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Singlehanded Transpac 2016

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The Singlehanded Transpac is a solo race from San Francisco to Hanalei Bay, Kauai, Hawaii. This edition of the race starts July 2, 2016. The Notice of Race is posted, and registration will soon be open. This will be the 20th edition of the race.

 

To kick off the race season, the Singlehanded Sailing Society (the Organizing Athority) will host a seminar series for racers and future race-hopefuls

 

 

TOPICS
  • November 12, 2015 – Power Management
  • December 10, 2015 – Rigging and Sails
  • January 14, 2016 – Emergency Rudders and other mechanics
  • February 11, 2016 – The return trip
  • March 10, 2016 – Communications at sea
  • April 16-17, 2016 – Cruise-In (location TBD)
  • May 12, 2016 – Provisioning and Medical Considerations
  • June 9, 2016 – Weather / Race Strategy

 

Anyone can attend. Everyone is invited. All seminars will be on the second Thursday of each month at the Oakland Yacht Club @ 7:30 pm.

 

 

http://sfbaysss.org/shtp

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can someone please let me know if they will be driving back to the sausalito area after any of these events. i would love to attend all of them but getting back to marin after them is nearly impossible without a car. Thanks!!

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OK, there has been some change of dates in the seminars, they are all now on Wednesdays.

 

December 9, 2015 – Rigging and Sails
January 13, 2016 – Emergency Rudders and other mechanics
February 10, 2016 – The return trip
March 9, 2016 – Communications at sea
April 16-17, 2016 – Cruise-In, Encinal YC Alameda
May 11, 2016 – Provisioning and Medical Considerations
June 8, 2016 – Weather / Race Strategy

 

All are at the Oakland YC at 7:30PM. The next seminar will feature Synthia Petroka on sail selection and repair, and Gilles Combrisson on rigging.

 

 

See http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2016/seminars/for updates and posted course material as it becomes available.

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What is the record for the most starters? I know there tends to be some attrition between now and the actual start.

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It says 32 on Jibeset.

 

See, I told people to sign up and 2 did!

What is the record for the most starters? I know there tends to be some attrition between now and the actual start.

 

 

Sure a few will drop but there are probably still a few lurkers too.

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Now it says 31

 

WATERMARK Thomson, Michael Pacific seacraft 31

PASSAGES Clark, David Olson 30

MAITREYA Mang, Jak Ingrid 38

ALTHEA Suwyn, Brett Cavalier 39

JACQUELINE Cunningham, Mike Freedom 30

NINA Macdonald, Robert Olson 29

WINDTRIP INFINITY Olsen, Todd J-boats j92s

OWL Woodworth, John Pacific seacraft 37

TIJD Husselman, Dirk Beneteau first 30jk

VENTUS Cartwright, Chris J/88

DARK HORSE Lemke, Shad Olson 30

SPRAY Calkins, Charles Class 40 - rodger martin/al fresco composites

BIOHAZARD Sammarcelli, Jerome Mini transat 6.50

MINIBAR Vergnolle, Yves Mini transat 6.50

LIBRA Saramite, Grégory Pogo2

SHAMAN Burden, Tom Cal 40

SEAZED ASSET Sprock, Vance Cal 40

HAUNANI Woods, Margie Catalina 34

TAZ!! Lythcott, George Express-27

KATO Senkyrik, Jiri Olson 30

TEMERITY Nabors, David Olson 34

SARABAND King, David Westsail 32

SILKYE Atwood, Foster Wyliecat 30

WHY I DIDNT MAKE ART TODAY Vorobey, Lilya Olson 30 ob

DOMINO Herrigel, David Wilderness 30

KYNNTANA Johnson, Carliane Freedom 38

FOXXFYRE Soderstrom, Doug Yamaha 33 sm

FAST LANE Bristol, Barry Catalina capri 30

DOLFIN Meanley, Bill Pacific seacraft 37

PAKALA Barry, Joe Express 37

MOUTON NOIR Jefferson, Michael Garcia passoa 47

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Anyone familiar with this Class 40 entered? First I've heard of it.

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Anyone familiar with this Class 40 entered? First I've heard of it.

 

Well he'd better get the Barn Door.

