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Edith Bicknell

Newport -Bermuda 2016

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12ZGFS is a completely different race...

 

instead of being all easterlies and southeriles.., it's now westerlies - still a slow race, for small- midsized boats though

 

12Z euro is later than the GFS, so we'll see what that says

 

i guess i have to amend my earlier comment about the differences between runs of the same model - this is an unusual difference between runs for 4-5 days out

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Red lines are grid based, Blue are isochronal based. It is for a particular type of boat. If there is one thing I'm learning in prepping for the race, the models change faster than a bi-polar personality on crack.

the different models are varying by more than usual right now

 

run to run for a particular model is varying too, maybe a bit more than usual

 

the different models will probably converge quite a lot by the start - to either a euro solution, a gfs solution, or somewhere in between, but i think in between is not so likely this time. most meteorologists - including those at OPC - have been thinking the gfs forecast is most likely to be correct, although just today their confidence has been wavering.

 

if the euro validates.., the RC will have to make a very tough call

 

even if the 6z gfs is right it will be a tough race for some boats

 

no matter which one ends up being right.., i guarantee that the very last thing you will be thinking about on this race is the difference between isochronal and grid routing.

 

that route you have posted probably has you crossing the gulf stream with 25-30kts of E wind against 4kts of current - that's some serious shit

 

Do these seem to be the conditions that will favor a mini?

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Red lines are grid based, Blue are isochronal based. It is for a particular type of boat. If there is one thing I'm learning in prepping for the race, the models change faster than a bi-polar personality on crack.

the different models are varying by more than usual right now

 

run to run for a particular model is varying too, maybe a bit more than usual

 

the different models will probably converge quite a lot by the start - to either a euro solution, a gfs solution, or somewhere in between, but i think in between is not so likely this time. most meteorologists - including those at OPC - have been thinking the gfs forecast is most likely to be correct, although just today their confidence has been wavering.

 

if the euro validates.., the RC will have to make a very tough call

 

even if the 6z gfs is right it will be a tough race for some boats

 

no matter which one ends up being right.., i guarantee that the very last thing you will be thinking about on this race is the difference between isochronal and grid routing.

 

that route you have posted probably has you crossing the gulf stream with 25-30kts of E wind against 4kts of current - that's some serious shit

 

Do these seem to be the conditions that will favor a mini?

 

Err, No!

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So Sunday on the ocean between Newport and Bermuda should be fun if the PredictWind interpretation of the Canadian weather model holds true. Looks like CMC (and PWC) is consistent with ECMWF in the sense that both show a low developing off of South Carolina and moving up the coast. According to Ken Read though, the European model is showing 40-50 knots. CMC and PWC are not showing that much. Again, here's hoping that the North American models prevail.

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So Sunday on the ocean between Newport and Bermuda should be fun if the PredictWind interpretation of the Canadian weather model holds true. Looks like CMC (and PWC) is consistent with ECMWF in the sense that both show a low developing off of South Carolina and moving up the coast. According to Ken Read though, the European model is showing 40-50 knots. CMC and PWC are not showing that much. Again, here's hoping that the North American models prevail.

What does our resident weatherman and tee shirt salesman DryArmour have to say?

 

Hey, didnt Mr Clean say the Commanche program was disbanding this Spring?

Is Ken Read sailing on Abilyn?

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I'm almost certain Josh asked him.

Ken Read will do anything to be a partner of Abilyn. He's a whore.

.

But Stan Honey declined.

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So Sunday on the ocean between Newport and Bermuda should be fun if the PredictWind interpretation of the Canadian weather model holds true. Looks like CMC (and PWC) is consistent with ECMWF in the sense that both show a low developing off of South Carolina and moving up the coast. According to Ken Read though, the European model is showing 40-50 knots. CMC and PWC are not showing that much. Again, here's hoping that the North American models prevail.

 

Do you have a citation for the Ken Read quote?

 

Not that I disbelieve you, but I'd be interested to hear (see) KR's full thoughts on the matter.

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if the 12Z euro turns out to be correct.., they will have trouble starting the race...

