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croman

Tropical Storm Arthur

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Any Predictions yet for us right coasters on the 4th??

 

Friday Morning NNE of Hatteras ejecting NE. Projected to be a hurricane. Take it seriously.

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Any Predictions yet for us right coasters on the 4th??

 

Friday Morning NNE of Hatteras ejecting NE. Projected to be a hurricane. Take it seriously.

What's your bet on the track along the Northeast coast? Right or left of the NHC forecast?

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Thanks Mark I'm getting a bit puckered!. The locals are showing it right offshore here Friday noon with 90 mph winds. Other models showing it going inland. Watching it closely!

 

Gene

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I have an easily trailerable boat in CT on long island sound....worth pulling out on thursday or even tomorrow? I guess the $64,000 question is if he decides to grace us with his presence, is he setting up for NE/E or SW winds?

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There/s almost a 50% chance that the storm will track along the coast and across cape cod. That would make for storm conditions in CT. IF she tracks a bit farther out, you get clearing skies.

 

Prudence.

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I have not had the chance to do the kind of homework on Arthur I normally do as a result of a massive workload at the moment at my "Other job" (Technical apparel).

 

I will try to have a serious look first thing in the morning and give you a better idea of where I think he is headed and how severe things may eventually get.

 

Sorry for the brevity. I started at 3AM this morning. Any information I would provide would be suspect at the moment due to exhaustion.

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One last note before I hit the sack. In the last two satellite frames and from the radar signature you can clearly see that Arthur has developed a fairly distinct eye to the north of the upper level circulation but that ay all becoming into alignment through tomorrow. Arthur has 29/30' F water available to him and that is in the form of the Gulf Stream to some degree so despite Arthur's anemic forward speed the storm will be fed constantly renewing warm to very warm water giving him plenty of energy to develop off. Sheer values are low trough 60 hours. What does this all mean? Potentially somewhat explosive intensity growth. For now, he is a very small storm...but Hatteras didn't get the nickname "Graveyard of the Atlantic" for nothing.

 

The guidance envelope is unusually tightly grouped so there is better than average confidence that he will go where he is told on his trip up the coast.

 

Stay tuned...

at201401_model.gif

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Any Predictions yet for us right coasters on the 4th??

 

Friday Morning NNE of Hatteras ejecting NE. Projected to be a hurricane. Take it seriously.

 

Can we "eject" him sooner/faster? :lol:

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Perfect. The red track goes right over us here in northern NS.

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20-25 for the last couple of nights here in Little Harbour, Berry Islands. Had one punchy band yesterday morning, of which I got some pics that I'll post when I get home.

 

This thing is sitting over some nice warm water. Be careful.

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You there now? We used to go to Great harbour Cay for lunch and swimming. If you swam to the next island south there were always big eagle rays in the channel between them.

 

20-25 for the last couple of nights here in Little Harbour, Berry Islands. Had one punchy band yesterday morning, of which I got some pics that I'll post when I get home.

This thing is sitting over some nice warm water. Be careful.

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I have an easily trailerable boat in CT on long island sound....worth pulling out on thursday or even tomorrow? I guess the $64,000 question is if he decides to grace us with his presence, is he setting up for NE/E or SW winds?

 

 

If you're trying to guess which side of you a hurricane will pass on, it's probably time to figure out your departure plan. If you like your boat, take it with you. If you don't, make sure it's insured.

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I have an easily trailerable boat in CT on long island sound....worth pulling out on thursday or even tomorrow? I guess the $64,000 question is if he decides to grace us with his presence, is he setting up for NE/E or SW winds?

 

If you're trying to guess which side of you a hurricane will pass on, it's probably time to figure out your departure plan. If you like your boat, take it with you. If you don't, make sure it's insured.

Insured, yup! I'm 2 minutes to the ramp so pulling won't be a problem if necessary. Will keep a sharp eye out...thanks for your analysis Mark - it's always spot on and quicker then the idiots on tv!

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Boats die ignominiously on LIS all year long even without big storms. All it takes is a sustained breeze and being moored on an exposed shoreline (common) and with the owner not there, on the rocks they go. See this every year in my town. Oh, and in the fall/winter the summer and/or weekend people's sunfish and lasers are swept out and then bashed into smithereens and we find our beach littered with their sad carcasses. They seem to have a hard time comprehending the height of the waves that are normal for fall and winter storms.