 

I think the rating for the Pogo 2 is entered wrong, Minis are like ~60, not 1.

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Ah, yes. This is the former Icarus that I believe is/was chartered from a Long Island school. Maritime Academy? Anyway, the boats been around the block a few times. It's just never been on the West Coast before.

 

Will be cool to see how it goes. Next fastest boat is an Express 37.

 

I don't think the Series Mini's rate 60. That sounds like a Proto rating. Series rate something more like the 90's.

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Is that Class 40 rating from NCPHRF? The local Class 40 rates that and doesn't use water ballast. If this one is going to use water Ballast in the SHTP I expect it to be a good bit lower.

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Is that Class 40 rating from NCPHRF? The local Class 40 rates that and doesn't use water ballast. If this one is going to use water Ballast in the SHTP I expect it to be a good bit lower.

It may be provisional -- that boat did not have a 2015 cert and the 2016 data is not yet up at YRA.org. I'm sure will all get vetted in good time.

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Hello all, Joining the thread. Spray is my boat. It is a 2007 Class 40 and is a "Vintage" boat under the class rules. The PHRF rating will be updated soon, there has been a delay while waiting for a new headsail and getting the water ballast system operational. Spray is currently located in Marina Del Rey where I have been competing in the PSSA races.

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Rating for -3 for Spray?

 

And I see three Minis there, going to be interesting.

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How many days would water ballast be useful on a typical PacCup. 2-3? Less if you want to sag south?

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It doesn't seem that water ballast would be so necessary, but it also seems to depend on the design. The Riptide 35's use water ballast and in conjunction have a much lighter bulb than otherwise, making then very light in the later stages. They have done very well in Pacific Cup (and Vic Maui) even though they rate similar (or faster?) than the Class 40's (without water ballast?)

 

My hunch is that the Class 40 has too much bulb to make the water ballast effective going to Hawaii.

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A Class 40 loaded up with water ballast will absolutely crush a non-ballasted one for the 1st few days and will be the same once off the wind. No-comparison in the amount you can press the boat with the full righting moment the boat and sail plan were designed for.

 

The big question is would it pay for the large rating hit......? Only a normal windy exit year the case could be made for water ballast but on a light exit year it would be to heavy of a rating penalty to overcome.

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Unfortunately the Classe 40 has dropped out, along with about 10 others, and the official registration count is now ~26.

 

Racers are excited to be gearing up for the start and the race to the Tree.

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Someday...really need to do this race again...

 

But a lot of bikes races to do before that happens

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We've had a few dropouts due to injury or personal reasons, you should look into chartering a boat!

 

This year more that ever the real race seems to be that of getting to the start line, not the finish.

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In every SH race at every level, that is so true...

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Looks like we will have 24 - 25 boats in 4 divisions, i.e. 1/3 have withdrawn from the peak registration. solosailor has opted to do the PacCup, what's up with that?

 

The pattern of the High seems to have settled in to its classic form.

 

Division splits going up soon. Scratch boat will be the E-37 PAKALA with a SHTPR of 85, but the Cal 40s will be the ones to beat (as per usual). Fastest rated sportboat is the J/88.

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Looks like we will have 24 - 25 boats in 4 divisions, i.e. 1/3 have withdrawn from the peak registration. solosailor has opted to do the PacCup, what's up with that?

 

The pattern of the High seems to have settled in to its classic form.

 

Division splits going up soon. Scratch boat will be the E-37 PAKALA with a SHTPR of 85, but the Cal 40s will be the ones to beat (as per usual). Fastest rated sportboat is the J/88.

 

Greg, are you doing Pac Cup? I know you were on the waitlist, but I don't see you on the Division assignments.

 

The high looks good now, but GFS is showing a gnarly cut off low on the 20th. Seems early enough to sort itself out before the start. Routings starting today go due west almost to Hawaii to clear over the top of the low.

 

In a perfect world the J/88 should beat the Express 37 to Hawaii. While SHTP doesn't use the DW ratings, the J/88 has a significantly faster DW rating.

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Well I'm not sure how good GFS is out to 12 days, and the race doesn't start for 18 days... Great circle might be the good bet, but there is more than plenty time for this to change.