 

it looks a lot like a sub-tropical storm - a storm that begins as an extratropical storm and then evolves to have more tropical characteristics. A subtropical storm can certainly become a full tropical storm - the euro forecasts this one to have sustained winds well in excess of 33kts, which is the threshold for a tropical storm. The 12Z euro seemed to have no fronts associated with it so it looks quasi-tropical, but it won't really be a tropical storm unless it develops a warm core and other tropical features

 

the 12Z is slower to develop the storm than the 0Z was.., but it still ends up right over the rhumb line

 

fortunately, NOAA is favoring the GFS, and it seems like nobody is really favoring the euro...

 

that being said, the newest GFS looks like a pretty slow race...

 

here is a screen shot of the euro

 

post-290-0-76352700-1465956243_thumb.png

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What is the best way to download the euro forecast and load into expedition.

if the 12Z euro turns out to be correct.., they will have trouble starting the race...

 

it looks a lot like a sub-tropical storm - a storm that begins as an extratropical storm and then evolves to have more tropical characteristics. A subtropical storm can certainly become a full tropical storm - the euro forecasts this one to have sustained winds well in excess of 33kts, which is the threshold for a tropical storm. The 12Z euro seemed to have no fronts associated with it so it looks quasi-tropical, but it won't really be a tropical storm unless it develops a warm core and other tropical features

 

the 12Z is slower to develop the storm than the 0Z was.., but it still ends up right over the rhumb line

 

fortunately, NOAA is favoring the GFS, and it seems like nobody is really favoring the euro...

 

that being said, the newest GFS looks like a pretty slow race...

 

here is a screen shot of the euro

 

attachicon.gif12ZEURO.png

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What is the best way to download the euro forecast and load into expedition.

if the 12Z euro turns out to be correct.., they will have trouble starting the race...

 

it looks a lot like a sub-tropical storm - a storm that begins as an extratropical storm and then evolves to have more tropical characteristics. A subtropical storm can certainly become a full tropical storm - the euro forecasts this one to have sustained winds well in excess of 33kts, which is the threshold for a tropical storm. The 12Z euro seemed to have no fronts associated with it so it looks quasi-tropical, but it won't really be a tropical storm unless it develops a warm core and other tropical features

 

the 12Z is slower to develop the storm than the 0Z was.., but it still ends up right over the rhumb line

 

fortunately, NOAA is favoring the GFS, and it seems like nobody is really favoring the euro...

 

that being said, the newest GFS looks like a pretty slow race...

 

here is a screen shot of the euro

 

attachicon.gif12ZEURO.png

RTFM

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It looks like the big stuff will be south of the fleet.

 

With every model, Expedition shows a swing right of the rhumb line, with a blast reacher on port running at 60*-70* apparent with a cold, wet, miserable crew hiking hard on the rail almost the entire way.

 

Skippers will be feeding their rail meat rums in an apologetic and grateful manner before lunch on Monday. IMO, that beats a daily becalming any day.

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Lets try this again with the correct time stamps!

 

The Predict Wind's CMC and Exp's GFS model are fairly consistent. The Euro seems to be the outlier at the moment, but certainly cannot be ignored. However, it is possible that the split high pressure to the will stop any strong development of the sub tropical low pressure.

 

 

post-354-0-43004600-1465992244_thumb.jpg

post-354-0-94736900-1465992253_thumb.jpg

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Looks like a big boat year. Makings of a good fast race. You navigator types will be busy for the next 36 hours.

Remember it is four races in one. Race to the stream, stream cross, blue water sailing and the last 100 miles. Try and win each leg and you will fair well. All too many lose focus just south of the stream and don't dial back in until it is too late to recover.

Grab some good rest. Sail fast, sail safe and don't fall into the trap of being hung over for the start!

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I keep staring at the models and the pockets of zero wind growing off Newport at the start of the race, and Monday/Tues off Bermuda. God i hate floating in circles. I'll take wet and rain the whole race as long as I'm making serious progress towards Bermuda.

 

the worst is floating in circles when you can actually SEE bermuda. not cool.

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the worst is floating in circles when you can actually SEE bermuda. not cool.

