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DryArmour

The Boiling Pacific...Getting pretty active. Tropical Wx

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^^^ Yes, it's still a puzzler. GFS has been very consistent with the track. Current intensity forecast is >50 knots at landfall and it has been increasing over the last few runs. If it gets as close to the Big Island as forecast the interaction with the mountains will be significant. However it works out will be interesting. I'm hopeful it wont involve a lot of airborne solar panels and the like here in the Islands.

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Bump.

 

Hawaiians should be keeping an eye on Iselle and thinking about preparedness.

 

And, models show a second, perhaps even stronger storm building close behind Iselle also tracking over the islands. The models are in good agreement on the tracks and have been somewhat under estimating the strength of Iselle. GFS shows Iselle as a tropical storm when it reaches the islands. Other models and forecasts vary. On the high end GDFL shows H1 strength at landfall. The current NOAA call is for 55 knots at +96 hours (close to landfall).

 

That said, it's weather forecasting. Expect errors. There is a lot of uncertainty. Maybe more uncertainty than usual as this isn't a typical pattern. These are tight systems so even though the models are in good agreement on the tracks even small changes in track will have big effects on how much wind and rain the systems bring to the islands.

 

143517W5_NL_sm.gif

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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

 

It hasn't been particularly steady, but Iselle continues on a
gradual strengthening trend. The eye has cleared out in infrared
satellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become a little
more symmetric. Dvorak estimates are now T5.5/102 kt from SAB,
T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, and near 110 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.
Therefore, the maximum winds are set at 100 kt as a blend of these
numbers, making Iselle a major hurricane.

 

The intensity forecast has been complicated. Iselle continues to
push through the peak intensities shown in previous model cycles,
so apparently the environment has been a little more favorable than
expected. Vertical shear has decreased since yesterday, but still
the latest model runs do not show any additional intensification,
presumably because the thermodynamic environment is becoming more
marginal. The NHC forecast maintains Iselle at 100 kt for the next
12 hours and then only gradually weakens it through 48 hours, but
given the hurricane's history, I can't rule out some additional
strengthening in the short term. Interestingly, the statistical
models are stronger than the dynamical models during the first 48
hours, but the scenario flip-flops on days 3 through 5 with the
dynamical models maintaining a stronger cyclone as Iselle
approaches the Hawaiian Islands. For now, the NHC forecast closely
follows the intensity consensus ICON and is unchanged from the
previous advisory beyond 48 hours.

 

The initial motion is 280/9 kt. Ridging to the north of Iselle is
expected to maintain a westward heading for the next 3 days, but
the forward motion will decrease in about 36 hours as that ridge
weakens. After day 3, Iselle is forecast to turn west-
northwestward and accelerate when a mid-level high develops halfway
between Hawaii and California. The track models are in good
agreement for the entire forecast period, but as mentioned in the
previous advisory, a slight northward adjustment was needed in the
official forecast on days 4 and 5 to account for recent model
trends.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.5N 132.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.6N 134.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 136.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.7N 137.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.8N 139.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 16.5N 143.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

ep0914.gif

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There is good news and bad news if Iselle decides to cross dress and become a donut (annular hurricane). The good news is that annular hurricanes tend to be much smaller than traditional spiral banded storms. The destructive wind field is usually rather small relative to normal hurricanes of similar intensity. The bad news is that we have less skill in predicting the long term viability of these storm and there is less skill in track predictability. Annular systems care little about dry air in the surrounding environment and don't always go where the models say they will. With this in mind people in the Aloha state should probably hit Safeway markets sooner rather than later and pick up the common sense items that are non perishable. Bottled water doesn't go bad for a long time and you cane drink it for the next few months on trips to the beach if Iselle has little or no effect on the islands. Cash and canned foods are also nice to have on hand. A full tank of gas on Thursday and the furniture off the lanai (Patio for you mainland folks) with trash cans and loose palm fronds put out of the wind if possible. If you live near the coast then you should identify structures that are well inland and preferably made of steel reinforced concrete. Even if things don't get ugly it is good to have those supplies on hand for future hurricanes, earthquakes or tsunamis. If you stay ready....you don't have to "Get Ready".