 

Right now I have been pre-occupied with securing a full CNG tank! It looks like after more than 4 weeks of calling and asking, Svend's will pull through. I have some industrial grade methane on order as a backup though.

 

 

post-17756-0-28829400-1465936065_thumb.jpg

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OK Sailing Instructions and Divisions are UP.

 

post-17756-0-31446200-1466135282_thumb.jpg

 

Four divisions with names based on the Hawaiin gods Ku, Kane, Lono, Kanaloa.

 

In other words, faster racer/cruisers, bigger or slower, sporty-ish, and Westsail 32.

 

Scratch boat is the Express 37!

 

http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2016/

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2010 wasn't it, when Adrian won on the Olson 30 (overall and elapsed), wasn't the fastest boat Ronnie's Mount Gay 30?

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2010 wasn't it, when Adrian won on the Olson 30 (overall and elapsed), wasn't the fastest boat Ronnie's Mount Gay 30?

It looks like it. The MtGay30 had PHRF of 75.

 

see: http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2016/past-races/

 

and for entry stats : http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2016/shtp-entry-stats/

 

Having 24 actual starters is fairly respectable by modern standards.

 

No multis, and no sleds like Classe 40 or Open 50 as we have sometimes had.

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Adrian won on the Olson 30 (overall and elapsed), wasn't the fastest boat Ronnie's Mount Gay 30?

No I meant there is no "fast" rated boats, not what the fleet average was. MG30 & O30 are not that fast but the Olson is a proven handicap winner that can sail to it's rating shorthanded. There were many larger fast boats in most past races. No <50 PHRF this year.

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Stats are only as good as the data.... garbage in, garbage out - j/k. FYI, there were two female skippers in 2000: Anna Stockel (first to finish in Hal Roth's old water ballasted SC50 hull "Sundowner") and Terry McKelvey (2nd overall in her Cal 2-27 "Sensei").

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Adrian won on the Olson 30 (overall and elapsed), wasn't the fastest boat Ronnie's Mount Gay 30?

No I meant there is no "fast" rated boats, not what the fleet average was. MG30 & O30 are not that fast but the Olson is a proven handicap winner that can sail to it's rating shorthanded. There were many larger fast boats in most past races. No <50 PHRF this year.

 

I was thinking that the year Adrian won the fastest rated boat was even slower than the Express 37, but it wasn't. Close, but not slower.

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For 2000 - 2014, the 40 fastest boats by PHRF

 