 

 

Did that for hours in 2012 after all of the bigger boats had arrived with personal record times. I recall staring straight down at individual rocks through the clear water to figure out whether or not we were moving (and there where a couple hours where the answer was no). But I suppose it's still better than being at work back home.

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I keep staring at the models and the pockets of zero wind growing off Newport at the start of the race, and Monday/Tues off Bermuda. God i hate floating in circles. I'll take wet and rain the whole race as long as I'm making serious progress towards Bermuda.

 

the worst is floating in circles when you can actually SEE bermuda. not cool.

See Bermuda? 2014 we could practically hear people talking on the beach for about 10 hours.

People were seriously considered dropping out after sailing 630 miles and only 5 more to go.

Worst part was being in cell phone range. 'Yes honey I know I said this morning we would be in

for dinner but it dosn't look like that's gonna happen now'

'Jesus does that cruise ship see us?

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2014 sucked at the end. I'm hoping for another 2012. BRING IT.

2012 was no winner at the end either.....

 

 

Cheers,

Jim

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2014 sucked at the end. I'm hoping for another 2012. BRING IT.

2012 was no winner at the end either.....

 

 

Cheers,

Jim

 

 

 

It was a very fast year for most of St. David's. Then it fell apart for the slowest class of St. David's (including us), as well as nearly all of Cruising Class.

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Lets see the wind chart for Sunday - Monday, it's more exciting!

I'm getting worried... who else is?

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Interesting Stream patterns this year.

 

ncomhrCurrWatlGS.png

Looks fairly classic to me. Small boats, stream mostly irrelevant, just a matter of letting it push you east some as you look for the exit to set up for that eddie. Big CE with the play being how close to the core do you sail to shave distance or work the west of it for better push. Doesn't appear to be many mines south of that CE, but ya never know. Go west young man but remember you have to get back east at some point and seems you will be trying to do so in a big knock. Tack on the shift

Big boats probably ignore cold eddie, stay east I would imagine. Curious stuff.

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The latest article on the race website references the withdrawal and suggest's it's due to the owner's concerns about the weather.

 

Seems odd, though, that they'd make the call today instead of waiting to see tomorrow's forecast or even starting the race and taking a DNF to turn back if the forecast got nasty ahead of them. It seems like there are still multiple schools of thought on the forecast, and they aren't all boat-breaking.

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Haven't they had too major failures on that boat already? Mast last year? Something keel related at the c600 this year?

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Haven't they had too major failures on that boat already? Mast last year? Something keel related at the c600 this year?

Yup keel in the 600. They win day races but otherwise boats a shitter. Of course it's the emperors new clothes class with a grand total of 4 boats.

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Not likely, its NYYC and well the only OD class ever given has been the J44. That said, with what appears 10 in crewed class, 3 double handed and one modified it could be fun.

I have had this conversation with organizers. The issue is that the USCG only gives them a finite window to block the East passage to commercial traffic, which limits the available starting slots. Even if they had one that was free, they would be reluctant to open Pandora ' s box by favoring one class or another.

 

Seems fair to me.

They've given a start to same-model, non-class boats before. In the anniversary race (about 2006?) they gave an exclusive start to the J-42s, which are most definitely not a class. I have been told before, and this may not be correct, that they will give an exclusive start to a make/model if there are at least 8 of them. 10 J-120s in St. Davids would seem to qualify for that.

 

Anyway, if I were a J-120 skipper, I would ask. No harm in asking.

 

2N

I've been tracking the number of race starts since 1998 and there is some fluctuation - that is, it's not a static number that the RC tries to pigeon hole the fleet into. They've had as few as 12 starts (2000 and 2002) and as many as 17 (2012). 2012 had the lowest boat/start ratio since 1998 of 9.7 and 2006 had the highest at 16.5. I think the trend since 2006 of lowering the number of boats/start is a good one but clearly the magic number depends on the skills of the those entered. Here's a visual for you:

 

Bermuda_Race_Starts_2016.jpg

Turns out 9 J/120s are enough for their own start this year. The J/44s, with only 6 entered in SDL, got bumped.

