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DryArmour

The Boiling Pacific...Getting pretty active. Tropical Wx

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The Eastern and Central Pacific are as active as I can recall over the last 20 years. A generally moist environment is increasing the chance for tropical storm development. Two areas are of particular interest at the moment. One 800 mi SSE of the Big Island of Hawaii is marginally likely to turn into something that requires watching. The second area is just east 140 degrees west and is already showing some rotation and cloud tops near the center are cold to very cold. Some SW shear is slowing rapid development for the moment. Both systems are moving generally westward @10-15mph. If you live in the Hawaiian Islands or are traveling there in the next week pay attention to the weather and local notifications. The Sea Surface temperatures are also much warmer than the average over the last 20 years and getting warmer and spreading northward.

Boiling Pacific July 23, 2014.jpg

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So, does this mean we get more rain in California this winter? Selfish, I admit, but I want to be able to sail my Laser and Hobie at the currently empty Huntington Lake and be able to wash down my Wilderness 30 in Santa Cruz harbor without less guilt. Forcasters are saying we're maybe in for a big rain El Nino winter, but who knows?

 

That does look like a lot of weather happening on that there map.

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Local water temp in Dana point had been running 5F above recent averages since May, but has dropped to the average in the last two weeks.

 

The big temperature anomaly has been at the southern tip of Baja... Probably +7-9F

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Local water temp in Dana point had been running 5F above recent averages since May, but has dropped to the average in the last two weeks.

 

The big temperature anomaly has been at the southern tip of Baja... Probably +7-9F

 

When the monsoonal flow returns the water temps will quickly go back up in So Cal waters. Give it 10 days...

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Is this going to have any major effect on the northern Pacific (north of Hawaii, anyhow)? We're doing a delivery of one of the Pac Cup boats from Oahu to the PNW.

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If it were me I would be exceptionally cautious this year. The entire North Pacific is potentially more volatile than usual. Get dependable weather information for sure.

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In 1983 I was caught in two El Nino systems in the Yucatan Channel...one heading south and the other returning north ....the seas were massive and the gale force winds seemed like they's never let up. I was double handing in a 27' sailboat...3 reefs in the main and the storm jib....nearly washed out of the cockpit by a breaking wave~~~~~~

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If it were me I would be exceptionally cautious this year. The entire North Pacific is potentially more volatile than usual. Get dependable weather information for sure.

+1

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This is something from last week here in Michigan that mentions El Nino.

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/07/does_lack_of_90_degree_days_th.html

 

And here is the link about it imbedded within the article

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/07/michigans_upcoming_winter_may.html

 

Has this changed in what you are seeing Dry Armour? What affects you all in the Pacific region eventually makes its way here in some form or another.

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As usual, Clean can't seem to get it all right.

 

The article he cited on the front page is dated from May, and hypes up the prospects of a [gasp] SUPER EL NINO! [add shock horror and renting of garments here]...

 

Only issue is, there was much compelling evidence that this year's El Nino event would be a weak one out there that many of the AGW (aka ClimateChange/Disruption) crowd ignored.

 

After all, there is Consensus (there isn't), about the "Settled Science" (it's not), that the planet is about to burn down and the oceans boil away (no time in the next few millenniums or so it appears).

 

http://judithcurry.com/2014/04/14/el-nino-watch/

 

Well, here we are several months later and this is where things stand:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-25/el-nino-seen-weak-or-delayed-for-several-months-by-forecasters.html

 

El Nino will probably develop as a weak event in late summer or early fall in the Northern Hemisphere, according to MDA Weather Services, while Commodity Weather Group LLC said it may be delayed for several months as the warming of the Pacific Ocean slows. Palm oil futures fell.

 

So Clean, why don't you put that up your Modoki.

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Also, lets keep the warming trend in SST's in historical perspective. When you say "boiling" you are engaging in needless -and misleading- hyperbole. First off SST's are generally shown as calculated during the "satellite era" which dates back to only 1979. And, as can be seen...is up by a "BOILING" .3 -three tenths- of a degree Celsius:

 

monthly-global.png

 

And the extended reconstruction of SST's looks like this:

 

ersst-1880-ann.png?itok=necBS6mU

 

Source:

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

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What affects you all in the Pacific region eventually makes its way here in some form or another.

 

Pretty good article here from the WashPo on just that subject:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/10/winter-2014-15-a-way-too-early-look-at-a-cold-and-snowy-possibility-in-d-c/

 

That is an interesting and informative article. Thanks for the post.

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Since that cheesy "super storm" sci flick is out, "validating" fears that the planet is in the throes of "EXTREME!" unprecedented weather events (its not), perhaps its a good idea to keep Global Cyclone Activity in perspective (sorry I cant get to the latest map updated today so this is from March):

 

frequency_12months.png

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Umm, I think boiling refers to the image of a cumulonimbus from the side. In this case many of then

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If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

 

It means you will die.

 

Please send all of the particulars of your current bank accounts and other financial holdings to me ASAP(I will PM you with my Bangalore address).

 

Sidmon

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If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

 

It means you will die.

 

Please send all of the particulars of your current bank accounts and other financial holdings to me ASAP(I will PM you with my Bangalore address).

 

Sidmon

 

GO POUND SAND. or whatever you have in Chicago.

 

Oh come now Dawg...Chicago will be the new Mauritius...All turquoise reef water, fair weather cummies overhead, and a beach full of oiled Euro-Titties...In February.

 

No point in you holding on to that cash when lucky anarchists who have had the good sense not to settle in a reconstituted desert could put it to good use after you've turned into a raisin!!!

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.

 

....just read a report of 60mph winds hitting Cabo this morning--seems like something of a surprise!.

...Mark,,,I know it's hard to do it ALL,,,please include the Mex folks in your forecasts when possible ;)

 

 

http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=74671

 

Yes, will do. That was an Easterly Wave that was unbelievably dynamic. Rare.

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Also, lets keep the warming trend in SST's in historical perspective. When you say "boiling" you are engaging in needless -and misleading- hyperbole. First off SST's are generally shown as calculated during the "satellite era" which dates back to only 1979. And, as can be seen...is up by a "BOILING" .3 -three tenths- of a degree Celsius:

 

monthly-global.png

 

And the extended reconstruction of SST's looks like this:

 

ersst-1880-ann.png?itok=necBS6mU

 

Source:

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

 

The term "boiling" was referring to the relatively large number of convective bursts seen in the image file included below the image and was in no way referencing a dramatic increase in SSTs. Are they warmer than normal? Yes, especially for the alley leading up to my home state (Hawaii) which has been home to two relatively cold pools of water the last few years inhibiting the chances of tropical cyclone activity as it approaches the islands.

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Mark, I know things are different from years past.

I also know when I go out, the SUN feels far more intense than years past.

 

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

I hope this is not too much to ask for an answer.