 

For the tourists, if things are getting sketchy, contact the hotel manager a day ahead of time and get the emergency cyclone plan. Ask about food, water etc and where you should be in the hotel in the event the hurricane is looking potent. Do not wait until the morning you hear the civil defense sirens go off and the hotel manager is trying to secure and prepare the property for the event. Remember, cash is king and Credit Card machines don't work when the power goes out. Many parts of the island of Kauai were without power for months after Iniki rolled through (That was a category 4/5 hurricane, this is not likely to be anywhere ear that strong. Get your outdoor fun activities out of the way early this week because even if Iselle rolls through as a tropical storm, boats won't be going out and snrokeling and scuba diving won't be fun in murky water when the waves comes up and the rains come down.

Central Pacific 08032014 0600PDT.jpg

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Thanks, Mark. My wife's currently staying with friends near Hawi on the North tip of the Big Island. I've passed on your excellent advice and she's getting prepared. Fingers x-ed.

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Thanks Mark. Good stuff.

 

Maybe if the prognosis is similar tomorrow you might want to start another thread with a more specific tittle to get the attention of the Hawaiians who may have tuned out of this one?

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Looking possible that Iselle may be going annular from latest reports. In which case, HI needs to pay attention to this one. And Julio is cooking along right behind her... Ugh...

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Thanks Mark. Good stuff.

 

Maybe if the prognosis is similar tomorrow you might want to start another thread with a more specific tittle to get the attention of the Hawaiians who may have tuned out of this one?

 

I will definitely do that particularly since the timeline has been advanced a little bit and interaction with the islands may happen a little earlier than previously forecast.

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At 2PM HST Iselle is 1200 miles ESE of the Big Island of Hawaii and tracking west at 12 mph. The symmetry of the storm has improved. The cold cloud top diameter has increased and I would say that the hurricane has strengthened if anything. Relaxed shear but a less intense thermodynamic environment should mean the hurricane will either maintain its intensity or start to slowly wind down a bit (At least that is what all of the models say). Annular hurricanes can defy the normal rules for track and intensity though so I wouldn't bet the farm on any of the current forecasts just yet. With so much pavement still between Hawaii and the storm and a relatively mild forward pace (At least for now) there is time to wait, watch and think about the potential effects it may have on Hawaii between now and Thursday.

 

The system winding up behind Iselle is also forecast to move in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands next week. Stay tuned people.

 

ep201409_sat.jpg

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Overnight Iselle has improved her structure and cloud tops have cooled. There is still some debate over whether Iselle has formed into an annular hurricane but in my mind there really isn't much to debate. The shape is symmetrical, there is no real banding outside of the tightly wrapped core of cold cloud tops and dry air does not appear to be making much of a difference to this storm as it pushes through the dry environment surrounding it.

 

The new shift to the north in the model consensus is good news for Hawaii as there is a finger of significantly cooler water in the path as the system approaches the Big Island of Hawaii. A forecast of increased shear should also impact the tenacity of this hurricane but as mentioned before, annular storms can often defy the models and maintain a robust internal structure despite environmental conditions that might normal cause weakening or dramatic weakening on a traditional hurricane. My fingers are crossed that once again Pele is watching over the islands and her people and will cause the system to substantially unwind before going over the islands later this week.

Iselle Aug 4, 2014 0228HST.jpg

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Weekend SUCKED (DAGO SUCKS)

 

Perfect Today !!!!!!

 

Don't Move here !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Guest multitranslation

make no mistake about it, these events are all engineered, inside and out, actually at this point, the weather on the entire planet is completely artificial.

 

but don't take my word for it, do your own research. time to wake up sheeple people of the world!

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How does this summer compare to say 1992? That was a very active year, too, right?

 

You have a great memory. There were 30 named storms in 1992 in the Eastern/Central Pacific. There was on additional depression that never quite made it through adolescence.

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GFS is now putting Julio closer to the islands on some runs though the consensus has moved back N a bit, and NHC has identified Julio as an annular storm.

 

With few outer bands and a symmetric structure around the eye,Julio now appears to have become an annular hurricane, much likeIselle in the same general area a few days ago.  While guidanceis generally showing a steady or quick weakening, these hurricanesare known to be more resilent to marginal environments than most.Since little change is expected to the SSTs or shear for the nextday or so, it makes sense to go above the model guidance at thattime with the current annular structure, and the NHC prediction israised from the previous one. 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/080247.shtml?

