Norse Horse

2017 Race to Alaska

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14 minutes ago, Training Wheels said:

Bummer! What happened to Bad Kitty?

If they follow Big Bro they might pass Freeburd too. There's also a middle route option. IDK how gnarly it is outside.

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Looks like Bad Kitty stopped at shore to fix something?

Pure&Wild/Freeburd looks OK. Seems to be plenty of width to the channels ahead, I don't know about depth.  They'll have less wind than if they were one channel to the west though.  

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Ughh. Hope we're wrong, but i can't see this paying off. In fact it looks like a disaster. Screenshot_20170614-205846.thumb.png.07a49c70a96328ff9cca4883c7a7d19b.png

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Bad Kitty looks like they are parking.

Freeburd looks to be heading inside and BB is turning back in.

Ketchme is at the Cape Caution and the ODay video reports safe conditions as they continue.

There are safe anchorages for both within 2 hours travel but Ketchme is the most exposed to the expected rising wind right now.It could be really bad if the leaders are in fact bailing to sheltered water and even stopping.

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Broderna jibed back in! How nasty could it be out there? 

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Just now, RandyM81 said:

Broderna jibed back in! How nasty could it be out there? 

Right? Looks like they went out, took a look, and didn't like what they saw.

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FB is inside Campania island. Plenty of depth there and in the channel just north where they will have to turn left. That east/west channel north of Campania is a mile wide at the narrowest with plenty of water. Their only issue is that BB will be sailing a shorter distance so chance for a big gain.

 

 

 

Screenshot_20170614-212238.jpg

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Yes, now it looks like Bro changed mind and decided on the middle route. Freeburd now looking like they'll manage to squeak out of there. It didn't look good at all at first. Bad Kitty has stopped, so has Russell back in Johnstone Strait. The ODay is about to round the Cape...they posted a video a bit ago, they think they can handle weather outside. Triceratops back on move, nearby Roger. 

Edit: now triceratops stopped.

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Freeburg is keeping the boat safe - they know they are faster if they push - and are not to nervous about Broderna to gain some on them....they think about the win not to beat the record.

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Ketch Me is sailing off slowly (4kn) towards the SW. Hope nothing's broke...

 

edit: now sailing slowly (6kn) to the NE. At least they might find a shelter there if something's gone awry.

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The +12 hour forecast is for some really strong winds (26 > 36 mph) in the Cape Scott, Queen Charlotte Sound, and southern Hecate Strait areas. Wouldn't want to be outside Cape Caution then. On the other hand, the Dundas Island and Porcher Island area at +12h is really benign but at +18h the bad stuff below starts to move in.

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Broderna seem to turn west - are they opting for the outside lane of Banks Isl. maybe the only way they can hope to win this race...

 

 

...no they going after Freeburg at half the speed..

 

So next to make a split is north tip of Banks Isl.  its talk about heavy weather - but I dont see that on my forecasts... 

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Nice going for the leaders - but the second pack has fresh conditions - and looks like they are hiding-  all except "the west coast wild ones" - with that name they just have to go...

 

Leaders about 120nm to go - they will be in afternoon or evening thursdag - about 10hr behind Mad Dogs record? 

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Freeburd still leading Big Bro by a few miles, still a race. They and the ODay are the only ones sailing, all others sheltered. ODay took over 4th. 

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Based on their respective lat/long coordinates, Pure & Wild/Freeburd is now ~22 NM ahead of Big Broderna.  (now ~14 NM at 4:50 am; trackers are not in sync)

Weather today for the leaders looks relatively mild compared to the 35 knots expected in Queen Charlotte Strait, between ~7:00 am and 2:00 pm:
https://www.windy.com/?52.335,-127.749,7,m:e4sacBN  (10:00 am)

windy_2017Jun15a.png.35dec3a654394a2aa86a411a201f7040.png

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Look like Broderna take a long tack out - maybe they will try to attack by getting more wind and a good straight course to the entrance to the target? 

Freeburg goes close to land - and less wind - and also have to gybe several times...  

 

At 15kn wind - and a good angle - these boats will go 15kn++ 

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We keep forgetting that many of the people posting here are not native English speakers.  I doubt I would acquit myself half as well as SeaGul if I was posting on a Norwegian forum. He gets his point across quite clearly.

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So is human propulsion going to become a factor as FB and BB near the final channels near Ketchikan?  Forecasts seem to show wind moderating to middle single digits...  and there's a lot of big hills there which means with offshore breeze direction not much of that will get down to the water.

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Drag race across Dixon entrance then light wind battle playing wind lines, currents, and pedal power to the finish. 

Guesses on finish time?