 

Hi Dawg-

 

I noticed as well that the sun does feel more intense these days. Here is a good article on the subject from Skeptical Science News letter.

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Those are both great data pages. Thank you for posting them. The information certainly would lead one to believe that the North Atlantic should be off the chart with major hurricanes in 2014 but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

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....................but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

.

....'alas'??....you actually want hurricanes? :huh:

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It rained at the beach yesterday in Santa Monica Bay. A man in his twenties was struck by lightning while swimming (?) and died. Nearby volleyball players were hit too and dropped like a sack of potatoes. They were checked out and fine.

 

Water sports in Long Beach but I haven't heard this one before.

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....................but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

.

....'alas'??....you actually want hurricanes? :huh:

 

Yes. Big ones that are nasty as hell. I would prefer they behave though and only affect the fish. I live for these things man. Nature and our inability to make meaningful changes in its behavior fascinates me. Tornadoes and earthquakes run a close second. Planet killer asteroids are also on my list of fascinating phenomenon.

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....................but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

.

....'alas'??....you actually want hurricanes? :huh:

 

Yes. Big ones that are nasty as hell. I would prefer they behave though and only affect the fish. I live for these things man. Nature and our inability to make meaningful changes in its behavior fascinates me. Tornadoes and earthquakes run a close second. Planet killer asteroids are also on my list of fascinating phenomenon.

.

....ahh,yes...I can understand the fascination for sure,,,,,,just keep them out of the environment**,,,and warn us otherwise! ;)

 

 

............**......including mexico!

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....................but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

.

....'alas'??....you actually want hurricanes? :huh:

 

Yes. Big ones that are nasty as hell. I would prefer they behave though and only affect the fish. I live for these things man. Nature and our inability to make meaningful changes in its behavior fascinates me. Tornadoes and earthquakes run a close second. Planet killer asteroids are also on my list of fascinating phenomenon.

 

Thanks for that. We need more Sandy-like events in the Atlantic. Unless you've found a way to steer them over the fish???

 

Myself, I'm fascinated by the hope that California will soon fall into the ocean in the Big One. Maybe that would temper your world view of interesting phenomena.

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....................but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

.

....'alas'??....you actually want hurricanes? :huh:

 

Yes. Big ones that are nasty as hell. I would prefer they behave though and only affect the fish. I live for these things man. Nature and our inability to make meaningful changes in its behavior fascinates me. Tornadoes and earthquakes run a close second. Planet killer asteroids are also on my list of fascinating phenomenon.

 

Thanks for that. We need more Sandy-like events in the Atlantic. Unless you've found a way to steer them over the fish???

 

Myself, I'm fascinated by the hope that California will soon fall into the ocean in the Big One. Maybe that would temper your world view of interesting phenomena.

 

The BIG ONE is on a transform fault. We simply take a 15+ meter ride toward Siberia. There is no vertical component and there is nothing to fall off.

 

I grew up in North Carolina and Hawaii. My personal interaction with violent nature including hurricanes, tornadoes and now living here major earthquakes is what got me fascinated in the subject to begin with. I never hope that a major hurricane does anything to damage life or property but rather study and forecast them for people here in an effort to help them best prepare with longer range path and intensity guidance. A 12 hour jump can make the difference between getting what's important and getting out and sitting on the beltway for six hours in major traffic after the local authorities finally order an evacuation. I did this with Katrina in 2005 and with Sandy in 2012 as well as many other storms. To the best of my knowledge the earliest warnings for the sailing community came here on the SA boards and people were kind enough to send notes of appreciation after the dust settled following these events and others. I do it for free and I do my best to give people accurate assessments of the situation in real time including answering my cell phone at 2AM or replying to texts pretty much all night as severe weather threatens communities around the globe. OFF SOAPBOX.

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Also, lets keep the warming trend in SST's in historical perspective. When you say "boiling" you are engaging in needless -and misleading- hyperbole. First off SST's are generally shown as calculated during the "satellite era" which dates back to only 1979. And, as can be seen...is up by a "BOILING" .3 -three tenths- of a degree Celsius:

 

monthly-global.png

 

And the extended reconstruction of SST's looks like this:

 

ersst-1880-ann.png?itok=necBS6mU

 

Source:

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

 

The term "boiling" was referring to the relatively large number of convective bursts seen in the image file included below the image and was in no way referencing a dramatic increase in SSTs. Are they warmer than normal? Yes, especially for the alley leading up to my home state (Hawaii) which has been home to two relatively cold pools of water the last few years inhibiting the chances of tropical cyclone activity as it approaches the islands.

 

Straight up. Your headline "Boiling Pacific" is following the current trend of goofy histrionics swirling about the weather.

 

You can -And Should- Do better than that.

 

"Boiling Pacific" belongs to theatrics of this caliber:

 

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Mark, I know things are different from years past.

I also know when I go out, the SUN feels far more intense than years past.

 

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

I hope this is not too much to ask for an answer.

 

Hi Dawg-

 

I noticed as well that the sun does feel more intense these days. Here is a good article on the subject from Skeptical Science News letter.

 

More of that [uN]Settled Science in action.

 

We are at an historic low point in solar cycles.

 

But you don't hear much about this, as the current fashion...especially as exemplified in Skeptical Science...is to denigrate legitimate views that the world is not on the precipice of a human caused meltdown.

 

There is in fact compelling evidence this historically weak solar cycle could well lead to decades of Global Cooling...Yes.Cooling...

 

So yeah Dawg. People could very well die - as has been occurring in the UK in recent years - from cold because they can't pay for heat.

 

http://thesiweather.com/2014/07/16/1045-am-the-sun-has-gone-quiet-solar-cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-a-century/

 

Discussion

Overview

Ten days ago, the sun was quite active and peppered with several large spots. Now the sun has gone quiet and it is nearly completely blank. It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. It looks as if this solar cycle is “double-peaked” (see below) which is not all that uncommon; however, it is somewhat rare that the second peak in sunspot number during the solar max phase is larger than the first. In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost no sunspots, a very unusual situation during a solar minimum phase that had not happened for almost a century

http://patriotpost.us/posts/27566

If current solar projections are any indication, the globe may be entering a new period of globalcooling. SI meteorologist Paul Dorian explains: “It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. … In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. … There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the ‘Maunder Minimum’ … and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the ‘Dalton Minimum’ … and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the ‘Little Ice Age.’” So what does all this mean? “If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles,” writes Dorian, “then there would likely be more talk of another ‘grand minimum’ for the sun.” Only time will tell, but at this rate, alarmists will be clamoring “global warming” hubris through chattering teeth.

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And, Oh yeah...

 

As the Pacific "Boils"

 

Here has been the conditions on Lake Michigan these last few days...

 

(And yes, Its all happened before, so don't get scared Clean)

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
618 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 /718 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

...UNSEASONABLY HIGH WAVES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...