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Haven't they had too major failures on that boat already? Mast last year? Something keel related at the c600 this year?

Yup keel in the 600. They win day races but otherwise boats a shitter. Of course it's the emperors new clothes class with a grand total of 4 boats.

 

 

 

You may wanna take a closer look at their last two seasons eh. NA champion, maxi yacht world champs 2x if memory serves, fastnet etc etc. Maybe I should go look it up for you to prove myself here but it's likely the most organized and 'pro' campaign currently under way with results to back it up. I actually think they shoulda given Hap the rolex last year. They won loads of races AND inshore regattas.

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Haven't they had too major failures on that boat already? Mast last year? Something keel related at the c600 this year?

Yup keel in the 600. They win day races but otherwise boats a shitter. Of course it's the emperors new clothes class with a grand total of 4 boats.

 

You may wanna take a closer look at their last two seasons eh. NA champion, maxi yacht world champs 2x if memory serves, fastnet etc etc. Maybe I should go look it up for you to prove myself here but it's likely the most organized and 'pro' campaign currently under way with results to back it up. I actually think they shoulda given Hap the rolex last year. They won loads of races AND inshore regattas.

Against how many boats? When Hap gets in a boat where his driving matters more than his checkbook, get back to us.

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The 72s are disposable shitboxes.

mon and tues RC wanted to race them outside Newport and they all refused. They raced in the bay. Tell me differently.

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The 72s are disposable shitboxes.

mon and tues RC wanted to race them outside Newport and they all refused. They raced in the bay. Tell me differently.

My guess is there are far more adoring fanboy and girl eyeballs inside the bay to stoke their maxi-egos, than outside??

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Haven't they had too major failures on that boat already? Mast last year? Something keel related at the c600 this year?

 

Yup keel in the 600. They win day races but otherwise boats a shitter. Of course it's the emperors new clothes class with a grand total of 4 boats.

 

You may wanna take a closer look at their last two seasons eh. NA champion, maxi yacht world champs 2x if memory serves, fastnet etc etc. Maybe I should go look it up for you to prove myself here but it's likely the most organized and 'pro' campaign currently under way with results to back it up. I actually think they shoulda given Hap the rolex last year. They won loads of races AND inshore regattas.

I'm not disputing they win a lot, but did they not also have a rig failure and keel issue during that same period?

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It's the newport-bermuda gay-ce! Never seen such a bunch of whinging assholes in my life!

This would have been my 12th NPT/Bermuda race. We decided to pull the plug. After seeing what our forecaster was saying and talking to a number of other boats I am happy with the decision that we are not going...bummed? For sure but it was the right call. Sitting on Slamtrack on the way back to CT and another buddy sent me their forecast. The forecaster suggested to that "race" boat that he did not recommend starting the race.

 

I am worried that this shit could get very "real". There are going to be a lot of broken boats but I am hoping that there will be no deaths.

 

Be safe out there my friends.

 

Cheers,

Jim

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Hypothetically, if someone wanted to anchor off Block Island, wait for the worst to pass, and then sail to Bermuda later, how long would they have to ride the anchor?

 

I realize that would be a ticket to DFL. But I'm a little unusual in that if it were me and I had made the call to not sail into that stuff, my personal preference would be to show up late and safe with DFL rather than taking the DNC and buying plane tickets. I've been DFL plenty of times and take pride in finishing no matter what the weather gods dish out, but I also very much respect safety-driven decisions. For me, this is a decent compromise, but I think I'm weird because no one ever seems to do this in situations like today.

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Hypothetically, if someone wanted to anchor off Block Island, wait for the worst to pass, and then sail to Bermuda later, how long would they have to ride the anchor?

 

I realize that would be a ticket to DFL. But I'm a little unusual in that if it were me and I had made the call to not sail into that stuff, my personal preference would be to show up late and safe with DFL rather than taking the DNC and buying plane tickets. I've been DFL plenty of times and take pride in finishing no matter what the weather gods dish out, but I also very much respect safety-driven decisions. For me, this is a decent compromise, but I think I'm weird because no one ever seems to do this in situations like today.