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Although looking to miss the islands well to the N, the models are a bit divergent after Sunday. The southern outliers still bring Julio close to the state.

 

ep201410_ensmodel.gif

 

ep201410_model.gif

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Er....the end of the red track is pointing at the Salish Sea? I assume that's along, along way away.

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^^^ Yes. very long range Julio is supposed to hook up with a low on the normal storm route that will go up and around the Pacific High. The dots are 12 hour intervals.

 

I just linked WU's graphics. They update when the browser loads the page. I notice that they've lost the ensemble now. Its scatter was mostly to the S of the single GFS line that it is showing now.

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^^^ Yes. very long range Julio is supposed to hook up with a low on the normal storm route that will go up and around the Pacific High. The dots are 12 hour intervals.

Thank you. But that's what I thought. And thanks for the fact the dots are 12 hour otherwise we'd be at Labor day or so.

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Rescue underway for sailboat caught in Hurricane Julio

 

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2221730/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+uscgnews%2FURhB+%28New+Releases%29

 

Sailing vessel Walkabout is disabled and taking on water with three people aboard. On-scene conditions are reported as 92 to 115 mph winds with 30-foot seas. One of the hatches has blown away and onboard bilge pumps are unable to keep up with the flooding. The vessel's life raft has also been blown overboard.

 

At 7:15 a.m., watchstanders at the Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu received notification from the International Emergency Response Coordination Center in Texas that an alert message was received from Walkabout requesting Coast Guard assistance.

JRCC diverted an airplane from the National Hurricane Center, Teal 76, from inside Hurricane Julio to locate the vessel and establish VHF radio communications.

At 10:49 a.m., Teal 76 reported Mayday calls being broadcast from Walkabout.

An HC-130 Hercules airplane crew launched from Air Station Barbers Point at 11:10 a.m. to deliver a life raft and relieve Teal 76.

The 661-foot container ship Manukai diverted and is enroute to the location of the sailboat.

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Rescue underway for sailboat caught in Hurricane Julio

 

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2221730/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+uscgnews%2FURhB+%28New+Releases%29

 

Sailing vessel Walkabout is disabled and taking on water with three people aboard. On-scene conditions are reported as 92 to 115 mph winds with 30-foot seas. One of the hatches has blown away and onboard bilge pumps are unable to keep up with the flooding. The vessel's life raft has also been blown overboard.

 

At 7:15 a.m., watchstanders at the Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu received notification from the International Emergency Response Coordination Center in Texas that an alert message was received from Walkabout requesting Coast Guard assistance.

JRCC diverted an airplane from the National Hurricane Center, Teal 76, from inside Hurricane Julio to locate the vessel and establish VHF radio communications.

At 10:49 a.m., Teal 76 reported Mayday calls being broadcast from Walkabout.

An HC-130 Hercules airplane crew launched from Air Station Barbers Point at 11:10 a.m. to deliver a life raft and relieve Teal 76.

The 661-foot container ship Manukai diverted and is enroute to the location of the sailboat.

450x300_q75.jpg

 

USCG Photo. Something like 414NM NE of Oahu.

 

Anybody know the boat?

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GFS has the next wave producing lows that track close to Hawaii next week. Much to early to believe in any specific way, of course. Just a hint at the possible shape of things.

 

post-41116-0-80958800-1407870850_thumb.png

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Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

......please keep us informed!

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X2. As new systems are being born

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Nice, should make for some interesting excavation work next week.

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Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

....you're referring to TS '11E'...or something else?

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Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

....you're referring to TS '11E'...or something else?

 

You mean Tropical Storm Karina?

 

While we are on the subject...Julio is one crazy hurricane. Hundreds of miles north of Hawaii and still cranking along. That is definitely not normal...

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Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

....you're referring to TS '11E'...or something else?

 

You mean Tropical Storm Karina?

 

While we are on the subject...Julio is one crazy hurricane. Hundreds of miles north of Hawaii and still cranking along. That is definitely not normal...

.

....un-named when I got the information.... any update?