MULTIPLE STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND BROUGHT AN AUTUMN-LIKE PATTERN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT WERE ORIENTED ALONG THE FETCH OF THE LAKE AND
PRODUCED NEAR RECORD LARGE WAVES FOR JULY AT THE SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN MID LAKE BUOY. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
PEAKED AT 8.5 FT A LITTLE BEFORE 1 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE TOP JULY WAVE HEIGHTS BY DAY AT THE SOUTH MID LAKE
BUOY DATING BACK TO 1981:

DATE HIGHEST WAVE OBSERVATION
--------------------------------------------
1) JULY 21 1981 9.2 FT
2) JULY 15 1987 8.9 FT
3) JULY 28 2014 8.5 FT
JULY 20 2007 8.5 FT
5) JULY 19 1996 8.1 FT
6) JULY 23 2013 7.9 FT

PRIOR TO THIS MORNING...THERE HAD ONLY BEEN THREE OTHER HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS DURING THE MONTH OF JULY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR
ABOVE 8.5 FT AT THE SOUTH BUOY. LOOKING AT METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER
/JUNE-AUGUST/...THERE HAD ONLY BEEN 56 HOURLY OBSERVATIONS OF WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8.5 FT OR HIGHER PRIOR TO THIS MORNING. THAT IS LESS
THAN 0.001 PERCENT OF ALL SUMMERTIME OBSERVATIONS AT THAT BUOY!

NORTH WINDS LIKE WE SAW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE
ALMOST ALWAYS THE CULPRIT TO HIGH WAVES OVER THE LAKE. IN ALL THE
SUMMERTIME INSTANCES OF WAVES AT OR ABOVE 8.5 FT AT THE SOUTH
BUOY...THE WIND DIRECTION WAS NORTHWEST...NORTH...OR NORTHEAST ON
ALL BUT ONE OF THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.

THE BUOY OFF THE SHORE OF MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA SAW EVEN LARGER
WAVES...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS THUS FAR HAVING PEAKED AT 12.4 FT JUST
AFTER 300 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING. THAT BUOY RECORDED WAVES OF 9 FT
OR GREATER BETWEEN 12 AM AND 6 AM CDT MONDAY.

A FEW FACTORS LED TO THE LARGE WAVES AT THE MICHIGAN CITY
BUOY...WHICH ARE PROBABLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WAVES
EXPERIENCED ALONG MUCH OF THE INDIANA SHORE AND EVEN PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO SHORE. FIRST...THE NORTH WINDS CREATED A LONG FETCH...OR
DISTANCE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH RESULTED IN LARGER WAVES AT THE END
OF THE FETCH. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED WAS THE
WATER TEMPERATURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SOUTH BUOY WERE 5F TO 7F DEGREES COLDER THAN
ALONG THE SHORE. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
WATER TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY WAS HIGHER NEAR THE SHORE WHICH
ALLOWED FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER WAVES THAN OBSERVED AT
THE MID LAKE BUOY. WINDS AT THE SOUTH BUOY PEAKED AT 35 KNOTS...OR
40 MPH...BETWEEN 10 PM AND 11 PM SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE ON THE SHORE
OF MICHIGAN CITY /SITE MCYI3/ WINDS PEAKED AT 42 KNOTS OR 48 MPH
BETWEEN 12 AM AND 1 AM MONDAY MORNING.

Temperatures
THE LARGE WAVES CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR RECORD COLD WATER TEMPERATURES.LARGE WAVES CAUSE UPWELLING...WHICH BRINGS COLDER SUB-SURFACE WATERUPWARD TOWARD THE SURFACE RESULTING IN COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.THE WATER TEMPERATURE AT THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MID LAKE BUOYDROPPED TO 14.9C (58.8F) FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. ONLYONCE BEFORE HAVE WATER TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THAT BEENOBSERVED AT THE MID LAKE BUOY THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER (JULY 28THTHROUGH AUGUST 31ST)...WHICH WAS BACK ON AUGUST 29TH/30TH OF 2009WHEN THE WATER TEMPERATURE DIPPED AS LOW AS 14.1C (57.4F).TYPICALLY WATER TEMPERATURES AT THE SOUTHERN MID LAKE BUOY IN LATEJULY AND AUGUST ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A LOOK BACK ATHOURLY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID LAKE BUOY GOING BACK TO1981...PRIOR TO TODAY THERE HAD ONLY BEEN 19 HOURLY OBSERVATIONSWITH WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 15.0C (59.0F) THIS LATE INTO THESUMMER SEASON. OUT OF OVER 25,000 OBSERVATIONS THAT EQUATES TOA FREQUENCY OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE PERCENT

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Mark, I know things are different from years past.

I also know when I go out, the SUN feels far more intense than years past.

 

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

I hope this is not too much to ask for an answer.

 

Hi Dawg-

 

I noticed as well that the sun does feel more intense these days. Here is a good article on the subject from Skeptical Science News letter.

 

More of that [uN]Settled Science in action.

 

We are at an historic low point in solar cycles.

 

But you don't hear much about this, as the current fashion...especially as exemplified in Skeptical Science...is to denigrate legitimate views that the world is not on the precipice of a human caused meltdown.

 

There is in fact compelling evidence this historically weak solar cycle could well lead to decades of Global Cooling...Yes.Cooling...

 

So yeah Dawg. People could very well die - as has been occurring in the UK in recent years - from cold because they can't pay for heat.

 

http://thesiweather.com/2014/07/16/1045-am-the-sun-has-gone-quiet-solar-cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-a-century/

 

Discussion

Overview

Ten days ago, the sun was quite active and peppered with several large spots. Now the sun has gone quiet and it is nearly completely blank. It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. It looks as if this solar cycle is “double-peaked” (see below) which is not all that uncommon; however, it is somewhat rare that the second peak in sunspot number during the solar max phase is larger than the first. In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost no sunspots, a very unusual situation during a solar minimum phase that had not happened for almost a century

http://patriotpost.us/posts/27566

If current solar projections are any indication, the globe may be entering a new period of globalcooling. SI meteorologist Paul Dorian explains: “It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. … In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. … There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the ‘Maunder Minimum’ … and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the ‘Dalton Minimum’ … and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the ‘Little Ice Age.’” So what does all this mean? “If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles,” writes Dorian, “then there would likely be more talk of another ‘grand minimum’ for the sun.” Only time will tell, but at this rate, alarmists will be clamoring “global warming” hubris through chattering teeth.

 

Yes, if only we would all listen to scientific assessments from such esteemed publications as "patriotpost.us"

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Mark, I know things are different from years past.

I also know when I go out, the SUN feels far more intense than years past.

 

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

I hope this is not too much to ask for an answer.

 

Hi Dawg-

 

I noticed as well that the sun does feel more intense these days. Here is a good article on the subject from Skeptical Science News letter.