 

It even happens to people who know better. I rushed to the beach one morning as the wind developed and I had to slew my boat up onto the dunes and wait for what developed into a 40 knot blow to subside before lifting her back into the water.

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Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

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Be careful.

I have been caught out in a hurricane and it is amazing how fast your options narrow. At one point I sent a lookout to the bow and then had to send another person to go get the lookout back because you really couldn't see or hear as far the bow in the driving wind and rain :o

Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

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Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

I'm thinking this is one weekend to stay home. Because--- as you say "it's your call to make"!

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If you are cramming 8 people into a J-29 you might want to cancel anyway!

 

Hey we may not be able to stand up inside but I figured none of us will be able to stand anyway - if I know this group, I just hope they can find the marina before sunrise.

 

Yeah a little Champlin's reservation action before checking in with the Inns... oops. The two topside crewmembers were thinking they had the luxurious accommodations with their hammocks but I think the constant rain and Arthur are going to dampen their spirits a bit.

So far we're leaning toward going. Got a reefing main and a #3 - that's good for 85 kn right...? Need to train these guys one way or another. https://www.facebook.com/J29Stout

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I think unless you plan on travelling Friday night you should be in good shape. I'm planning on racing in LIS Friday and Saturday...currently looking like no wind for us Friday but I'm hoping for good breeze Saturday morning for some laser racing (we never get wind in the summer)

 

Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

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. The two topside crewmembers were thinking they had the luxurious accommodations

 

Putting 8 people into a J/29 gives fresh new meaning to the term "topside crewmembers." I suppose I'd rather be one of them, than one of the "bottomside crewmembers."

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. The two topside crewmembers were thinking they had the luxurious accommodations

 

Putting 8 people into a J/29 gives fresh new meaning to the term "topside crewmembers." I suppose I'd rather be one of them, than one of the "bottomside crewmembers."

 

Idk my V-berth is looking pretty spacious right about now... It's good to be the skipper sometimes. If the wind gets up, maybe not so much... will be coming home with sore biceps, that's for sure.

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Yup, rig down, strap boat to trailer and drink cocktails. Then race opb in the aftermath.

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Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

You should have headed to Block last week and you could have raced all week

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Wax up your sticks.

What does that mean? Mast tracks?

"Your stick" is a euphemism for "your surfboard"

Waxing your stick is applying applying wax to your board in preparation for a good swell.

 

You can always wax your mast too, although I'd use a different wax unless you plan a mast walk-

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Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

You should have headed to Block last week and you could have raced all week

 

I'm not racing you again until Fries helps me get my rigging straightened out. I'm running a J/24 backstay with like 4:1 purchase from ancient times, no twings, finally figured out what check stays are for, wire all over the place and a crew that thinks it's a good idea to sail back from BI in a hurricane. I do have some nice new black sails to use finally ;) I've got work to do Espo... you'll see us again though. Short shorts are still making their grand comeback.

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Scheduled to head to Block Island leaving Mystic, CT, tomorrow morning early and coming back Saturday or Sunday. Crew of 8 total, only 3 experienced. Going to be a little interesting - debating this now, for sure. It would suck to give this up and they want to go but it's my call to make. According to local weather I'm more worried about the weather tomorrow heading out than I am for Saturday. If he does head up here we'll just add another spring line and spend the night at BI - come back on Sunday under clear skies. Still praying for a turn east though...

 

-J/29

If you need some help let me know

You should have headed to Block last week and you could have raced all week

 

I'm not racing you again until Fries helps me get my rigging straightened out. I'm running a J/24 backstay with like 4:1 purchase from ancient times, no twings, finally figured out what check stays are for, wire all over the place and a crew that thinks it's a good idea to sail back from BI in a hurricane. I do have some nice new black sails to use finally ;) I've got work to do Espo... you'll see us again though. Short shorts are still making their grand comeback.

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Arthur is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane. As I initially suspected the guidance was too far to the right and new model runs have brought the path back to the left a bit. Portions of the coast of North Carolina are now under a hurricane warning. Arthur is no longer entraining dry air and the moderate convection is completely wrapped around the small eye feature. Arthur's strength should steadily increase over the next 30 hours or so until shear begins to increase again. Arthur's wind field has also increased in diameter. Stay tuned. First real spinner of the year is due in NC in the early morning hours of July 4th.

 

More later.

