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Zonker

New low lat. Caribbean Hurricane - paging Mark !

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What am I looking at here? Could this thing loop around and slam into the Bahamas and Florida all over again?

at201614_ensmodel.gif

EUROPEAN MODEL....

 

 

Euro Model is crazy! Going to hit the Bahamas and then come back for more

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What am I looking at here? Could this thing loop around and slam into the Bahamas and Florida all over again?

at201614_ensmodel.gif

EUROPEAN MODEL....

 

 

Euro Model is crazy! Going to hit the Bahamas and then come back for more

 

 

 

yup, it brings Matthew off Long Island next weekend

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Mark - We have done what we can for our FL property and plan for the worst and hope for the best... it will be what it will be...

 

But what is your opinion of which model is generally the most accurate within 72 hours?

 

Euro has handled Matthew the best.

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Mark - We have done what we can for our FL property and plan for the worst and hope for the best... it will be what it will be...

 

But what is your opinion of which model is generally the most accurate within 72 hours?

 

Euro has handled Matthew the best.

 

And Euro has it doing a ferris wheel impression.

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What am I looking at here? Could this thing loop around and slam into the Bahamas and Florida all over again?

at201614_ensmodel.gif

EUROPEAN MODEL....

 

 

Euro Model is crazy! Going to hit the Bahamas and then come back for more

 

 

 

yup, it brings Matthew off Long Island next weekend

 

 

I like the far west track where it goes straight up the Mississippi

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Why people stay?

One reason is it can be next to impossible to get back from outside and people want to protect their property.

Another is the number of times nothing happens.

Another is not wanting to be in a shelter and/or no money to travel. ..

Another one is unwillingness to leave pets behind.

 

We found ourselves wandering central Florida with three dogs, three cats, and seemingly every hotel room in the state occupied when we fled Charley in 2004. Luckily, a friend from Palm Beach who loves dogs and cats called to ask if we needed a place to stay.

 

We DID! My original plan of returning home after the storm went by was foiled when it hit us instead of going by. By the time I knew my plan was a bad one, I had no opportunity to make a new plan.

Same thing happened to my brother. He left Englewood with his dog and headed east. No vacancies in any motel that would take a pet. He headed south on the east coast still looking, and after a few hours the worst of storm had passed and he came up I-75 from the south and back home. Nobody else was on the road yet. He said you couldn't even tell there was a hurricane except for a few mile stretch past Punta Gorda where everything was flattened.

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The Pastafarian is not making me happy.........

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What am I looking at here? Could this thing loop around and slam into the Bahamas and Florida all over again?

at201614_ensmodel.gif

EUROPEAN MODEL....

 

 

Euro Model is crazy! Going to hit the Bahamas and then come back for more

 

 

 

yup, it brings Matthew off Long Island next weekend

 

 

I like the far west track where it goes straight up the Mississippi

 

 

I don't ;-)

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How many times could it keep going around? 2? 3? 4? :o :o

 

That's what has me puzzled - While admittedly a bit far off in the timeline, both GFS and Euro has it looping to SE/S/SW/W and potentially giving the Bahamas & FL round 2 in next week. When I saw this in the various model runs a day or two ago, I figured it was an outlier, but now???

 

Mark M - Please pick up the white courtesy phone to provide enlightenment...

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Very interesting to watch marinetraffic.com in the Southeast US area. Every ship south of WPB is steaming at full bore towards Key West in an effort to get to the west of the storm. I've watched a few superyachts come out of WPB and steam dead East towards Bermuda with everything they have. Every cargo ship on the southeastern seaboard has left their docks in Charleston, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale and headed out their ship channels in an effort to get out and far enough west that they're out of the way of this monster. Lots of AIS targets wayyyy up the Miami river and deep into the back side of Fort Lauderdale.

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How many times could it keep going around? 2? 3? 4? :o :o

 

That's what has me puzzled - While admittedly a bit far off in the timeline, both GFS and Euro has it looping to SE/S/SW/W and potentially giving the Bahamas & FL round 2 in next week. When I saw this in the various model runs a day or two ago, I figured it was an outlier, but now???

 

Mark M - Please pick up the white courtesy phone to provide enlightenment...