2012 ALEX MEHRAN TRUTH OPEN 50 -123

2004 AL HUGHES DOGBARK CUSTOM 60 -72

2006 AL HUGHES DOGBARK CUSTOM 60 -72

2008 AL HUGHES DOGBARK CUSTOM 60 -58

2000 ANNA STOCKEL SUNDOWNER CUSTOM SANTA CRUZ 50 -22

2004 CHUCK BEAZELL JOE HUNTER 54 44

2000 CHARLES BEAZELL JOE HUNTER 54 47

2004 RYAN FINN SURFINN J/90 48

2006 LOU FREEMAN SEABIRD SWAN 51 61

2004 ERIK SCHWARTZ RUSALKA SANTA CRUZ 40 63

2004 MARK DEPPE ALCHERA J/120 65

2004 ROB MacFARLANE TIGER BEETLE N/M 45 65

2006 MARK DEPPE ALCHERA J/120 65

2006 ROB MacFARLANE TIGER BEETLE N/M 45 65

2002 LOU FREEMAN SEABIRD SWAN 51 66

2008 MARK DEPPE ALCHERA J/120 68

2002 ERIK SCHWARTZ RUSALKA SANTA CRUZ 40 75

2010 RONNIE SIMPSON WARRIOR'S WISH JUTSON 30 75

2002 MARK DEPPE ALCHERA J/120 77

2008 DON GRAY WARRIOR'S WISH JUTSON 30 78

2000 BARRY RUFF AXA PACIFIC WYLIE 39 81

2012 BRIAN VANDERZANDEN TURBO CAMPER HOBIE 33 84

2006 DWIGHT ODOM NA NA SAGA 43 87

2008 DWIGHT ODOM NA NA SAGA 43 87

2000 STEPHEN MANN TAWODI WYLIE 39 89

2008 WEN LIN WENLEMIR SWAN 47 91

2012 PETER HEIBERG SCARAMOUCHE V PALMER JOHNSON 50 92

2014 PETER HEIBERG SCARAMOUCHE V PJ49 92

2008 JAMES FAIR CHESAPEAKE OUTBOUND 46 93

2000 STEVE STEINBERG SOL MAN OLSON 30 96

2000 RON CORBIN STILL CRAZY OLSON 30 96

2000 DAVID BENNETT SPACE COWBOY HOBIE 33 96

2002 TONY CARR TEASE HOBIE 33 96

2004 JAMES GRAUL KOINONIA J/35 96

2012 JOHN LUBIMIR FLIGHT RISK QUEST 30 97

2004 FRANK ROSS PRANKSTER OLSON 30 99

2006 ANDY EVANS FOOLISH MUSE OLSON 30 99

2008 ERIC THOMAS POLAR BEAR OLSON 30 99

2010 ADRIAN JOHNSON IDEFIX OLSON 30 99

2012 ADRIAN JOHNSON IDEFIX OLSON 30 99

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Fastest boats of each year from 2000 - 2016. PHRF, not the SHTP rating

 

2000 ANNA STOCKEL SUNDOWNER CUSTOM SANTA CRUZ 50 -22

2002 LOU FREEMAN SEABIRD SWAN 51 66

2004 AL HUGHES DOGBARK CUSTOM 60 -72

2006 AL HUGHES DOGBARK CUSTOM 60 -72

2008 AL HUGHES DOGBARK CUSTOM 60 -58

2010 RONNIE SIMPSON WARRIOR'S WISH JUTSON 30 75

2012 ALEX MEHRAN TRUTH OPEN 50 -123

2014 PETER HEIBERG SCARAMOUCHE V PJ49 92

2016 JOE BARRY PAKALA E-37 69

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You can tell where the Olson's 30's rating sits!

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A little (GFS) birdie told me a tropical low may form west of Mexico around the 9th. That could be interesting for the fleet a few days later.

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A little (GFS) birdie told me a tropical low may form west of Mexico around the 9th. That could be interesting for the fleet a few days later.

 

 

we had a couple of those last year on the TPac. Probably messed up the High a bit - but the in-you-face impact was an atrocious cross swell for awhile.

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That tropical low does not look like fun to me.. Can't wait to see what it brings. I am sure I will try to come up with some sophisticated routing strategy to handle it that will all fall apart once I am out there :)

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This is such a great race. Some day...

 

Jonathan, you definitely need to do this race. How about 2018? Charter a boat, or ship Jeroboam. Be there or be square.

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This is such a great race. Some day...

Jonathan, you definitely need to do this race. How about 2018? Charter a boat, or ship Jeroboam. Be there or be square.

Charter sounds about right. We shall see.

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Race starts today at noon. Skippers excited about a likely fun quick trip to Paradise.

 

Scratch boat PAKALA looks very well set up. SARABAND is talked about as a favorite for the Kanaloa Division, and maybe the whole ball of wax. An experienced former racer and race chair was heard to predict it would be "one of the three Daves". Quien sabe?

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Was the start delayed? Light wind? Adverse current? At 1745 PDT the tracker shows the lead boat (Olson 29 NINA) 12 NM west of the G.G. Bridge (at 1836, 40 minutes in the future!?), ~15 NM from the start, for an average speed of 2.6 knots. Five boats at the back of the fleet are along the line between Point Bonita and Point Lobos (S.F.), just ~5.5 NM from the start (average speed 1 knot!?).

Wait, Olson 30 KATO just showed up further west, ~27 NM from the start (4.5 knot average?) but its tracker time shows 8:51 pm.

Oh, another boat just appeared (9:02 PM?), Catalina Capri 30 FAST LANE, ~24 NM from the start. And now one more near KATO, the Cavalier 39 ALTHEA at 6:15 pm (a realistic time at last). And yet another just appeared among the leaders, Mini Transat 6.50 MINIBAR at 6:27 PM, in 3rd, ~25 NM from the start (3,8 knot average, assuming a noon start). UPDATE: at 6:38 pm, Freedom 30 JACQUELINE in 3rd place.

