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DtM

2015 Sydney to Hobart

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$1.90 to beat loyal & $2.50 to be in the top 3 - I gotta be w chance on both bets. I think they'll be third & the first millionaire to finish seeing as though Bob & Jim are billionaires.

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My prediction;

 

Oats to nurse the boat a bit in the rough stuff and Comanche to come out in front after the southerly, Comanche to hold that lead and win by 15min over a fast finishing Oats up the river in lighter breeze.

 

R88 3rd over the line, Rags 4th, Loyal to break and not finish.

 

Handicap I reckon Chutzpah might have a chance this year, will def be a sub 55 footer.

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I can't see Rambler beating RAGS in a mixed bag of weather race or maybe I'm just out of touch.

 

& WOXI never seems to take the foot out in front, which has lead to great helicopter footage last 3 years.

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1st Loyal

2nd Rambler

3rd Maserati

 

Retired Comanche, structural concerns

Retired WOXI, broken mast

 

Handicap Brindabella

Ichi Ban

Quick point azzuro

 

Will be some serious questions asked if Comanche retires due to structural unless off course she suffers the same fate as some of the VPLP Imoca Boats? I'm sure this is not the case and if history is anything to go by Loyal will break before Oats and Comanche.

 

If Comanche can get down to Bass Strait before the light patch I think the honours will be as follows:

 

1. Comanche

2. Oats

3. Rambler

4. Loyal

5. Rags

 

handicap- Chinese Whispers

 

I put Loyal up there because of the first 24 hours of last years footage, Comanche, Oats and rags were reefed and smaller headsail, while Loyal was under full sail and drove to a 2 mile lead. The platform has decent righting moment, and can hold onto both downhill in a stink with a little more weight can punch through.

The TJV is my reason for comanche not being pushed to the outer limits. I wouldn't like to be manning the telephone at VPLP, Its not worth bashing that thing to pieces for a race that is so close its 24hr/620ml record. It was built to do different things.

Using wild rose as a reference, Brindabella has just enough length to hold on and can driven hard, with no square top main, no swingy bits, its rating is about right.

I see your point about Chinese Whisper however. You may chosen the right door.

Good luck to you Sir.

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Loyal couldn't win a chook raffle

WTF? They have Michael Clarke on board. He won Lara Bingle.

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Loyal couldn't win a chook raffle

WTF? They have Michael Clarke on board. He won Lara Bingle.

 

How appropriate - all in Hobart calling out, "So, where the bloody hell are ya?"

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1st Loyal

2nd Rambler

3rd Maserati

 

Retired Comanche, structural concerns

Retired WOXI, broken mast

 

Handicap Brindabella

Ichi Ban

Quick point azzuro

 

Will be some serious questions asked if Comanche retires due to structural unless off course she suffers the same fate as some of the VPLP Imoca Boats? I'm sure this is not the case and if history is anything to go by Loyal will break before Oats and Comanche.

 

If Comanche can get down to Bass Strait before the light patch I think the honours will be as follows:

 

1. Comanche

2. Oats

3. Rambler

4. Loyal

5. Rags

 

handicap- Chinese Whispers

 

I put Loyal up there because of the first 24 hours of last years footage, Comanche, Oats and rags were reefed and smaller headsail, while Loyal was under full sail and drove to a 2 mile lead. The platform has decent righting moment, and can hold onto both downhill in a stink with a little more weight can punch through.

The TJV is my reason for comanche not being pushed to the outer limits. I wouldn't like to be manning the telephone at VPLP, Its not worth bashing that thing to pieces for a race that is so close its 24hr/620ml record. It was built to do different things.

Using wild rose as a reference, Brindabella has just enough length to hold on and can driven hard, with no square top main, no swingy bits, its rating is about right.

I see your point about Chinese Whisper however. You may chosen the right door.

Good luck to you Sir.

 

Funny to talk about C slowing down for structural concerns thinking Loyal can push harder. C has different structure than vplp60,Loyal retired last year with...structural issues

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1st Loyal

2nd Rambler

3rd Maserati

 

Retired Comanche, structural concerns

Retired WOXI, broken mast

 

Handicap Brindabella

Ichi Ban

Quick point azzuro

Sorry guys, Brindabella is going PHS this year.

 

Much as we'd love to take the IRC trophy, it'd literally be taking it. Followed by a police chase, and possibly some jail time.

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1st Loyal

2nd Rambler

3rd Maserati

 

Retired Comanche, structural concerns

Retired WOXI, broken mast

 

Handicap Brindabella

Ichi Ban

Quick point azzuro

Sorry guys, Brindabella is going PHS this year.