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Very excited for the Burd boys!  Elder daughter is best mates with a Burd cousin from here in CT, who's now on the left coast.

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This is going to be a very close finish. Right now the tracker shows a speed edge to BB, but the lead still seems to be about 8-9 miles.

WL

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Yes, it's turning out to be quite a race. Personal sentiment runs toward BB, but whoever wins will have worked for it.

 

Its' starting to look like West Coast Wild Ones will be runner up for the steak knives.

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...guess Im dreaming of free-burgers - they tend to be quite expensive here... Free-burd!!

As said before - I think they have a faster boat - by now they will be able to see each other? 

Edited by SeaGul
to avoid the grammar police..

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The tracker may be showing the correct position, but it's not reporting the correct coordinates.

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BB has 5kn speed advantage on the last reading - and better angle .....   seems like the FB get some shadow from the nearby islands...

 

 

Im very impressed by that O`day - but less impressed by the Aussies in the F-31R.. (I almost wrote Assies - we would be in war soon...)

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Go Team Pure & Wild/Freeburd. (Take that grammar policeman).  This is a race of tough against tough.  Both these teams are gonna sail it hard right to the dock.  Hopefully, Three Burds is better than two Brodernas  in the end!  Go MAMA.  Eat More Fish.

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Gotta root for my Homies. Go Big Bro!!!

Its looking like a consistent speed advantage to the bigger tri. Definite horse race to the finish!

 

WL

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It's unclear who's in the lead now. Tracker shows BB 8 miles behind but an hour earlier report.

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Windyty someone linked to earlier showed more wind out where BB is going.  I wonder if they know this.  It might be the difference.

I don't understand why I find this so exciting to watch every year, but it is.  Even after the winners arrive I still follow the others duking it out.  I also enjoy inspecting all the boats and teams at the start in PT.  

I'm with the homies too (BB), but props to all for sure.

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9 minutes ago, jdazey said:

It's unclear who's in the lead now. Tracker shows BB 8 miles behind but an hour earlier report.

Joe, my screen says BB time stamp of 0751 and Burds of 0746.  I find sometimes I have to refresh the screen by reopening the tracker website.

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14 hours ago, satchel said:

The race wouldn't be exciting if one of the top three boats wasn't hiding from the tracker!

Yep!  Same goes further back in the fleet as well.

Spelling isn't the same as grammar.  "Burd" is the brothers' proper name, not "Burg".  This was the third time.  No criticism intended.  Fake drama.

Big Broderna is kicking it on the rhumb line while Pure & Wild/Freeburd are heading into light air, to starboard of the shortest distance.

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Will Freeburd go inside Duke Isl?? 

 

Advantage BB now.

Isnt FB a pure new racer - that F-31 cant be as fast?? ...more wind yes .... 

 

 

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OK, that worked. Shows correct coordinates as well.

Cheers,

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FB must tack out - and take the BB track - use the boat speed....

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BB has double the speed now at 08.11 both ....and is passed...

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2 minutes ago, RandyM81 said:

Great video report!

+1 on that.

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Heartbreaking!  Jibe over Freeburd!  Where are you going?

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12 minutes ago, SeaGul said:

..... Isnt FB a pure new racer - that F-31 cant be as fast?? ...more wind yes .... 

FB is a heavily modified well updated and maintained old racer. NZ 8.5m box rule. It has roughly the same speed as an F85 R, see last year's race in Johnstone Straits.

But at the end of the day in strong winds and lumpy seas, a 9.5m Tri (BB) should beat an 8.5 m Tri (FB).

it will be close . FB to win if light conditions return, BB to win if it stays heavy enough long enough.

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Nice vid - shows a very big spinnaker on BB ... they use it now... 

Edited by SeaGul
we learn all the time..

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This race is AWESOME!!! 

The videos too!

And, I agree...where are you going Freeburd?

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10 minutes ago, RandyM81 said:

Heartbreaking!  Jibe over Freeburd!  Where are you going?

Jibe?  At this wind angle, they just need a deeper TWA, eh?

windy_2017Jun15b.png.79a055aee7f6861328d2d9dd7c4ba918.png

 

27 minutes ago, spring fever said:

Check out our update on the top 3 boats through Bella Bella! https://youtu.be/TmQrjMkxqOM

Great video, thanks!  It will embed here if you paste the full, "desktop" url:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmQrjMkxqOM

 

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You're right.  Deeper angle needed if observations are accurate.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Rob Zabukovec said:

FB is a heavily modified well updated and maintained old racer. NZ 8.5m box rule. It has roughly the same speed as an F85 R, see last year's race in Johnstone Straits.