 

More of that [uN]Settled Science in action.

 

We are at an historic low point in solar cycles.

 

But you don't hear much about this, as the current fashion...especially as exemplified in Skeptical Science...is to denigrate legitimate views that the world is not on the precipice of a human caused meltdown.

 

There is in fact compelling evidence this historically weak solar cycle could well lead to decades of Global Cooling...Yes.Cooling...

 

So yeah Dawg. People could very well die - as has been occurring in the UK in recent years - from cold because they can't pay for heat.

 

http://thesiweather.com/2014/07/16/1045-am-the-sun-has-gone-quiet-solar-cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-a-century/

 

Discussion

Overview

Ten days ago, the sun was quite active and peppered with several large spots. Now the sun has gone quiet and it is nearly completely blank. It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. It looks as if this solar cycle is “double-peaked” (see below) which is not all that uncommon; however, it is somewhat rare that the second peak in sunspot number during the solar max phase is larger than the first. In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost no sunspots, a very unusual situation during a solar minimum phase that had not happened for almost a century

http://patriotpost.us/posts/27566

If current solar projections are any indication, the globe may be entering a new period of globalcooling. SI meteorologist Paul Dorian explains: “It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. … In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. … There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the ‘Maunder Minimum’ … and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the ‘Dalton Minimum’ … and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the ‘Little Ice Age.’” So what does all this mean? “If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles,” writes Dorian, “then there would likely be more talk of another ‘grand minimum’ for the sun.” Only time will tell, but at this rate, alarmists will be clamoring “global warming” hubris through chattering teeth.

 

Yes, if only we would all listen to scientific assessments from such esteemed publications as "patriotpost.us"

 

Intentional tit for tat after Skeptical Science....

 

I am all for getting back to a rational discourse in Meteorology and Climate Science.

 

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

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Mark, I know things are different from years past.

I also know when I go out, the SUN feels far more intense than years past.

 

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

 

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

I hope this is not too much to ask for an answer.

 

Hi Dawg-

 

I noticed as well that the sun does feel more intense these days. Here is a good article on the subject from Skeptical Science News letter.

 

More of that [uN]Settled Science in action.

 

We are at an historic low point in solar cycles.

 

But you don't hear much about this, as the current fashion...especially as exemplified in Skeptical Science...is to denigrate legitimate views that the world is not on the precipice of a human caused meltdown.

 

There is in fact compelling evidence this historically weak solar cycle could well lead to decades of Global Cooling...Yes.Cooling...

 

So yeah Dawg. People could very well die - as has been occurring in the UK in recent years - from cold because they can't pay for heat.

 

http://thesiweather.com/2014/07/16/1045-am-the-sun-has-gone-quiet-solar-cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-a-century/

 

Discussion

Overview

Ten days ago, the sun was quite active and peppered with several large spots. Now the sun has gone quiet and it is nearly completely blank. It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. It looks as if this solar cycle is “double-peaked” (see below) which is not all that uncommon; however, it is somewhat rare that the second peak in sunspot number during the solar max phase is larger than the first. In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost no sunspots, a very unusual situation during a solar minimum phase that had not happened for almost a century

http://patriotpost.us/posts/27566

If current solar projections are any indication, the globe may be entering a new period of globalcooling. SI meteorologist Paul Dorian explains: “It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. … In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. … There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the ‘Maunder Minimum’ … and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the ‘Dalton Minimum’ … and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the ‘Little Ice Age.’” So what does all this mean? “If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles,” writes Dorian, “then there would likely be more talk of another ‘grand minimum’ for the sun.” Only time will tell, but at this rate, alarmists will be clamoring “global warming” hubris through chattering teeth.

 

Yes, if only we would all listen to scientific assessments from such esteemed publications as "patriotpost.us"

 

Did you show us any tits?...

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Good stuff, sidmon.

 

I keep an archive of climatological data that refutes the climate alarmists. I'll add your data. Good point about "consensus." Science doesn't work by "consensus." Science is hard and unforgiving and isn't swayed by public opinion.

 

My favorite example of this is Stanley B. Prusiner, who lived and worked as a pariah, for decades, in the neurological research community for his theory on prions, those rogue proteins responsible for Mad Cow and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Isolated, and called a kook, his theory was in complete opposition to the "consensus," but was eventually proven correct. Prusiner won a Nobel Prize in 1997.

 

People who say AGW is accepted as being the "scientific consensus" would make me laugh if I had a higher tolerance for ignorance.

 

I know: take it to political anarchy :rolleyes:

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I know: take it to political anarchy :rolleyes:

 

 

It was Clean who headlined the -Not Gonna Happen- Super El Nino for this summer.

 

And Dry Armour got wrapped up too tight in the current Roker-ized way of talking about the weather, which only served to tarnish his otherwise excellent treatise.

 

Sure the Pacific is hotter than the 1970 average by a fraction of a degree...but the PDO looks to be on the verge of flipping so its not a straight line to oblivion.

 

Whats really sad is that the NOAA folks I know at Silver Spring are trying to survive in this kind of environment as its alllll about "funding":

 

consensus.jpg

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I know: take it to political anarchy :rolleyes:

 

 

It was Clean who headlined the -Not Gonna Happen- Super El Nino for this summer.

 

And Dry Armour got wrapped up too tight in the current Roker-ized way of talking about the weather, which only served to tarnish his otherwise excellent treatise.

 

Sure the Pacific is hotter than the 1970 average by a fraction of a degree...but the PDO looks to be on the verge of flipping so its not a straight line to oblivion.

 

Whats really sad is that the NOAA folks I know at Silver Spring are trying to survive in this kind of environment as its alllll about "funding":

 

consensus.jpg

 

Holy Smokes....Okay, to be CLEAR. I am not one who subscribes to the idea of human induced dramatic climate change. If you have followed my postings over the last 14 years here you would know that I have a cautious view of year over year measurements and take a decade or century long view of the subject. I am not worried about humanity massively shifting the earth's climate. One good volcanic super eruption and we'll all be wishing for a warmer climate. That event isn't an IF it is a WHEN but in the scope of geologic time it may be hundreds or thousands of years before one occurs. I am not holding my breath. Even without a massive eruption though I do not believe that we are going to have the catastrophic impact on our planet so many doomsday "Global Warming" fanatics espoused to ten years ago...

 

The "Boiling Pacific" referred to the level of convective activity THE DAY I POSTED the IR satellite file. It did NOT refer to the ACE or SSTs being wildly more energetic than usual. Overall the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific have been colder than normal from 2009-2013. My main concern is for my friends and my home state of Hawaii who on September 11, 1992 were devastated by Hurricane Iniki and a LOT of my closest friends lost everything they had. In November of 1982 I went through hurricane Iwa on Oahu and saw what happens first hand when this group of islands encounters a hurricane. Certain factors must be in place for events of this nature to occur and this year many of the critical ones are already in place. I am not saying it is going to happen this year but it is a lot more likely than it has been in some time and letting people know that early may help them better prepare for a tropical system should one form and come visit the Aloha state. Keep posting the scientific data links as more information is always appreciated as are views that are contrary to mine. I like reading all of the information and then making decisions based on what makes sense to me. Your mileage may vary.

