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Raked Aft\\

Patricia spooling up. C5

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This bitch is going to leave a mark!

 

Currently 175KTS gusts 215KTS!! Pressure 880 mm's of Merc! That's not many!

 

HurTrackPacific1.gif

 

hifloat3_None_anim.gif

 

Puerto Vallarta is gonna get a whacking... Hold on to your Margarita's

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From the forecast:

 

This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's

area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins.

 

496
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$
Forecaster Pasch

 

 

 

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This system is going to wreak havoc and kill a whole lot of people in Mexico before heading into the U.S. And making lots of floods happen next week

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This system is going to wreak havoc and kill a whole lot of people in Mexico before heading into the U.S. And making lots of floods happen next week

UPDATE- 0531HRS PDT. Patricia has been upgraded to the STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN PACIFIC BASINS. Central pressure was just listed at a nearly unbelievable 880mb. Patricia is expected to strengthen further with sustained winds as high as 210mph and gusts to 235mph...

 

This will be catastrophic for Mexico for sure. I agree with heavy rains in Texas. A low is forecast to develop near the Texas coast and that will draw in Patricia's moisture.

Patricia.jpg

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Jeebus - Patricia was a "moderate" Cat 4 last night... That had to be one hell of an evolution overnight. Holy crap.

Hope our amigos get to are in high ground.

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If Patricia strengthens as forecast then she will have achieved not just category 5 status, but F5 status on the Fujita scale (Yes, I know, its a hurricane not a tornado)...But think about it...An F4-5 that is 50-100 miles wide. Holy $hit.

FujitaScale.png

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Mark,

 

What are the expected storm surge with Patricia? As we've seen in the past with Katrina and Sandy, the surge can be just as devastating as the wind, if not more so.

 

Thanks.

 

Prayers and well wishes to all in her path. I hope everyone who can and should has already evacuated. This is going to produce a massive amount of damage and most likely the loss of human lives.

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Barra Navidad is in deep trouble, I hope that everyone got the hell out of there. ...

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No shit. 'Cuz I have a very bad feeling about this one.......

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"A terrain altering event"

Yeah, I caught that one. And I don't doubt it for a second.....

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"This system will have the potential to level concrete block buildings on landfall."

 

I didn't know that they could do that. In the Yucatan they use hollow blocks but there is a structural column cast in place every so often and a ring beam every so often. In that case it would have to blow the infill blocks out, or rack the whole deal and topple the columns which is hard to picture.

 

This will be a windfall (yeah I did that) for structural engineers/building officials/Simpson, etc. to see how stuff breaks.

 

I can honestly say that I would not be there to see it; and would abandon my boat to, one would have to presume, destruction. This sounds like hell is coming.

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Not to try and make light of this imminent catastrophe, but Cantore bust be creaming himself right now.

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?....

A weather guy on The Weather Channel. Tends to get very excited about extremely damaging weather events.

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Fortunately the coastline between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta is pretty uninhabited.

 

If Patti veers a bit north PV will be in the cross hairs.

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It's being reported now as 200+ mph, pressure under 26". Gonna be a bad one.

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I have seen 2-3 story buildings in the Caribbean built with poured reinforced columns and headers in a grid. The floors are then poured over corrugated tin raised on scaffolds to tie everything together. Cinder block walls with doors and windows are used as infill between the columns but their hollow chambers are not filled in the belief that in the event of a Patricia scale storm the cinder block walls can blow out and spare the bulk of the building.

 

I'm still convinced that Hugo was way stronger than it was ever given credit for as it dwindled over St Croix for a whole day. It finally headed off to the NE and when it went over Culebra blew out the old US Navy style wind instrument (built strong as one would imagine) on the old hospital bldg after it pegged the needle at 185 KNOTS! A big sailing ketch (115') anchored out in Bahia Honda (at the time reputed to be the best Hurricane Hole in the Caribbean) had a state of the art digital wind meter at the masthead and the crew watched it reset the display at 100 knots and then in the peak of the storm hover around 100 + 90 knots and then reset again and it recorded 100 + 100 + 18 knots before blowing up the instrument head when the mast head hit the water in a knockdown! 218 KNOTS!

 

It seems like the damage in St Croix and the subsequent damage in Charleston from Hugo meant that the conditions actually recorded and damage done in the tiny little hellhole that Culebra got pummeled into went by the wayside.

 

295868613_o.jpg

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Latest models are predicting a direct strike on Manzanillo. 9 -12 feet of storm surge? Mien gott.