 

Much as we'd love to take the IRC trophy, it'd literally be taking it. Followed by a police chase, and possibly some jail time.

 

don't i look like a fool.

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1st Loyal

2nd Rambler

3rd Maserati

 

Retired Comanche, structural concerns

Retired WOXI, broken mast

 

Handicap Brindabella

Ichi Ban

Quick point azzuro

 

Will be some serious questions asked if Comanche retires due to structural unless off course she suffers the same fate as some of the VPLP Imoca Boats? I'm sure this is not the case and if history is anything to go by Loyal will break before Oats and Comanche.

 

If Comanche can get down to Bass Strait before the light patch I think the honours will be as follows:

 

1. Comanche

2. Oats

3. Rambler

4. Loyal

5. Rags

 

handicap- Chinese Whispers

 

I put Loyal up there because of the first 24 hours of last years footage, Comanche, Oats and rags were reefed and smaller headsail, while Loyal was under full sail and drove to a 2 mile lead. The platform has decent righting moment, and can hold onto both downhill in a stink with a little more weight can punch through.

The TJV is my reason for comanche not being pushed to the outer limits. I wouldn't like to be manning the telephone at VPLP, Its not worth bashing that thing to pieces for a race that is so close its 24hr/620ml record. It was built to do different things.

Using wild rose as a reference, Brindabella has just enough length to hold on and can driven hard, with no square top main, no swingy bits, its rating is about right.

I see your point about Chinese Whisper however. You may chosen the right door.

Good luck to you Sir.

 

Funny to talk about C slowing down for structural concerns thinking Loyal can push harder. C has different structure than vplp60,Loyal retired last year with...structural issues

 

Yes i see your point, however C has not not had a windward bash in anything serious, That and forward of the mast is monolithic, imagine the concussion and load transference. Why risk it? Loyal bashing is just not my thing. I'll take the excuse that it bonked something.

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Rags is not sailing well. She only just beat Rio in the dying minutes last year and looked out of sorts in the BB. I keep saying I hope she does well, love the Dovell hull but even in the Trans she went way out wide despite all the other boats and lost out big to Oats etc. Loyal have some good guys onboard this year, Coxon, Simmer and Slingsby they might do well if they don't break. Rambler will smoke Rags based on form.

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given the transpac was 9 ish days her percentage behind oats wasn't great, but that was easy sliding downhill on a light chined hull, no test of 'all round' capability or upwind performance

 

like steaknkidney we may never see whether shes any good or not, the massive no-dollars spared programs are with the opposition.

 

If she 'races' Loyal or Rambler that would be a good result

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" Rob Mundle – Wild Oats XI Media Manager

A weather forecast for the Rolex Sydney Hobart race issued early today was ringing alarm bells to the point today where Iain Murray, the tactician aboard Bob and Sandy Oatley’s supermaxi Wild Oats XI, suggested the start of the race might have to be delayed if it proved correct.

The outlook for Bass Strait, which was the scene of the tragedy in the 1998 Hobart Race, was, according to one of the computer generated weather models, likely to see howling south-westerly headwinds of up to 40 knots, and powerful, breaking seas."

 

Sounds like Ian Murray is worried about the boat staying in 1 piece...

Surely he has sailed in 40 knots on the nose before.

 

Ring Ring .... Ring Ring ...

Hello, this is NSW Roads and Maritime Services how can we help you today ?

I'd like to speak to someone about closing Sydney Harbour

One moment please ....

Special Events Department, how can I help you today ?

Its the CYCA here, we have an event on Boxing Day

One moment ... yes I have the details here, you have a yacht race to Hobart and you're expecting a thousand or so spectator vessels ?

Yes that's it. You're closing the harbour for us and laying a couple of hundred small float marks to create spectator areas and an exclusion zone right up the middle for the yachts

That's correct and we've lined up the water police, Marine Rescue and other agencies to manage the water on that day. Is there something else ?

Yes, one of our biggest boats is worried about the weather and we're wondering if we can change it all to the following day ?

Dear Mr. Murray,

 

Given the current forecast we have decided to postpone the start until stronger northerly conditions return.

 

Regards,

CYCA

 

PS, Maybe now you will STFU and quit telling us how we should run OUR game.

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Rags is not sailing well. She only just beat Rio in the dying minutes last year and looked out of sorts in the BB. I keep saying I hope she does well, love the Dovell hull but even in the Trans she went way out wide despite all the other boats and lost out big to Oats etc. Loyal have some good guys onboard this year, Coxon, Simmer and Slingsby they might do well if they don't break. Rambler will smoke Rags based on form.

