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DryArmour

Good morning Erika- Atlantic Tropical Wx

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Southeastern US Tropical Wx Update- While not a stunning picture of a tropical cyclone, Erika will cause some problems for the Virgin Islands , Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and then if everything plays according out to the forecast, Ft Lauderdale and Miami may be on the hit parade next Monday. Plan accordingly people.

The models in every aspect are all over the board. Track guidance varies wildly, intensity models are everything from a tropical wave in 3-4 days to a somewhat nasty hurricane by day 5 knocking on the door near Miami. This is a good time to remind everyone that the track at days 4/5 can be hundreds of miles off and the intensity in this completely bizarre tropical season falls into the "ANYTHING" category. If you live anywhere in the SE or in the islands of the Caribbean, pay close attention until this storm has passed.

 

I'll post a static picture from this morning's forecast and then an evolving link as the forecast changes below.

115459W5_NL_sm.gif

Erika Wednesday 1000HRS EDT.gif

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ugh. this again....

 

Hopefully we'll get an early right turn

 

Maybe. Too early to tell. Might also fizzle out.

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The forecast track is frankly bizarre beyond day six. This could end up being quite the wandering storm. Pay attention if you live anywhere on the East Coast or on the Island of Bermuda.

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5 missing in Dominica as TS Erika unleashes landslides
http://thegardenisland.com/news/state-and-regional/missing-in-dominica-as-ts-erika-unleashes-landslides/article_70594912-618c-5bf8-8339-d0e036c97ef2.html


ROSEAU, Dominica (AP) — Tropical Storm Erika unleashed severe flooding across Dominica on Thursday, triggering landslides that destroyed at least 20 homes in the tiny eastern Caribbean island as authorities searched for five people reported missing.
Nearly 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain fell on the mountainous country late Wednesday, followed by another 6 inches (15 centimeters) early Thursday, according to the Antigua Weather Service.

"The situation is grim. It is dangerous," said Ian Pinard, Dominica's communications minister.

Two people were reported missing in the capital, and another three in the island's southeastern region, said national disaster official Don Corriette.

About 80 percent of the island was without electricity, and water supply was cut off, authorities said. The main airport was closed due to flooding.

The main river that cuts through the capital overflowed its banks and surging water crashed into the principal bridge that leads into Roseau, whose roads were littered with fallen trees and light poles. Some streets were turned into fast-flowing rivers.

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Honking on St. Croix right now. Glad we built the house out of Greenheart and entirely off grid.

 

Very sad about the deaths in Dominica.

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Dave,

 

As a survivor of Hugo, I can empathize. I looked at the weather on the news tonight and just knew that STX would be getting the brunt. Greenheart will see you through. Our prayers are with you.

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A close pass by a tropical system provides pretty much the only good sailing conditions we ever see in August. It's possible to have wind without the imminent threat of a t-storm.

 

So I'm hoping to go get wet on Sunday.

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^^^^^^^^. ^^^^^. ^^^^^^^^^🎉

 

Nothing like a nearby disaster to set the mood for done great sailing

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Track more inland but significantly weaker this AM. Discussion even calls for a chance of dissipating within 24 hours. Can't discount Erika but may be more fizzle than fight.

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Don't be too quick to write this off.

 

Charlie was benign until he went over Cudjoe and into the warm shallow water of Florida Bay. Likewise Whilma was not bad until she came across the Everglades.

 

If this morning's track is accurate, could be interesting from a model testing perspective.

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Not writing this storm off yet but the persistent Westerly track defying all models to turn north is likely to be the defining factor of this storm.

If Erika turns north now she has the Mountains of Hispaniola to deal with and if not then the mountains of Cuba.

I feel for the residents of these islands as Erika has already killed and it is extremely likely she will take many more lives in the DR, Haiti and Cuba.

 

Not much more West and this could be a gulf storm.

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This excerpt is from Jeff Masters' Wunderground blog this morning:

 

Will Erika survive Hispaniola?
Erika's battle against dry air and high wind shear has caused the center of the storm to reform several time to the south of its original position, closer to the storm's heaviest thunderstorms. These southward shifts mean that Erika is now poised to track directly over mountainous Hispaniola island, whose highest peak exceeds 10,000 feet in height. This encounter will not go well for Erika, particularly since wind shear will remain a high 15 - 25 knots during the traverse, and dry air will continue to wrap into Erika's circulation during the crossing. These combined factors could lead to Erika's dissipation by Saturday morning. The traverse of the island may also cause the center to reform to the west of the island, which would then mean that Erika would encounter some of the high terrain of eastern Cuba. If Erika survives into Saturday morning, which I give a 50% chance of occurring, the storm may have time to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds before hitting South Florida. If Erika dissipates over Hispaniola Friday night, the storm could still reorganize into a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds before encountering South Florida. The upper low over Cuba that is bringing high wind shear to Erika today is forecast to weaken on Sunday, which should cause wind shear to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which would allow some modest strengthening of Erika. A trough of low pressure will turn Erika to the north on Monday, and it is possible this turn will occur just west of the Florida, bringing Erika northwards along the west coast of Florida and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday--as suggested by the 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) runs of the European and UKMET models. Regardless, much of Florida can expect heavy flooding rains from Erika Sunday through Tuesday.

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And they came in a group. We went through three of them that all crossed about 10 miles from where I live, creating a triangle near Lake Wales. Charlie was the fastest moving one I have ever seen, with movement on every pass of the radar. Watched news updates on a small portable TV plugged into the cigarette lighter outlet in our van, sitting in lawn chairs in the garage.

 

Erika is not impressing me, the mountains of Dominican/Haiti and Cuba working it over.

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