 

 

From the hurricane guy at Weather Underground

 

While a loop back towards Florida and The Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time. Long-range forecasts of wind shear are not very reliable, but this morning’s wind shear forecast from the 00Z run of the European model does show a low to moderate shear environment over the Bahamas and waters surrounding South Florida late next week, potentially supportive of a hurricane--if Matthew survives the high wind shear of 50+ knots expected to affect the storm early next week. The bottom line is that it currently appears that Matthew will not recurve out to sea early next week, and The Bahamas and Florida may have to deal with the storm again next week.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-matthew-reorganizing-over-the-bahamas-major-shift-in-longr

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Here's one to watch: The Carnival Victory. At 4AM this morning they went balls out into Port Canaveral, spent 7 hours dropping off pax and loading up fuel, and is now on a full tilt boogie southeast, directly towards the storm.

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Need to scuttle a bacteria factory, do they?

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Here's one to watch: The Carnival Victory. At 4AM this morning they went balls out into Port Canaveral, spent 7 hours dropping off pax and loading up fuel, and is now on a full tilt boogie southeast, directly towards the storm.

 

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:299837/mmsi:311000328/imo:8314134/vessel:GRAND_CELEBRATION

 

They don't seem to be much in a rush but....

 

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:416347/mmsi:355263000/imo:9172648/vessel:CARNIVAL_VICTORY

Steaming at close to 20 knots as of this post.

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The AIS shows hundreds of commercial vessels hiding south of Cuba and a mass migration around the tip of Florida.

 

Getting outta Dodge.

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South to WHERE :o

 

Turn right at Key West and into the Gulf. Should have enough time, but any machinery failure would make them toast. A gutsy call.

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South to WHERE :o

 

Turn right at Key West and into the Gulf. Should have enough time, but any machinery failure would make them toast. A gutsy call.

 

They're off of West Palm heading 167 degrees.

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I had to work during and after a storm. Now that I am retired I got the hell out.

 

Yes you could ride out a Cat 1 or 2 and probably have no issues. But those of us who were there for Andrew remember that the floors of some buildings on floors the beach pancaked. The force of the wind will rack the structure. If it is sound, you will feel some movement and the windows may leak.

 

The question is how much racking (rotation of each floor) can the structure take before the floor separates from the columns and falls onto the floor beneath. Then, how long will the floor beneath hold with double the load? When/if that floor let's go the two floor fall to the once beneath.

 

It looks like everything from Deerfield north will have Cat 2 or higher winds. The Cape will probably get a major hit. Could get interesting.

 

[begin rant font]

Do the folks who HAVE TO work a favor and evacuate from coastal areas. And after the storm stay off the road. If you do that, normalization of services will take less time and be much safer for all than involved.

[end rant font].

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Matthew is trying to get the cold cloud top convection to wrap all the way around. Not quite there yet. Will have to see if this coincides with an eye wall replacement cycle.

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Here is the forecast for Freeport...

 

 

6:00 PM

THU, OCT 6

Squalls

 

E 124 mph

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Here is the forecast for Freeport...

 

 

6:00 PM

THU, OCT 6

Squalls

 

E 124 mph

 

Mmm Squalls, yes i would say squalls...

not quite gales, but squalls will do.

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Here is the forecast for Freeport...

 

 

6:00 PM

THU, OCT 6

Squalls

 

E 124 mph

 

What? No gusts? ;-). BREEZE on.

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Hey, Mark, looks like the latest consensus models have budged a bit left? Not such a good thing for the coast. Ugh....

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Hey, Mark, looks like the latest consensus models have budged a bit left? Not such a good thing for the coast. Ugh....

 

Agreed.

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Looks like we will get to test "built to a category 5 standard." Oh goodie.

 

Fortunately we it to do it from many miles away.

 

Best to those in the path.

 

Thanks for the postings here and on facebook, Mark.

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My sister lives a little bit west of Orlando, and says that gas stations are running out and grocery stores are running out of bread and bottled water. i suspect traffic is going to be a clusterfuck tomorrow over on the east coast.

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Oh joy.

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Royal Bahamian Defense ships are hunkering down at NAS Key West.

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well help is on the way, saw several convoys of poleclimbers heading east on I-20 today..

yeah a buddy of mine ditched weekend plans and headed south with a bunch of folks on call. crazy shit.

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My sister lives a little bit west of Orlando, and says that gas stations are running out and grocery stores are running out of bread and bottled water. i suspect traffic is going to be a clusterfuck tomorrow over on the east coast.