 

 

Tropical Storm 11 E......... Looks like the tenth named storm of the eastern Pacific is getting ready to go public; should gain strength and power for a named storm, and yet again, set to sail due west from the Generator area. Should send surf and wave north, but Baja is dodging bullets

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Rescue underway for sailboat caught in Hurricane Julio

 

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2221730/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+uscgnews%2FURhB+%28New+Releases%29

 

Sailing vessel Walkabout is disabled and taking on water with three people aboard. On-scene conditions are reported as 92 to 115 mph winds with 30-foot seas. One of the hatches has blown away and onboard bilge pumps are unable to keep up with the flooding. The vessel's life raft has also been blown overboard.

 

At 7:15 a.m., watchstanders at the Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu received notification from the International Emergency Response Coordination Center in Texas that an alert message was received from Walkabout requesting Coast Guard assistance.

JRCC diverted an airplane from the National Hurricane Center, Teal 76, from inside Hurricane Julio to locate the vessel and establish VHF radio communications.

At 10:49 a.m., Teal 76 reported Mayday calls being broadcast from Walkabout.

An HC-130 Hercules airplane crew launched from Air Station Barbers Point at 11:10 a.m. to deliver a life raft and relieve Teal 76.

The 661-foot container ship Manukai diverted and is enroute to the location of the sailboat.

450x300_q75.jpg

 

USCG Photo. Something like 414NM NE of Oahu.

 

Anybody know the boat?

see the thread titled "42 Sailboat foundering off Hawaii" over in Crusing Anarchy. Same boat name.

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Generator got here today about two hours after we got power. Still plenty of people here without. Plenty of batteries sent by family too. So we are all set for karina or whoever is next.

 

Thanks guys for keeping us informed on what is happening out there. You do a much better job than the mainstream media, which I can't see on tv yet.

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Generator got here today about two hours after we got power. Still plenty of people here without. Plenty of batteries sent by family too. So we are all set for karina or whoever is next.

 

Thanks guys for keeping us informed on what is happening out there. You do a much better job than the mainstream media, which I can't see on tv yet.

 

Where are you located exactly? Will keep an eye on future systems and update here where you can actually see it when the power is out.

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A major storm predicted next week e-pac. Fine, large surf/swell, Baja, and CA.

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A major storm predicted next week e-pac. Fine, large surf/swell, Baja, and CA.

 

JHC- The models have been back and forth on that one but would love for SO CAL to see a little rain from some of these. Most of the reliable models are calling for possible scattered showers here later this week if the current depression makes it up the hill generally intact. On Thursday into Friday winds may turn SE or South in the So Cal coastal waters in response to a cyclone passing by tot he west of the area. Way too early to know whether that is really going to happen.

 

On the very long range maps there appears to be a cyclone trying to form and make its way up the gulf of California. I would put the chances of that affecting the local area at about 5% right now as long range maps tend to be way off and even overly hopeful when it comes to generating these types of systems this far out.

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Hi Dry,

 

I'm in Pahoa in Hawaiin Beaches. About mile and a half inland from the ocean. You can look down our street and see the ocean from the front yard. The eye of Iselle went right over us. Weird when all the wind and rain stopped for a bit....then started with a vengeance.

 

thanks again for all your input and info, I'm learning a lot about these weather systems as I'm used to watching what is coming down from the Gulf of Alaska.

 

Gary

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On the very long range maps there appears to be a cyclone trying to form and make its way up the gulf of California. I would put the chances of that affecting the local area at about 5% right now as long range maps tend to be way off and even overly hopeful when it comes to generating these types of systems this far out.

 

Way, way, way out beyond the skill of GFS but it has been pretty consistently trying to do something along these lines:

 

 

post-41116-0-11429100-1408389026_thumb.png

 

Forming around the 23 and moving NNW towards Baja.

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On the very long range maps there appears to be a cyclone trying to form and make its way up the gulf of California. I would put the chances of that affecting the local area at about 5% right now as long range maps tend to be way off and even overly hopeful when it comes to generating these types of systems this far out.

 

Way, way, way out beyond the skill of GFS but it has been pretty consistently trying to do something along these lines:

 

 

attachicon.gifgfsbaja0818.png

 

Forming around the 23 and moving NNW towards Baja.

 

I saw a version this morning that came up the gulf of California which has happened before. I am not buying shares in Home Depot SoCal just yet though...