9-12 seems very light. With a central pressure of 880mb I would go 20+ easy, especially for the NW side of the harbor.

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Latest models are predicting a direct strike on Manzanillo. 9 -12 feet of storm surge? Mien gott.

9-12 seems very light. With a central pressure of 880mb I would go 20+ easy, especially for the NW side of the harbor.

 

 

Holy hell. And I thought the weather-babe was exaggerating.

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What is the landscape like in that area? 20+ foot storm surge could do unseen before damage to a low-lying terrain, especially when coupled with 200 mph winds and 6 inches of rain. If it climbs in elevation quickly, like other areas along the western Pacific, it won't be quite as bad, but still not good at all.

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This looks pretty scary. Was down in PV last week and while I'm not an expert, the topography of the area just doesn't seem well set up for a storm like this (not that anywhere is).

 

Thanks to Mark Michaelson for taking the time to respond to my email early this morning when I asked him for his thoughts since I've got a friend down there. Appreciate all the updates he does during these storms.

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The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA aircraft data is 879 mb (25.96 inches).

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I got an e-mail early from a sometime Anarchist FastRobert that has been doing a gig at PV captaining a motor yacht of some size. This was from him close to 10AM:

 

We have been advised to expect power to be cut in 2 1/2 hours. They are evacuating beach front hotels & condos. We have our nice concrete room with no windows selected on our 2 nd floor. The trend line is still south which is only theoretical. There arent any models that have ever run the scheme of 200 knots vs the Sierra Madre. mb's expected sub 880's.

This thing gained more than 90 knots in past 24. Will keep sending reports. Gut check, with very nervous family already.

 

Godspeed for you, your family and friends at PV Bob.

 

He will keep us updated the best he can until the power is gone or gone into hiding which is a prudent thing to do but he's no dummy weather wise.

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Surfing google earth it appears the small city of San Patricio, Just north of Manzanillo, is in a bad spot.

 

Hoping word has helped a full evacuation. it looks to be at sea level.

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Was in Manzanillo on a Gringo Bingo cruise. I remember the topography being pretty rugged. That's probably good and bad, as the populace can be crammed into the limited coastal plain. However, high land is failry close.

Either way, this is going to be bad. Time to get out the checkbook for the Catholic Charities.

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Scary indeed. Hope all will be ok down there.

 

Patricia_zpsqpzlhfka.jpg

i've never seen black...................

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I got an e-mail early from a sometime Anarchist FastRobert that has been doing a gig at PV captaining a motor yacht of some size. This was from him close to 10AM:

 

We have been advised to expect power to be cut in 2 1/2 hours. They are evacuating beach front hotels & condos. We have our nice concrete room with no windows selected on our 2 nd floor. The trend line is still south which is only theoretical. There arent any models that have ever run the scheme of 200 knots vs the Sierra Madre. mb's expected sub 880's.

This thing gained more than 90 knots in past 24. Will keep sending reports. Gut check, with very nervous family already.

 

Godspeed for you, your family and friends at PV Bob.

 

He will keep us updated the best he can until the power is gone or gone into hiding which is a prudent thing to do but he's no dummy weather wise.

Hey Max..is that Mulder down there?

 

I hope to heck the local authorities made some proper preparations...but know that they didn't.

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Was in Manzanillo on a Gringo Bingo cruise. I remember the topography being pretty rugged. That's probably good and bad, as the populace can be crammed into the limited coastal plain. However, high land is failry close.

 

Either way, this is going to be bad. Time to get out the checkbook for the Catholic Charities.

Mountains are bad for mudslides and flash floods, given the amount of rain forecast.

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Fuck. Barra de Navidad looks like it will take a pounding. It's a coastal resort town with a funky atmosphere. It's built on a sand spit that is quite narrow at times. The hotels and restaurants on the seaward side have taken significant damage in minor nearby hurricanes. Lots of boats use the Barra lagoon for a hurricane hole.

 

Hope the French Baker is safe...

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The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA aircraft data is 879 mb (25.96 inches).

by my rough calculations, that's enough to raise the sea level 4 feet due to pressure alone. Add the massive pileup of wind-driven water...

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Holy shit. This is going to be gnarly.

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I got an e-mail early from a sometime Anarchist FastRobert that has been doing a gig at PV captaining a motor yacht of some size. This was from him close to 10AM:

 

We have been advised to expect power to be cut in 2 1/2 hours. They are evacuating beach front hotels & condos. We have our nice concrete room with no windows selected on our 2 nd floor. The trend line is still south which is only theoretical. There arent any models that have ever run the scheme of 200 knots vs the Sierra Madre. mb's expected sub 880's.