 

My wife went to the grocery store yesterday and reported panic buying.

 

Pretty funny. My main preparation for Matthew has been deciding where and when to go sailing as it goes by. I'm thinking tomorrow between rain bands will be great.

 

I can't believe no one has commented on the funniest thing about those loop forecasts: most of them seem to hit Mar A Lago twice.

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0245 HRS PDT Atlantic Tropical Weather update on Major hurricane Matthew-The latest recon flight by the hurricane hunters found the pressure had dropped an eye popping 18mb and an eye has reformed. These are precursors to what could be a major ramp up of the storm. The Northern Bahamas will be feeling the full effects of Matthew over the next few hours. Adelaide Village just to the west of Nassau will likely see tremendous impacts from the storm but a big wobble to the left just happened and now Andros Town looks to be directly in the sights of this hurricane. The consensus near term track finds Matthew interacting with the coastline of Florida just below cape Canaveral assuming this latest wobble isn't a shift to the left in the track. If it is from Ft Lauderdale northward need to pay close attention to the track

Long range forecasts are still all over the board so no one from the keys to Charleston, SC are out of the woods quite yet. We could be dealing with a greatly diminished Matthew a full week from now. More on that later. If you still have the ability to evacuate and you are in the forecast zone where hurricane warnings are up for the east coast of Florida, GET OUT. My friends that went through Hurricane Andrew thinking it would be a fun "Hurricane to party to" will tell you, this is no joke. Andrew while ferocious, was tiny***. Matthew is both ferocious and LARGE. I love severe weather as much as anyone and even I would be hitting the road if at all possible were I in the direct path of the storm.

More later. Time to get some sleep. (2:59AM)

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Bahamas getting slammed. Andros seeing 105g121at present and will see hurricane force winds until after sunset so more than 14 hours of HfW.

 

Thoughts with those in the path.

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Bahamas getting slammed. Andros seeing 105g121at present and will see hurricane force winds until after sunset so more than 14 hours of HfW.

 

Thoughts with those in the path.

Wow, my friends place is in Big Whale Cay in the Berry islands a few miles north of Andros. Looks like it will take a direct hit..

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when asking my friend who has a condo on Lake Worth (Hypuluxo) if he's ready, his reply " can't fight Mother Nature" and "Insurance is all paid up"

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Checking in from South Florida. Got the boats all secured and now just waiting for the brunt of this thing to hit. Hopefully we are far enough south that we don't catch the worst of it.

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... My friends that went through Hurricane Andrew thinking it would be a fun "Hurricane to party to" will tell you, this is no joke. Andrew while ferocious, was tiny***. Matthew is both ferocious and LARGE. I love severe weather as much as anyone and even I would be hitting the road if at all possible were I in the direct path of the storm.

 

More later. Time to get some sleep. (2:59AM)

 

 

I sat through Andrew's N eye wall. Not because I thought it would be fun. I thought the storm would turn. It didn't.

 

I wasn't exactly seated. I left our safe room to find a river flowing down the hall from my bedroom. I went into the back room and (very stupidly) stuck my head out a broken window into the storm. Then something hit and broke the window next to me and I retreated.

 

I figured that when (not if) the house finished disintegrating, I could climb into my van in the garage and squeeze myself under the rear bench seats, hoping the seat frames would protect me when the garage crushed the van.

 

When that's your best plan, you've REALLY fucked up. Never again. As long as I have a working vehicle, no hurricane will ever catch me again.

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I know a guy who thought it would be a hoot to ride out Katrina, coastal Mississippi, a block or two from water. As the storm surge rose, he ended up in the attic. He kicked out a gable vent, saw a small boat drifting by and swam for it. Then came the eye, a 180 deg wind change which washed him out the bay. He bailed out of the boat to cling to the remains of a destroyed bridge. Found alive 24 hours later, clinging to the pilings.

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... My friends that went through Hurricane Andrew thinking it would be a fun "Hurricane to party to" will tell you, this is no joke. Andrew while ferocious, was tiny***. Matthew is both ferocious and LARGE. I love severe weather as much as anyone and even I would be hitting the road if at all possible were I in the direct path of the storm.

 

More later. Time to get some sleep. (2:59AM)

 

 

I sat through Andrew's N eye wall. Not because I thought it would be fun. I thought the storm would turn. It didn't.