Westsail 32 TORTUGA bringing up the rear, inside Point Bonita - at 2:28 PM(?), doing 7 knots(?). UPDATE: at 6:29pm, in 5th 6th, ~19 NM from start.

No updates posted anywhere by the race committee; here, official site, FB or Twitter?

I see that Michael Jefferson is racing again this year. He did it twenty years ago (1996) so he must be 66 years old now. I remember Shama suggesting that maybe we shouldn't publish one of his July 3rd reports, four days into the race - but we did:

Mike Jefferson chatting with ham Bill De La Mater: I have had a pleasant day, Bill,. I am running with a big 1/2 oz spinnaker up and 5-8 knots of apparent wind. I have had the DOORS and various blues albums on real LOUD and have been dancing naked in the cockpit. AH the pleasures of the sea! How are you doing, partner?


Aloha and bon voyage to all. Hope the tracker settles down.

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It looks like they've fixed the time stamps to be PST, but the trackers don't update at the same time so it is a bit tricky to know, what's what. It seems the tracker only updates every 4 hours.

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It looks like they've fixed the time stamps to be PST, but the trackers don't update at the same time so it is a bit tricky to know, what's what. It seems the tracker only updates every 4 hours.

 

So it's basically useless at this stage. Confirmed by trying the "Replay Control" feature. Wouldn't it make sense to update positions more often for the first and last 100 or 200 miles of the race?

 

Reminiscing again... The Internet was still a shiny new thing in 1996. Doug Vann and Walt Niemczura did a web site and tracker for the 1995 fully crewed L.A. TransPac, which I had followed closely. I jumped on a plane, met Doug and many others (Rudy Choy, Pete Melvin, Steve Fosset) and crewed on the delivery back to L.A. of the 76' catamaran Double Bullet II (1 of 5 guys). Doug's Hawaiian weather page had inspired my own collection of weather links, perhaps the first web page I ever created. Walt did the position "charts" for the 1996 Singlehanded TransPac; crude by today's standards, but effective. Good times.

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Tracker delays and lack of synchronization make this very unreliable to call but as of ~0300, 15 hours after the start, five boats were showing just barely past the Farallon Islands, only 28 NM from the G.G. Bridge. That's painfully slow! Mike Jefferson's MOUTON NOIR is among them.

At 0552 this Sunday morning, the front of the fleet is ~94 NM from the start, for an average speed of 5.2 knots.

 

Some reports from the racers have been posted: http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2016/news-feed/

FB: https://www.facebook.com/SF-Bay-Singlehanded-Sailing-Society-144608858913530/

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Not a surprise at all. The models clearly showed the synoptic breeze moving westward overnight. It seemed quite likely that some portion of the fleet (mostly the slower boats) wouldn't move west fast enough to catch the synoptic breeze and now they are bobbing around in very light breeze. Some of them may be sitting there for awhile too. The western group looks to be off in good breeze now.

 

Best I can tell the J/88 is leading, or at least very near the front. My pick for first to finish. Watch out for Giant Slayer (SC 27) on corrected time.

 

Tracker - Having 4 hour updates would be okay. Having updates that aren't synchronized would be okay. Having unsynchronized, 4 hour updates is a cluster.

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Not a surprise at all. The models clearly showed the synoptic breeze moving westward overnight. It seemed quite likely that some portion of the fleet (mostly the slower boats) wouldn't move west fast enough to catch the synoptic breeze and now they are bobbing around in very light breeze. Some of them may be sitting there for awhile too. The western group looks to be off in good breeze now.

 

Best I can tell the J/88 is leading, or at least very near the front. My pick for first to finish. Watch out for Giant Slayer (SC 27) on corrected time.

"synoptic breeze", eh? Does that mean heat induced light onshore wind? Just guessing.

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-125.49,36.99,3000/loc=-123.0597,37.747

 

wind_2016_July3a.png

 

This is one of my old favorite wind charts from U of H - this page has been around at least twenty years:

 

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/still.cgi?chnl=ir&domain=hus&res=4km&anim=no&size=large&banner=uhmet&satplat=goeswest&overlay=on

 

goeswest.overlays.4km.ir.hus.20160703120

 

 

Tracker - Having 4 hour updates would be okay. Having updates that aren't synchronized would be okay. Having unsynchronized, 4 hour updates is a cluster.