This thing gained more than 90 knots in past 24. Will keep sending reports. Gut check, with very nervous family already.

 

Godspeed for you, your family and friends at PV Bob.

 

He will keep us updated the best he can until the power is gone or gone into hiding which is a prudent thing to do but he's no dummy weather wise.

Hey Max..is that Mulder down there?

 

I hope to heck the local authorities made some proper preparations...but know that they didn't.

 

Nah. I saw Mr. Mulder last weekend fixing up the tiller on Kodiak for few wraps of carbon and the template for the new carbon tiller. We took a pass on Closer for fixing shit like that. FastRobert is an old, old great friend of mine. Great racer and was on Newt's programs like Admiral's Cup etc I believe. He's there now and giving me a play by play. Apparently he got a lifetime flick for getting the boys the errors of their ways. A badge of honor eh? lol.

 

From FR about half an hour ago (paraphrased of course): I think the local and National authorities really kicked into action yesterday giving notice of school closures today, plus transport and safety planning. I think maybe they are making up for being caught somewhat flatfooted last year in Cabo.

 

Looking at CNN etc it likes like that PV will be right in the pipe.

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I have some memories from Hugo from listening to things on the ham/ssb as they happened. One memorable one was the neighborhood of "Judith's Fancy" or similar calling for help because they were being attacked by looters and then the USVI national guard started looting too :o

Another one was a charter boat that was getting a call patched through to the company's office in the states. They were reporting they lost the dinghy because they judged Saint Thomas unsafe and took off in the charter boat to ride the storm out in the open ocean! The charter company thought they were DEAD and was overjoyed the dinghy was the only casualty. We flew over Charleston later and the pine forests looked like an atomic bomb had gone off.

I have seen 2-3 story buildings in the Caribbean built with poured reinforced columns and headers in a grid. The floors are then poured over corrugated tin raised on scaffolds to tie everything together. Cinder block walls with doors and windows are used as infill between the columns but their hollow chambers are not filled in the belief that in the event of a Patricia scale storm the cinder block walls can blow out and spare the bulk of the building.

 

I'm still convinced that Hugo was way stronger than it was ever given credit for as it dwindled over St Croix for a whole day. It finally headed off to the NE and when it went over Culebra blew out the old US Navy style wind instrument (built strong as one would imagine) on the old hospital bldg after it pegged the needle at 185 KNOTS! A big sailing ketch (115') anchored out in Bahia Honda (at the time reputed to be the best Hurricane Hole in the Caribbean) had a state of the art digital wind meter at the masthead and the crew watched it reset the display at 100 knots and then in the peak of the storm hover around 100 + 90 knots and then reset again and it recorded 100 + 100 + 18 knots before blowing up the instrument head when the mast head hit the water in a knockdown! 218 KNOTS!

 

It seems like the damage in St Croix and the subsequent damage in Charleston from Hugo meant that the conditions actually recorded and damage done in the tiny little hellhole that Culebra got pummeled into went by the wayside.

 

295868613_o.jpg

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Was in Manzanillo on a Gringo Bingo cruise. I remember the topography being pretty rugged. That's probably good and bad, as the populace can be crammed into the limited coastal plain. However, high land is fairly close.

 

Either way, this is going to be bad. Time to get out the checkbook for the Catholic Charities.

Mountains are bad for mudslides and flash floods, given the amount of rain forecast.

 

 

Too true. Forecast is for more than a foot of rain in 24 hours. Damn. Hope everybody is out of the arroyos.

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One cruiser is planning to ride out the storm on her boat in the marina in Barra de Navidad.
The one good thing is that Patricia's radius of hurricane-force winds is quite narrow.

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The very LAST place I would want to be is on the water.

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One cruiser is planning to ride out the storm on her boat in the marina in Barra de Navidad.

The one good thing is that Patricia's radius of hurricane-force winds is quite narrow.

Darwin Award. RIP.

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One cruiser is planning to ride out the storm on her boat in the marina in Barra de Navidad.

The one good thing is that Patricia's radius of hurricane-force winds is quite narrow.

 

Wow..I hope all make it through, but I guess Darwin's going to capitalize as well. I'd imagine water just 'foams out' at ~120 or so.

 

Any more word from F.R.??