I think RAGS just take a risk knowing they can't beat WOXI boat for boat. They are there for line honours not 2nd or 3rd so if you can't win a match race you need to take a different route.

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If you were to believe the Grib files, the NEer could last a lot longer than others are forecasting...

.

so what time do they have the Sou' Buster?

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Currently there is no alignment in any of the models on the timing of the southerly change with presently around a 8 hour spread. For instance for Bateman's Bay the range is between 4.00pm and midnight.

 

The parking lot in Bass Strait looks to be drifting out to be more like midnight Sunday to midday Monday although that to is still all over the shop in terms of timing and magnitude.

 

About the only certain thing is that it will be the usual 3 races in 1.

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BOM says it should reach Batemans Bay by 8pm and Sydney by midnight so you'd think the leaders will run into it by 6-8pm and the rest of the fleet by 10pm

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Start of the SOLAS Big Boat Challenge - from George's Heights. I dunno how to embed youtubes here, so click on the link for a couple of minutes of the lead four duking it out up the harbour after the start.

 

https://youtu.be/TD3VvRCDTNY

 

 

 

(If someone can enlighten me as to embedding Youtube clips here, I have several more vids to post - including downhill footage.

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Start of the SOLAS Big Boat Challenge - from George's Heights. I dunno how to embed youtubes here, so click on the link for a couple of minutes of the lead four duking it out up the harbour after the start.

 

https://youtu.be/TD3VvRCDTNY

 

 

 

(If someone can enlighten me as to embedding Youtube clips here, I have several more vids to post - including downhill footage.

 

 

Use the www.youtube.com URL rather than www.youtu.be

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BOM says it should reach Batemans Bay by 8pm and Sydney by midnight so you'd think the leaders will run into it by 6-8pm and the rest of the fleet by 10pm

Go to BOM Marine Wind not BOM Meteye (which is more terrestrial). You will find BOM are one of early change brigade with Batemans Bay by 4.00pm and Port Kembla around 7.00pm.

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Its funny, that video really makes it look like WOXI is dragging its arse in the water compared to its pre-mod shorter bow. the rig further forward gave it a more aggressive look.

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Its funny, that video really makes it look like WOXI is dragging its arse in the water compared to its pre-mod shorter bow. the rig further forward gave it a more aggressive look.

 

Also looks half a knot quicker upwind at least, within the 30 second clip look at how it extends it's lead.

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BOM says it should reach Batemans Bay by 8pm and Sydney by midnight so you'd think the leaders will run into it by 6-8pm and the rest of the fleet by 10pm

Go to BOM Marine Wind not BOM Meteye (which is more terrestrial). You will find BOM are one of early change brigade with Batemans Bay by 4.00pm and Port Kembla around 7.00pm.

 

 

Then it's on the nose until Monday at around 10pm before it swings around aft.

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Its funny, that video really makes it look like WOXI is dragging its arse in the water compared to its pre-mod shorter bow. the rig further forward gave it a more aggressive look.

 

Also looks half a knot quicker upwind at least, within the 30 second clip look at how it extends it's lead.

 

yeah it looks like they were in a league of there own in that short burst .

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Its funny, that video really makes it look like WOXI is dragging its arse in the water compared to its pre-mod shorter bow. the rig further forward gave it a more aggressive look.

 

Also looks half a knot quicker upwind at least, within the 30 second clip look at how it extends it's lead.

 

yeah it looks like they were in a league of there own in that short burst .

 

+1

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That angle doesn't show the fact she was pointing 4-5 degrees higher than the other three, at least, closing on the windward mark.

I think we need to question this pointing assumption. At the end of the day these are high all tech maxi yachts, all running the same types of sails and rigs. Pointing 4-5 degrees higher implies a significantly smaller AWA, which just isn't possible with the sail technology they all use. I doubt they get below around 20-21 degrees AWA and only get that low through very flat sail shapes. In fact, the faster a boat goes upwind the further forward it tries to pull AWA, and to keep the sails powered up they actually need to bear off and sail fatter TWA. That's why soft sailed trimarans sail around in the 50+ TWA range for maximum upwind VMG.

 

Chances are if one boat appeared to sail significantly higher it was making less leeway or enjoying a favourable shift. And if closing on the mark, may have dialled in a mega high and slow mode for tactical reasons.

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last one. Downhill. Surprised me a bit to see Rambler and Rags go so high and underneath Shark Island. Possibly because of the Code 0? and wind angle?

 

There's an Oats-only vid over on the Oats page.

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That angle doesn't show the fact she was pointing 4-5 degrees higher than the other three, at least, closing on the windward mark.