Fo shua dat, brah!

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Note the Tropical Depression in the SE corner. GFS has the low tracking NNW, right across the race track. Other models have it moving more westward. Could be somewhere between interesting, annoying (counter-swell), and dangerous.

 

Synoptic breeze is the other breeze. Not the sea breeze, but the steady northerly you see in earth.nullschool image. It doesn't have the diurnal variation of a sea breeze, but its distance from the coast does vary. The goal of every Hawaii race starting from SF Bay is to get to the synoptic breeze before nightfall. Clearly a lot of boats didn't make it this time.

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Note the Tropical Depression in the SE corner. GFS has the low tracking NNW, right across the race track. Other models have it moving more westward. Could be somewhere between interesting, annoying (counter-swell), and dangerous.

Tropical Storm Agatha: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2016/Tropical-Storm-Agatha

 

Interactive map

 

Two models out of six show a NW path?

 

ep201602_model.gif

 

ep201602_ensmodel.gif

 

 

Tropical Storm Blas looks more problematic though?

 

ep201603_model.gif

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Yeah, the GFS has the second depression plow right through where the the middle of the fleet should be, and then it's wake kills all the wind the rest of the way to Hawaii.

That would suck, but the GFS blows at predicting the paths of lows, especially a week out.

Does anyone have a good link to water temperature readings?

 

edit: found some- http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/

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Once again, the tracker's un-synchronized four hour intervals make it impossible to accurately determine relative positions, but it's pretty clear that the group of eight boats at the rear is ~168 NM behind the group who escaped the wind hole.

fleet_2016_July4a.png

The trailing group of eight, still struggling to catch the "synoptic breeze":

JACQUELINE at 2:56 AM, 93 NM from the start
MOUTON NOIR at 2:43 AM, 82 NM
TORTUGA at 2:32 AM, 72 NM
PATIENCE at 3:03 AM, 71 NM
OWL at 2:47 AM, 66 NM
SARABAND at 2:38 AM, 62 NM
ELIZABETH ANN at 3:08 AM, 61 NM
MINIBAR at 2:38 AM, 60 NM

Two boats among the leaders:

VENTUS at 3:05 AM, 264 NM from the start
HAUNANI at 2:33 AM, 215 NM

 

 

Approximate position of trailing boats: https://www.windyty.com/?37.560,-123.896,6

 

wind_2016_Jul4a.jpg

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All the boats moving well now. Ventus is leading and the most southern boat, but it was one of the slowest boats over the last 4 hours. Looks like more breeze for the northern boats. At this point I can't see that being south will have any benefit down the track. Hurricane Blas could make a big impact on the second half of the race though. Too far out to say for sure, but there are signs the fastest boats might make it over and in front of Blas into enhanced trade winds, while a lot of boats will end following Blas with crap wind and seas. I suppose worst case would be to be somewhere in between.

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Yeah, with Hurricane Blas approaching, sailing south of the rhumb line isn't where I would go. Five day forecast shows Blas at 20N, 135W next Saturday afternoon, 1,127 NM east of Hilo, downgraded to a tropical storm again.

 

Boats heading south of the rhumb line now include VENTUS, DOMINO, TAZ, KATO, SEAZED ASSET, NINA, TEMERITY, FAST LANE.

 

Here is an approximate rhumb line / tracker / Blas composite:

 

shtp_rhumb_line_2016_July4a.png

 

Too bad the tracker doesn't show the rhumb line... and optional weather forecast on the same chart.

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Ventus now pointing due west and making 10.8 knots. I like the move. Not a bad speed for a singlehanded 29 footer.

 

Nina, the Olson 29 is closest to Hawaii now. I think Pakala, the Express 37 and Seized Assets, the Cal 40 are close on distance in 2nd and 3rd.

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Hope these guys don't get caught in a hole......pulling into Kauai could be ugly if that second system lands on the islands as some of the models are suggesting......

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SHTP tracker: http://www.pinnacletracking.com/live/Map.aspx?shtp

 

I don't see Blas going near the islands in the five day forecast, which shows it at 22.5N, 141W next Monday morning at 0800 - about five degrees latitude (300 NM) south of where it appears on that stormsurfing.com page at +120 hours. And it's down to a Tropical Depression by then.