 

Category Sustained Winds Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds

1 74-95 mph

64-82 kt

119-153 km/h Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

2 96-110 mph

83-95 kt

154-177 km/h Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

3

(major) 111-129 mph

96-112 kt

178-208 km/h Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

4

(major) 130-156 mph

113-136 kt

209-251 km/h Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

5

(major) 157 mph or higher

137 kt or higher

252 km/h or higher Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

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She wont be on the water long Guitar.

 

Hey I have an old buddy in Barra, Lalo Neltner, blues singer and guitar player. Anyone there?

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I would find me a east facing cave to crawl into up about 2000 ft on a rock mountain.

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.

 

The hardest thing,,,,other than being there,,, is the damn quietude.

 

I was wondering why they don't have a description for 200 mph wiwinds, but I guess here's just not much left.

 

Since it's said that primary intensity will be a narrow band,,, but what sort of range will be receiving more than 157??

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I think entire hurricane force winds are about 60 mi diameter. Super powerfull, but small in size. Still plenty dangerous.

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.

 

The hardest thing,,,,other than being there,,, is the damn quietude.

 

I was wondering why they don't have a description for 200 mph wiwinds, but I guess here's just not much left.

 

Since it's said that primary intensity will be a narrow band,,, but what sort of range will be receiving more than 157??

 

 

Here is what the weather service said to expect from Katrina:

 

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

 

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

 

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES

AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

 

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING

INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

 

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

 

Above 200 expect....

 

Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated. Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters (109 yds); trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur.

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.

 

..any update on the actual hit-point and path yet?

 

I've long admired the simple lives down there,,, not so much at times like this,but there still is an amazing simple beauty ,,, so long as they can avoid loss of life as best possible, it's often just a matter of collecting a new set of clapping and roof panels.

 

I sure hope this thing skirts a major population.

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I have seen 2-3 story buildings in the Caribbean built with poured reinforced columns and headers in a grid. The floors are then poured over corrugated tin raised on scaffolds to tie everything together. Cinder block walls with doors and windows are used as infill between the columns but their hollow chambers are not filled in the belief that in the event of a Patricia scale storm the cinder block walls can blow out and spare the bulk of the building.

 

I'm still convinced that Hugo was way stronger than it was ever given credit for as it dwindled over St Croix for a whole day. It finally headed off to the NE and when it went over Culebra blew out the old US Navy style wind instrument (built strong as one would imagine) on the old hospital bldg after it pegged the needle at 185 KNOTS! A big sailing ketch (115') anchored out in Bahia Honda (at the time reputed to be the best Hurricane Hole in the Caribbean) had a state of the art digital wind meter at the masthead and the crew watched it reset the display at 100 knots and then in the peak of the storm hover around 100 + 90 knots and then reset again and it recorded 100 + 100 + 18 knots before blowing up the instrument head when the mast head hit the water in a knockdown! 218 KNOTS!

 

It seems like the damage in St Croix and the subsequent damage in Charleston from Hugo meant that the conditions actually recorded and damage done in the tiny little hellhole that Culebra got pummeled into went by the wayside.

 

295868613_o.jpg

For an on-the-ground (water) description of living through Hugo, and by extension C5 hurricanes, check out "The Heart of the Storm- the night the boats flew" by Jack Petith, available as an e book for $5.99 here: http://www.dreameagles.info/HOS/

 

I guarantee that you would not consider "riding it out" after reading that. It is also a well written look at old skool OSTAR's, Dick Newick tri's, and life in the Islands back then.

 

No I'm not Jack, don't know him.

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUEP5+shtml/232328.shtml

 

000

WTPZ65 KNHC 232328

TCUEP5

 

HURRICANE PATRICIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015

625 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

 

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST

OF MEXICO WITH 165-MPH WINDS...

 

Satellite images indicate that the center of the eye of Patricia

made landfall at approximately 615 PM CDT...2315 UTC...along the

coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala. This position is also

about 55 miles...85 km...west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The

maximum winds were estimated to be 165 mph...270 km/h.

 

 

SUMMARY OF 615 PM...2315 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.4N 105.0W

ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

 

$$

Forecaster Blake/Stewart

 

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she looks to be coming ashore in pretty baron land. some small coastal towns and lots of croplands.

 

i think the loss of life will be on the low side given the severity of the storm...

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she looks to be coming ashore in pretty baron land. some small coastal towns and lots of croplands.

 

i think the loss of life will be on the low side given the severity of the storm...