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PHRF cancelled last night at Duck Island, must have seen lightning or cells on the radar. We'll see about one design tonight, I reckon.....

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Doubled up all the lines, unbent the sails, dropped some big-ass fenders in, re-read the insurance policy, and bought a case of beer. Ready.

 

Doesn't look like winds will be too bad here in NPT, but never hurts to run a good drill for the one that comes right at us.

 

My slip-mate is out at BI right now...supposed to come back tomorrow. Kind of hope he decides to stay out there until it passes.

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Hurricane Arthur (Almost sounds Royal to me) continues to get better organized this morning. I like the guidance now in place and think it has adjusted for the recurve as the approaching front goes by pretty well. I would not however be surprised at a short term wobble to the left sometime today and to the left I mean more like due north for a short period and then back on the 010 heading. For those on the North Carolina Coast this wobble could mean a significant increase in winds to near hurricane strength and a tad more surge than is currently being forecast particularly in the capes including Hatteras and those south.

 

It is sunny and a beautiful day in Hatteras right now but that will look different by this time tomorrow if Arthur behaves and doesn't recurve early.

 

By Carolina standards, this one is mild (At least for now)...

 

If you enjoy these reports, please invest in some UPF 50+ tech shirts (Pro-Tech). They are 60% off right now and they include a left chest logo for under $20! We'll even build your art for FREE.

 

OUTER BANKS WEB CAMS

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Mark, thanks as always for your insight. not to be a pest but I was wondering if you have any detailed thoughts regarding Newport and Narragansett Bay area?

 

L

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Mark, thanks as always for your insight. not to be a pest but I was wondering if you have any detailed thoughts regarding Newport and Narragansett Bay area?

 

L

 

Lono:

 

My daughter is on the Cape (Cod) for the Summer so yes, I am keeping an especially close watch on that area. Hurricanes are a little bit like X-Wives...They are fairly predictable but every once in a while they do something you didn't expect and it usually isn't good. The guidance envelope is pretty tightly clustered even as it passes by your area. As I noted earlier, there may be a wobble to the left today and that could shift things slightly to the left looking down the road and that could make a difference in whether or not you see much impact beyond some moderate rain and wind. My gut says that the tracking generally looks good but as with any tropical system pay attention particularly over the next 24 hours to Arthur's track relative to the current forecast.

 

The only thing I could see causing more left gauge in his course would be if the front stalls out and that appears unlikely. Drop me a note with any other questions please.

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Thanks as always Mark. I always feel better when we get your input. We're all stripped and battened down for the storm now!

 

Bt the way, I gave the crew their shirts last night and they loved them!

 

 

 

10487401_10203877505885328_7365323304968

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Thanks as always Mark. I always feel better when we get your input. We're all stripped and battened down for the storm now!

 

Bt the way, I gave the crew their shirts last night and they loved them!

 

 

 

10487401_10203877505885328_7365323304968

 

Now that's what I am talking about Croman...showing the love. You were great to work with on your design. I loved the way they came out as well. Two of the guys in dye sublimation printed themselves a copy of their own they liked the design so much. Thank you for the order!

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The 11AM advisory is out from NHC. Arthur is now forecast to achieve Category 2 status as it passes over or just to the east of the OBX.

 

In looking at the latest loops I see three things of concern:

 

1) Shear won't pick up until at least this evening

2) Arthur is over a solid pool of 29/30 water (Lots of energy available)

3) The approaching front has saturated the previously relatively dry middle layer of the atmosphere that was incumbering Arthur from increasing his intensity.

 

If a clean eye wall develops and he stays just far enough offshore this could end up being a solid Category 2 storm with the posisbility of making a Cat 3 status briefly (But I would say those chances are very low).

 

If you live in the central Atlantic coast I would prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

 

Drop me a note with any questions.

 

 

Visible  satellite with SSTs 1415 UTC July 3-14.jpg

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Thanks as always Mark. I always feel better when we get your input. We're all stripped and battened down for the storm now!

 

Bt the way, I gave the crew their shirts last night and they loved them!

 

 

 

10487401_10203877505885328_7365323304968

got a closer shot of that shirt design?

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Thanks as always Mark. I always feel better when we get your input. We're all stripped and battened down for the storm now!

 

Bt the way, I gave the crew their shirts last night and they loved them!

