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DryArmour

Caribbean, Florida and possibly GOM Tropical Weather

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CARIBBEAN, FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE- System 99L isn't well organized and it isn't in a dynamic environment for rapid intensification...YET***. The dry air surrounding 99L will give way to a less stable and more dynamic environment on final approach to the Florida Peninsula. If the ridge builds back in this could look very much like a Hurricane Andrew or Hurricane Katrina event. Neither of those ended very well for the participants...If however the topography of Hispaniola keepS the lid on things and the ridge doesn't build back in then it is likely to just be a small, nasty little storm with modest damage. Regardless, people living in the central and western Caribbean, Florida and all of the Gulf Coast should start to watch how this system is progressing over the next four days.

 

More later as things get potentially more interesting.

 

at201699_model.gif

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maybe just a bit early to project this to be as bad as two of the worst storms ever. Come on , man. This isn't even a tropical depression yet . I really hate it when the weather folks start scaring people this early.

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maybe just a bit early to project this to be as bad as two of the worst storms ever. Come on , man. This isn't even a tropical depression yet . I really hate it when the weather folks start scaring people this early.

 

If you recall my thread about Katrina it was started five days before the storm made landfall just east of New Orleans. I received several "Thank you for the early heads up" notes following the landfall and some folks noted that the early heads up let them beat the train wreck that was the mass evacuation 48 hours prior to the storm decimating the area. I am not saying this storm will become a category 5 monster but I do think that it has the potential for rapid intensification as all of the ingredients are forecast to be in place over the weekend. For now, it is just an area of "Interest".

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1000HRS PDT model runs are in and talk about a split. One takes the system up the eastern coastline of Florida. The others take the system harmlessly into the western Caribbean and never really develop it. Think I will sit tight and see what NHC thinks at 2PM EDT. THE NAZI MAY BE RIGHT!

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Please, people, take your advice from genuine, professional, well-trained weathermen and let shirt salesmen sell shirts:

 

Dr Jeff Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

 

The National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

Levi Cowan, meteo grad student, UF, page

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

Jeff's blogs are always a great read. NHC, not so much. For those who have been here on SA for a while I'll let my prognostications speak for themselves. I don't always get it right but in the last 11 years I have nailed the major ones including Charlie, Katrina, Sandy and more. Jeff and NHC were late to the game on all three.

 

I am digging Levi's page. That's a good find so thank you for that.

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Why ya gotta be like that?

 

 

dozens of people have testified to the material help Mark's Wx forecasts have provided over the years. if people can't filter out haters, they really don't belong on a computer these days!

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Maybe the mere internet shirt sails guy can use the picture below to teach others a little bit about energy....

 

atl_sst_720x486.jpg

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I had to swim out from my dock to recover a bow anchor that flounder fishermen had run afoul of and simply cut my anchor line in frustration that they fouled their tackle. What a pisser. I'm on the northern bounds of the GOM in Orange Beach, Al and after looking at the 88deg temps in that chart above, I thought about the bayou temp only a half mile from the inlet/outlet to the Gulf. The water had to be approaching piss warm, I mean 98.6 degrees! I guess I might be needing all my anchors to be heading up one of the back bay creeks next week if things are that hot offshore. 90 degree water in the Gulf is like a magnet.

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The long term models have a massive high energy storm coming off Africa late next week. Africa is pumping out a regular train of waves now.

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Once things get heated up it becomes like the proverbial popcorn skillet. Keeps popping long after you turn off the fire. I wrote a post about the same thing on the Pacific side. I'll have to look up the link.

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Maybe the mere internet shirt sails guy can use the picture below to teach others a little bit about energy....

 

atl_sst_720x486.jpg

 

All of the makings for a major event are in place. The question is whether or not 99L can surround itself with vertical development and keep the shear at bay. Very cold cloud tops are evident in the last three frames of the satellite IR loop. We'll see if this is enough to mitigate the shear and allow 99L to develop over fertile breeding grounds in the Bahamas. More later...

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Now that it's not going to make huge headlines the T Shirt Salesman is nowhere to be seen.

 

Yeee of little faith...of course I am here :P . Just NOTHING*** happening with 99L in the near term. The GFS dissipates it and the ECMWF and UKMET have little hope for this once formidable wave as well. If something changes though, I'll be back on it. Have a great weekend and get those September regatta team and event orders in over the weekend.