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I saw a version this morning that came up the gulf of California which has happened before. I am not buying shares in Home Depot SoCal just yet though...

.

 

...yikes!! ...please keep us posted on happenings around Baja....

Cortez is not part of the Pacific I know,,,but definitely not 'outside the environment' either!! :unsure:

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Currently a tropical storm, Marie will ramp to a major hurricane next week and march northwestward at a solid clip. One look at the Eastern/Central Pacific map and you know this is one of the most active seasons in more than two decades. More to come...

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You don't often see this picture. Three on the go at the same time. Karina, Lowell and Marie.

 

two_pac_2d0.png

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You don't often see this picture. Three on the go at the same time. Karina, Lowell and Marie.

 

two_pac_2d0.png

 

and Marie is looking like it might be a nasty one...At least for the fish...

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.

...fish indeed.....and a Rimouse......

 

 

Rimas Meleshyus
Fri Aug 22 2014
10:24 AM
The sea is rough
Heading: SE
Lat: 32.253110
Lon: -131.246500

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Tomorrow, wednesday evening we will see the first of marie's swell, in ca.

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For interests in Mexico, particularly Baja, long range GFS shows the next tropical low crossing the Baja and heading to the mainland kinda bay of La ~ San Carlos. Very far out in forecast time but worth watching.

 

post-41116-0-57922100-1409595508_thumb.png

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For interests in Mexico, particularly Baja, long range GFS shows the next tropical low crossing the Baja and heading to the mainland kinda bay of La ~ San Carlos. Very far out in forecast time but worth watching.

 

attachicon.gifbajaWX01.png

.

.....fawk--I really hope this prediction is -very- inaccurate....let alone wind damage,,,there's a bunch of new water 'diversions' uphill from Mulege,,on the Lee side of baja pretty much where the arrow's going---I'd really hope that there's a milder hydo-test of those diversions before a full on blaster goes through .

 

...please keep me posted...I pass this inf along to interests on Baja

 

.

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For interests in Mexico, particularly Baja, long range GFS shows the next tropical low crossing the Baja and heading to the mainland kinda bay of La ~ San Carlos. Very far out in forecast time but worth watching.

 

attachicon.gifbajaWX01.png

.

.....fawk--I really hope this prediction is -very- inaccurate....let alone wind damage,,,there's a bunch of new water 'diversions' uphill from Mulege,,on the Lee side of baja pretty much where the arrow's going---I'd really hope that there's a milder hydo-test of those diversions before a full on blaster goes through .

 

...please keep me posted...I pass this inf along to interests on Baja

 

.

Yeah, I hope it doesn't do anything either. It is much too early to take as a prediction. It's more of a hint. The arrow is just my sketch of where that run had things going. I expect a lot of run to run variance until the storm really spins up. I just mentioned it as an early heads up of a possibility.

 

I have been through a hurricane in that area on my boat. Damage on land was as much from mud slides as wind.

 

I'm happy to read the weather models and post the charts if they look concerning. I can't add much expertise beyond that. Dryarmor is the tropcial wx pro here.

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.

....well,,ummm,,,I'm glad that's your own arrow,,,,gives a bit more hope already :mellow:..I take it there's some models show that projection?

 

..you were in the sea of Cortez for a 'caine?...which,where?,wow! :huh:

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^^^ Yes, GFS showed that course. The arrow is as close as I could get to the predicted centers. It seemed too difficult to put together an animated gif so I drew the arrow to give an idea of the track. The run information is at the top of the pic. GFS projects out two weeks into the future. It is not reliable out that far. But, it is a possibility that I think it worth keeping an eye on.

 

Jimena was the hurricane that we were closest to when we were cruising the sea.

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...sounds like it's the remains of Jimena I saw in Mulege in ~2011--caused quite a change from times gone by. :mellow:

 

...as a favorite Baja location,,,I've looked into the drainage situation there--specifically what happens with major precipitation?

.......there's a huge drainage which has only one place to go--through the quaint little creek/river which the town's built around. There's recently been some 'diversions' built-basically dirt burms that will divert major flow away from agriculture areas and somehow 'help absorption' and 'slow the flow'......I'm concerned that any form of blocking ,slowing,and diverting could actually compound damage in certain circumstances.....there's been no test-events yet.