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for what it is worth, Mark, I instantly knew that the "boiling" you were talking about was convective circulation..

 

Only those unfortunates who have not been reading your informative synopses over the years would have taken the phrase otherwise.....

 

Keep up the great work, and thank you...

 

 

MFBR

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...yeh Mark..I'd have to say there's likely been -lives-saved- just for the information you've posted ..here,,for..free.. :)

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It seems more Solar and Galactic Radiation are getting to the surface of the planet.

WHY?

.

....yeh,,good question...why does a reletively short exposure seem more burny,,,compared to 20 years ago? :huh:

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It seems more Solar and Galactic Radiation are getting to the surface of the planet.

WHY?

.

....yeh,,good question...why does a reletively short exposure seem more burny,,,compared to 20 years ago? :huh:

 

Is the sun "more intense"?

 

Its not...

 

But your skin is 20 years older.

 

Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progressio

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It seems more Solar and Galactic Radiation are getting to the surface of the planet.

WHY?

.

....yeh,,good question...why does a reletively short exposure seem more burny,,,compared to 20 years ago? :huh:

 

Is the sun "more intense"?

 

Its not...

 

But your skin is 20 years older.

 

Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progressio

 

I understand what you are saying about the skin getting older (Mine is no different) but I agree with DAWG. The intensity feels like it has increased. I say that not ignoring science but just as a shared observation that this summer, even through clothing there is a difference I can feel which means it may not be that subtle. Thoughts on why this may be the case? (I don't have any answers either). I have not been to Australia or NZ. Does the sun feel hotter where there is less ozone? I know you burn faster without it but does it feel hotter?

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The "Boiling Pacific" referred to the level of convective activity THE DAY I POSTED the IR satellite file. It did NOT refer to the ACE or SSTs being wildly more energetic than usual. Overall the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific have been colder than normal from 2009-2013. My main concern is for my friends and my home state of Hawaii who on September 11, 1992 were devastated by Hurricane Iniki and a LOT of my closest friends lost everything they had. In November of 1982 I went through hurricane Iwa on Oahu and saw what happens first hand when this group of islands encounters a hurricane. Certain factors must be in place for events of this nature to occur and this year many of the critical ones are already in place. I am not saying it is going to happen this year but it is a lot more likely than it has been in some time and letting people know that early may help them better prepare for a tropical system should one form and come visit the Aloha state. Keep posting the scientific data links as more information is always appreciated as are views that are contrary to mine. I like reading all of the information and then making decisions based on what makes sense to me. Your mileage may vary.

 

Between Clean's "Boiling Point" headliner and immediate link to the [won't happen this year] Super El Nino primer to no specific reference made in your post, some may have picked up on it (and this being SA I know I am gonna piled on -but hey!- theres tits here) but it was by no means obvious you were referring to the ITCZ crud.

 

Still standing by that it was bit too much hyperbole in the title. Especially in this hyper politicized environment.

 

As for hurricanes...As one who first experienced what its like to be in a CAT III eye wall when Hurricane Donna swept across Central Florida in 1960; barely made it across the bar of the Atchafalya on a Seis boat in 92 before it became impassable as Andrew approached Louisiana for its second landfall (we later recorded 110 kts while on the wall in New Iberia and nearly got crushed by a runaway marsh barge); and was lucky to still have the boat after Ike in Houston 2008...

 

I can share your concern for your friends.

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.........^^...all true!....'old' skin indeed.......I guess I should coin-up for the 'Dry-Armour' touch! :rolleyes:

 

 

....but I certainly wasn't even using sunscreen 20 years ago either!

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It seems more Solar and Galactic Radiation are getting to the surface of the planet.

WHY?

.

....yeh,,good question...why does a reletively short exposure seem more burny,,,compared to 20 years ago? :huh:

 

Is the sun "more intense"?

 

Its not...

 

But your skin is 20 years older.

 

Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progressio

 

I understand what you are saying about the skin getting older (Mine is no different) but I agree with DAWG. The intensity feels like it has increased. I say that not ignoring science but just as a shared observation that this summer, even through clothing there is a difference I can feel which means it may not be that subtle. Thoughts on why this may be the case? (I don't have any answers either). I have not been to Australia or NZ. Does the sun feel hotter where there is less ozone? I know you burn faster without it but does it feel hotter?

 

I don't know...

 

But here is some data:

 

TSI.jpg

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....................but alas just like in 2006-2007 the jet stream and upper level low pressure system dynamics simply are not allowing much to form...We'll have to see how August and September/October play out.

.

....'alas'??....you actually want hurricanes? :huh:

 

Yes. Big ones that are nasty as hell. I would prefer they behave though and only affect the fish. I live for these things man. Nature and our inability to make meaningful changes in its behavior fascinates me. Tornadoes and earthquakes run a close second. Planet killer asteroids are also on my list of fascinating phenomenon.

I'm with you mate. I'm amateur weather geek by comparison to you but it fascinates me to the nth degree as well. Chaotic dynamic system of all types I marvel at. But then again I'm a big fan of the Chaos Theory or nonlinear dynamics. It changes a lot things that you think about for weather and the big picture of the universe as a whole. I don't really understand the actual math that well but I understand what it means.

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The "Boiling Pacific" referred to the level of convective activity THE DAY I POSTED the IR satellite file. It did NOT refer to the ACE or SSTs being wildly more energetic than usual. Overall the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific have been colder than normal from 2009-2013. My main concern is for my friends and my home state of Hawaii who on September 11, 1992 were devastated by Hurricane Iniki and a LOT of my closest friends lost everything they had. In November of 1982 I went through hurricane Iwa on Oahu and saw what happens first hand when this group of islands encounters a hurricane. Certain factors must be in place for events of this nature to occur and this year many of the critical ones are already in place. I am not saying it is going to happen this year but it is a lot more likely than it has been in some time and letting people know that early may help them better prepare for a tropical system should one form and come visit the Aloha state. Keep posting the scientific data links as more information is always appreciated as are views that are contrary to mine. I like reading all of the information and then making decisions based on what makes sense to me. Your mileage may vary.

 

Between Clean's "Boiling Point" headliner and immediate link to the [won't happen this year] Super El Nino primer to no specific reference made in your post, some may have picked up on it (and this being SA I know I am gonna piled on -but hey!- theres tits here) but it was by no means obvious you were referring to the ITCZ crud.

 

Still standing by that it was bit too much hyperbole in the title. Especially in this hyper politicized environment.