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So thread police is policing the guy who started the thread, what do they say about self co trol, over rated?

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I started part of my fall garden the other day in the highest part of the yard. Last year I put it in a lower spot and it got drowned.

 

I pay attention to all of the sources of information.

 

Thank you, Mr. DryArmour for condensing the overload of information to an understandable forecast.

 

I am probably getting the tendrils of 97 right now.

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99L remains a jumbled mess and while the NHC still gives it a 40% chance of development the more interesting feature on the map (To me anyway) this morning is 91L making its way toward the Outre Banks of NC. Moving quickly to the west and developing some convection in the SE quadrant the canopy of cold cloud tops is expanding. An upper level trough to 91Ls SW should keep rapid intensification somewhat in check. Still worth keeping an eye on for those of you in the Carolinas over the next couple of days. These things can change in a hurry once there is Gulf Stream interaction so keep your eyes to the East of you are going to be in the area between now and Tuesday.

 

You can take a look here at the IR satellite loop and judge for yourself.

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99L remains a jumbled mess and while the NHC still gives it a 40% chance of development the more interesting feature on the map (To me anyway) this morning is 91L making its way toward the Outre Banks of NC. Moving quickly to the west and developing some convection in the SE quadrant the canopy of cold cloud tops is expanding. An upper level trough to 91Ls SW should keep rapid intensification somewhat in check. Still worth keeping an eye on for those of you in the Carolinas over the next couple of days. These things can change in a hurry once there is Gulf Stream interaction so keep your eyes to the East of you are going to be in the area between now and Tuesday.

 

You can take a look here at the IR satellite loop and judge for yourself.

 

 

Tropical Depression 8 has formed off the Atlantic coast and will impact the Outer Banks of North Carolina as at least a tropical storm. Pay attention people.

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One of my most memorable sails involved trying to get upwind in Hurricane Charlie when it had been a non-factor a couple days before. It rapidly developed off the Carolinas and gave us a nasty surprise.

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99L has become TD nine and is now in play. Very little agreement on path or intensity other than it will go west, grow at either a slow pace or moderately fast pace and then hang a Ralph and eject NE at some point on the next several days. More later. If you live pretty much anywhere from Galveston, TX to Naples, FL. Pay attention.

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AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE - JUST LIKE I PREDICTED WITH KATRINA. NOW BUY SOME FUCKING SHIRTS AND BOARD UP YOUR WINDOWS. THE HAND OF GOD IS GOING TO COME AND FIST YOU REAL GOOD.

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Do you think that Gaston will do a circle and come back to bite us?

 

No. Fish storm only.

AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE - JUST LIKE I PREDICTED WITH KATRINA. NOW BUY SOME FUCKING SHIRTS AND BOARD UP YOUR WINDOWS. THE HAND OF GOD IS GOING TO COME AND FIST YOU REAL GOOD.

 

Spoken only like a true Anarchist can...YOU are hired.

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Sorry to hear you guys on the far right coast will be getting some wind and rain. We have two hurricanes heading towards us on the big island in hawaii...just a few days apart. I was surprised how fast Madeline jumped from TS to cat 2 almost just overnight.

 

trying to decide if we should go laser sailing in Hilo bay we'd. Or not.....

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maybe just a bit early to project this to be as bad as two of the worst storms ever. Come on , man. This isn't even a tropical depression yet . I really hate it when the weather folks start scaring people this early.

 

If you recall my thread about Katrina it was started five days before the storm made landfall just east of New Orleans. I received several "Thank you for the early heads up" notes following the landfall and some folks noted that the early heads up let them beat the train wreck that was the mass evacuation 48 hours prior to the storm decimating the area. I am not saying this storm will become a category 5 monster but I do think that it has the potential for rapid intensification as all of the ingredients are forecast to be in place over the weekend. For now, it is just an area of "Interest".

 

 

By the time you started it I and our boat had already been through Katrina. When it was a Cat 2 and hit Florida.

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It has been 11 years so I may be wrong but I think the early days of Hurricane Katrina off of Florida were covered in a different thread. I searched the forums but could not locate anything older than 2011.

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Mark,

 

Any thoughts on Madeline and her brother? Looks like they're sliding down about the same track. Thanks.

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I second that Ned. NOAA keeps saying it will pass just south of the big island as a cat.1, but it is getting closer and no veer yet. Even Guy is beginning to doubt the southward veer. Guess I have to actually batten things down. Most of the schools and gov. Offices are all closed Wed and Thursday.