 

...please keep me informed,thanks

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Norbert. winds 35. Steering 12 and crawling NNE. Warm to very warm waters and moderate shear and the more reliable models are all saying NO HURRICANE. Hmmm. Will have to look into this more carefully in 35 minutes when I get out of this production meeting.

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^^^ GFS is now steering this one off to the West away from land. Lowest central pressure about 997. Very different look than yesterday. Better too for interests on land.

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^^^ GFS is now steering this one off to the West away from land. Lowest central pressure about 997. Very different look than yesterday. Better too for interests on land.

 

I do believe you will see that track and intensity amended to the right and upwards as we wind through today...

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^^^Good call. The current run has increased the intensity and has moved to the right again. More worrying for the Baja. Particularly the S end. Shows it bringing rain to SD around the 9th for whatever that's worth... Again a big run to run change.

 

174456W5_NL_sm.gif

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Lots of rain for the Southwest coming up...

 

All that "boiling" out in the Pacific is turning out to have some positive benefits.

 

(And some early Fall to the Rockies too looks like!!!)

 

Will bump this missive from last week before the usual Sharknado warners come out of the wood work.

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/28/bastardi-warm-water-brings-potential-for-east-pacific-hurricanes/

 

Joe D’Aleo and I have noted that one of the analogs showing up is 1976 with the type of ENSO coming on. In fact, with Tom Downs analogs thrown in, for winter, 76-77 got ranked 2nd as of Aug 10. We look each month and update. But that was one heck of a year for Mexican tropical cyclone hits. We were saying back in spring, the interior southwest was going to get wet as this pattern evolved and it has, right in the heart of the perma-drought area and back west. But the September-Oct rain idea was because we have felt the SE pac would be the site of recurring tropical cyclones that can hit

Mexico and dump a lot of rain.

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Rachel is winding down. But Simon seems to be winding up. Interesting season!

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It is the transitional period of the hurricane season (First ten days of October) and you will see pretty big shifts in intensity and tracks as the models try and sort out the High pressure intensities for steering and the shear change both up and down. SSTs are pretty consistent.

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^^^GFS has been a bit behind on the development so far. NOAA are now mooting the idea that it may rapidly intensify. From the discussion:

 

 An alternative forecastscenario is that rapid intensification begins in the next 12-24hours, with Simon becoming significantly stronger than forecast.This scenario is supported by above average probabilities in theRapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model, and by the TRMMdata, which suggests Simon is developing a small inner core.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/022100.shtml?

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Structurally Simon is a bit of a mess at the moment. There is visible CDO but the banding is not symmetric nor very well attached. The shear is low and there is plenty of energy available to tap in the 36 hour window. Cloud tops are pretty cold but until Simon gets an eye I don't think we will see any massive ramp ups. All of the reliable models forecast a pretty tight fishhook to the right after 36-48 hours which will take Simon back over warmer water on final approach to the Baja peninsula.

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Just to bump, Simon has gotten a good deal better organized and GFS still has it making landfall on the Baja around the 7th utc.

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Just to bump, Simon has gotten a good deal better organized and GFS still has it making landfall on the Baja around the 7th utc.

.

.....wow,,,there's little of Baja that isn't getting completely strafed this year :o

 

...here's an account of Odile--worth a read..........

 

 

Todos Santos experience of Odile

After spending the day trying to let as many locals know that hurricane Odile was a serious and dangerous hurricane (as opposed to radio reports that it was going to be a rain event), I had to run to La Paz to rescue a friend arriving from Tijuana. I picked him up at around 7pm and returned to my place at around 8pm.

 

I am responsible for 4 properties as well as my own. I called the people in my house and recommended that they leave it for the night as the additional part of my house is wood with aluminum roofing. Sadly none of that part survived the hurricane. I lost my kitchen, living room and dining room. My bedroom and bathroom will survive.

 

I spent the night in a 3 story house 1 block from the beach with 3 dogs inside in the Las Tunas area of Todos Santos.

 

I had the hurricane screens installed earlier but could not get to all of the windows. One of those blew out early in the storm. The main screen which protects the pool deck blew out about half way through the storm. Water was pouring in from under the upstairs door to a deck all the way down the stairwell and was like a waterfall.