 

 

 

10487401_10203877505885328_7365323304968

got a closer shot of that shirt design?

 

Here ya go. (Approved to post by Croman)

Genete Thayer Pterodactyl Mock V 1-3..jpg

Genete Thayer Pteradactyl.jpg

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The 11AM advisory is out from NHC. Arthur is now forecast to achieve Category 2 status as it passes over or just to the east of the OBX.

 

In looking at the latest loops I see three things of concern:

 

1) Shear won't pick up until at least this evening

2) Arthur is over a solid pool of 29/30 water (Lots of energy available)

3) The approaching front has saturated the previously relatively dry middle layer of the atmosphere that was incumbering Arthur from increasing his intensity.

 

If a clean eye wall develops and he stays just far enough offshore this could end up being a solid Category 2 storm with the posisbility of making a Cat 3 status briefly (But I would say those chances are very low).

 

If you live in the central Atlantic coast I would prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

 

Drop me a note with any questions.

 

That wobble to the left is happening NOW*.

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New track is to the west of the previous track and that means trouble for Eastern North Carolina, particularly the OBX. The eye wall has tightened up and he is just far enough offshore to increase in intensity prior to landfall tonight. Not saying that is guaranteed but the thickness in the clouds surrounding the eyewall has improved in the last few satellite frames. The front responsible for changing the direction to NE is now somewhat negatively tilted (Or less positively tilted) and that should maintain a NNE track through six hours. More until about 4:30PM when I have to leave for a family function. You can ALWAYS text me (562) 773-0552 and I will tell you what I can but my information will be very limited until 10:00PM Pacific time when I return.

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Latest from the Fleet Weather Center shows the same. Current track puts the storm center about 50 NM from me as it passes as a Cat II, still looks like we miss the hurricane force winds. Maybe. Spent the evening rigging the house, yard, and dock for heavy weather.

wtnt01.gif

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Im flying into Boston tomorrow at 1600. Great way to start our sailing season, living aboard. WEeeeee.... :D

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Arthur continues up the Pamlico Sound. Water will be stacking up at the north end of the sound overnight peaking around 3:30-4:00AM.

 

Arthur's is not doing what he is being told to do and is maintaining a course of 020-025. The right shift should be happening soon but not until the OX have been thoroughly raked over. This left shift also means that folks on Cape Cod, Newport, RI and places in between should carefully monitor whether Arthur starts abiding by the forecast or not. I am actually more concerned about Nova Scotia. The pressure drops and everyone on the southern end of the peninsula should pay close attention as this storm tracks toward them.

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Cloud tops have cooled in the last three satellite frames around the core. The eye wall appears to have completed a replacement cycle and the super warm water in Pamlico Sound is producing impressive intensification. The wind field remains small for now but those directly in the path of the eye, this could be a storm that produces some lasting memories (and likely not good ones) Fingers crossed for all of my friends on the Outer Banks. Morehead City took a direct hit. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the islands look once the dust (foam) settles.

 

My cell is always available to call if things are getting scary an you need eyes from outside an area where there may not be power or Internet. Write it down. 562-773-0552,

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$hit is getting real for the folks on the Eastern eye wall. This would include several long time posters to this board. Updates to them streaming directly by text from me to them. The next 120 minutes will be a rough ride for those in Manteo and Kill Devil Hills. Batten down and listen carefully for Tornado warnings.

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...2 AM POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND...

 

A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A

SUSTAINED WIND OF 70 MPH...113 KM/H

 

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Last update before I get some much needed rest. Arthur is rapidly exiting the Tarheel state at 23mph with an increase in forward speed expected. He is 25 miles east of Kill Devil Hills and now hauling the mail out to sea. Direction is between 35-40 degrees (NE). This takes him SE of New England if the course holds tomorrow night and then smacks into the south end of Nova Scotia. I personally don't like the deterioration in size/strength in the NHC model. My prediction is that the wind field increases and the pressure drops on final approach to NS. But hey...what do I know?

 

Have a safe and sane 4th of July. Thank you for all of the shirt orders and team gear questions today. If you like the weather updates and need some fantastic gear at an unbeatable deal...visit here. Niters people.

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Remember, sailors, the edge of a tropical system provides the only summer winds that are guaranteed to be thunderstorm-free. Arthur sucked up all the moisture and left behind a nice breeze. For some reason that I can't figure out, only two of us were out there to enjoy it. Here's a video taken by my friend. I'm still trying to get mine to upload.