But at the end of the day in strong winds and lumpy seas, a 9.5m Tri (BB) should beat an 8.5 m Tri (FB).

it will be close . FB to win if light conditions return, BB to win if it stays heavy enough long enough.

1m additional LWL could explain a 10-15% speed difference in the reported conditions, but not a 50% speed difference.  Pure&Wild/Freeburd has either sailed into less wind or isn't pushing as hard.

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The race is a restart now.  Agree, BB's F31 will be a little tougher in bigger conditions but it looks like it will go lighter later and closer to the finish.  As someone said earlier it will be up to chasing wind lines and maybe even peddle power.  This is going to be a test of physical strength (how "rested" they are), as much as will power.  

As much as my limited capibilities allow I am all geeked out discovering the features of that windyty.  Right hand bar has wind, clouds, temp, rain, waves, etc... bottom bar of course as predictions into the future.  I find myself clicking between it, the tracker, this SA page and Navionics, with departures into the team bios.  Total R2AK geek.

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5 minutes ago, RandyM81 said:

1m additional LWL could explain a 10-15% speed difference in the reported conditions, but not a 50% speed difference.  Pure&Wild/Freeburd has either sailed into less wind or isn't pushing as hard.

Totally agree, but if it stay strong, the advantage is with BB.

And sailing deeper is slower, No?

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4 minutes ago, eric1207 said:

The race is a restart now.  Agree, BB's F31 will be a little tougher in bigger conditions but it looks like it will go lighter later and closer to the finish.  As someone said earlier it will up to chasing wind lines and maybe even peddle power.  This is going to be a test of physical strength (how "rested" they are), as much as will power.  

As much as my limited capibilities allow I am all geeked out discovering the features of that windyty.  Right hand bar has wind, clouds, temp, rain, waves, etc... bottom bar of course as predictions into the future.  I find myself clicking between it, the tracker, this SA page and Navionics, with departures into the team bios.  Total R2AK geek.

Yep. spending half the day on this obsession and the other half in the garage! Not getting nearly as much done this week as I had planned. ;)

 

WL

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The race for the $10,000 buyback is also a nail biter. It's the tortoise vs. the hare!

West coast wild ones are unstoppable. Sailing well in tough conditions, using their advantage in crew numbers and heavy air, making slow but steady progress.

Ketch me are holed up waiting for their window to launch out at high speed on the tail end of the depression. They can't sail fast 24/7, and they can't sail in 30+ knot winds, but they can attack parts of the course with their superior boat speed. The heavy weather has penalized them dearly... by the time they can push off again, the O'Day will probably have built up a 50 nm advantage, which is a huge swing considering they started yesterday 30 nm behind!

(KMIYC knew they were rolling the dice when they chose that Nacra 20... would the weather be light like in 2016 or heavy like in 2015?)

This is going to be exciting to watch.

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Another significant factor could be that the crew on BB know their boat a lot better in rough conditions..... It is harder to push a boat if you don't know it so well.

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This is going to set up an interesting dilemma for FreeBurd. Do they try and hold with Big Bro or do they split to the opposite channel that BB takes and try a flyer??

WL

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Besides the leaders, WCWO remain underway and HoG is underway. The remainder appear to be hunkering.

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3 minutes ago, Frers381 said:

This is going to set up an interesting dilemma for FreeBurd. Do they try and hold with Big Bro or do they split to the opposite channel that BB takes and try a flyer??

WL

wind angle and strength will play into that,, there might not be a decision to make by Duke Island.

...definitely a few dramas going on!  :o

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Frers381 said:

This is going to set up an interesting dilemma for FreeBurd. Do they try and hold with Big Bro or do they split to the opposite channel that BB takes and try a flyer??

WL

I think they need to stick with BB, and hope to repass if wind lightens up or pedaling required. i guessing they're a fair bit lighter than BB.

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5 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I think they need to stick with BB, and hope to repass if wind lightens up or pedaling required. i guessing they're a fair bit lighter than BB.

Yep.  Also BB have 2 aboard and FB is lighter and have three.  Could be a big factor if paddling/pedaling is needed to the finish.

KMIYC position is reported at 0240 this morning.  Could they be on the move and the tracker not showing it?  Seems like there were similar tracker problems/irregularities last year.

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3 minutes ago, eric1207 said:

 KMIYC position is reported at 0240 this morning.  Could they be on the move and the tracker not showing it?  Seems like there were similar tracker problems/irregularities last year.

...stealth mode! :rolleyes:

 

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3 minutes ago, eric1207 said:

Yep.  Also BB have 2 aboard and FB is lighter and have three.  Could be a big factor if paddling/pedaling is needed to the finish.