At least two days....maybe three. That front is stalled and while stalled will grow in size.

 

Cheers,

Jim

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Hypothetically, if someone wanted to anchor off Block Island, wait for the worst to pass, and then sail to Bermuda later, how long would they have to ride the anchor?

 

I realize that would be a ticket to DFL. But I'm a little unusual in that if it were me and I had made the call to not sail into that stuff, my personal preference would be to show up late and safe with DFL rather than taking the DNC and buying plane tickets. I've been DFL plenty of times and take pride in finishing no matter what the weather gods dish out, but I also very much respect safety-driven decisions. For me, this is a decent compromise, but I think I'm weird because no one ever seems to do this in situations like today.

 

 

Unless you are on a boat that should not be out there in the first place just shorten sail early and drive conservatively.

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Hypothetically, if someone wanted to anchor off Block Island, wait for the worst to pass, and then sail to Bermuda later, how long would they have to ride the anchor?

 

I realize that would be a ticket to DFL. But I'm a little unusual in that if it were me and I had made the call to not sail into that stuff, my personal preference would be to show up late and safe with DFL rather than taking the DNC and buying plane tickets. I've been DFL plenty of times and take pride in finishing no matter what the weather gods dish out, but I also very much respect safety-driven decisions. For me, this is a decent compromise, but I think I'm weird because no one ever seems to do this in situations like today.

 

 

Unless you are on a boat that should not be out there in the first place just shorten sail early and drive conservatively.

 

 

 

When we used to do it, it was on a Cambria 40 with a short stick. It sailed like a tank. It would have loved this iteration. But I realize a bunch of the boats that are dropping out aren't tanks. Sounds like they're making the right call to not go. It's one thing to burn 12 hours at anchor to drop behind a system... but if it's 2-3 days, then the decision is more of a "go or don't go" decision.

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I just hope that all come back safe (primary) and that the boat carnage is not severe (very much secondary). I'm sure there will be some that are glad they continued, some that wish they hadn't continued, and some that are glad they retreated to fight another day.

 

I won't second guess any of them. My thoughts are with all.

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Is this for real that none of the Gibbs hill boats started?

So I've heard. They are thinking about changing the name to "The Prima Donna Division". Been that way since 2008 when they all got their clocks cleaned by a little production boat whose full up price tag was smaller than their Bermuda Race budgets. Come 2010 they basically banned anything under 40 feet because those little bastards (and I quote) "gamed the system".........

 

 

Too much?

Dang, I guess I won't be invited to join the CCA anytime soon.

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

Remember that this race has no bailout point. No helo or RNLI rescue. And most of the entries are not CCA members.

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board dropped out! And even the Chairman of the Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta. Oh my!

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

Remember that this race has no bailout point. No helo or RNLI rescue. And most of the entries are not CCA members.

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board even dropped out! Oh my!

 

Sure it does, it could be now, 10hrs from now, before they hit the stream...I have a bad feeling we have some Village People fans out there and hope they stay on top of the weather. I saw boats starting today that I wouldn't want to be on in 20 let alone 30-40. For now, I just want this pansie talk to stop.

 

My point about CCA is that the S-H fields a much higher quality of participants from what I saw today. Seriously, when much of your fleet is made of cruising boats and double-handers, what can you claim?

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

Remember that this race has no bailout point. No helo or RNLI rescue. And most of the entries are not CCA members.

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board even dropped out! Oh my!

Sure it does, it could be now, 10hrs from now, before they hit the stream...I have a bad feeling we have some Village People fans out there and hope they stay on top of the weather. I saw boats starting today that I wouldn't want to be on in 20 let alone 30-40. For now, I just want this pansie talk to stop.
Many of them have 'Oakckiff' written on their side.

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

Remember that this race has no bailout point. No helo or RNLI rescue. And most of the entries are not CCA members.

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board even dropped out! Oh my!

Sure it does, it could be now, 10hrs from now, before they hit the stream...I have a bad feeling we have some Village People fans out there and hope they stay on top of the weather. I saw boats starting today that I wouldn't want to be on in 20 let alone 30-40. For now, I just want this pansie talk to stop.
Many of them have 'Oakckiff' written on their side.