 

As for hurricanes...As one who first experienced what its like to be in a CAT III eye wall when Hurricane Donna swept across Central Florida in 1960; barely made it across the bar of the Atchafalya on a Seis boat in 92 before it became impassable as Andrew approached Louisiana for its second landfall (we later recorded 110 kts while on the wall in New Iberia and nearly got crushed by a runaway marsh barge); and was lucky to still have the boat after Ike in Houston 2008...

 

I can share your concern for your friends.

 

Then you know EXACTLY what I am talking about when it comes to understanding the absolutely insane amount of energy on display in the eyewall of a Major Hurricane. I have tried to explain it to people who have never been through one but the words never seem to quite capture the screaming specters and crazy airborne crap that goes by you at 110mph....Rain hitting so hard it feels more like needles on your skin instead of rain drops. Trying to help my fiends and their families here on SA is all I am trying to do. I certainly don't want to compete for the Jim Cantore Academy Award for over hyped conditions... I'll parse my words more carefully in the future...

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This has nothing to do with sunspots. It has to do with Radiation getting through.

Either the Magnetic field is weaker or the Atmosphere is not filtering/stopping it.

 

and if my skin and the nerves are 20 years older, they should be less sensitive?

I understand everyone will burn, but I feel more Intensity.

 

So why do I FEEL more intensity?

Are my nerves becoming more sensitive or is the Radiation becoming more intense?

 

I posted a total irradiance graph as well.

 

Don't see any hockey stick signatures on it...

 

But, I don't know. Perhaps the air is cleaner where you live?

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Then you know EXACTLY what I am talking about when it comes to understanding the absolutely insane amount of energy on display in the eyewall ....... the screaming specters and crazy airborne crap that goes by you at 110mph....being slapped so hard it feels more like needles on your skin .....

.

.....sounds like when the GF found my 'plenty of fish' ad :mellow::(

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Then you know EXACTLY what I am talking about when it comes to understanding the absolutely insane amount of energy on display in the eyewall ....... the screaming specters and crazy airborne crap that goes by you at 110mph....being slapped so hard it feels more like needles on your skin .....

.

.....sounds like when the GF found my 'plenty of fish' ad :mellow::(

 

OMG that is Hilarious!

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DA, as a lay person as far as weather goes, I appreciate it. Especially as one that just moved from the PNW and it's wimpy weather to the Big Island on the wet side, we do worry about it some. My wife grew up on Oahu, has been thru a couple of big ones, but the most wind I've ever been in coming from Seattle is about 70mph. At 65 we were out working clearing roads and watching for downed wires. So this is all new to me.

 

It's already been really wet in Pahoa this past few weeks. I've been here in Seattle where except for a few days last week, of course while we were having our Race Week, it has been great. 80 deg. days, 60 at night, sunny and really almost too hot for us PNW'ers, with great northerly thermals most of the time.

 

And for those of you that don't really know the PNW, that never happens. It rains all the time and is wet all the time, 365/12/24/7....ALWAYS! ;)

 

So what you are saying is I should really keep an eye on things when I get back to Hawaii on thurs.?

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The "Boiling Pacific" referred to the level of convective activity THE DAY I POSTED the IR satellite file. It did NOT refer to the ACE or SSTs being wildly more energetic than usual. Overall the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific have been colder than normal from 2009-2013. My main concern is for my friends and my home state of Hawaii who on September 11, 1992 were devastated by Hurricane Iniki and a LOT of my closest friends lost everything they had. In November of 1982 I went through hurricane Iwa on Oahu and saw what happens first hand when this group of islands encounters a hurricane. Certain factors must be in place for events of this nature to occur and this year many of the critical ones are already in place. I am not saying it is going to happen this year but it is a lot more likely than it has been in some time and letting people know that early may help them better prepare for a tropical system should one form and come visit the Aloha state. Keep posting the scientific data links as more information is always appreciated as are views that are contrary to mine. I like reading all of the information and then making decisions based on what makes sense to me. Your mileage may vary.

 

Between Clean's "Boiling Point" headliner and immediate link to the [won't happen this year] Super El Nino primer to no specific reference made in your post, some may have picked up on it (and this being SA I know I am gonna piled on -but hey!- theres tits here) but it was by no means obvious you were referring to the ITCZ crud.

 

Still standing by that it was bit too much hyperbole in the title. Especially in this hyper politicized environment.

 

As for hurricanes...As one who first experienced what its like to be in a CAT III eye wall when Hurricane Donna swept across Central Florida in 1960; barely made it across the bar of the Atchafalya on a Seis boat in 92 before it became impassable as Andrew approached Louisiana for its second landfall (we later recorded 110 kts while on the wall in New Iberia and nearly got crushed by a runaway marsh barge); and was lucky to still have the boat after Ike in Houston 2008...

 

I can share your concern for your friends.

 

Then you know EXACTLY what I am talking about when it comes to understanding the absolutely insane amount of energy on display in the eyewall of a Major Hurricane. I have tried to explain it to people who have never been through one but the words never seem to quite capture the screaming specters and crazy airborne crap that goes by you at 110mph....Rain hitting so hard it feels more like needles on your skin instead of rain drops. Trying to help my fiends and their families here on SA is all I am trying to do. I certainly don't want to compete for the Jim Cantore Academy Award for over hyped conditions... I'll parse my words more carefully in the future...

 

I hear yah. The best thing about the forced move up here to Chi Town is I don't have to deal with them any more...At least as far as my boat goes.

 

However, my curmudgeonly nature has brought about some juju karma concerning TS -soon to be Typhoon- Halong which is causing me more than a few vexations and dyspepsia just now in Day Job.

 

Forecast changed alot since yesterday.

 

(thought you would get some justifiable humor for that. and since i am work I can't look at a nice set of tits either!)

 

So, to your point...

 

wp1114.gif

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Alas, don't forget about the "Typhoon Recurve Rule" and what that means for the central US 6-10 days after Halong turns out to the northeast.

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DA, as a lay person as far as weather goes, I appreciate it. Especially as one that just moved from the PNW and it's wimpy weather to the Big Island on the wet side, we do worry about it some. My wife grew up on Oahu, has been thru a couple of big ones, but the most wind I've ever been in coming from Seattle is about 70mph. At 65 we were out working clearing roads and watching for downed wires. So this is all new to me.

 

It's already been really wet in Pahoa this past few weeks. I've been here in Seattle where except for a few days last week, of course while we were having our Race Week, it has been great. 80 deg. days, 60 at night, sunny and really almost too hot for us PNW'ers, with great northerly thermals most of the time.

 

And for those of you that don't really know the PNW, that never happens. It rains all the time and is wet all the time, 365/12/24/7....ALWAYS! ;)

 

So what you are saying is I should really keep an eye on things when I get back to Hawaii on thurs.?