I think we need to question this pointing assumption. At the end of the day these are high all tech maxi yachts, all running the same types of sails and rigs. Pointing 4-5 degrees higher implies a significantly smaller AWA, which just isn't possible with the sail technology they all use. I doubt they get below around 20-21 degrees AWA and only get that low through very flat sail shapes. In fact, the faster a boat goes upwind the further forward it tries to pull AWA, and to keep the sails powered up they actually need to bear off and sail fatter TWA. That's why soft sailed trimarans sail around in the 50+ TWA range for maximum upwind VMG.

 

Chances are if one boat appeared to sail significantly higher it was making less leeway or enjoying a favourable shift. And if closing on the mark, may have dialled in a mega high and slow mode for tactical reasons.

 

Yep, you are probably right, to the naked eye, Oats looked higher. Particularly after this sequence finished, and I ran across the headland to observe them as they closed in on the top mark. In the end, Rambler and Rags tacked, probably because of dirty air.

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last one. Downhill. Surprised me a bit to see Rambler and Rags go so high and underneath Shark Island. Possibly because of the Code 0? and wind angle?

 

There's an Oats-only vid over on the Oats page.

 

Rambler was taking Rags high to keep from getting rolled.

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What odds are being offered for the PRC boat? Is it just my conspiratorial nature or does anyone else think that it may be more than a mere coincidence that the BOM was hacked by China just recently?

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last one. Downhill. Surprised me a bit to see Rambler and Rags go so high and underneath Shark Island. Possibly because of the Code 0? and wind angle?

 

There's an Oats-only vid over on the Oats page.

Rambler was taking Rags high to keep from getting rolled.

 

and it worked, as well as boat speed didn't seem to be much different , ironically .

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last one. Downhill. Surprised me a bit to see Rambler and Rags go so high and underneath Shark Island. Possibly because of the Code 0? and wind angle?

 

There's an Oats-only vid over on the Oats page.

 

No because Rags was climbing over Rambler so they heated up to protect themselves.

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Merry Xmas to you lot. Roll on Boxing day.

How the forecast will shape the results? Throw a dart at a dartboard, I can't pick it, there's too many changes.

Will the front runners get far enough south before the light airs kick in? Aah..S2H, bring it on.

Rooting for the little guys for Tattersall's, can't wait to watch the big guys fight.

Part of me is rooting for Commanche I must admit, might be that horny hull shape :)

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Merry Christmas, SA's. Big day tomorrow. Hoping to watch the action from Hornby Light area, South Head. If the Sydney traffic doesn't get me first! Might take the ferry though. Have a great day, all.

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So looking like a southerly change for the fleet around 2100 on the first day.

 

Does anyone remember a helicopter shot of the two leading boats in S2H about 25 years ago where the lead boat got into trouble as the southerly came through, yet the trailing boat sailed on without dropping their kite and had the same problems?

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So looking like a southerly change for the fleet around 2100 on the first day.

 

Does anyone remember a helicopter shot of the two leading boats in S2H about 25 years ago where the lead boat got into trouble as the southerly came through, yet the trailing boat sailed on without dropping their kite and had the same problems?

Kialoa iii and Windward Passage IIRC

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Looks like it could be a long hard slog for the real racers - the teams in the 40 - 50footers who will feel every wave, get thrown around, scoff food if & when they can, battle their sleep demons and race hard for rum bets.

Good luck and stay safe!

Special mention to Team Chutzpah - Go Fletch & Blake!!

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Thanks DD, it was the 1977 S2H, there is a great youtube clip about it, sorry I can't link it. Just search Sydney to Hobart 1977, well worth a look.

 

Kialoa III is hit with a clear air southerly change with her kites up, whilst about a mile behind Windward Passage sails on seemingly unawares. Both have to head north for a while until they can drop their kites and get under control to head south again. All caught by someone filming from a helo', some great shots.

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Still no model consensus on the timing of the southerly change and still with around a 8 hour split. The mean time which also corresponds to BOM's is 5.00pm at Batemans Bay. Initially short spell 30-40k cranking back pretty quickly over a couple of hours to 20-25k and backing SW.

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The weather is going light down the coast and around Tasmania after the front this has the Silver Bullet written all over it..! IMO She may even win handicap unless someone light Rambler keeps close. Chinese Whisper for handicap if not.

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So looking like a southerly change for the fleet around 2100 on the first day.

 

Does anyone remember a helicopter shot of the two leading boats in S2H about 25 years ago where the lead boat got into trouble as the southerly came through, yet the trailing boat sailed on without dropping their kite and had the same problems?

Kialoa iii and Windward Passage IIRC

 

Here you go:
at 16:26

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So looking like a southerly change for the fleet around 2100 on the first day.