 

 

I hope you're wrong. Recipe for disaster.

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Wishing all that started well. Not an easy decision for us to withdraw but the risks just seemed unacceptable. Likely everything will be fine but a cut off low over warm water can go nuclear pretty quickly. Let's keep it positive for those that went and respect the decisions of those teams that passed.

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Hypothetically, if someone wanted to anchor off Block Island, wait for the worst to pass, and then sail to Bermuda later, how long would they have to ride the anchor?

 

I realize that would be a ticket to DFL. But I'm a little unusual in that if it were me and I had made the call to not sail into that stuff, my personal preference would be to show up late and safe with DFL rather than taking the DNC and buying plane tickets. I've been DFL plenty of times and take pride in finishing no matter what the weather gods dish out, but I also very much respect safety-driven decisions. For me, this is a decent compromise, but I think I'm weird because no one ever seems to do this in situations like today.

 

 

Unless you are on a boat that should not be out there in the first place just shorten sail early and drive conservatively.

 

like a mini B)

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

 

Remember that this race has no bailout point. No helo or RNLI rescue. And most of the entries are not CCA members.

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board even dropped out! Oh my!

Sure it does, it could be now, 10hrs from now, before they hit the stream...I have a bad feeling we have some Village People fans out there and hope they stay on top of the weather. I saw boats starting today that I wouldn't want to be on in 20 let alone 30-40. For now, I just want this pansie talk to stop.

Pointing

Many of them have 'Oakckiff' written on their side.

 

Oakcliff has some very talented sailors on all their boats. They consistently perform well. Please do not put down the only us organization that is taking the future of US sailing seriously. Get off your high horse and wish them well

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Is this for real that none of the Gibbs hill boats started?

 

Is it for real that you didn't start!!!!?!?!

 

 

 

 

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board even dropped out! Oh my!
Sure it does, it could be now, 10hrs from now, before they hit the stream...I have a bad feeling we have some Village People fans out there and hope they stay on top of the weather. I saw boats starting today that I wouldn't want to be on in 20 let alone 30-40. For now, I just want this pansie talk to stop.

Pointing

Many of them have 'Oakckiff' written on their side.

 

Oakcliff has some very talented sailors on all their boats. They consistently perform well. Please do not put down the only us organization that is taking the future of US sailing seriously. Get off your high horse and wish them well

 

 

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

 

They're a bunch of trustafarian hacks who don't know the first thing about ocean racing and they're going to get someone hurt on their hopped up Farr 40s. Boats which when they were new wouldn't be structurally sound enough to go out of sight of land and are NOW the wettest, most flexible, softest things afloat.

 

Okay, we've heard from the Oakcliff PR department. Would anyone else like to chime in with a few opinions?

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Don't those wind barbs still show 35 - 45 knots? Our owner decided to pull the plug after the captain's briefing when some guy from the national weather service had a severe amount of caution in his voice and basically told the crowd that the models do not predict these systems well and it could well be under predicted. One of the navigators from a race boat that dropped out was talking about the weather models not being able to fully grasp the impact of the gulf stream on systems such as this. A lot of the pros were standing on shore watching the start. Lots of really smart people were relaxing at Castle Hill. There are those who stayed out of caution and those who went despite the warnings. One of these groups is going to look very smart. Hopefully everyone and every boat is around to sail another day.

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Hotels...eh why don't you bring your own camping gear? And save 40k £. First world problem

 

You don't have to be killed because you've booked hotel rooms.

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Don't those wind barbs still show 35 - 45 knots? Our owner decided to pull the plug after the captain's briefing when some guy from the national weather service had a severe amount of caution in his voice and basically told the crowd that the models do not predict these systems well and it could well be under predicted. One of the navigators from a race boat that dropped out was talking about the weather models not being able to fully grasp the impact of the gulf stream on systems such as this. A lot of the pros were standing on shore watching the start. Lots of really smart people were relaxing at Castle Hill. There are those who stayed out of caution and those who went despite the warnings. One of these groups is going to look very smart. Hopefully everyone and every boat is around to sail another day.