 

I wasn't exactly seated. I left our safe room to find a river flowing down the hall from my bedroom. I went into the back room and (very stupidly) stuck my head out a broken window into the storm. Then something hit and broke the window next to me and I retreated.

 

I figured that when (not if) the house finished disintegrating, I could climb into my van in the garage and squeeze myself under the rear bench seats, hoping the seat frames would protect me when the garage crushed the van.

 

When that's your best plan, you've REALLY fucked up. Never again. As long as I have a working vehicle, no hurricane will ever catch me again.

Thats not a good plan. My sister in Clearwater,Fl did just that to find herself in a motel in the middle of the Hurricane that missed Clearwater and centered on her excape hideout on Fls east cost. Sand blasted the paint off her car it did...

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Tips for those who have to flee:

 

Take only those things that money can't replace.

 

After a hurricane, chainsaws and full gas tanks are things money can't easily replace. And chainsaw blades. And those little fuel primer bulbs that seem to find the wrong moment to crack.

 

The streets will be covered with roofing nails. Tire plugging kits and Fix A Flat cans are other things that money can't easily replace.

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Another tip: if you have a handheld GPS, plug in coordinates of your house before leaving. A couple brothers who used to crew for me drove to their mothers house in Homestead after Andrew to help clean up. Took them many hours to find it. Every street sign and landmark was gone....just many square miles of damaged and destroyed homes. Hard to find a specific address amid piles of debris.

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Another tip: if you have a handheld GPS, plug in coordinates of your house before leaving. A couple brothers who used to crew for me drove to their mothers house in Homestead after Andrew to help clean up. Took them many hours to find it. Every street sign and landmark was gone....just many square miles of damaged and destroyed homes. Hard to find a specific address amid piles of debris.

 

I had some trouble finding my own house the first couple of times I left it after Andrew. No street signs and nothing looked familiar.

 

It's different now though. Even without coordinates, a GPS knows which street to turn on and when you're at the address.

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I can't believe no one has commented on the funniest thing about those loop forecasts: most of them seem to hit Mar A Lago twice.

So, there is a just and fair god up there... :-)

 

Here's the next president's tweet on the matter - he obviously hasn't a clue about forecasts, and also claims he is praying...uh oh.

 

"Praying for everyone in Florida. Hoping the hurricane dissipates, but in any event, please be careful." https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783885674575491073?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

 

Thanks a lot for the helpful thoughts, Donny Boy...

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Nassau getting the brunt right now!

Hit by the NE quad of the storm which will bring the heaviest surge, eye passing to the west of her.

 

next will be the poor berries, Chubb cay. Very flat area, will most likely be underwater.

 

Sad...

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Good luck and stay safe for all in the path. This thing seems intent on wrecking as much coast line as possible.

 

great, and our insurance rate hikes will be paying for all those huge homes / condos on the beach front..

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98 ships off Key West headed South West toward the fleet hovering North of Cuba.

 

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-82/centery:24/zoom:8

 

 

Do any of the forecast models still have a potential routing that takes Matthew into the Gulf of Mexico? I know a day or so ago, there were one or two outlier scenarios where that could happen. Just thinking it would be quite a mess if a huge fleet of large ships that went there to escape Matthew found that it was suddenly bearing down on them there. I guess they probably have the capacity to outrun it, though, as long as they have plenty of fuel. Maybe steam around the West end of Cuba and hang out there for a while.

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Nassau getting the brunt right now!

Hit by the NE quad of the storm which will bring the heaviest surge, eye passing to the west of her.

 

next will be the poor berries, Chubb cay. Very flat area, will most likely be underwater.

 

Sad...

perhaps God will do something about that abomination called Atlantis ?? ;-) and leave the good people of the Bahamas alone..especially my friends on Cat Island...be safe everyone

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There is marine traffic all over the place. Boats off Savannah. All over the place between Florida and Cuba. Carnival Victory is marked "adrift" off Marathon. I guess waiting for a place to run?

 

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-83/centery:24/zoom:8

I noticed that, too, although that was reported at 2300 UTC yesterday.

 

Edit: I see that it has the same report at 1557 UTC, although it is significantly south of the previous location, and "adrift" at 7.4 knots on a heading of 269.5.

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As predicted, he's intensifying. 940MB... Ugh...