KMIYC position is reported at 0240 this morning.  Could they be on the move and the tracker not showing it?  Seems like there were similar tracker problems/irregularities last year.

If the boat doesn't move, the tracker shuts down to save power. As soon as they start moving again, the tracker will show it.

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There is a deep low tide they may have to fight but the leaders could use the following tide to get into KTN. https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Masset-Harbor-Dixon-Entrance-Alaska/tides/latest

Wonder what happened to BK?

Karl is moving again.

If you zoom in, there is a sneak exit that N2AK could possibly try.

The seas are likely too big for the Nacra last night. They will be able to crush past Bella Bella.

The ODay is well acquainted with 30 plus winds. You have to be to clear our harbour in Squamish. They also have a fresh bottom and 4 crew. Mooned the Race Boss, too.

Freya was hit by a Qualicum williwaw, in the buff, showering on deck. See the daily videos.

Proving Ground storm report from Noddy's. A Blow-out on Team Noddy’s Noggins – R2AK 2017 | Log of LUNA

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1 minute ago, satchel said:

If the boat doesn't move, the tracker shuts down to save power. As soon as they start moving again, the tracker will show it.

Thanks Satch.  

Not drama but I wonder what happened to North to Alaska.  Took a long wrong turn and stopped.  Interesting guys, I talked to them in PT

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WCWOs have the power of the Goddess aboard. Big respect for them and the O'Day 27 :-)

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OMG, what a race for first!!

 

Why all this talk of a human powered finish? Not enough wind for ya?

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1 minute ago, BarfBag said:

 

 

Why all this talk of a human powered finish? Not enough wind for ya?

IDK, there was a lot of drifting for some of the finishers outside the harbor last year.  No local knowledge but Mr Windyty shows pretty light in there this afternoon.

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3 minutes ago, BarfBag said:

OMG, what a race for first!!

 

Why all this talk of a human powered finish? Not enough wind for ya?

....could be pretty protected as they get closer, especially if they choose, or wind forces them to the west channel., there seems to potentially be a lot of East in the breeze,no?

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1 minute ago, eric1207 said:

IDK, there was a lot of drifting for some of the finishers outside the harbor last year.  No local knowledge but Mr Windyty shows pretty light in there this afternoon.

Ah yes, last year...

 

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5 minutes ago, BarfBag said:

OMG, what a race for first!!

 

Why all this talk of a human powered finish? Not enough wind for ya?

I think it will get light up near finish...could be pedaling race the last few miles. Go cyclors!

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13 minutes ago, eric1207 said:

Thanks Satch.  

Not drama but I wonder what happened to North to Alaska.  Took a long wrong turn and stopped.  Interesting guys, I talked to them in PT

I think N2AK is just waiting out the weather, like most of the others. Not a wrong turn, just a cove with Max protection.

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Norse, that exit for N2Ak is cool.  Zooming didn't show it on my tracker but Navionics had it. Need high tide though and favorable current.  In Colvos passage down in South Puget Sound current runs north in both ebb and flood tide.  Wonder it thats the case here and they didn't know it.  Per tracker they have been stopped a long time.

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Dang ya miss so much when ya get a good nights rest! What makes the drama even bigger is to remember that BB took a 4 hr breakdown at East Point 12 hours into the race! Big respect for both teams .. They've pushed hard .. Go Big Broderna!

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42 minutes ago, couchsurfer said:

wind angle and strength will play into that,, there might not be a decision to make by Duke Island.

...definitely a few dramas going on!  :o

 

 

I think the worst mistake we made last year was to *NOT* go to the West of Duke+Annette.. 

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Whoa!  Pure&Wild/Freeburd must be in a big toungue of wind.  They are both 30 or 40 degrees lower than BB and 4 knts faster.  It looks like they will cut them off.

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1 minute ago, Shu said:

Whoa!  Pure&Wild/Freeburd must be in a big toungue of wind.  They are both 30 or 40 degrees lower than BB and 4 knts faster.  It looks like they will cut them off.

Could be on the other gybe?

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Don't forget the Steak Knives were taken by a team that rowed all night to make it into KTN in 2015. They split them with 3rd in an emotional moment and that was a highlight of the race.

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Kitty still limping.  Wonder whats up with that.

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Not to distract from R2AK, but the Vanisle 360 just started out of Telegraph Cove and it'll be a quick leg to Port Hardy! 

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13 minutes ago, eric1207 said:

Kitty still limping.  Wonder whats up with that.

Something's broken.

8 knots of wind in Ketchican.

Direction unknown.

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1 minute ago, trimejust4fun said:

Not to distract from R2AK, but the Vanisle 360 just started out of Telegraph Cove and it'll be a quick leg to Port Hardy! 

