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DryArmour

Aloha Ignacio. Please fall apart...

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Hawaiian Island Tropical Update-0800 HRS Wednesday- The models continue to struggle with intensity but according to the latest data crunching Ignacio is due to visit the Big Island and Maui early next week. This is an almost identical scenario to what the models had lined up for Tropical Storm Kilo. Kilo of course defied the models, fell apart and went south of the islands. Current tropical season score Pele 3- Tropical Cyclones 0. The subtropical jet usually does a pretty good job of sheering storms apart when they approach from the ESE. We'll see how Ignacio handles the shear. There is another system behind Ignacio (96E) so keep informed with the latest updates from your local Emergency Management Teams.

 

ep201512_model.gif

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Kilo passes a few hundred miles to the south and our sewers blow up and spill all kinds of nastiness into the ocean. God knows what would happen if we had an actual hurricane out here. Thanks for the update, Mark-- the "Severe Storm Teams!!!!" on t.v. are already tracking Ignacio, but I listen to you first.

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Never a dull moment - just had a shipmate of mine call while he's working on the East Coast wondering about the Labor day race - my only advise was to "Keep your options open" - which is pretty much always a good idea...

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whats the likelyhood of sheering mark ? apparently not as good as kilo .

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^^^ More shear if it tracks N, less to the S:

post-41116-0-87874300-1440646776_thumb.gif

 

Along the OFCI track:

 

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IGNACIO     EP122015  08/27/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    65    71    76    81    82    85    89    89    87    88    88    86    81

SHEAR (KT)        11    15    12    13    15    10    11    10     4     6     5     8    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3    -1     2     2     1    -1    -2     1    -2    -4     4     0
SHEAR DIR        101   100   100    87    91   101    89   132   168   171   196   229   236
SST (C)         28.6  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.4  28.2  28.0  27.7  27.5  27.3  27.3  27.4  27.6


  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  50            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  517  (MEAN=581)

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Here on the big island we did get plenty of rain from kilo, but not much else. Actually wasn't bad laser sailing in Hilo bay all day Sunday. Se winds, very weird for the bay I guess, and puffy and shifty. We will have to see what happens with these next two. Go Pele!

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I saw Jimena is predicted to go to Cat 5 and is next in line behind Ignacio.

 

Mark - any recollection of the last time Eastern Pacific named storms rolled into the Central Pacific area consecutively?

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This isn't what I was hoping for:

 

rgb_lalo-animated.gif

 

        * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IGNACIO     EP122015  08/29/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   100   105   108   108   103    96    82    74    65    64    61    60    57

SHEAR (KT)         5     2     3     8    12    10    16    20    21    17    17    18    20
SHEAR DIR        309   329   279   257   257   236   242   206   218   209   225   238   260
SST (C)         27.9  27.7  27.5  27.4  27.3  27.3  27.3  27.5  27.4  27.2  27.2  27.3  27.1

LAND (KM)       1004   912   821   731   642   475   335   218   193   206   265   316   400
LAT (DEG N)     15.7  16.2  16.7  17.2  17.7  18.5  19.5  20.5  21.7  22.8  23.9  24.9  25.8
LONG(DEG W)    146.2 146.9 147.6 148.3 149.0 150.4 151.6 153.0 154.4 155.8 157.0 158.3 159.5
STM SPEED (KT)     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     9     9     8     8     7     7
HEAT CONTENT      28    28    27    28    34    28    26    30    19    19    17    11     9


   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO    08/29/15  12 UTC         ##
   ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS  ##
   ## AHI=  1   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

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I see a tall column circling the eye with maximum surface winds at 50 knots or below, peak winds of ~70 knots at ~5,000 feet altitude:

An artifact of the grid size of the global models is that they under-report max winds for small or fast moving systems. When the grids are big relative to the wind gradient the high numbers get averaged out.

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Decisions..decisions. Looks like we are right on the edge here on the east side of the big island. Tested gen, plenty of gas in cars and cans, deck furniture packed away, chicken coups anchored down, plenty of water and batteries. I'll wait till the lat minute to decide on the carport tarp. But at least I'll be ready for Jimena a few days later.

It is weird to see the cones of two named hurricanes overlapped.....

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