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

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As predicted, he's intensifying. 940MB... Ugh...

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.3N 78.0W

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

Ouch, 940 mBars!!

 

Any chance of this making a change of direction and heading offshore?

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... My friends that went through Hurricane Andrew thinking it would be a fun "Hurricane to party to" will tell you, this is no joke. Andrew while ferocious, was tiny***. Matthew is both ferocious and LARGE. I love severe weather as much as anyone and even I would be hitting the road if at all possible were I in the direct path of the storm.

 

More later. Time to get some sleep. (2:59AM)

 

 

I sat through Andrew's N eye wall. Not because I thought it would be fun. I thought the storm would turn. It didn't.

 

I wasn't exactly seated. I left our safe room to find a river flowing down the hall from my bedroom. I went into the back room and (very stupidly) stuck my head out a broken window into the storm. Then something hit and broke the window next to me and I retreated.

 

I figured that when (not if) the house finished disintegrating, I could climb into my van in the garage and squeeze myself under the rear bench seats, hoping the seat frames would protect me when the garage crushed the van.

 

When that's your best plan, you've REALLY fucked up. Never again. As long as I have a working vehicle, no hurricane will ever catch me again.

 

 

AND THAT*** is the real deal. Someone who has actually experienced the screaming specters just outside the walls of your creaking house and felt the whole house move in the gusts. There is a later post fro Publius that is also spot on. Lots of debris in the streets including framing and roofing nails, broken glass and splintered wood. Good luck trying to drive back in to devastated areas without a few flat tire kits. Shovels, pick axes, crowbars and duct tape also a plus.

 

Thank you for posting sir.

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As predicted, he's intensifying. 940MB... Ugh...

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.3N 78.0W

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

Ouch, 940 mBars!!

 

Any chance of this making a change of direction and heading offshore?

 

It is always possible that storms of this magnitude will turn sooner or later than expected. They can also lose or gain strength. Matthew is struggling just a little bit with structure but once clear of the larger islands in the Bahamas there is a chance he will ramp to a category 5. Doesn't matter a lot...a Cat 4 will do tremendous damage. If Matthew becomes a top end Cat 5 (not in the official forecast) and makes landfall the destruction is difficult to imagine especially in low lying Florida. Regardless...if you are in the path and near the coast GTFO.

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As predicted, he's intensifying. 940MB... Ugh...

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.3N 78.0W

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

 

Ouch, 940 mBars!!

Any chance of this making a change of direction and heading offshore?

It is always possible that storms of this magnitude will turn sooner or later than expected. They can also lose or gain strength. Matthew is struggling just a little bit with structure but once clear of the larger islands in the Bahamas there is a chance he will ramp to a category 5. Doesn't matter a lot...a Cat 4 will do tremendous damage. If Matthew becomes a top end Cat 5 (not in the official forecast) and makes landfall the destruction is difficult to imagine especially in low lying Florida. Regardless...if you are in the path and near the coast GTFO.

Thanks Mark

 

I hope people are smart enough to GTFO, rather than try and sit it out. There will always be a few though.

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I have been through Carla, Alicia, Rita and Ike. None of those were above Cat 3 (Carla was but we were 80 miles from the eye). The noise is beyond description and seems to go on forever so forget getting any sleep. I worked for months in LA post Katrina and seeing houses sliced in half by a tree is impressive. Each time I stayed I knew there was no chance of flood and needed to be there to assist friends and family. With a direct hit from a 4 staying just isn't smart in any circumstance. Afterwards the cleanup starts with you having no sleep, it's hot and there won't be power for a week or more. In LA I met numerous people whose power was out 4 to 6 weeks.

 

In 2 of the TS's that came up quickly I went to secure friends boats and when it's a constant 50 to 60 you can't pull yourself back to the dock. Above that and it's hard to even stand up. I pulled my laser and a friends laser from the bay through waist deep water and the wind would pick them up and toss them around. I met several people who rode out Ike on their boats in the safest harbor on Clear Lake and everyone said they would never do that again. D'oh.

 

Best to everyone affected and hopes to stay safe.

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+1 on the GPS. I landed on North Eleuthera right after Andrew and Harbour Island looked totally different and I know that island like the back of my hand. I did a low pass over Chub Cay on the way home and it looked like God was pissed and wiped everything into the sea. As the sun set approaching the coast the area affected by Andrew was very obvious - Florida was pitch dark like someone took a ruler and spray painted it south of about mid-Miami.