Low pressure system with rotation off Cape Hatteras moving east. What could go wrong?

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What's the deal with Carina hitting the Navy boat at the start? According to Bermuda paper the Navy boat was dismasted and Carina suffered bow damage?

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What's the deal with Carina hitting the Navy boat at the start? According to Bermuda paper the Navy boat was dismasted and Carina suffered bow damage?

that was last week. try to keep up with the group.

the short bus stop is over in cruising anarchy

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What's the deal with Carina hitting the Navy boat at the start? According to Bermuda paper the Navy boat was dismasted and Carina suffered bow damage?

that was last week. try to keep up with the group.

the short bus stop is over in cruising anarchy

 

 

Just a little sleep deprived after two 70 hour weeks in a row. If only the short bus would pick me up at 0500 hours, I could sleep through the commute....

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By and large, the whole fleet is CCA. From what I saw from the livescan start videos is that many boats are way over their heads for the forecast conditions. Can't trim, can't steer, don't know what a luff string is. If it ends up on the bad end of the forecast, I hope they bail and seek shelter. I don't want the next thread to be about an injury/fatality because they weren't pansies.

 

This race should never be mentioned in the same sentence with the S-H or Fastnet.

Remember that this race has no bailout point. No helo or RNLI rescue. And most of the entries are not CCA members.

Boats with current and past Commodores of STC on board even dropped out! Oh my!

Sure it does, it could be now, 10hrs from now, before they hit the stream...I have a bad feeling we have some Village People fans out there and hope they stay on top of the weather. I saw boats starting today that I wouldn't want to be on in 20 let alone 30-40. For now, I just want this pansie talk to stop.

 

My point about CCA is that the S-H fields a much higher quality of participants from what I saw today. Seriously, when much of your fleet is made of cruising boats and double-handers, what can you claim?

Define "higher quality participants". It sounds to me like you mean a bunch of assholes who think they are glamorous.

 

 

As to what this race proves : That normal people who actually enjoy sailing without a bunch of paid pro prima donnas can actually go out for the adventure and self fulfillment and do just fine.

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Less than 24 hours into the race, Comanche is already through the Gulf Steam and pressing to break Rambler’s elapsed time record from 2012. “We’re in Champagne conditions, making 20-25 knots,” said skipper Kenny Read. At press time 7:00PM in Bermuda, Comanche was 213 miles from the St. David’s Lighthouse finish in Bermuda doing 20kts. At that pace she would cross the finish line as early as 3:00AM, some 7hrs ahead of the record.

The existing (and probably soon to be old) course record is an average speed of 16 knots and an elapsed time of 39 hr. 39 min. 18 sec. That record was set four years ago, in the last “reaching race,” by George David’s 90-foot Rambler, which clipped a spectacular 14 hours off the previous best time set during the previous “reaching race,” in 2002, by Roy Disney’s Pyewacket. “These were perfect conditions,” David told Colin Thompson of Bermuda's Royal Gazette after collecting the bottle of champagne that’s the traditional reward for the line honors winner.

Rambler not only slashed the race record. She easily beat the next two boats by more than 90 minutes—the Maxi 72s Bella Mente (owned by Hap Fauth) and Shockwave (George Sakellaris), with Bella Mente winning by just 2 minutes on elapsed time. Shockwave turned the tables on her in 2014 by a margin almost as small—7 minutes.

With the Maxis opting not to race this year, when Comanche finishes on Sunday, whoever is observing will have the right to quote the sailor who told Queen Victoria about the yacht America in 1851: “Madam, there is no second.”

Easy sailing overnight, but what’s coming?

The first night of the 50th Bermuda Race found the 130 boats in the fleet reaching comfortably in a light westerly wind, most tightly bunched well behind the leader, Comanche. Jim and Kristy Clark’s 100-foot all-out racing sloop covered the first 181 miles in 13 hours. Some 80 miles behind her was the Hubbard family’s Siren, and then the pack. Surrounding them all was concern about upcoming weather.