 

Yes. Genevieve (Despite predictions of dissipation) has regenerated. She may end up south of the islands and wander west but if she intensifies and rotates around the periphery of the Pacific high then a visit to the 50th state isn't out of the question. Short term models suggest tropical storm strength is not far off but the longer view doesn't give he much chance of surviving beyond 60 hours. I'd be paying close attention...

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Alas, don't forget about the "Typhoon Recurve Rule" and what that means for the central US 6-10 days after Halong turns out to the northeast.

 

It is a very long way from Japan across the Pacific and the intensity is usually tapped out by the time it rolls back across the Pacific. This is not the case however in the late season (Think November) when cold fronts can accelerate systems in the recurve phase and get them here before they are tapped out but that is still pretty rare and unlikely this time of year...

 

The CMC model takes Halong into South Korea with no recurve. Running the GFS right and we'll have to see what that one thinks.

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DA, as a lay person as far as weather goes, I appreciate it. Especially as one that just moved from the PNW and it's wimpy weather to the Big Island on the wet side, we do worry about it some. My wife grew up on Oahu, has been thru a couple of big ones, but the most wind I've ever been in coming from Seattle is about 70mph. At 65 we were out working clearing roads and watching for downed wires. So this is all new to me.

 

It's already been really wet in Pahoa this past few weeks. I've been here in Seattle where except for a few days last week, of course while we were having our Race Week, it has been great. 80 deg. days, 60 at night, sunny and really almost too hot for us PNW'ers, with great northerly thermals most of the time.

 

And for those of you that don't really know the PNW, that never happens. It rains all the time and is wet all the time, 365/12/24/7....ALWAYS! ;)

 

So what you are saying is I should really keep an eye on things when I get back to Hawaii on thurs.?

 

Yes. Genevieve (Despite predictions of dissipation) has regenerated. She may end up south of the islands and wander west but if she intensifies and rotates around the periphery of the Pacific high then a visit to the 50th state isn't out of the question. Short term models suggest tropical storm strength is not far off but the longer view doesn't give he much chance of surviving beyond 60 hours. I'd be paying close attention...

 

The JTWC 22Z is calling it a depression. Still some circulation to it but the NE side is open.

 

ep0714.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 292200MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//RMKS/1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 013       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   291800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 148.0W     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 148.0W    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   300600Z --- 13.0N 149.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   301800Z --- 13.1N 150.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   310600Z --- 13.2N 151.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   311800Z --- 13.3N 152.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   011800Z --- 13.6N 154.5W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   021800Z --- 14.0N 157.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS    ---   120 HRS, VALID AT:   031800Z --- 14.5N 159.7W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---REMARKS:292200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 148.3W.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NMSOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PASTSIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HERNAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//NNNN

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Yes. Genevieve (Despite predictions of dissipation) has regenerated. She may end up south of the islands and wander west but if she intensifies and rotates around the periphery of the Pacific high then a visit to the 50th state isn't out of the question. Short term models suggest tropical storm strength is not far off but the longer view doesn't give he much chance of surviving beyond 60 hours. I'd be paying close attention...

Yeah, yesterday the CPHC discussion mentioned model guidance suggesting it was likely to re-intensify but chose not to update their advisory. Thankfully they don't get quite as much practice up in Manoa as the folks in Miami. I'm not sure they ever worked out that how silly their belief last year that a TS would go right over the highest mountains for thousands of miles around was. I read them and appreciate their effort but I don't take it as gospel.

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^^^ it can be dodge ball going south this time of year. Historically there hasn't been much prior warning of hotspots going south from Hawaii. Lots of nasty stuff goes south of the islands without any official notice.

 

Speaking of the islands GFS says Gen mostly brings rain to the big island and it's worth keeping an eye open for late next week for a new system. Not that I'd put much faith in it.

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Then you know EXACTLY what I am talking about when it comes to understanding the absolutely insane amount of energy on display in the eyewall ....... the screaming specters and crazy airborne crap that goes by you at 110mph....being slapped so hard it feels more like needles on your skin .....

.

.....sounds like when the GF found my 'plenty of fish' ad :mellow::(

This could very well be the post of the year.

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Alas, don't forget about the "Typhoon Recurve Rule" and what that means for the central US 6-10 days after Halong turns out to the northeast.

 

It is a very long way from Japan across the Pacific and the intensity is usually tapped out by the time it rolls back across the Pacific. This is not the case however in the late season (Think November) when cold fronts can accelerate systems in the recurve phase and get them here before they are tapped out but that is still pretty rare and unlikely this time of year...

 

The CMC model takes Halong into South Korea with no recurve. Running the GFS right and we'll have to see what that one thinks.

 

Huh???

 

EVERY storm - or the dregs of a dissipated one- recurves at some point. Coriolis+Westerlies...and all that.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/494532312185331712/photo/1

 

You haven't heard of the Rule? Its not like anyone is expecting the storm itself will get back to CONUS somehow. But the energy continues on and amplifies the upper pattern. You can expect troughiness in the Central US in 6-10 days after a Pacific Typhoon recurve.

 

Sabol explains it all well:

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-cool-down-next-week-similar-to.html

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Alas, don't forget about the "Typhoon Recurve Rule" and what that means for the central US 6-10 days after Halong turns out to the northeast.

 

It is a very long way from Japan across the Pacific and the intensity is usually tapped out by the time it rolls back across the Pacific. This is not the case however in the late season (Think November) when cold fronts can accelerate systems in the recurve phase and get them here before they are tapped out but that is still pretty rare and unlikely this time of year...

 

The CMC model takes Halong into South Korea with no recurve. Running the GFS right and we'll have to see what that one thinks.

 

Huh???

 

EVERY storm - or the dregs of a dissipated one- recurves at some point. Coriolis+Westerlies...and all that.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/494532312185331712/photo/1

 

You haven't heard of the Rule? Its not like anyone is expecting the storm itself will get back to CONUS somehow. But the energy continues on and amplifies the upper pattern. You can expect troughiness in the Central US in 6-10 days after a Pacific Typhoon recurve.

 

Sabol explains it all well:

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-cool-down-next-week-similar-to.html

 

The remnant energy is of course present after a classified storm recurves but can have little or no realized effect on the down course weather. When Hernan dissipated in the Eastern Pacific a week or so ago the related moisture and energy was evacuated to the Northeast but made little or no difference to the weather across the SW US where most of the energy went. Conversely, in 1982 when hurricane Iwa hit the Hawaiian islands and then recurved, California took a mighty wallop as it merged with a cold front and then quickly marched toward the West Coast. While no longer a tropical system it definitely was one of the most powerful storms of the 1982-3 El Nino season.

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Alas, don't forget about the "Typhoon Recurve Rule" and what that means for the central US 6-10 days after Halong turns out to the northeast.

 

It is a very long way from Japan across the Pacific and the intensity is usually tapped out by the time it rolls back across the Pacific. This is not the case however in the late season (Think November) when cold fronts can accelerate systems in the recurve phase and get them here before they are tapped out but that is still pretty rare and unlikely this time of year...