 

ep201602_5day_Jul6.gif

 

shtp_rhumb_line_2016_July6a.png

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I think he is referring to the low behind Blas.

 

Blas seems to be inclined to blow right through the middle of the SHTP fleet. Things will definitely get interesting in a few more days.

 

Blas aside, it looks like the wx is already getting funky with a High developing right over the top of the fleet. You can see the boats starting to scatter, searching for wind, where they've pretty much been on rails the last few days with little difference in speed between the fastest and slowest boats in the western group.

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based on the recent forecast - looks like it gets lighter for the next few days and the the tropical depression crashes the rhumbline. If forecasts are right - 30s, which means gusts to 40?

 

Too little, then too much...

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Looking at the five day forecast above, and the "WunderMap", I see it going from longitude -133.3W Saturday morning to 140.5W on Monday morning, which is ~3.5 degrees per day at that point, heading NW. Hanalei is 159.5W - nineteen degrees further west, and 19/3.5 = ~5.4 days beyond the five day forecast. None of the models I've seen show it going beyond ~148W, 32N EIGHT+ DAYS from now. That is ~100 NM north of the rhumb line but a long way off - hardly what I would call a few days? It could fizzle by then.

 

Does anyone have sources showing a more imminent threat to the fleet?

 

Correction: initial post was off by 5 degrees longitude - so Blas might cross the rhumb line a week from today?

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Are you referring to Blas or the next one?

 

Blas looks set to cut right across the fleet on the 10th/11th. I just did a route for Ventus and if he wanted to maximize speed he would see 25 knots and 3.5m seas passing over the top (passing in front) of Blas. But should/would a singlehander pass in front of dying hurricane? How much will he have to slow/divert to avoid passing in front? How accurate is the forecast track? Is a singlehander going to take any chance at all? I think that is the point. There is a hurricane a comin' and they need to figure out what to do about it, on their little boat, in the middle of the ocean, with imperfect information. Keep in mind they can't surf the web or talk about with anyone. They just have to figure out with same basic information.

 

It may fizzle, but for those out there right now, they have to start making decisions today, based on the information available today. They are too slow for a wait and see attitude when there is a major hurricane in the area.

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Are you referring to Blas or the next one?

 

Blas looks set to cut right across the fleet on the 10th/11th. I just did a route for Ventus and if he wanted to maximize speed he would see 25 knots and 3.5m seas passing over the top (passing in front) of Blas. But should/would a singlehander pass in front of dying hurricane? How much will he have to slow/divert to avoid passing in front? How accurate is the forecast track? Is a singlehander going to take any chance at all? I think that is the point. There is a hurricane a comin' and they need to figure out what to do about it, on their little boat, in the middle of the ocean, with imperfect information. Keep in mind they can't surf the web or talk about with anyone. They just have to figure out with same basic information.

 

It may fizzle, but for those out there right now, they have to start making decisions today, based on the information available today. They are too slow for a wait and see attitude when there is a major hurricane in the area.

 

So you're saying the five day forecast I posted earlier is WAY OFF? Because that shows Blas still ~560 NM from the rhumb line, and degraded to a Tropical Depression by then.

 

What sources are you looking at?

 

P.S. Here is a different perspective that looks sooner than I thought - swell and wind: http://forecasts.surfingmagazine.com/#place=42.293564192170095_-137.28515600000003_3_1641_height_none_satellite_-1

 

swell_2016_July6.gif

 

wind_2016_July6.gif

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SHTP Racer News: http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2016/category/racernews/

SHTP tracker: http://www.pinnacletracking.com/live/Map.aspx?shtp

 

Five day forecast for Hurricane Blas shows it 862 NM due East of Hanalei as a Tropical Depression, Wind Speed 25 mph (22 knots), Wind Gusts 35 mph (30 knots) - WunderMap:

 

shtp_rhumb_line_2016_July7a.png

 

 

Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
330 AM HST THU JUL 7 2016

 

The eventual track of the Blas remnant next week has implications as far as wind and weather in the Hawaiian islands, and the primary forecast models are so wildly different in their solutions, it's difficult to have much confidence in forecast details.

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