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You'll definitely want to batten down. We're watching it to see how hard to batten down.

 

I'm leaning toward Maddy going north. The animation with the five pm GOES indicates that being the trend. However, place your bets boys and girls because while the topography of the Big Island can affect the Tropical Storms we've been getting, this is a lot more energy . Curious to see what the 8pm shows.

 

Good luck over there.

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Even the 8pm still shows it going south. It has degraded a bit, but still hasn't turned. There are at least two predictions of it going north of us, and two going over the island. See what happens in the morning.

I did get an email from a sailing buddy here that said he was going down to Hilo bay tomorrow, maybe for a sail. I can't make it tomorrow, but Thursday. Or Friday is good. Looks like it might even be sunny Friday. Would be a great day for a laser sail! Maybe in a radial though.....

Good luck.

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You'll definitely want to batten down. We're watching it to see how hard to batten down.

 

I'm leaning toward Maddy going north. The animation with the five pm GOES indicates that being the trend. However, place your bets boys and girls because while the topography of the Big Island can affect the Tropical Storms we've been getting, this is a lot more energy . Curious to see what the 8pm shows.

 

Good luck over there.

 

Most of the energy in this storm is in the northern semicircle. If the turn is going to happen it is in the next six hours. Even if it does make the turn the southern side of the Big Island is going to get strong winds, storm surge and big waves. Batten down indeed.

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maybe just a bit early to project this to be as bad as two of the worst storms ever. Come on , man. This isn't even a tropical depression yet . I really hate it when the weather folks start scaring people this early.

What ?? I'm right again ? that's weird ( note sarcasm ).

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Just looked at the animation after the 8am. Seems that once again the moisture is getting trapped on the eastern side of the Big Island. The Low has dissipated and weakened. Some of the Low and the moisture will continue on their own. The visual center of the storm does seem to have shifted south a bit and the Low has elongated north- south.

 

Not the first storm that got shredded by the Big Island, and vice versa. Now will Lester catch up and harvest the moisture? Or just have a rear end collision?

 

Still will be a) watching closely, and B) battening down just in case something weird happens and something spools back up.

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maybe just a bit early to project this to be as bad as two of the worst storms ever. Come on , man. This isn't even a tropical depression yet . I really hate it when the weather folks start scaring people this early.

What ?? I'm right again ? that's weird ( note sarcasm ).

 

 

LOL. Evil Twin.

 

Hermine had it right and then screwed his life up AGAIN by decoupling from the convection. This dude had every opportunity. Wealthy parents (Warm SSTs), A nice ride (path through the Caribbean) and then just when he had the chance to do something big, he wrecked the car again (decoupled mid and low level dynamics). He is destined to be a loser as he has clearly thrown away what he had....Now, for Long Island Sound and the Eastern seaboard he may screw up the middle of an otherwise glorious Labor Day weekend. Hermine is a dick.

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There's a little road some of you may know as US 41 that runs from Miami to Chicago or some such northern place.

 

It's under water in Bradenton, FL right now.

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The rain bands were very intense and the whole thing lasted forever when it just brushed us in Southeast Florida. Y'all stay safe, it's a LOT of water.

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Here in St Pete, we had an intense T-Storm pre-dawn this morning. Steady rain but little wind all day. I expect some strong onshore winds tomorrow, as the storm will likely make landfall to the north of us. Tampa Bay will have high water due to several feet of storm surge, some flooding in coastal areas, some beach erosion. Flooded streets, as we get in every heavy rain event. We've been through this before.

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maybe just a bit early to project this to be as bad as two of the worst storms ever. Come on , man. This isn't even a tropical depression yet . I really hate it when the weather folks start scaring people this early.

What ?? I'm right again ? that's weird ( note sarcasm ).

 

 

LOL. Evil Twin.

 

Hermine had it right and then screwed his life up AGAIN by decoupling from the convection. This dude had every opportunity. Wealthy parents (Warm SSTs), A nice ride (path through the Caribbean) and then just when he had the chance to do something big, he wrecked the car again (decoupled mid and low level dynamics). He is destined to be a loser as he has clearly thrown away what he had....Now, for Long Island Sound and the Eastern seaboard he may screw up the middle of an otherwise glorious Labor Day weekend. Hermine is a dick.

 

Good job , evil twin. Glad that you're watching this stuff. Have a great holiday.

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