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Directv has opened their storm channel on 205 which points to West Palm Beach channel on 361-2

 

From interviews of the folks who are staying, it looks like a match the face to the Only In Florida emails we all get.

 

Stupidity is going to get a lot of people killed in the Sunshine state.

Darwin has to be rubbing his hands together.. ;<(

 

I was able to talk my 70 yo neighbors out of a planned trip to Florida.

Took me 2.5 days as they were determined to go (She is ill and wanted to see kin one last time).

It finally clicked and they are staying put.

Whew! 2 saved..

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Seeing power and cable trucks on the road starting to head south.

Looks like the utilities are marshaling forces to restore infrastructure once Matthew has left the area.

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Stupidity is going to get a lot of people killed in the Sunshine state.

Florida is a unique place. Having lived there for a few years - you get stories in the news that you just don't get anywhere else. Drugged up naked people jumping on cars, people trying to pay for beer with live alligators.... It attracts all of the people in the country who think that its a magical tropical paradise for everyone.

 

And thats what makes them stay - many of these people see Florida as their arrival to happiness - and they are loathe to give up everything they've built there - be it a seaside mansion or an everglades trailer park.

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Check this guys FB out for video from Nassau...

https://m.facebook.com/jose.ageeb?fref=nf

 

 

"hurricane matchoo". the video of his sisters roof flying off is crazy.

 

No shit. And says: "ya, I'm not as stupid enough to go out there this time." There was a first time? Put the blithering in idiot huh? Paging Darwin!

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My sister says lines at gas stations that still have gas are a mile long...and she's in the center of state, west of Orlando. Stores everywhere are out of bottled water. I'm gonna have to grab a bottle of rum tonight...tomorrow is a stay inside day. Schools in Tampa are closed to accomodate evacuees from Orlando and east coast. Things are already a clusterfuck over there, and storm still 24 hours out.

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My family from the Palm Beach area are on their way to my mother's place in Sarasota and friends and family from Melbourne are also headed to this side of the state.

 

I'm glad they got out.

 

After a hurricane hits, your friends try to contact you and see if you're OK. Your really good friends don't contact you. They just show up bearing ice, water, chainsaws, and gasoline.

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I'm reminded of a bit from comedian Ron White about a dude who planned to ride out a hurricane tied to a big tree. "It's not *that* the wind is blowing, it's *what* the wind is blowing."



GTFO makes a lot of sense.

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My family from the Palm Beach area are on their way to my mother's place in Sarasota and friends and family from Melbourne are also headed to this side of the state.

 

I'm glad they got out.

 

After a hurricane hits, your friends try to contact you and see if you're OK. Your really good friends don't contact you. They just show up bearing beer, ice, water, chainsaws, and gasoline and beer.

Feexed!

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To add to the fun out there (?) I just saw that Nicole, who's been meandering around just South of Bermuda, has been upgraded to a hurricane. Two in October. Hmmm....

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FYI to all - *TEXT* do not CALL.

Text actual text too, not photos and emoticons. A stressed and overloaded cell network will still get a text through long after voice takes a dump.

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My family from the Palm Beach area are on their way to my mother's place in Sarasota and friends and family from Melbourne are also headed to this side of the state.

 

I'm glad they got out.

 

After a hurricane hits, your friends try to contact you and see if you're OK. Your really good friends don't contact you. They just show up bearing ice, water, chainsaws, and gasoline.

Yea, I might have to bring sis gas for their generator if their power is out more than 4 days. They have a pool, so water no problem. She's mostly stressed about 2 of her horses that have arthritis and can't be stalled for long periods. She's working on blocking a leeward barn door open so they can come and go.

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I am hoping that my 5th (top floor) condo is not on the 3rd floor when this is over. We are in Cocoa Beach with a large bullseye in the window. Since I am in currently in Chicago can't do much now and won't be able to do anything immedietly after.

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Usually despise the Weather channel for overhyping, but this one truly looks troublesome for long areas of the FL/GA/SC coast.

 

There are times when TS winds are predicted and I contemplate staying on the boat to "protect" her. This vid is a must-see:

 

(fast forward over the first few minutes until it really starts blowing)

 

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