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DryArmour

Pacific Tropical Cyclones - Could this be the year?

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The coastal waters here in Southern California have very cold here for the last three years. So cold most of the local fisherman have lost interest as migratory paths have followed the warmer water. When I lived back East I had a poster on my wall as a kid with three surfers on long boards with the phrase "It's warmer in California". I always wanted to share in that California lifestyle. I moved my sophomore year of High School to Hawaii (Dad got a new job). We had been there before so I knew the water was a balmy 80'F most of the year.

 

I moved to California in 1984 during the summer. My GF at the time took me to Manhattan Beach and I ran down the beach and dove head first into the water.... HOLY$HIT*** was it COLD***. (65'F)

 

I have watched the trends in coastal water temps for the last thirty years and this is about as warm a start to Summer Coastal Waters as I can remember. Cold water is one of the main factors in keeping SOCAL off the Eastern Pacific Hurricane path since 1939. I checked up and down the coast about an hour ago and San Diego was checking in with 74'F water. 73 in Huntington Beach. Santa Monica Bay was 71'F. This is a dramatic departure from the norm which is 3-5 degrees cooler on average from what we are seeing right now. Warmer waters also mean less of a temperature differential between the coastal areas and the low deserts which is what drives the daily sea breeze. Less sea breeze less upwelling. Less upwelling means warmer and warmer waters. Could this be the year we actually get some tropical system(s) in So Cal? No one can predict that for sure but when I walked out of the grocery store last night it felt a lot more like Miami or Honolulu than it did like the normally dry and warm or cool and damp southern California evening air mass. Something is changing. I like it.

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El nino condition? - does that mean less westerly sea breeze this year and more southerlies like we've been having lately?

 

1995/6/7? or so was the last time I remember the water being this warm. Its all a little blurry.

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Some of the weather types up in norcal are starting to think we need to test our water wings for next winter up this way. 1997 was a wicked wet year. Trying to get some new drains put in to keep the water funnel from the neighbors turning into a river right into my swimming pool. Socal vs tropical storms would be a pretty wild concept.

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Some of the weather types up in norcal are starting to think we need to test our water wings for next winter up this way. 1997 was a wicked wet year. Trying to get some new drains put in to keep the water funnel from the neighbors turning into a river right into my swimming pool. Socal vs tropical storms would be a pretty wild concept.

 

The long view is that there will be a reestablishment of the pineapple connection so, yes, pretty wet.

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Two TDs-Hurricanes in the forecast for next week? Southern swells for Pac Cup?

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Two TDs-Hurricanes in the forecast for next week? Southern swells for Pac Cup?

 

Yes...I do see southern swells for Pac Cup but more from a super long fetch double low pressure system coming off of New Zealand. We'll have to see what the Tropical Weather Gods have in store for the Eastern and Central Pacific.

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When Amanda formed in late May, I thought it bode well for an El Nino year. IIRC 1983 was an El Nino year and Adolph nailed Manzanillo on May 27. I haven't been following closely lately b/c I couldn't surf anyway (due to knee surgery), but, didn't we just go through June w/o anymore hurricanes? Thus my hopes for El Nino have waned.

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allright - what is it. El Nino or no?

Should I buy season passes for Kirkwood/heavenly/northstar, or not?

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It's been a great year (relative) for open water swimming. Whereas it's usually around 53 - 55 degrees in the water on an early winter morning, it hovered around 57-58. This time of year it's usually in the mid to low 60's. But this morning it was 72! Bath water. In the past 7 years it hasn't gotten up to 72 until August. Also, it hasn't rained very much and few winter storms which has meant cleaner water and less sediment. I can actually see the bottom and if anything it about to eat me. It was nice while it lasted.

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It's been a great year (relative) for open water swimming. Whereas it's usually around 53 - 55 degrees in the water on an early winter morning, it hovered around 57-58. This time of year it's usually in the mid to low 60's. But this morning it was 72! Bath water. In the past 7 years it hasn't gotten up to 72 until August. Also, it hasn't rained very much and few winter storms which has meant cleaner water and less sediment. I can actually see the bottom and if anything it about to eat me. It was nice while it lasted.

Latty / Longv ???

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It's been a great year (relative) for open water swimming. Whereas it's usually around 53 - 55 degrees in the water on an early winter morning, it hovered around 57-58. This time of year it's usually in the mid to low 60's. But this morning it was 72! Bath water. In the past 7 years it hasn't gotten up to 72 until August. Also, it hasn't rained very much and few winter storms which has meant cleaner water and less sediment. I can actually see the bottom and if anything it about to eat me. It was nice while it lasted.

Latty / Longv ???

Around Gladstones and south to Baywatch or to the Santa Monica Pier.

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allright - what is it. El Nino or no?

 

Should I buy season passes for Kirkwood/heavenly/northstar, or not?

Buy passes for peaks above 10,500 feet elevation would be my suggestion.

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One correction: sea breezes don't drive upwelling - wrong direction for offshore Ekman transport - and chicken-egg problem (upwelling from NW winds induces lower sea surface temperature, which then drives daytime seabreeze, not the reverse). Still, you are correct that lots of climate reorganization going on, so keep up the discussions, oceanographers love to see people discussing these things!

Cheers, Greg

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Hey Mark going to Cabo on the 13th for vacation. Do you see anything that week that I should be concerned about? Thanks.

 

Yuck- Too early to tell. Let me run the models real quick and see if it looks like anything is brewing. BRB

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One correction: sea breezes don't drive upwelling - wrong direction for offshore Ekman transport - and chicken-egg problem (upwelling from NW winds induces lower sea surface temperature, which then drives daytime seabreeze, not the reverse). Still, you are correct that lots of climate reorganization going on, so keep up the discussions, oceanographers love to see people discussing these things!