 

Does anyone remember a helicopter shot of the two leading boats in S2H about 25 years ago where the lead boat got into trouble as the southerly came through, yet the trailing boat sailed on without dropping their kite and had the same problems?

Kialoa iii and Windward Passage IIRC

 

Here you go:
at 16:26

 

Nice. Thx.

 

How many of those Farr centerb'drs did S2H after this?

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So looking like a southerly change for the fleet around 2100 on the first day.

 

Does anyone remember a helicopter shot of the two leading boats in S2H about 25 years ago where the lead boat got into trouble as the southerly came through, yet the trailing boat sailed on without dropping their kite and had the same problems?

Kialoa iii and Windward Passage IIRC

Here you go:
at 16:26

Nice. Thx.

 

How many of those Farr centerb'drs did S2H after this?

IOR moved against centreboard boats pretty quickly IIRC. They were converted to fixed keel before too many years, but only had a short competitive life in any case. Whiting's Smackwater Jack was famously lost sailing back to NZ after a Hobart race, 1980 maybe?

 

http://rbsailing.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/jenny-h-farr-one-tonner.html?m=1

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That's an excellent video. I especially like that the narrator manages to be rude about several boats' sailing or navigation skills, the colonial backwardness of Hobart and does whole thing about the aboriginal genocide and Flinders Island.

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That's an excellent video. I especially like that the narrator manages to be rude about several boats' sailing or navigation skills, the colonial backwardness of Hobart and does whole thing about the aboriginal genocide and Flinders Island.

Haha, my favorite is when he talks about the start, and says "there was some confusion". Clearly he has never been on a start line, there is never any confusion. Just many boats doing it wrong. All but mine ;)

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Thanks DD, it was the 1977 S2H, there is a great youtube clip about it, sorry I can't link it. Just search Sydney to Hobart 1977, well worth a look.

 

Kialoa III is hit with a clear air southerly change with her kites up, whilst about a mile behind Windward Passage sails on seemingly unawares. Both have to head north for a while until they can drop their kites and get under control to head south again. All caught by someone filming from a helo', some great shots.

Is the doco, at about 17 min in the drama starts but it's only a 25kn southerly, small change really imo...

Pharq, plenty worse than that, eh!

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That's an excellent video. I especially like that the narrator manages to be rude about several boats' sailing or navigation skills, the colonial backwardness of Hobart and does whole thing about the aboriginal genocide and Flinders Island.

 

Interesting how off guard the leaders were caught when the southerly filled in

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Well the sun is shining so it looks like spectators will be up in numbers this year. Bring on a great day out on Sydney Harbour. Good luck to all heading south. Especially Stacey Jackson who is heading for her 10th which will make her the 15th women to do so on the honour board.

 

See some of you on the water.

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Forecast through to Monday issued an hour or so ago.

 

Start inside the Harbour 10-15k NE rising to 15-20k outside the Heads and with parts 20-25k at times. Going soft to around 10-15k in front of the Southerly change.

 

The southerly change will go through Batmans Bay around 8.00pm and Jervis Bay at around 11.00pm. It will be 30-40k at first falling quickly to 25-30k and going SW. It won't get down to 20k until Gabo Is at around daybreak and remain above 20k further north up the race track all day Sunday.

 

Sunday south of Gabo/Bass Strait 15-20k SW and softening late Sunday night to 10-15K and then 5-10k Monday. On Monday a parking lot will appear off the NE coast of Tasmania and moving north/west to south/east. A NW change 10-20k appearing late Monday afternoon behind the parking lot along the Tasmanian Coast.

 

There may be a significant weather gate for leaders to negotiate somewhere along the Tasmanian Coast on Monday, exactly when and where, it is too early to tell.

 

Who ever can get out of the blocks first and stay there will secure a big advantage, particularly over the last 1/3 of the race.

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Who wants to play a game? - STUPIDEST SHIT about the SH in the mainstream media.

 

Sunrise reporter "they moved the mast back 20 metres" & "They are all about 100 feet"

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After 35 odd degrees C yesterday (in hobart), and a hot northerly blowing, we now have a well established southerly, rain, and the tempriture just dropped below 15, and is still falling. Make the most of the summer weather up there while it lasts!

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Word is Kristy is now jumping on board Comanche

Yeah I kicked her out this morning. All I can say is STARFISH.
Scanas I hope you didn't kick too hard...otherwise you will have to blow her up again.

 

You better zip out and buy that bottle of Mt Gay now :-)

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Word is Kristy is now jumping on board Comanche

 

 

...I'd hope so,,try and get some value from the investment.

 

...kenny says she'll be ...'on the grinders' :mellow:

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