Do you have the tracker link for that?

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It took a lot of balls to do Cape Caution in a Nacra 20, in a split sea state, in gusts over 30, pitch black jibes and seek shelter against a shore so dark, you don't know where the trees end and the water begins.

The ODay is slowing, the tide change is large, they likely have some serious no-low wind wave slop right now, so the chess match for the Buyout begins again today. Will the Nacra launch in this sea state?

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Tracker.vanisle360.com

Just now, BarfBag said:

Do you have the tracker link for that?

tracker.vanisle360.com ...

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Bad Kitty (like that spinnaker) is in very light wind, apparently around 8 > 10 mph out of the southeast according to SailFlow, so being in a channel she's essentially she is probably on a run.

For what it's worth, that is a very nice channel to sail in because of protection from strong westerly wave and low mountains so no big williwaws like the channels further inside.

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Its going to be a nail biter for the finish. That forecast suggests going east of Duke Island might be the favored passage, but I have no idea what the terrain elevation is on Metlakatla vs. the main land looks like. Who has the better pedal drive system?

The Nacra 20 was a balsy call for this race, as the Burd brothers found out with the ARC22 in the 2015 edition. Really fast when you can sail and push, but the lack of protection makes for a challenging ride to say the least.

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1 minute ago, samc99us said:

Its going to be a nail biter for the finish. That forecast suggests going east of Duke Island might be the favored passage, but I have no idea what the terrain elevation is on Metlakatla vs. the main land looks like. Who has the better pedal drive system?

The Nacra 20 was a balsy call for this race, as the Burd brothers found out with the ARC22 in the 2015 edition. Really fast when you can sail and push, but the lack of protection makes for a challenging ride to say the least.

Nacra 20:  F'n crazy!

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BB ahead, maybe, depending on time stamp.  Both heading west of Duke Is. where it seems Mr Windy/Windity says to go.  Will FB push/lead BB to the west of Duke Is. and at the last minute peel off and gybe back east of Duke to initiate a split?   As mentiioned above will that be the favored side of Duke?   Was their prerace research extensive enough to know that?   Dang, it almost feels like dingy racing.  What fun. 

The big question is can I break away and get something done today or am I addicted until the winner has rung the bell.  Gotta pick my wife up at the airport at 2pm.  Damn, that just might interfere.

Edited by eric1207

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3 minutes ago, eric1207 said:

The big question is can I break away and get something done today or am I addicted until the winner has rung the bell.  

....what'll stop you then?....as many compelling dramas as boats,, and pretty good coverage! :)

.

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2 minutes ago, samc99us said:

Its going to be a nail biter for the finish. That forecast suggests going east of Duke Island might be the favored passage, but I have no idea what the terrain elevation is on Metlakatla vs. the main land looks like. Who has the better pedal drive system?

The Nacra 20 was a balsy call for this race, as the Burd brothers found out with the ARC22 in the 2015 edition. Really fast when you can sail and push, but the lack of protection makes for a challenging ride to say the least.

 

My brother's the skipper of the Nacra. I was very worried and scratching my head when I saw him launch across Queen Charlotte strait yesterday at 6pm. Heading across open water towards Cape Caution with winds gusting in the high 20s, 4 hours of daylight left, and a gale inbound... ballsy.

There was a short lull at that time, so I'm guessing he didn't want to miss the window knowing that WWOC was on his heels and advantaged by the weather.

Trying to imagine what it's like out there, having to decide when to launch off into the tail end of the storm with no option to turn back. Every hour he waits, WWOC gets 4-5NM closer to the $10K buyback. But if he pushes off just one hour early, he's putting a lot more than his boat on the line.

My guess is he's looking at the Herbert Is. hourly weather reports, waiting for confirmation that the gale is easing. Maybe leave around 3-4pm PST local. 

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1 hour ago, spring fever said:

Check out our update on the top 3 boats through Bella Bella! https://youtu.be/TmQrjMkxqOM

That was sweet. Very good song and edit. Get a feel for the power in those boats. Well Played.

 

I dedicate this song to the winner today, fair winds.

"Everything that kills me, makes me feel alive"

Lost Frequencies - Counting Stars (OneRepublic cover in the Live Lounge) - YouTube

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For those who are unaware, BB broke/lost the drive shaft for their pedal system at the very start of the race (I was actually on board filming - eeks - I'm sure the footage will surface some point soon). They only had two SUP paddles to rely on after that until pulling in to a beach and picking up some rebar - repairs set them back three hours! And now they're in it for the win. It's a race of brothers for first - how awesome! 

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