Cheers, Greg

 

Greg- That is actually what I though I said. The Eckman spiral is driven by onshore or down coast wind patterns bringing deep arctic water to the surface lower the salinity, increasing nutrients and creating a greater temperature (pressure) gradient. When the water/air temp differential is less between coastal California and the low desert, the onshore flow is less and thereby reducing the upwelling. This allows the surface ocean temps to further increase thus reducing the temperature gradient. Sound right?

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Hey Mark going to Cabo on the 13th for vacation. Do you see anything that week that I should be concerned about? Thanks.

 

Yuck- Too early to tell. Let me run the models real quick and see if it looks like anything is brewing. BRB

 

Yuck- For now nothing is showing up on the models. Check back in a week though and remind me.

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Great...Thanks Mark. Will check back in later next week. Either way probably too late to cancel on hotel so we will ride it out no matter what. Thanks again!

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San Diego Bay now reporting 75.6'F. That is off the chart warm for here. Santa Monica Basin is warm as is Huntington Beach. Thunderstorms popped up in the desert today right on cue (Usually the first show up between the 3rd and the 7th of July). The air at night has been warmer and markedly humid here in the DESERT SOUTHWEST. A large 20-23 second swell will arrive next week as a follow up to this week's 3-5' Southern Hemisphere swell.

 

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE.

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The wind has to be parallel to the coast since net transport is 90 deg to the right (in N. Hemi) and hence why I said that seabreeze doesn't induce upwelling as it's perpendicular to the coast. Upwelled water is from upper thermocline, 200-300m, so colder, but not "arctic".

Cheers, Greg

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The wind has to be parallel to the coast since net transport is 90 deg to the right (in N. Hemi) and hence why I said that seabreeze doesn't induce upwelling as it's perpendicular to the coast. Upwelled water is from upper thermocline, 200-300m, so colder, but not "arctic".

Cheers, Greg

 

Greg- The dominant winds on the California Coast are from 310-320. The thermal wind gradient here in far Southern California is generally from 270 so the upwelling isn't localized but the really cold water makes its way into our local waters when transported down the coast by the current. The last four years the "warm" days have found ocean temps around 63'F often dipping to 60'F even at the peak of Summer in August.It is really nice to have water temps in the low to mid 70s for a change. Have a great weekend.

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shoot. that's not very helpful <_<

 

Buy Mammoth, not Big Bear.

 

And sing along w Jimmy

 

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San Diego Bay now reporting 75.6'F. That is off the chart warm for here. Santa Monica Basin is warm as is Huntington Beach. Thunderstorms popped up in the desert today right on cue (Usually the first show up between the 3rd and the 7th of July). The air at night has been warmer and markedly humid here in the DESERT SOUTHWEST. A large 20-23 second swell will arrive next week as a follow up to this week's 3-5' Southern Hemisphere swell.

 

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE.

20-23 sec. Period? Really?

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San Diego Bay now reporting 75.6'F. That is off the chart warm for here. Santa Monica Basin is warm as is Huntington Beach. Thunderstorms popped up in the desert today right on cue (Usually the first show up between the 3rd and the 7th of July). The air at night has been warmer and markedly humid here in the DESERT SOUTHWEST. A large 20-23 second swell will arrive next week as a follow up to this week's 3-5' Southern Hemisphere swell.

 

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE.

20-23 sec. Period? Really?

 

Yup. Almost exactly the same as today's swell.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA138 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY....A 3 TO 4 FOOT SOUTH SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 20 TO 22 SECONDS WILLCONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONGORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.HIGHEST SURF AND STRONGEST RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ALONG SOUTHFACING BEACHES OF ORANGE COUNTY AND BEACHES OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGOCOUNTY. STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN SAN DIEGOCOUNTY. A SMALLER LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE THE RIPCURRENT THREAT THE MID-WEEK.

 

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shoot. that's not very helpful <_<

 

Buy Mammoth, not Big Bear.

Selling the family cabin on Eagle point at Big Bear soon if any of you Socal types are looking. No deals it will go for market value but great location on Eagle point, just totally rebuilt interior due to busted water pipes last winter.

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Mark any thoughts on Super-typhoon Neoguri? My daughter moved to Okinawa a week ago and called this morning indicating they were taking precautions for a serious battering.

 

bf4bcc17-7c60-461f-8bb4-03951fa564c5_980

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A Drop in water temp just outside San Diego Bay to 65 almost overnight ?????

 

Where did that come from & Why & Welcome B)

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Woody- When I checked the beach reports everyone in SO CAL was in the low 70s this morning except for LA harbor which sits at the top of a canyon and probably got some upwelling. The long range Wx forecasts spin up a good tropical cyclone a week from now down around Cabo. Hope it gets west enough to be in the swell window for us :-).

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A Drop in water temp just outside San Diego Bay to 65 almost overnight ?????

 

Where did that come from & Why & Welcome B)

It did take a dip on Saturday but it's back up. Yellow algae the past few weeks. No red tide though.

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was bleeping cold in Pacifica yesterday. Got home from taking the kids boogie boarding and bought 4/3 quit. never had one that heavy before. Is it getting colder, or am I just getting older (I know the answer...)

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The water up in Santa Monica Bay and LA Harbor did cool off a fair bit as the strong S-SSW swell abated and the normal short period down coast swell took back over. The south will produce again Thursday/ Friday 1-4 feet @ 17 seconds so nothing like last week but there are some good southern hemispheric storms are on the horizon.

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