Not only is most of the most of the OTUSA team from NZ but now they're taking over the Bill Rs too. Is there no end?

what wind speeds can they fly the code 0 in? I was wondering if it went light what oracle were going to do, obviously they have decided to glue it back on. Could we now see the boat looking a bit more nose down, due to the sprit etc. Or have they chucked some lead in the boot to keep the nose up?

 

Who measures the boat? it could take ages, or are we relying on honesty again to say only that's been changed, everything else is the same

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Bad News:

 

UPDATE: 1130 hours

Races 13 and 14 are on the slate today, scheduled to start at 1315 and 1415 respectively. With a cold front approaching the Northern California region today’s weather is a bit unstable. The front was forecast to increase winds tonight, but that build has started earlier than expected.

The original forecast called for winds of 10 to 15 knots with clouds increasing throughout the afternoon. But Regatta Director Iain Murray says the wind is already building.

“It’s getting windier than that on racecourse. Already it’s blowing 15-18 knots at Anita Rock, in the sheltered part of San Francisco Bay, and more than that on Treasure Island,” said Murray.

High tide in San Francisco is scheduled for 1249, which means there’ll be a slight increase in the base 23-knot wind limit for Race 13 (23.3 knots) and then a decrease for Race 14 (21.3 knots).

“Were expecting the breeze to build all day and be very windy tonight,” Murray said. “We were confident of getting some races in on the earlier forecast, but the reality of what we see out there on the racecourse, it is windier – and this is pre-frontal as front comes through – we’ll have to play it by ear.”

 

Just wonder if we get any Race in today.

 

Up until now, they've been experiencing that rare and brief phenomenon which is "Summer" in SF.

 

Now we are starting to get into more typical SF weather.

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Shifty winds and code 0, could add a whole new dimension to the racing, I might need to add some "special" to my morning coffee

You'll need some valium...LOL

Dont want the valium to mess with the champagne following the win :D

Yeah, don't mix your grooves, man.

 

Carn the Realm of New Zealand!

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