 

I am a spritual, not a religious person, but Godspeed and Prayers for all who are in harms way....

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One cruiser is planning to ride out the storm on her boat in the marina in Barra de Navidad.

The one good thing is that Patricia's radius of hurricane-force winds is quite narrow.

Isn't that like the epicenter of where patricia is going ashore???!!

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Isn't that like the epicenter of where patricia is going ashore???!!

 

It went in in the area of Chamela, some 40 miles NW of Barra. Fortunately (??) the max winds were limited to a fairly small area, so Barra may have missed the worst of it. That said much of Barra is a broad sand spit, and was seriously damaged in a minor 'cane just a few years ago. Unfortunately, the French Baker's store/bakery was on that spit. Do hope he made it this time.

 

I am worried about any boats in the lagoon. Boats there drag in heavy evening breezes 'cause its all just a mud bottom.

 

Haven't heard from any friends in the region. PV shut down electricity in the afternoon. Won't likely hear for a few days.

 

Was rough getting any info from La Paz last year with Odille, and I don't expect any better this year from Patricia.

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Let's hope they're okay - but Barra is in the quadrant of highest winds right now. And from images I've seen from further south - it's not good.

 

Barra beneath the dot. This is what it looked like two hours ago:

 

post-18173-0-14558600-1445653495_thumb.jpg

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I really can not think of a f5 storm of this size. Asphalt roads are sucked into the air. Houses are blown away, contents of basements sucked out and only people in storm cellers are safe ( if they are on hi ground). This is nightmares in real time.

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I had an e-mail from FB in PV.. They dodged the bullet at PV as this is it's a intensive but small storm globally. I can't talk about the actual landfall. Between PV and Maz? Anyhoodles - watching the Jays/Royals game

Nite.

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I have seen 2-3 story buildings in the Caribbean built with poured reinforced columns and headers in a grid. The floors are then poured over corrugated tin raised on scaffolds to tie everything together. Cinder block walls with doors and windows are used as infill between the columns but their hollow chambers are not filled in the belief that in the event of a Patricia scale storm the cinder block walls can blow out and spare the bulk of the building.

 

I'm still convinced that Hugo was way stronger than it was ever given credit for as it dwindled over St Croix for a whole day. It finally headed off to the NE and when it went over Culebra blew out the old US Navy style wind instrument (built strong as one would imagine) on the old hospital bldg after it pegged the needle at 185 KNOTS! A big sailing ketch (115') anchored out in Bahia Honda (at the time reputed to be the best Hurricane Hole in the Caribbean) had a state of the art digital wind meter at the masthead and the crew watched it reset the display at 100 knots and then in the peak of the storm hover around 100 + 90 knots and then reset again and it recorded 100 + 100 + 18 knots before blowing up the instrument head when the mast head hit the water in a knockdown! 218 KNOTS!

 

It seems like the damage in St Croix and the subsequent damage in Charleston from Hugo meant that the conditions actually recorded and damage done in the tiny little hellhole that Culebra got pummeled into went by the wayside.

 

295868613_o.jpg

For an on-the-ground (water) description of living through Hugo, and by extension C5 hurricanes, check out "The Heart of the Storm- the night the boats flew" by Jack Petith, available as an e book for $5.99 here: http://www.dreameagles.info/HOS/

 

I guarantee that you would not consider "riding it out" after reading that. It is also a well written look at old skool OSTAR's, Dick Newick tri's, and life in the Islands back then.

 

No I'm not Jack, don't know him.

Jack Petith's book looks great, thanks for the tip! Cheers.

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How is this going to hit those of us near the water in Houston, Tx? In the Pasadena area?

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http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-hurricane-patricia-live-updates-htmlstory.html


Hurricane Patricia makes landfall with 165 mph winds
Hurricane Patricia hit land at 6:15 p.m. Central time, about 55 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm carried maximum sustained winds of 165 mph when it made landfall, the hurricane center said.

The head of Mexico's water commission put landfall slightly earlier, at 5:40 p.m., and said the storm first hit a town in Jalisco called Emiliano Zapata.


https://www.google.com/maps/@19.3857574,-104.9974383,11.75z

A TV report said it hit first at Pérula (pop. 661), about ~15 miles further north:

https://www.google.com/maps/@19.5896429,-105.1261771,14z

 

https://twitter.com/hashtag/patricia?f=videos&vertical=default&src=hash

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I have seen 2-3 story buildings in the Caribbean built with poured reinforced columns and headers in a grid. The floors are then poured over corrugated tin raised on scaffolds to tie everything together. Cinder block walls with doors and windows are used as infill between the columns but their hollow chambers are not filled in the belief that in the event of a Patricia scale storm the cinder block walls can blow out and spare the bulk of the building.