 

The CMC model takes Halong into South Korea with no recurve. Running the GFS right and we'll have to see what that one thinks.

 

Huh???

 

EVERY storm - or the dregs of a dissipated one- recurves at some point. Coriolis+Westerlies...and all that.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/494532312185331712/photo/1

 

You haven't heard of the Rule? Its not like anyone is expecting the storm itself will get back to CONUS somehow. But the energy continues on and amplifies the upper pattern. You can expect troughiness in the Central US in 6-10 days after a Pacific Typhoon recurve.

 

Sabol explains it all well:

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-cool-down-next-week-similar-to.html

 

The remnant energy is of course present after a classified storm recurves but can have little or no realized effect on the down course weather. When Hernan dissipated in the Eastern Pacific a week or so ago the related moisture and energy was evacuated to the Northeast but made little or no difference to the weather across the SW US where most of the energy went. Conversely, in 1982 when hurricane Iwa hit the Hawaiian islands and then recurved, California took a mighty wallop as it merged with a cold front and then quickly marched toward the West Coast. While no longer a tropical system it definitely was one of the most powerful storms of the 1982-3 El Nino season.

 

Its an established rule of thumb first defined in WWII...

 

And is specific to a typhoon recurve causing a trough to develop in the central US causing cooler temps into the east coast.

 

Saw this happen after Neoguri a few weeks ago.

 

Lets see how dawgish the Dog Days of August will be in the central US and east.

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014_07_01_archive.html

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Alas, don't forget about the "Typhoon Recurve Rule" and what that means for the central US 6-10 days after Halong turns out to the northeast.

 

It is a very long way from Japan across the Pacific and the intensity is usually tapped out by the time it rolls back across the Pacific. This is not the case however in the late season (Think November) when cold fronts can accelerate systems in the recurve phase and get them here before they are tapped out but that is still pretty rare and unlikely this time of year...

 

The CMC model takes Halong into South Korea with no recurve. Running the GFS right and we'll have to see what that one thinks.

 

Huh???

 

EVERY storm - or the dregs of a dissipated one- recurves at some point. Coriolis+Westerlies...and all that.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/494532312185331712/photo/1

 

You haven't heard of the Rule? Its not like anyone is expecting the storm itself will get back to CONUS somehow. But the energy continues on and amplifies the upper pattern. You can expect troughiness in the Central US in 6-10 days after a Pacific Typhoon recurve.

 

Sabol explains it all well:

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-cool-down-next-week-similar-to.html

 

The remnant energy is of course present after a classified storm recurves but can have little or no realized effect on the down course weather. When Hernan dissipated in the Eastern Pacific a week or so ago the related moisture and energy was evacuated to the Northeast but made little or no difference to the weather across the SW US where most of the energy went. Conversely, in 1982 when hurricane Iwa hit the Hawaiian islands and then recurved, California took a mighty wallop as it merged with a cold front and then quickly marched toward the West Coast. While no longer a tropical system it definitely was one of the most powerful storms of the 1982-3 El Nino season.

 

Its an established rule of thumb first defined in WWII...

 

And is specific to a typhoon recurve causing a trough to develop in the central US causing cooler temps into the east coast.

 

Saw this happen after Neoguri a few weeks ago.

 

Lets see how dawgish the Dog Days of August will be in the central US and east.

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014_07_01_archive.html

 

Not very dawgish from what I am seeing. There is another dip in the jet stream coming but while I haven't run the models, the cool snap will be well ahead of the cyclone recurve from what I can see... :-). Have a great weekend and bust out the jacket for the evenings if you are in the upper midwest shortly.

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Not very dawgish from what I am seeing. There is another dip in the jet stream coming but while I haven't run the models, the cool snap will be well ahead of the cyclone recurve from what I can see... :-). Have a great weekend and bust out the jacket for the evenings if you are in the upper midwest shortly.

 

We will see what happens mid month...After this next one...Remember, 6-10 AFTER the recurve....

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/bmoore/research/bmoore/PAPERS/References/ET_HARR.pdf

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.605/pdf

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re: "boiling" ...check out the dramatic upwelling in Lake Michigan this week!!

 

http://blogs.woodtv.com/2014/07/31/lake-michigan-upwelling/

 

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/07/great_lakes_water_temperatures_2.html

 

Oh, and Clean, you can add your headliner on the front page to this thread to the lists of "hundreds of uninformed articles"...

 

ENSO -El Nino- is delayed, an will be weak when it shows...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

Over the last month, no significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the majority of models indicating El Niño onset within June-August and continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 1.4oC). The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter (clickCPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

 

Only thing "boiled" is your bigoted little brain inside that pointy head Clean.

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genevieve-goes-7-31-14_copy_0.jpg

 

 

Nothing atypical for mid summer in the Pacific...

 

Linked it before, but check out the "ACE" numbers...

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

 

Don't get all "Roker-ized"

 

As compared to the last three years you are incorrect. The Pacific is more active this year particularly in the central Pacific.

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genevieve-goes-7-31-14_copy_0.jpg

 

 

Nothing atypical for mid summer in the Pacific...

 

Linked it before, but check out the "ACE" numbers...

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

 

Don't get all "Roker-ized"

 

As compared to the last three years you are incorrect. The Pacific is more active this year particularly in the central Pacific.

 

As compared to overall climo I am.

 

Its an active year...

 

That is not in any way "extreme" (I know you are not framing it that way...dig at the weather channel)...or "abnormal."

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genevieve-goes-7-31-14_copy_0.jpg

 

 

Nothing atypical for mid summer in the Pacific...

 

Linked it before, but check out the "ACE" numbers...

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

 

Don't get all "Roker-ized"

 

As compared to the last three years you are incorrect. The Pacific is more active this year particularly in the central Pacific.

 

As compared to overall climo I am.

 

Its an active year...

 

That is not in any way "extreme" (I know you are not framing it that way...dig at the weather channel)...or "abnormal."

 

You are exactly correct. There were lots of years living in Hawaii where full blown hurricanes were going by us to the south in July...I still think this will be an active year for the islands...Have a great weekend.

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genevieve-goes-7-31-14_copy_0.jpg

 

 

Nothing atypical for mid summer in the Pacific...

 

Linked it before, but check out the "ACE" numbers...

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

 

Don't get all "Roker-ized"

 

As compared to the last three years you are incorrect. The Pacific is more active this year particularly in the central Pacific.

 

As compared to overall climo I am.

 

Its an active year...

 

That is not in any way "extreme" (I know you are not framing it that way...dig at the weather channel)...or "abnormal."

 

You are exactly correct. There were lots of years living in Hawaii where full blown hurricanes were going by us to the south in July...I still think this will be an active year for the islands...Have a great weekend.

 

You too...