 

I had 135 mph winds screaming through the house as it shook under the onslaught of wind, sand and dirt from 2 very large planter plots which broke. The 2 outside lights were found in the pool a few days later. The pool was full of dirt, sand and palm fronds. It had to be drained.

 

I was supremely scared as the bed shook in the basement. The entire house was being assaulted from within and without. I was terrified of trying to go up the stairs to see the damage being done.

 

In the early hours, about 3 am, I actually knelt and prayed, begging for the wind to abate. I hear from many others that they did the same at various times of the night and early morning. The wind was horrendous - the noise like a thousand ghosts in the house.

 

I did sleep for about maybe an hour. I was beyond exhausted.

 

In the morning as the sun rose I was up with a flashlight and trying to see the damage. The wind was still up but not as bad. I was shocked at every turn of the flashlight.

 

The main floor hurricane screen was gone, one of the huge picture windows had exploded and most of the kitchen cabinets were open. I was shocked at the amount of mud and sand in the house on the floor, the walls and the roof.

 

Then as I looked outside I saw that the perimeter fence was knocked down, a new wall just installed was history, many of the palm trees were destroyed. The front gate was open but turned out to be okay.

 

I HAD to get to one of the other properties I am responsible for as well as my house. THAT was a trip! Most of the electrical poles were down and it was a trip of dodging lines and poles, driving under, over and around downed lines. It seemed like everyone was trying to get to downtown but the callejon was flooded (Topete). I actually tried to drive through that and after pulling out a Toyota 4wd truck, I decided that I did not want to go that way. I eventually found a way to the highway north of town. I was beyond heartbroken to see my house. I do have my bedroom and bathroom but I lost everything else. UGG!!

 

I had lots of damage at the other property I am responsible for.

 

I am EXTREMELY PROUD of the Mexican government for stepping up and getting our electricity up and running so soon. It seemed that at literally every corner there was a CFE truck. They worked through the day and night and did not give up until we had our electricity, whether from 18wheelers with generators or back online, they were our heroes.

 

We still have lines down and poles down but we are getting there. Today there were lots of Marinos working to help clean up our streets. We lost so many trees!! So many locals lost everything. I mean everything. I know of several who have nothing left. A single mother with 2 children lost everything. She is so humble. She is an amazing woman. She lived in a trailer which was literally flipped over - her and her children left the trailer just before it flipped, crawling in the mud, rain and wind to get to her mothers house close by. I don't know how they made it. The kids are traumatized but they are okay. I hear of so many who lost so much. I feel for them.

 

Odile, no matter how much trouble you have trying to say the name, will go down in history here.

 

We will survive. We're a tough lot here.

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Just to bump, Simon has gotten a good deal better organized and GFS still has it making landfall on the Baja around the 7th utc.

 

Goddammit but don't EVER f'ng do that again. It's Baja. Plain & simple. Baja. No 'The'. Just Baja. As in Baja.

 

Gottit?....

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^^^ Sorry about that. Right now Simon is facing some sheer which is good news for the peninsula.

 

 

I apologize for sounding like a bitch, but I have just three pet peeves in life. 'The' Baja, 'The' PCH and chicks with hyphenated last names.....

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While there doesn't appear to be anything new on the horizon for the eastern Pacific, the conditions remain ripe for more activity over the next several weeks. The much warmer than normal water off the coast of Baja and SO CAL remain a pathway should a major hurricane make its way north. Most systems this year have been relatively slow movers and once they reach the waters off central Baja they are rapidly dissipating.

 

The North pacific storm season appears to be getting underway and the possibility remains of a tropical system getting swept up into a cold front as we push later into the Fall season. Is it likely? No, Possible, yes. I really could use some actual weather right about now. We have had nine days of rain over the last 12 months and four of those days were "trace" amounts. Come on mother nature, send some weather my way.

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Nice rgb of Simon's top and bottom parting ways. IME, NOAA tends to track the upper bits. Even so, both bits are signficant weather.

 

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Anyone following the bomb lining up on japan?

 

not much about it on the domestic sites, but i heard central low pressures in the 850mb range!

 

yikes!

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Anyone following the bomb lining up on japan?

 

not much about it on the domestic sites, but i heard central low pressures in the 850mb range!

 

yikes!

.

...biggest storm on the planet this year :mellow:

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