 

I'm still convinced that Hugo was way stronger than it was ever given credit for as it dwindled over St Croix for a whole day. It finally headed off to the NE and when it went over Culebra blew out the old US Navy style wind instrument (built strong as one would imagine) on the old hospital bldg after it pegged the needle at 185 KNOTS! A big sailing ketch (115') anchored out in Bahia Honda (at the time reputed to be the best Hurricane Hole in the Caribbean) had a state of the art digital wind meter at the masthead and the crew watched it reset the display at 100 knots and then in the peak of the storm hover around 100 + 90 knots and then reset again and it recorded 100 + 100 + 18 knots before blowing up the instrument head when the mast head hit the water in a knockdown! 218 KNOTS!

 

It seems like the damage in St Croix and the subsequent damage in Charleston from Hugo meant that the conditions actually recorded and damage done in the tiny little hellhole that Culebra got pummeled into went by the wayside.

 

295868613_o.jpg

For an on-the-ground (water) description of living through Hugo, and by extension C5 hurricanes, check out "The Heart of the Storm- the night the boats flew" by Jack Petith, available as an e book for $5.99 here: http://www.dreameagles.info/HOS/

 

I guarantee that you would not consider "riding it out" after reading that. It is also a well written look at old skool OSTAR's, Dick Newick tri's, and life in the Islands back then.

 

No I'm not Jack, don't know him.

Jack Petith's book looks great, thanks for the tip! Cheers.

 

 

Never knew that Jack Petith wrote a book, but I'm going to read it. Thanks. I knew Jack on St Croix well before Hugo.

I saw a couple of 100 knot hurricanes on St Croix and they left an impression. It's very hard for me to picture one with the force of Hugo.or Patricia.

Is it my imagination or is this hurricane way out of season for Mexico?

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Late October is kinda late for Mexi chubascos. But then again, we just had a tropical (and deadly poisonous) sea snake wash ashore in Ventura the other day. The water's still warm, and I expect a lotta more wierd shit happening in the Eastern Pacific in the next year or so....

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This bitch is going to leave a mark!

 

Currently 175KTS gusts 215KTS!! Pressure 880 mm's of Merc! That's not many!

 

HurTrackPacific1.gif

 

hifloat3_None_anim.gif

 

 

...and what's up with Olaf??

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...and what's up with Olaf??

Heading NNE into lower SSTs and more shear.

 

                 * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  OLAF        EP192015  10/24/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   105    99    88    78    67    51    40    29    22   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        27    31    30    29    25    19    19    15    16     9     8    10     9
SST (C)         27.4  27.2  27.1  27.0  27.0  26.8  26.6  26.3  26.0  25.8  25.5  25.5  25.5
LAND (KM)        953   971   994  1022  1053  1131  1224  1350  1507  1641  1727  1735  1693
LAT (DEG N)     18.4  19.1  19.7  20.3  20.8  21.8  22.7  23.6  24.5  25.3  25.8  26.0  26.1
LONG(DEG W)    145.8 145.6 145.3 145.1 144.8 144.2 143.5 142.5 141.2 140.1 139.4 139.4 139.9
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     6     6     6     6     6     7     7     5     2     2     2
HEAT CONTENT      13     8     5     4     2     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  5/  8      CX,CY:   1/  8
  T-12 MAX WIND: 105            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  670  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   6.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

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Just heard from a friend in Puerto Vallarta - Paradise Village Marina. All is well there. The mountains did their job and kept the worst of Patricia away. PV saw rain but "no wind and no surge" according to his note. No other details forthcoming, but at least for Banderas Bay, sounds like none needed.

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Report from FastRobert early this morning:

 

All very good for us in PV. A long night of heavy rain, but very little wind locally. Protected once again in Banderas Bay. Thanks for watching. We see photos of flooding inland in Guadalajara.

 

PV dodged the bullet I guess

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Luckiest people on the fuking planet today........

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I got to know Jack pretty well when he was sort of coaching us for a Tran-At race. He was somewhat of a legend for his singlehanded success in his Newick Native 'NAGA' in the Route Du Rhum and OSTAR. He spoke French and was well accepted in the French offshore multihull community.