The New York Yacht Club Race Committee, which started the race in 16 classes over three hours on Friday afternoon, reported a total of 133 starters in flat water and a 10-knot breeze gradually clocking from South to Southwest. Three boats later withdrew — Challenger, Momentum, and Soulmates — leaving 130 in the race on Saturday morning. Most are directly in Comanche’s wake, but a few have sailed off to the west, undoubtedly with a strategy of making the best of Sunday’s changing weather that has been anticipated all week in forecasts.

The boats and their crews are the story, and also the weather and everybody’s profound concerns about it. Friday night and Saturday morning’s weather and sailing have been ideal in every way except high boat speeds and excitement. The wind has been light but not ahead, and so the boats made good speed reaching in smooth water.

Jonathan Green, skipper of the Double-Handed Division boat Jeroboam (defending her 2014 race win), reported at 8PM Friday as follows: “We had a good start off the line and beat down to Point Judith before tacking. We were then lifted to the rhumb line and the lift continued so we are now reaching with the jib barber-hauled to the rail and heading straight for Bermuda. Wind may abate this evening but we shall see. All is well on board.”

A.J. Evans, sailing in Lenny Sitar’s St. David’s Lighthouse Division J-44 Vamp reported at 1AM Saturday: “We are currently experiencing light westerlies around 7-8 knots. Cool, dry air. Flat or gentle sea state. Nearly full moon (I think that’s full on Sunday), with unlimited visibility. We’ve settled into our offshore routine and are hoping breeze doesn’t die as much as forecast. (Evans chairs the Bermuda Race Organizing Committee.)

Inisharon, a 44-footer in the Cruiser Division, had this report around midnight: “Crew is well into the watch schedule and so far beautiful night of idyllic sailing. Wind has come off some, but we are making good progress and trying to get every bit of speed out of the boat. Easy sailing so trying to make sure everyone’s getting the sleep they need and charging their batteries in anticipation of a bumpy crossing of the Gulf Stream. 152nm to the entry point of the Gulf Stream, so roughly 30 hours before we get there.”

Forecasts for the Stream
That target – the Gulf Stream entry point – is extremely significant. According to the 6:40 AM Saturday weather forecast from Commanders Weather, once the boats are south of latitude 40 degrees, a front should cause the wind to increase and shift into the north and northeast, and then strengthen on Saturday night and Sunday as the fleet nears the Gulf Stream. This segment of the 635-mile Bermuda Race course always attracts attention because the Stream’s hot water can breed squally weather and steep waves.

This race has seen disagreement among forecasters. Some forecasts earlier in the week before the start called for strong northerly gales and an extremely rough sea as the wind clashes with the Stream’s northerly flow. These gloomy forecasts reportedly influenced 53 crews who had entered the race (including all entries in the Gibbs Hill Lighthouse Division) to either decline to start or later, to drop out.

According to the new Saturday morning forecast however, there appears to be a consensus that conditions will be more moderate. There will be wind, but peaking around 35 knots (with higher gusts in squalls). And there will be rough water, but more in line with what experienced Bermuda Race sailors call “typical Gulf Stream conditions” — in other words, uncomfortable but not dangerous to good boats and capable sailors. Time will tell if the conditions will, in fact, be typically bouncy or atypically much worse.

The boats can be followed on Race Tracking, available on the race website.

NOTE: A four-hour delay is imposed on reports to prevent competitors from taking advantage of learning about other boats’ positions and performance.

- John Rousmaniere

 

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Not sure the record means as much today. Boats are being built to smash records and Comanche is the epitome of this mindset. The ability to actually win the race has become unimportant so long as you can get there first. The race organizers have to give them "special" divisions so that they can enter. To me it is meaningless if you are not even eligible for the lighthouse trophies. The Bermuda Race is all about the lighthouse trophies, not some record for some boat(s) that can't even compete for the main prize(s).

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Shadow, with all due respect, has a boat in the S-H or Fastnet ever crushed the fleet like this? Seriously, we get a higher quality set of boats in the Chicago to Mackinac race. Bottom line, the Newport to Bermuda race is not a premier race. Put a fork in it.

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