 

He's right, my face did hurt from grinning. :D

 

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Wax up your sticks.

What does that mean? Mast tracks?

"Your stick" is a euphemism for "your surfboard"

Waxing your stick is applying applying wax to your board in preparation for a good swell.

 

You can always wax your mast too, although I'd use a different wax unless you plan a full brazilian!!

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Latest from the Fleet Weather Center shows the same. Current track puts the storm center about 50 NM from me as it passes as a Cat II, still looks like we miss the hurricane force winds. Maybe. Spent the evening rigging the house, yard, and dock for heavy weather.

wtnt01.gif

 

I like the way that map shows the quadrants; this morning is beautiful if still a bit breezy on the Neuse River

 

http://pages.suddenlink.net/neuseweather/

 

Supposedly gusts only into the hi 40s here but a bunch of people on cruising boats at sailing club & marina recorded ~60mph

Electricity is back on here, no damage to boats or property (other than our neighbor who hurt his back moving heavy stuff to prepare for hurricane). Some of the sailing club anchor-outs dragged but I don't have a full report yet.

 

DA thanks very much for your efforts to keep us informed!

 

FB- Doug

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Frying Pan Tower B&B, a former U.S. Coast Guard Light Station located 32 miles south of Bald Head, North Carolina.

 

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YES! Both my wife and kids (flying into Philly from Cali) and brother (into JFK from London) arrived ontime without delays. How weird is that? Watched the Philly fireworks from banks of the Schuylkill River across from 30th St Station & my bro arrived in time to enjoy the festivities. Everyone is now tucked into bed.

 

We've had some rock-em-sock-em bands of wind/rain, but very, very short lived. Intermittent power outages, but no more. We got lucky this time. Kinda wish I'd taken advantage of the winds to go sailing; maybe this weekend.

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Sitting in the Nantucket boat basin. B&G's pegged @ 60kts.

Swinging on a mooring. Spent night ashore. Went to dinner in full foul weather gear. Maitre d' admired our preparedness.

Oh well, ya takes what ya gets. Ride home tomorrow will be interesting, too.

Might stop by to say hello later. Did bump into your crew Thursday.

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TM, Looked pretty wild out in the Mooring field. Saw quit a few boats sitting on the beach that broke free.

The sail across the sound was a little bit of slog today but the ride up Buzzards bay was a blast at 10+. Saw the wind in the mid 20's

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Charlottetown Yacht Club on Prince Edward Island was hit pretty hard by Arthur. Unfortunately for them, winds were from the SW, the absolute worst case scenario.

One J30 was sunk and another lost her rig. Two powerboats were sunk as well.

I believe the dockage had been replaced in 2003 following Hurricane Juan.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/post-tropical-storm-arthur-sinks-boat-in-charlottetown-harbour-1.2697764

and

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/News/Local/2014-07-06/article-3789448/Extent-of-damage-at-yacht-club-still-unknown%2C-says-vice-commodore/1

 

Sad.

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TM, Looked pretty wild out in the Mooring field. Saw quit a few boats sitting on the beach that broke free.

The sail across the sound was a little bit of slog today but the ride up Buzzards bay was a blast at 10+. Saw the wind in the mid 20's

Spoke with some folks who did stay aboard. Not a very pleasant experience. We were lucky to get a room in town.

 

There was a fairly good-sized ketch up on the beach. I suspect that most of the small power boats that went ashore were quickly recovered. In any event, we were fine. Nantucket Moorings does 1000 lb mushrooms with fat dyneema pennants luggage tagged into fat nylon. Dennis runs a real cla$$ operation. No concern about our mooring or any of the boats upwind of us.

 

Return trip, same, same. We got underway later than I'd intended, too. Couldn't quite hold 6kt upwind against that square chop. Ended up at Woods Hole a lot closer to max flood than I prefer.

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Frying Pan Tower B&B, a former U.S. Coast Guard Light Station located 32 miles south of Bald Head, North Carolina.

 

Wow, that's a wave!!! Good thing it was outside of the environment. :lol:

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J/29 survived - so did we. Hell of a sail back from BI. For some reason I was the only one who wanted to sleep aboard during the TS... if nothing else, I found where all the thru-deck leaks are located.

 

Been sleeping well this week.

 

-Matt, Stout MHOB

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