 

He gave me a copy of his manuscript for the Hugo book and asked if I had any suggestions. Seems that the published version had been re-dacted heavily and names changed or removed entirely. Wish I still had the original!

 

Great sailor and mentor and truly 'sailed to the sound of a different drummer'. Here is an website he kept of some of his cruising adventures. Not been updated recently though, too bad. I think I had posted a photo of his 'Mango Mama' here on SA at one point, I'll leave it up to you this time to find the photo.

 

http://www.trimaran-naga.com/

 

Here is Jack in fine form...

 

4A.jpg

 

 

 

I have seen 2-3 story buildings in the Caribbean built with poured reinforced columns and headers in a grid. The floors are then poured over corrugated tin raised on scaffolds to tie everything together. Cinder block walls with doors and windows are used as infill between the columns but their hollow chambers are not filled in the belief that in the event of a Patricia scale storm the cinder block walls can blow out and spare the bulk of the building.

 

I'm still convinced that Hugo was way stronger than it was ever given credit for as it dwindled over St Croix for a whole day. It finally headed off to the NE and when it went over Culebra blew out the old US Navy style wind instrument (built strong as one would imagine) on the old hospital bldg after it pegged the needle at 185 KNOTS! A big sailing ketch (115') anchored out in Bahia Honda (at the time reputed to be the best Hurricane Hole in the Caribbean) had a state of the art digital wind meter at the masthead and the crew watched it reset the display at 100 knots and then in the peak of the storm hover around 100 + 90 knots and then reset again and it recorded 100 + 100 + 18 knots before blowing up the instrument head when the mast head hit the water in a knockdown! 218 KNOTS!

 

It seems like the damage in St Croix and the subsequent damage in Charleston from Hugo meant that the conditions actually recorded and damage done in the tiny little hellhole that Culebra got pummeled into went by the wayside.

 

295868613_o.jpg

For an on-the-ground (water) description of living through Hugo, and by extension C5 hurricanes, check out "The Heart of the Storm- the night the boats flew" by Jack Petith, available as an e book for $5.99 here: http://www.dreameagles.info/HOS/

 

I guarantee that you would not consider "riding it out" after reading that. It is also a well written look at old skool OSTAR's, Dick Newick tri's, and life in the Islands back then.

 

No I'm not Jack, don't know him.

 

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.

 

....incredibly lucky result! :rolleyes: .......

 

 

Why Hurricane Patricia Didn't Cause Epic Damage
http://time.com/4086096/hurricane-patricia-damage-explainer-...

 

 

Hurricane Patricia—the strongest hurricane ever recorded—made landfall on Friday without causing the catastrophic damage that many had anticipated. That lack of destruction is in large part due to the storm’s record winds staying confined to a small area and hitting a relatively unpopulated region.

“The amount of damage is going to be entirely dependent on where the storm hits,” said Sean Sublette, a meteorologist at Climate Central. “If it had been a more heavily populated area, we’d be having a much different conversation.”

The storm made landfall near Cuixmala, a luxury retreat in a sparsely populated ocean reserve, early Friday evening with winds of around 165 miles per hour. But the storm’s strongest winds didn’t extend much beyond 15 miles of its eye. The nearest city Manzanillo, which has a population of more than 100,000, is located more than 50 miles away.

Hurricane devastation is often due more to a combination of unfortunate circumstances rather than the sheer size of the storm. New Orleans, for instance, only sustained category 1 or 2 level winds during Hurricane Katrina but the storm caused a high “storm surge”—when elevated waters get pushed onto land by the wind—which ultimately led to much of the devastating flooding. Failed levees and neighborhoods located below sea level only contributed to the problem. Damage due to Hurricane Sandy was also largely the result of a high storm surge.

And while Hurricane Patricia avoided the most populated places along the coast, experts said that the storm had caused widespread damage in the area it did hit, including mud slides, flooding and power outages. Officials in the more densely populated areas, like tourist haven Puerto Vallarta, also appeared to follow preparation practices that would diminish the chances of injuries or death.

While the damage caused by Patricia may not scratch the record books, its strength certainly will. The storm’s winds reached 200 miles per hour Friday before making landfall.

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The storm made landfall near Cuixmala, a luxury retreat in a sparsely populated ocean reserve, early Friday evening with winds of around 165 miles per hour. But the storm’s strongest winds didn’t extend much beyond 15 miles of its eye. Cuixmala is an exclusive retreat catering to wealthy visitors like Bill Gates, Madonna and Tom Cruise.

 

It's probably too early to determine whether or not kharma took a last-minute aim at such an auspicious target, but we can dream can't we?

Seriously, even mega-resorts like Cuixmala can't exist without its workers - the vast majority of them locals. Let's hope they didn't become unlucky statistics of an otherwise "lucky" storm track.

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Hurricane Patricia made landfall about 17 miles north of La Manzanilla, Jalisco, Mexico. It is a small fishing village of about 1,500 people, where we have spent 3-4 weeks each year for the last 15 years. Amazingly there have been no fatalities, and the predicted 20 foot storm surge never made it into Tenacatita Bay, although the surge did pass through the first floor of many homes and businesses. The headland to the SW of town apparently blocked much of the counter-clockwise wind force (predicted at 165 mph), but there is still much damage. Power is being restored, and there is now some erratic cell phone service so we have been able to communicate with local friends and business owners. They dodged a bullet.

 

Daniel who runs the message board below, and is my sunset tequila buddy was interviewed on CNN. There are some amazing photographs of the damage on the message board.

 

http://members5.boardhost.com/lamanzanilla/msg/1445852923.html

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Strike Two. . .

 

Barra de Navidad

The 215 meter / 705 foot long, 71665 dwt (dead weight tons or metric tons or 2200 pounds) bulk carrier Los Llanitos ran aground in Pacific Ocean near Barra de Navidad, Mexico. The Los Llanitos had left Manzanillo one day before Hurricane Patricia approached, but had been blown ashore unable to withstand the strong winds by the hurricane. The bulker went ashore and sustained severe hull damage as it’s hull dragged along the rocky shoreline. The engine room and several sections of the hold suffered water ingress. Fuel tanks were also ruptured releasing pollution along the shore. Authorities were alerted and a Mexican Navy helicopter was dispatched to the scene. The helicopter rescued 19 of the 27 crew on board with the remaining crew voluntarily staying. No reports of injuries. Reports state the vessel was directed by port authorities to depart rather be in port when the hurricane made landfall. Later reports state the Los Llanitos has suffered a large crack in the hull which may result in the vessel being scrapped.

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Hurricane Patricia made landfall about 17 miles north of La Manzanilla, Jalisco, Mexico. It is a small fishing village of about 1,500 people, where we have spent 3-4 weeks each year for the last 15 years. Amazingly there have been no fatalities, and the predicted 20 foot storm surge never made it into Tenacatita Bay, although the surge did pass through the first floor of many homes and businesses. The headland to the SW of town apparently blocked much of the counter-clockwise wind force (predicted at 165 mph), but there is still much damage. Power is being restored, and there is now some erratic cell phone service so we have been able to communicate with local friends and business owners. They dodged a bullet.

 

Daniel who runs the message board below, and is my sunset tequila buddy was interviewed on CNN. There are some amazing photographs of the damage on the message board.

 

http://members5.boardhost.com/lamanzanilla/msg/1445852923.html

.

 

....incredible. amazing. Those folks must have been doing something right! :blink:

 

...thanks for the local details. Is there any direct linkys for the photo feeds?

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Hurricane Patricia made landfall about 17 miles north of La Manzanilla, Jalisco, Mexico. It is a small fishing village of about 1,500 people, where we have spent 3-4 weeks each year for the last 15 years. Amazingly there have been no fatalities, and the predicted 20 foot storm surge never made it into Tenacatita Bay, although the surge did pass through the first floor of many homes and businesses. The headland to the SW of town apparently blocked much of the counter-clockwise wind force (predicted at 165 mph), but there is still much damage. Power is being restored, and there is now some erratic cell phone service so we have been able to communicate with local friends and business owners. They dodged a bullet.

 

Daniel who runs the message board below, and is my sunset tequila buddy was interviewed on CNN. There are some amazing photographs of the damage on the message board.

 

http://members5.boardhost.com/lamanzanilla/msg/1445852923.html

.

 

....incredible. amazing. Those folks must have been doing something right! :blink:

 

...thanks for the local details. Is there any direct linkys for the photo feeds?

 

I'm blinded by with trying to get the details. . . I think that you need to wade through the linked message board that I posted. It's great stuff.

 

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the force of nature , 10 second video of 'during' :mellow: ....... https://www.facebook.com/birularadio/videos/vb.1528711007348069/1682844978601337/?type=2&theater

 

....'after' shots.. https://www.facebook.com/VisitLaManzanilla/photos_stream

 

 

...some hurricane humor,,,not so funny for the chickens though <_<

8wy105.jpg

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